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Derived from the 2001 Santa Fe Institute Conference, "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System III," represents scholarship from the leading figures in th area of economics and complexity. The subject, a perennial centerpiece of the SFI program of studies has gained a wide range of followers for its methods of employing empirical evidence in the development of analytical economic theories. Accordingly, the chapters in this volume addresses a wide variety of issues in the fields of economics and complexity, accessing eclectic techniques from many disciplines, provided that they shed

This paper contributes to the policy evaluation literature by developing new strategies to study alternative policy rules. We compare optimal rules to simple rules within canonical monetary policy models. In our context, an optimal rule represents the solution to an intertemporal optimization problem in which a loss function for the policymaker and an explicit model of the macroeconomy are specified. We define a simple rule to be a summary of the intuition policymakers and economists have about how a central bank should react to aggregate disturbances. The policy rules are evaluated under minimax and minimax regret criteria. These criteria force the policymaker to guard against a worst-case scenario, but in different ways. Minimax makes the worst possible model the benchmark for the policymaker, while minimax regret confronts the policymaker with uncertainty about the true model. Our results indicate that the case for a model-specific optimal rule can break down when uncertainty exists about which of several models is true. Further, we show that the assumption that the policymaker's loss function is known can obscure policy trade-offs that exist in the short, medium, and long run. Thus, policy evaluation is more difficult once it is recognized that model and preference uncertainty can interact.

Verlagsinfo: Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 7A, examines recent advances in foundational issues and "hot" topics within econometrics, such as inference for moment inequalities and estimation of high dimensional models. With its world-class editors and contributors, it succeeds in unifying leading studies of economic models, mathematical statistics and economic data. Our flourishing ability to address empirical problems in economics by using economic theory and statistical methods has driven the field of econometrics to unimaginable places. By designing methods of inference from data based on models of human choice behavior and social interactions, econometricians have created new subfields now sufficiently mature to require sophisticated literature summaries

This book is a collection of essays written in honor of Professor Peter C. B. Phillips of Yale University by some of his former students. The essays analyze a number of important issues in econometrics, all of which Professor Phillips has directly influenced through his seminal scholarly contribution as well as through his remarkable achievements as a teacher. The essays are organized to cover topics in higher-order asymptotics, deficient instruments, nonstationary, LAD and quantile regression, and nonstationary panels. These topics span both theoretical and applied approaches and are intended for use by professionals and advanced graduate students