Suchergebnisse

This online appendix contains data files for the article: Frejka, Tomas: The fertility transition revisited - a cohort perspective. in: CPoS, 42, 2017, pp. 89-116. http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2017-09en

AbstractBangladesh has experienced a rapid national decline in fertility in recent decades, however, fertility rates vary considerably at the sub-national level (i.e., division). These variations are expected to be more pronounced at lower levels of geography (e.g., district level). However, routinely conducted demographic health surveys are designed for national estimates and do not have adequate samples to produce reliable estimate of fertility rates at lower levels of administrative units, particular when considering district level age-specific fertility rates. Data extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey 2014 are used to derive direct estimates of age-specific fertility rates and associated smoothed standard errors. These are used as inputs for developing a small area model, which is expressed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and fitted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The model accounts for variation at different levels—women age-group, division, and district. The modeling results show large reductions in the estimated standards errors and provide consistent estimates of fertility at the detailed district age-specific level. There are significant differences in the fertility levels within and between districts and at the division level. Fertility rates are observed to be higher for Sylhet division and for women aged 20–24 years. We use geo-spatial maps of the fertility rates to visualize the variations over districts, and identify hot and cold-spots to have better targeted local level planning and policy decision making for further reductions in fertility rates in Bangladesh.

AbstractWhere connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables' influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of financial development on fertility rate along with other major indicators in select South Asian economies over the period 1990–2016. The study uses various statistical techniques such as Johansen–Fisher panel co‐integration approaches are employed to examine the long‐run relationship among the variables and for statistically quantile regression is employed. The study finds that the variables under consideration are found to be cointegrated, that is, they are found to be having a long‐term relationship. By using three different measures of financial sector development, it is also observed that financial sector development has invariably led to a declining fertility rate in the south Asian region during the study period.