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The European Green Deal (EGD), a package of measures "to put Europe on a pathway to a sustainable future, while leaving no one behind", can combine climate neutrality with a sustainable economic recovery of Europe coming out of the Corona pandemic crisis. However, this requires a tightening of climate targets for 2030 already, and the development of an ambitious climate policy pathway, replacing the current "business as usual". In particular, the recovery programs must target energy efficiency and innovations for sustainable technologies, such as renewable energies, storage, and other flexibility options. This study analyzes selected areas of the European Green Deal critically, focusing on the core objective of achieving climate neutrality. The study uses energy system modeling to describe an ambitious approach to achieve climate neutrality in the spirit of the Paris climate agreement (called "Paris"- scenario) aiming for carbon neutrality by 2040. Particular focus is placed on justice and solidarity between stakeholders that are affected differently. The reference benchmark of the EGD must be climate neutrality, and coherence with the 2015 Paris climate agreement for a pathway limiting the increase of the global mean temperature to far below 2°, and if possible to 1.5°. Significant increases in energy efficiency and energy savings through behavioral change can lead to a reduction of primary energy demand by about 50% by 2050 (basis: 2015). Even under these optimistic assumptions, an increase of the greenhouse gas emission reductions ("ambition level") is necessary for 2030 and 2040, to reach climate neutrality. An appropriate target for 2030 is in the range of 60% to 65% reduction (basis: 1990), instead of the "business-as-usual", i.e. only a 40% reduction target for 2030. Despite declining final energy consumption, the trend towards electrification is increasing the demand for electricity, which is likely to more than double between 2020 (approx. 4,000 terrawatt- hours, TWh) and 2050. The declining shares of fossil and fissile power generation will be replaced mainly by onshore wind and solar photovoltaic capacities. Offshore wind plays a certain role, especially in the countries bordering the North Sea. At the end of the period, in the 2040s, 100% of supply will be secured by renewable energies. [.]

Effective policies to mitigate climate change need to be accompanied by a socially just transition. This is especially relevant for coal regions. This paper draws on the experiences of past and ongoing transition policies, exploring their effectiveness and transferability. The challenges of structural change in coal regions are complex and region-specific, spanning from technical aspects over political and economic to social and cultural aspects. To facilitate the exchange of experiences, a typology is suggested and applied to five coal regions in Germany, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic. It characterises regions according to the type of coal mined, population density, economic prosperity, existence of national coal phase-out policies, advancement of regional transition strategies and the anticipated speed of transition. Insights are mainly derived from two different structural change processes in Germany. The hard coal mining phase-out in the Ruhr area that started in the 1950s and has recently been completed is compared with the more recent lignite mining phase-down in Lusatia. A new approach can be observed: As climate change has become a major driver of structural change, time frames for structural policies have become significantly shorter, and such policies are being shaped by more proactive engagement. Lessons learnt include the need for proactive and forward-looking structural policies and the importance of timing. Regions should set realistic expectations on structural policy and develop strategies that account for their individual situation whilst learning from past experiences in other regions. Uncertainties should be communicated in a transparent manner. Diversification of the economy is needed to avoid lock-in effects. Stakeholder participation, just transition strategies as well as multi-layered and multi-faceted governance approaches are key aspects as well. With the European Green Deal, a strategy is highlighted that can facilitate a just transition in coal regions in the future.

Publiziert als Diskussionsbeiträge der Scientists for Future 10, 1–17, doi:10.5281/zenodo.6363715. Die Erstveröffentlichung erfolgte 2022-03-17. GERMAN SUMMARY (ENGLISH ABSTRACT: below): Aktuell importiert Deutschland 500 TWh/a Erdgas aus der Russischen Föderation. Der Großteil dieses Gases wird zur Erzeugung von Prozess- und Raumwärme eingesetzt. Durch eine beschleunigte Umstellung der Wärmeversorgung auf von erneuerbarem Strom angetriebene Wärmepumpen, regenerative Wärme in Wärmenetzen und die Substitution von Erdgas in der Stromerzeugung durch erneuerbare Energie sowie Energieeinsparung kann in wenigen Jahren so viel Erdgas eingespart werden, wie heute aus der Russischen Föderation importiert wird. Dazu bedarf es einer stark beschleunigten Verbreitung von Wärmenetzen und Wärmepumpen in Verbindung mit einer Ausbildungsoffensive im Handwerk. Auch Änderungen des regulativen Rahmens in Form eines Verbots von Öl- und Gasheizungen sowie finanzielle Anreize und gezielte Förderprogramme sind erforderlich. Mit solchen gezielten Anstrengungen kann Deutschland gleichzeitig einen deutlichen Beitrag im Kampf gegen die Klimakrise leisten. Schlagwörter: Klimakrise, Klimaschutz, Klimapolitik, Energiepolitik, Sicherheitspolitik, Deutschland, Energiewende, Energieautarkie, Russland, Ukraine, Erdgas, Wärmewende, Wärmepumpen ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Germany currently imports 500 TWh/a of natural gas from the Russian Federation. Most of this gas is used to generate process and space heat. By accelerating the conversion of heat supply to heat pumps powered by renewable electricity, renewable heat in district heating networks, and the substitution of natural gas in electricity generation with renewable energy, as well as energy conservation, as much natural gas can be saved in a few years as is currently imported from the Russian Federation. This requires greatly accelerating the spread of district heating networks and heat pumps in conjunction with a training offensive in the skilled trades. Changes to the regulatory framework in the ...

A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies. ; BMBF, 01LA1826A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die politische Ökonomie eines globalen Kohleausstiegs (PEGASOS) - Teilprojekt 1: Koordination, Analyse der politischen Ökonomie vergangener Kohleausstiege ; BMBF, 01LA1810A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die Zukunft fossiler Energieträger im Zuge von Treibhausgasneutralität (FFF) - Teilprojekt 1: Implementierung von Ausstiegspfaden ; BMBF, 01LN1704A, Nachwuchsgruppe Globaler Wandel: CoalExit - Die Ökonomie des Kohleausstiegs - Identifikation von Bausteinen für Rahmenpläne zukünftiger regionaler Strukturwandel ; BMBF, 01LG1910A, Qualitätssicherung von IPCC-AR6: Chapter Scientist für WG III, Kapitel 2 (Emissions trends and drivers)

Aktuell überschlagen sich Vorschläge, wie auf den Krieg in der Ukraine energiepolitisch zu reagieren ist. Ein Schlüsselprinzip rückt dabei erst langsam ins öffentliche Bewusstsein: Energiesuffizienz. Das bedeutet, den Bedarf an Energie zu senken. Energiesuffizienz senkt Kosten, reduziert den Bedarf an Zukäufen, macht energiepolitisch unabhängiger und ist klimapolitisch hilfreich. Sie muss jetzt zu einem zentralen Prinzip politischen Handelns werden. Eine ergänzende Veröffentlichung zu einer Sammlung verschiedener Materialien zu Maßnahmenvorschlägen und Potenzialabschätzungen zu den Themen Energiesuffizienz, Energieeffizienz und Energieunabhängigkeit ist unter https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6405817 abrufbar.

Aktuell überschlagen sich Vorschläge, wie auf den Krieg in der Ukraine energiepolitisch zu reagieren ist. Ein Schlüsselprinzip rückt dabei erst langsam ins öffentliche Bewusstsein: Energiesuffizienz. Das bedeutet, den Bedarf an Energie zu senken. Energiesuffizienz senkt Kosten, reduziert den Bedarf an Zukäufen, macht energiepolitisch unabhängiger und ist klimapolitisch hilfreich. Sie muss jetzt zu einem zentralen Prinzip politischen Handelns werden. Eine ergänzende Veröffentlichung zu einer Sammlung verschiedener Materialien zu Maßnahmenvorschlägen und Potenzialabschätzungen zu den Themen Energiesuffizienz, Energieeffizienz und Energieunabhängigkeit ist unter https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6405817 abrufbar. Bitte zitieren als: "Autor:innengruppe Energiesuffizienz (2022): Energiesparen als Schlüssel zur Energiesicherheit - Suffizienz als Strategie. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6419202" Kurzbezeichnung: "Thesenpapier Energiesuffizienz" Kontakt: info@energysufficiency.de