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Population programmes have political dimensions-and political problems often have demographic roots. But just how do politics and population interact?

This paper describes the recent trends in migration throughout the Middle East, identifying the major implications of this movement, and isolating the critical policy issues for both Egypt and other Arab states. The author argues that international migration in the Middle East harbors political and economic effects that may be potentially explosive. It is demonstrated that current migration related policies may be counter-productive for all parties concerned. This paper highlights the emergence of new issues in Middle East politics without attempting a detailed analysis of their many facets.

Popular views of the Middle East tend to concentrate on the cultural homogeneity of the Arab states, their conflict with Israel, and the dispute over petroleum prices. Yet in recent years a new issue has emerged that may well dominate regional politics in the years to come, giving rise to problems with both economic and political ramifications. That issue is the increased migration of Egyptian workers—skilled and unskilled—to other Arab states and their importance to development program and plans for social change. The volume of this migration and its consequences for regional politics are only dimly foreseen. Indeed, the very magnitude of that movement is itself in question, given the paucity of recorded data, conflicting reports, and political incentives for inaccurate representation. But there is every indication that it transcends narrow demographic concerns and will exert a powerful influence on relations among the Arab countries.

This paper describes the recent trends in migration throughout the Middle East, identifying the major implications of this movement, and isolating the critical policy issues for both Egypt and other Arab states. The author argues that international migration in the Middle East harbors political and economic effects that may be potentially explosive. It is demonstrated that current migration related policies may be counter-productive for all parties concerned. This paper highlights the emergence of new issues in Middle East politics without attempting a detailed analysis of their many facets.

While it is generally recognized that excessive population growth places severe strains upon the environment, there is also some reason to believe that population levels and rates of increase may be important elements affecting national' power, war and peace, and the nature of social and political organization. This paper will attempt to evaluate existing evidence concerning the political implications of population dynamics, note areas of ambiguity and suggest possible avenues for further research.

"This volume by Professor Nazli Choucri constitutes a rare effort to explore in a systematic way the connection between outbreaks of violence in international relations and the population dynamics of the system. This book represents a first step toward regaining lost ground; it carries on an informed exploration of a critically important corner of the field, and equally laudably, it presents its material in such a manner that the bulk of the findings form a natural point of departure for new research." A. F. K. Organski, The American Political Science Review ; This volume is divided into three parts. Part I is based on an exhaustive study of the literature dealing directly and indirectly with the relations between population dynamics and international violence. Part II focuses entirely on empirical materials gathered from an examination of violence in the developing world and seeks to explore systematically whether population changes have influenced the beginnings or the outcomes of violent conflicts. Part III consists of a review of major themes, a section of concluding statements, and a short chapter given over to discussion of issues of policy and research in the field connecting demographic and political behavior.

The apparent neglect of quantitative methodology in political analysis can be explained partly by the absence of a common paradigm or frame of reference for political inquiry and partly by the lack of experience with experimental analysis of empirical data. The absence of general theory poses considerable difficulties for analysis and for specifying the nature of expected relationships or outcomes. For example, without a good theory of war, it is difficult to explain, account for, and predict wars among nations as well as to forecast the probable range of casualties, the extent or duration of violence, geographical scope, and so forth. And the absence of sufficient experience with quantitative analysis poses equally numerous difficulties bearing upon our ability to go beyond purely descriptive modes of inquiry. For example, without sound analytical and computational tools it is difficult to develop empirical models, or simulations, or forecasts of such dynamics. This paper examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the consequences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error.

Examen de l'orientation politique Internationale de trois Etats afro-asiatiques au milieu des années 1950 et au début des années 1960—période importante dans l'établissement de leur position Internationale d'aujourd'hui—avec une insistance particulière sur l'interaction entre la politique officielle, les attitudes des leaders nationaux et les comportements politiques au jour le jour. Les Etats qui font l'objet de l'étude sont l'Inde, l'Egypte et l'Indonésie. Elle s'applique (1) à clarifier le contenu de la politique, ses perceptions et le comportement effectif, (2) à établir les rapports entre ces trois dimensions d'une direction nationale en politique étrangère, et (3) à préciser le degré de variation des perceptions et du comportement d'un Etat à l'autre. Le contenu de la politique se détermine par une analyse qualitative des déclarations officielles; on saisit les perceptions par une analyse automatisée de contenu des discours que prononcèrent Nehru, Nasser et Soukarno lors de conférences afro-asiatiques spécialement importantes; le comportement se dégage d'une analyse quantitative des relations avec les grandes puissances. Les résultats montrent que les trois pays nonalignés ne manifestent aucune partialité envers le monde libre ou les pays communistés, ni qu'ils aient une orientation favorable à l'égard de l'Est ou de l'Ouest. A l'examen des politiques communes des trois pays à l'égard des grandes puissances on aboutit aux mêmes conclusions. Toutefois, l'Inde et l'Indonésie font montre d'une meilleure coopération avec l'Ouest que l'Egypte dont l'activité politique s'affronte davantage à celle de l'Ouest qu'à celle de l'Est. Ces résultats n'entament pas nécessairement la nature du nonalignement afro-asiatique mais signalent l'importance d'une réévaluation du rôle de cette politique dans le système international d'aujourd'hui.