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Here are three long-term shifts in the US budget picture, based on the most recent The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 from the Congressional Budget Office (February 2024). First, the major categories of US government spending have been shifting. Consider this graph showing federal spending divided into mandatory, discretionary, and net interest. The … Continue reading Three Long-Term Shifts in the US Budget Picture
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I have been the Managing Editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives since the first issue in Summer 1987. The JEP is published by the American Economic Association, which decided more than a decade ago–to my delight–that the journal would be freely available online, from the current issue all the way back to the first issue. You can … Continue reading Winter 2024 Journal of Economic Perspectives Free Online
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There’s a stereotypical hero in any number of movies and books, who is standing alone against the big project that is going to ruin the environment, ruin the community, or both. (In a slightly alternative version, the big project has already started to ruin the environment or the neighborhood.) If the hero is not already a … Continue reading Zoning: Tradeoffs of Localized and Centralized Decision-Making
The post Zoning: Tradeoffs of Localized and Centralized Decision-Making first appeared on Conversable Economist.

I see a lot more fire engines than I do fires, but as an economist, I trust statistics more than my own two eyes. The National Fire Protection Association collects the relevant data. Shelby Hall authored the most recent version of “Fire Loss in the United States” (November 1, 2023). The author notes: “On average, a fire … Continue reading Some Facts about Fires
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The euro technically started in 1999, when the 11 founding European members of the currency agreed to keep their exchange rates fixed and to hand over monetary policy to the European Central Bank. The euro then became the actual currency that people and firms used in 2002. I confess that, back in the early 1990s, … Continue reading The Euro at 25
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Megan T. Stevenson is an active researcher in the criminal-justice-and-economics literature. She has also noted a disconcerting fact: When you look at the published studies that use randomized control trial methods to evaluate ways of reducing crime, most of the studies don’t show a meaningful effect, and of those that do show a meaningful effect, … Continue reading Do Randomized Control Trials Support Real-World Policy Reforms?
The post Do Randomized Control Trials Support Real-World Policy Reforms? first appeared on Conversable Economist.

There are cities with high vacancy rates in their office buildings, as work-from-home has become more common. There are also cities that would like to expand their supply of housing. Thus, the idea of converting office buildings to housing offers the possibility of hitting two policies with one shot. Arpit Gupta, Candy Martinez, and Stijn Van … Continue reading Converting Office Buildings to Housing: Limits of the Possible
The post Converting Office Buildings to Housing: Limits of the Possible first appeared on Conversable Economist.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the share of US workers belonging to a union fell slightly, from 10.1% of all workers in 2022 to 10.0% in 2023. In response to this decline, the US Secretary of Labor Julie Su issued a statement that started this way: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported … Continue reading Unions: Facts and Fluff
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Before your writing can persuade those who actually read it of the merits of your thinking, the writing needs to persuade the reader–from the start–that it’s worth reading in the first place. I work as an editor, so I am predisposed to believe that editing matters. But Jan Feld, Corinna Lines, and Libby Ross provide some … Continue reading Better Writing is Perceived as Better Thinking
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The 2022, total US exports of goods and services were $3 trillion, while imports were $3.9 trillion. This overall trade provides benefits to the economy: sellers who have access to global markets (ask a farmer!), buyers who have greater access to products with the price/quality mix they prefer, and heightened competitive pressures on domestic producers … Continue reading The 30% Solution: Gains from Trade
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The world population is aging. In the next few decades, a much larger number of people are going to need long-term care. The United States, like most countries, doesn’t really have even a preliminary set of guidelines for how this might best happen. Here’s some background information from Health at a Glance 2023: OECD Indicators … Continue reading Aging and Long-Term Care: An International View
The post Aging and Long-Term Care: An International View first appeared on Conversable Economist.

There used to be a recognized academic field of “economic ornithology,” which emphasized the economic benefits of birds to agriculture, in their role reducing bugs and weeds. But with the advent of pesticides, economic ornithology had become obsolete by the 1940s. Robert Francis tells the story at his “Bird History” substack: “Economic Ornithology: Before pesticides, … Continue reading Economics is for the Birds
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On November 2, 1983, President Ronald Reagan signed a law establishing a federal holiday for the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr., to be celebrated each year on the third Monday in January. As the legislation that passed Congress said: "[S]uch holiday should serve as a time for Americans to reflect on the principles of racial … Continue reading Some Economics for Martin Luther King Jr. Day
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I’m a sports fan, which in this case may represent a conflict of interest, because it means I’m conflicted about public subsidies going to sports stadiums. The economic evidence on this point is pretty clear: such subsidies can transfer how people spend their entertainment dollars from one area of a city to another, but the net … Continue reading Professional Sports and the Lack of Local Economic Payoffs
The post Professional Sports and the Lack of Local Economic Payoffs first appeared on Conversable Economist.

In mid-December, the Japanese firm announced that it was buying U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion. The news was unsettling to politicians of both parties, who have often argued over the years that steel is a vital domestic industry, along with being an important source of jobs. For me, the real shock was the announced purchase … Continue reading Thoughts about US Steel
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