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In this paper, we analyze the reactions of European economies to a fiscal policy strategy aiming at diminishing the public sector. Within the framework of the MSG3 model, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, we perform several simulation experiments to explore the effects of reducing government expenditures permanently in different phases of the business cycle. For this purpose, we combine the fiscal contraction with negative and positive, Euro Area-wide and global, supply and demand shocks. It turns out that adverse Keynesian effects on output and employment tend to be mostly weak and short-lived, whereas long-run effects on output and employment are favorable. Due to these long-run effects, the fiscal contraction policy raises welfare as measured by an asymmetric quadratic objective function. The size of these welfare effects depends on the initial situation in a non-trivial manner.

AbstractIn this paper, we examine the sensitivity of the results of an earlier paper which presented and analyzed a dynamic game model of a monetary union with coalitions between governments (fiscal policy makers) and a common central bank (monetary policy maker). Here we examine alternative values of the parameters of the underlying model to show how the earlier results depend on the numerical parameter values chosen, which were obtained by calibration instead of econometric estimation. We demonstrate that the main results are qualitatively the same as in the original model for plausible smaller and larger values of the parameters. For the few cases where they differ, we interpret the deviations in economic terms and illustrate the policies and their macroeconomic effects resulting from the change to the parameter under consideration for one of these cases.

In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of demand- and supply-side fiscal policies in the small open economy of Slovenia. Simulating the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effectiveness of various categories of public spending and taxes during the period 2020 to 2030, assuming that no crisis occurs. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. This is due to the fact that supply-side measures also increase potential and not only actual GDP. Measures which foster research and development and those which improve the education level of the labour force are particularly effective in this respect. Employment can also be stimulated effectively by cutting the income tax rate and the social security contribution rate, i.e. by reducing the tax wedge on labour income, which positively affects Slovenia's international competitiveness. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component. We also provide a first simulation of potential effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the Slovenian economy, which is modelled as a combined demand and supply shock.

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