Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis article provides new calculations on the effects of demographic change on living standards in all 30 OECD countries using the latest demographic projections up to 2050 from the United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision. The calculations include several potential dividends that could offset, at least in part, the costs of a lower working age population share. The effects of demographic change calculated here are mechanical in that there is no explicit optimising behaviour. In the worst case scenario, which assumes zero potential dividends and no increase in labour force participation rates, the negative effect of demographic change on living standards among OECD countries over the whole period from 2006 to 2050 ranges from zero to 28 per cent, with an average over all countries of 15.5 per cent. In the best case scenario the average effect is zero. About half of the difference between the best and worst case scenarios is accounted for by higher labour force participation and about half by the potential dividends from demographic change.

The progressive ageing process concerns both Poland and the other Member States of the European Union. In recent years, the share of workers of non-mobile and post-productive age in the total population has been rising, and according to forecasts, in 2035 people aged 45 years and over will represent two-thirds of our society. Since the year 2012, announced the Year of Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations by the European Commission, more and more attention has been paid in the Polish public space to the issues of an ageing society, including its impact on the health of the economy. The article notes that the ageing process does not occur uniformly across all Polish regions, i.e. at the same pace and with the same intensity. The results of studies indicating the regions being most vulnerable to the ageing of the regional community and the negative consequences of this process in the next two decades are presented.

AbstractVarious research has demonstrated that rapid racial demographic change may aid in triggering various forms of backlash under certain conditions. This has led scholars to speak of Whites "defending" their local environment in the face of eroding racial dominance. However, little research has addressed how perceptions of racism among minorities may be triggered under conditions of demographic change. This study attempts to fill this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between racial demographic change for Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians and perceptions of racial problems among these groups in the United States. Using standard OLS regressions, ordered logistic regressions, multinomial logistic regressions, and techniques accounting for selection into treatment, I find that Blacks and Hispanics living in counties undergoing rapid growth of Black and Hispanic populations, respectively, have higher perceptions of racial problems. Asians show no evidence of increased perceptions of racial problems in counties undergoing rapid Asian growth. For Blacks, this relationship is concentrated among those without at least a four-year degree and residents of counties with lower initial White populations (and higher initial Black populations). For Hispanics, it is similarly concentrated among those without at least a four-year degree, but also is likely stronger among residents of counties with higher initial White populations (and lower initial Hispanic populations), highlighting unique racial dynamics. This research adds to a growing body of work showing the importance of examining demographic change at the local level in order to understand some of today's most pressing political and social issues.

Der demografische Wandel hat Deutschland fest im Griff. Die Konsequenzen dieser Entwicklung sind vielfältig und geraten in den letzten Jahren vermehrt in den Blickpunkt gesellschaftspolitischer Debatten und wissenschaftlicher Studien. Dieses Buch beschäftigt sich mit einem Aspekt des demografischen Wandels, der bislang vergleichsweise wenig Aufmerksamkeit erhielt. Seine leitende Fragestellung lautet: Welche Auswirkungen hat die gesellschaftliche Alterung auf die politischen Einstellungen und das politische Verhalten der Bevölkerung in Deutschland? Unter Verwendung verschiedener Daten und Analysemethoden wird dieser Frage aus mehreren Blickwinkeln mit jeweils unterschiedlichen thematischen Schwerpunkten nachgegangen. Dabei werden auch Projektionen zukünftiger Entwicklungen vorgelegt. In englischer Sprache. Demographic change holds Germany firmly in its grip. The consequences of this development are diverse and increasingly have come into the focus of political debates and scientific research over recent years. This book deals with one aspect of demographic change which as of yet has received comparatively little attention. Its basic question is: What consequences does the ageing society have on political attitudes and political behavior of the German population? Using various sources of data and methods of analysis this question is investigated from multiple perspectives, each with a different thematic thrust. Projections of future developments are also provided. Published in English. Reihe Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung - Band 27.

The transformation of a society from socialism to a market economy, in addition to political and economic change, is accompanied by a socio-cultural transition of changing values, goals and social behavior by different groups in the population. It is also accompanied by a psychological transition from an overwhelming dependence of the people on the paternalistic state and its institutions, to individual choice, initiative and effort, and by substantial shifts in the demographic behavior of the population (Kuddo, 1995). The transitional crisis effects many aspects of people's everyday life, and demographic processes are a good indicator of such change.

The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate changes in the demographic situation of the rural population in Azerbaijan. In this context, changes in the population of Azerbaijan in recent years, natural population growth in rural areas, early marriages in rural areas and the current situation with marriages and divorces of the rural population are examined. Research methodology — the research work used statistical indicators related to demography in our country and the world, reports of international organizations. Methods of comparative economic and statistical analysis, generalization, systematic analysis, personal observation and judgment were used.

The aim of the article is to show that the modern civilization of technological, medical, structural and world-view progress determines the negative changes in the structure of families and the growth of the elderly population. Among the research hypotheses, in particular, it should be pointed out that the modern family policy should take into account the procreative context, as well as the family context with the participation of the older generation, as a consumer and participant in market services. The conclusions proposed by the authors concern a number of solutions in the field of social policy. The unfavorable demographic situation in the European Union raises specific challenges for social and demographic policy, among which, we should point out the changes in attitudes and individual behavior towards marriage and starting a family, changes in procreation attitudes, improving the quality of life of all generations, ensuring active participation of all generations in the demographic and socio-economic development of the country. The article has been written using the following research methods: descriptive, comparative and historical analysis.