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Election forecasting is a growing enterprise. Structural models relying on "fundamental" political and economic variables, principally to predict government performance, are popular in political science. Conventional wisdom though is these standard structural models fall short in predicting individual blocs' performance and their applicability to multiparty systems is restricted. We challenge this by providing a structural forecast of bloc performance in Ireland, a case primarily overlooked in the election forecasting literature. Our model spurns the economic and performance variables conventionally associated with structural forecasting enterprises and instead concentrates on Ireland's historical party and governance dynamics in the vein of testing whether these patterns alone offer solid predictions of election outcomes. Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), our approach, comprising measures of incumbency, short-term party support, and political and economic shocks, offers reasonable predictions of the vote share performance of four blocs: Ireland's two major parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Independents, and the Left bloc combined across 20 elections spanning 60 years.

In this timely book, Carol S. Weissert proves that federalism is highly relevant to the modern world and worthy of deeper academic study. Highlighting the dynamic nature of federalism, this book focuses on linking scholarship to the policy and politics of federalism in the US and across the world

The first scholarly edition of critically edited, previously unpublished notes of Whitehead's philosophy lectures from 1925 to 1927Reproduces more than 170 lectures delivered by Alfred North Whitehead during his 2nd and 3rd years at Harvard Provides a window into the development of Whitehead's thought in the lead up to the publication of his most significant work, Process and RealityReproduces the drawings Whitehead created on the board in class providing new insights into his thinking – invaluable because his published works include no diagramsFor the first time, Whitehead's readers will be able to see the development of his philosophy during the crucial period between the publication of Science and the Modern World and his delivery of the Gifford lectures that would become Process and Reality, as he tests his theories in a classroom setting. These student notes provide the long-missing window into critical developments in Whitehead's thinking during this time. They challenge longstanding speculations about when exactly Whitehead developed some of his most famous metaphysical concepts, and how those concepts are to be properly interpreted against the wider backdrop of his life and thought.Also included is a transcript of the only known lecture Whitehead delivered on the topic of ethics, two mid-year exams given to his students and nearly 2,000 footnotes that provide additional context for the lectures and alternative student accounts of key passages

The victories of the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s have paved the way for African-American elected officials, judges, police officers, and presidents. But fifty years on, why has this political representation translated into few positive policy outcomes for African Americans? Michael McQuarrie writes that the reasons for this are many: persistent racist sentiment, general biases in the American polity towards business and rural interests, the declining resources available to municipalities, and most importantly, the geographic concentration of African Americans in areas with smaller electoral footprints –compared to statewide offices – such as House districts and mayoralties.

The article examines the problem of relations between the General and the Unique in the social and political sciences. The author highlights the different views on this perspective: some scientists explain specific cases by bringing them under general theories and laws while others researchers emphasize that each case, each phenomenon is unique and shouldn't be generalization. The author theorizes that there is a methodological bridge between the generalizing spirit of social science and uniqueness of events and cases.