Suchergebnisse

Recent changes in partisan support suggest the beginning of a new group basis for the party coalitions. For the Republicans, the changes define group support more sharply than has been the case for many years—a combination of southern whites and a strong religious base of Catholics, regular church‐goers, and Protestant fundamentalists. For Democrats, the changes are defined in terms of losses—of Catholic, union household, and regular church‐going voters—not sufficiently offset by the increased support of women and the growing Hispanic population. The problem for Republicans is to maintain and enhance a heterogeneous coalition, including a fragile religious combination. The problem for Democrats is to find new coalition partners or regain support that the party has lost.

Describes the variation in ballot designs across the states, and some problems of individual state designs; recommendations.

The article updates the authors' multivariate analysis of group support for political parties through 1988 and expands it to new groups, midterm election years, and Republican identifiers. Shown in detail are the changes in long-term components of the party coalitions and the partisan tendencies of newly prominent groups such as Hispanics and religious fundamentalists. There are three general findings. First, the greatest movement is away from the New Deal Democratic coalition but not into the Republican coalition; Republicans have yet to find a strong basis of group support. Second, and of more theoretical import, is that changes in party support occur slowly, suggesting that group realignments have been characterized by secular decline and advance rather than by abrupt, "critical" elections. Finally, the newest groups tend not to be so closely aligned to parties as are the older groups, perhaps both a cause and consequence of the present candidate-centered party system.