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MODEL ESTIMASI WABAH DEMAM BERDARAH DAN PENANGANAN KADER JUMANTIK DI WILAYAH MALANG RAYA (KOTA MALANG, KABUPATEN MALANG DAN KOTA BATU)Estimation Model of DHF Epidemic and It's Handling of Jumantik Cadre at Malang Raya Region (Malang City, Malang District and Batu City)Moh. Hartono(1), Yoyok Heru P.I(2), Arif Rahman Hakim(3), Elief Yuniarti(4)(1,2,3)Politeknik Negeri Malang(4)Paramedis Puskesmas Dinoyo MalangEmail: 1)hartono@polinema.ac.idABSTRAKStudi tentang wabah DBD telah banyak dilaksanakan akan tetapi penelitian yang mengkombinasikan peramalan dan analisis multivariat yang berkaitan dengan penanganan DBD masih jarang dijadikan kajian. Penelitian ini mencoba mengkombinasikan kedua metode diatas dalam menekan wabah DBD khususnya di wilayah Malang Raya (meliputi Kota Malang, Kabupaten Malang dan Kota Batu). Sejauh ini kelemahan penanganan dari wabah DBD adalah masih kurang tepatnya waktu antisipasi dan cara penanganan pencegahan wabah DBD. Hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini berupa model waktu antisipasi yang tepat dan cara penanganan mencegah berjangkitnya wabah DBD. Model peramalan dalam bentuk ARIMA musiman ( p , d , q ) ( P , D , Q )12 dengan berbagai variasi di setiap wilayah. Sedangkan hasil dari analisis multivariat yang melibatkan analisis faktor adalah terbentuknya 10 faktor baru yang berpengaruh terhadap kinerja Kader Jumantik. Diharapkan dengan kombinasi kedua metode ini dapat menjadi masukan bagi Pemerintah lokal khususnya di wilayah Malang Raya dalam menangani wabah DBD. Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Analisis Faktor dan Model ARIMA. ABSTRACTThe study of an epidemic of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever ( DHF ) has been widely implemented , however, research on the combination of forecasting and factors analysis related to the handling of DHF is still small even rarely studied . This study tries to combine both methods in suppressing the development of dengue epidemic especially in Malang region which covers an area of Malang City, Malang District and Batu City . So far, Weakness of handling DHF is less precisely of anticipation timing and how to deal with dengue disease . The results of this study in the form of input anticipation appropiate time and the right way in preventing and combating dengue disease . Forecasting models in the form of seasonal ARIMA ( p , d , q ) ( P , D , Q )12 with diverse variations of each region . While the results of the factor analysis formed 10 new factors that affect the performance of its duties Jumantik cadres. Hopefully with this combination can be input for each Local Government in dealing with an epidemic of dengue feverKeywords: Forecasting, Factor Analysis, ARIMA Model

Significant land use changes due to rapid development, a central issue in Bandar Lampung and high rainfall intensity are the main triggers for frequent flooding. This study was carried out to define design rainfall intensity based on analysis of hourly temporal rainfall pattern for calculating design discharge, predict the impact of land use changes on flood peaks, and predict the impact of infiltration well on flood peak reduction. The results showed that rainfall distribution pattern for storm duration of 4 h are 40, 35, 20 and 5% for the first, second, third and fourth hour, respectively. Analysis on land use changes underlined that if 30% of the catchment area is maintained for green land then flood peaks can be decreased. However, with city development, land conversions are intended for settlements, industries and trading areas which will increase flood peaks significantly. Application of infiltration well in the catchment can reduce surface runoff depends on the density and dimension of the well. The results suggest that using infiltration well with diameters between 0.8 to 1.4 m which are applied each in every 4000 m 2 of land area will reduce flood peaks from 6.9 to 12.6%. While the application of infiltration well with density of 500 m 2 will reduce flood peaks from 55.21 to 99.8%. Commitment and relevant government policies and community participation will encourage to undertake flood reduction measures.

Milkfish is common aquaculture product consumed by Indonesian people. However, the ponds of milkfish in Indonesia manage by Small Medium Enterprises scale of farmers which have problems in sustaining the business. This study proposes supply chain analysis in the upstream level to develop strategic to improve the profit of milkfish farmers. Milkfish supply chain is a network of many actors that work together to create and deliver milkfish and its culinary products to the end-user. This paper defines the partnership strategies between the farmers and suppliers as well as the support from government as facilitator and regulator. Moreover, system dynamic approach analyses the scenarios of partnership to outline the benefit obtain by the milkfish supply chain. Finally, the simulation results recommend the partnership to fertilizer supplier will give significant increase in profit of the milkfish farmers.

Mangrove area of Berau District, East Kalimantan Province is an important buffering zone for Derawan Islands. It also becomes a distinctive habitat for commercial fisheries commodity. Land conversion into shrimp ponds has threatened its sustainability. This paper summarizing its ecological condition, fisheries, and management options presents a guideline for the decision makers about what strategies can be applied in conserving the mangrove sustainability. Overall, the ecological condition is proven to support sustainable fisheries practice; such as shrimp and crab silvofisheries. Moreover, the calculation of firewood economic value shows that a sustainable commercial firewood production is another option that can be established to support local economic activities. In addition, a well managing ecotourism may be considered by local government considering its potential for local economic growth.

To produce large volumes of biomass for implementing its green energy policy, the Government of Indonesia has issued a short rotation energy plantation program for a number of tree species including Calliandra calothyrsus (Meissn.). Optimum density and prompt harvesting are needed to maximise productivity, but information regarding both factors is insufficient. This study aimed to investigate the optimum growth spacing and ideal felling age to produce the largest volumes of biomass both economically and sustainably. Experiments were arranged on one hectare of land, which was divided into four plots with different plant spacing treatments (1 × 1.5 m; 1.5 × 1.5 m; 2 × 1.5 m; and 2 × 2 m). Growth and yield observations were carried out on plants aged 12, 18, and 24 months in each plot, with 30 sample trees left for growth observations and ten sample trees cut at each of the three ages after planting. This resulted in a total of 240 samples from the 2,710 trees planted. Trees were felled at 50 cm from the soil surface, and the resulting stools were left to regrow. A year after felling, resulting coppices, were observed and cut. Growth, productivity and calorific value were studied for both 'primary' and 'coppiced' wood. Study results demonstrate that competition between plants strongly determines the growth and productivity of 'primary' wood. The plot with the densest plant spacing had the lowest nutrient content for almost all soil nutrients. Higher plant density showed higher competition index values, and resulted in fewer and smaller diameter stems emerging from stools, and lower biomass productivity. Competition index values, which increased with plant age, can be used as an indicator for determining harvest timing. Productivity increased by up to 15% following development as a coppice plantation. Optimum wood productivity and greatest economy came from parent stands with plant spacing of 2 × 2 m, harvested at 18 months old and coppiced. This treatment yielded an average biomass/tree of primary wood 7.2 kg and coppice wood 8.22 kg, respectively, with lignin content of approximately 22%, and calorific value of around 18,807 kJ. These values match biomass energy requirements for feedstock for electricity generation. Harvesting at 24 months showed no significant increases in productivity, lignin content, or calorific value.

The Indonesian government is incorporating Low-Carbon Development (LCD) into its National Medium-Term Development Plan 2020–2024. In the future, the energy sector will become the largest carbon emitter unless the government commits to dissolving barriers to renewable energy expansion. Literature studies indicate four barriers to LDC namely socio-cultural, economic, technology, and governance. This research aims to examine the barriers that hinder the implementation of LCD in Indonesia and to analyze which barriers are most significant. This study uses mixed methods. Qualitative and quantitative data were generated during fieldwork in DKI Jakarta, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bangka Belitung provinces. The Partial Least Square – Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) approach was used to measure the direction and strength of the relationship. The qualitative approach is useful for further deepening the provincial context that was not captured from the previous approach. This study indicates that among those four barriers, technological and governance barriers have negative significant and direct effects on LCD, and governance needs to be treated as the most critical barrier. This study emphasizes the importance of collaboration between central and local governments in implementing LCD. Shared vision, equal responsibilities, commensurate governance roles, development of fiscal instruments, can improve the coherence and continuity of renewable energy development programs and activities.

Abstract Background Indonesia has set 2030 as its deadline for elimination of malaria transmission in the archipelago, with regional deadlines established according to present levels of malaria endemicity and strength of health infrastructure. The Municipality of Sabang which historically had one of the highest levels of malaria in Aceh province aims to achieve elimination by the end of 2013. Method From 2008 to 2010, baseline surveys of malaria interventions, mapping of all confirmed malaria cases, categorization of residual foci of malaria transmission and vector surveys were conducted in Sabang, Aceh, a pilot district for malaria elimination in Indonesia. To inform future elimination efforts, mass screening from the focal areas to measure prevalence of malaria with both microscopy and PCR was conducted. G6PD deficiency prevalence was also measured. Result Despite its small size, a diverse mixture of potential malaria vectors were documented in Sabang, including Anopheles sundaicus , Anopheles minimus , Anopheles aconitus and Anopheles dirus . Over a two-year span, the number of sub-villages with ongoing malaria transmission reduced from 61 to 43. Coverage of malaria diagnosis and treatment, IRS, and LLINs was over 80%. Screening of 16,229 residents detected 19 positive people, for a point prevalence of 0.12%. Of the 19 positive cases, three symptomatic infections and five asymptomatic infections were detected with microscopy and 11 asymptomatic infections were detected with PCR. Of the 19 cases, seven were infected with Plasmodium falciparum , 11 were infected with Plasmodium vivax , and one subject was infected with both species. Analysis of the 937 blood samples for G6PD deficiency revealed two subjects (0.2%) with deficient G6PD. Discussion The interventions carried out by the government of Sabang have dramatically reduced the burden of malaria over the past seven years. The first phase, carried out between 2005 and 2007, included improved malaria diagnosis, introduction of ACT for treatment, and scale-up of coverage of IRS and LLINs. The second phase, from 2008 to 2010, initiated to eliminate the persistent residual transmission of malaria, consisted of development of a malaria database to ensure rapid case reporting and investigation, stratification of malaria foci to guide interventions, and active .

Mangroves are an important ecosystem that provides valuable social, economic, and environmental services. Indonesia has placed mangroves on its national priority agenda in an important effort to sustainably manage this ecosystem and achieve national climate commitments. However, mangrove management is faced with complex challenges encompassing social, ecological, and economic issues. In order to achieve the government's commitments and targets regarding mangrove restoration and conservation, an in-depth study on and critical review of mangrove management in Indonesia was conducted herein. This work aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and strategic recommendations for sustainable mangrove management in Indonesia. SWOT analysis was carried out to understand the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to mangrove management in Indonesia. To address these gaps, we reviewed the existing policies, current rehabilitation practices, environmental challenges, and research and technology implementations in the field. We found that strategies on mangrove ecosystem protection, such as improving the function and value of mangrove forests, integrating mangrove ecosystem management, strengthening political commitments and law enforcement, involving all stakeholders (especially coastal communities), and advancing research and innovations, are crucial for sustainable mangrove management and to support the national blue carbon agenda.