The advocates of modern western democracy promote the viewpoint that the class division of the society is becoming outdated. We attempt to disprove this state ment with an example of 28 German parties who participated in the 2013 federal election. The official party positions on 38 policy issues are considered and the parties are identified with vectors of this 38-dimensional policy space. The statement in question, that there is no predominant political axis, would imply that the party vectors are scattered homogeneously, making a ballshaped cloud of `observations'. However, the Prime Component Analysis (PCA) shows that the party vectors constitute a thin ellipsoid whose two longest diameters cover 83.4% of the total variance. The consequent party ordering is the left-right axis rolled in a circumference, making the far-left and far-right ends meet. Basing on this empirical evidence, we conclude that neither the left-right characterization of parties nor the class opposition is outdated.
The advocates of modern western democracy promote the viewpoint that the class division of the society is becoming outdated. We attempt to disprove this statement with an example of 28 German parties who participated in the 2013 federal election. The official party positions on 38 policy issues are considered and the parties are identified with vectors of this 38-dimensional policy space. The statement in question, that there is no predominant political axis, would imply that the party vectors are scattered homogeneously, making a ball-shaped cloud of 'observations'. However, the Prime Component Analysis (PCA) shows that the party vectors constitute a thin ellipsoid whose two longest diameters cover 83.4% of the total variance. The consequent party ordering is the left-right axis rolled in a circumference, making the far-left and far-right ends meet. Basing on this empirical evidence, we conclude that neither the left-right characterization of parties nor the class opposition is outdated. Next, it is shown that the electoral success is highly correlated with the number of party members, but not with the party's capacity to represent public opinion. For this purpose, a representativeness index is defined which measures how well the party policy profiles match with the results of 36 public opinion polls on 36 out of the 38 policy issues mentioned. To reveal representativeness trends, the parties are ordered contiguously, with neighboring parties having close policy profiles. This contiguous ordering is found with four optimization methods: (1) dimensionality reduction by means of PCA, (2) traveling salesman problem to construct the shortest chain of proximate parties, (3) least squares to minimize the distances between parties with close profiles, and (4) largest squares to maximize the distances between parties with opposite profiles. The most salient trend is observed for the circular left-right party ordering found with the PCA. The best representatives of public opinion are the moderate left, next come the far-left and the far-right, and the least representative are moderate right (conservative) parties. All of these imply the following warning. Since the collapse of communism damaged significantly the image of the left, their election today looks hardly probable, but the power can be taken by the next-representative far-right parties who already represent public opinion better than the currently governing conservative party.
The outcomes of the 2013 German Bundestag (federal parliament) election are analyzed from the viewpoint of direct democracy. For this purpose, the party positions on 36 topical issues are compared with the results of public opinion polls, and the party and coalition indices of popularity (the average percentage of the population represented) and universality (frequency in representing a majority) are constructed. It is shown that the 2013 election winner, the union of two conservative parties CDU/CSU with their 41.6% of the votes, is the least representative among the four parties eligible for parliament seats (with > 5% of the votes). The most representative among the eligible ones is the left party, DIE LINKE, which received only 8.6% of the votes. It is concluded that voters are not very consistent with their own political profiles, disregard party manifestos, and are likely driven by political traditions, even if outdated, or by personal images of politicians. Moreover, the actual practice of coalition formation further aggravates the low representativeness of the parliament. Thereby it is shown that representative democracy, as it is, guarantees no adequate representation of public opinion, even in Germany with its multiparty system and strong socialdemocratic traditions. To bridge the gap between representative and direct democracies, an alternative election procedure is proposed. For illustration, it is hypothetically applied to redistribute the Bundestag seats to increase its representativeness.
The outcomes of the 2013 German Bundestag (federal parliament) are analyzed from the viewpoint of direct democracy. For this purpose, the party positions on 36 topical issues are compared with the results of public opinion polls, and the party and coalition indices of popularity (the average percentage of the population represented) and universality (frequency in representing a majority) are constructed. It is shown that the 2013 election winner, the union of two conservative parties CDU/CSU with their 41.6% of the votes, is the least representative among the four parties eligible for parliament seats (with > 5% of the votes). The most representative among the eligible ones is the left party DIE LINKE that received only 8.6% of the votes. It is concluded that voters are not very consistent with their own political profiles, disregard party manifestos, and are likely driven by political traditions, even if outdated, or by personal images of politicians. Moreover, the actual practice of coalition formation further aggravates the low representativeness of the parliament. Thereby it is shown that representative democracy, as it is, guarantees no adequate representation of public opinion even in Germany with its multiparty system and strong socialdemocratic traditions. To bridge approaches of representative and direct democracy, an alternative election procedure is proposed. For illustration, it is hypothetically applied to redistribute the Bundestag seats with a considerable gain in its representativeness.
Five German leading parties and their coalitions are evaluated from the viewpoint of direct democracy. For this purpose, the positions of the parties on over 30 topical issues are compared with the results of polls of public opinion. The outcomes are summarized in the indices of popularity and universality of the parties and of the DGB (German Confederation of Trade Unions). The selection of policy issues and the information on the party positions are given as in the Wahl-O-Mat(2010) for the last Bundestag (German parliamentary) elections 2009. It is shown that the Bundestag election winner 2009 - the conservative party CDU/CSU with 33.8% votes - has a quite low representative capacity (fourth among the five leading parties), whereas the most representative is the left party Linke which received only 11.9% votes. As for possible coalitions, the most representative would consist of the Linke and the ecologists Grünen, who received together 22.6% votes and could not make a government. It is noteworthy that the DGB is also top evaluated as a good representative of majority opinions. The analysis of Bundestag elections 2009 shows that the voters are little consistent with their own political profiles, disregard party manifestos, and are likely driven by political traditions, even if outdated, or by personal images of politicians. Taking into account the results of the study, some modifications to the election procedure are proposed to bridge approaches of representative and direct democracy.
The analysis of interaction of flexibility and precariousness of work shows that the more flexible employment, the more it is precarious. For this purpose, two families of indices, of flexible work and of precarious work, are defined basing on the Fourth European Survey of Working Conditions 2005 by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (2007a). Two methodologies of constructing composite indicators are applied, of the Hans Böckler Foundation, and of the OECD. Both methodologies give very similar results. After the indices have been constructed, the dependence between flexibility and precariousness of work is established by regression analysis with statistical certainty. Besides, it is revealed that the institutional regulation of employment does not necessarily imply the adequate factual effect. For instance, Turkey and Greece with a very strict employment protection legislation have a high labour market flexibility due to a large fraction of employees who work with no contract. Among other things, it is shown that the employment flexibility has the strongest negative effect on the employability. It implies serious arguments against the recent reconsideration of the function of social security attempted by the European Commission within the flexicurity discourse. The suggested shift from income security towards a high employability cannot be consistently implemented. Our study provides empirical evidence that a high employability can be hardly attained under flexible employment.
Five leading German political parties and their coalitions are evaluated with regard to party manifestos and results of the 2005 parliamentary elections. For this purpose, the party manifestos are converted into Yes/No answers to 95 topical questions (Relax the protection against dismissals? Close nuclear power plants? etc.). On each question, every party represents its adherents as well as those of the parties with the same position. Therefore, a party usually represents a larger group than its direct adherents. The popularity of a party is understood to be the percentage of the electorate represented, averaged on all the 95 questions. The universality of a party is the frequency of representing a majority of electors. The questions are considered either unweighted, or weighted by an expert, or weighted by the number of GOOGLE-results for given keywords (the more important the question, the more documents in the Internet). The weighting however plays a negligible role because the party answers are backed up by the party "ideology" which determines a high intra-question correlations. The SPD (Social-Democratic Party) did not receive the highest percentage of votes, remains nevertheless the most popular and the most universal German party. A comparison of the election results with the position of German Trade Union Federation (DGB) reveals its high representativeness as well. Finally, all coalitions with two and three parties are also evaluated. The coalition CDU/SPD (which is currently in power) is the most popular, and the coalition SPD/Green/Left-Party (which failed due to personal conflicts) is the most universal.
The notion of flexicurity promotes the idea of compensation of labour market deregulation (= flexibilization) with advantages in employment and social security. To monitor effects of flexicurity policies in Europe, flexicurity indices are constructed from (a) scores of the strictness of employment protection legislation provided by the OECD, (b) qualitative juridical data on social security benefits (unemployment insurance, public pensions, etc.), and (c) data on the dynamics of employment types (permanent, temporary, full-time, part-time, self-employed, etc.). The empirical investigation shows that, contrary to political promises and theoretical opinions, the current deregulation of European labour markets is not compensated with improvements in social security.
The social security systems in 22 European countries are evaluated with a specially constructed indicator. It is based on a census-simulating model which combines both empirical (statistical) and normative (rule-based) approaches. The individual answers of unemployed on social security benefits are normatively derived from their personal situations with the OECD Tax-Benefit Models. The empirical data about personal situations are available from EuroStat. The goal is estimating the national average of net replacement rates (NRR) for unemployed persons. Such an indicator of social security shows the average degree with which social benefits compensate the loss of previous earnings. Thus, the paper suggests: * (Methodology) a model of census simulation combining statistical data on the population with individual answers computed with a rule-based model, * (Indicator) an integral quantitative evaluation of social security in Europe, which reveals its total decline by 2004 contrary to institutional improvements, * (Analysis) an explanation of the decline by a structural change of European labour markets with rapidly growing 'atypical' employment groups (= part-time, temporary, self-employed, etc.) with a lower eligibility to social benefits than normally employed (= permanently full-time), * (Policy implications) a possible resolution of European policy contradictions by the "basic income model" with "flexinsurance".
Aufgrund der Daten der Dritten Europäischen Umfrage für Arbeitsbedingungen wurde für den Vergleich europäischer Staaten ein zusammengesetzter Indikator der Arbeitsbedingungen aufgestellt. Die wichtigsten Forschungsergebnisse sind wie folgt: (a) die Ungleichheit zwischen europäischen Staaten ist statistisch signifikanter hinsichtlich der Arbeitsbedingungen als hinsichtlich des Einkommens; dies impliziert eine recht exakte Untersuchung in der Rangordnung der Länder nach den Arbeitsbedingungen, (b) durchschnittliche Arbeitsbedigungen und Einkommen in den Ländern stehen in einer positiven Korrelation zueinander, aber innerhalb der einzelnen Länder korrelieren sie wenig; das heißt, sie werden durch die nationale Spezifität beeinflusst und (c) die subjektiven Einschätzungen einschließlich der allgemeinen Arbeitszufriedenheit hängen nicht von den Einkünften ab, sondern hauptsächlich von Arbeitsbedingungen; dementsprechend sollte der Verbesserung der Arbeitsbedingungen mehr Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt werden. Zusätzlich wird ein dreidimensionaler Indikator für die Arbeitszeit konstruiert mit Aspekten wie Dauer, Lage (Abnormalität) und Flexibilität. Es ist statistisch bewiesen, dass Abnormalität und Flexibilität der Arbeitszeit sich gegenseitig kompensieren, aber die Dauer der Arbeitszeit ist von ihrer Lage und von ihrer Flexibilität unabhängig.
A composite indicator Working conditions for comparing European countries is constructed from data of the Third European Survey on Working Conditions. The main findings are as follows: (a) European countries differ with respect to working conditions statistically more significantly than with respect to earnings; it implies a quite accurate discrimination threshold in ranking countries with respect to working conditions,(b) working conditions and earnings positively correlate over the whole of Europe but correlate little within single countries; it indicates at the prevailing role of national determinants over professional or social specificities as contributing to the average working conditions, and (c) earnings play no essential role in subjective estimations, including job satisfaction, which mainly depends on working conditions; consequently, more attention should be paid to improving the latter. The same approach is applied to constructing a three-dimensional indicator of Working time, reflecting its aspects duration, location (abnormality), and flexibility. It is found that abnormality and flexibility compensate each other, whereas the duration is not aflected by two other factors.
German structural policy is characterized by a composite indicator with three targets:(1) minimization of unemployment, (2) maximization of GDP, and (3) equalization of regional unemployment rates. The composite indicator with given target weights is maximized subject to budget constraints and some administrative restrictions. The optimal combinations of target indices obtained for variable weight ratios are to be considered by a policy maker who thereby makes the final choice among already optimized outcomes, not being burdened with adjusting the target weights. The optimization is performed for econometric predictions-2004 which are derived from regional data for 1994-2002. Comparing with the optimal budget distribution, the efficiency of the actual "manual" budget distribution in 2000-2002 is about 4%, that is, the results actually obtained for 6 Bio. EUR could be obtained for 241 Mio.EUR (= 4% of the actual budget). Such a bad implementation of active labour market policies can be responsible for their low efficiency reported in some empirical studies and misinterpreted as their uselessness. Besides, it is found that the most productive jobs (most contributing to GDP) require least subsidies. Finally, taxes expected from new jobs allow to consider the problem from a managerial viewpoint. In particular, the government can maximize tax returns from investments in labour market policies.
Nach einer umfassenden Auswertung der Ergebnisse der Bundestagswahl 2005 hinsichtlich der Wahlprogramme bleibt die SPD die repräsentativste Partei Deutschlands, obwohl ihr Stimmenanteil nicht der höchste ist. Um dies zu zeigen, werden die Indikatoren der Popularität und der Universalität der Parteien aufgrund der Wahlprogramme und Wahlergebnisse abgeleitet. Eine Auswertung der möglichen Koalitionen wird vorgenommen.
The notion of flexicurity was introduced in the late 1990s. It promotes the idea of compensation of deregulation of labour markets (= flexibilization) by advantages in employment and social security, in particularly for flexibly employed (other than permanent full-time, called also atypically employed). This paper suggests an operational definition of flexicurity, taking into account different views of liberals and trade unions. The corresponding flexicurity indices are derived from (a) data on the dynamics of employment types, (b) scores of the strictness of employment protection legislation provided by the OECD, and (c) qualitative juridical data on social security. To convert the latter into numbers, eight employment types (permanent full-time, fixed- term part-time, etc.) in 16 European countries are ranked with respect to their eligibility to five social security benefits (unemployment insurance, public pensions, etc). To avoid known shortages of ranking, the Method of Total Ranks is proposed. The ranks replace continuous variables as index entries, and a dedicated model estimates the total index error which results from such an 'ordinal rounding' of the index input. The flexicurity indices are calculated for 16 European countries for the years 1994-2003. Contrary to theoretical opinions, the current deregulation of European labour markets is not compensated by improvements in the social security. If the flexicurity advantages/disadvantages are accounted proportionally to the size of affected groups then the factual trends are negative even from the viewpoint of liberals, to say nothing of trade unions. The reciprocity of the advantages/disadvantages turns out to be illusory, because gains are smaller than losses and winners are fewer than losers. Thereby the study warns against promoting flexicurity policies with no operational control and empirical feedback.
The notion of flexicurity was introduced in the 1990s to promote a better job security and social security of atypically employed (other than permanent full-time). The given paper suggests an operational definition of flexicurity which implies the corresponding flexicurity index. For analytical purposes two other indices, the Norm-security of 'normally', i.e. permanent full-time, employed and the All-security of all, i.e. both 'normally' and atypically employed, are defined. The indices are derived from qualitative juridical data. For this purpose, employment groups in different countries are ranked with respect to five partial criteria: the eligibility to public pensions, to unemployment insurance, etc. Due to the specificity of criteria, the ranking is generally possible and is not that confusing as the task of numerical evaluation. A dedicated mathematical proposition estimates the error in the index which results from 'ordinal rounding' of the input variables comparing to using the 'exact' variable values. Thus even if the 'exact' (latent) variables are not known then the rank-scaled input is sufficient to approximate the index which otherwise could not be obtained at all. The index is calculated for 16 European countries for the years 1990-2003.
