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Examines issues facing Republican President George W. Bush in his 2004 race for reelection, and assesses potential Democratic presidential candidates.

ABSTRACTInterval judgments are a way of handling preferential and informational imprecision in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this article, we study the use of intervals in the simple multiattribute rating technique (SMART) and SWING weighting methods. We generalize the methods by allowing the reference attribute to be any attribute, not just the most or the least important one, and by allowing the decision maker to reply with intervals to the weight ratio questions to account for his/her judgmental imprecision. We also study the practical and procedural implications of using imprecision intervals in these methods. These include, for example, how to select the reference attribute to identify as many dominated alternatives as possible. Based on the results of a simulation study, we suggest guidelines for how to carry out the weighting process in practice. Computer support can be used to make the process visual and interactive. We describe the WINPRE software for interval SMART/SWING, preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements (PAIRS), and preference programming. The use of interval SMART/SWING is illustrated by a job selection example.

The 'paradox' of swing resides in the expectation that 'if national influences were completely paramount,. swings would not involve identical fractions of the total vote or electorate in each constituency, but a fraction proportional to the prior strength of the party that was losing ground'. The mass of the evidence is however that swings are virtually equal across constituencies. The intention here is to demonstrate that the 'prior proportional' expectation is a mistaken one since it leads to a logical contradiction, and therefore that the phenomenon of equal swing is not paradoxical.

"Captain Swing" had small success in the West Midlands. As Hobs-bawm and Rudé correctly point out, Staffordshire and Shropshire were among those "counties only marginally affected by the labourers' movement". There were few cases of incendiarism and the whole episode in this area was somewhat anticlimacteric in character. Nevertheless the threat of "Captain Swing" in the last months of 1830 and into 1831 did not leave the West Midlands unmoved. It had the incidental effect of uncovering some of the otherwise subterranean rifts and divisions in rural society. In the fragments of evidence that survive, one can see that "Swing" induced a number of responses from the various sections of rural life in Staffordshire and Salop – attitudes were exposed and recriminations voiced. In effect, the fear of conflict rendered explicit social and economic circumstances which otherwise one can only guess at.

We analyze contributor behavior when there are two types of voters: positioned voters, who care about the ideological positions of candidates, and swing voters, who care about only the leadership abilities of candidates. Campaign expenditures, which are funded by contributions, are assumed to influence voters' perceptions of a candidate's ability. We find that the number of swing voters may have unexpected consequences on equilibrium campaign contributions. In particular, total contributions may increase as the number of swing voters decreases.Elections are won by doing two things: mobilizing your base and winning the independent swing voters.(Karl Rove, campaign strategist for George W. Bush)

ABSTRACT: This report provides a methodology for defining and identifying true swing states in US presidential elections. After these states are identified by cross-tabulating high-performing states under the categories of battleground (states with the lowest margin between competitors), shift (states with the highest frequency of flipping from Republican to Democrat or vice-versa), and bellwether (the accuracy of a state to vote concurrently with the winner of the electoral college) during the US presidential elections from 1992 through 2016, an examination is completed to determine any similarities among these states in terms of median household income, population density, racial demographics, political party affiliation, voter behavior, and voter registration. These states are then compared to national averages to determine if the "average swing state" can be identified. Hecht and Schultz utilize a four-point method for identifying swing states (2015). This report attempts to utilize less arbitrary data, using a three-point methodology: battleground, shift, and bellwether. KEYWORDS: swing state, bellwether, battleground, election