Suchergebnisse

The wave of upbeat stories on the developing world's emerging middle class has reinvigorated a debate on how social class in general and the middle class in particular ought to be defined and empirically measured. With the aim of adding clarity to this debate, this dissertation provides a structured overview of a wide array of definitions of the middle class that have been suggested in the economics literature, and assesses their strengths and shortcomings using South Africa as a case study. Contrary to most standard approaches in the economic realm, the main argument this dissertation make...

Analyzing the poverty and distributional impact of macro events requires understanding how shocks or policy changes on the macro level affect household income and consumption. It is clear that this poses a formidable task, which of course raises the question of the appropriate methodology to address such questions. This paper presents one possible approach: A sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic model with a behavioral micro-simulation. We discuss the merits and shortcomings of this approach with a focus on developing country applications with a short to medium run time horizon. - This chapter is a re-print of: Lay, J. (2010). Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations. International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 24-34.

ResumenLos indicadores actuales de los ODM sobre empleo presentan deficiencias importantes, como problemas de medición, uso inadecuado de estadísticas agregadas, ambigüedad interpretativa y supuestos de base no aplicables a los países en desarrollo. Tratando de superar estos problemas, los autores proponen cuatro nuevos indicadores de empleo productivo y trabajo decente: el crecimiento de la contribución del trabajo al valor añadido por trabajador, la tasa de trabajadores pobres y los porcentajes de trabajadores que ganan menos de un ingreso laboral mínimo absoluto y relativo (el 60 por ciento de la mediana del ingreso laboral). Aplican empíricamente estos indicadores a los casos de Uganda y Perú.

AbstractThe MDG employment indicators suffer from major shortcomings, including measurement problems, inappropriate use of aggregate statistics, ambiguous interpretability, and assumptions that do not apply to developing countries. Based on this critique, the authors propose a new set of four indicators for productive employment and decent work, namely: the growth of labour value added per worker, the working poverty rate, the share of workers receiving less than an absolute minimum labour income, and the share of workers receiving less than 60 per cent of the median labour income. They demonstrate the empirical application of these indicators using the country cases of Uganda and Peru.

RésuméLes indicateurs associés aux objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement présentent plusieurs lacunes: des problèmes de mesure et d'interprétation, l'utilisation de données agrégées et des hypothèses inadaptées aux pays en développement. Les auteurs proposent par conséquent quatre nouveaux indicateurs de l'emploi productif et du travail décent: l'augmentation de la part du travail dans la valeur ajoutée par těte, le taux de travailleurs pauvres et la proportion de travailleurs qui perçoivent un revenu inférieur à un minimum donné, fixé en valeur absolue d'abord puis à 60 pour cent du revenu du travail médian. Deux cas d'espèce – Ouganda et Pérou – illustrent l'application pratique de ces indicateurs.

This paper investigates the dynamics of the informal sector in Madagascar during a period of fragile growth. Overall, the behavior of informal firms in terms of earnings, employment and capital accumulation points to a degree of heterogeneity which goes beyond a simple dualistic model and even a more refined model that would distinguish between an upper entrepreneurial and a lower subsistence tier within the informal sector. However, in line with the dualistic model, the informal sector indeed fulfills a labor absorbing function in times of crisis. During the growth period authors see capital accumulation in most of the sectors and lots of evidence that households expand their activities. However, this happens mainly through the creation of new firms instead of the expansion of existing ones, which is consistent with much higher returns at very low levels of capital. More rapid expansion can be observed in sectors that operate with lower capital intensity, which is also consistent with risk or credit constraints as major deterrents to expansion. While there is some indication that total factor productivity increased over time, returns to capital and labor where not higher at the end of the observation period than at the beginning. Returns are also rather low at high levels of capital. These findings point to a limited growth potential of the informal sector as a whole. The heterogeneity in capital returns hints at large inefficiencies in allocating capital across informal firms.

In the past two decades, research on the informal sector has emphasized the heterogeneity of this part of the economy, example in terms of entry costs, firm size, and access to credit, forward- and backward linkages as well as human and physical capital endowments. Yet, not much research has investigated the causes of this heterogeneity and the implied inefficiencies. This is true in particular for Sub-Saharan Africa, where informality dominates urban labor markets. Understanding these causes and the implied inefficiencies is however necessary to design policy interventions that are able to remove the most binding constraints for informal entrepreneurs. This note summarizes the main findings and policy conclusions from a research project that analyzes the quantitative importance of various constraints to informal enterprises in West Africa and Madagascar.