Middle East/Gulf
In: Strategic survey: the annual assessment of geopolitics, S. 177-230
ISSN: 0459-7230
In this chapter in the Strategic Survey 2004/5, the authors analyze issues & events impacting the strategic developments of the Middle East/Gulf states from the viewpoint of American policy initiatives on transnational Islamist terrorism & political reform. The first discussion addresses the complex political task of reforming the Iraqi state in the security vacuum of counter-insurgency enforcement, & the challenges facing the government's ability to bring order to the country. The second issue challenging security in the Middle East is pinpointed to be Iran's elusive domestic politics & nuclear strategy that challenge stability in the region. Thirdly, although the tensions in US-Saudi relations reflect geopolitical frustration in the region, the bilateral relationship has remained stable. Fourth, success for peace in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict will ultimately dependent on Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, & will require the US to empower a secular leadership in Palestine as a viable substitute for Hamas. J. Harwell