China seems to strive to redefine the global order around sovereignty and a strong state. Yet is China engaging in a constitutive process shaped by the global economy; or is it an imperial power pursuing national sovereignty at any cost? In the West, there are very different answers to this question. This ambiguity is not by design but rather indicates that China lacks a coherent vision for the world. If the EU is to exploit this, it needs to understand why.
Der 20. Parteitag der Kommunistischen Partei Chinas hat die Macht von Staats- und Parteichef Xi Jinping erheblich gestärkt. Dies hat Folgen für Chinas Rolle in der Welt: Wirtschaftliche Reformen sind nicht zu erwarten. China wird zunehmend eigenen Sicherheitsinteressen Priorität einräumen. Eine aggressivere Außenpolitik der Volksrepublik ist zu erwarten; die Gefahr einer kriegerischen Eskalation um Taiwan ist real.
The digital technology transformation is a largely overlooked dimension of Zeitenwende. However, preserving national security, safeguarding core values enshrined in technology, ensuring access to critical technologies, and maintaining competitiveness need to be a policy priorities for Germany and Europe. All of these are integral elements of autonomy and sovereignty in a world increasingly characterized by great power rivalry. The looming policy decisions, however, will have divergent outcomes depending on the prevailing political paradigms: Europe needs to start with a proper analysis of the geopolitical context. At its heart is the question of whether Germany and Europe prepare for a zero polar, bipolar or multipolar world. Europe's ambition will largely depend on its assessment of the future international order. The general assessment needs to be followed by a technology-specific understanding of interdependent ecosystems. Germany and Europe need to acknowledge that the challenges largely diverge. This requires identifying criticality, risks, and conditions of market success or failure in concrete technology ecosystems. Only from such an assessment can a proper policy toolbox be developed. Regardless of analysis, Germany and Europe need to sort out public and private interaction to fully capitalize on the private sector's innovation power, as these players could support overarching security priorities with innovative technology in the digital sphere.
Two representative opinion polls conducted in 2020 and 2022 show that the German population supports a more principled China policy. At the same time, two-thirds of respondents identify as the policy priority cooperation with China to solve global challenges - narrowly followed by cyber security and human rights concerns. Although this approach resembles Germany's new China Strategy, the public is not yet convinced that the issue is being effectively addressed. Channeling public support to back concrete action is key for the Germany's China policy.
Germany is considering banning equipment made by Chinese companies like tech giant Huawei - in its 5G mobile infrastructure. A revised 2021 IT Security Act failed to reduce China's 59 percent market share. A representative opinion poll, shows only 30.8 percent of Germans want 5G cooperation with China. Across 11 European countries, skepticism is equal, with only 31.8 percent approval - though this varies greatly from country to country.
Chinas wirtschaftlicher und politischer Aufstieg fordert Deutschland auf vielen Ebenen heraus, von der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit seiner Industrie bis zur Robustheit seiner demokratischen Institutionen. Diese systemische Herausforderung zu bewältigen ist umso schwieriger, als Deutschland wirtschaftlich in hohem Maße von China abhängig ist.
Until late last year, most Europeans only knew Huawei as one of many smartphone manufacturers gaining ground in stores across the continent. But in recent months, the tech giant has turned into a symbol of a high-stakes wrestling match between the world's premier superpower, the United States, and its increasingly ambitious and capable challenger, China. Indeed, the impending rollout of 5G infrastructure has become a key battleground in a broader struggle for control over the industries of the future. Europe has meanwhile been caught on its back foot and urgently needs to develop a strategy to not only guide it through the current 5G debate, but also the tech rivalries that are still to come. (author's abstract)
Der von Russland im Februar begonnene Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine hat die bisherige europäische Sicherheitsordnung zerstört. Bereits jetzt muss die von der Bundesregierung proklamierte Zeitenwende in der deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik eine neue Ordnung ins Auge fassen und gestalten, um erfolgreich zu sein. Schlüsselfaktoren sind die Einigkeit Europas in strategischen Politikfeldern sowie Russlands Positionierung gegenüber dem Rest Europas. Die drei Zukunftsoptionen - Konfrontation, Koexistenz oder Kooperation - identifizieren die Grundlagen für ein starkes Europa.
