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Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people's behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. We have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a behavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Taking into account behavioural insights improves the description of the contagion dynamics of the epidemic significantly. The BeSEIR predictions regarding the number of infections without NPIs were several orders of magnitude less than the SEIR. However, the BeSEIR prediction showed that early measures would still have an important influence in the reduction of infections. The BeSEIR model shows that even with no intervention the percentage of the cumulative infections within a year will not be enough for the epidemic to resolve due to a herd immunity effect. On the other hand, a standard SEIR model significantly overestimates the effectiveness of measures. Without taking into account the behavioural component, the epidemic is predicted to be resolved much sooner than when taking it into account and the effectiveness of measures are significantly overestimated.

People with learning disabilities in England and Scotland have experienced an increased risk of illness and death during the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on data of a longitudinal qualitative study with 71 disabled people and 31 disability organisations, this article examines the experiences of 24 people with learning disabilities in England and Scotland during the pandemic, reflecting on what rendered them vulnerable and placed them at risk. Qualitative interviews were conducted with participants and key informants at two timepoints; June–August 2020 and February–April 2021. Findings emerged across four key themes: failure to plan for the needs of people with learning disabilities; the suspension and removal of social care; the impact of the pandemic on people's everyday routines; and lack of vaccine prioritisation. The inequalities experienced by people with learning disabilities in this study are not particular to the pandemic. We explore the findings in the context of theoretical frameworks of vulnerability, including Fineman's conceptualisation of a 'vulnerability paradigm'. We conclude that the structured marginalisation of people with disabilities, entrenched by government action and inaction, have created and exacerbated their vulnerability. Structures, policies and action must change.

Air transport is an essential component of the tourism industry, and the number, frequency, and capacity of flight connections may influence the level of tourism demand, especially for island destinations. This paper evaluates the influence of air transport on tourism arrivals to selected islands in seven southern European Union countries to determine the nature of the relationship between tourist arrivals and air transport, specifically, whether air transport services generate tourism demand or merely enable touristic flows. The paper uses panel data and applies an econometric model with justifications for endogeneity and dynamic issues. Results show a moderate impact of transport infrastructures on generating additional tourist arrivals; however, the model shows that air transport is a prerequisite to developing tourism demand and is not the only determinant in increasing tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals appear more a determinant than a consequence of changes in-flight connections.

Background Over the years, sanitation programs over the world have focused more on household sanitation, with limited attention towards the disposal of children's stools. This lack of attention could be due to the misconception that children's stools are harmless. The current study examined the individual and contextual predictors of safe disposal of children's faeces among women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods The study used secondary data involving 128,096 mother-child pairs of under-five children from the current Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 15 sub-Saharan African countries from 2015 to 2018. Multilevel logistic analysis was used to assess the individual and contextual factors associated with the practice of safe disposal of children's faeces. We presented the results as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) at a statistical significance of p< 0.05. Results The results show that 58.73% (57.79-59.68) of childbearing women in the 15 countries in SSA included in our study safely disposed off their children's stools. This varied from as high as 85.90% (84.57-87.14) in Rwanda to as low as 26.38% (24.01-28.91) in Chad. At the individual level, the practice of safe disposal of children's stools was more likely to occur among children aged 1, compared to those aged 0 [aOR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.68-1.80] and those with diarrhoea compared to those without diarrhoea [aOR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.13-1.21]. Mothers with primary level of education [aOR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30-1.5], those aged 35-39 [aOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12-1.28], and those exposed to radio [aOR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.20-1.27] were more likely to practice safe disposal of children's stools. Conversely, the odds of safe disposal of children's stool were lower among mothers who were married [aOR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.69-0.80] and those who belonged to the Traditional African Religion [aOR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.51-0.80]. With the contextual factors, women with improved water [aOR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.10-1.16] and improved toilet facility [aOR = 5.75 95% CI: 5.55-5.95] had higher odds of safe disposal of children's stool. On the other hand, mothers who lived in households with 5 or more children [aOR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86-0.93], those in rural areas [aOR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89], and those who lived in Central Africa [aOR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.18-0.21] were less likely to practice safe disposal of children's stools. Conclusion The findings indicate that between- and within-country contextual variations and commonalities need to be acknowledged in designing interventions to enhance safe disposal of children's faeces. Audio-visual education on safe faecal disposal among rural women and large households can help enhance safe disposal. In light of the strong association between safe stool disposal and improved latrine use in SSA, governments need to develop feasible and cost-effective strategies to increase the number of households with access to improved toilet facilities.

Introduction In spite of the countless initiatives of the Ghana government to improve the quality of maternal healthcare, Upper West Region still records poor childbirth outcomes. This study, therefore, explored women's perception of the quality of maternal healthcare they receive in the Wa Municipality of the Upper West Region of Ghana. Materials and methods This is a qualitative cross-sectional study of 62 women who accessed maternal healthcare in the Wa Municipality of Ghana. We analysed the transcripts using the analytic inductive technique. An inter-coding technique (testing for inter-coding agreement) was employed. The iterative coding process resulted in a coding scheme with four main themes. We used peer-debriefing technique in ensuring credibility and trustworthiness. Results Logistics and equipment; referral service; empathic service delivery; inadequacy of care providers; affordability of service; satisfaction with services received; as well as experience and service delivery were the parameters used by the women in assessing quality maternity care. A number of gaps were reported in the healthcare system including limited healthcare providers, limited beds and inefficient referral system. Conversely, some of them reported that some healthcare providers offered empathetic healthcare. Contrary views were expressed with respect to satisfaction with maternity care. Conclusion Government and all stakeholders seeking to enhance quality of maternal health and accelerate the attainment of the third Sustainable Development Goal need to reconsider the financing of service delivery at health institutions. Indeed, our findings have illustrated that routine workshops on empathetic healthcare are required in efforts to increase the rate of facility-based childbirth, and thereby subside maternal mortality and all adverse pregnancy outcomes.

How ruling elite arrange and maintain their power-sharing is key to our understanding of authoritarian politics. We analyze the dynamics of elite power-sharing in authoritarian regimes using a network framework that embeds actors onto a low-dimensional space. We also introduce a novel dataset tracking appearances of elite Chinese Community Party (CCP) members at political events. Our framework and data allow us to disentangle three key aspects of CCP elite power-sharing: (1) who are in charge, (2) who do I work with, and (3) who are my friends. Using a latent factor network analysis of approximately 10,000 appearance records of over 200 top CCP elites from 2013 to 2017, we empirically assess these three questions by computing elites' total appearances, dyadic coappearances, and their distance in a latent social space. We test how well these three indicators fare at predicting elites' appointments to the leading small groups (LSGs) of the CCP Central Committee and the Central Government, and from that analysis are able to highlight the need to account for the indirect ties elites share.

Translational Assets (TAs) are considered one of the actors that play a critical role within the national innovation system (NIS) of every country that embraces university, government and industry collaboration. Moreover, these organisations have been established to support industries, companies, and particularly SMEs, filling the university-industry gap. Although the establishment of translational assets creates many benefits, this organisational ecosystem has been a controversial topic. It is hampered by a lack of consensus on how to define and classify translational assets. The problem arises because of their heterogeneity. This study identifies the critical factors for presenting a general classification from the analysis of academic papers and technical reports. The proposed classification is built, showing the factors of organisational structure, resources and motivation for collaboration on a bidirectional continuum. Therefore, this paper's findings provide a proposed classification of three main types of TAs, which are as follows: exploratory, plug and developer/solver. This is a heuristic classification that provides enrichment to the literature and a better understanding for practitioners of these organisations' behaviour.

Objectives This study sought to understand the different approaches taken to involving the public in service reconfiguration in the four United Kingdom health systems. Methods This was a multi-method study involving policy document analysis and qualitative semi-structured interviews in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Results Despite the diversity of local situations, interview participants tended to use three frames within which they understood the politics of service reconfigurations: an adversarial approach which assumed conflict over scarce resources (change against the public); a communications approach which defined the problem as educating the public on the desirability of change (change for the public); and a collaborative approach which attempted to integrate the public early into discussions about the shape and nature of desirable services (change with the public). These three framings involved different levels of managerial time, energy, and resources and called on different skill sets, most notably marketing and communications for the communications approach and community engagement for the collaborative approach. Conclusions We argue that these framings of public involvement co-exist within organisations. Health system leaders, in framing service reconfiguration as adversarial, communicative or collaborative, are deciding between conceptions of the relationship between health care organisations and their publics in ways that shape the nature of the debates that follow. Understanding the reasons why organisations adopt these frames would be a fruitful way to advance both theory and practice.

Background Poor healthcare-seeking behaviour is a major contributing factor for increased morbidity and mortality among children in low- and middle-income countries. This study assessed the individual and community level factors associated with healthcare-seeking behaviour for childhood illnesses among mothers of children under five in Chad. Methods The study utilized data from the 2014–2015 Chad Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 5,693 mothers who reported that their children under five had either fever accompanied by cough or diarrhea or both within the two weeks preceding the survey were included in this study. The outcome variable for the study was healthcare-seeking behaviour for childhood illnesses. The data were analyzed using Stata version 14.2. Multilevel binary logistic regression model was employed due to the hierarchical nature of the dataset. Results were presented as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) at 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Out of the 5,693 mothers who reported that their children under five had either fever accompanied by cough, diarrhea or both at any time in the 2 weeks preceding the survey, 79.6% recalled having sought treatment for their children's illnesses. In terms of the individual level factors, mothers who faced financial barriers to healthcare access were less likely to seek healthcare for childhood illnesses, relative to those who faced no financial barrier (aOR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.99). Mothers who reported that distance to the health facility was a barrier were less likely to seek healthcare for childhood illnesses, compared to those who faced no geographical barrier to healthcare access (aOR = 79, 95% CI = 0.65–0.95). Mothers who were cohabiting were less likely to seek healthcare for childhood illnesses compared to married mothers (aOR = 0.62 95% CI = 0.47–0.83). Lower odds of healthcare seeking for childhood illnesses was noted among mothers who did not listen to radio at all, relative to those who listened to radio at least once a week (aOR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.55–0.91). Mothers who mentioned that their children were larger than average size at birth had a lesser likelihood of seeking childhood healthcare, compared to those whose children were of average size (aOR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.66–0.95). We further noted that with the community level factors, mothers who lived in communities with medium literacy level were less likely to seek childhood healthcare than those in communities with high literacy (aOR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.53–0.99). Conclusion The study revealed that both individual (financial barriers to healthcare access, geographical barriers to healthcare access, marital status, frequency of listening to radio and size of children at birth) and community level factors (community level literacy) are associated with healthcare-seeking behaviour for childhood illnesses in Chad. The government of Chad, through multi-sectoral partnership, should strengthen health systems by removing financial and geographical barriers to healthcare access. Moreover, the government should create favourable conditions to improve the status of mothers and foster their overall socio-economic wellbeing and literacy through employment and education. Other interventions should include community sensitization of cohabiting mothers and mothers with children whose size at birth is large to seek healthcare for their children when they are ill. This can be done using radio as means of information dissemination.

ObjectiveTo explore the nature of genetic-susceptibility to multiple sclerosis (MS) in African-Americans.BackgroundRecently, the number of genetic-associations with MS has exploded although the MS-associations of specific haplotypes within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been known for decades. For example, the haplotypes HLA-DRB1*15:01~HLA-DQB1*06:02, and HLA-DRB1*03:01~ HLA-DQB1*02:01 have odds ratios (ORs) for an MS-association orders of magnitude stronger than many of these newly-discovered associations. Nevertheless, all these haplotypes are part of much larger conserved extended haplotypes (CEHs), which span both the Class I and Class II MHC regions. African-Americans are at greater risk of developing MS compared to a native Africans but at lesser risk compared to Europeans. It is the purpose of this manuscript to explore the relationship between MS-susceptibility and the CEH make-up of our African-American cohort.Design/methodsThe African-American (AA) cohort consisted of 1,305 patients with MS and 1,155 controls, who self-identified as being African-American. For comparison, we used the 18,492 controls and 11,144 MS-cases from the predominantly European Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) and the 28,557 phased native Africans from the multinational "Be the Match" registry. The WTCCC and the African-Americans were phased at each of five HLA loci (HLA-A, HLA-C, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1) and the at 11 SNPs (10 of which were in non-coding regions) surrounding the Class II region of the DRB1 gene using previously-published probabilistic phasing algorithms.ResultsOf the 32 most frequent CEHs, 18 (56%) occurred either more frequently or exclusively in Africans) whereas 9 (28%) occurred more frequently or exclusively in Europeans. The remaining 5 CEHs occurred in neither control group although, likely, these were African in origin. Eight of these CEHs carried the DRB1*15:03~DQB1*06:02~a36 haplotype and three carried the DRB1*15:01~DQB1*06:02~a1 haplotype. In African Americans, a single-copy of the European CEH (03:01_07:02_07:02_15:01_06:02_a1) was associated with considerable MS-risk (OR = 3.30; p = 0.0001)-similar to that observed in the WTCCC (OR = 3.25; p<10-168). By contrast, the MS-risk for the European CEH (02:01_07:02_07:02_15:01_06:02_a1) was less (OR = 1.49; ns)-again, similar to the WTCCC (OR = 2.2; p<10-38). Moreover, four African haplotypes were "protective" relative to a neutral reference, to three European CEHs, and also to the five other African CEHs.ConclusionsThe common CEHs in African Americans are divisible into those that are either African or European in origin, which are derived without modification from their source population. European CEHs, linked to MS-risk, in general, had similar impacts in African-Americans as they did in Europeans. By contrast, African CEHs had mixed MS-risks. For a few, the MS-risk exceeded that in a neutral-reference group whereas, for many others, these CEHs were "protective"-perhaps providing a partial rationale for the lower MS-risk in African-Americans compared to European-Americans.

Understanding long-run patterns in the incarceration of Black Americans requires integrating the study of racial inequality with the study of political economy. I offer a parsimonious framework describing how the Black incarceration rate has been affected by the dynamics of exploitation and exclusion over time and across space. This framework helps to explain otherwise puzzling facts, like why the Black incarceration rate was lower in the South than in the North for much of the 20th century, why it was lowest in the South's cotton belt, and why it began to tick upward when it did. It also enables us to better understand recent changes in racial and class inequality in incarceration in the United States.

Emerging technologies have driven the rise of many water-related startups and created new opportunities in water markets. The global water crisis could be mitigated by applying innovative technologies, sound water management decisions, and successful business models, and it is essential to better understand the status and future trends of emerging water markets. This study aims to discover shifts in the entrepreneurial landscape and evaluate water startups' development performance for the sustainable development of emerging water markets. We collected and analyzed data including the founding date, service area, service provided, details of funding raised, revenues, and consumer responses on 132 water startups founded between 2008 and 2018 in California, USA. Our results indicated that municipal area dominated the emerging water startup market compared to agricultural and industrial areas, and that many of the services provided shifted from conventional technologies to digital technologies. Though digital water startups' current revenues were relatively low, digital techniques applied in the water industry exhibited the good potential to promote public health and water saving. The development trends and performance of water startups enlighten the technological and commercial revolutions in the emerging water market, and provide guidelines for the decision-making in relevant stakeholders in the scientific, governmental, and industrial communities.

Within public administration, coproduction is a ubiquitous policy discourse, and increasingly an analytic lens through which public relationships with public services are viewed. This paper reports an interpretive qualitative study of community practices around three changing hospitals in the Scottish NHS, comprising semi-structured qualitative interviews with citizens, NHS staff, politicians and journalists, as well as non-participant observation of community and NHS events. Initially focused on community opposition to top-down hospital change, the study identified a surprising range of supportive community actions for their local hospitals, including volunteering, fundraising and innovative co-delivered service models. Building on these examples, the paper presents a model of 'fugitive coproduction', where individuals and groups within communities collaborate with local staff in ways which significantly shape the provision of local services, without permission or authorisation from relevant authorities, and in modes that are centrally concerned with immediate perceived need not strategic change. I argue that these forms of public action can make valuable contributions to public services, and that they hold lessons for the wider reform of public administration.

BACKGROUND:In June 2019, Beverly Hills, California, became the first American city in the 21st century to pass an ordinance ending the sale of most tobacco products, including cigarettes, and it is unlikely to be the last. Knowledge of previous efforts to ban tobacco sales in the US, both successful and unsuccessful, may help inform tobacco control advocates' approach to future efforts. METHODS:We retrieved and analyzed archival tobacco industry documents. We confirmed and supplemented information from the documents with news media coverage and publicly available state and local government materials, such as meeting minutes and staff reports, related to proposed bans. RESULTS:We found 22 proposals to end the sale of cigarettes or tobacco products from 1969-2020 in the US. Proposals came from five states, twelve cities or towns, and one county. Most came from elected officials or boards of health, and were justified on public health grounds. In opposing tobacco sales bans, the tobacco industry employed no tactics or arguments that it did not also employ in campaigns against other tobacco control measures. Public health groups typically opposed sales ban proposals on the grounds that they were not evidence-based. This changed with Beverly Hills' 2019 proposal, with public health organizations supporting this and other California city proposals because of their likely positive health impacts. This support did not always translate into passage of local ordinances, as some city council members expressed reservations about the impact on small businesses. CONCLUSION:Tobacco control advocates are likely to encounter familiar tobacco industry tactics and arguments against tobacco sales ban proposals, and can rely on past experience and the results of a growing body of retail-related research to counter them. Considering how to overcome concerns about harming retailers will likely be vital if other jurisdictions are to succeed in ending tobacco sales.

Nationally representative data on the micronutrient status of Ghanaian women and children are very scarce. We aimed to document the current national prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, anemia, malaria, inflammation, α-thalassemia, sickle cell disease and trait, and under- and over-nutrition in Ghana. In 2017, a two-stage cross-sectional design was applied to enroll pre-school children (6–59 months) and non-pregnant women (15–49 years) from three strata in Ghana: Northern, Middle and Southern Belt. Household and individual questionnaire data were collected along with blood samples. In total, 2123 households completed the household interviews, 1165 children and 973 women provided blood samples. Nationally, 35.6% (95%CI: 31.7,39.6) of children had anemia, 21.5% (18.4,25.0) had iron deficiency, 12.2% (10.1,14.7) had iron deficiency anemia, and 20.8% (18.1,23.9) had vitamin A deficiency; 20.3%(15.2,26.6) tested positive for malaria, 13.9% (11.1,17.3) for sickle trait plus disease, and 30.7% (27.5,34.2) for α-thalassemia. Anemia and micronutrient deficiencies were more prevalent in rural areas, poor households and in the Northern Belt. Stunting and wasting affected 21.4% (18.0,25.2) and 7.0% (5.1,9.5) of children, respectively. Stunting was more common in rural areas and in poor households. Among non-pregnant women, 21.7% (18.7,25.1) were anemic, 13.7% (11.2,16.6) iron deficient, 8.9% (6.7,11.7) had iron deficiency anemia, and 1.5% (0.8,2.9) were vitamin A deficient, 53.8% (47.6,60.0) were folate deficient, and 6.9% (4.8,9.8) were vitamin B12 deficient. Malaria parasitemia in women [8.4% (5.7,12.2)] was lower than in children, but the prevalence of sickle cell disease or trait and α-thalassemia were similar. Overweight [24.7% (21.0,28.8)] and obesity [14.3% (11.5,17.7)] were more common in wealthier, older, and urban women. Our findings demonstrate that anemia and several micronutrient deficiencies are highly present in Ghana calling for the strengthening of Ghana's food fortification program while overweight and obesity in women are constantly increasing and need to be addressed urgently through governmental policies and programs.