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The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 12962
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Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 12964
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L'évolution démographique et l'automatisation, deux enjeux mondiaux pour l'avenir du travail
In: Revue internationale du travail, Band 159, Heft 3, S. 315-338
ISSN: 1564-9121
RésuméLes auteurs s'interrogent sur le nombre des emplois qu'il conviendra de créer demain pour répondre aux besoins engendrés par l'évolution démographique, économique et technologique. Ils font le calcul pour la période 2020‐2030, en se fondant sur des projections de croissance démographique et de taux d'activité et en fixant des taux de chômage cibles. Les résultats sont ventilés par âge et par sexe. Les auteurs tiennent compte également de l'influence du niveau de revenu du pays et de l'automatisation. D'après leurs projections, les besoins de création d'emplois atteindront 340 millions en 2020‐2030, et ils seront imputables à l'évolution démographique bien plus qu'à l'automatisation.
El futuro del trabajo: Hacer frente a los retos mundiales del cambio demográfico y la automatización
In: Revista internacional del trabajo, Band 139, Heft 3, S. 309-333
ISSN: 1564-9148
ResumenSobre la base de estimaciones y proyecciones de 2010‐2020, se proyectan las necesidades mundiales de creación de empleo en 2020‐2030 teniendo en cuenta las previsiones de crecimiento demográfico y participación laboral, los objetivos en cuanto a control del desempleo y las tendencias en cuanto a automatización, por edad, por género y por grupos de países según su nivel de renta. Serán necesarios 340 millones de nuevos puestos en el próximo decenio según estas estimaciones, debido en mayor medida a la evolución demográfica que a la automatización.
The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation
In: International labour review, Band 159, Heft 3, S. 285-306
ISSN: 1564-913X
AbstractThis article explores future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic and technological change. The authors first estimate the implications for job creation during 2020–30 of population growth, changes in labour force participation and the achievement of target unemployment rates, by age and sex. Second, they analyse the job creation needs by country income group and, lastly, examine the effects of accelerated automation. Projections indicate that shifting demographics will account for a far greater share of the estimated global need for 340 million jobs over 2020–30 than automation.
Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 178, S. 106575
Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP17393
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Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
In: NBER Working Paper No. w26003
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Coping with inefficiencies in a New Economic Geography model: The unintended consequences of policy interventions
In: Mathematical social sciences, Band 76, S. 146-157
Coping with inefficiencies in a New Economic Geography model
This article introduces a social planner version of a model central to the New Economic Geography for explicitly answering whether the symmetric equilibrium outcome of the decentralized market economy is socially desirable. We find that savings incentives are too weak, resulting in an inefficiently low capital stock and therefore an inadequate number of product varieties. The optimal subsidy and taxation scheme to remedy these distortions resulting from the monopolistic competition structure is shown to be a sales subsidy financed by a lump-sum tax that results in marginal cost pricing. Interestingly, implementing this optimal policy might actually destroy the stability of the symmetric equilibrium and result in unintended agglomeration processes.
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Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 11940
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Working paper
The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea
In: NBER Working Paper No. w23601
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Working paper
Going Beyond GDP with a Parsimonious Indicator: Inequality-Adjusted Healthy Lifetime Income
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 12963
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