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AbstractEconomic prosperity is the best recipe for an incumbent government to be re‐elected. However, the financial crisis was significantly more consequential for governing parties in young rather than in established democracies. This article introduces the age of democracy as a contextual explanation which moderates the degree to which citizens vote retrospectively. It shows a curvilinear effect of the age of democracy on retrospective economic voting. In a first stage after the transition to democracy, reform governments suffer from a general anti‐incumbency effect, unrelated to economic performance. In a second step, citizens in young democracies relate the legitimacy of democratic actors to their economic performance rather than to procedural rules, and connect economic outcomes closely to incumbent support. As democracies mature, actors profit from a reservoir of legitimacy, and retrospective voting declines. Empirically, these hypotheses are corroborated by data on vote change and economic performance in 59 democracies worldwide, over 25 years.

Ethnicity remains one of the most salient layers of individuals' social identities, and information about the distribution of ethnic identities turns out to be crucial for many studies that investigate political or social processes in divided societies. In the aftermath of civil wars, however, censuses providing such data are controversial and often delayed. Where census data are lacking, researchers can make use of the multiplier method to infer the distribution of ethnic identities based on indirect observations from sub-samples of the population. However, due to the selective nature of their data, the sub-samples might not be representative of the population. This paper proposes a method, which corrects for such selection effects. Based on the ethnic identity of birth-giving parents, the authors estimate the distribution of ethnic identities in the municipalities of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina for 2008–2010. They correct for possible selection biases by including economic, demographic and war-related variables. Multiple tests of validity show that this estimation appears to be the most accurate procedure currently available for the distribution of ethnic identities in municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Integrity of elections relies on fair procedures at different stages of the election process, and fraud can occur in many instances and different forms. This paper provides a general approach for the detection of fraud. While most existing contributions focus on a single instance and form of fraud, we propose a more encompassing approach, testing for several empirical implications of different possible forms of fraud. To illustrate this approach we rely on a case of electoral irregularities in one of the oldest democracies: In a Swiss referendum in 2011, one in twelve municipalities irregularly destroyed the ballots, rendering a recount impossible. We do not know whether this happened due to sloppiness, or to cover possible fraudulent actions. However, one of our statistical tests leads to results, which point to irregularities in some of the municipalities, which lost their ballots: they reported significantly fewer empty ballots than the other municipalities. Relying on several tests leads to the well known multiple comparisons problem. We show two strategies and illustrate strengths and weaknesses of each potential way to deal with multiple tests. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]