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We examine the notion of a "bellwether" location in the electoral political context. Bellwethers are thought to have predictive power because they supposedly signal how the entire electorate will move on election day. We consider how the number of bellwether counties—defined in several ways—has fluctuated since the 1930s. We also explore the extent to which bellwethers successfully predict future elections. With the proliferation of geographic polarization, few counties can successively and successfully pick the winner of presidential elections. Other bellwether measures fare slightly better or worse, but as Tufte and Sun (1975) found nearly half a century ago, bellwethers today continue to be poor predictors of future performance.

In research on American politics, the use of geographic information systems (GIS) is most often thought of in connection with redistricting and the study of election results. In the past ten years, political scientists have realized that GIS can help them address many research questions and data analysis tasks quite apart from these traditional applications. These include the analysis of point patterns and the detection of clustering; the study of diffusion of influence; and the measurement of spatial relationships involving key constructs such as proximity and distance, flow, and interaction. GIS tools also prove to be the exploratory complements to the suite of tools being used in spatial econometrics to test explicit hypotheses about the impact of geography and spatial arrangement on political outcomes. Adapted from the source document.

We examine spatial patterns of mass political participation in the form of volunteering and donating to a major statewide election campaign. While these forms of participation are predictably associated with the political and socioeconomic characteristics of the precincts in which the participants reside, we find that these statistical relationships are spatially nonstationary. High-income neighborhoods, for example, are associated with stronger effects on participation at some locations more than at others. By using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to specify local regression parameters, we are able to capture the heterogeneity of contextual processes that generate the geographically uneven flow of volunteers and contributors into a political campaign. Since spatial nonstationarity may well be a rule rather than an exception in the study of many political phenomena, social scientific analyses should be mindful that relationships may vary by location. Adapted from the source document.

We examine variations in the impact of several components of economic hardship on the 2008 presidential vote by county. High gas prices, mounting foreclosures, and rising unemployment all enhance the Democratic vote share in areas critical to winning an Electoral College majority. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), however, we show the varying impact of these forces, controlling for previous Democratic voting, race, age, and income. Economic problems do not produce anything like a uniform response, and not merely because they are geographically uneven in their intensity. Some populations hit by economic downturn would not have voted for the incumbent's party under any circumstances, while others supported the in-party in spite of hard times. Even so, the combined weight of rising jobless claims and escalating foreclosures was sufficiently unsettling in key states to make for an early call on Election Night.

We examine variations in the impact of several components of economic hardship on the 2008 presidential vote by county. High gas prices, mounting foreclosures, and rising unemployment all enhance the Democratic vote share in areas critical to winning an Electoral College majority. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), however, we show the varying impact of these forces, controlling for previous Democratic voting, race, age, and income. Economic problems do not produce anything like a uniform response, and not merely because they are geographically uneven in their intensity. Some populations hit by economic downturn would not have voted for the incumbent's party under any circumstances, while others supported the in-party in spite of hard times. Even so, the combined weight of rising jobless claims and escalating foreclosures was sufficiently unsettling in key states to make for an early call on Election Night. Adapted from the source document.

Campaigns and political parties are faced with the immensely important practical challenge of financing their efforts. Raising money is instrumental to all other aims. In recent years, this task has been complicated by the need to enlist ever greater numbers of contributors to raise ever larger sums of money. At the same time, fundraising burdens are eased a bit because contributors flock together. That is, campaign contributing is a spatially dependent phenomenon, associated with affluence and the presence of networks. Accordingly, geospatial tools provide a helpful method for understanding and predicting where contributions can be most successfully mined.

Campaigns and political parties are faced with the immensely important practical challenge of financing their efforts. Raising money is instrumental to all other aims. In recent years, this task has been complicated by the need to enlist ever greater numbers of contributors to raise ever larger sums of money. At the same time, fundraising burdens are eased a bit because contributors flock together. That is, campaign contributing is a spatially dependent phenomenon, associated with affluence and the presence of networks. Accordingly, geospatial tools provide a helpful method for understanding and predicting where contributions can be most successfully mined. Adapted from the source document.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 429-456) and indexes. ; Introduction: federalism, political identity, and American state politics -- Going inside states: the geography of local political behavior -- State politics and presidential voting, 1988---2000 -- California -- Florida -- Texas -- Colorado -- Minnesota -- Georgia -- Connecticut -- Maryland -- Oregon -- Michigan -- Illinois -- Sectionalism and political change in the states -- Appendix A. The challenge of ecological inference -- Appendix B. Complete ecological inference estimates, by state -- Appendix C. Complete voter transition results, by state. ; Mode of access: Internet.