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Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after election of left-wing governments and temporary recessions after election of right-wing ones. However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the degree of pre-electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using pre-electoral polling data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of rational partisan cycles. We also show that - in line with most previous empirical studies - there is little evidence for partisan cycles under adaptive expectations.

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.

AbstractIn this paper, we provide the first household‐level empirical multievent study of temporary internal migration as a consequence of tropical storms. In order to do, so we combine three waves of the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey with geo‐referenced tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Based on the resulting panel dataset, we study temporary emigration patterns evolving in the aftermath of occurring storms in the sample communes. We find robust empirical evidence in favor of a significant push effect on temporary migration. Occurring storms increase the likelihood that a household sends members to other regions in Vietnam. Storms also tend to increase the number of absent household members and absence time. Moreover, we show that occurring storms increase both seasonal and long‐term absences.

Abstract
Using newly available investment data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database we provide an update and an extension of the aggregate capital stock estimations provided in (Berlemann, M. and J.-E. Wesselhöft (2014): Estimating Aggregate Capital Stocks Using the Perpetual Inventory Method: A Survey of Previous Implementations and New Empirical Evidence for 103 Countries, Review of Economics 65(1), 1–34). The new database contains comparable unbalanced panel data for 122 countries and the period of 1960 to 2016.

Abstract
Almost all attempts to construct capital stock data base on some variant of the Perpetual Inventory Method. While various countries employ this method to construct suitable proxies of national capital stocks, the implementation and the underlying assumptions differ considerably, thereby rendering the results internationally incomparable. Only a few attempts to construct internationally comparable capital stock data have yet been undertaken in the scientific literature. In this paper we outline the idea of the Perpetual Inventory Method and deliver a survey of previous implementations of the method. Based on a critical assessment of these implementations we propose a unified approach and construct estimations of aggregate capital stocks for the 1970 to 2010 period for 103 countries.

This article focuses on the role of unionized members in parliament. Unions have not been successful in increasing their monopoly power during the last decades in the US. Similarly, a recent study for Germany comes to the result that union members in the Bundestag cannot be seen as the parliamentary arm of the trade unions. However, we present contradicting empirical results by showing that the degree of unionization of parliamentary members has a negative impact on economic growth and increases inflation while unemployment remains unaffected. Thus, at least German trade unions do not seem to be as weak at the parliamentary stage as they often claim to be.

This article focuses on the role of unionized members of the parliament. Referring to the famous study by Freeman and Medoff (1984) and considering the more recent literature we first review unions' political power at the example of the US. We conclude that trade unions have not been very successful in increasing its monopoly power during the last decades. We then study in how far similar results can be found in Europe, where the degree of unionization is considerably higher than in the US. A recent study by Hönigsberger (2008) for Germany basically concludes union members to overwhelmingly stick to their duties as representatives and thus cannot be seen as the parliamentary arm of the trade unions. However, we present contradicting empirical results, based on a newly constructed dataset for Germany. In a VAR analysis we find that the degree of unionization of parliamentary members has a negative impact on economic growth and at the same time increases inflation while detrended unemployment remains unaffected. The effects are stable even after controlling for partisan politics. Thus, at least in Germany trade unions do not seem to be as weak as they tend to claim.

This article focuses on the role of unionized members of the parliament. Referring to the famous study by Freeman and Medoff (1984) and considering the more recent literature we first review unions' political power at the example of the US. We conclude that trade unions have not been very successful in increasing its monopoly power during the last decades. We then study in how far similar results can be found in Europe, where the degree of unionization is considerably higher than in the US. A recent study by Hönigsberger (2008) for Germany basically concludes union members to overwhelmingly stick to their duties as representatives and thus cannot be seen as the parliamentary arm of the trade unions. However, we present contradicting empirical results, based on a newly constructed dataset for Germany. In a VAR analysis we find that the degree of unionization of parliamentary members has a negative impact on economic growth and at the same time increases inflation while detrended unemployment remains unaffected. The effects are stable even after controlling for partisan politics. Thus, at least in Germany trade unions do not seem to be as weak as they tend to claim.