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The sea level variation (SLVtotal) is the sum of two major contributions: steric and mass-induced. The steric SLVsteric is that resulting from the thermal and salinity changes in a given water column. It only involves volume change, hence has no gravitational effect. The mass-induced SLVmass, on the other hand, arises from adding or subtracting water mass to or from the water column and has direct gravitational signature. We examine the closure of the seasonal SLV budget and estimate the relative importance of the two contributions in the Mediterranean Sea as a function of time. We use ocean altimetry data (from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, ERS, and ENVISAT missions) to estimate SLVtotal, temperature, and salinity data (from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean ocean model) to estimate SLVsteric, and time variable gravity data (from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Project, April 2002 to July 2004) to estimate SLVmass. We find that the annual cycle of SLVtotal in the Mediterranean is mainly driven by SLVsteric but moderately offset by SLVmass. The agreement between the seasonal SLVmass estimations from SLVtotal – SLVsteric and from GRACE is quite remarkable; the annual cycle reaches the maximum value in mid-February, almost half a cycle later than SLVtotal or SLVsteric, which peak by mid-October and mid-September, respectively. Thus, when sea level is rising (falling), the Mediterranean Sea is actually losing (gaining) mass. Furthermore, as SLVmass is balanced by vertical (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) and horizontal (exchange of water with the Atlantic, Black Sea, and river runoff) mass fluxes, we compared it with the P–E determined from meteorological data to estimate the annual cycle of the horizontal flux. ; The authors thank NASA Pathfinder project and Andrew Au for assistance in data processing. The altimeter products were produced by the CLS Space Oceanography Division as part of the Environment and Climate EU ENACT project (EVK2-CT2001-00117) and with support from CNES. GRACE data are provided by the NASA/DLR GRACE Project via the Center for Space Research website in the University of Texas at Austin. The ECCO model is a contribution of the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean funded by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. This work, as part of the lead author's Ph.D. dissertation, is supported by the Spanish Science and Technology Ministry Projects ESP2001-4533/PE, ESP2005-02212 and REN2003- 01608/MAR, by the Valencian regional government grant ACOMP06-120, and by NASA's Physical Oceanography Program.

Abstract
Increased sharing of untrustworthy information on social media platforms is one of the main challenges of our modern information society. Because information disseminated by political elites is known to shape citizen and media discourse, it is particularly important to examine the quality of information shared by politicians. Here, we show that from 2016 onward, members of the Republican Party in the US Congress have been increasingly sharing links to untrustworthy sources. The proportion of untrustworthy information posted by Republicans versus Democrats is diverging at an accelerating rate, and this divergence has worsened since President Biden was elected. This divergence between parties seems to be unique to the United States as it cannot be observed in other western democracies such as Germany and the United Kingdom, where left–right disparities are smaller and have remained largely constant.

Abstract
Background Indirect carotid–cavernous fistulas (iCCFs) are shunts between meningeal branches of the internal carotid and/or the external carotid arteries and the cavernous sinus. They account for 83% of all carotid–cavernous fistulas (CCFs). Symptomatic iCCFs and those with increased risk of hemorrhage should be treated. Transvenous endovascular treatment is the preferred treatment modality. However, in complex cases, a combination of transarterial and transvenous approaches (multimodal treatment) is required.
Methods A middle-aged woman presented with signs of increased intraocular pressure, blurry vision, diplopia, left proptosis, chemosis, conjunctival injection, ptosis, and cranial nerve VI palsy. Imaging confirmed the presence of a Barrow type D and Thomas type 4 iCCF with cortical venous reflux (CVR).
Results The patient underwent transarterial and transvenous onyx embolization of the shunt, achieving a complete obliteration of the fistula. No complications occurred and the patient had a satisfactory postprocedural evolution.
Conclusion Multimodal onyx embolization is an effective option for the treatment of a complex symptomatic iCCF. If CVR is identified, these lesions should be promptly treated to prevent hemorrhage secondary to rupture.

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG ; The history of modern humans in the Iberian Peninsula includes a variety of population arrivals sometimes presenting admixture with resident populations. Genetic data from current Iberian populations revealed an overall east–west genetic gradient that some authors interpreted as a direct consequence of the Reconquista, where Catholic Kingdoms expanded their territories toward the south while displacing Muslims. However, this interpretation has not been formally evaluated. Here, we present a qualitative analysis of the causes of the current genetic gradient observed in the Iberian Peninsula using extensive spatially explicit computer simulations based on a variety of evolutionary scenarios. Our results indicate that the Neolithic range expansion clearly produces the orientation of the observed genetic gradient. Concerning the Reconquista (including political borders among Catholic Kingdoms and regions with different languages), if modeled upon a previous Neolithic expansion, it effectively favored the orientation of the observed genetic gradient and shows local isolation of certain regions (i.e., Basques and Galicia). Despite additional evolutionary scenarios could be evaluated to more accurately decipher the causes of the Iberian genetic gradient, here we show that this gradient has a more complex explanation than that previously hypothesized. ; Fundación BBVA | Ref. Becas Leonardo a Investigadores y Creadores Culturales 2019 ; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) | Ref. RYC-2015-18241 ; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BD/143607/2019 ; Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

The history of modern humans in the Iberian Peninsula includes a variety of population arrivals sometimes presenting admixture with resident populations. Genetic data from current Iberian populations revealed an overall east–west genetic gradient that some authors interpreted as a direct consequence of the Reconquista, where Catholic Kingdoms expanded their territories toward the south while displacing Muslims. However, this interpretation has not been formally evaluated. Here, we present a qualitative analysis of the causes of the current genetic gradient observed in the Iberian Peninsula using extensive spatially explicit computer simulations based on a variety of evolutionary scenarios. Our results indicate that the Neolithic range expansion clearly produces the orientation of the observed genetic gradient. Concerning the Reconquista (including political borders among Catholic Kingdoms and regions with different languages), if modeled upon a previous Neolithic expansion, it effectively favored the orientation of the observed genetic gradient and shows local isolation of certain regions (i.e., Basques and Galicia). Despite additional evolutionary scenarios could be evaluated to more accurately decipher the causes of the Iberian genetic gradient, here we show that this gradient has a more complex explanation than that previously hypothesized. ; Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUG ; Fundación BBVA | Ref. Becas Leonardo a Investigadores y Creadores Culturales 2019 ; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) | Ref. RYC-2015-18241 ; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BD/143607/2019 ; Universidade de Vigo/CISUG

Purpose: We examined how socioenvironmental risk factors unique to the United States-Mexico border, defined as border community and immigration stress, normalization of drug trafficking, and perceived disordered neighborhood stress, contribute to tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use among adolescents residing there. Design: Cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted at a high school on the United States-Mexico border. Subjects: A sample of 445 primarily Hispanic students (ages 14-18). Measure: Perceived Disordered Neighborhood Stress Scale, Border Community and Immigration Stress Scale, and Normalization of Drug Trafficking Scale. Analysis: Logistic regression assessed the association between the socioenvironmental risk factors and past 30-day tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use. Results: Participants with higher border community and immigration stress scores were significantly more likely to have used tobacco (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.41, P < .01) and alcohol (aOR = 1.31, P < .01) in the past 30 days. Perceived disordered neighborhood stress also was associated with past 30-day alcohol use (aOR = 1.46, P < .00). The normalization of drug trafficking was associated with past 30-day marijuana use (aOR = 1.45, P < .05). Conclusions: Public health practitioners, educational institutions, and policy makers should consider the economic and normative environment of the United States-Mexico border for future substance use prevention and risk reduction efforts targeting border adolescents.

Online freelancing marketplaces have grown quickly in recent years. In theory, these sites offer workers the ability to earn money without the obligations and potential social biases associated with traditional employment frameworks. In this paper, we study whether two prominent online freelance marketplaces - TaskRabbit and Fiverr - are impacted by racial and gender bias. From these two platforms, we collect 13,500 worker profiles and gather information about workers' gender, race, customer reviews, ratings, and positions in search rankings. In both marketplaces, we find evidence of bias: we find that gender and race are significantly correlated with worker evaluations, which could harm the employment opportunities afforded to the workers. We hope that our study fuels more research on the presence and implications of discrimination in online environments.

Objective: To identify what is important to middle-aged Latino men and their personal goals and values as foundations for a future precision lifestyle medicine intervention that is rooted in Self-Determination Theory.Design: We used a phenomenological, thematic approach to analyze data from 20 semi-structured, individual interviews with Latino men aged 35-60 years.Setting: Community-based settings between November 2017 and May 2018 in South Florida.Participants: Latino or Hispanic men who were aged 35-60 years. The mean age of the men was 49.8 years.Results: Two key themes emerged: a) the characteristics that these men say define what it means to be a man; and b) the characteristics that these men say define what is important to them. "What defines a man" includes three primary subthemes: a) the attributes, characteristics and behaviors that participants understood to be ideals that a man should embody and the roles he should fulfill; b) lessons learned growing up about what it means to be a man; and c) how Latino men relate to the ideal of machismo. "What defines me" includes the subthemes: a) comparing themselves with the ideal of machismo; b) caring for family and others; and c) supporting and modeling positive behavior for their children.Conclusions: We found key candidate mechanisms that may be novel yet critical foundations on which to build a precision lifestyle medicine intervention for Latino men. We identified actionable psycho­social factors that map onto motivational constructs that can shape behaviors that are essential for weight control and be a useful foundation for improving the health of middle-aged Latino men. Ethn Dis. 2020;30(Suppl 1):203-210; doi:10.18865/ed.30.S1.203

Abstract
Background Scalp arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are a rare vascular disease usually presenting as a progressively increasing pulsating mass in the scalp. These lesions can be associated with mild to severe complications, including congestive heart failure. If ruptures, this pathology constitutes a life-threatening medical emergency because of its potential to cause severe bleeding and acute anemia.
Methods We describe the case of a young woman with a ruptured Yokouchi type C scalp AVF with eyelid involvement.
Results The patient presented with hypovolemic shock and acute anemia due to severe bleeding from the lesion. Emergent treatment through a combined endovascular and open surgical approach was required to stop bleeding and stabilize the patient.
Conclusions Emergent and effective treatment is required to stop bleeding when a scalp AVF ruptures. A combination of endovascular embolization and microsurgical excision of the shunt is a treatment option.

Political scientists have conventionally assumed that achieving democracy is a one-way ratchet. Only very recently has the question of "democratic backsliding" attracted any research attention. We argue that democratic instability is best understood with tools from complexity science. The explanatory power of complexity science arises from several features of complex systems. Their relevance in the context of democracy is discussed. Several policy recommendations are offered to help (re)stabilize current systems of representative democracy. ; (VLID)5394457

Political scientists have conventionally assumed that achieving democracy is a one-way ratchet. Only very recently has the question of "democratic backsliding" attracted any research attention. We argue that democratic instability is best understood with tools from complexity science. The explanatory power of complexity science arises from several features of complex systems. Their relevance in the context of democracy is discussed. Several policy recommendations are offered to help (re)stabilize current systems of representative democracy. ; ISSN:2662-9992

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast. ; A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social breakdown, Recovery and Resilience ; publishedVersion

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast. ; A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social breakdown, Recovery and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.