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Drawing on several theories of congressional election change, this article presents a forecasting equation for seat change in U.S. House elections. The equation addresses the problem of the over time comparability of seat change when levels of competition at the congressional district level have declined dramatically, a decline that has substantially reduced the magnitude of net partisan seat change in recent decades. The equation is estimated using both on-year and midterm elections since 1944. It indicates that the 2006 midterm will likely be a good year for the Democrats. However, because of reduced levels of competition restricting the number of seats that are effectively "in play," Democratic Party gains are likely to be in the teens. Though Republicans may narrowly retain their control of the House, there is a very real possibility that Democrats will end the six election string of Republican House majorities.

Drawing on several theories of congressional election change, this article presents a forecasting equation for seat change in U.S. House elections. The equation addresses the problem of the over time comparability of seat change when levels of competition at the congressional district level have declined dramatically, a decline that has substantially reduced the magnitude of net partisan seat change in recent decades. The equation is estimated using both on-year & midterm elections since 1944. It indicates that the 2006 midterm will likely be a good year for the Democrats. However, because of reduced levels of competition restricting the number of seats that are effectively 'in play,' Democratic Party gains are likely to be in the teens. Though Republicans may narrowly retain their control of the House, there is a very real possibility that Democrats will end the six election string of Republican House majorities. Adapted from the source document.

Presidential elections are largely structured by certain fundamentals that are in place before the campaigns begin. These are the public's opinion about the in-party & the candidate choice, the general state of the election-year economy, & incumbency. This trinity of fundamentals have in various ways been incorporated into statistical models that accurately forecast the major party division of the popular vote well before Election Day. This article examines the historical associations between several indicators of these fundamental forces & the national vote. It also examines the state of these indicators in the 2004 presidential election. They indicate that the fundamentals leading into the 2004 campaign generally favored George W. Bush & anticipated his re-election. 2 Tables, 2 Figures, 20 References. Adapted from the source document.

Evaluates the results from a forecasting model constructed from trail-heat, economy, & Gallup polls before the Republican Convention & offers possible reasons why the results may have differed from the actual vote. 1 Table, 6 References.

On Labor Day, 57 days before the election, using the Gallup poll's division of likely
voters and GDP growth during the second quarter of the year, the trial-heat and economy
forecasting model predicted that George W. Bush would receive 53.8% of the two-party popular
vote (Campbell 2004a). Out of concerns about relying too heavily on a single poll and the
possible complications associated with the Republican Convention running right up to the
Labor Day weekend, a companion model based on the pre-convention Gallup poll, the net
convention poll bump, and the economy was constructed. It forecast a slightly closer
election, with a Bush vote of 52.8%.

Introduces a symposium, "Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Vote Forecasts," comparatively evaluating election forecasts in the 2004 US presidential election as assessed in the following seven essays. For the most part, 2004 was good news for the forecast models applied.