Suchergebnisse

1TUGAS DAN TANGGUNG JAWAB BADAN PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA BERDASARKAN PERATURAN DAERAH NOMOR 3 TAHUN 2010 TENTANG PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA DI KABUPATEN PESISIR SELATAN JURNAL Diajukan Guna Melengkapi Sebagian Persyaratan Untuk Mencapai Gelar Sarjana HukumOleh: RULLY INDRA PERMANA NPM: 0810013111031 FAKULTAS HUKUM UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA PADANG20132FAKULTAS HUKUM UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA PERSETUJUAN JURNAL Nama : RULLY INDRA PERMANA Nomor Pokok Mahasiswa : 0810012111031 Program Kekhususan : Hukum Tata Negara Judul Skripsi : Tugas Dan Tanggung Jawab Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Berdasarkan Peraturan Daerah Nomor 3 Tahun 2010 Tentang Penanggulangan Bencana Di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan Telah disetujui pada hari Selasa tanggal Tiga Bulan September tahun Dua Ribu Tiga Belas untuk dipertahankan dihadapan Tim Penguji.1. Nurbeti, S.H., M.H. (Pembimbing I)2. Dr .Sanidjar Pebriharihati R, S.H., M.H. (Pembimbing II)1TUGAS DAN TANGGUNG JAWAB BADAN PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA BERDASARKAN PERATURAN DAERAH NOMOR 3 TAHUN 2010 TENTANG PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA DI KABUPATEN PESISIR SELATAN Rully Indra Permana 1), Nurbeti 2), Sanidjar pebrihariati.R 2)1) Mahasiswa Program Kekhususan Hukum Tata Negara2) Dosen Program Kekhususan Hukum Tata Negara , Fakultas Keguruan Hukum Universitas Bung HattaEmail : indrapermana99@Gmail.com ABSTRACT Indonesian culture and life in the midst of things that smell renewal claiming more advanced and civilized in terms of thinking, working and acting compared with indigenous peoples in ancient times. The issues contained in this paper is 1) What forms of environmental damage that causes natural disasters? 2) What sort of responsibility for disaster management in the South Coastal District?. Authors use the juridical sociological research methods research approach that examines the look and Regulation Legislation issues and connecting with the reality on the ground. Data sources of primary data and secondary data, namely primary data obtained from interviews and secondary data obtained from the study of documents, then the data is processed using qualitative data analysis. Based on these results we can conclude 1. Other forms of environmental degradation in the South Coastal District, 2.forms responsibility for disaster response and responsibilities of local governments in disaster management set out in Article 8, namely: (1) Guarantee the fulfillment of rights and refugee communities affected, (2) protection of society from the impact of disasters, (3) integration of disaster risk reduction and disaster risk reduction, (4) the allocation of disaster relief funds. Keywords:Environment,disaster prevention,non-governmental.PENDAHULUANA. Latar Belakang MasalahIndonesia sebagai negara kepulauan yang secara geografis terletak di daerah khatulistiwa, di antara Benua Asia dan Australia serta di antara Samudera Pasifik dan Hindia, berada pada pertemuan tiga lempeng tektonik utama dunia merupakan wilayah teritorial yang sangat rawan terhadap bencana alam.Posisi geografis dan geodinamik Indonesia telah menempatkan Indonesia sebagai salah satu wilayah yang rawan bencana alam (natural disaster prone region). Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan tempat dimana tiga lempeng besar dunia bertemu, yaitu lempeng Indo-Australia, lempeng Eurasia, dan lempeng Pasifik. Interaksi antar lempeng-lempeng tersebut lebih lanjut menempatkan Indonesia sebagai wilayah yang memiliki aktivitas kegunungapian dan kegempaan yang cukup tinggi. Lebih dari itu, proses dinamika lempeng yang cukup intensif juga telah membentuk relief permukaan bumi yang khas dan sangat bervariasi, dari wilayah pegunungan dengan lereng-lerengnya yang curam dan seakan menyiratkan potensi2longsor yang tinggi hingga wilayah yang landai sepanjang pantai dengan potensi ancaman banjir, penurunan tanah dan tsunaminya. Lingkungan hidup merupakan anugerah Tuhan Yang Maha Esa yang wajib dilestarikan dan dikembangkan kemampuannya agar tetap dapat menjadi sumber penunjang hidup bagi manusia dan makhluk hidup lainnya demi kelangsungan dan peningkatan kualitas hidup itu sendiri. Lingkungan hidup adalah ruang yang ditempati oleh manusia bersama makhluk hidup lainnya. Manusia dan makhluk hidup lainnya tentu tidak berdiri sendiri dalam proses kehidupan, saling berinteraksi, dan membutuhkan satu sama lainnya. Kehidupan yang ditandai dengan interaksi dan saling ketergantungan secara teratur merupakan tatanan ekosistem yang di dalamnya mengandung esensi penting, dimana lingkungan hidup sebagai satu kesatuan yang tidak dapat dibicarakan secara terpisah. Maka dari itu penulis tertarik untuk membahas dan mengkaji persoalan lingkungan dan menuangkannya ke dalam sebuah tulisan ilmiah yang berjudul: "Tugas Dan Tanggung Jawab Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah Di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan Berdasarkan Perda Nomor 30 Tahun 2010 Tentang Penanggulangan Bencana".Metodologi Metode penelitian merupakan hal yang sangat penting dalam penelitian skripsi ini, karena metode penelitian dapat menentukan langkah-langkah dari suatu penulisan, baik mengenai pendekatan masalah, teknik pengumpulan data dan sumber data maupun analisis datanya. Oleh karena itu, demi mencapai tujuan dari penulisan ini, maka metode penelitian yang dipakai sebagai dasar penulisan ini, yaitu sebagai berikut:1. Pendekatan MasalahPenelitian ini menggunakan metode Pendekatan Yuridis Sosiologis yaitu berdasarkan pada peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku dikaitkan dengan apa yang terjadi di lapangan (pelaksanaan), sehingga dalam penelitian ini peneliti menggunakan bahan hukum.a. Sumber data1) Data PrimerData primer merupakan sumber data yang diperoleh secara langsung dari informan. Di dalam penelitian ini yang akan menjadi informan adalah pejabat Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan.2) Data SekunderData yang diperoleh peneliti dari Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah3(BPBD) Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan. Selain itu penulis juga menggunakan data sebagai berikut:a. Bahan Hukum Primer yaitu mempelajari peraturan perundang-undangan tentang Penanggulangan Bencana dan Peraturan-peraturan lainnya yang terkait yaitu:1) Undang-Undang No 32 Tahun 2009 tentang Perlindungan dan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup (UUPPLH),2) Undang-Undang No 24 Tahun 2007 tentang Penanggulangan Bencana,3) Peraturan Presiden Republik Indonesia No 8 Tahun 2008 tentang Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana,4) Peraturan Daerah No 3 Tahun 2010 tentang Penanggulangan Bencana.b. Bahan Hukum Sekunder, yaitu mempelajari berbagai literatur (buku-buku, makalah, laporan penelitian, jurnal) yang berkaitan dengan masalah Penanggulangan Bencana serta kerusakan lingkungan.2. Teknik Pengumpulan dataa. Studi dokumen adalah dengan melakukan pengambilan objek dokumen-dokumen hasil monitoring atau objek surat dankliping Koran yang relevan dengan penelitian ini.b. Wawancara yaitu dengan melakukan wawancara bebas dengan para informan yaitu para pejabat Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan.3. Pengolahan dan Analisis DataMengumpulkan data dengan mengadakan pencatatan yang diambil dari dokumen, buku laporan dan buku catatan lainnya yang berhubungan dengan materi yang ditulis. Pengolahan data yang diperoleh untuk kemudian diolah lebih lanjut secara kualitatif dan dirumuskan secara sistematis dan dikaitkan dengan apa yang terjadi dalam pelaksanaannya di dalam kenyataan lalu setelah itu dikaitkan dengan pokok-pokok permasalahan dalam penulisan ini. Hasil Penelitian dan Pembahasan Pembahasan hasil penelitian ini berdasarkan pada hasil analisis data yang diperoleh, bahwa:A. Bentuk-Bentuk Kerusakan Lingkungan Yang Menyebabkan Bencana Alam di Kabupaten Pesisir SelatanSecara geografis dengan strategi bencana daerah kabupaten pesisir selatan berada disekitar 0059'-228' LS dan 10018' yang merupakan wilayah4administrasi dengan luas 5749,89 m2. Secara khusus kabupaten pesisir selatan memiliki topografi wilayah berbukit-bukit dengan ketinggian berkisar 0-1000m dari permukaan laut,memiliki 57 pulau serta dialiri sebanyak 18 sungai dengan 11 sungai besar dan 7 sungai kecil. Pesisir selatan merupakan iklim tropis dengan temperatur bervariasi antara 230C hingga 320C disiang hari dan 20 C 280C dimalam hari dengan curah hujan rata-rata 224,63 mm perbulan. Kondisi permukaan lahan kabupaten pesisir selatan dewasa ini adalah sebagai besar lahan hutan yaitu 70,54% hutan lebat dan 13,37% hutan belukar,lahan sawah 6,07%,perkebunan, 2,30% dan sisanya adalah perkampunga, kebun campuran dan kebun rakyat lainnya: 1 Bentuk-bentuk bencana Alam di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan. berikut ini:a) TsunamiGelombang air laut yang membawa material baik berupa sisa-sisa bangunan, tumbuhan dan material lainnya menghempas segala sesuatu yang berdiri di dataran pantai dengan kekuatan dahsyat. Bangunan yang mempunyai dimensi lebar dinding sejajar dengan garis pantai atau tegak lurus dengan arah datangnya gelombang akan mendapat tekanan yang paling kuat sehingga akan mengalamikerusakan yang paling parah. Gelombang air ini juga akan menggerus pondasi dan menyeret apapun yang berdiri lepas di pemukiman dataran pantai dan dibawa ke laut. Contoh di wilayah pesisir selatan di kecamatan linggo sari baganti pada tahun 2007 terjadi tsunami yang berakibat rusaknya pemukiman tempat tinggal penduduk setempat dan hancurnya kapal-kapal nelayan setempat.b) Gempa BumiGempa bumi adalah getaran yang ditimbulkan karena adanya gerakan endogen. Semakin besar kekuatan gempa, maka akan menimbulkan kerusakan yang semakin parah di muka bumi. Gempa bumi menyebabkan bangunan-bangunan retak atau hancur, struktur batuan rusak, aliran-aliran sungai bawah tanah terputus, jaringan pipa dan saluran bawah tanah rusak, dan sebagainya. Jika kekuatan gempa bumi melanda lautan, maka akan menimbulkan tsunami, yaitu arus gelombang pasang air laut yang menghempas daratan dengan kecepatan yang sangat tinggi.5Contoh yang paling nyata adalah pada tahun 2007 di kecamatan lunang silaut terjadi gempa bumi dengan kekutan 6,9 skala richter yang mengakibatkan kerusakan -kerusakan bangunan dan menimbulkan banyak kerugian secara materil dan spritual.c) BanjirBanjir merupakan salah satu bentuk fenomena alam yang unik. Dikatakan unik karena banjir dapat terjadi karena murni gejala alam dan dapat juga karena dampak dari ulah manusia sendiri. Banjir dikatakan sebagai gejala alam murni jika kondisi alam memang memengaruhi terjadinya banjir, misalnya hujan yang turun terus menerus, terjadi di daerah basin, dataran rendah, atau di lembah-lembah sungai. Selain itu, banjir dapat juga disebabkan karena ulah manusia, misalnya karena penggundulan hutan di kawasan resapan, timbunan sampah yang menyumbat aliran air, ataupun karena rusaknya dan atau pintu pengendali aliran air. Kerugian yang ditimbulkan akibat banjir, antara lain, hilangnya lapisan permukaan tanah yang subur karena tererosi aliran air, rusaknya tanaman, dan rusaknya berbagai bangunan hasil budidaya manusia. Bencana banjir bandang merupakan salah satu bencana alam yang hampir setiap musim penghujan melanda di beberapa wilayah di Wilayah Pesisir Selatan Kecamatan Lengayang pada Tahun 2011 yang mengakibatkan hilangnya korban jiwa berjumlah 6 orang.d) Tanah LongsorKarakteristik tanah longsor hampir sama dengan karakteristik banjir. Bencana alam ini dapat terjadi karena proses alam ataupun karena dampak kecerobohan manusia. Bencana alam ini dapat merusak struktur tanah, merusak lahan pertanian, pemukiman, sarana dan prasarana penduduk serta berbagai bangunan lainnya. Peristiwa tanah longsor pada umumnya melanda beberapa wilayah Indonesia yang memiliki topografi agak miring atau berlereng curam. Di wilayah Pesisir Selatan dibeberapa Wilayah Kecamatan Tarusan, Kecamatan Bayang, IV jurai, Batang Kapas, sutera dan ranah pesisir yang selama musim hujan terjadi banyak titik rawan longsor6yang mengakibatkan kerusakan bangunan atau tempat tinggal penduduk setempat, terputusnya jalur transportasi darat, dan rusaknya areal pertanian dan perkebunan.e) Badai/Angin TopanAngin topan terjadi karena perbedaan tekanan udara yang sangat mencolok di suatu daerah sehingga menyebabkan angin bertiup lebih kencang. Di beberapa belahan dunia, bahkan sering terjadi pusaran angin. Bencana alam ini pada umumnya merusakkan berbagai tumbuhan, memorakporandakan berbagai bangunan, sarana infrastruktur dan dapat membahayakan penerbangan. Salah satu contohnya adalah di wilayah Pesisir Selatan Kecamatan IV Jurai, Sutera, dan Lengayang yang mengakibat kerusakan tempat tinggal penduduk dan kerusakan fasilitas umum .B. Bentuk Tanggung Jawab Pemerintah Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan terhadap Penanggulangan Bencana Alam di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatana. Tanggung Jawab Pemerintah Daerah:Tanggung jawab Pemerintah Daerah dalam Penanggulangan Bencana yaitu:1. Penjaminan pemenuhan hak masyarakat dan pengungsi yang terkena bencana sesuai dengan standar pelayanan minimum;2. Perlindungan masyarakat dari dampak bencana;3. Pengurangan risiko bencana dan pemaduan pengurangan risiko bencana dengan program pembangunan; dan4. Pengalokasian dana penanggulangan bencana dalam anggaran pendapatan belanja daerah yang memadai.b. Wewenang Pemerintah Daerah:Wewenang pemerintah daerah dalam penanggulangan bencana yaitu:1. Penetapan kebijakan penanggulangan bencana pada wilayahnya selaras dengan kebijakan pembangunan daerah;2. Pembuatan perencanaan pembangunan yang memasukkan unsur-unsur kebijakan penanggulangan bencana;3. Pelaksanaan kebijakan kerja sama dalam penanggulangan bencana dengan provinsi dan/atau kabupaten/kota lain;4. Pengaturan penggunaan teknologi yang berpotensi sebagai sumber ancaman atau bahaya bencana pada wilayahnya;75. Perumusan kebijakan pencegahan penguasaan dan pengurasan sumber daya alam yang melebihi kemampuan alam pada wilayahnya; dan6. Pengendalian pengumpulan dan penyaluran uang atau barang pada wilayahnya (pengawasan terhadap penyelenggaraan pengumpulan uang atau barang berskala provinsi, kabupaten/kota yang diselenggarakan oleh masyarakat, termasuk pemberian ijin yang menjadi kewenangan gubernur/bupati/walikota sesuai dengan kewenangannya)Berdasarkan Peraturan Daerah Nomor 3 Tahun 2010 tentang penanggulangan bencana yaitu:(1) Pemerintah daerah menjadi penanggung jawab dalam penyelenggaraan penanggulangan bencana(2) Dalam melaksanakan tanggung jawab penanggulangan bencana pemerintah daerah melimpahkan tugas pokok dan fungsinya kepada BPBD(3) Tugas pokok dan fungsi sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (2) yang bersifat sangat teknis dilaksanakan oleh BPBD(4) BPBD dalam melaksanakan tugas dan fungsinya dapat melibatkan unsur-unsur antara lain masyarakat,lembaga kemasyarakatan, lembaga usaha, lembaga internasional.Adapun tugas dan BPBD yaitu:1. Menetapkan pedoman dan pengarahan sesuai dengan kebijakan pemerintah daerah dan badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana terhadap usaha penanggulangan bencana yang mencakup pencegahan bencana, penanganan darurat, rehabilitasi serta rekonstruksi secara adil dan setara.2. Menetapkan standarisasi serta kebutuhan penyelenggaraan penanggulangan bencana berdasarkan peraturan perundang undangan.3. Menyusun, menetapkan dan menginformasikan peta rawan bencana.4. Menyusun dan menetapkan prosedur tetap penanganan bencana.5. Melaksanakan penyelenggaraan penanggulangan bencana pada wilayahnya.6. Melaporkan penyelenggaraan penanggulangan bencana kepada daerah setiap sebulan sekali dalam kondisi normal dan setiap saat dalam kondisi darurat bencana.7. Mengendalikan pengumpulan dan penyaluran uang dan barang.8. Mempertanggungjawabkan penggunaan anggaran yang diterima8dari anggaran pendapatan dan belanja daerah.Melaksanakan kewajiban lain sesuai dengan peraturan perundang undangan. Kesimpulan Dari hasil penelitian yang telah peneliti lakukan, maka dapat diambil kesimpulan, Bentuk-bentuk kerusakan lingkungan yang menyebabkan bencana alam di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan yaitu kerusakan lingkungan akibat proses alam seperti tsunami, gempa bumi, banjir, tanah longsor, dan badai angin topan,serta Bentuk tanggung jawab pemerintah Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan terhadap penanggulangan bencana alam di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan yaitu Tanggung jawab Pemerintah Daerah dalam Penanggulangan Bencana Ucapan Terima Kasih Pada kesempatan ini penulis mengucapkan terima kasih banyak kepada pihak-pihak yang sudah membantu penulis selama menyelesaikan skripsi. Pihak-pihak yang dengan sabar membimbing dan selalu memotivasi penulis dalam menyelesaikan skripsi.Pihak tersebut adalah: (1) Ibu Nurbeti, S.H., M.H, selaku Pembimbing I dan Wakil Dekan Fakultas Hukum (2) Ibu Dr. Sanidjar Pebrihariati. R, S.H., M.H, selaku Pembimbing II (3) Bapak Suamperi, S.H., M.H selaku Ketua bagian Hukum Tata Negara Fakultas Hukum. (4) Keluarga tercinta yang selalu memberi dukungan moril maupun materi. (5) Adik-adik penulis, (6) kekasih penulis, (7) serta Teman-teman seperjuangan. Daftar PustakaA. Buku-bukuAsrul Pramudya, 2008. Kajian Pengelolaan Daratan Pesisir Berbasis Zonasi di Provinsi Jambi, Semarang: Thesis Pasca Sarjana Magister Teknik Sipil Universitas Diponegoro. Arsan Andi, I Made, 2007. Batas Maritim Antar Negara Sebuah Tinjauan Teknis dan Yuridis, Yogyakarta : Gadjah Mada Univ. Press. Faried Ali, 1996. Hukum Tata Pemerintahan dan Proses Legislatif Indonesia, Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada. Huala Adolf, 1996. Aspek-aspek Negara Dalam Hukum Internasional, Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada. Jimly Asshiddiqie, 2007. Pokok-pokok Hukum Tata Negara Indonesia Pasca Reformasi, Jakarta : Bhuana Ilmu Populer. Melda Kamil, 2007. Adriano Hukum Internasional Hukum yang Hidup, Jakarta: Diadit Media. Mukhtasor, 2007. Pencemaran Pesisir dan Laut, Jakarta; Pradnya Paramita. Soerjono Soekanto dan Sri Mamudji, 1990. Penelitian Hukum Suatu Tinjauan Singkat, Rajawali Pers. Jakarta. Syamsuharya Bethan, 2008. Penerapan Prinsip Hukum Pelestarian Fungsi Lingkungan Hidup dalam Aktifitas Industri Nasional (Sebuah Upaya Penyelamatan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehidupan Antar Generasi), Bandung: Alumni.9Zainuddin Ali, 2010. Metode Penelitian Hukum, Sinar Grafika, Jakarta.B. Karya IlmiahBadan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Departemen Luar Negeri, 1986. Perjuangan Indonesia di Bidang Hukum Laut, Jakarta : Deplu, 1986 Samsul Arifin, Permasalahan Lingkungan Hidup di Sumut, materi perkuliahan disampaikan pada perkuliahan Hukum Lingkungan Administrasi pada tanggal 4/10/2010 di kelas regular A, Program Pasca Sarjana Magister Ilmu Hukum.C. Perundang-undanganUndang-Undang No 24 Tahun 2007 tentang Penanggulangan Bencana, Undang-Undang No 32 Tahun 2009 tentang Perlindungan dan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup (UUPPLH) Peraturan Presiden Republik Indonesia No 8 Tahun 2008 tentang Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana Peraturan Daerah No 3 Tahun 2010 tentang Penanggulangan Bencana di Kabupaten Pesisir selatan

Among the various natural hazards, mass movements (MM) are probably the most damaging to the natural and human environment in the Mediterranean countries, including Lebanon which represents a good case study of mountainous landscape. Although affecting vast areas in the country, the phenomenon was not studied at regional scale, and related maps are still lacking. Therefore, this research deals with the use of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in studying MM in Lebanon. In this context, the first part reviews existing knowledge on the topics of mass movements (MM) specifically in the Mediterranean region, and defines research gaps. It exposes the diverse types of MM, their magnitudes, the causative agents and their bad consequences. It clarifies confusions related to MM-terms (hazard, susceptibility, risk, etc.), and compares the efficiencies of the most used methods for MM susceptibility/hazard zonation. It includes also a statement on remote sensing and GIS benefits and constraints in mass movement studies, pointing out possible ways of research. The second part is dedicated to the detailed description of the study area "the Mediteranean slopes of central to north Lebanon" within Lebanon. Physical/morphodynamic and socioeconomic characteristics of the area are exposed, as well as the natural hazards, MM events, their socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures. All previous studies about MM hazard in Lebanon are reviewed. The studied area, extending from the Mediterranean coast to around 3000 m elevation, covers ~36% of the total area of Lebanon. It represents the geoenvironmental diversity of this country in terms of geology, soil, hydrography, land cover and climate. It is characterized by problematic human activities (e.g., chaotic urban expansion, artificial recharge of groundwater, overgrazing, forest fire) enhancing environmental decline and inducing MM, with minimal government control. The third part compares the applicability of different satellite sensors (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) and preferred image processing techniques (False Color Composite "FCC", Pansharpen, Principal component analysis "PCA", Anaglyph) for the mapping of MM recognized as landslides, rock/debris falls and earth flows. Results from the imagery have been validated by field surveys and analysis of IKONOS imagery (1 m) acquired in some locations witnessing major MM during long periods. Then, levels of accuracies of detected MM from satellite imageries were plotted. This study has demonstrated that the anaglyph produced from the two panchromatic stereo-pairs SPOT4 images remains the most effective tool setting the needed 3-D properties for visual interpretation and showing maximum accuracy of 69%. The PCA pan-sharpen Landsat TM-IRS image gave better results in detecting MM, among other processing techniques, with maximum accuracy level of 62%. The errors in interpretation fluctuate not only according to the processing technique, but also due to the difference in MM type. They are minimal once 3D anaglyph SPOT4 is considered, varying between 31% (landslides), 36% (rock and debris falls) and reaching 46% in the case of earth and debris flows. The fourth part explores relationships between MM occurrence and different factor terrain parameters. Parameters expressed by: 1- preconditioning factors, like: elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, distance to quarries, soil type, distance to drainage line, distance to water sources, land cover/use, and proximity to roads, and 2- triggering MM factors, like: rainfall quantity, seismic events,floods and forest fires, were correlated with MM using GIS-approaches. This study indicates, depending on bivariate remote sensing and GIS statistical correlations (Kendall Tau-b correlation), that lithology is the most influencing on MM occurrence, having the highest correlation with other parameters (i.e. 7 times correlated at 1% level of significance and 3 times at 5%). It also shows that statistical correlations to mass movements exist best between parameters at the following decreasing order of importance: soil type/distance to water sources (acting similarly on MM occurrence), karst/distance to quarries/land cover-use, proximity to faults, slope gradient/proximity to roads/floods, seismic events, elevation/slope aspect/forest fires. These correlations were verified and checked through field observations and explained using univariate statistical correlations. Therefore, they could be extrapolated to other Mediterranean countries having similar geoenvironmental conditions. The fifth part proposes a mathematical decision making method - Valuing Analytical Bi- Univariate (VABU) that considers two-level weights for mapping MM susceptibility/hazard (1:50,000 cartographic scale) within the study area. The reliability of this method is examined through field surveys and depending on a GIS comparison with other statistical methods - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (depending on one weight level) and Information Value (InfoVal) (requiring detailed measurements of MM areas). Three susceptibility maps were derived using preconditioning parameters, while hazard maps were produced from triggering ones. The coincidence values of overlapping susceptibility maps were found to be equal to 47.5% (VABU/VAA), 54% (VABU/InfoVal) and 38% (VAA/InfoVal). The agreement between hazard maps showed closer values than susceptibility ones, oscillating between 36.5% (VAA/InfoVal), 39% (VABU/VAA), and 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). Field verification indicates that the total precision of the produced susceptibility maps ranges from 52.5% (VAA method), 67.5% (InfoVal method) and 77.5% (VABU method). This demonstrates the efficiency of our method, which consequently can be adopted for predictive mapping of MM susceptibility/hazard in other areas in Lebanon and may be easily extrapolated using the functional capacities of GIS. The sixth part predicts the geographic distribution and volume of block falls (m3) across the study area using GIS decision-tree modelling. Such mapping was unavailable in Lebanon, but also in many other countries putting effort on landslide research rather than other types of MM. Several decision-tree models were developed using (1) all terrain parameters, (2) topographic parameters only, (3) geologic parameters only, and adopting various processing techniques (pruned and unpruned trees). The best regression tree model combined all parameters and explained 80% of the variability in field blocks falls' measurements. The unpruned model built using four geological parameters (lithology, soil type, proximity to fault line, and karst type) seems also interesting, classifying 68% of block falls and referring to a small amount of input data (4 parameters). The produced predictive quantitative block falls' map at 1:50,000 appears extremely useful for decision-making, helping adoption of mitigation measures to reduce the occurrence of harmful block falls. The seventh part focuses on monitoring MM activity through integrating space borne radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques. ERS radar imageries were processed using InSAR and permanent scatters techniques. The analysis showed difficulties in detecting ground deformations due to MM. Nevertheless, the analysis is still in its preliminary stage and future planned work will take into consideration other manipulating procedures for detecting the displacements. On the other hand, a GPS installation in Hammana area; one of the Lebanese villages lying in a major landslide, was conducted. Two campaigns were raised, but results are still lacking since there is not enough data accumulation. More observations are still needed to build up a comprehensive picture on the direction and velocity of the movement. ; Parmi les aléas naturels, les mouvements de terrain (MT) sont probablement les plus nuisibles à l'environnement naturel et humain, notamment dans les pays méditerranéens, incluant le Liban qui représente un bon cas d'étude de région montagneuse. Ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle régionale bien qu'il affecte de vastes zones dans ce pays, et les cartes d'aléa manquent encore. La recherche présentée ici est consacrée à l'utilisation des techniques de télédétection et des systèmes d'informations géographiques (SIG), pour l'étude des MT au Liban. La première partie passe en revue les connaissances existantes sur le thème des mouvements de terrain (MT), plus spécifiquement dans la région méditerranéenne, et définit les lacunes de recherche. Elle expose les divers types existants de MT, leurs magnitudes, les agents causatifs, et leurs effets. Elle clarifie la terminologie utilisée pour les MT (aléa, susceptibilité, risque, etc.), et compare les méthodes les plus utilisées pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité aux MT. Elle présente aussi un état des avantages et problèmes de la télédétection et du SIG dans les études de mouvements de terrain, en insistant sur les voies possibles de recherche. La deuxième partie est consacrée à la description détaillée de la région d'étude qui couvre les versants méditerranéens du nord du Liban central. Les caractéristiques physiques/morphodynamiques et socio-économiques de cette région sont exposées, ainsi que les aléas naturels, les événements de MT, les impacts socio-économiques et les mesures de conservation. Toutes les études sur l'aléa MT au Liban sont revisitées. La région d'étude, s'étendant de la côte méditerranéenne jusqu'à 3000 m d'altitude, couvre à peu près 36 % de la superficie totale du Liban. Elle est représentative de la diversité géo-environnementale de ce pays en termes de géologie, sol, hydrographie, occupation du sol et climat. Elle se caractérise par des activités humaines problématiques (par exemple une expansion urbaine chaotique, la recharge artificielle des eaux souterraines, un surpâturage, des incendies de forêt), accroissant la dégradation de l'environnement et induisant les MT, avec un contrôle gouvernemental minime. La troisième compare l'efficacité de différents capteurs satellitaires à résolutions variées (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) et diverses techniques de traitement d'image (composition colorée, fusion, analyse en composantes principales ACP, vision stéréoscopique) pour la détection visuelle des mouvements de terrain classés en glissements, éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris, et coulées de boue. Les résultats ont été validés sur le terrain et en analysant des images IKONOS (1 m) acquises en certaines localités menacées par des MT sur de longues périodes. Ensuite, les niveaux de précision de la détection des MT à partir des images satellitaires ont été calculés. Cette étude a montré que l'anaglyphe produit à partir des images panchromatiques stéréo SPOT4 reste l'outil le plus efficace grâce aux caractéristiques 3D jouant un rôle essentiel dans l'interprétation visuelle et montrant un niveau de précision (pourcentage des MT détectés et vérifiés sur le terrain) maximal de 69 %. De plus, l'image de fusion Landsat TM-IRS, calculée par ACP, fournit des résultats de détection des MT meilleurs que les autres techniques, avec un niveau de précision de 62 %. Les erreurs d'interprétation fluctuent non seulement en fonction de la technique de traitement utilisée, mais aussi en fonction des types de MT. Elles sont minimes quand l'anaglyphe (3D) SPOT4 est pris en considération, variant de 31 % (glissements), 36 % (éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris) à 46 % dans le cas des coulées de boue. La quatrième partie explore les relations entre l'occurrence de MT et les paramètres du terrain. Ces paramètres sont: 1- les facteurs de prédisposition, comme l'altitude, la pente en gradient, l'aspect de pente, la courbure de pente, la lithologie, la proximité aux failles, le type de karst, la distance aux carrières, le type de sol, la distance aux réseaux de drainage, la distance aux sources, l'occupation/utilisation du sol et la proximité aux routes, et 2- les facteurs déclenchants, comme la quantité de pluies, les événements sismiques, les inondations et les incendies de forêt, qui ont été corrélés avec les MT en utilisant les approches SIG. Cette étude montre, en se basant sur les corrélations statistiques bi-variées satellitaires et SIG (corrélation Kendal Tau-b), que la lithologie est ce qui influence le plus l'occurrence des MT, puisqu'elle a la corrélation la plus élevée avec les autres paramètres (7 fois corrélée à un niveau de signification de 1 %, et 3 fois à 5 %). Elle montre aussi que les corrélations statistiques entre ces paramètres et les mouvements de terrain existent suivant l'ordre d'importance décroissant suivant : type de sol/distance aux sources (agissant de manière similaire sur l'occurrence des MT), karst/distance aux carrières/occupation/utilisation du sol, proximité aux failles, gradient de pente/proximité aux routes/inondations, événements sismiques, altitude/aspect de pente/incendies de forêt. Ces corrélations sont vérifiées sur le terrain et expliquées en utilisant des corrélations statistiques uni-variées. Par conséquent, elles peuvent être extrapolées à d'autres pays méditerranéens caractérisés par des conditions géoenvironnementales similaires. La cinquième partie propose une méthode mathématique décisionnelle (méthode analytique bi-univariée d'évaluation ou "Valuing Analytical Bi-Univariate (VABU)") qui considère deux niveaux de pondération pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité des MT (échelle 1/50000) dans la région d'étude. La fiabilité de cette méthode est examinée sur le terrain et en la comparant avec d'autres méthodes statistiques - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (un seul niveau d'évaluation) and Information Value (InfoVal) (nécessitant des mesures détaillées des MT). Trois cartes de susceptibilité sont dérivées en utilisant les facteurs conditionnant l'occurrence des MT, tandis que les cartes d'aléa sont produites à partir des facteurs déclenchants. Les valeurs de coïncidence de superposition des cartes de susceptibilité sont de 47,5 % (VABU/VAA), 54 % (VABU/InfoVal) et 38% (VAA/InfoVal), respectivement. L'accord entre les cartes d'aléas montre des valeurs proches de celles des cartes de susceptibilité, variant entre 36,5 % (VAA/InfoVal), 39 % (VABU/VAA), et 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). La validation sur le terrain indique que la précision totale des cartes de susceptibilité produites varie entre 52,5% (méthode VAA), 67,5% (méthode InfoVal) et 77,5% (méthode VABU). Cela démontre l'efficacité de notre méthode qui peut être adoptée pour une cartographie prédictive de l'aléa et de la susceptibilité des MT dans d'autres régions au Liban, et peut être aussi aisément extrapolée en utilisant les capacités fonctionnelles du SIG. La sixième partie prédit la distribution géographique et le volume des blocs rocheux (m3) dans la région d'étude en utilisant la modélisation suivant un arbre décisionnel. Une telle cartographie est indisponible au Liban, mais aussi dans d'autres pays qui portent plutôt leur effort sur la recherche des glissements plutôt que les autres types de MT. Plusieurs modèles d'arbres décisionnels ont été développés en utilisant, (1) tous les paramètres de terrain, (2) les paramètres topographiques uniquement, (3) les paramètres géologiques, et en adoptant plusieurs techniques de traitement. Le meilleur arbre de régression combine tous les paramètres et explique 80 % de la variabilité dans les mesures des blocs rocheux sur le terrain. Le modèle construit en utilisant les quatre paramètres géologiques (lithologie, type de sol, proximité aux failles et type de karst) parait aussi intéressant car il classe 68 % des blocs rocheux tout en se référant à un petit nombre de données d'entrée (4 paramètres). La carte produite de 'prédiction quantitative des blocs rocheux' à l'échelle du 1/50 000 apparait extrêmement utile pour la décision, aidant à l'adoption des mesures de conservation afin de réduire l'occurrence de movements nuisibles de blocs rocheux. La septième partie s'intéresse à la surveillance de l'activité des MT à travers l'intégration des données spatiales radar et des techniques GPS (Système de positionnement global). Les données radar ERS sont traitées en utilisant les techniques InSAR et des réflecteurs permanents. Cette analyse montre des difficultés pour la détection des MT. Cependant, elle est jusqu'à présent préliminaire, et un plan de travail futur prendra en considération d'autres traitements pour la détection des déplacements. D'un autre côté, une installation GPS a été effectuée dans la région de Hammana, un village libanais menacé par un grand glissement. Deux campagnes ont été rassemblées, mais les résultats manquent encore puisqu'il n'y a pas des données accumulées suffisantes. Plus d'observations sont nécessaires afin de construire une représentation compréhensive de la direction et de la vitesse du mouvement.

Among the various natural hazards, mass movements (MM) are probably the most damaging to the natural and human environment in the Mediterranean countries, including Lebanon which represents a good case study of mountainous landscape. Although affecting vast areas in the country, the phenomenon was not studied at regional scale, and related maps are still lacking. Therefore, this research deals with the use of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in studying MM in Lebanon. In this context, the first part reviews existing knowledge on the topics of mass movements (MM) specifically in the Mediterranean region, and defines research gaps. It exposes the diverse types of MM, their magnitudes, the causative agents and their bad consequences. It clarifies confusions related to MM-terms (hazard, susceptibility, risk, etc.), and compares the efficiencies of the most used methods for MM susceptibility/hazard zonation. It includes also a statement on remote sensing and GIS benefits and constraints in mass movement studies, pointing out possible ways of research. The second part is dedicated to the detailed description of the study area "the Mediteranean slopes of central to north Lebanon" within Lebanon. Physical/morphodynamic and socioeconomic characteristics of the area are exposed, as well as the natural hazards, MM events, their socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures. All previous studies about MM hazard in Lebanon are reviewed. The studied area, extending from the Mediterranean coast to around 3000 m elevation, covers ~36% of the total area of Lebanon. It represents the geoenvironmental diversity of this country in terms of geology, soil, hydrography, land cover and climate. It is characterized by problematic human activities (e.g., chaotic urban expansion, artificial recharge of groundwater, overgrazing, forest fire) enhancing environmental decline and inducing MM, with minimal government control. The third part compares the applicability of different satellite sensors (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) and preferred image processing techniques (False Color Composite "FCC", Pansharpen, Principal component analysis "PCA", Anaglyph) for the mapping of MM recognized as landslides, rock/debris falls and earth flows. Results from the imagery have been validated by field surveys and analysis of IKONOS imagery (1 m) acquired in some locations witnessing major MM during long periods. Then, levels of accuracies of detected MM from satellite imageries were plotted. This study has demonstrated that the anaglyph produced from the two panchromatic stereo-pairs SPOT4 images remains the most effective tool setting the needed 3-D properties for visual interpretation and showing maximum accuracy of 69%. The PCA pan-sharpen Landsat TM-IRS image gave better results in detecting MM, among other processing techniques, with maximum accuracy level of 62%. The errors in interpretation fluctuate not only according to the processing technique, but also due to the difference in MM type. They are minimal once 3D anaglyph SPOT4 is considered, varying between 31% (landslides), 36% (rock and debris falls) and reaching 46% in the case of earth and debris flows. The fourth part explores relationships between MM occurrence and different factor terrain parameters. Parameters expressed by: 1- preconditioning factors, like: elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, distance to quarries, soil type, distance to drainage line, distance to water sources, land cover/use, and proximity to roads, and 2- triggering MM factors, like: rainfall quantity, seismic events,floods and forest fires, were correlated with MM using GIS-approaches. This study indicates, depending on bivariate remote sensing and GIS statistical correlations (Kendall Tau-b correlation), that lithology is the most influencing on MM occurrence, having the highest correlation with other parameters (i.e. 7 times correlated at 1% level of significance and 3 times at 5%). It also shows that statistical correlations to mass movements exist best between parameters at the following decreasing order of importance: soil type/distance to water sources (acting similarly on MM occurrence), karst/distance to quarries/land cover-use, proximity to faults, slope gradient/proximity to roads/floods, seismic events, elevation/slope aspect/forest fires. These correlations were verified and checked through field observations and explained using univariate statistical correlations. Therefore, they could be extrapolated to other Mediterranean countries having similar geoenvironmental conditions. The fifth part proposes a mathematical decision making method - Valuing Analytical Bi- Univariate (VABU) that considers two-level weights for mapping MM susceptibility/hazard (1:50,000 cartographic scale) within the study area. The reliability of this method is examined through field surveys and depending on a GIS comparison with other statistical methods - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (depending on one weight level) and Information Value (InfoVal) (requiring detailed measurements of MM areas). Three susceptibility maps were derived using preconditioning parameters, while hazard maps were produced from triggering ones. The coincidence values of overlapping susceptibility maps were found to be equal to 47.5% (VABU/VAA), 54% (VABU/InfoVal) and 38% (VAA/InfoVal). The agreement between hazard maps showed closer values than susceptibility ones, oscillating between 36.5% (VAA/InfoVal), 39% (VABU/VAA), and 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). Field verification indicates that the total precision of the produced susceptibility maps ranges from 52.5% (VAA method), 67.5% (InfoVal method) and 77.5% (VABU method). This demonstrates the efficiency of our method, which consequently can be adopted for predictive mapping of MM susceptibility/hazard in other areas in Lebanon and may be easily extrapolated using the functional capacities of GIS. The sixth part predicts the geographic distribution and volume of block falls (m3) across the study area using GIS decision-tree modelling. Such mapping was unavailable in Lebanon, but also in many other countries putting effort on landslide research rather than other types of MM. Several decision-tree models were developed using (1) all terrain parameters, (2) topographic parameters only, (3) geologic parameters only, and adopting various processing techniques (pruned and unpruned trees). The best regression tree model combined all parameters and explained 80% of the variability in field blocks falls' measurements. The unpruned model built using four geological parameters (lithology, soil type, proximity to fault line, and karst type) seems also interesting, classifying 68% of block falls and referring to a small amount of input data (4 parameters). The produced predictive quantitative block falls' map at 1:50,000 appears extremely useful for decision-making, helping adoption of mitigation measures to reduce the occurrence of harmful block falls. The seventh part focuses on monitoring MM activity through integrating space borne radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques. ERS radar imageries were processed using InSAR and permanent scatters techniques. The analysis showed difficulties in detecting ground deformations due to MM. Nevertheless, the analysis is still in its preliminary stage and future planned work will take into consideration other manipulating procedures for detecting the displacements. On the other hand, a GPS installation in Hammana area; one of the Lebanese villages lying in a major landslide, was conducted. Two campaigns were raised, but results are still lacking since there is not enough data accumulation. More observations are still needed to build up a comprehensive picture on the direction and velocity of the movement. ; Parmi les aléas naturels, les mouvements de terrain (MT) sont probablement les plus nuisibles à l'environnement naturel et humain, notamment dans les pays méditerranéens, incluant le Liban qui représente un bon cas d'étude de région montagneuse. Ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle régionale bien qu'il affecte de vastes zones dans ce pays, et les cartes d'aléa manquent encore. La recherche présentée ici est consacrée à l'utilisation des techniques de télédétection et des systèmes d'informations géographiques (SIG), pour l'étude des MT au Liban. La première partie passe en revue les connaissances existantes sur le thème des mouvements de terrain (MT), plus spécifiquement dans la région méditerranéenne, et définit les lacunes de recherche. Elle expose les divers types existants de MT, leurs magnitudes, les agents causatifs, et leurs effets. Elle clarifie la terminologie utilisée pour les MT (aléa, susceptibilité, risque, etc.), et compare les méthodes les plus utilisées pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité aux MT. Elle présente aussi un état des avantages et problèmes de la télédétection et du SIG dans les études de mouvements de terrain, en insistant sur les voies possibles de recherche. La deuxième partie est consacrée à la description détaillée de la région d'étude qui couvre les versants méditerranéens du nord du Liban central. Les caractéristiques physiques/morphodynamiques et socio-économiques de cette région sont exposées, ainsi que les aléas naturels, les événements de MT, les impacts socio-économiques et les mesures de conservation. Toutes les études sur l'aléa MT au Liban sont revisitées. La région d'étude, s'étendant de la côte méditerranéenne jusqu'à 3000 m d'altitude, couvre à peu près 36 % de la superficie totale du Liban. Elle est représentative de la diversité géo-environnementale de ce pays en termes de géologie, sol, hydrographie, occupation du sol et climat. Elle se caractérise par des activités humaines problématiques (par exemple une expansion urbaine chaotique, la recharge artificielle des eaux souterraines, un surpâturage, des incendies de forêt), accroissant la dégradation de l'environnement et induisant les MT, avec un contrôle gouvernemental minime. La troisième compare l'efficacité de différents capteurs satellitaires à résolutions variées (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) et diverses techniques de traitement d'image (composition colorée, fusion, analyse en composantes principales ACP, vision stéréoscopique) pour la détection visuelle des mouvements de terrain classés en glissements, éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris, et coulées de boue. Les résultats ont été validés sur le terrain et en analysant des images IKONOS (1 m) acquises en certaines localités menacées par des MT sur de longues périodes. Ensuite, les niveaux de précision de la détection des MT à partir des images satellitaires ont été calculés. Cette étude a montré que l'anaglyphe produit à partir des images panchromatiques stéréo SPOT4 reste l'outil le plus efficace grâce aux caractéristiques 3D jouant un rôle essentiel dans l'interprétation visuelle et montrant un niveau de précision (pourcentage des MT détectés et vérifiés sur le terrain) maximal de 69 %. De plus, l'image de fusion Landsat TM-IRS, calculée par ACP, fournit des résultats de détection des MT meilleurs que les autres techniques, avec un niveau de précision de 62 %. Les erreurs d'interprétation fluctuent non seulement en fonction de la technique de traitement utilisée, mais aussi en fonction des types de MT. Elles sont minimes quand l'anaglyphe (3D) SPOT4 est pris en considération, variant de 31 % (glissements), 36 % (éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris) à 46 % dans le cas des coulées de boue. La quatrième partie explore les relations entre l'occurrence de MT et les paramètres du terrain. Ces paramètres sont: 1- les facteurs de prédisposition, comme l'altitude, la pente en gradient, l'aspect de pente, la courbure de pente, la lithologie, la proximité aux failles, le type de karst, la distance aux carrières, le type de sol, la distance aux réseaux de drainage, la distance aux sources, l'occupation/utilisation du sol et la proximité aux routes, et 2- les facteurs déclenchants, comme la quantité de pluies, les événements sismiques, les inondations et les incendies de forêt, qui ont été corrélés avec les MT en utilisant les approches SIG. Cette étude montre, en se basant sur les corrélations statistiques bi-variées satellitaires et SIG (corrélation Kendal Tau-b), que la lithologie est ce qui influence le plus l'occurrence des MT, puisqu'elle a la corrélation la plus élevée avec les autres paramètres (7 fois corrélée à un niveau de signification de 1 %, et 3 fois à 5 %). Elle montre aussi que les corrélations statistiques entre ces paramètres et les mouvements de terrain existent suivant l'ordre d'importance décroissant suivant : type de sol/distance aux sources (agissant de manière similaire sur l'occurrence des MT), karst/distance aux carrières/occupation/utilisation du sol, proximité aux failles, gradient de pente/proximité aux routes/inondations, événements sismiques, altitude/aspect de pente/incendies de forêt. Ces corrélations sont vérifiées sur le terrain et expliquées en utilisant des corrélations statistiques uni-variées. Par conséquent, elles peuvent être extrapolées à d'autres pays méditerranéens caractérisés par des conditions géoenvironnementales similaires. La cinquième partie propose une méthode mathématique décisionnelle (méthode analytique bi-univariée d'évaluation ou "Valuing Analytical Bi-Univariate (VABU)") qui considère deux niveaux de pondération pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité des MT (échelle 1/50000) dans la région d'étude. La fiabilité de cette méthode est examinée sur le terrain et en la comparant avec d'autres méthodes statistiques - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (un seul niveau d'évaluation) and Information Value (InfoVal) (nécessitant des mesures détaillées des MT). Trois cartes de susceptibilité sont dérivées en utilisant les facteurs conditionnant l'occurrence des MT, tandis que les cartes d'aléa sont produites à partir des facteurs déclenchants. Les valeurs de coïncidence de superposition des cartes de susceptibilité sont de 47,5 % (VABU/VAA), 54 % (VABU/InfoVal) et 38% (VAA/InfoVal), respectivement. L'accord entre les cartes d'aléas montre des valeurs proches de celles des cartes de susceptibilité, variant entre 36,5 % (VAA/InfoVal), 39 % (VABU/VAA), et 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). La validation sur le terrain indique que la précision totale des cartes de susceptibilité produites varie entre 52,5% (méthode VAA), 67,5% (méthode InfoVal) et 77,5% (méthode VABU). Cela démontre l'efficacité de notre méthode qui peut être adoptée pour une cartographie prédictive de l'aléa et de la susceptibilité des MT dans d'autres régions au Liban, et peut être aussi aisément extrapolée en utilisant les capacités fonctionnelles du SIG. La sixième partie prédit la distribution géographique et le volume des blocs rocheux (m3) dans la région d'étude en utilisant la modélisation suivant un arbre décisionnel. Une telle cartographie est indisponible au Liban, mais aussi dans d'autres pays qui portent plutôt leur effort sur la recherche des glissements plutôt que les autres types de MT. Plusieurs modèles d'arbres décisionnels ont été développés en utilisant, (1) tous les paramètres de terrain, (2) les paramètres topographiques uniquement, (3) les paramètres géologiques, et en adoptant plusieurs techniques de traitement. Le meilleur arbre de régression combine tous les paramètres et explique 80 % de la variabilité dans les mesures des blocs rocheux sur le terrain. Le modèle construit en utilisant les quatre paramètres géologiques (lithologie, type de sol, proximité aux failles et type de karst) parait aussi intéressant car il classe 68 % des blocs rocheux tout en se référant à un petit nombre de données d'entrée (4 paramètres). La carte produite de 'prédiction quantitative des blocs rocheux' à l'échelle du 1/50 000 apparait extrêmement utile pour la décision, aidant à l'adoption des mesures de conservation afin de réduire l'occurrence de movements nuisibles de blocs rocheux. La septième partie s'intéresse à la surveillance de l'activité des MT à travers l'intégration des données spatiales radar et des techniques GPS (Système de positionnement global). Les données radar ERS sont traitées en utilisant les techniques InSAR et des réflecteurs permanents. Cette analyse montre des difficultés pour la détection des MT. Cependant, elle est jusqu'à présent préliminaire, et un plan de travail futur prendra en considération d'autres traitements pour la détection des déplacements. D'un autre côté, une installation GPS a été effectuée dans la région de Hammana, un village libanais menacé par un grand glissement. Deux campagnes ont été rassemblées, mais les résultats manquent encore puisqu'il n'y a pas des données accumulées suffisantes. Plus d'observations sont nécessaires afin de construire une représentation compréhensive de la direction et de la vitesse du mouvement.

Tesi en modalitat de cotutela: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya i Aalborg Universitet ; Business Intelligence tools support making better business decisions by analyzing available organizational data. Data Warehouses (DWs), typically structured with the Multidimensional (MD) model, are used to store data from different internal and external sources processed using Extract-Transformation-Load (ETL) processes. On-Line analytical Processing (OLAP) queries are applied on DWs to derive important business-critical knowledge. DW and OLAP technologies perform efficiently when they are applied on data that are static in nature and well organized in structure. Nowadays, Semantic Web technologies and the Linked Data principles inspire organizations to publish their semantic data, which allow machines to understand the meaning of data, using the Resource Description Framework (RDF) model. In addition to traditional (non-semantic) data sources, the incorporation of semantic data sources into a DW raises the additional challenges of schema derivation, semantic heterogeneity, and schema and data management model over traditional ETL tools. Furthermore, most SW data provided by business, academic and governmental organizations include facts and figures, which raise new requirements for BI tools to enable OLAP-like analyses over those semantic (RDF) data. In this thesis, we 1) propose a layer-based ETL framework for handling diverse semantic and non-semantic data sources by addressing the challenges mentioned above, 2) propose a set of high-level ETL constructs for processing semantic data, 3) implement appropriate environments (both programmable and GUI) to facilitate ETL processes and evaluate the proposed solutions. Our ETL framework is a semantic ETL framework because it integrates data semantically. We propose SETL, a unified framework for semantic ETL. The framework is divided into three layers: the Definition Layer, ETL Layer, and Data Warehouse Layer. In the Definition Layer, the semantic DW (SDW) schema, sources, and the mappings among the sources and the target are defined. In the ETL Layer, ETL processes to populate the SDW from sources are designed. The Data Warehouse Layer manages the storage of transformed semantic data. The framework supports the inclusion of semantic (RDF) data in DWs in addition to relational data. It allows users to define an ontology of a DW and annotate it with MD constructs (such as dimensions, cubes, levels, etc.) using the Data Cube for OLAP (QB4OLAP) vocabulary. It supports traditional transformation operations and provides a method to generate semantic data from the source data according to the semantics encoded in the ontology. It also provides a method to connect internal SDW data with external knowledge bases. On top of SETL, we propose SETLCONSTUCT where we define a set of high-level ETL tasks/operations to process semantic data sources. We divide the integration process into two layers: the Definition Layer and Execution Layer. The Definition Layer includes two tasks that allow DW designers to define target (SDW) schemas and the mappings between (intermediate) sources and the (intermediate) target. To create mappings among the sources and target constructs, we provide a mapping vocabulary called S2TMAP. Different from other ETL tools, we propose a new paradigm: we characterize the ETL flow transformations at the Definition Layer instead of independently within each ETL operation (in the Execution Layer). This way, the designer has an overall view of the process, which generates metadata (the mapping file) that the ETL operators will read and parametrize themselves with automatically. In the Execution Layer, we propose a set of high-level ETL operations to process semantic data sources. Finally, we develop a GUI-based semantic BI system SETLBI to define, process, integrate, and query semantic and non-semantic data. In addition to the Definition Layer and the ETL Layer, SETLBI has the OLAP Layer, which provides an interactive interface to enable OLAP analysis over the semantic DW ; Les eines d'Intel·ligència Empresarial (BI), conegudes en anglès com Business Intelligence, donen suport a la millora de la presa de decisions empresarials mitjançant l'anàlisi de les dades de l'organització disponibles. Els magatzems de dades, o data warehouse, (DWs), típicament estructurats seguint el model Multidimensional (MD), s'utilitzen per emmagatzemar dades de diferents fonts, tant internes com externes, processades mitjançant processos Extract- Transformation-Load (ETL). Les consultes de processament analític en línia (OLAP) s'apliquen als DW per extraure coneixement crític en l'àmbit empresarial. Els DW i les tecnologies OLAP funcionen de manera eficient quan s'apliquen sobre dades de natura estàtica i ben estructurades. Avui en dia, les tecnologies de la Web Semàntica (SW) i els principis Linked Data (LD) inspiren les organitzacions per publicar les seves dades en formats semàntics, que permeten que les màquines entenguin el significat de les dades, mitjançant el llenguatge de descripció de recursos (RDF). Una de les raons per les quals les dades semàntiques han tingut tant d'èxit és que es poden gestionar i fer que estiguin disponibles per tercers amb poc esforç, i no depenen d'esquemes de dades sofisticats. A més de les fonts de dades tradicionals (no semàntiques), la incorporació de fonts de dades semàntiques en un DW planteja reptes addicionals tals com derivar-hi esquema, l'heterogeneïtat semàntica i la representació de l'esquema i les dades a través d'eines d'ETL. A més, la majoria de dades SW proporcionades per empreses, organitzacions acadèmiques o governamentals inclouen fets i figures que representen nous reptes per les eines de BI per tal d'habilitar l'anàlisi OLAP sobre dades semàntiques (RDF). En aquesta tesi, 1) proposem un marc ETL basat en capes per a la gestió de diverses fonts de dades semàntiques i no semàntiques i adreçant els reptes esmentats anteriorment, 2) proposem un conjunt d'operacions ETL per processar dades semàntiques, i 3) la creació d'entorns apropiats de desenvolupament (programàtics i GUIs) per facilitar la creació i gestió de DW i processos ETL semàntics, així com avaluar les solucions proposades. El nostre marc ETL és un marc ETL semàntic perquè Es capaç de considerar e integrar dades de forma semàntica. Els següents paràgrafs elaboren sobre aquests contribucions. Proposem SETL, un marc unificat per a ETL semàntic. El marc es divideix en tres capes: la capa de definició, la capa ETL i la capa DW. A la capa de definició, es defineixen l'esquema del DW semàntic (SDW), les fonts i els mappings entre les fonts i l'esquema del DW. A la capa ETL, es dissenyen processos ETL per popular el SDW a partir de fonts. A la capa DW, es gestiona l'emmagatzematge de les dades semàntiques transformades. El nostre marc dóna suport a la inclusió de dades semàntiques (RDF) en DWs, a més de dades relacionals. Així, permet als usuaris definir una ontologia d'un DW i anotar-la amb construccions MD (com ara dimensions, cubs, nivells, etc.) utilitzant el vocabulari Data Cube for OLAP (QB4OLAP). També admet operacions de transformació tradicionals i proporciona un mètode per generar semàntica de les dades d'origen segons la semàntica codificada al document ontologia. També proporciona un mètode per connectar l'SDW amb bases de coneixement externes. Per tant, crea una base de coneixement, composta per un ontologia i les seves instàncies, on les dades estan connectades semànticament amb altres dades externes / internes. Per fer-ho, desenvolupem un mètode programàtic, basat en Python, d'alt nivell, per realitzar les tasques esmentades anteriorment. S'ha portat a terme un experiment complet d'avaluació comparant SETL amb una solució elaborada amb eines tradicional (que requereixen molta més codificació). Com a cas d'ús, hem emprat el Danish Agricultural dataset, i els resultats mostren que SETL proporciona un millor rendiment, millora la productivitat del programador i la qualitat de la base de coneixement. La comparació entre SETL i Pentaho Data Integration (PDI) mostra que SETL és un 13,5% més ràpid que PDI. A més de ser més ràpid que PDI, tracta les dades semàntiques com a ciutadans de primera classe, mentre que PDI no conté operadors específics per a dades semàntiques. A sobre de SETL, proposem SETLCONSTUCT on definim un conjunt de tasques d'alt nivell / operacions ETL per processar fonts de dades semàntiques i orientades a encapsular i facilitar la creació de l'ETL semàntic. Dividim el procés d'integració en dues capes: la capa de definició i la capa d'execució. La capa de definició inclou dues tasques que permeten definir als dissenyadors de DW esquemes destí (SDW) i mappings entre fonts (o resultats intermedis) i l'SDW (potencialment, altres resultats intermedis). Per crear mappings entre les fonts i el SDW, proporcionem un vocabulari de mapping anomenat Source-To-Target Mapping (S2TMAP). A diferència d'altres eines ETL, proposem un nou paradigma: les transformacions del flux ETL es caracteritzen a la capa de definició, i no de forma independent dins de cada operació ETL (a la capa d'execució). Aquest nou paradigma permet al dissenyador tenir una visió global del procés, que genera metadades (el fitxer de mapping) que els operadors ETL individuals llegiran i es parametritzaran automàticament. A la capa d'execució proposem un conjunt d'operacions ETL d'alt nivell per processar fonts de dades semàntiques. A més de la neteja, la unió i la transformació per dades semàntiques, proposem operacions per generar semàntica multidimensional i actualitzar el SDW per reflectir els canvis en les fonts. A més, ampliem SETLCONSTRUCT per permetre la generació automàtica de flux d'execució ETL (l'anomenem SETLAUTO). Finalment, proporcionem una àmplia avaluació per comparar la productivitat, el temps de desenvolupament i el rendiment de SETLCONSTRUCT i SETLAUTO amb el marc anterior SETL. L'avaluació demostra que SETLCONSTRUCT millora considerablement sobre SETL en termes de productivitat, temps de desenvolupament i rendiment. L'avaluació mostra que 1) SETLCONSTRUCT utilitza un 92% menys de caràcters mecanografiats (NOTC) que SETL, i SETLAUTO redueix encara més el nombre de conceptes usats (NOUC) un altre 25%; 2) utilitzant SETLCONSTRUCT, el temps de desenvolupament es redueix gairebé a la meitat en comparació amb SETL, i es redueix un altre 27 % mitjançant SETLAUTO; 3) SETLCONSTRUCT es escalable i té un rendiment similar en comparació amb SETL. Finalment, desenvolupem un sistema de BI semàntic basat en GUI SETLBI per definir, processar, integrar i consultar dades semàntiques i no semàntiques. A més de la capa de definició i de la capa ETL, SETLBI té una capa OLAP, que proporciona una interfície interactiva per permetre l'anàlisi OLAP d'autoservei sobre el DW semàntic. Cada capa està composada per un conjunt d'operacions / tasques. Per formalitzar les connexions intra i inter-capes dels components de cada capa, emprem una ontologia. La capa ETL amplia l'execució de la capa de SETLCONSTUCT afegint operacions per processar fonts de dades no semàntiques. Per últim, demostrem el sistema final mitjançant el cens de la població de Bangladesh (2011). La solució final d'aquesta tesi és l'eina SETLBI . SETLBI facilita (1) als dissenyadors del DW amb pocs / sense coneixements de SW, integrar semànticament les dades (semàntiques o no) i analitzar-les emprant OLAP, i (2) als usuaris de la SW els permet definir vistes sobre dades semàntiques, integrar-les amb fonts no semàntiques, i visualitzar-les segons el model MD i fer anàlisi OLAP. A més, els usuaris SW poden enriquir l'esquema SDW generat amb construccions RDFS / OWL. Prenent aquest marc com a punt de partida, els investigadors poden emprar-lo per a crear SDWs de forma interactiva i automàtica. Aquest projecte crea un pont entre les tecnologies BI i SW, i obre la porta a altres oportunitats de recerca com desenvolupar tècniques de DW i ETL comprensibles per les màquines. ; (Danskere) Business Intelligence (BI) værktøjer understøtter at tage bedre forretningsbeslutninger, ved at analysere tilgængelige organisatoriske data. Data Warehouses (DWs), typisk konstrueret med den Multidimensionelle (MD) model, bruges til at lagre data fra forskellige interne og eksterne kilder, der behandles ved hjælp af Extract-Transformation-Load (ETL) processer. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) forespørgsler anvendes på DWs for at udlede vigtig forretningskritisk viden. DW og OLAP-teknologier fungerer effektivt, når de anvendes på data, som er statiske af natur og velorganiseret i struktur. I dag inspirerer Semantic Web (SW) teknologier og Linked Data (LD) principper organisationer til at offentliggøre deres semantiske data, som tillader maskiner at forstå betydningen af denne, ved hjælp af Resource Description Framework (RDF) modellen. En af grundene til, at semantiske data er blevet succesfuldt, er at styringen og udgivelsen af af dataene er nemt, og ikke er afhængigt af et sofistikeret skema. Ud over problemer ved overførslen af traditionelle (ikke-semantiske) databaser til DWs, opstår yderligere udfordringer ved overførslen af semantiske databaser, såsom skema nedarvning, semantisk heterogenitet samt skemaet for data repræsentation over traditionelle ETL værktøjer. På den anden side udgør en stor del af den semantiske data der bliver offentliggjort af virksomheder, akademikere samt regeringer, af figurer og fakta, der igen giver nye problemstillinger og krav til BI værktøjer, for at gøre OLAP lignende analyser over de semantiske data mulige. I denne afhandling gør vi følgende: 1) foreslår et lag-baseret ETL framework til at håndterer multiple semantiske og ikke-semantiske datakilder, ved at svare på udfordringerne nævnt herover, 2) foreslår en mængde af ETL operationer til at behandle semantisk data, 3) implementerer passende miljøer (både programmerbare samt grafiske brugergrænseflader), for at lette ETL processer og evaluere den foreslåede løsning. Vores ETL framework er et semantisk ETL framework, fordi det integrerer data semantisk. Den følgende sektion forklarer vores bidrag. Vi foreslår SETL, et samlet framework for semantisk ETL. Frameworket er splittet i tre lag: et definitions-lag, et ETL-lag, og et DW-lag. Det semanvii tiske DW (SWD) skema, datakilder, samt sammenhængen mellem datakilder og deres mål, er defineret i definitions-laget. I ETL-laget designes ETLprocesser til at udfylde SDW fra datakilderne. DW-laget administrerer lagring af transformerede semantiske data. Frameworket understøtter inkluderingen af semantiske (RDF) data i DWs ud over relationelle data. Det giver brugerne mulighed for at definere en ontologi for et DW og annotere med MD-konstruktioner (såsom dimensioner, kuber, niveauer osv.) ved hjælp af Data Cube til OLAP (QB4OLAP) ordforrådet. Det understøtter traditionelle transformations operationer, og giver en metode til at generere semantiske data fra de oprindelige data, i henhold til semantikken indkodet i ontologien. Det muliggør også en metode til at forbinde interne SDW data med eksterne vidensbaser. Herved skaber det en vidensbase, der er sammensat af en ontologi og dets instanser, hvor data er semantisk forbundet med andre eksterne / interne data. Vi udvikler et høj niveau Python-baseret programmerbart framework for at udføre de ovennævnte opgaver. En omfattende eksperimentel evaluering, der sammenligner SETL med en traditionel løsning (hvilket krævede meget manuel kodning), om brugen af danske landbrugsog forretnings datasæt, viser at SETL præsterer bedre, programmør produktivitet og vidensbase kvalitet. Sammenligningen mellem SETL og Pentaho Data Integration (PDI) ved behandling af en semantisk kilde viser, at SETL er 13,5% hurtigere end PDI. Udover SETL, foreslår vi SETLCONSTRUCT hvor vi definerer et sæt ETLoperationer på højt niveau til behandling af semantiske datakilder. Vi deler integrationsprocessen i to lag: Definitions-lag og eksekverings-lag. Definitionslaget indeholder to opgaver, der giver DW designere muligheden for at definere (SDW) skemaer, og kortlægningerne mellem kilder og målet. For at oprette kortlægning mellem kilderne og målene, leverer vi et kortlægnings ordforråd kaldet Source-to-Target Mapping (S2TMAP). Forskelligt fra andre ETL-værktøjer foreslår vi et nyt paradigme: vi karakteriserer ETLflowtransformationerne i definitions-laget i stedet for uafhængigt inden for hver ETL-operation (i eksekverings-laget). På denne måde har designeren et overblik over processen, som genererer metadata (kortlægningsfilen), som ETL operatørerne vil læse og parametrisere automatisk. I eksekverings-laget foreslår vi en mængde høj niveau ETL-operationer til at behandle semantiske datakilder. Udover rensning, sammenføjning og datatypebaseret transformationer af semantiske data, foreslår vi operationer til at generere multidimensionel semantik på data-niveau og operationer til at opdatere et SDW for at afspejle ændringer i kilde-dataen. Derudover udvider vi SETLCONSTRUCT for at muliggøre automatisk ETL-eksekveringsstrømgenerering (vi kalder det SETLAUTO). Endelig leverer vi en omfattende evaluering for at sammenligne produktivitet, udviklingstid og ydeevne for scon og SETLAUTO med den tidligere ramme SETL. Evalueringen viser, at SETLCONSTRUCT forbedres markant i forhold til SETL med hensyn til produktivitet, udviklingstid og ydeevne. Evalueringen viser, at 1) SETLCONSTRUCT bruger 92% færre antal indtastede tegn (NOTC) end SETL, og SETLAUTO reducerer antallet af brugte begreber (NOUC) yderligere med 25%; 2) ved at bruge SETLCONSTRUCT, er udviklingstiden næsten halveret sammenlignet med SETL, og skæres med yderligere 27% ved hjælp af SETLAUTO; 3) SETLCONSTRUCT er skalerbar og har lignende ydelse sammenlignet med SETL. Til slut udvikler vi et GUI-baseret semantisk BI system SETLBI for at definere, processere, integrere og lave forespørgsler på semantiske og ikkesemantiske data. Ud over definitions-laget og ETL-laget, har SETLBI et OLAP-lag, som giver en interaktiv grænseflade for at muliggøre selvbetjenings OLAP analyser over det semantiske DW. Hvert lag er sammensat af en mængde operationer/opgaver. Vi udarbejder en ontologi til at formalisere intra-og ekstra-lags forbindelserne mellem komponenterne og lagene. ETLlaget udvider eksekverings-laget af SETLCONSTUCT ved at tilføje operationer til at behandle ikke-semantiske datakilder. Vi demonstrerer systemet ved hjælp af Bangladesh population census 2011 datasættet. Sammenfatningen af denne afhandling er BI-værktøjet SETLBI . SETLBI fremmer (1) DW-designere med ringe / ingen SW-viden til semantisk at integrere semantiske og / eller ikke-semantiske data og analysere det i OLAP stil, og (2) SW brugere med grundlæggende MD-baggrund til at definere MDvisninger over semantiske data, der aktiverer OLAP-lignende analyse. Derudover kan SW-brugere berige det genererede SDW-skema med RDFS / OWLkonstruktioner. Med udgangspunkt i frameworket som et grundlag kan forskere sigte mod at udvikle yderligere interaktive og automatiske integrationsrammer for SDW. Dette projekt bygger bro mellem de traditionelle BIteknologier og SW-teknologier, som igen vil åbne døren for yderligere forskningsmuligheder som at udvikle maskinforståelige ETL og lagerteknikker. ; Postprint (published version)

Skowron, Jan/0000-0002-2335-1730; Sokolovsky, Kirill/0000-0001-5991-6863; Jovanovic, Miljana D/0000-0003-4298-3247; Harrison, Diana/0000-0001-8687-6588; Esenoglu, Hasan/0000-0003-3531-7510; Bonanos, Alceste Z/0000-0003-2851-1905; Liakos, Alexios/0000-0002-0490-1469; Reig, Pablo/0000-0002-6446-3050; D'Ago, Giuseppe/0000-0001-9697-7331; Martinez, Josep Manel Carrasco/0000-0002-3029-5853; Burgaz, Umut/0000-0003-0126-3999; Wyrzykowski, Lukasz/0000-0002-9658-6151; Lu, Jessica/0000-0001-9611-0009; Jensen, Eric/0000-0002-4625-7333; Chruslinska, Martyna/0000-0002-8901-6994; Mozdzierski, Dawid/0000-0002-3861-9031; Ranc, Clement/0000-0003-2388-4534; G. C., Anupama/0000-0003-3533-7183; Strobl, Jan/0000-0002-4147-2878; Russell, David/0000-0002-3500-631X; Pawlak, Michal/0000-0002-5632-9433; BAKIS, VOLKAN/0000-0002-3125-9010; Seabroke, George/0000-0003-4072-9536; Sitek, Monika/0000-0002-1568-4551; Kilic, Yucel/0000-0001-8641-0796; Netzel, Henryka/0000-0001-5608-0028; Nesci, Roberto/0000-0002-6645-6372; Iwanek, Patryk/0000-0002-6212-7221; Leto, Giuseppe/0000-0002-0040-5011; Awiphan, Supachai/0000-0003-3251-3583; Norton, Andrew/0000-0001-7619-8269; Kolb, Ulrich/0000-0001-8670-8365; Altavilla, Giuseppe/0000-0002-9934-1352; Itoh, Ryosuke/0000-0002-1183-8955; Gromadzki, Mariusz/0000-0002-1650-1518; Szegedi, Helene/0000-0002-9904-3582; Baker, Steven/0000-0002-6436-1257; Zielinski, Pawel/0000-0001-6434-9429; Kurowski, Sebastian/0000-0002-1557-0343 ; WOS:000508411900001 ; Gaia16aye was a binary microlensing event discovered in the direction towards the northern Galactic disc and was one of the first microlensing events detected and alerted to by the Gaia space mission. Its light curve exhibited five distinct brightening episodes, reaching up to I = 12 mag, and it was covered in great detail with almost 25 000 data points gathered by a network of telescopes. We present the photometric and spectroscopic follow-up covering 500 days of the event evolution. We employed a full Keplerian binary orbit microlensing model combined with the motion of Earth and Gaia around the Sun to reproduce the complex light curve. The photometric data allowed us to solve the microlensing event entirely and to derive the complete and unique set of orbital parameters of the binary lensing system. We also report on the detection of the first-ever microlensing space-parallax between the Earth and Gaia located at L2. The properties of the binary system were derived from microlensing parameters, and we found that the system is composed of two main-sequence stars with masses 0.57 +/- 0.05 M-circle dot and 0.36 +/- 0.03 M-circle dot at 780 pc, with an orbital period of 2.88 years and an eccentricity of 0.30. We also predict the astrometric microlensing signal for this binary lens as it will be seen by Gaia as well as the radial velocity curve for the binary system. Events such as Gaia16aye indicate the potential for the microlensing method of probing the mass function of dark objects, including black holes, in directions other than that of the Galactic bulge. This case also emphasises the importance of long-term time-domain coordinated observations that can be made with a network of heterogeneous telescopes. ; Polish National Sci-ence Centre (NCN): HARMONIA NCN grant [2015/18/M/ST9/00544]; Polish National Sci-ence Centre (NCN): OPUS NCN grant [2015/17/B/ST9/03167]; Polish National Sci-ence Centre (NCN): DAINA NCN grant [2017/27/L/ST9/03221]; European CommissionEuropean CommissionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre [312430, 730890]; Polish Ministry of Higher EducationMinistry of Science and Higher Education, Poland [3040/7.PR/2014/2, DIR/WK/2018/12]; MAESTRO NCN grant [2014/14/A/ST9/00121]; DDT programmes [SW2016b12, A34DDT3]; UK Science and Technology Facilities CouncilUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); Foundation for Polish Science (Program START); National Science Center, PolandNational Science Centre, Poland [ETIUDA 2018/28/T/ST9/00096]; Slovenian Research AgencySlovenian Research Agency - Slovenia [P1-0031, J1-8136]; COST Action GWverseEuropean Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) [CA16104]; National Research Foundation of KoreaNational Research Foundation of Korea [2017R1A4A1015178]; STFCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); European Space Agency under the NELIOTA program [4000112943]; GROWTH project - National Science Foundation [1545949]; MINECO (Spanish Ministry of Economy) [ESP2016-80079-C2-1-R, ESP2014-55996-C2-1-R, RTI2018-095076B-C21]; ICCUB (Unidad de Excelencia a Maria de Maeztu) [MDM-2014-0369]; Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI)Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) [ASI I/058/10/0, ASI 2014-025-R.1.2015]; Royal Society Research GrantRoyal Society of London [RG170230]; Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan)Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan [104-2112-M-008-012MY3, 104-2923-M-008-004-MY5]; European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC Grant [320964]; Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationGordon and Betty Moore Foundation [GBMF5490]; NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-1515927, AST-0908816, AST-1412587]; Mt. Cuba Astronomical Foundation; Center for Cosmology and AstroParticle Physics at the Ohio State UniversityOhio State University; Chinese Academy of Sciences South America Center for Astronomy (CAS-SACA); Villum Foundation; MINECO under the Ramon y Cajal programme [RYC-2016-20254]; MINECO [AYA2017-86274-P]; AGAUR grantAgencia de Gestio D'Ajuts Universitaris de Recerca Agaur (AGAUR) [SGR-661/2017]; Science and Technology Facilities CouncilUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC) [ST/P000541/1]; STFC consolidated grant [ST/M001296/1]; Research Council of LithuaniaResearch Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) [S-LL-19-2]; TUB.ITAKTurkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK); IKI; KFU; AST; National Science Fund (Bulgaria)National Science Fund of Bulgaria [DN 18/13-12.12.2017]; Institute of Astronomy via research project "Study of ICRF radio-sources and fast variable astronomical objects"; NAO Rozhen, BAS, via research project "Study of ICRF radio-sources and fast variable astronomical objects"; Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia [176011, 176004, 176021]; DFGGerman Research Foundation (DFG)European Commission [SPP 1992, WA 1074/11-1]; NCN [2016/21/B/ST9/01126]; MINECO Ramon y Cajal programme [AYA2017-86274-P, RYJ-2016-20254]; Robert Martin Ayers Sciences Fund; National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) [NNX08AR22G]; National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [AST-1238877]; W. M. Keck FoundationW.M. Keck Foundation; ICCUB (Unidad de Excelencia 'Maria de Maeztu') [MDM-2014-0369]; [3.6714.2017/8.9] ; This work relies on the results from the European Space Agency (ESA) space mission Gaia. Gaia data are being processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC). Funding for the DPAC is provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multi-Lateral Agreement (MLA). The Gaia mission website is https://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia.In particular we acknowledge Gaia Photomet-ric Science Alerts Team, website http://gsaweb.ast.cam.ac.uk/alerts.We thank the members of the OGLE team for discussions and support. We also would like to thank the Polish Children Fund (KFnRD) for support of an internship of their pupils in Ostrowik Observatory of the Warsaw Univ-ersity, during which some of the data were collected, in particular we thank: Robert Nowicki, Michal Por.ebski and Karol Niczyj. The work presented here has been supported by the following grants from the Polish National Sci-ence Centre (NCN): HARMONIA NCN grant 2015/18/M/ST9/00544, OPUS NCN grant 2015/17/B/ST9/03167, DAINA NCN grant 2017/27/L/ST9/03221, as well as European Commission's FP7 and H2020 OPTICON grants (312430 and 730890), Polish Ministry of Higher Education support for OPTICON FP7, 3040/7.PR/2014/2, MNiSW grant DIR/WK/2018/12. PMr and JS acknowledge support from MAESTRO NCN grant 2014/14/A/ST9/00121 to Andrzej Udal-ski. We would like to thank the following members of the AAVSO for their amazing work with collecting vast amounts of data: Teofilo Arranz, James Boardman, Stephen Brincat, Geoff Chaplin, Emery Erdelyi, Rafael Farfan, William Goff, Franklin Guenther, Kevin Hills, Jens Jacobsen, Raymond Kneip, David Lane, Fernando Limon Martinez, Gianpiero Locatelli, Andrea Mantero, Attila Madai, Peter Meadows, Otmar Nickel, Arto Oksanen, Luis Perez, Roger Pieri, Ulisse Quadri, Diego Rodriguez Perez, Frank Schorr, George Sjoberg, Andras Timar, Ray Tomlin, Tonny Vanmunster, Klaus Wenzel, Thomas Wikander. We also thank the amateur observers from around the world, in particular, Pietro Capuozzo, Leone Trascianelli, Igor Zharkov from Ardingly College and Angelo Tomassini, Karl-Ludwig Bath. We also thank Roger Pickard from the British Astronomical Association and Matthias Penselin from the German Haus der Astronomie association for their contributions. KS thanks Dr. Dmitry Chulkov and Dr. Panagiotis Gavras for the interesting discussion of stellar multiplicity. We acknowledge support of DDT programmes SW2016b12 (WHT) and A34DDT3 (TNG). The INT, TNG and WHT are operated on the island of La Palma by the Isaac Newton Group of Telescopes in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias. The Liverpool Telescope is operated on the island of La Palma by Liverpool John Moores University in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias with financial support from the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council. SJF would like to thank the UCL students who assisted with the collection and checking of UCLO data for the observing campaign: Martina Aghopian, Ashleigh Arendt, Artem Barinov, Luke Barrett, Jasper Berry-Gair, Arjun Bhogal, Charles Bowesman, William Boyd, Andrei Cuceu, Michael Davies, Max Freedman, Gabriel Fu, Abirami Govindaraju, Iandeep Hothi, Clara Matthews Torres, Darius Modirrousta-Galian, Petru Neague, George Pattinson, Xiaoxi Song, and Brian Yu. P.Mr. acknowledges support from the Foundation for Polish Science (Program START) and the National Science Center, Poland (grant ETIUDA 2018/28/T/ST9/00096).; r r AC, AG and NI acknowledge the financial support from the Slovenian Research Agency (research core funding No. P1-0031 and project grant No. J1-8136)and networking support by the COST Action GWverse CA16104. Skinakas Observatory is a collaborative project of the University of Crete and the Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas. Work by C.H. was supported by the grant (2017R1A4A1015178) of National Research Foundation of Korea. KW acknowledges funding from STFC, and thanks the University of Lei-cester for the investment in instrumentation. We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the European Space Agency under the NELIOTA program, contract No. 4000112943. This work has made use of data obtained with the Kryoneri Prime Focus Instrument, developed by the European Space Agency NELIOTA project on the 1.2 m Kryoneri telescope, which is operated by IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, Greece. The Aristarchos tele-scope is operated on Helmos Observatory by the IAASARS of the National Observatory of Athens. This work was supported by the GROWTH project funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant No 1545949. This work was supported by the MINECO (Spanish Ministry of Economy) through grant ESP2016-80079-C2-1-R (MINECO/FEDER, UE) and ESP2014-55996-C2-1-R (MINECO/FEDER, UE) and MDM-2014-0369 of ICCUB (Unidad de Excelencia a Maria de Maeztu). This work was supported by the MINECO (Spanish Ministry of Economy) through grant ESP2016-80079-C2-1-R and RTI2018-095076B-C21 (MINECO/FEDER, UE), and MDM-2014-0369 of ICCUB (Unidad de Excelencia 'Maria de Maeztu'). The Joan Oro Telescope (TJO) of the Montsec Astronomical Observatory (OAdM) is owned by the Catalan Government and is operated by the Institute for Space Studies of Catalonia (IEEC). Support to this study has been provided by Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) through grants ASI I/058/10/0 and ASI 2014-025-R.1.2015. KW thanks Dipali Thanki and Ray McErlean for their technical support of the scientific programme of the University of Leicester observatory. This work was supported by Royal Society Research Grant RG170230. CCN thanks the funding from Ministry of Science and Technology (Taiwan) under the contracts 104-2112-M-008-012MY3 and 104-2923-M-008-004-MY5. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC Grant Agreement n. 320964 (WDTracer). We thank the Las Cumbres Observatory and its sta ff for its continuing support of the project. ASAS-SN is supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through grant GBMF5490 to the Ohio State University and NSF grant AST-1515927. Development of ASAS-SN has been supported by NSF grant AST-0908816, the Mt. Cuba Astronomical Foundation, the Center for Cosmology and AstroParticle Physics at the Ohio State University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences South America Center for Astronomy (CAS-SACA), the Villum Foundation, and George Skestos. ARM acknowledges support from the MINECO under the Ramon y Cajal programme (RYC-2016-20254) and the AYA2017-86274-P grant, and the AGAUR grant SGR-661/2017. We acknowledge support from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (TB and RWW; ST/P000541/1). K.Horne acknowledges support from STFC consolidated grant ST/M001296/1. This work was partly supported by the Research Council of Lithuania, grant No. S-LL-19-2 Authors thank to TUB.ITAK, IKI, KFU, and AST for partial supports in using RTT150 (Russian-Turkish 1.5-m telescope in Antalya).; r r This work was partially funded by the subsidy 3.6714.2017/8.9 allocated to Kazan Federal University for the state assignment in the sphere of scientific activities. This research was partially supported by contract DN 18/13-12.12.2017 with the National Science Fund (Bulgaria). Work by YS was supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, administered by Uni-versities Space Research Associ-ation through a contract with NASA. GD gratefully acknowledges the obser-ving grant support from the Institute of Astronomy and NAO Rozhen, BAS, via bilateral joint research project "Study of ICRF radio-sources and fast variable astronomical objects" (PI:G.Damljanovic). This work is a part of the Projects no. 176011 "Dynamics and kinematics of celestial bodies and systems", no. 176004 "Stellar physics" and no. 176021 "Visible and invisible matter in nearby galaxies: theory and observations" supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. YT acknowledges the support of DFG priority program SPP 1992 "Exploring the diversity of Extrasolar Planets" (WA 1074/11-1). This work of PMi, DM and ZK was supported by the NCN grant no. 2016/21/B/ST9/01126. ARM acknowledges support from the MINECO Ramon y Cajal programme RYJ-2016-20254 and grant AYA2017-86274-P and from the AGAUR grant SGR-661/2017. The work by C. R. was supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Goddard Space Flight Center, administered by USRA through a contract with NASA. The Faulkes Telescope Project is an education partner of Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO). The Faulkes Telescopes are maintained and operated by LCO. This research was made possible through the use of the AAVSO Photomet-ric All-Sky Survey (APASS), funded by the Robert Martin Ayers Sciences Fund and NSF AST-1412587. The Pan-STARRS1 Surveys (PS1) and the PS1 public science archive have been made possible through contributions by the Institute for Astronomy, the University of Hawaii, the Pan-STARRS Project O ffice, the Max-Planck Society and its participating institutes, the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Heidelberg and the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Garching, The Johns Hopkins University, Durham University, the University of Edinburgh, the Queen's University Belfast, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network Incor-porated, the National Central University of Taiwan, the Space Telescope Sci-ence Institute, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NNX08AR22G issued through the Planetary Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate, the National Science Foundation Grant No. AST-1238877, the University of Maryland, Eotvos Lorand University (ELTE), the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Ins-titute of Technology, the University of California and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.

According to the main objectives of the study, the following conclusions could be presented: 1. The drastic decrease in arable land use in the transition to a free market economy continued until EU CAP was implemented in Estonia. The regional differences in land use changes in the 1990s were determined mainly by local bio-physical disadvantages such as soil quality. The higher decrease rate of arable land use in 1992– 2001 occurred in the regions with low soil fertility. A decrease in soil fertility by one quality point brings about a 2.5% increase in the proportion of abandoned land. The loss of subsidies at the beginning of the transition period highlighted the importance of pedo-climatic conditions in the formation of the profitability of agricultural production but the EU agricultural policy has again relieved the impact of bio-physical diversity on the competitiveness of agriculture. 2. Plant nutrient balances of Estonian arable soils were analysed in the long-term (1939–2003) with uniform methodology. This approach enabled the evaluation of some aspects of sustainability of agricultural land use and soil management through transition from the Soviet era to the open market economy. The application of both mineral and organic fertilisers started to increase in the 1960s and peaked in the 1980s. The increase in fertilisation was not followed proportionately by yield increase and this resulted in positive NPK balances of arable soils in the 1970–1980s, which has significantly improved the nutrient supply of arable soils. The quantities of plant nutrients N, K and P applied to the fields exceeded the amounts removed through crop harvesting by a factor of 2–2.3 (N), 1.9–2.2 (K) and 3–3.5 (P). The amounts of lactate soluble P and K increased by 1.1 and 0.7 mg kg-1 soil per year, respectively. 3. In the 1990s the use of fertilisers has decreased by significant factors: N by six; P by twenty; K by thirty and organic fertilisers by four. The total balances of K and P of arable soils have become negative as a consequence of inadequate fertilisation. Active balance, which enables the estimation of the degree to which formation of the yield occurs at the expense of soil resources, shows that at present the 58 59 largest deficiency is regarding P (68%) and K (57%) followed by N (34%). Thus, at present, crop production takes place largely at the expense of the soil nutrient reserves created by farmers in the 1970–1980s. The use of mineral fertilisers is less intensive in the regions with low soil quality. Decrease in soil fertility reduces the amount of mineral fertilisers used by 2.85 kg NPK per one soil quality point. As nutrient deficiency is highest for forage crops, the depletion of soil P and K may become critical, especially in organic systems where grasslands are dominant. Agri-environmental policy should more consider soil degradation due to the negative plant nutrient balances of arable soils in Estonia. 4. At present only 40–50% of the yield potential of cereals is realised in actual farming conditions. The high yield gap indicates the ineffective use of pedo-climatic resources and this causes agricultural self-sufficiency at the national level to deteriorate. Low realisation of yield potential of cereals is partly due to the insufficient use of fertilisers, as the actual yield level is limited by low input of plant nutrients to the soil. It must, therefore, be considered that the yield formation of cere - als is largely determined by the pedo-climatic conditions (50–60%), and that fertilisers are a lesser influence. In the case of oilseed rape the utilisation of the yield potential is 60–65%, which is induced by more intensive fertilisation compared to cereals. To narrow the yield gap in a profitable and environmentally friendly way, the field-specific fertiliser and other input optimisation is required. 5. A positive effect of the collapse of Estonian agriculture has been a reduction of the pressure on the environment whereas a negative effect to the several aspects of sustainable agriculture has emerged (i) in soil degradation which is due to insufficient investments into maintaining soil fertility, (ii) in ineffective use of pedo-climatic resources, (iii) in low profitability and competitiveness of the agri - culture sector, and (iv) in decreased national food supply. To achieve more sustainable agriculture the optimisation of agricultural land use and soil management should be based on the scientific knowl - edge and from this necessary precondition to develop a spatial agro-economic DSS. 6. The agronomic models for spring barley and potato, based on the regression analysis of numerous field experiments, were developed to assess the impact of soil and climate conditions on the effective - ness of fertilisers. The effectiveness of fertilisation depends, to a large extent on, besides soil properties, meteorological conditions. The variance of the average effectiveness, even of quite small rates, of mineral fertilisers (N60, P26 and K50) is very high. Higher efficiency is guaranteed in the case of balanced fertilisation but the optimum combination of nutrients depends on the relative prices of fertilisers and yield. The developed models enable the estimation of the pedo-climatic and economic risks in fertilisation optimisation. Improved agronomic models operating in spatial and temporal scale are forming a basis for knowledge-based DSS. 7. Data handling and presentation in the agricultural decision making process was for the first time in Estonia embedded to fieldspecific GIS and its application possibilities were analysed in the example of Kullamaa rural municipality. A field-specific database was compiled and agro-economic models were applied to provide information for decision makers. Economically effective N norm for barley is, in most of the study area, from 50 to 60 kg N ha-1 but on a quarter of arable land in the study area it is uneconomical to apply N to barley. Field-specific fertiliser optimisation compared to uniform fertiliser application can help farmers to avoid economic losses and simultaneously increase effectiveness of fertilisation and low yields. The simulated barley yield for the study area is, with the use of economically optimised amounts of NPK fertilisers, 2.6 Mg ha-1, which is by 1.1 Mg ha-1 higher compared to the actual cereal yield in the region. Composed thematic maps enable the clear presentation of spatial variability in the profitability of barley production from field to region scale. Farmers can use spatial profitability data with other criteria for crop rotation planning and for strategic decisions but presented DSS does not make decisions, but rather contributes knowledge that can be used in the decision making process. The ben - efit of this DSS is that information from different sources is collected, processed and integrated into a unified system which makes decision making more effective. This also makes existing soil information more easily available and self-explanatory for stakeholders. 8. Despite the fact that this study presents spatial agro-economic DSS on the example of just one rural municipality and a single crop, its importance is more extensive. Up-scaling the modelling results 60 61 from field-level also enables its application in regional planning and in macro-economic analysis. In this study the methodology for the functioning of the DSS was developed which is further applicable nationwide. There is an increasing demand for the planning of abandoned agricultural land in Estonia and a developed DSS can be expanded for the cultivation of bioenergetic crops or for afforestation of abandoned land. 9. Further improvement of DSS should focus on the development of agronomic models for various crops and economic models should be continuously adjusted according the changes in socio-economic conditions. The database of digital soil map should be definitely appended with quantitative parameters, which would provide prerequisites for its more extensive applications such as related production activities to environmental impact. The extensification of Estonian agriculture during the transition period has reduced the negative impact on the environment but at the same time this has caused a decline in the fertility of agricultural land, and this diminishes the competitiveness of Estonian agriculture. Analysed spatial DSS serves as a basis for effective resource management in modern agriculture and can be used as a tool in knowledge-based decision making processes to achieve economic, social and environmental targets of sustainable agriculture. The improvement of the current DSS and usage expansion from pilot areas to nationwide coverage of Estonia are essential for these purposes. This study creates possibilities not only for field-specific agro-economic analysis but also contributes a framework for further expansion of the capabilities of GIS-based DSS in various branches of the rural economy. ; Eesti põllumajandus ja sellega seonduv maakasutus on viimastel aastakümnetel agrotehnoloogia arengust, sotsiaalmajanduslikest ja poliitilistest teguritest tulenevalt läbi teinud mitmeid olulisi muutusi. Pärast Eesti taasiseseisvumist, 1990ndate alguses, toimus põllumajandustootmise drastiline langus – teraviljatoodang vähenes kümne aastaga 1,6, lihatoodang 2,8 ja piima tootmine 1,8 korda. Post-sotsialistlikest Ida- ja Kesk-Euroopa riikidest oli Eestis põllumajandustootmise langus kõige suurem. Aastatel 1990–2005 vähenes põllumajanduse osatähtsus sisemajanduse koguproduktist 12,7%lt 2,4%ni ning põllumajanduslik tööhõive 16,6%lt 3,9%ni. Sellised suuremahulised muutused on tõstatanud vajaduse põllumajandusliku maakasutuse ja tootmissisendite teaduspõhiseks optimeerimiseks. Erinevate maakasutusviiside rakendamisel tuleb arvestada, et see oleks jätkusuutlik nii ökoloogilises, sotsiaalses kui ka majanduslikus mõttes. Kuna ülemikuperioodil sotsialistlikust ajastust Euroopa Liitu Eesti põllumajanduse konkurentsivõime ja jätkusuutlikkus oluliselt kahanes, siis tõstatub küsimus, mil määral oleks võimalik asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi rakendamisega optimeerida maakasutust ja tootmissisendeid, suurendada põllukultuuride saagikust ning põllumajandustootmise tasuvust ilma tootmistegevuse negatiivsete mõjudeta ümbritsevale keskkonnale. Seega käesoleva töö eesmärgiks oli: 1. hinnata agroökoloogilistest aspektidest muutusi Eesti maakasutuses, muldade väetamises ja taimetoiteelementide bilanssides 2. uurida põllukultuuride saagipotentsiaali realiseerumist 3. analüüsida mineraalväetiste efektiivsust sõltuvalt mullastik-klimaatilistest tingimustest 4. uurida looduslike ja majanduslike riskifaktorite mõju taimekasvatuse tootmistulemustele ja leida lahendeid nende riskide leevendamiseks 5. koostada ajas ja ruumis muutuvad agromajanduslikud mudelid ning analüüsida nende rakendatavust väetamise ja maakasutuse optimeerimiseks odra näitel 6. arendada välja asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi ühtne raamistik, mis loob eeldused jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse eesmärkide saavutamiseks. Käesoleva uurimistöö käigus võeti kokku Eesti agraarteaduses senitehtu ning selle põhjal koostatud agromajanduslikud mudelid seostati ühtsesse geoinfosüsteemi. Agromajanduslike mudelite ja asukohapõhise nõuandesüsteemi väljatöötamiseks vajalikud lähteandmete allikaks olid arvukad dissertatsioonid, teaduspublikatsioonid ja -aruanded, riiklike sordivõrdluskatsete, agrometeopunktide, loomade jõudluskontrolli, loodus- ja keskkonnakaitse, Statistikaameti, Maa-ameti, Põllumajanduse Registrite ja Informatsiooni Ameti, põllumajanduslike testettevõtete raamatupidamise (FADN), agrokeemiateenistuse jt asutuste andmebaasid. Töös püstitaud eesmärkidest lähtuvalt saab teha järgmised järeldused: 1. Taasiseseisvumisjärgsel perioodil toimunud suur langus Eesti põllumajanduslikus maakasutuses jätkus kuni EL ühtse põllumajanduspoliitika rakendumiseni. Põllumajandusliku maakasutuse muutused olid 1990ndatel põhjustatud sotsiaal-majanduslikest reformidest, kuid regionaalsed erinevused seonduvad eelkõige piirkonna looduslike tingimustega. Suurem põllumaa kahanemine aastatel 1992–2001 toimus madala mullaviljakusega piirkondades. Valla haritava maa boniteedi kahanedes ühe hindepunkti võrra vähenes selle valla põllumajanduslik maakasutus 2,5% võrra. Seega, mullastik-klimaatilised tingimused osutusid Eesti üleminekuperioodil põllumajandustootmise tasuvuse kujundamisel määravaks, sest põllumajandustoetused olid ebapiisavad. EL põllumajanduspoliitika rakendamisega on aga looduslike erisuste mõjud maakasutusele ja põllumajanduse konkurentsivõimele leevendunud. 2. Ühtsel metoodikal põhinev haritava maa taimetoiteelementide bilansside analüüs (1939–2003) võimaldas hinnata põllumajandusliku maakasutuse jätkusuutlikkuse mõningaid aspekte üleminekul sotsialistikust ajastust vabaturumajandusele. Mineraal- ja orgaaniliste väetiste kasutamine Eestis hakkas oluliselt suurenema 1960ndatel ja saavutas kõrgeima taseme 1980ndatel aastatel. Väetiste suurem kasutamine ei taganud aga proportsionaalset saagikuse tõusu. Eesti taasiseseisvumiseelsel perioodil, mil toimus põllumajanduse arvestatav riiklik subsideerimine, suurenesid mulda viidavate taimetoiteelementide kogused keskmiselt 4,5 kg N, 2,8 kg K ja 0,6 kg P hektari kohta aastas. Samal ajal taimede poolt kasutatud ja saagiga eemaldatud toitainete kogused suurenesid aastas keskmiselt 1,3 kg N, 1 kg K ja 0,2 kg P hektari kohta. Seega mulda viidavad taimetoitainete kogused ületasid taimede poolt kasutatavaid koguseid lämmastiku osas 2–2,3 korda, kaaliumi puhul 1,9–2,2 korda 8 4 85 ning fosforit viidi mulda 3–3,5 korda rohkem. Märkimisväärsest positiivsest taimetoiteelementide bilansist tulenevalt suurenes sel perioodil muldade laktaatlahustuva fosfori- ja kaaliumisisaldus aastas vastavalt 1,1 ja 0,7 mg kg mulla kohta. 3. Eesti taasiseseisvumisjärgsel perioodil, 1990ndatel aastatel, vähenes lämmastikväetiste kasutamine kuni 6 korda, fosforväetiste kasu - tamine 20 korda, kaaliumväetiste kasutamine 30 korda ja orgaan - iliste väetiste kasutamine 4 korda. Tulenevalt ebapiisavast väetiste kasutusest muutus põllumuldade kaaliumi ja fosfori üldbilanss negatiivseks ning lämmastikku viidi väetistega mulda kogustes, mis eemaldati põllult saakidega. Taimetoiteelementide aktiivbilansist lähtuvalt on praegu kõige suurem defitsiit fosfori (68%) ja kaaliumi (57%) osas, kuid puudujääk on ka lämmastiku osas (34%). Tai - medele omastatava muldaviidud toiteelementide ja mullast saagiga eemaldatavate koguste vahe on negatiivne – -24,5 kg N, -6,5 kg P ja -26,2 kg K ha-1. Järelikult toimub praegune taimekasvatus - toodangu formeerumine peamiselt 1970–1980ndate suurtootmises loodud mullavarude arvelt. Mineraalväetiste kasutamine on väiksem madala mullaviljakusega piirkondades. Mullaviljakuse vähenedes ühe hindepunkti võrra kahaneb kasutatav mineraalväetiste NPK kogus 2,85 kg ha-1. Kõige suurem toiteelementide puudujääk esineb söödakultuuride osas. Fosfori ja kaaliumi mullarvarude ammen - dumine võib muutuda saagikust limiteerivaks faktoriks eelkõige suure rohumaade osatähtsusega mahepõllumajanduses. Põllumajan - dus- ja keskkonnapoliitika peaks aga edaspidi suuremat tähelepanu pöörama negatiivsest toiteelementide bilansist tuleneva muldade degradeerumise vältimisele. 4. Tänapäeval moodustab Eesti keskmine teravilja saagikus kõigest 40–50% reaalselt võimalikust saagipotentsiaalist. Suur tootmis - saagikuste ja saagipotentsiaali erinevus viitab ebaefektiivsele mul - lastik-klimaatiliste ressursside kasutusele. Madal saagipotentsiaali realiseerumine on seletatav ebapiisava väetiste kasutumisega, kuid samas tuleb arvestada, et saagikus tootmises sõltub 50-60% ulatuses mullastik-klimaatiliste tingimustest ning väetamise osa saagikuse kujunemisel on oluliselt väiksem. Rapsi mõnevõrra intensiivsem väetamine võrreldes teraviljadega on taganud parema saagipotentsiaali realiseerumise – riigi keskmine rapsi saagikus moodustab 60–65% sordivõrdluskatsete saagitasemest. 5. Põllumajanduse drastiline langus 1990ndatel aastatel vähendas negatiivset mõju ümbritsevale keskkonnale, kuid samaegselt on tõstatunud mitmed jätkusuutlikkust ohustavad probleemid: (a) põl - lumuldade degradeerumine tulenevalt ebapiisavatest sisenditest mul - laviljakuse säilitamiseks, (b) ebaefektiivne mullastik-klimaatiliste ressursside kasutus, (c) põllumajandussektori madal konkurentsivõime ja tasuvus, (d) kahanenud toiduga isevarustatus. Nende probleemide lahendamiseks ja oluliselt jätkusuutlikuma põllumajanduse saavuta - miseks peab põllumajandustootmise ning maakasutuse optimeeri - mine toimima teaduspõhiselt, millest tuleneb vajadus asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi väljaarendamiseks. 6. Arvukate põldkatsete tulemustel põhineva regressioonanalüüsi abil koostatud odra ja kartuli agronoomilised mudelid võimaldavad hinnata mullastiku ja ilma mõju väetiste efektiivsusele ja väetiste kasutamise agromajanduslikke riske. Väetiste efektiivsus sõltub lisaks mulla omadustele ja väetistarbele suuresti ka klimaatilistest tingimustest, isegi mõõdukate väetisannuste kasutamisel on nende efektiivsus väga varieeruv. Kõrgem väetamise efektiivsus ja tulukus saavutatakse tasakaalustatud väetisnormide korral, kuid majan - duslikult põhjendatud taimetoiteelementide vahekord väetises on sõltuv väetise ja saagi hinnasuhtest. Hetke väetise ja odra hindade juures peab näiteks lämmastikväetise efektiivsus olema üle 7,4 kg kg-1 N-1, et katta väetamisele tehtud kulutused. Ajas ja ruumis to - imivad mudelid võimaldavad hinnata looduslikke ja majanduslikke riske väetamise optimeerimises ning panevad aluse teaduspõhise nõuandesüsteemi väljaarendamiseks. 7. Teaduspõhine nõuandesüsteem ühildati antud töö raames esmakordselt põllupõhise geoinfosüsteemiga ja selle rakendamise võimalusi analüüsiti Kullamaa valla näitel. Koostati põllumassiivide andmebaas ja rakendati agromajanduslikke mudeleid pakkumaks täiendavat informatsiooni odrakasvatuse ja väetamise põllupõhiseks optimeerimiseks. Majanduslikult efektiivsed mineraalse lämmastiku normid odrale jäid enamikel uurimisala põldudel vahemikku 50–60 kg N ha-1, kuid samas neljandikul põllumaast ei ole lämmastikväe - tiste kasutamine kui ka odrakasvatus tasuv. Põllupõhine väetiste optimeerime võimaldab põllumajandustootjatel vältida rahalist kahju, suurendada väetamise efektiivsust ja saagikust. Majandus - likult efektiivsete väetisnormide kasutamine vastavalt muldade 86 87 väetustarbele tagaks uurimisalal odra keskmiseks arvutuslikuks saagikuseks 2,6 Mg ha-1, mis on 1,1 Mg ha-1 võrra suurem antud piirkonna tegelikust teravilja saagikusest viimasel kümnendil. Koostatud teemakaardid võimaldavad selgelt visualiseerida odrakasvatuse tasuvuse ruumilist varieeruvust nii üksikute põldude tasandil kui ka regionaalselt. Põllumajandustootjad saavad kasutada põllupõhiseid tasuvusarvutusi koos täiendavate kriteeriumitega näiteks külvikordade planeerimiseks ja strateegiliste valikute tegemiseks, kuid antud nõuandesüsteem ei tee otsuseid iseenesest, vaid pakub pigem teaduspõhist lisainformatsiooni otsustusprotsessi tõhustamiseks. Erinevatest allikatest pärineva andmete integreerimine ühtsesse süsteemi suurendab informatsiooni väärtust, kättesaadavust ja teadustulemuste rakendatavust saavutamaks jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse eesmärke. 8. Hoolimata sellest, et antud uurimistöö esitleb asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi võimalusi ainult ühe valla ja kultuuri näitel, on selle tähtsus oluliselt laiaulatuslikum. Põllu tasandilt modelleerimistulemuste üldistamine võimaldab arendatavat nõuandesüsteemi rakendada nii regionaalplaneerimises kui ka makromajanduslikus analüüsis. Käesolev töö käigus arendati välja põllupõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi toimimise metoodika, mis on edaspidi rakendatav üle kogu Eesti. Praegu on tõstatunud vajadus leida rakendus põllumajanduslikust kasutusest välja langenud maadele. Antud nõuandesüsteemi ongi võimalik edasi arendada nii endiste põllumaade metsastamise kui ka neil bioenergeetiliste kultuuride kasvatamise seisukohalt, bioenergeetika arengukavade koostamiseks kui ka bioenergia tootmisprotsessi optimeerimiseks. 9. Esitletud nõuandesüsteemi arendamiseks tuleb teadusuuringutele tuginevalt pidevalt täiustada erinevate põllu- ja rohumaakultuuride agronoomilisi mudeleid ning vastavalt sotsiaalmajanduslikule olukorrale on vaja kohandada ka majanduslikke mudeleid. Digitaalse mullastikukaardi andmebaasi tuleb kindlasti täiendada kvantitatiivsete parameetritega, mis looks eeldused selle laialdasemaks kasutuseks nagu näiteks ilmastikukahjude hindamiseks põllumajanduses, kuid ka tootmisega seonduvate mõjude hindamiseks keskkonnale. Eesti põllumajandustootmise ekstensiivistumine üleminekuperioodil on vähendanud negatiivset mõju keskkonnale, kuid samas on põhjustanud muldade produktsioonivõime langust, mis omakorda vähendab Eesti põllumajanduse konkurentsivõimet. Järjepidev ekstensiivne maaviljelus ja ebaefektiivne ressursside kasutamine kahandab veelgi Eesti riigi põllumajandussaadustega isevarustatust. Arendatav asukohapõhine agromajanduslik nõuandesüsteem loob eeldused looduslike ja majanduslike ressursside efektiivseks ja optimaalseks kasutamiseks põllumajanduses ja on üheks vahendiks teaduspõhises otsustusprotsessis saavutamaks jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse majanduslikke, sotsiaalseid ja keskkonnakaitselisi eesmärke. Selleks on hädavajalik antud nõuandesüsteemi järjepidev arendamine ja laiendamine pilootalalt üle kogu Eesti. Antud uurimistöö ei loo võimalusi mitte ainult põllupõhiseks agromajanduslikuks analüüsiks ja tootmistegevuse planeerimiseks, vaid see võiks olla üheks osaks kogu Eesti loodusressursside kasutamist ja majandamist hõlmavast asukohapõhisest nõuandesüsteemist.

Part five of of an interview with educators in the Leominster, Massachusetts area. Topics include: Experiences as students in the Leominster school system. Kindergarten classes and moving students along in bilingual education. Funding to keep students in school and in programs that work for individuals. How parents support education. ; 1 SPEAKER 1: For example, um, we talked about the original Head Start. You went to kindergarten. I couldn't believe that. [Laughter] Okay. I mean, the whole intent, and correct me if you see it differently, but the whole intent of Head Start is that society sees that there's a group of children who don't have the exposure, whether it's cultural, whether it's language development, they don't have the exposure in their formative years. And when they get to kindergarten or when they get to first grade, they're kind of behind. And, primarily, we identify those kids as coming from lowest socio-economic backgrounds. Okay? So, the idea was to begin a Head Start program and target that population. But who will fund it? A wonderful idea. And I think that as you look at the longitudinal studies that have been done over 20, 30 years since Head Start, you see that kids who have gone through Head Start have been more successful in school, is less apt to drop out, less pregnancy, uh, less involvement with substance abuse, and so on. It seems to be a pair, okay? And yet, the federal government only funds Head Start to the point where only about 56 percent of the kids who are eligible, not all preschoolers, only the kids from socio-economic background who are financially eligible for Head Start, that's how many can go. You check with a Head Start program [alumnus], or you go to the government, you go anywhere you want, and they cannot take all of the kids who qualify. Why? Because the funding isn't there. That's the problem. A need is seen but the immediacy of that need is not recognized. SPEAKER 2: Is that why…? What is the reason that Lancaster Street had the only kindergarten? And you went to that. SPEAKER 3: You know, that I don't know. SPEAKER 1: But maybe, just… SPEAKER 3: My experience was like kind of just the opposite because my kindergarten teacher was Ms. [Trinkle]. She married another teacher. SPEAKER 4: Coach Sullivan.2 SPEAKER 3: Sullivan. Right. SPEAKER 1: Okay. SPEAKER 2: She married [unintelligible - 00:02:28]? How do you know so? SPEAKER 3: So, then I was ready for the first break. Now, I'm in kindergarten, and she felt I was ready for the first grade, so they sent me. My birthday was in January, so therefore, I was supposed to wait like another year. And I remember Miss Lincoln… do you remember her? She had some administrative position. And I remember her testing me [unintelligible - 00:02:55]. SPEAKER 2: Was the class at Lancaster Street predominantly Italian? SPEAKER 3: Everybody were. SPEAKER 4: I went to that one before she did and my kindergarten teacher was Ms. Kendall, and they started the kindergarten because the whole area was all Italian children. They did not speak English. SPEAKER 2: And that, really, in disguise, was the first bilingual program in Leominster. SPEAKER 1: Yeah. It was the forerunner. SPEAKER 3: I think so. Probably true. SPEAKER 2: That… really. SPEAKER 1: They were trying to address the same name in a different way. SPEAKER 2: But the way they went about it is a lot different from "transitional bilingual education." SPEAKER 3: But, instead of keeping me in that class for two years, she move me on. SPEAKER 1: If you want… to tell you the story, the same thing happened to him. They want to keep him back. Am I right? SPEAKER 3: No, I'm just saying age-wise. SPEAKER 2: Yeah. SPEAKER 1: Right. SPEAKER 3: I would have had to stay there another year. SPEAKER 1: Right. I see. SPEAKER 3: Probably because they felt that I was [pretty] and trusted me. 3 SPEAKER 4: And then, moving on. SPEAKER 1: Let's say they did something different. They did something different for that population. They put them in kindergarten. They brought them to school a year earlier. SPEAKER 4: That's right. SPEAKER 1: They didn't do that for the general population. Right? SPEAKER 3: A friend of mine gave me a copy of the class picture that I had never seen in my life until maybe the last year, year and a half, and I must tell you, we really did look like ragamuffins [laughter]. But it's such a pleasure to look at that picture. I mean, it's your roots. SPEAKER 2: Yeah. SPEAKER 3: It's your roots. SPEAKER 4: Now, my kindergarten class progressed as a whole. You were in kindergarten. The next year you're in first grade, second grade, and I don't remember a lot of kids being held back. They just went on. SPEAKER 2: This is my whole point of modern versus [test], need versus popularity -- popular to have the bilingual program, need to get these kids go on and started. SPEAKER 4: It's also numbers. SPEAKER 2: Absolutely. SPEAKER 4: It's also numbers. SPEAKER 2: Absolutely. And experiment. SPEAKER 3: We were a very small… Leominster was a very small… SPEAKER 2: But the philosophy. I don't care if there are a thousand or a hundred. The philosophy was different. That's my whole point. Our philosophy was to get them in there, teach them English, get them going, and they'll be fine. And that turns out to be exactly true because as Lucy said, you want to go back and trace the history of folk. Those Italian kids started that first bilingual class. They did fine. They did very well in the city of Leominster. 4 SPEAKER 4: On the other hand, there were kindergarten students [unintelligible - 00:05:29] were we at 12th grade, or…? SPEAKER 5: Well, they never had… SPEAKER 3: Twelfth. SPEAKER 1: With me, as I said, I was 9 years old, so I would have started third grade. I guess about third grade and I stayed just a couple of months. We came to the United States and landed in February and I was put into the first grade. I didn't speak a word of English. I was 9 years old put into the first grade just to be under that school year. And then, I spent that summer in Indiana. I came back in the fall. I went into grade 2. Halfway through the year, the teachers made a decision and they pulled me out of the second grade. They felt I knew English well enough at that point. And they brought me across the hall and put me in the fourth grade classroom. So I started the year on grade 2, ended the year on grade 4. That following September, I was in [unintelligible - 00:06:37] and went into grade 5 with Mrs. McGraw. SPEAKER 2: Today, if you were 12, you had a CORE evaluation. Think about it. SPEAKER 4: Yes. SPEAKER 1: I still graduated a year behind you know, my age group. I lost a year, okay, although I ended up you know, skipping a couple of grades. But I was fortunate in that I was able to survive that. But I'm telling you that there were many others who did not survive that kind of so called "immersion." So, you know, Vinnie is right. You have to look at the individual and say, you know, "What's best for this person?" Not just today, but think about what you're doing in terms of how it's going to affect that person's lifetime. Because the greatest cost for failure is after a person leaves school. Well, you can put a kid into special education as costly as that might be. You can put a kid into bilingual program and some added cost. But you 5 have a youngster who drops out of school and fails, end up in jail or gets pregnant, is on drugs. Your sending a youngster to jail is going to cost you $50,000 a year to keep that person. SPEAKER 3: And you know, when they went in, they will know when they come out because they learned from each other. There's a teaching going on there as well. SPEAKER 1: Exactly. And that's why I believe in you know, rehabilitation programs in prisons, because, I mean, what else are you going to spend that money for? If it's just for punishment, if it's just for revenge, you wanted… you know, a person did something wrong, you're going to pay. So you're going to spend 10 years behind bars. Okay? But then stop and think about what happens when that person comes out. Are you going to end up sending that person back? Hopefully, that person becomes a contributing member of the society or if not contribute, at least you know, not detract from society. It's you know, the longer range. We're all human beings. SPEAKER 2: If you wanted to trace back again to that kindergarten class and at the beginning of that program with Lucy's, and trace how many of those people "went to jail" or on drugs, that got in trouble? You'd find there are few. You'd find very few. Think about it. And, going back to the point, the last one, we didn't have to spend a lot of money on the law enforcement, okay? Because parents… let's get to that point. Ethnic families – French, Italian, and others [unintelligible - 00:09:04] – were very proud people. Okay? And they didn't want to be embarrassed by having an officer come to the house. They took care of their own problems. All the teachers had… I can remember breaking a window. It was an accident but I was throwing stones and threw it the wrong direction and broke a window. Ms. Gallagher called up my house, the principal, to tell my mother. End of problem. End of problem. [Laughs] I mean, guys, I didn't have to be told more than once. SPEAKER 4: No. That's right.6 SPEAKER 2: Okay? Because that's the difference there. SPEAKER 3: Starting with Miss [Partimo], she was a fourth grade teacher, I had [unintelligible - 00:09:44] Miss [Partimo] for two weeks. And it was [glorious]. So they somehow closed down the fourth grade, and they sent half the class to the third grade and half the class to the fifth grade. And I had Miss [Gallagher] and Miss [unintelligible - 00:10:01]. She was the principal and she taught girls. I went to see her. She is deceased this year. But a year ago, when we did all that for the honorary members, I brought flowers to each of these women that couldn't attend the meeting partially because of transportation. And Miss Gallagher was one of them. And we sat and had the longest chat and then we talked about [unintelligible - 00:10:28]. One of the things that I came away with, she marveled at how… she found her job as relatively easy because of the parents that she worked with, the Italian parents and how… they wanted the best for their children. They wanted an education for their children. But the teacher was always right that they were going to follow the rules. And boy, the last thing a teacher has to say to you was, "I'm going to tell your parents." Oh, my God. You'd shiver and shake because again that was the worst thing in the world. Not to say [unintelligible - 00:11:08]. I don't mean that but… SPEAKER 2: Do you remember when your mother went to the [unintelligible - 00:11:12] to the open house [unintelligible - 00:11:14] you know. I didn't worry about my mother saying, and I know your mother well… I didn't worry about my mother saying and the teacher saying "Joseph is not doing…" That was expected. You came from an Italian home. You're expected to do well. "How is he behaving?" The teacher said, "Well, Joseph is a little loquacious." SPEAKER 4: [Laughter].7 SPEAKER 2: [Laughs]. I would hide under the… like a fool, I was hiding under the sheets. [Unintelligible - 00:11:46] [Laughter] But that was called pride. Your parents had pride and you didn't embarrass them. SPEAKER 1: They wanted you to be respectful. SPEAKER 2: That's right. SPEAKER 1: But I have to believe that… I don't care what ethnic group you're talking about, that basically parents want their kids to succeed. SPEAKER 3: That's right. SPEAKER 1: Okay? And you know, today, we use the word partnership. Education is a partnership, you know, the home and the school. I mean, they're all elements in a successful equation, I guess, if you want to call it that. You do have to have parents that support kids and support education. You know, Vinnie, tell us the story about you that you were telling me last week when you came to the United States. And at some point, there was a decision to be made about you going on in school or going to work. I thought that was quite interesting, okay? You might share that. SPEAKER 2: Maybe the support system that we have today is quite different from what it used to be years ago when family would contribute their ideas. And what relatives would say would be very important to determine what young children would take as their career, would take as a job, would do as the next thing. In my own personal experience, I know that it wasn't easy for me to go to school, especially to middle school in Italy because first of all, conditions were right after the war. Everything was with much destruction all around. And the fields, I remember one of the main sources of our income was the vineyards. My grandfather produced grapes and wine to be sold and to be processed. And as the story goes, they just had an attack by [unintelligible - 00:14:03] which destroys the grapevines, and then you need seven years before you can get production up again. So, the source of income was not available. My father had just come back from being a prisoner of war, and of course, you don't earn money while you're a prisoner of war. You're as 8 destitute when you come out as you were when you went in. And he was there seven years. This was in 1947. And when you make a decision to have your son continue the education, you have to buy the books. You have to provide the money to go to the district school which is [unintelligible - 00:14:53], which is not very far, but the bus that took you there was a jungle bus that also went to Padova, and so it took about 45 minutes for what would nowadays be maybe a 10-minute ride. SPEAKER 1: It was seven miles, and [unintelligible - 00:15:06]. SPEAKER 2: [Unintelligible - 00:15:06] But it took at least half an hour, 45 minutes with a detour to [unintelligible - 00:15:14] with stops for the general public. But, if you have to go everyday to school like that, you have to have a subscription to the bus and you have to come up every month with the money to pay for this transportation, plus the books were expensive. The books that you buy are dictionaries, textbooks. And I remember, I still have some of my old textbooks. The paper on which they were printed was so flimsy and the margins almost nonexistent because they tried to cram as much print as possible in the fewest number of pages. But, anyway, I know that my mother, whenever we needed to buy a textbook and we didn't have the money, she'd have to go around and beg, borrow, steal, as they say, for money for me to buy these books so we could continue our education. So, when we finally decided that I would come to the States and the idea was, "Well, should I go to work or should I continue with my education, knowing I have done reasonably well in school and that my family has invested all this money and effort in my ongoing education?" And of course, my father at that time was not in the best of health and my relatives were pointing out you know, "He's young. He's strong. He can get a job and get relatively good money coming right away. 9 Whereas, if you decide that he should go to school, first of all, he'd have to learn English, second, you have no income for him, third, you have to provide him with decent clothes and food. So that's going to be, instead of a plus, a drain on the family." But…/AT/mb

Social innovations are activities aiming at implementation of social objectives, including mainly the improvement of life of individuals and social groups, together with public policy and management objectives. The essay indicates and discusses the most important contemporary problems, solving of which requires social innovations.

Social innovations precondition the progress of civilisation. The world needs not only new technologies, but also new solutions of social and institutional nature that would be conducive to achieving social goals.

Social innovations are experimental social actions of organisational and institutional nature that aim at improving the quality of life of individuals, communities, nations, companies, circles, or social groups. Their experimental nature stems from the fact of introducing unique and one-time solutions on a large scale, the end results of which are often difficult to be fully predicted. For example, it was difficult to believe that opening new labour markets for foreigners in the countries of the European Union, which can be treated as a social innovation aiming at development of the international labour market, will result in the rapid development of the low-cost airlines, the offer of which will be available to a larger group of recipients. In other words, social innovations differ from economic innovations, as they are not about implementation of new types of production or gaining new markets, but about satisfying new needs, which are not provided by the market. Therefore, the most important distinction consists in that social innovations are concerned with improving the well-being of individuals and communities by additional employment, or increased consumption, as well as participation in solving the problems of individuals and social groups [CSTP, 2011]. In general, social innovations are activities aiming at implementation of social objectives, including mainly the improvement of life of individuals and social groups together with the objectives of public policy and management [Kowalczyk, Sobiecki, 2017]. Their implementation requires global, national, and individual actions. This requires joint operations, both at the scale of the entire globe, as well as in particular interest groups.

Why are social innovations a key point for the progress of civilisation? This is the effect of the clear domination of economic aspects and discrimination of social aspects of this progress. Until the 19th century, the economy was a part of a social structure. As described by K. Polanyi, it was submerged in social relations [Polanyi, 2010, p. 56]. In traditional societies, the economic system was in fact derived from the organisation of the society itself. The economy, consisting of small and dispersed craft businesses, was a part of the social, family, and neighbourhood structure. In the 20th century the situation reversed – the economy started to be the force shaping social structures, positions of individual groups, areas of wealth and poverty. The economy and the market mechanism have become independent from the world of politics and society. Today, the corporations control our lives. They decide what we eat, what we watch, what we wear, where we work and what we do [Bakan, 2006, p. 13].

The corporations started this spectacular "march to rule the world" in the late 19th century. After about a hundred years, at the end of the 20th century, the state under the pressure of corporations and globalisation, started a gradual, but systematic withdrawal from the economy, market and many other functions traditionally belonging to it. As a result, at the end of the last century, a corporation has become a dominant institution in the world. A characteristic feature of this condition is that it gives a complete priority to the interests of corporations. They make decisions of often adverse consequences for the entire social groups, regions, or local communities. They lead to social tensions, political breakdowns, and most often to repeated market turbulences. Thus, a substantial minority (corporations) obtain inconceivable benefits at the expense of the vast majority, that is broad professional and social groups. The lack of relative balance between the economy and society is a barrier to the progress of civilisation.

A growing global concern is the problem of migration. The present crisis, left unresolved, in the long term will return multiplied. Today, there are about 500 million people living in Europe, 1.5 billion in Africa and the Middle East, but in 2100, the population of Europe will be about 400 million and of the Middle East and Africa approximately 4.5 billion. Solving this problem, mainly through social and political innovations, can take place only by a joint operation of highly developed and developing countries. Is it an easy task? It's very difficult. Unfortunately, today, the world is going in the opposite direction. Instead of pursuing the community, empathic thinking, it aims towards nationalism and chauvinism. An example might be a part of the inaugural address of President Donald Trump, who said that the right of all nations is to put their own interests first. Of course, the United States of America will think about their own interests. As we go in the opposite direction, those who deal with global issues say – nothing will change, unless there is some great crisis, a major disaster that would cause that the great of this world will come to senses.

J.E. Stiglitz [2004], contrary to the current thinking and practice, believes that a different and better world is possible. Globalisation contains the potential of countless benefits from which people both in developing and highly developed countries can benefit. But the practice so far proves that still it is not grown up enough to use its potential in a fair manner. What is needed are new solutions, most of all social and political innovations (political, because they involve a violation of the previous arrangement of interests). Failure to search for breakthrough innovations of social and political nature that would meet the modern challenges, can lead the world to a disaster. Social innovation, and not economic, because the contemporary civilisation problems have their roots in this dimension.

A global problem, solution of which requires innovations of social and political nature, is the disruption of the balance between work and capital. In 2010, 400 richest people had assets such as the half of the poorer population of the world. In 2016, such part was in the possession of only 8 people. This shows the dramatic collapse of the balance between work and capital. The world cannot develop creating the technological progress while increasing unjustified inequalities, which inevitably lead to an outbreak of civil disturbances. This outbreak can have various organisation forms. In the days of the Internet and social media, it is easier to communicate with people. Therefore, paradoxically, some modern technologies create the conditions facilitating social protests. There is one more important and dangerous effect of implementing technological innovations without simultaneous creation and implementation of social innovations limiting the sky-rocketing increase of economic (followed by social) diversification. Sooner or later, technological progress will become so widespread that, due to the relatively low prices, it will make it possible for the weapons of mass destruction, especially biological and chemical weapons, to reach small terrorist groups. Then, a total, individualized war of global reach can develop. The individualisation of war will follow, as described by the famous German sociologist Ulrich Beck.

To avoid this, it is worth looking at the achievements of the Polish scientist Michał Kalecki, who 75 years ago argued that capitalism alone is not able to develop. It is because it aggressively seeks profit growth, but cannot turn profit into some profitable investments. Therefore, when uncertainty grows, capitalism cannot develop itself, and it must be accompanied by external factors, named by Kalecki – external development factors. These factors include state expenses, finances and, in accordance with the nomenclature of Kalecki – epochal innovations. And what are the current possibilities of activation of the external factors? In short – modest. The countries are indebted, and the basis for the development in the last 20 years were loans, which contributed to the growth of debt of economic entities. What, then, should we do? It is necessary to look for cheaper solutions, but such that are effective, that is breakthrough innovations. These undoubtedly include social and political innovations. Contemporary social innovation is not about investing big money and expensive resources in production, e.g. of a very expensive vaccine, which would be available for a small group of recipients. Today's social innovation should stimulate the use of lower amounts of resources to produce more products available to larger groups of recipients.

The progress of civilisation happens only as a result of a sustainable development in economic, social, and now also ecological terms. Economic (business) innovations, which help accelerate the growth rate of production and services, contribute to economic development. Profits of corporations increase and, at the same time, the economic objectives of the corporations are realised. But are the objectives of the society as a whole and its members individually realised equally, in parallel? In the chain of social reproduction there are four repeated phases: production – distribution – exchange – consumption. The key point from the social point of view is the phase of distribution. But what are the rules of distribution, how much and who gets from this "cake" produced in the social process of production? In the today's increasingly global economy, the most important mechanism of distribution is the market mechanism. However, in the long run, this mechanism leads to growing income and welfare disparities of various social groups.
Although, the income and welfare diversity in itself is nothing wrong, as it is the result of the diversification of effectiveness of factors of production, including work, the growing disparities to a large extent cannot be justified. Economic situation of the society members increasingly depends not on the contribution of work, but on the size of the capital invested, and the market position of the economic entity, and on the "governing power of capital" on the market. It should also be noted that this diversification is also related to speculative activities. Disparities between the implemented economic and social innovations can lead to the collapse of the progress of civilisation.

Nowadays, economic crises are often justified by, indeed, social and political considerations, such as marginalisation of nation states, imbalance of power (or imbalance of fear), religious conflicts, nationalism, chauvinism, etc. It is also considered that the first global financial crisis of the 21st century originated from the wrong social policy pursued by the US Government, which led to the creation of a gigantic public debt, which consequently led to an economic breakdown. This resulted in the financial crisis, but also in deepening of the social imbalances and widening of the circles of poverty and social exclusion. It can even be stated that it was a crisis in public confidence. Therefore, the causes of crises are the conflicts between the economic dimension of the development and its social dimension.

Contemporary world is filled with various innovations of economic or business nature (including technological, product, marketing, and in part – organisational). The existing solutions can be a source of economic progress, which is a component of the progress of civilisation. However, economic innovations do not complete the entire progress of civilisation moreover, the saturation, and often supersaturation with implementations and economic innovations leads to an excessive use of material factors of production. As a consequence, it results in lowering of the efficiency of their use, unnecessary extra burden to the planet, and passing of the negative effects on the society and future generations (of consumers). On the other hand, it leads to forcing the consumption of durable consumer goods, and gathering them "just in case", and also to the low degree of their use (e.g. more cars in a household than its members results in the additional load on traffic routes, which results in an increase in the inconvenience of movement of people, thus to the reduction of the quality of life).

Introduction of yet another economic innovation will not solve this problem. It can be solved only by social innovations that are in a permanent shortage. A social innovation which fosters solving the issue of excessive accumulation of tangible production goods is a developing phenomenon called sharing economy. It is based on the principle: "the use of a service provided by some welfare does not require being its owner". This principle allows for an economic use of resources located in households, but which have been "latent" so far. In this way, increasing of the scope of services provided (transport, residential and tourist accommodation) does not require any growth of additional tangible resources of factors of production. So, it contributes to the growth of household incomes, and inhibition of loading the planet with material goods processed by man [see Poniatowska-Jaksch, Sobiecki, 2016]. Another example: we live in times, in which, contrary to the law of T. Malthus, the planet is able to feed all people, that is to guarantee their minimum required nutrients. But still, millions of people die of starvation and malnutrition, but also due to obesity. Can this problem be solved with another economic innovation? Certainly not! Economic innovations will certainly help to partially solve the problem of nutrition, at least by the new methods of storing and preservation of foods, to reduce its waste in the phase of storage and transport. However, a key condition to solve this problem is to create and implement an innovation of a social nature (in many cases also political). We will not be able to speak about the progress of civilisation in a situation, where there are people dying of starvation and malnutrition.

A growing global social concern, resulting from implementation of an economic (technological) innovation will be robotisation, and more specifically – the effects arising from its dissemination on a large scale. So far, the issue has been postponed due to globalisation of the labour market, which led to cheapening of the work factor by more than ten times in the countries of Asia or South America. But it ends slowly. Labour becomes more and more expensive, which means that the robots become relatively cheap. The mechanism leading to low prices of the labour factor expires. Wages increase, and this changes the relationship of the prices of capital and labour. Capital becomes relatively cheaper and cheaper, and this leads to reducing of the demand for work, at the same time increasing the demand for capital (in the form of robots).

The introduction of robots will be an effect of the phenomenon of substitution of the factors of production. A cheaper factor (in this case capital in the form of robots) will be cheaper than the same activities performed by man. According to W. Szymański [2017], such change is a dysfunction of capitalism. A great challenge, because capitalism is based on the market-driven shaping of income. The market-driven shaping of income means that the income is derived from the sale of the factors of production. Most people have income from employment. Robots change this mechanism. It is estimated that scientific progress allows to create such number of robots that will replace billion people in the world. What will happen to those "superseded", what will replace the income from human labour? Capitalism will face an institutional challenge, and must replace the market-driven shaping of income with another, new one. The introduction of robots means microeconomic battle with the barrier of demand. To sell more, one needs to cut costs. The costs are lowered by the introduction of robots, but the use of robots reduces the demand for human labour. Lowering the demand for human labour results in the reduction of employment, and lower wages. Lower wages result in the reduction of the demand for goods and services. To increase the demand for goods and services, the companies must lower their costs, so they increase the involvement of robots, etc.

A mechanism of the vicious circle appears

If such a mass substitution of the factors of production is unfavourable from the point of view of stimulating the development of the economy, then something must be done to improve the adverse price relations for labour. How can the conditions of competition between a robot and a man be made equal, at least partially? Robots should be taxed. Bill Gates, among others, is a supporter of such a solution. However, this is only one of the tools that can be used. The solution of the problem requires a change in the mechanism, so a breakthrough innovation of a social and political nature. We can say that technological and product innovations force the creation of social and political innovations (maybe institutional changes). Product innovations solve some problems (e.g. they contribute to the reduction of production costs), but at the same time, give rise to others.

Progress of civilisation for centuries and even millennia was primarily an intellectual progress. It was difficult to discuss economic progress at that time. Then we had to deal with the imbalance between the economic and the social element. The insufficiency of the economic factor (otherwise than it is today) was the reason for the tensions and crises. Estimates of growth indicate that the increase in industrial production from ancient times to the first industrial revolution, that is until about 1700, was 0.1-0.2 per year on average. Only the next centuries brought about systematically increasing pace of economic growth. During 1700- 1820, it was 0.5% on an annual average, and between 1820-1913 – 1.5%, and between 1913-2012 – 3.0% [Piketty, 2015, p. 97]. So, the significant pace of the economic growth is found only at the turn of the 19th and 20th century. Additionally, the growth in this period refers predominantly to Europe and North America. The countries on other continents were either stuck in colonialism, structurally similar to the medieval period, or "lived" on the history of their former glory, as, for example, China and Japan, or to a lesser extent some countries of the Middle East and South America. The growth, having then the signs of the modern growth, that is the growth based on technological progress, was attributed mainly to Europe and the United States.

The progress of civilisation requires the creation of new social initiatives. Social innovations are indeed an additional capital to keep the social structure in balance. The social capital is seen as a means and purpose and as a primary source of new values for the members of the society. Social innovations also motivate every citizen to actively participate in this process. It is necessary, because traditional ways of solving social problems, even those known for a long time as unemployment, ageing of the society, or exclusion of considerable social and professional groups from the social and economic development, simply fail. "Old" problems are joined by new ones, such as the increase of social inequalities, climate change, or rapidly growing environmental pollution. New phenomena and problems require new solutions, changes to existing procedures, programmes, and often a completely different approach and instruments [Kowalczyk, Sobiecki, 2017].

Für die Wirtschaft von Vietnam ist die Ausfuhr von Holzprodukten mit 3,8% des Bruttosozialprodukts ein wichtiger Bestandteil (Nguyen, 2011). Im Jahr 2010 benötigte die holzverarbeitende Industrie von Vietnam 6,4 Mio. m³ Rundholzäquivalente, von denen nur 1,6 Mio. m³ (25%) aus heimischen Wäldern stammte (To and Canby, 2011). Die restlichen 4,8 Mio. m³ (75%) wurden aus anderen Ländern eingeführt (Nguyen, 2009). Es ist Ziel der vietnamesischen Regierung, dass in Zukunft 80% des Rohholzverbrauchs der heimischen Holzindustrie aus den Wäldern (Naturwäldern und Plantagen) des Landes geliefert werden. Bis heute sind lediglich 1% der vietnamesischen für die Holzproduktion bestimmten Wälder (insgesamt mehr als 2,4 Mio. ha) in Bezug auf ihre Nachhaltigkeit zertifiziert, dieser Anteil soll bis 2020 auf 30% ansteigen. Um die genannten Ziele zu erreichen, ist es entscheidend, die Holzbereitstellungsketten in Vietnam weiterzuentwickeln. Die angestrebte Erhöhung der nationalen Holzversorgung wird dabei auch deutliche Änderungen im Bereich der Holzbereitstellung nach sich ziehen, und zwar sowohl bei der Nutzung von Naturwäldern als auch bei der Bewirtschaftung von Plantagenwäldern. Es ist sowohl aus nationaler Sicht wie auch im Hinblick auf die internationale Konkurrenzfähigkeit des Forst-Holz-Sektors von Vietnam entscheidend, dass diese Veränderungen so gestaltet werden, dass auch zukünftig eine nachhaltige Holzbereitstellung gewährleistet ist. Aus verschiedenen Gründen, wie z.B. niedrige Arbeitskosten, großes Angebot von Arbeitskräften gerade im ländlichen Raum, geringe Verfügbarkeit von Investitionskapital und auch wegen der kleinen und zerstreut liegenden Nutzungsflächen, bedient sich die Holzernte und –bereitstellung in Vietnam heute weit überwiegend traditioneller und handarbeits-intensiver Methoden. Parallel mit der geplanten höheren Nutzung werden zwangsläufig auch höher mechanisierte Systeme eingesetzt werden. Diesen Übergang zu begleiten und seine Konsequenzen für die Nachhaltigkeit abzuschätzen ist Oberziel der vorliegenden Arbeit. Unter Anwendung des Konzepts des Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA), welches die drei Aspekte der Nachhaltigkeit (Wirtschaft, Ökologie, Gesellschaft) umfasst, soll das Nachhaltigkeitsprofil verschiedener Holzbereitstellungsketten in einem Fallstudien-basierten Ansatz dargestellt und analysiert werden. Dabei werden exemplarisch die folgenden Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren herangezogen: Ausnutzungsgrad des Rundholzes, Arbeitsproduktivität, Bereitstellungskosten, Beschäftigungseffekte, Lohnhöhe, Unfallhäufigkeit, Emission von klimaschädlichen Gasen, Entstehung von gesundheitsschädlichem und nicht-gesundheitsschädlichem Abfall, sowie Schäden am Waldboden. Vier Fallstudien wurden dabei ausgewählt, um die Verhältnisse für typische Nutzungsverhältnisse in Vietnam exemplarisch darzustellen: Selektive Nutzung von natürlichen (Regen-) Wäldern in eher flachem und in steilem Gelände sowie Eukalyptusplantagen, die im Kurzumtrieb und mit Kahlschlagmethoden geerntet werden, ebenfalls in gemäßigtem und imsteilem Gelände. Die analysierten Bereitstellungsketten begannen im Wald mit der Vorbereitung der jeweiligen Nutzungsbestände und umfassten alle folgenden Schritte und Prozesse der Holzbereitstellung und des Holztransports bis hin zur Holzindustrie. In den verschiedenen Fallstudien kamen sowohl traditionelle Technologien (Handarbeit, Zugtiere) wie auch teilmechanisierte Systeme (Motorsäge, Traktoren, Forwarder, Lastwagen) zum Einsatz. Die Datenermittlung erfolgte durch ausgedehnte eigene Zeitstudien aller Prozesse vor Ort, ergänzt durch Befragungen von Führungskräften und Mitarbeitern und unter Verwendung einschlägiger Statistiken, Literaturangaben und Datenbanken. Die beiden Fallstudien zur selektiven Nutzung von Naturwäldern im steilen Gelände (FWSC1) sowie im gemäßigten Gelände (FWSC2) zeigen, dass es deutliche Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Nachhaltigkeitswirkungen zwischen den beiden Bereitstellungsketten gibt, die durch die unterschiedlichen angewendeten Holzernte- und –bereitstellungsmethoden verursacht werden. In FWSC1 werden direkt nach der Fällung die Stämme vor Ort im Wald mit der Motorsäge in Bohlen (Volumen 0,20 – 0,35 m³) zerlegt, um diese danach mit Hilfe von Büffeln aus dem Wald heraus zu transportieren. In FWSC2 wurde nach dem Fällen mit der Motorsäge mit einem Kettenfahrzeug mit Seilwinde das Rundholz zur Fahrstraße geschleift. Nach dem Transport mit Lastwagen wurden die Sägeholzblöcke dann im Sägewerk zu Brettern verarbeitet. Die Rundholzausnutzung war bei diesem zweiten Prozess dabei mit 66,6% des Volumens des geernteten Baumes um 27,2%-Punkte höher als bei der ersten Methode, wo die Bohlen bereits im Wald mit Motorsägen zugerichtet wurden. Bei beiden Holzernteverfahren blieb eine relativ große Menge an Gipfelholz, Ästen und (bei FWSC1) Sägeresten ungenutzt im Bestand liegen. In Bezug auf die Produktivität wurden in FWSC1 88,6% des Zeitverbrauchs für Motorsägen-Arbeit auf das Zuschneiden von Bohlen im Wald verwendet, so dass sich insgesamt eine sehr niedrige Produktivität für die Motorsägen-Arbeit von 0,25m³ je Stunden ergab. Auch die Produktivität beim Herausziehen des Holzes mit Büffeln war mit 0,12m³ je Stunde gering. Im Gegensatz dazu war bei dem höhermechanisierten Verfahren sowohl die Motorsägen-Produktivität mit 11m³ je Stunde wie auch die Produktivität der Traktor-Rückung mit 6,7m³ je Stunde deutlich höher. Dies wirkt sich auch auf die Bereitstellungskosten aus: Während diese im FWSC1 bei 50,40 € je m³ Sägeholz lagen, betrug der Kostensatz einschließlich der Sägeholzherstellung im Sägewerk bei FWSC2 nur 34,90 € je m³. In Bezug auf die Umweltaspekte zeigt sich, dass das geringer mechanisierte Verfahren niedrigere Mengen an klimaschädlichen Gasen (7,83 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Sägeholz) frei werden, während bei FWSC2 22,68 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ freigesetzt werden. Auch der Waldboden war bei der mechanisierten Methode mit 12,8% etwas stärker in Anspruch genommen als bei der Holzbereitstellung mit Büffeln (10,7%). Insbesondere ist aber ein starker Schädigungsgrad des Bodens mit 6,2% bei mechanisierten Verfahren fast doppelt so hoch wie bei dem Einsatz von Büffeln (3,45%). Diese Ergebnisse decken sich mit Werten aus der Literatur, die allerdings auch darauf hinweisen, dass eine sorgfältig geplante Holzerntemaßnahme (Reduced Impact Logging – RIL) ebenfalls zu niedrigeren Schadwerten zwischen 4 und 5% der Fläche führen kann. Für die Holzbereitstellungsketten in Eukalyptus-Kurzumtriebs-Plantagen (FWSC3 – Steilgelände und FWSC 4 – mäßig geneigtes Gelände) sind die Voraussetzungen für die Holzbereitstellung und den Holztransport günstiger als in den beiden untersuchten Fällen der Naturwaldnutzung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Rundholzausnutzungsrate mit 79,8% in FWSC3 bzw. 68,9% in FWSC4 relativ hoch ist. Die meisten bei der Aufarbeitung zurückbleibenden Stammteile und Äste wurden im Nachgang von den Waldarbeitern als Feuerholz gesammelt trotz des geringen Durchmessers der gefällten Bäume. Die Geländeneigung hatte nur einen geringen Effekt auf die Produktivität der Motorsägen. Sie betrug 1,95 m³ je Stunde für Fällen und Ablängen in FWSC3 während die Produktivität im gemäßigten Gelände mit 2,11 m³ je Stunde etwas höher lag. Hier wurde das Einschneiden der Stämme nach Langholzrückung erst am Wegrand vorgenommen. Erstaunlicherweise waren die Unterschiede in der Produktivität beim Vorliefern und Rücken des Holzes an die Waldstraße in beiden Fällen nur gering: Sie betrug 0,26 m³ je Stunde in FWSC3, wo im steilen Gelände die bereits zugeschnittenen Rundholzstücke per Hand zum Wegrand gerollt wurden; und 0,33 m³ je Stunde in FWSC4, wo im flachen Gelände Büffel für das Holzrücken eingesetzt wurden. Entsprechend zeigen die Bereitstellungskosten in beiden Holzbereitstellungsketten relativ geringe Unterschiede: Bis zum Verbraucher (Papierfabrik) betrugen die Kosten in FWSC3 10,36 € je m³, während sie in FWSC4 mit 11,7 € je m³ nur wenig höher lagen. Deutliche Unterschiede gab es indessen bei den frei werdenden klimaschädlichen Gasen: In FWSC3 betrug dieser Wert 7,35 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz, während er in FWSC4 beim Einsatz von Tieren bei nur 2,94 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ lag. Entscheidend war hierbei, dass bei FWSC3 das Laden und Entladen des Holzes mit Kran bzw. Lader mechanisiert erfolgte, während das Be- und Entladen in FWSC4 von Hand bewältigt wurde. Die Bodenschäden lagen bei der Plantagennutzung im Kahlschlagbetrieb deutlich höher als zuvor bei der selektiven Nutzung im Naturwald: Beim Fällen und Vorliefern von Hand (FWSC3) war die beschädigte Bodenfläche mit 34,7% nochmals höher als beim Einsatz von Büffeln in FWSC4 mit 22,7% der Fläche. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung zeigen, dass ein möglicherweise zukünftig höherer Grad der (Teil-) Mechanisierung mit positiven Nachhaltigkeitseffekten in Hinblick auf Rohholzausnutzung, Produktivität und Bereitstellungskosten einhergehen dürfte. In Hinblick auf die sozialen Aspekte sind die Ergebnisse weniger eindeutig: Einerseits ist eine deutlich verminderte Schwere der körperlichen Arbeit und auch eine geringere Unfallneigung zu erwarten. Zum anderen gehen jedoch auch Arbeitsplätze durch Mechanisierung verloren. Wie die Literaturangaben zeigen, könnte dieser Effekt jedoch zum Teil kompensiert werden durch die geplante Erhöhung der Nutzung einerseits und durch Arbeitsplätze, die im nachgelagerten Bereich z.B. bei der Wartung und Instandhaltung von Maschinen entstehen werden. In Bezug auf die Umweltwirkungen Emission klimaschädlicher Gase sowie Störungen des Waldbodens werden höhermechanisierte Methoden in der Tendenz ebenfalls zu höheren Belastungen führen. Diese können z.T. durch bessere Planung und Überwachung (RIL) begrenzt oder sogar kompensiert werden, wie entsprechende Literaturangaben zeigen. Die Möglichkeiten und Effekte einer höheren Mechanisierung wurden am Beispiel der Holzbereitstellungskette von Zellstoffholz aus Plantagen unter günstigen Geländebedingungen (FWSC4) im Sinne einer Variantenstudie detailliert analysiert: Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass unter den gegebenen Geländeverhältnissen das Vorliefern und Rücken von Holz mit Büffeln so wie das besonders anstrengende händische Beladen und Entladen von Holz auf die Transportfahrzeuge durch eine einfache "Traktor-Trailer-Kran" Kombination mechanisiert werden könnte. Ein landwirtschaftlicher Traktor der Stärkeklasse 60 kp mit einem Rundholzanhänger, auf dem ein hydraulischer Kran montiert ist, könnte auch unter den gegebenen für eine Nutzung ungünstigen strukturellen Bedingungen der Eukalyptusplantagen (geringe Stückmasse des Plantagenholzes und kleine Schlagflächen) eingesetzt werden. Die Investitionssumme würde für Vietnam 34.100,-- € betragen. Dies würde zu Bereitstellungskosten von 14,81 € je m³ Rundholz frei Werk führen (wobei die LKW nicht wie derzeit überladen sind). Dieser Kostensatz wäre 15,3 niedriger als die hier untersuchte Methode unter Einsatz von Handarbeit und Zugtieren. In Bezug auf die sozialen Aspekte würde die Einführung eines entsprechend mechanisierten Traktor-Trailer-Kran-Systems den Beschäftigungseffekt von 13,9 Stunden je m³ auf 4,26 Stunden je m³ mehr als halbieren, während andererseits die Löhne von derzeit 3,37 bis 4,29 € je Schicht auf 7,14 bis 17,85 € je Schicht erhöht wurden. Die höhere Mechanisierung würde ein besseres Training der Mitarbeiter erfordern, aber gleichzeitig geringere Risiken für Unfälle und eine verbesserte Ergonomie bedeuten. In Bezug auf die Umweltwirkung würde der Übergang auf das höher mechanisierte System zu einem etwas höheren Ausstoß von klimaschädlichen Gasen (10,18 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz gegenüber 7,2 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz in der derzeitigen Arbeitsweise führen. Der durch den Traktoreinsatz beeinträchtigte Anteil des Waldbodens würde sich je nach Arbeitsorganisation ggf. noch erhöhen. Er könnte aber auch abgesenkt werden, auch wenn eine klare Arbeitsorganisation und Überwachung der Maschinenbewegungen auf der Fläche als Standard eingeführt würde. Um den für Vietnam zu erwartenden Übergang auf eine höhere Mechanisierungsstufe auf breiter Fläche zu begleiten, sollte ein nationales Projekt angestoßen werden, zu dem auch systematische Aus- und Fortbildung der im Wald tätigen Arbeiter sowohl im Hinblick auf Arbeitsverfahren wie auch auf Sicherheit und Ergonomie gehören sollte. Auch wäre es günstig, größere Nutzungseinheiten festzulegen, um die Vorteile einer höheren Mechanisierung voll nutzen zu können. Schließlich wäre die Vergabe von Investitionshilfen und Steuer- sowie Importzollsenkungen zu erwägen, um den Akteuren die Anschaffung leistungsfähiger und zugleich schonender Forsttechnik zu erleichtern. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse Wege und Möglichkeiten auf, wie in Vietnam dem laufenden Trend zu mehr Nachhaltigkeit im Forstsektor entsprochen werden kann. Dies ist auch eine notwendige Vorbereitung zu der angestrebten Ausweitung der Nachhaltikeitszertifizierung nach den verschiedenen Konzepten (FSC, PEFC usw.). Auch zur Erfüllung der Erwartung von Importländern, dass die eingeführten Holzprodukte hohen sozialen und Umweltstandards genügen, ist es notwendig, dass die Wälder in Vietnam nachhaltiger als bisher bewirtschaftet und entsprechend zertifiziert werden. Hierbei ist insbesondere die Art und Weise der Holzbereitstellung und der Gestaltung der Holzernteketten zwischen Forst- und Holzindustrie entscheidend. Die Durchführung von systematischen Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) ist wie in dieser Arbeit gezeigt, ein geeigneter und strukturierter quantitativerAnsatz, um das Nachhaltigkeitsprofil und insbesondere die Schwachstellen der derzeitigen Praktiken aufzuzeigen und Hinweise in Richtung auf eine verbesserte Nachhaltigkeit zu geben. ; Timber related export revenues are an important component in GDP of Vietnam with 3.8% in 2010 (Nguyen, 2011). In 2010, a total of 13.1 million m3 roundwood equivalent was needed for Vietnam's wood processing industry of which only 6.48 million m3 (49.5%) was supplied by domestic forests, the remaining 6.62 million m3 (50.5%) was imported from other countries (Nguyen, 2009; To and Canby, 2011). The target of Vietnamese government by 2020 is that 80% of raw wood material that is processed domestically will be harvested from the country's plantations and natural forests and 30% of production forests (more than 2.4 million ha) will be certified from less than 1% at present. In order to reach these goals, the sector of the domestic forest wood supply chain in Vietnam will play an increasingly important role and will be paid more attention. The envisaged growth of the national wood supply will lead to substantial and significant changes in the forest-wood supply chain (FWSC) in terms of the utilization of natural forests and of plantation forest management. To monitor and shape these changes in a way that supports the sustainability of wood supply is crucial both from the national perspective and for the international competitiveness of the forest wood sector of Vietnam. At present, due to reasons such as low labour costs, employees availability, low available investment capital as well as small areas and the scattered distribution of single harvesting units, the current wood supply in Vietnam is mainly carried out by labour-intensive methods, but parallel to the planned increase in the utilization rate, more mechanized supply chain systems are likely to be introduced. To monitor and assess the options and consequences of this change is the underlying objective of this study. Using the concept of a sustainability impact assessment, taking into account the three aspects of sustainability (economy, ecology and society) the sustainability profile of different forest wood supply chains was analyzed on a case study basis. The following sustainability indicators were addressed: wood utilization rate, labor productivity, production cost, employment, wage level, rate of accidents, green house gas emissions, hazardous and non-hazardous waste and disturbed forest floor area disturbed. Four case studies were selected to represent and assess typical forest wood supply chains in Vietnam: Selective harvesting of natural (rain) forests on moderate and on steep terrain, Eucalyptus plantation forests harvested in a clear-cut method after short rotation, also on moderate and on steep terrain. The analyzed production chains started in the forest with preparing the stand and included all subsequent steps of wood procurement and transport, ending at the mill gate the of wood industries. Traditional technologies (manual labor, buffaloes) as well as partly mechanized systems (chainsaws, tractors, forwarders, trucks) were employed. Data collection was carried out in the field by extensive time studies of all processes, inquiries to managers and workers, and the use of statistics, literature and data banks. The two cases of selective harvesting of natural forests FWSC1 (steep terrain) and FWSC2 (moderate terrain) show that there was a significant difference of sustainability impacts between the two chains mainly due to the various operation methods applied in the logging and transport processes for each chain. In FWSC1 after felling, the logs were sawn into sawnwood by chainsaws directly in the forest at stump side with only 35.6% of the standing tree volume utilized. The boards 0.20-0.35 m3sw per board were extracted by buffaloes from the forest. In FWSC2, a tractor was used for roundwood skidding and following truck transport, the logs were sawn into boards at a local sawmill. The sawlog utilization rate was 66.6% of the standing tree volume of which 45.3% was utilized as sawnwood (27.2% higher than FWSC1) and 21.3% were sawing residues produced at the sawmill. A large amount of the whole tops and branches from logging were left in forests in the both chains. In FWSC1, up to 88.6% of the time consumption of the chainsaws was spent on board sawing, which resulted in a relatively low productivity of chainsaws with only 0.25 m3sw/PMacH for the activities from felling to the board sawing while a productivity of 0.12 m3sw/PAniH was measured for buffalo skidding. On the contrary, in FWSC2 the productivity of felling and delimbing at stump areas by chainsaw was rather high with 11.0 m3sw/PMacH, and a productivity of 6.7 m3rw/PMacH for the roundwood skidding by tractor TDT55 was measured. The resulting, production costs calculated for all the processes in FWSC1 were 50.40 €/m3sw, which was 44.4% higher than in FWSC2 with only 34.90 €/m3sw calculated for the processes until sawing board at the sawmill. However, regarding environmental aspects, FWSC1 with lower mechanization emitted lower GHG with 7.83 kgCO2eq/m3sw calculated to the sawmill, while in FWSC2, GHG emissions were much higher with 22.68 kgCO2eq/m3sw calculated including the board sawing operation at the sawmill. Also, the total disturbed area caused by the logging operations was almost the same in the two chains with 10.7% in FWSC1 and 12.8%. FWSC2 with a higher logging intensity and a higher level of mechanization caused 6.21% of heavy disturbed area while this was only 3.45% in FWSC1. The disturbed area of forest soil in FWSC2 is in the range of 10-25%, which is also reported for other conventional selective logging cases (FAO, 1989; Hendrison, 1989; Verissimo et al., 1992) but much larger than the disturbed area of only 3.8% and 4.5% caused by cases where the Reduced Impact Logging method (RIL) applied (FAO, 1997; Marsh et al., 1996). For the plantation chains FWSC3 (steep terrain) and FWSC4 (moderate terrain), which both applied th clear-cut method, the conditions for log skidding and transport were more favorable than in the two natural forest cases. The study results show that the roundwood utilization rate in plantations was relatively high with 79.8% in FWSC3 and 68.9% in FWSC4. Most of the tops and branches from logging were collected for firewood use although the DBH of the felled trees was much smaller than in the natural forest cases. The terrain slope had only a small effect on chainsaw productivity. The productivity in felling and bucking in FWSC3 with the steep terrain was 1.95 m3rw/PMacH while it was somewhat higher with 2.11 m3rw/PMacH in FWSC4 with the moderate terrain. Similarly, there were also small difference in skidding productivity between the two study cases with 0.26 m3rw/PManH in FWSC3 using manpower to roll logs on the steep terrain and 0.33 m3rw/PAniH in FWSC4, where buffaloes were used for skidding. The production costs of the two plantation chains varied with 10.36 €/m3rw calculated to the paper mill in FWSC3, where loading and unloading were mechanized by forwarder, while it was higher in FWSC4 with 11.70 €/m3rw at the paper mill. Due to the partly mechanized loading method applied, the total GHG emissions in FWSC3 calculated to the paper mill were 7.25 kgCO2eq/m3rw, while by using a manual loading method, FWSC4 emitted only 2.94 kgCO2eq/m3rw calculated to the paper mill from the chainsaws and trucks. On forest soil, where the clear felling method was used, the plantation chains caused a larger disturbed area with 34.7% of the total logging area in FWSC3 and 22.7% in FWSC4 compared to the selective felling in the natural FWSC1 and FWSC2. The results of the study show that in order to improve FWSCs towards more sustainability, a higher level of mechanization with more suitable machines is the first and key proposal, while training in occupational safety, closer supervision and inspection of logging activities, as well as the improvement of operational harvesting planning are needed for all four case studies. In addition, the utilization of branches, tops and other residues is also strongly recommended in natural forest cases. An example of the potentials of higher mechanization was further analyzed in more detail for the pulpwood supply in FWSC4. The results of the analysis show that under the current conditions in Vietnam, buffalo skidding and manual loading and unloading in FWSC4 could be replaced by a tractor-trailer crane system. A tractor of 60 hp plus a trailer equipped with a grapple is recommended for unfavourable forest conditions, such as the small DBH of trees and the small area of the harvesting unit in FWSC4. The total investment for the tractor and trailer crane would be less than 34,100 €, which would result in a total cost of the FWSC to the paper mill of about 14.81 €/m3rw without overloading in transport, which is 15.3% lower than with the current method. Considering social aspects, the introduction of a tractor-trailer system would reduce the employment rate from 13.90 hours/m3rw to 4.26 hours/m3rw, while increasing the wage of employees in extraction, loading and unloading from 3.37-4.29 €/shift to 7.14-17.85 €/shift in current FWSC4. There are a number of studies such as Ahmedabad (1975) and Sindhu and Grewal (1991) that have reported mechanization did not lead to a reduction in human employment rate due to an expansion in production and demand for manufacturing, servicing, distribution, repair and maintenance as well as other complementary jobs which substantially increased due to mechanization. The actual policy of the Vietnamese government aims at increasing the plantation area substantially, and by this, new jobs could compensate the negative employment effects of mechanization. Higher mechanization would require better training in occupational accidents and ergonomics, and better protection for workers by the use of necessary safety protection equipment and improved working conditions. This would improve the current situation of occupational accidents and other health risks for the employees. With regard to environmental issues, the use of the tractor-trailer system would emit 10.18 kgCO2eq/m3rw of GHG instead of 7.25 kgCO2eq/m3rw in the current chain. On the other hand, there are a number of studies such as FAO (1998); Malmer and Grip (1989); Wang (2000) concluding that using tractors for log extraction causes a more heavily disturbed area compared to manual and animal skidding. However, a number of studies reported that the negative impacts of mechanization in logging and transport on the environment could be minimized to an acceptable level if the operational harvesting is fully and carefully planned and supervised Becker (1987) and Lewark (1990). In order to achieve a higher level of mechanization, a project of mechanization in timber harvesting and transport as well as training programs in occupational safety and ergonomics should be considered. Harvesting units with a large area should be created to be suitable for mechanization. In addition, suitable policies supporting financial investments in the mechanization of the logging and transport sector should be promulgated, including reduced import taxes for appropriate forest and agricultural machines. The results of the study show ways and means to address the current international trend in the forest-wood sector towards sustainable management through the grant of forest certificates (such as FSC, PEFC, etc). To fulfill the environmental and social responsibility requirements of exported wood products, domestic forests must be managed and utilized in a sustainable way and thus be certified with special attention to the wood supply chains from forest to wood industry (To and Canby, 2011). The comprehensive assessment and understanding of the sustainability impacts of forest-wood supply chains is necessary and can be considered as the first and basic step towards providing solutions to improve current forest-wood supply practices in Vietnam towards more sustainability.

Karen Litfin on Gaia Theory, Global Ecovillages, and Embedding IR in the Earth System




This is the third in a series of Talks dedicated to the technopolitics of International Relations, linked to the forthcoming double volume 'The Global Politics of Science and Technology' edited by Maximilian Mayer, Mariana Carpes, and Ruth Knoblich 






Many debates in International Relations concern struggles regarding what should be the autonomous limits and focus of the discipline itself. However, increasing environmental and climate concerns challenge the self-contained nature of IR on discrete political phenomena, because what IR considers it's exogenous context is threatening to destabilize the premises of the content of international political practice itself. While such concerns often lead to a securitization and politicization of the environment and climate in IR, some scholars argue we should work towards the exact opposite. In this Talk, Karen Litfin—among others—elaborates on the kind of theory in which IR is embedded in, rather than applied to, natural systems; discusses examples of social arrangements that try to translate that theoretical insight into practice; and engages with questions of secularism and mysticism that irrevocably accompany those efforts.






Print version of this Talk (pdf)




What is, according to you, the biggest challenge / principal debate in current IR? What is your position or answer to this challenge / in this debate?



The fact that we can today truly speak of something of a global economy, the central problem now is to formulate the political institutions that are commensurate to these globalized economic institutions. We have far to go on that project. It also means doing so within the carrying capacity of the earth—that is, politically configuring that global economy in such a way that it doesn't exhaust ecological resources. So I would say that the challenge, in terms of actual politics, is to find those institutions.



The challenge for the discipline of International Relations is to do the necessary thinking to facilitate that institutional transition, but few IR scholars even acknowledge that political institutions must attend to the carrying capacity of the earth. In general, the discipline of International Relations, Political Science and even most of social sciences more generally behave as if there are no natural constraints to our behavior. Yet our freedom to even be able to theorize about the international system is completely dependent upon a vast web of life, other people growing our food, and a whole technological infrastructure that we had nothing to do with creating. International Relations talks a lot about interdependence, but do we really take it seriously?





How did you arrive at where you currently are in IR?



I've always been interested in science and technology. As an undergraduate, I studied physics and astronomy, but I didn't finish those majors because I realized, that if I graduated with those degrees I would most likely be working indirectly or directly for the military. I got politicized and I began to see that the political agenda drives the scientific agenda. This was in the 1970s and it was possible at that time that we were going to have an all-out nuclear war. I did not want to be a part of that.



I began to see that there is a dialectical relationship between science and politics. Because science facilitates the technological changes, which make the basic backdrop for politics, it's very important. For instance, the defense department was funding DARPA, which led—without them fathoming that at the time—to the development of the Internet—now a key site where global politics plays out.



Science also provides metaphors through which we understand politics. I did my Masters thesis on the mechanistic worldview and the devitalization of nature in the 17th century—that is, taking living nature out of our systematic theorizing. While others had written on this, I traced it back to the ancient Greek philosophy. A reductionist and mechanistic worldview underpins a lot of IR theory, as well most of our political institutions. We need to really start questioning that. Another way this plays out is that the notion of the global really had a huge jump when we got the image of Earth fromspace. The idea of Earth Day was really closely aligned to the fact that the image of the earth from space just had come out. Gaia Theory came about because James Lovelock was looking for signs of life on Mars. We were interested in extra-planetary life, but weren't looking at our own system or planet. So basically it turned all that science back on the Earth and said 'Oh my Gosh, we do have this kind of atmosphere that has the telltale science of life in it', which tells us that life is hoping to create the atmosphere. Then to have the human mind to conceptualize that is really huge. The idea that we are the Earth becoming conscious of itself is basically what science is telling us. These monitoring systems are one means by which we have the possibility of becoming conscious of that fact.



In terms of personal trajectory, when I started teaching International Relations back in the early 1990s, I started realizing that petroleum holds the whole thing together, the whole global system was held together by petroleum. (You could also say fossil fuels, but coal and natural gas don't power that much transnationally; it's really the petroleum.) Yet hardly anybody in IR talks seriously about petroleum—or energy or biodiversity or soil or the atmosphere. That's what I mean about getting to the material basis. But having said that, I think how we interact with the material basis is a reflection of our consciousness. So I'm not a material reductionist. Rather, I'm looking for a wholeness that understands our approach to material reality as being a reflection of our consciousness.



So this was why I have become interested in biological metaphors. I still think the leaning edge of human thought is understanding human systems as living systems. From this vantage point, we can begin to reshape our institutions in ways that mimic, sustain, and regenerate living systems. There's a long history of natural law and I don't exactly put myself in that camp, but I think there are ways that we need to understand ourselves as thoroughly embedded in natural systems and then move consciously from that place.





What would a student need to become a specialist in IR or understand the world in a global way?



To my mind, these are very different questions because, at least at many universities, becoming an IR specialist often entails ignoring some fundamental global realities. For one, even though most of humanity lives in so-called developing countries, most IR theory pays attention only to the Global North. Likewise, IR is fairly blind to the fact that the lifestyles of the Global North, if globalized, would require between three and six Earths, depending upon whether you are looking at Europeans or North Americans. Again, there is only one Earth! Fortunately, an important subfield has emerged with IR—global environmental politics—that is helping to rectify the situation.



The question I would prefer to answer is: what would a student need to know in order to understand the most pressing challenges facing the world system? To this, I would advise three things. The first would be to dive deeply into a broad and critical reading of the history of modernity, including the interpenetrating scientific, political, commercial, theological and industrial revolutions that characterize the modern era. The second would be to learn about the primary international institutions (the WTO, World Bank, IMF, EU, UN Security Council, etc.), and ask what is working, what isn't, and why? The third would be to do all of this learning while simultaneously learning to think systemically. Take at least one good course on systems theory; one that specifically offers a strong grounding in living systems, and start making connections. Why, for instance, do 'ecology' and 'economics' share the same root (oikos, Greek for household)? What would it mean to consider the international system as a living system and a subset of the Earth system? If we think this world system that we've created of a globalized economy and rudimentary international law is not a part of a living system, we are living in a big delusion. So to actually understand how living systems function, we need the literature on system theory that of course has been used in biology and ecology, but has also been applied a lot in the business world and organizational development. I think it's making its way into IR.





The world is full of technologies and technological systems (and getting more so each day). Could you elaborate on how this is relevant for IR?



I think that's a huge gap: IR doesn't pay nearly enough attention to technological systems—and when they do, it's generally from an uncritical and mechanical perspective. Even though much of the constructivist critique of liberal institutionalism is that the latter is overly materialistic, it actually isn't as if institutionalists talk about economics as if that were a material reality. Economics is a secondary human system overlaid on, but abstracted from, material systems. I think that IR needs to get really serious about understanding the actual material basis for politics. Climate change will probably be the issue that drives that.



So what kinds of technologies and institutions are we going to have to facilitate a global civilization? Now that's a worthwhile question! As I indicated, we now have a more or less globalized economy, but we don't have a global polis; we don't have the institutions that are commensurate to the economy that we have got. So the question is: can we sustain current civilization on the energy budget that is available to us and not wreck the climate?



Technological systems are driven by energy; energy is the master resource. Some energy analysts say that in order to have a global civilization, we need to have an energy return on energy investments of something like 5 to 1—meaning, for instance, that for each barrel of oil we put into getting more oil, we need to get five back. Right now petroleum is getting—depending on where you find it and how it's getting to you—somewhere between 15 and 25 to 1. That's the Middle East. It used to be 100 to 1 at the beginning of the 19th century. And now we are getting, say, 20:1. I've seen analyses of tar sands that put that energy source at somewhere between 3 and 5 to 1. Solar panels, if they work well, they are maybe getting 5:1. So the trend is worsening and we are starting to push that envelope of 5:1 energy return on investment. And if we exploit some of the new unconventional hydrocarbons—like fracking and, worse, methane hydrates—to their maximum potential, we'll fry the planet.



My question is how we can leverage existing technological, economic, financial and political resources to sustain a global civilization. I dearly wish more people were putting their attention on that question. The underlying assumption for most people is that business as usual can continue. Maybe, but not for long.



I'd like to throw in one little term coined by Stephen Quilley, an environmental sociologist: 'low energy cosmopolitanism' (read the paper here). I think this is a huge challenge for us. If it's possible to have a global civilization on the energy budget that we have available, it's going to be some form of a low energy cosmopolitanism, where we make some very conscious choices about what we are going to globalize. For instance, Germany probably wouldn't be importing grapes from Africa and none of us would be going on luxury vacations. We would be making a lot of conscious choices, but if we want to have a global civilization we have to be globalizing something, so what is it that we are globalizing?





How do you see the question of technological determinism when studying technologies?



This is really important to note, because if you just look at human systems as living systems there can be a kind of materialistic reductionism there. People who think like William Connolly, the new materialism understands that we should not be materialistic reductionists and that there is this wildcard of human consciousness. The fact of the matter is, we can assemble all the data we want but we don't know where we are going. But what we do know is that we've created a tremendously complex and complicated world that nobody can actually understand!



I think we need to address that question in a very specific way with respect of specific technologies, but if we stick to one example—satellites—I think the technologies do have certain properties embedded in them. I have written a feminist theoretical critique of earth observing satellites, where I argued that this kind of gaze from space actually does downplay or preclude certain perspectives. But as I thought about it more deeply, I saw very concretely that a lot of people are using those technologies to do what they want—not what the centralized political and scientific institutions that gave rise to the satellites wanted. So I would say the wildcard here is consciousness and human inventiveness, because that's what will shape how people deploy the technologies once there are on the ground.



For example, satellites were devised for spying and are certainly still being used for spying, but they are being used for so much else, such as Google Maps. I think some people might have been able to foresee that kind of development, but most of us didn't have a clue that this sort of thing could come about. Or that you could have indigenous people mapping their traditional lands in order to make land rights claims. So the wildcard really is human consciousness and that's why nothing really is deterministic. The greater the complexity in a living system, the more surprising its emergent properties. Seven billion human brains linked together in global technological and ecological systems are bound to yield surprises!





You indicated that you use biology and living systems as a reservoir for metaphors. Could you elaborate on that?



If I speak about living systems I usually do so through work called Gaia Theory. Looking through the lens of Gaia Theory, we would first understand that we exist within certain spheres such as biosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere. We have taken geological time and inserted it into human time by digging up fossil fuels. As a consequence, we have kind of checkmated ourselves and are now forced into having to think in geological terms. We have to start thinking in geological time scales, which was never the case before. If we are going to find a way of inhabiting this planet sustainably, particularly if we are going to have anything approaching a global civilization, we have to understand that we live within a living system and then go about the rather daunting but exciting project of developing international law and institutions that reflect that reality.



There is a whole subfield of earth system governance in which Earth system scientists, IR theorists and international legal experts are coming together to think through these questions. The literature on earth system governance starts from the premise that the Earth is a living system and draws heavily on earth system science, which draws heavily from Gaia theory. You cannot separate atmosphere, oceans, lithosphere, and biosphere: they are all intertwined as one big living system—and now humanity is functioning as a geophysical force on a planetary scale. That's the meaning of the Anthropocene, and it will require an entirely new way of going about politics and economics.



So how can we bring the concept of Gaia Theory into practical reality? Besides the emerging field of Earth system governance, we can also do this in a very personal way by beginning to really internalize what it means being a human being at this time. A few years back, I came to the point where I decided that I did not want to theorize about anything I could not live. That turned out to be a huge challenge. After I wrote the 'integral politics' piece (see links below)—and I really do love that piece!—I saw that I couldn't fully live it. It was so big. For me, one of the most important implications of Gaia Theory is that we are the Earth becoming aware of itself. That's a huge implication. If you merely think of it conceptually, it is wonderful mind candy; but if you actually take it to the heart and try to live it, it changes your life. I challenged myself to do this and, at some point, it occurred to me that there must be other people who have traveled farther down that road than I had—in other words, people who had radically changed their lives to reflect their growing awareness that human beings are the Earth becoming conscious of itself. So I found myself traveling around the world to ecovillages which, for me, helped to tie it all together. Why is somebody who's teaching international environmental law and politics wandering around the world visiting these little tiny micro-communities? Because these people are taking the radical implications of Gaia Theory to heart (even if they've never read about it) and collectively changing their material, economic and social lives. That's why I spent a year on the road living in ecovillages. It's a strange thing to be an IR theorist who doesn't want to theorize about anything that she can't live!





Bringing up the issue of how to live your research, could you elaborate on what kind of outlook is necessary to live in accordance to Gaia Theory?



So this leads to the importance of humility for me. The value of humility is that it comes naturally as a consequence of understanding. You do not have to value it in advance; it comes automatically from understanding ourselves as part of this larger living system. In my experience at least, as soon as you grasp that, you automatically have an enormous sense of humility and gratitude. Those two qualities just spontaneously arise from truly grasping that reality. Going back to ecovillages, I asked myself who is living in ways that can actually work for the long run. The result became the eponymous book. I wanted to see collective efforts and particularly larger communities that were generally at least a hundred people, because you can do a lot more collectively, than you can on your own. Some of these communities are reducing their ecological footprint radically. In some cases, we are talking about per capita reductions in material consumption and waste production of 80-90% as compared to their home country averages.



This is very big news—especially given that these communities are still tied to the larger system. They are not tiny isolated enclaves. For instance, they're still using the mass transit of the larger society; most of them have Wi-Fi and high-speed Internet. They're not living in caves and many of them are very much globally engaged. On a material level, they're much closer to living within the Earth's carrying capacity. So in that way, I was very interested in just seeing what are their physical systems. But I began to see that their physical systems were only made possible because of the degree of trust and reciprocity that they have created.



That entails doing a lot of personal work. Diana Leafe-Christian, who has written a number of books on communities, says that 'community life is the longest and most expensive personal growth workshop you'll ever take'. It's true! If you're willing to do the personal work and hang in there through the difficult times and conflicts, you can develop the kind of self that's willing to do some very deep sharing. I would add, though, that this level of sharing is done best when it is respectful of the individualism that we have developed. I don't think that communities should be running roughshod over individualism. There needs to be some balance of privacy and communal life. The communities that work well have figured out a way to do this. To my mind, the communities that work really well are the ones who are working on developing collective forms of consciousness. Which means actually I think going beyond the separative rational mind: it doesn't mean demeaning those qualities, it means using them, but using them in the service of something larger. As I said earlier, progressive change entails transcending and including. Individualism, for all its negative consequences, is a genuine historical achievement.



And I would say on a very practical level, one of the ways that they reduce their footprint is by withdrawing to some extent from the global economy. Having very low consumption and being fairly energy efficient and self-reliant, reliance on food self-sufficiency, but withdrawing from global society. To me, they are answering the question I raised earlier: What would a low-energy cosmopolitanism look like? And they are doing this not just because they consume less and live more simply but because by and large ecovillagers actually have a cosmopolitan identity. They might be growing their own food and composting their shit, but they're also tied into the global system. They're actively engaged in the Internet, sometimes attending global conferences and many of them are politically active on issues such as genetically modified organisms and nuclear waste disposal and human rights.



They are little nodes of positive examples, but they're very small. In fact, hardly anybody lives in an ecovillage, which is why the last chapter of my book is called 'Scaling it up'. I basically look at the underlying principles of ecovillages and talk about how these principles could be scaled up to the level of cities, regions, national government and international norms. I realize this is a big stretch, but I felt that as an International Relations scholar, I at least need to try it. The important misconception you run into that moment is the idea that sustainability needs to be expensive—the idea that somehow we can consume our way into sustainability. Actually, the most sustainable form of consumption is no consumption! Yet this is not what all ecovillages do. There is one community that I visited in up-state New York, in Ithaca, this is the same city that Cornell University is in, where two thirds of the residents have masters degrees or PhDs and their homes are worth more than the average in the area. They have a pretty middle class lifestyle, yet their average ecological footprint is about half the American norm. So they're not sustainable, but they are definitely moving in the right direction. They hired architects and have nice homes, which is a very different approach than that of most rural ecovillages.



In the Global North, the smallest footprints that I saw tended to be in the rural off-grid ecovillages that were more or less self-sufficient in food, energy, and water. In some of these communities, residents were living on as little as 25% of their average national incomes. This is impressive because it tells us that people in affluent countries can live well on far less money and with far less environmental damage than is considered normal in those countries.



Yet the fact of the matter is that most people today live in cities, so it was important for me to also look at urban ecovillages. Los Angeles Ecovillage, for instance, has a very small footprint because it is high-density and automobile use is discouraged. If you lower your transportation footprint by not driving or sharing vehicles, and if you grow your own food or rely upon locally produced food and have and passive solar construction and renewable energy for your buildings, you can dramatically reduce your energy consumption. You can have a much smaller footprint and still have a very comfortable life. People think that you need money in order to live. It seems that we need money in order to live, but actually what we need is food and shelter and transportation and relationships. So if you figure out ways of getting those things without money, you've made a huge step to getting out of the global economy. In a nutshell, that's what ecovillages are doing.





So are ecovillages all the same across the globe? Is it a new 'social form' emerging?



It is different in the developing countries and in the affluent countries, and I think it's important to clarify that at the outset. I visited a number of ecovillages and ecovillage networks in both developing countries and affluent countries. In the latter, there is a greater possibility for what I consider 'post-individualist' that both transcends and includes individualism. A very simple 'post-individualistic' approach to property rights, for instance, would be co-housing, where the land is owned in common and people own their own homes. But their private homes would be a lot smaller because so many amenities are shared. The common house would have a community kitchen, so that, depending upon how much people are willing to share, private kitchens can be very small. If there's a collectively owned guest space, then you don't need a guest room in your house. And if you do a lot of your socializing together, then you can do that in the common house. So your own house could be quite small but you would still have access to all the comforts of a private existence and more. The more people are willing to share, the more will be collectively owned. And that really does require trust, because it's a big problem if the relationships blow up and you have your finances entangled with those people! This is just one example of how property rights can coexist with the softening of boundaries between individuals.



The flipside of this is occurring in developing countries, where the post-individualistic arrangement that I've been making doesn't really apply. And this is important because that's where most people in the world live. There you have cultures where people already have much more of a collective orientation. So we really need to pay attention to what's happening there. Actually, in many cases, their developmental task is to become more individuals. And the question is: how do they become more highly-individualized rather than being subsumed by traditional moral codes—how do they that without over-consuming. In the west, we had a fossil fuel subsidy that enabled us to become highly individualized, as I said before, the only reason we can be having this interview is because somebody else is growing our food.



In developing countries, the real task is to find a way for people to become more individualistic without over consuming. And so this is why I was impressed by the model I saw in Sarvodaya, a Sri Lankan participatory development network that belongs to the Global Ecovillage Network. There, fifteen thousand villages are trying to apply ecovillage principles to create what they call a "no-poverty/no-affluence society." Their programs in micro-finance and women's literacy, for instance, give villagers—especially women—an incentive to stay in the village because they have a livelihood. And when people stay in their villages, they tend to live a lot more sustainably. As the women becoming literate, they begin making choices for themselves and therefore becoming more individualized. So it's a way of hopefully leap-frogging urbanization in order to sustain rural village life.



I should say that you can apply these principles anywhere you live, in cities as well as rural areas. I visited quite a few ecovillages in cities. One of the most important things that the Global Ecovillage Network is doing is training people, wherever they live, to apply ecovillage principles in their urban neighborhoods or wherever they find themselves. There have been some amazing projects coming up in the Brazilian favelas and in China. GEN has developed a course called 'Gaia Education' that's being offered all over the world and especially in developing countries. There's now a Global Ecovillage Network for Africa. There are basic principles of sustainability that, if you live in an ecovillage, you can apply more intentionally, but they are applicable everywhere.





In a way, 'Gaia theory' sounds very spiritual—and for that reason the Gaia concept was initially very much opposed by many physicists and climate scientists. In a way, Gaia theory entails a critique of modernist secularism and faith in technology; how do you see that in your work?



I have mentioned the critique of mechanization in the early modern era, but in fact the early modern scientists, such as Newton, were all looking for God. Now many of the hard sciences are moving in the direction of mysticism—I would speak of mysticism rather than spirituality—but it's not a mysticism that is simply a projection of the human psyche onto the cosmos; rather, it is empirically derived. I think that's a kind of postmodern development that would have been impossible in the pre-modern era. That's what I was saying about transcending and including, that the ideas that we have of who we are in the cosmos are so different as a consequence of modern science. We can transcend those ideas but also include them. From the Big Bang and the evolution of species, we came out of all of that! And implicit within this fact, if you take it deeper, is that there is a secret oneness to it all. I think that the lessons we have to learn politically and economically now are about interdependence. But if you take interdependence to its depths, it too implies a secret oneness. Most importantly for the current evolutionary crisis: that oneness is embedded in our consciousness and we can access that. That is the reason why I don't want to theorize about anything that I can't live; I'm working at that level as well.



It's interesting, because that also has implications for my teaching. I teach in a fairly direct way when I have living bodies and inquiring minds right in front of me and can engage them at a personal level. I give them my big picture view of politics as a subset of living systems and also being a kind of living system. I get them to inhabit that in themselves through doing contemplative and reflective exercises in the classroom. For instance, I'm teaching a class called political ecology of the world food system and we talked about the globalization of different food commodities and where chocolate comes from for instance, where it originally came from, who processes it, how much do the farmers get from all of that. I brought in raw cacao nibs, which most of the students had never tasted before. We talked about where these came from and how expensive they were even though cacao is not processed, because raw cacao is a something of a delicacy. Then I gave them this very highly processed chocolate without sugar and with alternative sweeteners in it. I invited them to really be present to tasting each of these things as I talked about them and I left some significant gaps of silence, they could actually be present to experience of themselves inhabiting the living system and now being the beneficiary of a world food system. How did we come to have cacao from West Africa and stevia from Paraguay in our mouths? What are sociopolitical and biotic networks that have made this possible? And can we allow ourselves to truly experience what it means to be the beneficiary of these living systems? And what of our own as living system? When I am in the classroom it is actually quite easy to teach what I call person/planet politics. I never teach anything as if it is just 'out there'. Whenever I teach anything, I want the students to inhabit it in their bodies, in their experience. And I try to do that as best as I can by living what I teach as best I can.



It is a little embarrassing, but I don't know how all of this applies to IR; I am just trying to do it as best I can in my own life, as it is presented to me. And I write about it and I publish things—I have a piece coming out on localism that basically makes the case for what I call organic globalism, which is a globalization that is premised upon the earth as a living system and international institutions being designed very consciously on that basis. I don't quite know what it looks like but I have a sense of its rightness. To be honest with you, I am better with that in the classroom that I am at the level of large-scale institutions. Because I am beginning to inhabit this in my own being and I can communicate it to students. Maybe the next challenge is to be able to communicate it at a larger level.





So isn't there a tension between living sustainably and participating in a globalized world that is hard-wired in terms of technology?



Consciousness does not at all preclude technology. For example, I think us having this dialogue is on some level contributing to a certain kind of consciousness and it's completely facilitated by technology. Without Skype we wouldn't be having this conversation. What's helpful to me, about what I call E2C2 (ecology, economics, community and consciousness) is that these are four lenses through which to view any phenomenon—and that includes technology. For instance, we can view our Skype conversation through the lens of ecology in terms of the amount of energy that's used. Economically, we might consider what is being produced and what its value is. It's probably a pretty good economic deal since you and I are virtually paying nothing for it! So economically it's a good deal. In terms of the communitarian lens, we are developing a dialogue that will hopefully be in a relational field with many other people, perhaps thereby also contributing to a certain growth of consciousness.



E2C2 offers four lenses through which we can look at technology; they are not mutually exclusive. For me, the question is: to what extent are our technologies beneficial in terms of each of the lenses. Denis Hayes, the guy who started Earth Day, said the basic principle of sustainability is that you leave your molecules at home and export your photons. This brings us back to the concept of low energy cosmopolitanism. It's a huge question: what are we going to globalize? If we are going to have a global civilization we need to have global communication. The Internet is a tremendous achievement in that regard, and could to function as a kind of global brain, though its roots are in its military applications and today it is primarily dominated by commerce. (And I understand that pornography is a big part of it as well.) Despite its limitations, the Internet provides an infrastructure that could enable us to be in communication globally, which is very important if you want to develop a global consciousness and a global civilization. But we need to understand that our technologies must operate within the limits of the Earth system. In other words, technologies—like all human systems—are also living systems.





Last question. So how can we relate this back to IR?



I think one of the ways this is happening is that some pockets of IR are actually returning to foundational concepts. For instance, Alexander Wendt (Theory Talk #3) has started this Journal International Theory. People are seriously looking at the bigger and deeper questions, so uniting more with political theorists for instance. This idea that we are coming up against real limits is a very frightening idea from the perspective of a certain idea of freedom rooted in liberal politics. We really need to rethink the meaning of freedom in an era of limits. My own feeling is that human beings are kind of hard-wired towards unlimitedness—but the world is now pressing us to interrogate this impulse. We don't do well with limits. But the fact of the matter is, we are not evolutionarily adapted to abundance, we don't even know what to do with abundance. We are squandering resources in the most absurd ways. So we really need to rethink what freedom is in a world of limits.



It's not all together a bad thing that we are facing these limits. Those of us who have at least the privilege of being well fed and reasonably comfortable, can actually turn our attention to this question of consciousness. Because this question of 'what is freedom' is a problem of human consciousness. Rather than turning our desire towards mastery—I think as human beings we have an innate desire towards mastery – rather than turning that desire onto the external world, we've pretty well mastered it; except turns out that we live in it so it's coming back to bite us and we are facing huge climate change most likely. When we shift the focus of this desire for mastery to our own psyches, then lots of things open up. And I don't think only people who live in industrialized countries need to do this or are doing this. One of the things I saw in my ecovillage book is that people living in developing countries are also quite aware of it and are doing it at the places they live as well. There is a global awakening, at least in small pockets, to the fact that we live within a limited Earth system and a serious inquiry into what it means to be a human being at this juncture between modernity and the Anthropocene.





Karen Litfin (Ph.D., University of California, Los Angeles, 1992) is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Washington. She specializes in global environmental politics, with core interests in green theory, the science/policy interface, and what she calls "person/planet politics." Her first book, Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in International Environmental Cooperation (Columbia University Press, 1994), looks at the discursive framing of science in the ozone treaties. Her second book, The Greening of Sovereignty in World Politics (MIT Press, 1998), explores how state sovereignty is being reconfigured as a consequence of global environmental politics. Some of the topics of her recently publications include: the politics of earth remote sensing; the political implications of Gaia Theory; the relationship between scientific and political authority in the climate change negotiations; the politics of sacrifice in an ecologically full world; and holistic thinking in the global ecovillage movement. 





Related links





Faculty profile at the University of Washington
Read Litfin's Thinking like a planet: Gaian politics and the transformation of the world food system (2011 book chapter) here (pdf)  
Read Litfin's Towards an Integral Perspective on World Politics: Secularism, Sovereignty and the Challenge of Global Ecoloy (Millennium, 2003) here (pdf) 
Read Litfin's The Status of the Statistical State: Satellites and the Diffusion of Epistemic Sovereignty (Global Society, 1999) here (pdf) 
Read Litfin's The Gendered Eye in the Sky: Feminist Perspectives on Earth Observation Satellites (Frontiers 1997) here (pdf) 








Print version of this Talk (pdf)

The increasing emissions from the transport sector have become a global concern as these emissions contribute to climate change. One way to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transport sector is to replace fossil fuels with biofuels. The diesel engine is important for transports in society, especially since it is more efficient and more powerful compared with the gasoline engine. Therefore, replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel is one feasible option for achieving short and long-term emission targets. Fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) and hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) are the two kinds of biodiesel being used in Sweden. The raw materials are vegetable and animal oils and fats and the production method is esterification for FAME and hydrotreatment for HVO. HVO is more similar to fossil diesel and higher blends can be used in existing diesel engines if the vehicle manufacturer has approved it whereas FAME requires vehicle modifications when used in higher blends. Both HVO and FAME can be used as drop-in fuel with fossil diesel, but only up to 7% for FAME according to regulations. The Swedish consumption of HVO has increased rapidly in recent years. In 2017 it was more than 20% of the total globally produced HVO that year. Furthermore, the dependence on imported raw materials is heavy. Only 3% of the raw materials for FAME and only 5% of the raw materials for HVO sold in Sweden were of Swedish origin in 2017. Since the feedstocks used for biodiesel production are of limited availability and have competing uses, it is important to increase the knowledge of local resources. The County of Gävleborg has many large forest-related industries. The actors at different levels of the supply chain have important roles in the challenges to reduce fossil fuel dependence. The overall aim of this report is to investigate the current status and future prospects of biodiesel feedstocks and production technologies for FAME and HVO from a regional perspective. This is achieved by two separate approaches. First, a literature review is done through which potential feedstocks and production processes are described. The feedstocks are categorized into different generations. Second, ongoing and upcoming activities related to biodiesel production in Gävleborg County are explored through interviews with regional actors. The interviewees are representatives from companies with activities in Gävleborg County: Setra, BillerudKorsnäs, Iggesund, Rottneros and Colabitoil. Raw materials belonging to the first generation compete with food production. For biodiesel these raw materials are different types of vegetable oils. The main ones worldwide are palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil. These raw materials can be used as feedstock for both FAME and HVO. In Sweden the agricultural activity is relatively low and even lower in Gävleborg County. The extensive use of land and competition with food production makes these type of raw materials for biodiesel production questionable. But arguments can be made that the vegetable oils have good traceability and this can lead to better control to ensure a sustainable biodiesel value chain. Second-generation raw materials are non-food based. There are a variety of different types. Some are already being used and some are potential biodiesel feedstocks for the future. The ones presented in this report are animal fats, fish oils, waste cooking oils (WCO), pyrolysis oil, lignin and crude tall oil (CTO). Animal fats and fish oils can also be considered first-generation raw materials since they might be edible. There are strict health regulations for human food and the fats and oils that do not live up to the regulations can be used for other purposes. Animal fats and fish oils can also be used as animal feed and production of different chemicals. It is not obvious which use is best, but generally it seems that biodiesel and other energy uses are regarded as the least valuable in comparison. An important issue to consider is that the availability of animal fats and fish oils depends on the demand for meat. WCO is a feedstock for biodiesel which is currently used by Colabitoil in their pilot plant for HVO. It seems that the profitability of using WCO is dependent on the production capacity of the WCO producers and the distance between them since these two factors affect the fuel consumption during collection. It is optimal to have one big WCO producer in order to minimize the collection costs. In theory, there could be a situation in which there are so many small producers that more fuel is required for collection than is gained in biodiesel production. Pyrolysis oil from biomass is an interesting future source for biodiesel. It is a heterogeneous mixture of compounds and contains a lot of oxygen. Pyrolysis oil is definitely a raw material that needs catalytic hydrotreatment for upgrading. It is therefore considered an HVO feedstock and not feasible for FAME. This study did not clarify how much pyrolysis oil will end up as diesel fuel and how much will end up as gasoline or other products. A pyrolysis plant for production of pyrolysis oil from sawdust might be built at Setra's sawmill Kastet in Gävle. The pyrolysis oil will then be used as a feedstock for diesel and gasoline fuels in Preem's refinery. Lignin is one of the main components of wood. In the production of pulp by the sulfate process lignin is separated from the pulp as a component in the black liquor. The lignin is then primarily burned for energy purposes in the recovery boiler. The three pulp mills within Gävleborg County all use the sulfate process. At the pulp mill owned by Rottneros in Vallvik a plant for extraction of lignin and a plant for conversion into a lignin oil might be built. This pulp mill has a surplus of energy and therefore a potential to extract some of the lignin. The lignin will be processed together with a bio-based carrier oil to the lignin oil. This lignin oil will then be used as a feedstock for gasoline and diesel fuel in Preem's refinery. It was not clarified in this study what the source of the bio-based carrier oil will be. Additionally, the composition of the lignin oil was not revealed and therefore it could not be determined what share of it can be used for biodiesel production. Lignin oil is very interesting as a feedstock due to the large amount of lignin that is available in the forests. However, the interviews with the two other pulp mills (i.e., Iggesund and BillerudKorsnäs) showed that the availability is limited by other factors. These two pulp mills are integrated with production of paper products and therefore they have no surplus of energy. If lignin is extracted the energy has to be replaced by other sources. An eventual extraction of lignin is associated with reconstruction of different parts of the plant and thereby large investment costs. CTO is a by-product from pulp mills that use the sulfate process. It is of limited availability and consists mainly of fatty acids and rosin acids. The fatty acids can be converted to biodiesel. One way to utilize the components of CTO is to fractionate it into different product streams through distillation. These product streams include one stream with fatty acids, one stream with rosin acids and one stream called pitch. The pitch can be seen as a residue. There are two main refineries to which the three pulp mills in Gävleborg County deliver their CTO: Sunpine in Piteå and Kraton in Sandarne. Sunpine produces tall oil diesel and other products from the CTO, and the tall oil diesel is used for HVO production by Preem. Kraton produces different chemicals from the CTO. For all three pulp mills an important factor is to get tall oil pitch back from Sunpine and Kraton to be used for energy purposes. A potential source of lipids for biodiesel production was mentioned in the interview with Colabitoil. This was the conversion of lignocellulosic material into lipids by microbes. A particularly suitable feedstock for the microbes would be waste fibers from pulp and paper industries. This still appears to be at the research stage, but it will be interesting to follow the development since it has promising opportunities if it can be achieved at a commercial scale. Third-generation feedstocks for biodiesel are oils obtained from microalgae. Microalgae are potentially superior to the other raw materials. Biodiesel from microalgae is not commercially available so it is up to the future to determine its destiny. Due to the cold climate of Gävleborg County it is questionable if it is a good place for large-scale cultivation of microalgae. The optimal feedstock for FAME are triglycerides. Therefore, first-generation raw materials are wanted. Catalytic hydrotreatment can handle more complex raw materials and the feedstock range can thereby be increased to second-generation feedstocks. There is no producer of FAME in Gävleborg County, but there is a company (Colabitoil) that distributes HVO produced by Neste. Colabitoil also has a pilot plant for HVO production and might build a large-scale production plant in the future. The activities in Norrsundet, which Colabitoil is part of, has a potential to provide synergy effects if different companies settle there. There can then be knowledge-sharing and utilization of different by-products between the companies. There are two aspects about the limitations of the report that should be mentioned. First, the environmental performance of the different raw materials and production technologies is not considered. This is an important issue since the main purpose of biofuels is to reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels. Second, it cannot be ruled out that there could have been intentional or unintentional bias in the interviews, even though there is no reason to suspect this. Additionally, it is very tricky to assess the certainty behind different statements from different persons since they have different backgrounds and different expectations about the future. Apart from this, the aim of the report was met to a large extent by shedding light on the future prospects of biodiesel through the challenges, uncertainties and success factors related to projects that the different actors described in the interviews. The challenges are technical and financial. The uncertainties are related to political stability but also to the environmental permit and future availability of raw materials. The success factors are the high demand for transport fuels and cooperation with other companies. ; De ökande utsläppen från transportsektorn har blivit en global angelägenhet, eftersom dessa utsläpp bidrar till klimatförändringen. Ett sätt att minska koldioxidutsläppen från transportsektorn är att ersätta fossila bränslen med biobränslen. Dieselmotorn är viktig för transporter i samhället, speciellt eftersom den är effektivare och mer kraftfull jämfört med bensinmotorn. Att ersätta fossil diesel med biodiesel är därför ett möjligt alternativ för att uppnå korta och långsiktiga utsläppsmål. Fettsyrametylestrar (FAME) och vätebehandlade vegetabiliska oljor (HVO) är de två typerna av biodiesel som används i Sverige. Råvarorna är vegetabiliska och animaliska oljor och fetter och produktionsmetoden är förestring för FAME och vätgasbehandling för HVO. Sammansättningen hos HVO är mer lik fossil diesel och högre inblandningsnivåer kan därmed användas i befintliga dieselmotorer om fordonstillverkaren har godkänt det. FAME däremot kräver modifiering hos dieselmotorsystemet vid användning i högre blandningar. Både HVO och FAME kan användas som drop-in bränsle med fossil diesel, men bara upp till 7 procent för FAME enligt föreskrifter. Den svenska konsumtionen av HVO har ökat snabbt de senaste åren. År 2017 var den över 20 procent av den totala globala produktionen det året. Det finns ett starkt beroende av importerade råvaror. Endast 3 procent av råvarorna för FAME och endast 5 procent av råvarorna för HVO som säljs i Sverige var av svenskt ursprung 2017. Eftersom råvarorna som används för biodieselproduktion har begränsad tillgänglighet och konkurrerande användningsområden är det viktigt att öka kunskapen om lokala resurser. Gävleborgs län har många stora skogsrelaterade industrier. Aktörerna på olika nivåer i försörjningskedjan har viktiga roller i utmaningen att minska beroendet av fossila bränslen. Det övergripande syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka nuvarande status och framtidsutsikterna för biodieselråvaror och produktionsteknologier för FAME och HVO ur ett regionalt perspektiv. Detta uppnås genom två separata tillvägagångssätt. För det första görs en litteraturöversikt där potentiella råvaror och produktionsprocesser beskrivs. Råvarorna kategoriseras i olika generationer. För det andra undersöks pågående och kommande aktiviteter relaterade till biodieselproduktionen i Gävleborgs län genom intervjuer med regionala aktörer. Intervjuerna är gjorda med representanter för företag med aktiviteter i Gävleborgs län: Setra, Billerud, Korsnäs, Iggesund, Rottneros och Colabitoil. Första generationens råvaror konkurrerar med livsmedelsproduktionen. För biodiesel är dessa råvaror olika typer av vegetabiliska oljor. De vanligast förekommande i världen är palmolja, sojabönsolja, rapsfröolja och solrosolja. Dessa råvaror kan användas till produktion av både FAME och HVO. I Sverige är jordbruksverksamheten relativt låg och i Gävleborgs län är den lägre än det Svenska genomsnittet. Den omfattande användningen av mark och konkurrensen med livsmedelsproduktionen gör att denna typ av råvaror för biodieselproduktion kan ifrågasättas. Men det kan argumenteras att vegetabiliska oljor har bra spårbarhet vilket kan leda till bättre kontroll för att säkerställa en hållbar biodieselvärdekedja. Andra generationens råvaror är icke-livsmedelsbaserade. Det finns en mängd olika typer. Vissa används redan och vissa är potentiella biodieselråvaror. De som presenteras i denna rapport är animaliska fetter, fiskoljor, spilloljor (WCO), pyrolysolja, lignin och råtallolja (CTO). Animaliska fetter och fiskoljor kan också betraktas som första generationens råmaterial eftersom de kan vara ätbara. Det finns höga hälsokrav för livsmedel och de fetter och oljor som inte uppfyller kraven kan användas för andra ändamål. Animaliska fetter och fiskoljor kan också användas som foder och produktion av olika kemikalier. Det är inte uppenbart vilken användning som är bäst, men i allmänhet verkar det som biodiesel och annan energianvändning anses vara den minst värdefulla. En viktig fråga att beakta är att tillgången på animaliska fetter och fiskoljor är beroende av efterfrågan på kött. WCO är ett råmaterial för biodiesel som för närvarande används av Colabitoil i deras pilotanläggning för HVO. Det verkar som om lönsamheten för att använda WCO är beroende av produktionskapaciteten hos WCO-producenterna och avståndet mellan dem, eftersom dessa två faktorer påverkar bränsleförbrukningen vid insamling. Det är optimalt att ha en stor WCO-producent för att minimera insamlingskostnaderna. Teoretiskt sett kan det uppstå en situation där producenterna är så små och så många att mer bränsle krävs för insamling än som uppnås i biodieselproduktionen. Pyrolysolja från biomassa är en intressant framtidskälla för biodiesel. Det är en heterogen blandning av föreningar och den innehåller mycket syre. Pyrolysolja är definitivt en råvara som behöver katalytisk vätgasbehandling för uppgradering. Den anses därför vara en råvara för HVO och inte för FAME. Denna studie klargör inte hur stor del av pyrolysoljan som kan omvandlas till dieselbränsle och hur mycket som kan omvandlas till bensin eller andra produkter. En pyrolysanläggning för produktion av pyrolysolja från sågspån kan komma att byggas vid Setras sågverk Kastet i Gävle. Pyrolysoljan kommer då att användas som råvara för diesel- och bensinbränsle i Preems raffinaderi. Lignin är en av huvudkomponenterna i trä. Vid framställning av massa genom sulfatprocessen separeras lignin från massan som en komponent i svartluten. Lignin bränns sedan i första hand för energianvändning i samband med återvinningen av kokningskemikalierna. De tre massafabrikerna i Gävleborgs län använder alla sulfatprocessen. Vid massabruket som ägs av Rottneros i Vallvik kan en anläggning för utvinning av lignin och en anläggning för omvandling till ligninolja komma att byggas. Denna massafabrik har ett överskott av energi och därmed en potential att extrahera en del av ligninet. Ligninet kommer att processas tillsammans med en biobaserad bärar-olja till ligninoljan. Denna ligninolja kommer då att användas vid produktion av bensin och dieselbränsle i Preems raffinaderi. Det framgår inte i denna studie vad källan till den biobaserade bäroljan kommer att vara. Dessutom avslöjas inte ligninoljans sammansättning och därför kan det inte fastställas hur stor del som kan användas för biodieselproduktion. Ligninolja är mycket intressant som råmaterial på grund av den stora mängd lignin som finns i skogen. Intervjuerna med de två andra massafabrikerna (dvs Iggesund och BillerudKorsnäs) visade emellertid att tillgängligheten är begränsad av andra faktorer. Dessa två massafabriker är integrerade med produktion av pappersprodukter och har därför inget överskott av energi. Om lignin extraheras måste energin ersättas med andra energikällor. En eventuell extraktion av lignin är förknippad med ombyggnad av olika delar av fabriken och därmed med stora investeringskostnader. CTO är en biprodukt från massafabriker som använder sulfatprocessen. Den är av begränsad tillgänglighet och består huvudsakligen av fettsyror och hartssyror. Fettsyrorna kan omvandlas till biodiesel. Ett sätt att utnyttja komponenterna i CTO är att fraktionera den till olika produktflöden genom destillation. Dessa produktflöden innefattar en ström med fettsyror, en ström med hartssyror och en ström som kallas beckolja, som kan ses som en restprodukt. Det finns två raffinaderier till vilka de tre massafabrikerna i Gävleborgs län levererar sin CTO: Sunpine i Piteå och Kraton i Sandarne. Sunpine producerar talloljediesel och andra produkter från CTO. Talloljediesel används för HVO-produktion av Preem. Kraton producerar olika kemikalier från CTO. För alla tre massabruken är det viktigt att få tillbaka beckolja från Sunpine och Kraton. En potentiell källa till lipider för biodieselproduktion nämns i intervjun med Colabitoil. Detta är omvandling av biomassa till lipider av mikrober. Ett särskilt lämpligt råmaterial för mikroberna skulle vara en typ av restprodukt från massa- och pappersindustrin som kallas fiberslam eller nollfiber. Intrycket är att detta fortfarande är i en forskningsfas, men det kommer att vara intressant att följa utvecklingen eftersom det finns lovande möjligheter om detta kan nå kommersiell skala. Tredje generationens råvaror för biodiesel är oljor erhållna från mikroalger. Mikroalger är potentiellt överlägsna de övriga råvarorna. Biodiesel från mikroalger är inte kommersiellt tillgänglig så framtiden avgör dess öde. På grund av det kalla klimatet i Gävleborgs län är det tveksamt om detta är ett bra ställe för storskalig odling av mikroalger. Den optimala råvaran för FAME är triglycerider. Därför är första generationens råvaror önskade. Katalytisk vätgasbehandling kan hantera mer komplexa råvaror och råvarubasen kan därmed ökas till andra generationens råvaror. Det finns ingen producent av FAME i Gävleborgs län, men det finns ett företag (Colabitoil) som distribuerar HVO producerat av Neste. Colabitoil har även en pilotanläggning för HVO-produktion och kan i framtiden komma att bygga en storskalig produkt-ionsanläggning. Verksamheten i Norrsundet, som Colabitoil ingår i, har potential att ge synergieffekter om olika företag etablerar sig där. Det kan då ge förutsättning för kunskapsdelning och utnyttjande av olika biprodukter mellan företagen. Det finns två aspekter kring rapportens begränsningar som bör nämnas. För det första beaktas inte miljöpåverkan från de olika råmaterialen och produktionsteknologierna. Detta är en viktig fråga eftersom biobränslenas huvudsakliga syfte är att minska miljöpåverkan jämfört med fossila bränslen. För det andra kan det inte uteslutas att intervjuerna kan vara avsiktligt eller oavsiktligt partiska, även om det inte finns anledning att misstänka detta. Dessutom är det väldigt svårt att bedöma säkerheten i uttalanden från olika personer eftersom de har olika bakgrund och olika förväntningar på framtiden. Bortsett från detta, uppnåddes i stor utsträckning målsättningen med rapporten att bedöma framtidsutsikterna för biodiesel genom belysning av utmaningar, osäkerhetsfaktorer och framgångsfaktorer relaterade till de projekt som de olika aktörerna beskrev i intervjuerna. Utmaningarna är tekniska och finansiella. Osäkerheten är relaterad till politisk stabilitet, men också till miljötillstånd och framtida råvarutillgång. Framgångsfaktorerna är den höga efterfrågan på drivmedel och samarbete mellan olika företag. ; Forskningsfinansiärer: Europeiska regionala utvecklingsfonden (ERUF), Region Gävleborg, Högskolan i Gävle

IntroducciónSe estima que durante el régimen militar comandado por el General Augusto Pinochet Ugarte (11 de septiembre de 1973-11 de marzo de 1990) alrededor de 200.000 chilenos se exiliaron en 110 países en los 5 continentes. De ellos, 35.000 accedieron al status de asilados políticos, principalmente a través de embajadas latinoamericanas y europeas. A su vez, cerca de 5000 fueron expulsados del país a través de mecanismos de una legalidad solo formal (por ejemplo, los decretos leyes 81 y 504, de noviembre de 1973 y abril de 1975, respectivamente)(1).El estudio del exilio y renovación de la izquierda chilena presupone una decisión metodológica importante: cómo delimitar qué es el exilio y qué definimos cómo renovación. Los exiliados se dividían en dos expresiones distintivas: los dirigentes y los militantes. Los primeros fueron los mas perseguidos, pero justamente por ello recibieron un trato mas urgente y privilegiado tanto por parte de las instituciones o embajadas que organizaban la salida como de los gobiernos y organismos que lidiaban con ellos en los países de destino. En cambio, los militantes rasos enfrentaron situaciones mucho mas caóticas y dramáticas. Por un lado, eran personalidades anónimas que no podían argüir contactos para una salida rápida. Por otro lado, en los lugares de destino no recibían ni la ayuda ni el reconocimiento suficiente, por lo que no solo se encontraban aislados humanamente sino (mas relevante para este trabajo) no pudieron desarrollar los nexos políticos y analíticos necesarios como para comenzar un proceso de autocrítica que, eventualmente, desencadenara en un proceso de renovación filosófica e ideológica.Por ende, nuestra unidad de análisis será principalmente el exiliado en tanto expresión de un dirigente político relevante o medianamente relevante hasta 1973, que posteriormente pudo insertarse en la vida política e intelectual de su lugar de destino y que, paso seguido, debió enfrentar el desafío de la vida política en un escenario mas complejo.A su vez, esta distinción (entre exiliados-dirigentes y exiliados-militantes) no solo ha generado tensiones humanas entre los dos grupos en épocas del destierro sino que ha provocado una tensión política tanto durante el proceso de transición como en los 20 años de gobierno de la coalición de centro-izquierda formada principalmente por socialistas, democristianos y radicales (Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia, 1990-2010). El no-dialogo (explícito y tácito, en el pasado y en el presente) entre estas dos expresiones del exilio es en si un programa de investigación todavía inexplorado. La actual crisis política que se vive hoy (septiembre de 2011) en Chile refleja una parte de esa tensión irresuelta.Así, marcamos que ha habido una distancia considerable entre el grado de renovación y moderación alcanzado por los exiliados-dirigentes versus los exiliados-militantes. Es decir, ambos procesos pueden servir como una herramienta analítica comparativa válida, en tanto la inmersión de los dirigentes-exiliados en el debate público los catapultó al cambio mientras el aislamiento de los exiliados-militantes generalmente consolidó a estos en sus antiguas creencias. Podemos citar las palabras del exiliado en Venezuela Guillermo Meza, un simpatizante de la Unidad Popular sin pertenencia partidaria: "The solidarity of the Venezuelans was impressive. Acción Democrática [Democratic Action, or AD], which was the party in power, gave a good deal of help to all Chileans. But, of course, to some more than others and, especially, to those linked with political parties. We who were from the independent left were obliged to fend for ourselves…. Another thing to point out about Caracas is that an elite of exile leaders developed -- an elite that received aid from international organizations, who had honorary positions in the Venezuelan government but who didn't work in the government, but rather concentrated on political work. Very linked to the AD Party and who sometimes lived in very luxuriant conditions. They received special treatment that was sometimes pretty shocking. There were others who did not receive this kind of protection, like Mario Palestro, a ex-Socialist deputy. He had some very hard times, did unpleasant work, especially for someone of his age. Also Carmen Lazo, another Socialist deputy who also had to work hard to survive. José Carrasco, a journalist, who worked very hard in solidarity with Chile and who had a very hard time, subsisted with the bare minimum. Mario Díaz, another journalist, was in the same situation and finally died due to a long illness. He had to go to Cuba where they took him for medical care that he could not afford in Venezuela because of his precarious economic situation. People who were very honest and very committed. And among these people, there were extraordinary foreigners who were more Chilean than many of our countrymen. This was the case of the Argentines Tomás Vasconi, Irene Decar, and Luis Vitale -- people who have dedicated their lives to writing and researching our country and who have an incredible amount of affection for our country. Well, they returned to Chile and live there now. Three intellectuals of very high caliber. …I returned to Chile in 1985 because they asked me to come back again…" (2)A su vez, el estudio del exilio chileno posee otros desafíos metodológicos importantes: en primer lugar, es un acontecimiento históricamente reciente. En segundo lugar, no comienza en un momento cronológico unívoco. Es decir, si bien la diáspora se inicia con el golpe de estado del 11 de septiembre de 1973, los perseguidos políticos continúan emigrando incluso en los inicios de los 80'. En tercer lugar, los destinos del exilio son diversos y antagónicos. Si bien los principales destinos son América latina (Argentina, Brasil, Costa Rica y, principalmente, Cuba, México y Venezuela) y Europa, es posible encontrar destinos de exilio tan disímiles como Australia, Canadá, Angola, Mozambique, EE.UU., Senegal, Egipto, entre otros. Así, encontramos exiliados en los 5 continentes. Rody Oñate y Thomas C. Wright sostienen que "One of the hallmarks of the Chilean exile experience is the worldwide dissemination of its protagonists. The geography of Chilean exile was such that no single continent, country, or area within a country could be identified as the primary exile destination -- in contrast with the case of Cubans and Miami. It is commonly estimated that Chileans settled in a minimum of 110 countries and possibly in as many as 140 (Oficina Nacional de Retorno (ONR), 1993). As with the number of political exiles, the exact number of host countries is impossible to establish. By the end of 1992, the ONR reported having processed nearly 8,700 heads of family from 63 host countries, including Burundi, Cyprus, Indonesia, Kuwait, and Iceland… Exiled Socialist leader Clodomiro Almeyda claimed that Chileans had taken residence in Kenya, Bangladesh, the Cape Verde Islands, and even Greenland. As a result of the diaspora, noted another exile, "There is no important city in the world where you will not find a Chilean, nor a city that is not familiar with empanadas [meat pies] and peñas [informal cafés with folk and protest music]." (3). Luego, hoy es imposible saber cuantas personas han formado parte del exilio.Por ende, es difícil definir con total rigurosidad qué ha sido el exilio chileno, qué magnitud real ha tenido y cómo puede interpretarse su papel en la posterior renovación de la izquierda chilena y la hija predilecta de ésta: la exitosa experiencia de la Concertación y sus 20 años en el poder. Introducir el papel del exilio supone así remarcar tanto que su rol ha sido relevante para entender la renovación como que esa relevancia será muy difícil de demarcar en su verdadero alcance. Como sostiene Alejandro San Francisco Reyes, citando al ex presidente socialista Ricardo Lagos Escobar: "El propio Lagos, en una larga entrevista, sostuvo que fueron decisivos los años de exilio y las reuniones políticas en Europa: 'Recuerdo-dice Lagos- que a comienzos de los ochenta, se hizo la primera reunión de la renovación socialista en Chantilly, una pequeña localidad cerca de París. Fue una experiencia notable. Eran unas 200 o 300 personas que venían de todas partes de Europa…Este es un capítulo no escrito de la historia cultural de nuestro país…"(4).El exilio chileno se divide principalmente entre exilio europeo y latinoamericano. El exilio europeo fue masivo y orgánico, principalmente en lo que respecta a las cúpulas de los partidos y organizaciones que habían sido participes de la experiencia de la Unidad Popular (en adelante, UP). En cambio, el exilio latinoamericano estuvo mayormente integrado por dirigentes y militantes jóvenes y de menor peso específico. Eso lo hizo mas inorgánico e irrelevante a la hora de influir en el proceso de renovación político e ideológico. Sin embargo, es necesario marcar el papel de la diáspora chilena en Venezuela y México. Allí se radicaron importantes teóricos de la renovación socialista, como por ejemplo Sergio Bitar (Venezuela) o Luis Maira (México). Mas aun, México fue testigo de una de las publicaciones editoriales mas articuladas del exilio: la revista "Convergencia". Si una medida de la capacidad de un lugar (físico y político) para influir en la renovación fuera la publicación sistemática de artículos relevantes, ciudad de México estaría en condiciones de competir casi en pie de igualdad con Roma, Rótterdam y Paris. Sin embargo, la opacidad de la propia experiencia política mexicana (influida por la poca o nula riqueza analítica que aportaba la hegemonía del PRI) conspiraría para hacer de México DF un espacio de referencia ineludible.(5)Por su parte, el exilio europeo tiene dos grandes corrientes que poseen sus sub-corrientes respectivas. Las dos grandes corrientes son 1) Europa Occidental y 2) el mundo socialista o Europa Oriental. A su vez, Europa Occidental puede dividirse en Europa continental, Escandinavia e Islas Británicas. El exilio en Escandinavia consiste principalmente de la masiva emigración a Suecia (6). Sostienen Oñate y Wright que "…While exile dispersed Chileans around the globe, between a third and a half of all Chileans forced out of their country spent most or all of their exile in Western Europe. Some of the Western European countries had been very supportive of the defeated side from the moment of the coup; the Italian, Swedish, and French governments opened their embassies for asylum and with others, including Belgium, Germany, and Holland, were especially generous in accepting refugees and providing moral and material aid. These countries commonly offered a range of programs and facilities to equip the exile for subsistence and employment: language courses, free or subsidized apartments, job training and placement, and sometimes counseling. These incentives, combined with Chileans' admiration of European culture and institutions and the clear advantages of settling in developed countries, made Western Europe a major exile destination" (7).En segundo lugar, el exilio en los países de la orbita socialista fue masivo y crucial en los primeros años posteriores al golpe. Una radiografía del exilio chileno detrás de la cortina de hierro supondría en si mismo un trabajo de investigación, tanto por su relevancia como por la inexistencia de trabajos que desarrollen una critica desapasionada sobre lo acontecido. Los principales ámbitos para los exiliados eran Moscú y Berlín Oriental. En Moscú residía la cúpula del Partido Comunista (PC) y en Berlín la cúpula del Partido Socialista (PS). A su vez, las organizaciones menores como el MAPU (Movimiento de Acción Política Unitario) y el MIR poseían oficinas en ambas capitales, aunque el presupuesto para ellas era mucho mas acotado. Por ejemplo, el MAPU poseía en Moscú un pequeño presupuesto financiado por el PCUS, que sin embargo le permitió al influyente Enrique Correa articular nexos y acuerdos con las distintas corrientes de la oposición tanto dentro como fuera de Chile.Publicaciones del exilioUna rigurosa recopilación bibliografía sobre el exilo chileno y sus manifestaciones culturales e ideológicas ha sido realizada por Estela Aguirre, Sonia Chamorro, Carmen Correa en "Exilio chileno, cultura y solidaridad internacional." (8).El papel de las publicaciones y desarrollos teóricos de los exiliados ha sido central en el proceso de renovación. Si bien es difícil conocer y comparar la producción bibliográfica de las distintas diásporas, la comunidad chilena exiliada estaría en condiciones de competir por el primer lugar en cantidad y calidad de producciones artísticas, literarias y científicas con otras diásporas en el siglo XX.Una primera aproximación a la producción bibliográfica de los chilenos en el exterior en el periodo 1974-1989 es la siguiente (9): América Joven, Amsterdam, Holanda (Juventud Socialista).Amérique Latine, París, Francia (24 números publicados hasta 1986).ANCHA, Agencia Chilena Antifacista (Berlin Oriental)- Aquí y Ahora, Suecia.- Araucaria de Chile, París y Madrid (1978 a 1989, números 1 a 47-48).- Araucaria "i Norge", Noruega (primer número 1980).- Boletín del Comité Exterior de la Central Única de Trabajadores, en Francia y RDA (138 números). - Boletín del Exterior, llamado Boletín Rojo, Moscú (Partido Comunista, entre1973 y 1989).- Boletín Internacional Informativo, trimestral.- Boletín Informativo Exterior, México (Mapu Obrero y Campesino, mitad de los 70).- Canto Libre, Colombes, Francia (1978).- Canto Libre, París, Francia (1965 a 1980).- Cañuela, Milán, Italia.-CAUSA ML (Publicado en Paris por el Partido Comunista Revolucionario)-Contacto (Hoja de carácter informativo editada por exiliados en Paris y ocasionalmente en Madrid. 1973-79)- Cuadernos del ESIN, Rótterdam, Holanda.- Chile Democrático, Italia.- Chile Informativo. Boletín, Cuba y México (década de los 70).- Chile-América, Roma, Italia (1974 a 1983).- Convergencia, México (Convergencia Socialista).- Cuadernos, Ottawa, Canadá.- Cuadernos. Monografías, México.- Cuadernos de Orientación Socialista, Berlín Oriental, Alemania (Partido Socialista de Chile, mediados de los 80).- Don Reca, Frankfurt, Alemania, RFA. (Los comunistas en la República Federal Alemana publican la revista durante más de diez años, con dos ediciones mensuales).- El Barco de Papel, París, Francia (Izquierda Cristiana, años 80).- El Canillita (Creación de la Asociación de chilenos exiliados en Ginebra, Suiza. La publicación continua editándose en la actualidad y, según sus responsables, va camino a convertirse en la publicación decana de las realizadas en el exilio. A su vez, en los años 80 existió una publicación en Ginebra, en el barrio Les Avanchets, que se llamaba "El Pelambre").- El Séptimo Sueño, México, 1982.- Fuego Negro, Francia. (una pre-cuela de esta publicación puede verse enhttp://www.sitiosculturales.cl/archivos2/pdfs/MC0005660.pdf. Este primer numero se edita en la ciudad obrera de Concepción-Chile, en junio de 1973)- Hombre y Cultura, Unidad, Compañero, en diversas ciudades de Canadá. - Informativo de Casa de Chile, México (años 80). - Izquierda Cristiana, México. Dirigida por Luis Maira (primer numero, 1981)- Lar, Madrid, España, 1983 (continuación de Literatura Chilena en el Exilio y Literatura chilena. Creación y Crítica).- La Pomada, París, Francia.- La Papa, Estrasburgo, Francia.- Límite Sur, México (Partido Socialista y Socialdemócrata Latinoamericano).- Literatura Chilena en el Exilio (a partir del número 15 se llamó "Literatura chilena. Creación y Crítica". Publicada primero en California y luego en Madrid (1977 a 1989)).- Noticias de Chile, México (236 números entre 1973 y 1990).- Nueva Historia, Gran Bretaña (1981 a 1989).- Nueva Voz, Estocolmo, Suecia.- Pacaypaya, Inglaterra. - Palimpsesto, Italia. - Pensamiento Socialista (Análisis. Estudio. Teoría), República Federal Alemana.- Socialismo Chileno, Bruselas, Bélgica.- Plural, en Rotterdam, Holanda (1983).- Retorno, Costa Rica. - Selso, Luxemburgo. - Taller Literario, Oslo, Noruega.- Trilce, en Rumania y España (1982-.) y convertida después en revista LAR- UP informa, Dinamarca. - Ventanal, Revista de Creación y Crítica, Francia. Publicación originada por exiliados chilenos que participaban como estudiantes y profesores en la Universidad de Persignan (Francia). La revista era dirigida por Pablo Berchenko - Verso, Francia. - Resistencia chilena (pueden leerse algunos números en el Fondo Documental Eugenio Ruiz-Tagle) )10)(1) En la delicada tarea de ayudar a miles de personas a salir del país, por medio legales o ilegales, ha sido central el papel jugado por organizaciones nacionales e internacionales, seculares y religiosas, como el Comité Pro Paz (que había sido formado por el Obispo católico Fernando Ariztía y por el Obispo luterano Helmut Frenz, con el apoyo del World Council of Churches. El comité Pro Paz fue remplazado en 1975 por dos organizaciones: Vicaría de la Solidaridad y la Fundación de Ayuda Social de las Iglesias Cristianas, FASIC). A su vez, algunas de las organizaciones internacionales principales fueron: el Comité Intergubernamental para las Migraciones Europeas (CIME) u Organización Internacional para las Migraciones (OIM), la Cruz Roja Internacional, el Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados (UNHCR, por sus siglas en ingles) y la World University Service (WUS, proveyendo becas para estudios en el exterior), entre otras.(2) Rody Oñate y Thomas C. Wright (1998): "Flight from Chile- Voices of Exile". University of New Mexico Press. Página 102 y 103.(3) En "Flight from Chile- Voices of Exile". Rody Oñate y Thomas C. Wright University of New Mexico Press. Albuquerque. 1998. Capitulo 5:. "The Diaspora. Exile on Four Continents". Pagina 91.(4) San Francisco Reyes, Alejandro (2002): "Chile y el fin de la historia", en Bicentenario, revista de Historia de Chile y América. Volumen 1, numero 1. pagina 39(5) La misma lógica sirve para entender la declinante influencia de Berlín Oriental y Moscú como referencias analíticas y políticas de la renovación: mientras el debate político e ideológico consistió en como renovar a la UP para retomar el poder, los países de la orbita socialista fueron ámbitos de desarrollos teóricos importantes, pero cuando la discusión empezó a girar en torno a la necesidad de articular una renovación del socialismo, los teóricos de la renovación debieron volver a emigrar, esta vez a Europa occidental. Obviamente Cuba fue un ineludible destino de parte del exilio chileno. La Revolución Cubana había sido un actor relevante durante los años de la presidencia de Salvador Allende. Fidel Castro tuvo particular simpatía por el MIR (Movimiento Izquierda Revolucionario) y por su legendario líder, Miguel Enriquez, carismático y brillante joven salido de la combativa Universidad de Concepción. Así, la cúpula del MIR se instalaría en La Habana. El ambiguo papel jugado por Castro y la revolución cubana en el inédito proyecto revolucionario chileno es descripto por el periodista y diplomático Jose Sanchez Elizondo en "Crisis y renovación de la izquierdas: de la revolución cubana a Chiapas, pasando por el 'caso chileno'" (Edtitorial Andres Bello. Santiago de Chile.1995). La diáspora chilena en Cuba no solo no pudo ni quiso articular una crítica a la experiencia de la UP, sino tampoco intentó innovar en relación a la versión oficial castrista sobre el fracaso de la UP, en tanto verificación de la imposibilidad de la vía pacifica al socialismo. El escritor Roberto Ampuero ha vivido esa época y la ha relatado magistralmente en su ya clásica novela: "Nuestros años verde olivo" (Editorial Planeta. Santiago de Chile. 2004)(6) El exilio en Suecia ha sido el mas numeroso. Allí se asientan 30.000 chilenos. La razón principal de ello ha sido la generosa política inmigratoria de esta nación. En relación a ello, ver "Tan lejos y tan cerca, historia del exilio chilena en suecia". Por su parte, un clásico libro que estudia la vida de los chilenos en el exilio se desarrolla en Edimburgo, Escocia. Kay, Diana (1997): "Chileans in Exiles: Private struggles, Public lives"(7) Rody Oñate y Thomas C. Wright, obra citada. Capitulo 5:. "The Diaspora. Exile on Four Continents". Pagina 122(8) El trabajo se encuentra íntegramente en: http://chile.exilio.free.fr/chap03g.htm. La introducción sostiene que "La bibliografía abarca parte de la producción literaria, científica y técnica publicada en libros, así como tesis de grado. No recopila documentos, revistas ni artículos de prensa. Tampoco cataloga las reediciones de libros publicados con anterioridad a septiembre de 1973, pese a la cantidad de ellas como consecuencia de la conmoción que produjo en el extranjero el golpe militar de 1973 y el interés que despertó Chile. Cataloga también obras de teatro y guiones radiales, considerando que una obra representada o transmitida equivale a un libro publicado. Consta de 1.068 entradas de libros publicados en 37 países de diversos continentes."(9) La información ha sido recabada principalmente de http://chile.exilio.free.fr, secundariamente del Fondo Digital Eugenio Ruiz Tagle de FLACSO-Chile (http://www.flacso.cl/flacso/index.php) y del CIDOC (Centro de Investigación y Documentación en Historia de Chile Contemporáneo, http://www.finisterrae.cl/cidoc/index.php) de la Universidad Finis Térrae. El autor desea agradecer la muy generosa ayuda de Francisco Bulnes Serrano, Director del CIDOC.(10) A su vez, en http://www.salvador-allende.cl/prensa/prensa.htm podemos ver las portadas de algunas de las mencionadas revistas socialistas del exilio. Por ejemplo, Boletín informativo del Partido Socialista de chile, Orientación, Plural, Unidad y Lucha, Pensamiento Socialista, Cuadernos de Orientación Socialista, Convergencia y Rumbo. *Profesor Depto. Estudios Internacionales, FACS - Universidad ORT Uruguay.Master en Filosofía Política, London School of Economics and Political Science.

This paper proposes a framework for software system design. The framework is based on the decomposition and abstraction. The design formalism will employ an Object Descriptive Attributed Notation (ODAN) for software design representation which records three types of primary information of software system detail design: the decomposition hierarchy (of the system being designed), the taxonomic structure (recognizing the construction and function similarities), and the coupling specification (specifying the way of component integration). A message switching simulation system will be taken as an example during the discussion. An Ada program based on this design is also presented. ; Technical Report 2018-07-ECE-017 Technical Report 88-CSE-11 The Design of a Message Switching System: Software Reusability Applied to Discrete Event Simulation W. P. Yin Murat M. Tanik This technical report is a reissue of a technical report issued February 1988 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Alabama at Birmingham July 2018 Technical Report 88-CSE-11 THE DESIGN OF A MESSAGE SWITCHING SYSTEM: SOFTWARE REUSABILITY APPLIED TO DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION W. P. Yin M. M. Tanik Department of Computer Science and Engineering Southern Methodist University Dallas, Texas 75275-0122 February 1988 The Design of a Message Switching System: Software Reusability Applied to Discrete Event Simulation W.P.Yin M. M. Tanik Department of Computer Science SMU Abstract - This paper proposes a framework for software system design. The framework is based on the decomposition and abstraction. The design formalism will employ an Object Descriptive Attributed Notation (ODAN) for software design representation which records three types of primary information of software system detail design : the decomposition hierarchy (of the system being designed), the taxonomic structure (recognizing the construction and function similarities), and the coupling specification (specifying the way of component integration) . A message switching simulation system will be taken as an example during the discussion . An Ada program based on this design is also presented. I. INTRODUCTION Recent years, software engineers gradually realize that reuse concepts play a key role in several issues [1] : productivity, maintainability, portability, quality, and standards. A carefully engineered collection of re t:·sa.ble software components can reduce the cost of software development, improve the quality of software products, and accelerate software production [2] . Many approaches have been proposed and implemented which have tried to make the reuse of software components a reality. Among them , subroutine libraries, software generators and object-oriented programming have achieved relative popularity [3, 9]. The technical foundations for making software reuse a viable alternative to program development have been identified and demonstrated by several projects [4, 11] . In this paper a software detail design methodology and a design representation system (ODAN) [10] is presented. One specific example, a message switching communication system, is developed using this methodology and representation. A message switching communication system was chosen as the application because it shows the range of ODAN's applicabilities and presents a number of interesting design problems. Ada was chosen as the implementation language because it is capable for dedicated concurrent programming, provides much needed facilities for synchronization, and appears to be good at supporting software reusability. The specific design technique used here is described in Section II. The communication system itself is then developed in Section III through V. Section III specifies the functional requirements of the system. Section IV summarizes the major features of ODAN and presents the system decomposition, abstraction, and integration in terms of ODAN. Section V refines the decomposition by giving outlines of Ada programs for some of the interesting - II - parts of the system. Finally, Section VI summaries the conclusion of our explorative work. II. DESIGN TECHNIQUE The process of design is a transformation of a designer's ideas and expertise in to a concrete implementation [ 5]. Observing the design process, we can see the following facts: • Software design is a creative act of individuals using basic problem-solving techniques, building conceptual solutions based upon a software system specification . • By providing decomposition and abstraction mechanisms, a large-scale, complex problem will become an aggregation of subproblems. The solution for original problem will be the • combination of the solutions for subproblems. The design representation is a knowledge representation that facilitates expressing the system decomposition hierarchy, the similarities of system components presented, and the coupling constraints on which system components are identified in the decomposition hierarchy. The design described here is developed in two major steps: system decomposition and component abstraction. By iterating between decomposition and abstraction , three kinds of information are derived: decomposition, taxonomy and integration. By decomposition we mean that dividing the original problem into smaller models that are themselves small problems and interact with one another in simple, well-defined ways [6]. By abstraction we mean the change in the level of detail to be considered in which certain details are ignored in an effort to convert the original problem to a simpler one. In our design technique, we use a decomposition form which gives software system designers opportunity to concentrate on the behavior of the entities of the application and the relationships among them. Therefore, a designer is to be working at the level of general construction and functionality description, but not to the degree of precision necessary for executability. The design process can be characterized as [ 5] :"The design procedure is a series of successive refinements comprising two types of design activities. The first type concerns the transitions between the so-called design levels. The second type defines a set design actions associated with a given design level. The design levels are successive refinements of the decomposition of the system under consideration." At the beginning of a software system design , designers decompose the original problem into subproblems based upon a behavioral scenario. Each subproblem corresponds to one object in the problem, in which changing the state of one object will affect the state of other objects. Decomposition continues until the subproblems are not further decomposable, i.e., any state changing on that object will not have effect on any other objects. During the decomposition, each object in the problem space will be designed as an entity in the solution space. Entities in solution space will be represented in computers. For each solution entity, three kinds of information are derived. First, the decomposition hierarchy (of the system) is declared. The decomposition hierarchy is the composition schema for the object. Composition schema contains data items which indicate the object states and operations which manipulate the data items. Second, the taxonomic - III - knowledge is specified. This knowledge can be viewed as a representation for inheritance relar tions which declare the reusability information, i.e., one entity in solution space can inherit some facilities designed in another entity. Inherited facilities include data items, operations or a whole entity. One entity can have multiple inheritance. These taxonomic knowledge will be used during further evolutionary stages in making reusable code segments. Third, the integration rules are specified. The primary goal for decomposition of the original problem is to divide-and-conquer. The partial solutions of subproblems must be coupled together to solve the original problem. The integration rules specify the data flow and control flow among the entities, input and output constraints, and an activating algorithm . ODAN [10] is used for design representation. For each entity in the solution space a set of attributes is attached. Attributes are classified into three groups corresponding to the above three kinds of information. The values for attributes are designer-defined, e.g., the value can be a single word, a sentence, a piece of code, a rule, an abstract algorithm, or a link to another entity based on the attribute meaning. We choose ODAN as our design representation because it gives software designers flexibility to add or erase attributes, or assign a specific value to the attribute. In addition , ODAN is easy to be machine representable and computable. This benefit will help software engineers to store and retrieve the previous design . III. SPECIFICATION OF A MESSAGE SWITCHING SYSTEM A typical message switching system [7] has been chosr'n as an example to show the detail of our design technique because it is a problem that is realistic in nature and implements many of concepts of embedded systems. This generalized system is typical of several communication systems used by the U.S. government and NATO. The complete system consists of a network of switching nodes connected via high-speed trunk lines. Each switching node has an auxiliary memory, an archive facility, an operator, and can support up to fifty subscriber terminals. Figure 1 shows configuration for a given node in the system . The general function of each node is to accept input messages from the trunk or local subscriber lines, and route them to one or more output destinations. Input can be received from local subscribers or from another switching node (via the trunk line). The input message is stored in the auxiliary memory and then forwarded to the output destinations, which can be either local subscribers or another node in the network. Since messages must be completely received before forwarded, this type of communication is often called store-andforward message switching. Three successive phases are required to process each message: input, switching, and output. Figure 2 presents the system components and interfaces required to perform these functions. The following summary describes the processing that must be done during each of these phases. Input Figure 1. Typical node configuration • • Oper-ator- Read the input message from a subscriber or trunk link and store the message on both auxiliary memory and archive tapes. Each input message consists of a header, a body and an end (end-of-message indicator). Switch Examine the header to determine the output destinations. For each destination , consult a directory to determine the appropriate output line to use (local subscriber or trunk to remote destination). Add a copy of the message header to the output queue on each line . Output Retrieve the message from the auxiliary memory and display it. Each message contains a priority-at all times. The message with the highest priority is transmitted first. Each node has an operator who can send and retrieve messages like a subscriber. In addition, he can monitor and control the message activity at the node; for example, he can cancel a message or check the messages in each output queue. Also the operator is notified of exceptions-for example, end of archive tape. The simulation of this system addresses the following requirements. Figure 2. Message switch system components • Maximum I/ 0 parallelism must be provided. • Two different types of I/0 devices exist (trunks and terminals) . Both process messages. • Switch must coordinate output to multiple destinations. • Messages have priorities. • The auxiliary memory and terminal devices must be controlled and synchronized because we are simulating more than one l/0 device . We now turn our attention to the design of a message switching simulation system that solves each of these problems. V. DETAIL SYS'IEM DESIGN IN 0DAN The main activity of software design is not only generating new programs but also maintaining, integrating, modifying, and explaining existing ones [8]. Based upon the problem modelling and system specification, designers know what the message switching system should look like and how it should behave. Iterating between decomposition and abstraction, designers will know how the system is divided, what are the functionalities for each component, and how those components will be integrated together. Our objective for using ODAN to represent the design idea is for keeping the reusability in mind before and during the coding not after the coding. -VIA. System Decomposition Acceding to Grady Booch [2] : " Simply stated, object-oriented development is an approach to software design and implementation in which the decomposition of a system is based upon the concept of an object. An object is an entity whose behavior is characterized by the operations that it suffers and it requires of other objects". Using object-oriented design methodology, an object existing in the model of reality will have a corresponding structureentity in the solution. As specified above, each message processed by a switching node goes through three phases: input, switch, and output. In the problem space, there are several different objects participate these three phases, I/ 0 devices for sending and reading messages, a temporary memory for storing messages, a long term memory for message backup, a reference table for destination list, and a switching node for scheduling message transmission. The decomposition is shown in Figure 2. Each I/ 0 device manages one subscriber or trunk line . The auxiliary memory provides a temporary storage. The archive tape provides a tape storage for recording all message transmission . The table provides the destination cross-reference. The switch coordinates the output to multiple destinations. Using ODAN, we can describe the system decomposition in the following way. Message_8witching_8ystem Components: (Aux.:Mem , Archive_Tape, Reference_Table, Subscribers, Trunks, Switch , Operator) Interface: ~Operator Aux_Mem Components: ( Storage_Cell, directory_Cell) Access_Constrain t: mutual exclusive Operations: (Write, Read, Write_Directory, Read_Directory) Archive_Tape Components: (Tape) Access_Constrain t: mutual exclusive Operations: (Arch ive.:Msg, Re trieve_Msg) Reference_Table Components: (Table) Operations: (Look_Up, Insert, Delete) Trunk Components: (Msg_Queue) Access_Constrain t: mutual exclusive Operations: (Broad cast_Msg) Subscriber Components: (Msg_Queue) Access_Constrain t: mutual exclusive Operations: -VII- (Add, Delete, ls_Empty, Read_Terminal, Write_Terminal) Switch Components: (Msg_Queue) Access_Constrain t: mutual exclusive Operations: (Add, Delete, ls_Empty) For abstraction reasons, we ignore some details here. Actually, for each component and operation, ODAN provides a set of attributes. For example, in Aux_Mem entity, the system designer may specify the structure for Storage_Cell and Directory_Cell, algorithm skeleton for each operation, and exceptions for the operations. The algorithm skeleton may take an existing program code as its body, or a set of rules, or a PDL like specifications. We take an Ada like specification as the algorithm body. B. Similarity Recognition As we mentioned before, our goal is to make design information not only used to develop a new program, but also provide reusable designs. During the system design stage, based upon the object-oriented decomposition and construction as well as function specification on those objects, designers have an opportunity to recognize the construction - VIII - and function similarities among those objects. In ODAN, we introduce knowledge representation into software design. More specificly, we take inheritance relations in semantic nets and modify the semantics of those relations to represent the construction or function similarities. For example, the components of two entities, Reference_Table and Archive_Tape, have a functional similarity. Reference uses a "table" to save all the destination information, Archive_Tape uses a "tape" to backup all the messages. Ignoring the structures of destination and message information, functions for a table and tape can be the same, sequential data structure and no priority. In our design, we use a non-priority queue to implement the reference table and archive tape. The design representation is as follows. Non_Friority_Qu eue Components: ( Queue_En try) Operations: (Clear, Is_Empty, Add, Position_Of, Remove, En try_Of) Archive_ Tape Components: (Tape) instance of Non_Friority_Queue • • • Reference_Table Components: (Table) insta.nce of Non_Friority_Queue • • • Here we modified the semantics of instance of relation because the component for reference table is an instance of a non-priority queue, the non-priority queue will be biding inside the reference table. The manipulations on the table will be specified by reference table operations. In the same way, message queues are designed as follows: Priority_Queue Components: ( Queue_Entry) Operations: (Clear, Is_Empty, Add, Delete) I f Trunk Components: -IX- (Msg_Queue) instance of Priority_Queue • • • Subscriber Components: (Msg_Queue) instance of Priority_Queue • • • Switch Components: (Msg_Queue) instance of Priority_Queue • • • C. Component Integration Entities of a software system are not isolated. They are related with each other to do a specific task. One important information in the software design is the coupling specification, (how those entities coordinate). In ODAN we use the "interface" attribute, to indicate the relation information and coupling specification. The operations provide static default interface if no explicit interface specified. In the message switching system, we specify the interface for auxiliary memory, switch, and subscriber in the following way. Aux_MemJnterface time_rule: concurrent con trol_ru le : iterative im port_ru le: single body: (loop select ac ce pt Read_Msg or acce pt Wri te_Msg end select end loop) SwitchJnterface time_rule: concurrent controLrule: iterative body: (loop if not Is_Empty(Msg_Queue) -- Delete(Msg_Header) -- Look_Up(Msg_Header) - X - -- Add( Su bscriber_Msg_Queue) end if end loop) Su bscriberJn terface time_rule: concurrent control_rule: iterative body: (loop while not Is_Empty(Msg_Queue) -- Delete(Msg_Header) -- Aux_Mem.Read_Msg(Msg) -- Display(Msg) end loop -- Read_Terminal(Msg) -- Aux_Mem.Write_Msg(Msg) -- Archive_Tape.Archive_Msg(Msg) -- Add(Switch_Msg_Queue) end loop) -XIXI. DESIGN IMPLEMENTATION We choose Ada as the implementation language. Ada is a general-purpose language that embodies and enforces the modern software engineering principles of abstraction , information hiding, modularity, and locality. Ada offers a number of features that facilities the expression of reusable software components and real-time systems. For example, generic program units are parameterized templates for generating software components; tasks operates in parallel with other program units and imply the mutual exclusion; systematic separation between visible syntactic interface specifications and hidden bodies allow the programmer to separate concerns of module interconnections from concerns about how the module performs its task. Ada is used here as an implementation language for message switching system also because it is available in our VAX 11 / 780 under Unix operating system. Some specific algorithm designs can be written in Ada, and taken as the value of some ODAN attributes. Those algorithms written in Ada serves as intermediate steps between system detail design and coding. Since our goal is also to show how to make a reusable software component during the design stage, we will not show the complete detail of program code . The executable code runs on VAX 11 / 780 under Unix operating system . A. Message Queue As we mentioned before in system decomposition section, we decided to design a priority queue to implement the message queue for subscribers, trunks and switches. Ada's generic package provides a powerful too!· &.t this point. Generic packages have the ability to create templates of program units with generic parameters needed at translation time . The specification of generic priority queue package is as follows. genenc type QUEUE_ENTRY is private; type PRIORITY is limited private; with function PRIORITY_OF(THE_ENTRY : in QUEUE_EN1RY) return PRIORITY; with function " SIGNAL, PRIORITY => PRIORITY_TYPE, PRIORITY _OF=> CHEOK_PRIORITY, " " PORT2, PORT_QUEUE = > QUEUE_?KG .SUBSCRIBERl_QUEUE, -XIVPORT_ QUEUE_8EMAPHOR => TABLEYKG.SUBSCRIBERLQUEUE_8EMAPHOR, GETJIEADER => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.GETJIEADER_VTlOO, GET_BLOCK => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.GET_BLOCK_VTlOO, PUTJIEADER => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.PUTJIEADER_VTlOO, PUT_BLOCK => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.PUT_BLOCK_VTlOO) ; package TRUNK is new NOD EYKG (PORT =>PORTS, PORT_QUEUE => QUEUEYKG.TRUNK_QUEUE, PORT_QUEUE_8EMAPHOR => TABLEYKG.TRUNK_QUEUE_8EMAPHOR, GETJIEADER => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.GETJIEADER_TRUNK, GET_BLOCK => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.GET_BLOCK_TRUNK, PUTJIEADER => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.PUTJIEADER_TRUNK, PUT_BLOCK => DEVICE_DRIVERSYKG.PUT_BLOCK_TRUNK); C. Simulation Control Message switching system is a multiple processing system, but we simulate this multiple I/0 device activities on a single 1/0 device - one terminal. Thus, it is necessary to synchronize the access to the terminal. This synchronization is implemented by an Ada task. The semantics of Ada tasks guarantee the mutual exclusion . Only one task can access the terminal at a time, and if more than one task try to access at the same time, the remaining ones except one have to wait in an implicit queue so as not to interfere with each other. If those tasks arrive at different times, the first task will be permitted accessing first, the remaining ones are put in the queue based upon a time stamp. The task for synchronizing the terminal access is as follows: task I0_8YNC is entry REQUESTJO_DEVICE; entry RELEASEJOJ)EVICE; end I0_8YNC; task body 10_8YNC is BUSY: BOOLEAN:= false; begin loop select when not BUSY=> accept REQUESTJOJ)EVICE do BUSY :=true; end REQUESTJOJ)EVICE; or accept RELEASE_IO_DEVICE do BUSY :=false; end RELEASE_IO_DEVICE; end select; end loop; end IO_SYNC; -XVXV. CONCLUSION Current approaches for software reusability are primarily based on code sharing and subroutine libraries . Ada's generic units provide additional reusability techniques. We believe that if we can find ways to express reusable software components at a higher level than at the programming code level, software reusability will significantly improve the software productivity. The message switching system design is our explorative work on software reusability. 'Ne feel that it is necessary to develop a software design representation . Such a representation must not bind the implementation too early and must capture the logic of system functions. The programming environment support is also important for applying software reusability more effectively. REFERENCES [1] P . G. Bassett, " Framed-Based Software Engineering," IEEE Software, July, 1987. [2] G. Booch, Software Components With Ada, The Benjamin/ Cummings, Publishing Company Inc., 1987. [3] G. E. Kaiser and D. Garlan, " Melding Software Systems from Reusable Building Blocks," IEEE Software, July, 1987 . [ 4] W. Tracz , " Reusability Comes of Age," IEEE Software ", July, 1987. [5] J. W. Rozenblit and B. P. Zeigler, "Concept For Knowledge-Based System Design Environment," Proc. of the 1985 Winter Simulation Conference, San Francisco, Dec.1985. [ 6] B. Liskov and J. Guttag, Abstraction and Specification in Program development, The MIT Press, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1986. [7] G. R. Andrew, "The design of a Message Switching System : An Application and Evaluar tion of Modula," IEEE Trans. Software Eng., Vol.SE-5, No.2, Mar.1979. [8] G. Fischer, "Cognitive View of Reuse and Redesign," IEEE Software, July, 1987. [9] W. P. Yin, M. M. Tanik, D. Y. Y. Yun, T. J. Lee and A. G. Dale, "Software Reusability: A Survey and A Reusability Experiment", Proc. of FJCC, Dallas, Oct. 1987. [10] W. P. Yin , M . M. Tanik, and D . Y. Y. Yun "Software Design Representation : Object Descriptive Attributed Notation (ODAN), " (Available from authors). [11] R. T. Yeh and T. A. Welch , "Software Evolution: Forging a Paradigm," Proc. of FJCC, Dallas, Oct. 1987.

[eng] Innovative tools have been applied in this research work, such as Advanced Radar Interferometry techniques and rockfall simulation software in order to analyse the dangers of landslides in the Tratamuntana Range of the Island of Mallorca. The precise application of both techniques have good baseline data such as: the detailed inventory of ground movements, knowledge of the determination factors of instabilities (geology, geomorphology, material resistance, slopes etc.), the analysis of triggering factors (precipitation, temperature, sea and torrential erosion) and other parameters relating to the impact caused by these natural hazards, such as damage to homes and infrastructure, and economic losses concerning both direct and indirect costs generating from this. From previous work focusing on the landslides in the Tratamuntana Range (Mateos, 2001), relating to the data provided by the Department of Highways Mallorca Island Council and Emergency Department of the Balearic Government, together with the field work and aerial photography analysis conducted for their project, 934 landslides have been logged and characterized in the eighteenth century. This inventory includes the following types: rockfalls, landslides (rock and soil), flow, lateral spreading and nature karstic collapse. The points logged in GIS have enabled the study of distribution along the mountains and a detailed analysis of factors affecting movements has been carried out. This has shown that 65,5% of the movements in the mountains correspond to rockfalls and 25% due to landslides. 54% of inventoried events are located in the coastal strip of this mountain range. The rockfalls mainly take place (52% of cases) with hard materials 'Lias' (mainly limestone and dolomitic breccias) associated with the main escarpments of the range, and especially the fronts of thrust that make up the geological structure of the Tramuntana. Landslides in soil mainly affect the soft Keuper sediments (clays and gypsum) and the Quaternary colluvial deposits, which are mainly concentrated in the southwestern half of the Range. The cold and rainy period in 2008-2010 triggered an unusual number of landslides (14 rockfalls 1 rock avalanche, 15 landslides and 4 karstic collapses) has allowed a detailed analysis of the triggering factors to be carried out . Thus, rockfalls occurred after the occurrence of heavy rain, with values above 90 mm / 24h or saturated rock mass (accumulated rainfall> 800 mm / 3 months) with several cycles of freeze-thaw on previous days. Soil landslides occurred after heavy rainfall, moderate to extreme, and high levels of accumulated rainfall (> 850 mm / 3 months). Undoubtedly, one of the main engines of the process is the intense gravitational dynamic coastline of the northern coast, as reflected in the high distribution movements registered along the coastal strip. The collaboration of different social agents of the island (municipalities, departments of local and regional administration etc.,) has allowed the assessment of economic losses caused by landslides during that period 2008-2010, which affected many homes and infrastructure, and especially the road network of the range. The economic losses(direct and indirect) during that period amounted to 11 M €, which represents 0.042% of the Balearic islands GDP. The spatial distribution of damage shows that the southwest sector of the Range is the one that has endured greater economic losses, especially the municipalities of Andratx (losses of € 2,072,457) and the municipality of Calvià (€ 1.7 million). Advanced Radar Interferometry techniques (DInSAR) have been applied in order to detect hotspot ground deformations. To this end, many processed radar images have been obtained by several satellites: ALOS, ENVISAT, ERS, COSMO SKY- MED, covering a temporal space of 20 years (1992- 2012). The set of images were selected corresponding to PALSAR ALOS satellite sensor (14/17 images with an interval in the sequence of 46 days), as its L-band allows for greater density of points in adverse areas, and also its temporary coverage covers the humid period 2008-2010. The processing method used has been Advanced Differential Interferometric processing technique Persistent Scattering (PSI) developed by Arnaud et al. (2003); Hard et al. (2005). In order to correct geometric distortion generated by the mode of acquisition of satellite data, it has projected the estimated deformation in the line of sight of the satellite (VLOS) along the steepest slope (VSLOPE ). Deformation thresholds established in the study area have been: ± 3 mm / year for VLOS deformation speed, and - 5 mm / year for the deformation speed VSLOPE. Overlapping data strain rate and inventory map, along with the geomorphological observations (DEM, topography, orthophotos) and in field tests, have identified the active landslides. The results are: (1) 22% of mapped landslides are active; (2) they have been 5 new landslides identified, (3) the geometry of 5 existing landslides have been redefined, and (4) the identification of new potentially dangerous areas. Throughout the Ma-10 highway, which is the main infrastructure of the Range, the radar has identified 18 active areas which have an average value of VSLOPE exceeding 10 mm / year damages threshold proposed by Masour et al. (2011). From the SAR images it has also been possible to quantify deformations related to lateral spreading processes identified in the southern sector of the Tramuntana. The obtained strain rates lower than -16 mm / year, confirm the slowness of these movements, although in areas takeoff speeds soar to 3 cm / year, which shows the danger of these movements. Thanks to the high number of inventoried rockfalls (103) of variable frequency and magnitude, it has been able to calibrate and validate the STONE Code (Guzzetti et al., 2002) in the Tramuntana Range. This software requires 5 ASCII input maps (digital terrain model, source areas, normal restitution energy coefficient, tangential restitution energy coefficient and dynamic friction coefficient). The calibration dynamic coefficients have been carried out with reference to 40 well-characterised rockfalls, and performing a statistical estimate of the values obtained for each parameter, selecting the simulation that best fits reality. The parameters calibrated have been validated in a first stage, with 10 rockfalls triggered during the humid period 2008-2010 and, in a second stage, with 63 inventoried landslides along the Ma-10 road, which have occurred during the last 18 years. In the first stage of validation it shows that the accuracy of the model varies the scope and the off-path blocks. Rockfalls with a preferential trajectory and shorter range are better represented. In the second stage it is observed that the rockfall with source area in rock massif escarpments present a degree of confidence (81,5% of the events were correctly identified) that the rockfalls with the source area in the road cuttings (only 49% of the rockfalls were identified). Finally, the results obtained have been used to design the main lines of action in the Ma10 versus protection of rockfalls. Three working phases have been established : (1) short-term measures taken in areas where no registered events and results were obtained with simulation STONE; (2) medium-term measures taken where there have been rock falls but the model obtained no results and (3) long-term measures taken for road sections where no rockfalls occurred, but the model obtained results. This research aims to provide a series of calibrated and validated tools in the study area as a basis for future work (regional and/or local) to assess hazard, vulnerability and risk. ; [spa] En el presente trabajo de investigación se han aplicado herramientas novedosas, como son las técnicas de Interferometría Radar Avanzada y los modelos de simulación de desprendimientos rocosos, para analizar la peligrosidad por movimientos de ladera en la Serra de Tramuntana de la Isla de Mallorca. La aplicación de ambas técnicas precisa disponer de buenos datos de partida como son: el inventario detallado de los movimientos del terreno, el conocimiento de los factores condicionantes de las inestabilidades (geología, geomorfología, resistencia de materiales, pendientes, etc.), el análisis de los factores desencadenantes (precipitación, temperatura, erosión marina y torrencial), así como de otros parámetros relativos al impacto generado por estos peligros naturales, tales como los daños causados en viviendas e infraestructuras, y las pérdidas económicas generadas, referentes tanto a los costes directos como indirectos. A partir de trabajos previos focalizados en los movimientos de ladera en la Serra de Tramuntana (Mateos, 2001), de los datos facilitados por el Servicio de Carreteras del Consell Insular de Mallorca y la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern Balear, junto con el trabajo de campo y el análisis de la fotografía aérea llevado a cabo para el presente trabajo, se han inventariado y caracterizado 934 movimientos de ladera en la Serra de Tramuntana desde el siglo XVIII. El inventario incluye las siguientes tipologías: desprendimientos rocosos, deslizamientos (de roca y en suelo), flujos, expansión lateral y colapsos de naturaleza kárstica. La proyección de los puntos inventariados en GIS ha facilitado el estudio de su distribución a lo largo de la Serra y ha permitido llevar a cabo el análisis pormenorizado de los factores que condicionan los movimientos. Se ha podido constatar que el 65,5 % de los movimientos registrados en la Serra corresponden a desprendimientos rocosos y el 25% a deslizamientos. El 54% de los eventos inventariados se localizan en la franja costera de esta cadena montañosa. Los desprendimientos rocosos tienen lugar principalmente (52% de los casos) en los materiales duros del Lías (calizas y brechas dolomíticas principalmente) asociados a los principales escarpes de la Serra, y especialmente a los frentes de cabalgamiento que configuran la estructura geológica de la Tramuntana. Los deslizamientos en suelos afectan principalmente a los sedimentos blandos del Keuper (arcillas versicolores con yesos) y a los depósitos coluviales del Cuaternario, y se concentran principalmente en la mitad suroccidental de la Serra. El evento frío y lluvioso del periodo 2008-2010, que desencadenó un número inusual de movimientos de ladera (14 desprendimientos, 1 avalancha de rocas, 15 deslizamientos, y 4 colapsos Kársticos), ha permitido llevar a cabo un análisis pormenorizado de los factores desencadenantes. Así, los desprendimientos rocosos tuvieron lugar después de la ocurrencia de lluvias intensas, con valores superiores a 90 mm/24h, o bien en macizos rocosos saturados (lluvias acumuladas >800 mm/3 meses) con varios ciclos de hielo-deshielo días previos a la rotura. Los deslizamientos en suelos tuvieron lugar después de lluvias intensas, de moderadas a extremas, y con valores elevados de lluvia acumulada (> 850 mm/3 meses). Sin duda alguna, otro de los motores principales de los procesos gravitacionales es la intensa dinámica litoral de la costa norte, tal y como refleja la elevada distribución de movimientos registrados a lo largo de la franja costera. La colaboración con diferentes agentes sociales de la isla (ayuntamientos, departamentos de la administración local y autonómica etc.,) ha permitido la valoración de las pérdidas económicas causadas por los movimientos de ladera durante el citado periodo 2008-2010, que afectaron a numerosas viviendas e infraestructuras, y principalmente a la red viaria de la Serra. Las pérdidas económicas (directas e indirectas) durante el citado periodo ascendieron a 11 M €, lo que representa el 0,042% del PIB de Baleares. La distribución espacial de los daños muestra que el sector suroeste de la Serra es el que ha soportado mayores pérdidas económicas, especialmente los municipios de Andratx (pérdidas de 2.072.457 €) y el municipio de Calvià (1.700.000 €). Las técnicas de Interferometría Radar Avanzada (DInSAR) se han aplicado con la finalidad de detectar zonas activas con deformaciones del terreno. Para ello, se han procesado numerosas imágenes radar obtenidas por varios satélites: ALOS, ENVISAT, ERS, COSMO SKY- MED, que cubren un espacio temporal de 20 años (desde 1992- 2012). Del conjunto de imágenes, se han seleccionado las correspondientes al sensor PALSAR del satélite ALOS (14/17 imágenes con un intervalo en la secuencia de 46 días), ya que su banda L permite obtener mayor densidad de puntos en zonas desfavorables, y además su cobertura temporal cubre el periodo húmedo 2008-2010. El método de procesado empleado ha sido la técnica Avanzada de procesamiento Diferencial Interferométrico de Dispersión Persistente (PSI) desarrollada por Arnaud et al. (2003); Duro et al. (2005). Con la finalidad de corregir la distorsión geométrica generada por el modo de adquisición de los datos del satélite, se ha proyectado la velocidad estimada de la deformación en la línea de vista del satélite (VLOS) a lo largo de la línea de máxima pendiente (VSLOPE). Los umbrales de deformación establecidos en el área de estudio han sido de: ± 3 mm/año para la velocidad de deformación VLos, y de - 5 mm/año para la velocidad de deformación Vslope. La superposición de los datos de velocidad de deformación al mapa inventario, junto con las observaciones geomorfológicas (DEM, topografía, ortofotos) y comprobaciones en campo, han permitido identificar los deslizamientos activos. Los resultados son: (1) un 22% de los deslizamientos cartografiados son activos; (2) se han identificado 5 deslizamientos nuevos, (3) se ha redefinido la geometría de 5 deslizamientos existentes, y (4) se han identificado nuevas áreas potencialmente peligrosas. A lo largo de la carretera Ma-10, principal infraestructura de la Serra, el radar ha identificado 18 zonas activas que presentan un valor medio de VSLOPE que excede los 10 mm/año, umbral de daños propuesto por Masour et al. (2011). Las imágenes SAR también han permitido cuantificar deformaciones relacionadas con procesos de expansión lateral identificadas en el sector meridional de la Tramuntana. Las velocidades de deformación obtenidas, inferiores a -16 mm/año, confirman la lentitud de estos movimientos, aunque en las zonas de despegue, las velocidades se disparan hasta los 3 cm/año, lo que denota la peligrosidad de estos movimientos. Gracias al elevado número de desprendimientos rocosos inventariados (103), de magnitud y frecuencia variable, se ha podido calibrar y validar el Código STONE (Guzzetti et al., 2002) en la Serra de Tramuntana. Se trata de un software que requiere 5 mapas de entrada en formato ASCII (modelo digital del terreno, áreas fuente, coeficiente de energía de restitución normal, coeficiente de energía de restitución tangencial y coeficiente de fricción dinámica). La calibración de los coeficientes dinámicos se ha llevado a cabo tomando como referencia 40 desprendimientos bien caracterizados, y realizando una estimación estadística de los valores obtenidos para cada parámetro, seleccionando la simulación que mejor se ajusta a la realidad. Los parámetros calibrados se han validado, en una primera etapa, con 10 de los desprendimientos desencadenados durante el periodo húmedo 2008-2010 y, en una segunda etapa, con 63 desprendimientos inventariados a lo largo de la carretera Ma-10, y ocurridos durante los últimos 18 años. En la primera etapa de validación se observa que la precisión del modelo varía dependiendo del alcance y el recorrido de los bloques desprendidos. Desprendimientos con una trayectoria preferencial y menor alcance están mejor representados. En la segunda etapa se observa que los desprendimientos de rocas con el área fuente en escarpes de macizos rocosos presentan más grado de confianza (se identificaron correctamente el 81,5 % de los eventos) que los desprendimientos con el área fuente en taludes de la carretera (solo se identificaron el 49% de los desprendimientos). Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos se han utilizado para diseñar las líneas principales de actuación en la Ma-10 frente a su protección a los desprendimientos. Se han establecido tres fases de trabajo: (1) medidas a corto plazo en aquellas zonas donde hay eventos registrados y se obtuvieron resultados con la simulación del STONE; (2) medidas a medio plazo donde se han registrado caídas de rocas pero el modelo no ha obtenido resultados y (3) medidas a largo plazo para los tramos de carretera donde no se registraron caída de rocas, pero el modelo obtuvo resultados. El presente trabajo de investigación pretende ofrecer una serie de herramientas calibradas y validadas en la zona de estudio como base para futuros trabajos (regionales y/o locales) de peligrosidad, vulnerabilidad y riesgo por movimientos de ladera. ; [cat] En el present treball de recerca s'han aplicat eines noves, com són les tècniques de Interferometria Radar Avançada i els models de simulació de despreniments rocosos, per analitzar la perillositat per moviments de vessant en la Serra de Tramuntana de l' illa de Mallorca. L'aplicació d'ambdues tècniques precisa disposar de bones dades de partida com són : l'inventari detallat dels moviments del terreny, el coneixement dels factors condicionants de les inestabilitats (geologia, geomorfologia, resistència de materials, pendents, etc.), l'anàlisi dels factors desencadenants (precipitació, temperatura, erosió marina i torrencial), així com d'altres paràmetres relatius a l'impacte generat per aquests perills naturals, tals com els danys causats en habitatges i infraestructures, i les pèrdues econòmiques generades, referents tant als costos directes com als indirectes. A partir de treballs previs focalitzats en els moviments de vessant en la Serra de Tramuntana (Mateos, 2001), de les dades facilitades pel Servei de Carreteres del Consell Insular de Mallorca i la Direcció General d'Emergències del Govern Balear, juntament amb el treball de camp i l'anàlisi de la fotografia aèria dut a terme per al present treball de camp, s'han inventariat i caracteritzat 934 moviments de vessant en la Serra de Tramuntana des del segle XVIII. L'inventari inclou les següents tipologies: despreniments rocosos, lliscaments (de roca i en sòl), fluxos, expansió lateral i col.lapses de naturalesa càrstica. La projecció dels punts inventariats en GIS ha facilitat l'estudi de la seva distribució al llarg de la Serra i ha permès dur a terme l'anàlisi detallada dels factors que condicionen els moviments. S'ha pogut constatar que el 65,5% dels moviments registrats en la Serra corresponen a despreniments rocosos i el 25% a lliscaments. El 54% dels esdeveniments inventariats es localitzen a la franja costanera d'aquesta cadena muntanyenca. Els despreniments rocosos tenen lloc principalment (52% dels casos) en els material durs del Lias (calcàries i bretxes dolomítiques principalment) associats als principals penya-segats de la Serra, i especialment als fronts d'encavalcament que configuren l'estructura geològica de la Tramuntana. Els lliscaments en sòls afecten principalment als sediments tous del keuper (argiles versicolors amb guixos) i als dipòsits col.luvials del Quaternari, i es concentren principalment en la meitat suroccidental de la Serra. L'esdeveniment fred i plujós del període 2008-2010, que va desencadenar un nombre inusual de moviments de vessant (14 despreniments, 1 devessall de roques, 15 lliscaments, i 4 col.lapses càrstics), ha permès dur a terme una anàlisi detallada dels factors desencadenants. Així, els despreniments rocosos van tenir lloc després de l'ocurrència de pluges intenses, amb valors superiors a 90 mm/24h, o bé en massissos rocosos saturats (pluges acumulades >800 mm/3 mesos) amb diversos cicles de geldesglaç dies previs al trencament. Els lliscaments en sòls van tenir lloc després de pluges intenses, de moderades a extremes, i amb valors elevats de pluja acumulada (> 850 mm/3 mesos). Sens dubte, un altre dels motors principals del processos gravitacionals és la intensa dinàmica litoral de la costa nord, tal com reflecteix l'elevada distribució de moviments registrats al llarg de la franja costanera.La col.laboració amb diferents agents socials de la illa (ajuntaments, departaments de l'administració local i autonòmica etc.,) ha permès la valoració de les pèrdues econòmiques causades pels moviments de vessant durant el citat període 2008-2010, que van afectar a nombrosos habitatges i infraestructures, i principalment a la xarxa viària de la Serra. Les pèrdues econòmiques (directes i indirectes) durant el citat període van ascendir a 11 M €, la qual cosa representa el 0,042% del PIB Balears. La distribució espacial dels danys mostra que el sector sud-oest de la Serra és el que ha suportat majors pèrdues econòmiques, especialment els municipis d'Andratx (pèrdues de 2.072.457 €) i el municipi de Calvià (1.700.000 €). Les tècniques de Interferometria Radar Avançada (DInSAR) s'han aplicat amb la finalitat de detectar zones actives amb deformacions del terreny. Per a això, s'han processat nombroses imatges radar obtingudes per diversos satèl.lits: ALOS, ENVISAT, ERS, COSMO SKY-MED, que cobreixen un espai temporal de 20 anys (des de 1992-2012). Del conjunt d'imatges, s'han seleccionat les corresponents al sensor PALSAR del satèl.lit ALOS (14/17 imatges amb un interval en la seqüencia de 46 dies), ja que la seva banda L permet obtenir major densitat de punts en zones desfavorables, i a més la seva cobertura temporal cobreix el període humit 2008-2010. El mètode de processament emprat ha estat la tècnica Avançada de processament Diferencial Interferomètric de Dispersió Persistent (PSI) desenvolupada per Arnaud et al. (2003); Dur el al. (2005). Amb la finalitat de corregir la distorsió geomètrica generada per la manera d'adquisició de les dades del satèl.lit, s'ha projectat la velocitat estimada de la deformació en la línia de vista del satèl.lit (VLOS) al llarg de la línia de màxima pendent (VSLOPE). Els llindars de deformació establerts a l'àrea d'estudi han estat de :± 3 mm/any per a la velocitat de deformació VLOS , i de -5 mm/any per a la velocitat de deformació VSLOPE. La superposició de les dades de velocitat de deformació al mapa d'inventari, juntament amb les observacions geomorfològiques (DEM, topografia, ortofotografia) i comprovacions en camp, han permès identificar els lliscaments actius. Els resultats són: (1) un 22% dels lliscaments cartografiats són actius; (2) s'han identificat 5 lliscaments nous, (3) s'ha redefinit la geometria de 5 lliscaments existents, i (4) s'han identificat noves àrees potencialment perilloses. Al llarg de la carretera Ma-10, principal infraestructura de la Serra, el radar ha identificat 18 zones actives que presenten un valor mitjà de VSLOPE que excedeix els 10 mm/any, llindar de danys proposat per Masour et al. (2011) Les imatges SAR també han permès quantificar deformacions relacionades amb processos d'expansió lateral identificades en el sector meridional de la Tramuntana. Les velocitats de deformació obtingudes, inferiors a - 16 mm/any confirmen la lentitud d'aquests moviments, encara que a les zones de desenganxament, les velocitats es disparen fins als 3 cm/any, la qual cosa denota la perillositat d'aquests moviments. Gràcies a l'elevat nombre de despreniments rocosos inventariats (103), de magnitud i freqüència variable, s'ha pogut calibrar i validar el Codi STONE (Guzzetti et al., 2002) en la Serra de Tramuntana. Es tracta d'un programari que requereix 5 mapes d'entrada en format ASCII (model digital del terreny, àrees font, coeficient d'energia de restitució normal, coeficient d'energia de restitució tangencial i coeficient de fricció dinàmica). El calibratge dels coeficients dinàmics s'ha dut a terme prenent com a referència 40 despreniments ben caracteritzats, i realitzant una estimació estadística dels valors obtinguts per a cada paràmetre, seleccionant la simulació que millor s'ajusta a la realitat. Els paràmetres calibrats s'han validat, en una primera etapa, amb 10 dels despreniments desencadenats durant el període humit 2008-2010 i, en una segona etapa, amb 63 despreniments inventariats al llarg de la carretera Ma-10, i ocorreguts durant els últims 18 anys. En la primera etapa de validació s'observa que la precisió del model varia depenent de l'abast i el recorregut dels blocs despresos. Els despreniments amb una trajectòria preferent i de menor abast estan millor representats. En la segona etapa s'observa que els despreniments de roques amb l'àrea font en escarpes de massissos rocosos presenten més grau de confiança (es van identificar correctament el 81,5 % dels esdeveniments) que els despreniments amb l'àrea font en talussos de la carretera (solament es van identificar el 49% dels despreniments). Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'han utilitzat per dissenyar les línies principals d'actuació en la Ma-10 enfront de la seva protecció als despreniments. S'han establert tres fases de treball: (1) Mesures a curt termini en aquelles zones on hi ha esdeveniments registrats i es van obtenir resultats amb la simulació del STONE, (2) Mesures a mitjà termini on s'han registrat caigudes de roques però el model no ha obtingut resultats i (3) mesures a llarg termini per als trams de carretera on no es van registrar caiguda de roques, però el model va obtenir resultats. El present treball de recerca pretén oferir una sèrie d'eines calibrades i validades a la zona d'estudi com a base per a futurs treballs (regionals i/o locals) de perillositat, vulnerabilitat i risc per moviments de vessant.

Introduction Such symptoms as hard, complex, bodily or mental feelings, that turn our everyday life into a hell, at first, lead us to a doctor, and then - to a psychotherapist. A sick man is keen to get rid of a symptom. A doctor prescribes medication, that is ought to eliminate a symptom. A psychotherapist searches for a reason of the problem that needs to be removed. There is such an idea that a neurotic symptom, in particular, an anxiety - is a pathological (spare or extra) response of a body. It is generally believed that such anxiety doesn't have some real, objective reasons and that it is the result of a nervous system disorder, or some disruption of a cognitive sphere etc. Meanwhile, it is known that in the majority of cases, medical examinations of anxious people show that they don't have any organic damages, including nervous system. It often happens that patients even wish doctors have found at least any pathology and have begun its treatment. And yet - there is no pathology. All examinations indicate a high level of functionality of a body and great performance of the brain's work. Doctors throw their hands up, as they can't cure healthy people. One of my clients told me her story of such medical examinations (which I'll tell you with her permission). She said that it was more than 10 years ago. So, when she told her doctor all of her symptoms - he seemed very interested in it. He placed a helmet with electrodes on her head and wore some special glasses, when, according to her words, he created some kind of stressful situation for her brain, as she was seeing some flashings of bright pictures in her eyes. She said that he had been bothered with her for quite a long time, and at the end of it he had told her that her brain had been performing the best results in all respects. He noted that he'd rarely got patients with such great health indicators. My client asked the doctor how rare that was. And he answered: "one client in two or three months." At that moment my client didn't know whether to be relieved, flattered or sad. But since then, when someone told her that anxiety was a certain sign of mental problems, or problems with the nervous system, or with a body in general, she answered that people who had anxiety usually had already got all the required medical examinations sufficiently, and gave them the advice to go through medical screening by themselves before saying something like that. Therefore, we see a paradoxical situation, when some experts point to a neurotic anxiety as if it is a kind of pathology, in other words - some result of a nervous system disorder. Other specialists in the same situation talk about cognitive impairments. And some, after all the examinations, are ready to send such patients into space Main text I don't agree with the statement that any neurotic anxiety that happens is excessive and unfounded. It often happens that there is objective, specific and real causes for appearance of anxiety conditions. And these causes require solutions. And it's not about some organic damages of the brain or nervous system. The precondition that may give a rise to anxiety disorder is the development of such a life story that at some stage becomes too toxic - when, on the one hand, a person interacts with the outside world in a way that destroys his or her personality, and, on the other hand, this person uses repression and accepts such situation as common and normal. Repression - is an essential condition for the development of a neurotic symptom. Sigmund Freud was the first who pointed this out. Repression is such a defense mechanism that helps people separate themselves from some unpleasant feelings of discomfort (pain) while having (external or internal) irritations. It is the situation when, despite the presence of irritations and painful feelings, a person, however, doesn't feel any of it and is not aware of them in his or her conscious mind. Repression creates the situation of so-called emotional anesthesia. As a result, a displacement takes place, so a body starts to signal about the existing toxic life situation via a symptom. Anxiety disorder is usually an appropriate response (symptom) of a healthy body to an unhealthy life situation, which is seen by a person as normal. And it's common when such a person is surrounded by others (close people), who tend to benefit from such situation, and so they actively maintain this state of affairs, whether it is conscious for them or not. At the beginning of a psychotherapy almost all clients insist that everything is good in their lives, even great, as it is like in everyone else's life. They say that they have only one problem, which is that goddamn symptom. So they focus all of their attention on that symptom. They are not interested in all the other aspects of their life, and they show their irritation when it comes to talking about it. People want to get rid of it, whatever it takes, but they often tend to keep their lives the way that it was. In such cases a psychotherapist is dealing with the resistance of clients, trying to turn their attention from a symptom to their everyday situation that includes their way of thinking, interactions with themselves and with others and with the external world in order to have the opportunity to see the real problem, to live it through, to rethink and to change the story of their lives. For better understanding about how it works I want to tell you three allegorical tales. The name of the first tale is "A frog in boiling water". There is one scientific anecdote and an assumption (however, it is noted that such experiments were held in 19 century), that if we put a frog in a pot with warm water and start to slowly heat the water, then this frog get used to the temperature rise and stays in a hot water, the frog doesn't fight the situation, slowly begins to lose its energy and at the last moment it couldn't find enough strength and energy to get out of that pot. But if we throw a frog abruptly in hot water - it jumps out very quickly. It is likely that a frog, that is seating in boiling water, will have some responses of the body (symptoms). For example, the temperature of its body will rise, the same as the color of it, etc., that is an absolutely normal body response to the existing situation. But let us keep fantasizing further. Imagine a cartoon where such a frog is the magical cartoon hero, that comes to some magical cartoon doctor, shows its skin, that has changed the color, to the doctor, and asks to change the situation by removing this unpleasant symptom. So the doctor prescribes some medication to return the natural green color of the frog's skin back. The frog gets back in its hot water. For some period of time this medication helps. But then, after a while, the frog's body gets over the situation, and the redness of the frog's skin gets back. And the magical cartoon doctor states that the resistance of the body to this medication has increased, and each time prescribes some more and more strong drugs. In this example with the frog it is perfectly clear that the true solution of the problem requires the reduction of the water temperature in that pot. We could propose that magical cartoon frog to think and try to realize that: 1) the water in that pot is hot, and that is the reason why the skin is red; 2) the frog got used to this situation and that is why it is so unnoticeably for this frog; 3) if the temperature of the water in the pot still stay so hot, without any temperature drop, then all the medication works only temporarily; 4) if we lower the temperature in that pot - the redness disappears on its own, automatically and without any medication. Also this cartoon frog, that will go after the doctor to some cartoon physiotherapist, will face the necessity to give itself some answers for such questions as: 1) What is going on? Who has put this frog in that pot? Who is raising the temperature progressively? Who needs it? And what is the purpose or benefit for this person in that? Who benefits? 2) Why did the frog get into the pot? What are the benefits in it for the frog? Or why did the frog agree to that? 3) What does the frog lose when it gets out of this pot? What are the consequences of it for the frog? What does the frog have to face? What are the possible difficulties on the way? Who would be against the changes? With whom the frog may confront? 4) Is the frog ready to take control over its own pot in its own hands and start to regulate the temperature of the water by itself, so to make this temperature comfortable for itself? Is this frog ready to influence by itself on its own living space, to take the responsibility for it to itself? The example "A frog in boiling water" is often used as a metaphorical portrayal of the inability of people to respond (or fight back) to significant changes that slowly happen in their lives. Also this tale shows that a body, while trying to adjust to unfavorable living conditions, will react with a symptom. And it is very important to understand this symptom. Symptom - is the response of a body, it's a way a body adjusts to some unfriendly environment. Symptom, on the one hand, informs about the existence of a problem, and from the other hand - tries to regulate this problem, at least in some way (like, to remove or reduce), at the level on which it can do it. The process is similar to those when, for example, in a body, while it suffers from some infectious disease, the temperature rises. Thus, on the one hand, the temperature informs about the existence of some infection. On the other hand, the temperature increase creates in a body the situation that is damaging for the infection. So, it would be good to think about in what way does an anxiety symptom help a body that is surrounded by some toxic life situation. And this is a good topic for another article. Here I want to emphasize that all the attempts to remove a symptom without a removal of a problem, without changing the everyday life story, may lead to strengthening of the symptom in the body. Even though the removal of a symptom without elimination of its cause has shown success, it only means that the situation was changed into the condition of asymptomatic existence of a problem. And it is, in its essence, a worse situation. For example, it can cause an occurrence of cancer. The tale "A frog in boiling water" is about the tendency of people to treat a symptom, instead of seeing their real problems, as its cause, and trying to solve it. People don't want to see their problems, but it doesn't mean that the problem doesn't exist. The problem does exist and it continues to destroy a person, unnoticeably for him or her. A person with panic disorder could show us anxiety that is out of control (fear, panic), which, by its essence, seems to exist without any logical reason. Meanwhile the body of such a person could be in such processes that are similar to those that occur in the conditions of some real dangers, when the instinct for self-preservation is triggered and an automatic response of a body to fight or flight implements for its full potential. We can see or feel signs of this response, for example, in cases when some person tries to avoid some real or imaginary danger via attempts to escape (the feeling of fear), or tries to handle the situation by some attempts to fight (the feeling of anger). As I mentioned before, many doctors believe that such fear is pathological, as there is no real reason for such intense anxiety. They may see the cause of the problem in worrisome temper, so they try to remove specifically anxiety rather than help such patients to understand specific reason of their anxiety, they use special psychotherapeutic methods that are designed to help clients to develop logical thinking, so it must help them to realize the groundlessness of their anxiety. In my point of view, such anxiety often has specific, real reasons, when this response of a body, fight or flight, is absolutely appropriate, but not excessive or pathological. Inadequacy, in fact, is in the unconsciousness, but not in the reactions of a body. For a better understanding of the role of anxiety in some toxic environment, that isn't realized, I want to tell you another allegorical tale called "The wolf and the hare". Let us imagine that two cages were brought together in one room. The wolf was inside one cage and the hare was in another. The cages were divided by some kind of curtain that makes it impossible for them to see each other. At this point a question arises whether the animals react to each other in some way in such a situation, or not? I think that yes, they will. Since there are a lot of other receptors that participate in the receiving and processing of the sensory information. As well as sight and hearing, we have of course a range of other senses. For example, animals have a strong sense of smell. It is well known that people, along with verbal methods of communicating information, like language and speaking, also have other means of transmitting information - non-verbal, such as tone of voice, intonation, look, gestures, body language, facial expressions etc., that gives us the opportunity to receive additional information from each other. The lie detector works by using this principle: due to detecting non-verbal signals, it distinguishes the level of the accuracy of information that is transmitted. It is assumed, that about 30% of information, that we receive from the environment, comes through words, vision, hearing, touches etc. This is the information that we are aware of in our consciousness, so we could consciously (logically) use it to be guided by. And approximately 70% of everyday information about the reality around us we receive non-verbally, and this information in the majority of cases could remain in us without any recognition. It is the situation when we've already known something, and we even have already started to respond to it via our body, but we still don't know logically and consciously that we know it. We can observe the responses of our own body without understanding what are the reasons for such responses. We can recognize this unconscious information through certain pictures, associations, dreams, or with the help of psychoanalysis. Psychoanalysis is a great tool that can help to recognize the information from the unconscious mind, so that it can be logically processed further on, in other words, a person then receives the opportunity to indicate the real problems and to make right decisions. But let us return to the tale where the hare and the wolf stay in one room and don't see each other, and, maybe, don't hear, though - feel. These feelings (in other words - non-verbal information that the hare receives) activate a certain response in the hare's body. And it reacts properly and adequately to the situation, for instance, the body starts to produce adrenaline and runs the response "fight or flight". So the hare starts to behave accordingly and we could see the following symptoms: the hare is running around his cage, fussing, having some tremor and an increased heart rate, etc. And now let us imagine this tale in some cartoon. The hare stays in its house, and the wolf wanders about this house. But the hare doesn't see the wolf. Though the body of the hare gives some appropriate responses. And then that cartoon hare goes to a cartoon doctor and asks that doctor to give it some pill from its tremor and the increased heart rate. And in general asks to treat in some way this incomprehensible, confusing, totally unreasonable severe anxiety. If we try to replace the situation from this fairy-tale to a life story, we could see that it fits well to the script of interdependent relationships, where there are a couple "a victim and an aggressor", and where such common for our traditional families' occurrences as a domestic family violence, psychological and physical abuse take place. Only in 2019 a law was passed that follows the European norms and gives a legislative definition of such concepts as psychological domestic abuse, sexual abuse, physical abuse, bullying, that criminalizes all of these occurrences, establishes the punishment and directly points to people that could be a potential abuser. Among them are: a husband towards his wife, parents towards their children, a wife towards her husband, a superior towards a subordinate, a teacher towards his or her students, children towards each other etc. When it comes to recognition of something as unacceptable, it seems more easy to put to that category such occurrences as physical and sexual abuse, as we could see here some obvious events. For example, beating or sexual harassment. Our society is ready to respond to these incidents in more or less adequate way, and to recognize them as a crime. But it is harder to deal with the recognition of psychological abuse as an offence. Psychological abuse in our families is common. Psychological abuse occurs through such situations, when one person, while using different psychological manipulations, such as violation of psychological borders, imposition of feeling of guilty or shame, etc., force another person to give up his or her needs and desires, and so in such a way make this person live another's life. Such actions have an extremely negative effect on the mental health of these people, just as much as physical abuse. It can destroy a person from the inside, ruin self-esteem and a feeling of self-worth, create the situation of absolute dependence such victim from an abuser, including financial dependence etc. It often happens that psychological abuse takes place against the backdrop of demonstrations of care and love. So you've got this story about the wolf and the hare, that are right next to each other, and the shield between two of them is a repression - a psychological defense mechanism, when a person turns a blind eye to such offences, that take place in his or her own life and towards him or her. And this person considers this as normal, doesn't realize, doesn't have a resource to realize, that it is a crime. Most importantly - doesn't feel anything, as a repression takes place. But a body responds in a right way - from a certain point of the existence of such a toxic situation the response "fight or flight" is launched in a body at full, in other words - the fear and anxiety with the associated symptoms. The third allegorical tale I called "Defective suit", which I read in the book of Clarissa Pinkola Estés with the name "Running With the Wolves". "Once one man came to a tailor and started to try on a suit. When he was standing in front of a mirror, he saw that the costume had uneven edges. - Don't worry, - said the tailor. - If you hold the short edge of the suit by your left hand - nobody notices it. But then the man saw that a lapel of a jacket folded up a little bit. - It's nothing. You only need to turn your head and to nail it by your chin. The customer obeyed, but when he put on trousers, he saw that they were pulling. - All right, so just hold your trousers like this by your right hand - and everything will be fine, - the tailor comforts him. The client agreed with him and took the suit. The next day he put on his new suit and went for a walk, while doing everything exactly in the way that the tailor told him to. He waddled in a park, while holding the lapel by his chin, and holding the short edge of the suit by his left hand, and holding his trousers by his right hand. Two old men, who were playing checkers, left the game and started to watch him. - Oh, God! - said one of them. - Look at that poor cripple. - Oh, yes - the limp - is a disaster. But I'm wondering, where did he get such a nice suit?" Clarissa wrote: "The commentary of the second old man reflects the common response of the society to a woman, who built a great reputation for herself, but turned into a cripple, while trying to save it. "Yes, she is a cripple, but look how great her life is and how lovely she looks." When the "skin" that we put on ourselves towards society is small, we become cripples, but try to hide it. While fading away, we try to waddle perky, so everyone could see that we are doing really well, everything is great, everything is fine". As for me, this tale is also about the process of forming a symptom in a situation when one person tries very hard to match to another one, whether it is a husband, a wife or parents. It's about a situation when such a person always tries to support the other one, while giving up his or her own needs and causing oneself harm in such a way by feeling a tension every day, that becomes an inner normality. And so this person doesn't give oneself a possibility to relax, to be herself (or himself), to be spontaneous, free. As a result, in this situation the person, who was supported, looks perfect from the outside, but those who tried to match, arises some visible defect, like a limp - a symptom. And so this person lives like a cripple, under everyday stress and tension, trying to handle it, while sacrificing herself (or himself) and trying to maintain this situation, so not to lose the general picture of a beautiful family and to avoid shame. The tailor, who made this defective suit and tells how to wear the suit properly, in order to keep things going as they are going, often is a mother who raised a problematic child and then tells another person how to deal with her child in the right way. It is the situation when a mother-in-law tells her daughter-in-law how to treat her son properly. In other words, how to support him, when to keep silent, to handle, how to fit in, so that her problematic son and this relationship in general looks perfect. Or vice versa, when a mother-in-law tells her son-in-law how to support her problematic daughter, how to fit in etc. When, for example, a woman acts like this in her marriage and with her husband, with these excessive efforts to fit in - then after a while everybody will talk like: "Look at this lovely man: he lives with his sick wife, and their family seems perfect!". But when such a woman becomes brave enough to relax and to just let the whole thing go, everybody will see that the relationship in her marriage isn't perfect, and it is the other one who has problems. Each time when someone tries excessively to match up to another one, while turning oneself in some kind of a cripple, - he or she, on the one hand, supports the comfort of that person, to whom he or she tries to match up, and on the other hand - such a situation always arises in that person such conditions as a continuous tension, anxiety, fear to act spontaneously. A symptom - is like a visible defect, that shows itself through the body (and may look like some kind of injury). It is the result of a hidden inner prison. As a result of evolution, a pain tells us about a problem that is needed to be solved. When we repress our pain we can't see our needs and our problems at full. And then a body starts to talk to us via a symptom. Psychotherapy aims for providing a movement from a symptom to a resumption of sensitivity to feelings, a resumption of the ability to feel your psychological pain, so you can realize your own toxic story. In this perspective another fairy-tale looks interesting to analyze - it is Andersen's fairytale "Princess and the Pea". In the tale a prince wanted to find a princess to marry. There was one requirement for women candidates, so the prince could select her among commoner - high level of sensitivity, as the real princess would feel a pea through the mountain of mattresses, and so she could have the ability to feel discomfort, to be in a good contact with her body, to tell about her discomfort without such feeling as shame and guilt, and to refuse that discomfort, so to have the readiness to solve her problems and to demand from others the respect for her needs. It is common for our culture that the expression "a princess on a pea" very often uses for a negative meaning. So people who are in good contact with their body and who can demand comfort for themselves are often called capricious. At the same time the heroes who are ready to suffer and to tolerate their pain, who are able to repress (stop to feel) their pain represents a good example to be followed in our society. So, we may see the next algorithm in cases of various anxiety disorders: the existence of some toxic situation that brings some danger to a person. And we need not to be confused: a danger exists not for a body, but for a personality. A toxic live situation as well as having a panic attack is not a threat for the health of a body (that is what medical examinations show), and vice versa - it's like every day intensive sport training, that could be good for your health only to some degree. A toxic situation destroys a person as a personality, who longs for one self's expression; the existence of such a defense mechanism as repression - it's a life with closed eyes, in pink glasses, when there is inability (or the absence of the desire) to see its own toxic story; 3.the presence of a symptom - a healthy response of a body "fight or flight" to some toxic situation; displacement - it's replacement of the attention from the situation to a symptom, when a person starts to see and search for the problem in some other place, not where it really is. A symptom takes as some spare, pathological reaction that we need to get rid of. The readiness to fight the symptom arises, and that is the goal of such methods of therapy as pharmacological therapy, CBT and many others; the absence of adequate actions that are directed towards the change of a toxic situation itself. The absence of the readiness to show aggression when it comes to protect its space. All of it is a mechanism of formation of primary anxiety and preparation for launch of secondary anxiety. A complete anxiety disorder is the interaction between a primary and a secondary anxiety.