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The Chameleon Literary Journal has served as Norwich University's arts and creative writing magazine since 1961. Under the mentorship of its advisor Professor Sean Prentiss, third-year student Lydia Brown analyzed all past publishings in order to understand the extent to which Norwich University students represented LGBTQ+ members, people of color, and women throughout the years. This internship also allowed her to explore the overall history of The Chameleon Literary Journal, including its distinct differences from era to era. As the final product, such findings were accumulated over the course of a single semester and comprised into the following written report. ; Winner of the 2022 Friends of the Kreitzberg Library Award for Outstanding Research in the University Archives category. ; Brown 1 Looking Back on the Representation of LGBTQ+ Members, People of Color, & Women An Analysis of The Chameleon Literary Journal, 1961 — Present Lydia Brown Department of English & Communications, Norwich University EN 415: English Internship Professor Sean Prentiss Fall 2021 Brown 2 Abstract The Chameleon Literary Journal has served as Norwich University's arts and creative writing magazine since 1961. Under the mentorship of its advisor Professor Sean Prentiss, third-year student Lydia Brown analyzed all past publishings in order to understand the extent to which Norwich University students represented LGBTQ+ members, people of color, and women throughout the years. This internship also allowed her to explore the overall history of The Chameleon Literary Journal, including its distinct differences from era to era. As the final product, such findings were accumulated over the course of a single semester and comprised into the following written report. Brown 3 The Chameleon | 1961 - Present Brief Historical Background Founded in 1961, The Chameleon Literary Journal continues to serve as Norwich University's arts and creative writing magazine under a team of student editors. Norwich University undergraduate and graduate students are welcome to submit various pieces for review, such as visual arts, drama, poetry, creative nonfiction, and fiction. Sean Prentiss, a published author and professor of creative writing, was selected to be the advisor of the journal when he arrived on campus in 2012. Since his arrival, he has assisted the journal in becoming multilingual by translating students' creative writing pieces into multiple languages. In addition, three-four creative writing awards are issued annually to writers who distinguish themselves amongst the rest of the student body. Brown 4 Introduction Significance of Representation Representation is a system for unambiguously organizing values, ideas, and conduct — all of which enable communication and social exchange amongst members of a particular group or community. From birth onward, an individual's self-c 1 oncept and values are affected by the surrounding environment. Adolescence is an especially critical period for identity development as the classroom serves as the primary site of socialization, although the American K-12 and college school systems have previously marginalized students who were perceived as different. Women are also encouraged from an early age to adhere to the traditional role of a homemaker, rather than pursue vocational training, higher education, and careers in STEM. As the reader will observe in the following excerpts from The Chameleon Literary Journal, Norwich University is no stranger to marginalization as women were not officially admitted for enrollment prior to the mid-1970s. Telltale signs found in the language used by Norwich student contributors indicate that slurs, stereotypes, and insults used against minorities and women were normalized for much of the Chameleon's history. It was not until the early 2000s that there appears to be a significant social shift within the student body due to the increasing presence of minorities and women on campus. Based on these findings, American society seemed to finally be becoming more inclusive, allowing minority Norwich students to express themselves freely, develop social stability, and gain a sense of acknowledgment through positive identity formation as well as representation. 1 "APA Dictionary of Psychology." American Psychological Association, https://dictionary.apa.org/social-representation. Brown 5 Baby Boomers | 1946 - 1964 Brief Historical Background Following World War II and the Great Depression, a significant spike in birth rates occurred throughout the United States. Approximately 76.4 million babies were born over the course of these nineteen years. Most historians claim that this phenomenon stems from the general population's desire to establish their own families — an undertaking that was previously postponed due to World War II. The Servicemen's Readjustment Act also gave soldiers an additional reason to have larger families as the G.I. Bill granted stipends for college tuition, job-finding assistance, and housing expenses. During this time period, economic growth began to increase and the majority of Americans had an optimistic outlook for the future. This encouraged families to relocate from the sparse countryside to the bustling atmospheres of nearby cities. Once these cities were overcrowded by newcomers, plans for large residential communities were undertaken by housing pioneer William Levitt who created the suburbs as a result.2 However, those with xenophobic tendencies followed quickly relocated to the suburbs as cities became miniature melting pots of integrated immigrants with various political, social, and economic backgrounds. This sparked disputes among the American people as legalized statutes remained persistent in enforcing segregation at both the state and local capacity.3 2 Nohria, Nitin, Anthony Mayo, and Mark Benson. "William Levitt, Levittown and the Creation of American Suburbia." Harvard Business School Case 406-062, December 2005. (Revised March 2010.) 3 The first three years of the Chameleon were released during the Baby Boomers generation but were mostly written by students who were born during the Silent Generation (1928-1945). Brown 6 Baby Boomers Overview of Significant Events • Brown v. Board of Education becomes a landmark Supreme Court case (1954). • Civil Rights Movement begins (1954). • Rosa Parks refuses to give up her seat to a white man on a public bus (1955). • Montgomery Bus Boycott tackles segregation on the public transit system (1955). • Emmett Till, a 14-year-old African American, is lynched in Mississippi (1955). • 1956 Sugar Bowl becomes the first integrated college football game in the South (1956). • Civil Rights Act becomes the first federal civil rights legislation since 1875 (1957). • Little Rock Crisis prevents students from enrolling in a racially segregated school (1957). • Greensboro sit-ins initiate protests regarding the South's policy of segregation (1960). • Nashville sit-ins initiate protests regarding the South's policy of segregation (1960). • Gay Liberation Movement begins (1960). • Alliance for Progress initiates improved economic cooperation with Latin America (1961). • Katherine Johnson assists NASA's 1962 Friendship 7 Mission (1962). • Civil Rights Act establishes federal inspection of voter registration polls (1960). • Children's Crusade addresses segregation within the school system (1963). • Martin Luther King Jr. leads the March on Washington (1963). • Betty Friedan publishes The Feminine Mystique (1963). • President Johnson proposes the Great Society to combat poverty and racial injustice (1963). • Civil Rights Act outlaws discrimination based on race, religion, and sex (1964). Brown 7 Baby Boomers The Chameleon Highlights "A young woman driving a truck!? That was unusual, no doubt about it…Stupid woman, all guts, and no brains! … Maybe you can imagine what went on inside the young man when an officer stopped him and hurriedly said; Never mind, mister, there's nothin' you can do, she's dead, just some dirty n***** woman truck driver" (1963). 4 —- An excerpt from "The Wanderers" by R. Reid The use of profanities towards both people of color and women appears to be a commonality amongst Norwich student contributors from the Chameleon's founding in 1961 through much of the decade. In this short story, "The Wanderers," terms such as stupid and dirty are used to target a woman of color for being a trucker. The author continues to expand the character's description by using calling the woman the N-word. Deriving from the Spanish word negro, the N-word is now considered taboo as its connotation has been predominantly used by white people to demean those of color. Black social identity has been especially damaged by the usage of this word as it severs their overall sense of national belonging. 5 4 Complete usage of the word is censored in respect of the black community. 5 Pryor, Elizabeth Stordeur. "The Etymology of N*****: Resistance, Politics, and the Politics of Freedom in the Antebellum North." Colored Travelers: Mobility and the Fight for Citizenship before the Civil War, 2016, https:// doi.org/10.5149/northcarolina/9781469628578.003.0002. Brown 8 "…I saw everything. The city has been purified, swept clean, and now fosters only the black scars and in glorious moments of the past…You liar! You had to see the city die! You had to see it spill its false entrails out in the rotten streets to be devoured by the cleansing fires. This place is no longer dirty…" (1961). —- An excerpt from "The Dream Monger" by Anonymous In this short story, "The Dream Monger," the phrase cleansing fires reveals itself to be the cause of death and destruction. Like the Holocaust, mass genocides often surround ideologies associated with ethnic cleansing. This allows for a geographical area to become ethnically homogeneous under an establishment of power. In 20th-century America, for example, Anglo- American colonialism constituted the genocide of countless Natives in America and around the world. Such events will never be widely coined as genocide, however, due to the number of those who survived exploitation, disease, malnutrition, and neglect. 6 The term black scars also leads to further speculation that this short story may involve post-slavery events of America's racial segregation system. One of which included the Tulsa race massacre, decimating the Black business ecosystem and killing 6,000 community members. 7 Many other excerpts were found focusing on a more negative portrayal of the BIPOC community and women, although there was no mention of LGBTQ+ members.8 6 Anderson, Gary C. Ethnic Cleansing & the Indian: The Crime That Should Haunt America. University Of Oklahoma Press, 2015. 7 Kapadia, Reshma. "The Tulsa Massacre Left a Lasting Impact on Wealth." Trade Journal, vol. 101, no. 22, 31 May 2021. 8 Many other excerpts were found focusing on a more negative portrayal of the BIPOC community and women during this time. However, there was no mention of LGBTQ+ members. Brown 9 Generation X | 1965 - 1980 Brief Historical Background Those who grew up during this time were accustomed to having a sense of independence from an early age. This was caused by the increased divorce rates throughout the United States, the unique dynamics of single-parent households, and dual-income parents who were not able to spend as much time at home. Most parents found a life-long career in computers, business management, construction, or transportation. Although routinely working long hours, they still managed to find a healthy balance between exhibiting their creative freedoms within the workplace and maintaining personal relationships with their children. Also referred to as latchkey kids, Gen Xers often spent their downtime conversing with friends via email, channel surfing on the television, or playing video games. They also seemed to have a deep interest in musical genres associated with social-tribal identities, including punk rock and heavy metal. This meant that music became an important self-identifying factor, even influencing the type of attire an individual wore on a daily basis. In the 1960s and 1970s, a countercultural movement known as the hippie era catalyzed other self-identifying factors — especially for those who identified as members of the LGBTQ+ community. American writer Allen Ginsberg formed the core of the movement as he openly opposed all military efforts, sexual repression, and capitalism.9 Ginsburg also identified as gay, serving as positive a role model for members of the LGBTQ+ community and allies alike. 10 9 Silos, Jill Katherine. "Everybody Get Together: The Sixties Counterculture & Public Space, 1964-1967." University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository, 2003. 10 Eleven years of Chameleon issues were released during Generation X but were mostly written by students who were born during the Baby Boomers generation (1946-1964). Brown 10 Generation X Overview of Significant Events • Selma to Montgomery marches promote voting rights for African Americans (1965). • Thurgood Marshall becomes the first African American Supreme Court Justice (1965). • Immigration & Nationality Act outlaws de facto discrimination against immigrants (1965). • Voting Act outlaws racial discrimination in voting (1965). • Malcolm X is assassinated (1965). • Watts Riots occur in light of Marquette Frye's arrest (1965). • Nation Organization for Women is established (1966). • American Indian Movement is founded (1967). • Detroit Riot sheds blood between black residents and the Detroit Police Department (1967). • Martin Luther King Jr. is assassinated (1968). • Fair Housing Act outlaws discrimination regarding housing (1968). • Shirley Chisholm becomes the first black woman elected to Congress (1968). • East Los Angeles Walkouts are organized by Mexican American students (1968). • Stonewall Riots call for LGBTQ+ members to respond to police raids (1969). • Swann v. Charlotte-Mecklenburg becomes a landmark Supreme Court case (1971). • AIM protests against injustice under law enforcement towards Native Americans (1972). • Roe v. Wade becomes a landmark Supreme Court case (1973). • Billie Jean King wins the "Battle of the Sexes" tennis match (1973). • Beverly Johnson becomes the first black model on the cover of Vogue (1974). Brown 11 Generation X Relevance to The Chameleon "The pedestrian Walks, talks, and discriminates On such vital and valid criteria as Color, breeding and religion. Sees sex, and is offended. Grows indignant. Has a firm conviction that freedom of speech sometimes goes too far When it lets Martin Luther King "cause trouble" and "incite" riots" (1965). —- An excerpt from "The Pedestrian" by Jacob Sartz Unlike most pieces of writing from the 1960s publishings, this free verse poem seems to call out the discriminatory tendencies of others. The author especially targets any person whose ideologies are rooted in racism, sexism, and other gateways leading to unequal treatment. By labeling them as the pedestrian, such subtlety creates an effect where anyone can be the principal character and thus the reader may begin to question their own actions. As the author begins to shift towards a more political ambiance, African American activist Martin Luther King Jr. is mentioned. From the pedestrian's perspective, however, King is known to overstep the principle of free speech with the exception of cases where it benefits the white majority. Brown 12 "He had gone through a variety of different girls in the next six years, and he had accumulated an assortment of different names in his address book, including a few of the local sweethearts that he'd called up in dire sexual emergencies… When he had heard that his little "streetlight girl" had been married, he put a check next to her name in the book as he had done for several other old flames that had been put out of commission for one reason or another. He thought of her a little while after that, but closed the book as he had always done" (1970). —- An excerpt from "The Street Light" by Paul LeSage Unlike our example directly above, there are several alarming factors sprinkled throughout this short story, revealing how a man uses the sexual objectification of women to his advantage. The man's use of an address book further proves this implication as the women he has been sexually involved with are jotted down in writing. Visually speaking, the reader may think of a grocery list or an inventory of stock goods when it comes to the address book's description. The man proceeds to check off the women who no longer sexually benefit him all while refusing to use their real names, ultimately dehumanizing them in the process. This allows the reader to further explore the harmful effects of sexual objectification, pushing them to decipher the differences between sex and sexualizing.11 11 Many other excerpts were found focusing on a more negative portrayal of the BIPOC community and women during this time. However, there was no mention of LGBTQ+ members. Brown 13 Generation Y | 1981 - 1996 Brief Historical Background Many of those who were either born into this generation or lived through it prioritized their careers and personal interests above marriage. This means that they were having fewer children than their predecessors. Like Gen Xers, Millenials were known to be tech-savvy with a specific preference to communicate through email or text. MTV brought them further reason to enjoy screen time when the cable channel was launched in 1981. Originally created to showcase music videos, MTV quickly moved to television personalities. Michael Jackson, for example, served as the precedent for television personalities and leading artists, topping the charts throughout the duration of the 1980s. He eventually became one of the most well-loved television personalities who dedicated much of his offscreen time to charitable efforts. Prince, Whitney Houston, Diana Ross, and many others followed closely behind. Based on the increased media representation of minority artists, it's safe to say that this particular time frame allowed for people of color to debut their own music videos for the first time. This urged the public to gravitate towards soul music and R&B, marking the start of this generation's willingness to embrace black creators. Alongside music, technological advances in STEM were budding with breakthroughs. Women paved the way towards many of these breakthroughs under large startups and federal organizations, inspiring younger girls to do the same through higher education. 12 12 Eighteen years of Chameleon issues were released during Generation Y but mostly written by students who were born during Generation X (1965-1976). Brown 14 Generation Y Overview of Significant Events • Asian American/Pacific Islander Heritage Week is implemented in May (1979). • Boston African American National Historic Site is established (1980). • AIDS Epidemic begins, causing numerous deaths in the LGBTQ+ community (1981). • Sandra Day O'Connor is nominated as the first female Supreme Court Justice (1981). • Federation of Survival Schools leads legal education seminars for Native students (1984). • Ellison Onizuka, the first Asian-American in space, dies in the Challenger disaster (1986). • Minneapolis AIM Patrol refocuses on protecting native women in Minneapolis (1987). • Sally K. Ride becomes the first American woman in space (1983). • Susan Kare made typeface contributions to the first Apple Macintosh (1983). • Michael Jordan is named the NBA's "Rookie of the Year " (1985). • Nadia Perlman invents the spanning-tree protocol (1985). • Carole Ann-Marie Gist becomes the first African American to win Miss USA (1990). • Freddie Mercury dies from AIDS (1991). • Rodney King is brutally beaten by LAPD officers (1991). • AIM revives the Sun Dance ceremony in Pipestone, Minnesota (1991). • Los Angeles Riots result in numerous deaths and $1 billion in damage (1992). • Mae Jemison becomes the first African American woman in space (1992). • National Coalition in Sports & Media Forms is established by native leaders (1992). • "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" bars the LGBTQ+ community from military service (1993). Brown 15 Generation Y Relevance to The Chameleon "I slowly adapt myself to another man's world, But I soon realize that my character is a reflection Of a foreign spectrum I see myself through another man's eyes, My words come from another man's mouth, And my ideals are relocated from another man's mind" (1980). —- An excerpt from "A Nostalgic Experience" by Noble Francis Allen America's social construction has continued to uphold whiteness throughout the duration of its history, while people of color must condition themselves to that of the norm. In this case, the author speaks in the first person, signifying their position as the principal character who is faced with having to mirror the way others perceive the world. This implies that the narrator may have had a weakened sense of self-identity at the time this poem was written. Self-identity is an especially important feature as it consists of the traits, characteristics, social relations, and roles that define who one is. An individual's racial and ethnic 13 background is also included within the same realm due to the distinguishment of their given group's cultural values, kinship, and beliefs.14 13 Oyserman, Daphna, and George Smith. "Self, Self-Concept, and Identity." Handbook of Self and Identity, edited by Kristen Elmore, 2nd ed., The Guilford Press, New York, NY, 2012, pp. 69–104. 14 Woo, Bongki, et al. "The Role of Racial/Ethnic Identity in the Association Between Racial Discrimination & Psychiatric Disorders: A Buffer or Exacerbator?" SSM - Population Health, vol. 7, 7 Apr. 2019, p. 100378., https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100378. Brown 16 "Across his back is a deerskin quiver, and in the quiver, there are seven feathered arrows. Gripped in his sweaty palm is an oak bow. A golden-handled sword, whose blade is as long as a man's leg, hangs from his waist. Its once binding shine has been replaced by a thick coat of blood. His skin is the color of golden honey, and his hair is the reflection of yellow sunshine… A woman emerges from the foliage of the wildwood. Warm sunshine gleams off of browned skin. Raven-black hair drops over a slender neck, and ends upon soft shoulders. Unsuspecting almond-eyes gaze wildly at the sky. She is nude. Her breasts are round, full, and tipped with chocolate nipples. A thin waist gives way to broad hips, and eventually slender legs" (1980). —- An excerpt from "A Blind Odin" by Mitchell T. Kubiak This short story, "A Blind Odin," depicts a deep contrast between the description of a man and the description of a woman. The man embodies characteristics associated with a skilled hunter, such as strength and courage. The woman, however, is only described based on her physical features, all of which seem to align with the male gaze. For those who are not familiar with feminist theory, the male gaze is perceived from a masculine heterosexual perspective with aspects of voyeurism, objectification, fetishism, and scopophilia attached.15 Further descriptions of the woman's bodily proportions also suggest clues about the author, although it is crucial for the reader to understand that Norwich University had very few female candidates at the time this short story was written. 16 15 Snow, Edward. "Theorizing the Male Gaze: Some Problems." Representations, vol. 25, 1989, pp. 30–41., https:// doi.org/10.2307/2928465. 16 Many other excerpts were found focusing on both positive and negative portrayals of the BIPOC community and women during this time. However, there was no mention of LGBTQ+ members. Brown 17 Generation Z | 1997 - 2009 Brief Historical Background Gen Zers are the first to experience technological advances from birth onward. Once the majority reached adolescence, it became evident that there was a growing demand for portable devices. Although the first smartphone was released by IBM during the early 1990s, its overall bulkiness and poor battery life were not ideal for communication lines. Apple has since become the most popular phone brand in the United States. It also helped that the company released the iPod, a portable music device with, at the time, the ability to store over 200 songs. The same year also marked the events of several terrorist attacks on September 11th. Two jet airliners shattered the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in a series of terrorist attacks, killing nearly 3,000 people and injuring twice as many. Those responsible were later identified as members of al-Quaeda, a militant Islamist organization led by Saudi Arabian terrorist Osama bin Laden. Life became all the more difficult for Muslim Americans as they continuously experienced the dangers of Islamophobia on a daily basis. Such dangers surrounded an ongoing spike in hate crimes, ranging from cold-blooded murder to vandalism of places of worship. Even when there was a slight decline in hate crimes years later, Muslim Americans continued to struggle with employment discrimination. Many of those who practiced Islam were either laid off or turned away during the hiring process for reasons directly relating to their religion. By the end of Generation Z, religion no longer served as a determining factor during the hiring process and diversity became a primary focus in the workplace. 17 17 Thirteen years of Chameleon issues were released during Generation Z but were mostly written by students who were born during Generation Y (1977-1995). Brown 18 Generation Z Overview of Significant Events • Gary Locke becomes the first Asian American governor of a mainland state (1996). • Kalpana Chawla boards Columbia as the first woman in space of Indian origin (1997). • Serena Williams wins the U.S. Open Women's Singles Tennis Championship (1999). • Maurice Ashley becomes the world's first black Grandmaster in chess (2000). • Permanent Partners Immigration Act is introduced to Congress (2000). • Equality Mississippi is founded as an LGBT civil rights organization (2000). • Millennium March on Washington raises awareness of LGBT issues (2000). • Elaine Chao is selected as the first Asian American to be Secretary of Labor (2001). • Patriot Act allows the indefinite detention of immigrants and warrantless searches (2001). • Cincinnati-based riots spark unrest following Timothy Thomas' death (2001). • Balbir Singh Sodhi's death is deemed the first fatal act of violence as a result of 9/11 (2001). • Dennis Archer becomes the first African American to be President of the ABA (2002). • Goodridge v. Dept. of Public Health becomes a landmark Supreme Court case (2003). • Grutter v. Bollinger becomes a landmark Supreme Court Case (2003). • Same-sex marriage is first legalized in the state of Massachusetts (2004). • Del Martin and Phyllis Lyon are wed, becoming the first legal same-sex marriage (2004). • Condoleezza Rice is named the first black woman to be Secretary of State (2005). • Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (2007). • Barack Obama is elected as the first African American to hold office (2009). Brown 19 Generation Z Relevance to The Chameleon "You called me a fa***t and said no one would love me But I am here to say what goes around comes around And now it's your turn to get knocked down" (2004). —- An excerpt from "The Bastard Son" by James A. Hoffman Now used as a slur in reference to homosexual men and boys, the term fa***t has its own unique origin. The term's former use in the Norwegian dialect was originally emplaced to describe a bundle of firewood. Because these bundles were large in size, the term eventually moved towards describing heavyset women who were often seen as slovenly and thus placing them near the bottom of all social classes. When British English ha 18 d made a far greater influence on the Scandinavian languages, the term was combined with bugger, also known as a person who engages in anal or oral sex. Premodern Europe was known to persecute heretics during this time, including homosexuals, as they did not conform to the belief systems of the Church. 19 This short story, "The Bastard Son," is one of the first positive representations of LGBTQ+ members found in the Chameleon as the narrator gains the courage to speak against negative attitudes and feelings surrounding the LGBTQ+ community. 18 Johansson, Warren. "The Etymology of the Word 'Fa***t'." William Percy. 19 Karras, Ruth Mazo. "The Regulation of 'Sodomy' in the Latin East & West." Speculum, vol. 95, no. 4, 2020, pp. 969–986., https://doi.org/10.1086/710639. Brown 20 Generation Z Relevance to The Chameleon "Mother, you are the greatest woman I know. I have based my life upon yours, all the great things you have done and all the obstacles that you were able to overcome; the thing that I admire most about you is the fact that you were a single mother of four and didn't need a man's help, but I always knew that was a great challenge for me, in this world that is much too different from the one that you grew up. To me, that was the greatest obstacle that you conquered" (2004). —- An excerpt from "Mother's Love" by A.M.T Lebron In this dedication, "Mother's Love," the author retrieves past memories in writing to celebrate their mother. It is not often that Norwich student contributors write about the entailments of motherhood. Although it remains unclear whether the author's mother was divorced, widowed, or remained unmarried, the family has a relentless source of love for one another and proceeds to use their shared affection to overcome challenges. Such challenges include economic hardships and increased states of stress as a single mother often relies on one source of income. There is also reason to believe that those raised in similar households develop a sense of independence resembling that of their mother. Some may even develop additional 20 internal resources that will allow them to construct their own identity far from the gender roles typically seen within the American household. 21 20 Kinser, Amber E. Motherhood & Feminism. Seal Press, 2010. 21 Many other excerpts were found focusing on both positive and negative portrayals of minority communities and women. Brown 21 Generation Alpha | 2010 - Present Brief Historical Background Many of those who are either born into this generation or currently living through it witness technological advances at an accelerating rate to the extent of replacing the previously known means of childhood entertainment with mobile devices and streaming services. The dawning of this generation also brought Instagram, the most frequently preferred social media platform to date. The thought of having children was generally delayed across the United States following the economic crisis of 2008, while young adults reportedly dealt with increasing stress from education debt. Following the economic crisis of 2008, it is not uncommon for young adults to deal with increasing stress from education debt. Many Gen Zers who previously planned on extending their families during this time were also affected as financial worries prevented them from having children. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused further economic turmoil when small businesses had to close down to prevent the spread of the virus. Those who were employed under larger corporations, however, moved their offices to home. Between dual-career families and remote work, the boundaries separating professional and personal life became blurred. 22 Such challenges have proved that the young faces of Generation Alpha are capable of resilience, utilizing their own diverse backgrounds to tackle the more difficult questions. This includes advocating for fairness in all aspects of society and questioning the validity of gender. 22 Jha, Amrit Kumar. "Understanding Generation Alpha ." OSF Preprints, 20 June 2020. Brown 22 Generation Alpha Overview of Significant Events • Apple's iPad is released, also known as the first touchscreen tablet PC (2010). • President Barack Obama begins his second term (2013). • Defense Against Marriage Act is struck down by the Supreme Court (2013). • Black Lives Matter emerges as a political movement (2013). • Michael Brown is fatally shot by a Ferguson police officer (2014). • Nine African Americans churchgoers are killed during a Bible study in Charleston (2015). • Same-sex marriage is legalized in all 50 states (2015). • Pulse Nightclub shooting causes the deaths of 49 LGBTQ+ members (2016). • Unite the Right, a white supremacist rally, leads to three deaths in Charlottesville (2017). • Me Too movement is relaunched following the Harvey Weinstein accusations (2017). • Director Jon M. Chu breaks box office records with his film Crazy Rich Asians (2018). • California Synagogue shooting causes the injuries of three and the death of one (2019). • President Trump's wall receives $2.5 billion in funds under the Supreme Court (2019). • Kobe Bryant, along with his daughter, dies in a helicopter crash (2020). • Geroge Floyd is murdered by a Minneapolis police officer during an arrest (2020). • Kamala Harris becomes the 49th vice president (2021). • Spa shooting in Atlanta leaves eight dead, with six being of Asian descent (2021). Brown 23 Generation Alpha Relevance to The Chameleon "It had only been four days since I was bought from the Greens. The Green House was known for cutting off the body parts of slaves and letting them bleed out slowly or waiting for them to die of infection. They used to take other slaves to the field and pick different parts to cut off. If they cut off too much and you couldn't work anymore, they'd leave the bodies in the field as an example of what happens when you make mistakes. " (2019). —- An excerpt from "Mixed Voices" by Alain Cropper-Makidi The author moves to educate the reader on a particular building utilized during America's slavery period. Also known as the Green House, the building lay separate from the main house and lodged slaves who were being punished for fieldwork mistakes. Whipping, burning, branding, raping, and imprisoning were some of the most common punishments for slaves. However, the Green House resorted to dismembering the slaves' limbs and allowing them to bleed out. This short story, "Mixed Voices," also addresses that some slaves received educational instruction from the main house's mistress. This was most likely executed in secret as slaves were generally prohibited from reading and writing out of fear that they would forge travel passes and escape. 23 23 "Literacy as Freedom - American Experience." SAAM, Smithsonian American Art Museum, https:// americanexperience.si.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Literacy-as-Freedom.pdf. Brown 24 "One day You tell me that let's be Together I shake my head Say I'm tired of your lies Rather to get myself alone" (2020). 有⼀天 你对我说我们在⼀起吧 我摇摇头 说我厌倦了你的虚伪 宁愿孤独 —- An excerpt from "Untitled" by Zenghui Zhang Like several others, this poem was both written and translated by a student under Professor Lenny Hu. Since his arrival at Norwich, Professor Hu has assigned his Chinese students the task of writing and translating poetry. This allows them to expand their Chinese literacy and gain a sense of passion for the language itself. As the Norwich language department continues to grow, translations will continue to be included in future Chameleon issues for the benefit of promoting diverse students and staff who already understand or aim to learn beyond that of the English language. Brown 25 Conclusion Sustains & Improves After reviewing all past issues of the Chameleon, it is clear that Norwich's literary journal previously published pieces of writing representing LGBTQ+ members, the BIPOC community, and women in a negative light. This was especially true from 1961 through the late 1990s. Gradually, the Chameleon has begun to positively represent our communities. During our current time period, for example, positive representations have become the primary focus under Professor Sean Prentiss and his team of student editors who have made a conscious effort in improving the Chameleon as a whole. Student writers who distinguish themselves amongst the rest of the student body are oftentimes selected for awards. One of which is the "Be You, Be True Prize" for the best writing by or about the LGBTQ+ community. Additionally, many Norwich University professors currently include culturally sustaining pedagogies within their curricula. Such pedagogies include seeking nontraditional texts, merging language varieties, and encouraging students to explore cultural spaces. To maintain as well as improve such efforts, Norwich University affiliates must remain aware that America's long history of combating minorities often resulted in bloodshed. Although not to the extent of our previous generations, similar events still continue to occur today. Therefore, as one of the most renowned military colleges in the United States, it is our responsibility to protect minority students and ensure that they perceive themselves as valuable members of the community. Without them, the future stands for nothing. Brown 26 References Anderson, Gary C. Ethnic Cleansing & the Indian: The Crime That Should Haunt America. University Of Oklahoma Press, 2015. "APA Dictionary of Psychology." American Psychological Association, https:// dictionary.apa.org/social-representation. Jha, Amrit Kumar. "Understanding Generation Alpha ." OSF Preprints, 20 June 2020. Johanssen, Warren. "The Etymology of the Word F*****." William Percy, pp. 356–359. Kapadia, Reshma. "The Tulsa Massacre Left a Lasting Impact on Wealth." Trade Journal, vol. 101, no. 22, 31 May 2021. Karras, Ruth Mazo. "The Regulation of 'Sodomy' in the Latin East & West." Speculum, vol. 95, no. 4, 2020, pp. 969–986., https://doi.org/10.1086/710639. Kinser, Amber E. Motherhood & Feminism. Seal Press, 2010. "Literacy as Freedom - American Experience." SAAM, Smithsonian American Art Museum, https://americanexperience.si.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Literacy-as-Freedom.pdf. Nohria, Nitin, Anthony Mayo, and Mark Benson. "William Levitt, Levittown and the Creation of American Suburbia." Harvard Business School Case 406-062, December 2005. (Revised March 2010.) Oyserman, Daphna, and George Smith. "Self, Self-Concept, and Identity." Handbook of Self and Identity, edited by Kristen Elmore, 2nd ed., The Guilford Press, New York, NY, 2012, pp. 69–104. Brown 27 Pryor, Elizabeth Stordeur. "The Etymology of N*****: Resistance, Politics, and the Politics of Freedom in the Antebellum North." Colored Travelers: Mobility and the Fight for Citizenship before the Civil War, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5149/northcarolina/ 9781469628578.003.0002. Silos, Jill Katherine. "Everybody Get Together: The Sixties Counterculture & Public Space, 1964-1967." University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository, 2003. Snow, Edward. "Theorizing the Male Gaze: Some Problems." Representations, vol. 25, 1989, pp. 30–41., https://doi.org/10.2307/2928465. Tenaglia, Sean. '"Seeing Yourself in the Story:' The Influence of Multicultural Education on Adolescent Identity Formation." The Virginia English Journal, vol. 68, 2018. Woo, Bongki, et al. "The Role of Racial/Ethnic Identity in the Association Between Racial Discrimination & Psychiatric Disorders: A Buffer or Exacerbator?" SSM - Population Health, vol. 7, 7 Apr. 2019, p. 100378., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100378.

Physical activity (PA) may modify the genetic effects that give rise to increased risk of obesity. To identify adiposity loci whose effects are modified by PA, we performed genome-wide interaction meta-analyses of BMI and BMI-adjusted waist circumference and waist-hip ratio from up to 200,452 adults of European (n = 180,423) or other ancestry (n = 20,029). We standardized PA by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable where, on average, 23% of participants were categorized as inactive and 77% as physically active. While we replicate the interaction with PA for the strongest known obesity-risk locus in the FTO gene, of which the effect is attenuated by ~30% in physically active individuals compared to inactive individuals, we do not identify additional loci that are sensitive to PA. In additional genome-wide meta-analyses adjusting for PA and interaction with PA, we identify 11 novel adiposity loci, suggesting that accounting for PA or other environmental factors that contribute to variation in adiposity may facilitate gene discovery. ; The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; the National Institutes of Health; or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Funding for this study was provided by the Aase and Ejner Danielsens Foundation; Academy of Finland (102318; 104781, 120315, 123885, 129619, 286284, 134309, 126925, 121584, 124282, 129378, 117787, 250207, 258753, 41071, 77299, 124243, 1114194, 24300796); Accare Center for Child and Adolescent Psychiatry; Action on Hearing Loss (G51); Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Agency for Health Care Policy Research (HS06516); Age UK Research into Ageing Fund; Åke Wiberg Foundation; ALF/LUA Research Grant in Gothenburg; ALFEDIAM; ALK-Abello´ A/S (Hørsholm, Denmark); American Heart Association (13POST16500011, 10SDG269004); Ardix Medical; Arthritis Research UK; Association Diabète Risque Vasculaire; AstraZeneca; Australian Associated Brewers; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496739, 552485, 552498); Avera Research Institute; Bayer Diagnostics; Becton Dickinson; Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI –NL, 184.021.007); Biocentrum Helsinki; Boston Obesity Nutrition Research Center (DK46200); British Heart Foundation (RG/10/12/28456, SP/04/002); Canada Foundation for Innovation; Canadian Institutes of Health Research (FRN-CCT-83028); Cancer Research UK; Cardionics; Center for Medical Systems Biology; Center of Excellence in Complex Disease Genetics and SALVECenter of Excellence in Genomics (EXCEGEN); Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government; City of Kuopio; Cohortes Santé TGIR; Contrat de Projets État-Région; Croatian Science Foundation (8875); Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation; Danish Council for Independent Research (DFF–1333-00124, DFF–1331-007308); Danish Diabetes Academy; Danish Medical Research Council; Department of Psychology and Education of the VU University Amsterdam; Diabetes Hilfs- und Forschungsfonds Deutschland; Dutch Brain Foundation; Dutch Ministry of Justice; Emil Aaltonen Foundation; Erasmus Medical Center; Erasmus University; Estonian Government (IUT20-60, IUT24-6); Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (3.2.0304.11-0312); European Commission (230374, 284167, 323195, 692145, FP7 EurHEALTHAgeing-277849, FP7 BBMRI-LPC 313010, nr 602633, HEALTH-F2-2008-201865-GEFOS, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, FP6 LSHM-CT-2004-005272, FP5 QLG2-CT-2002-01254, FP6 LSHG-CT-2006-01947, FP7 HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, FP7 279143, FP7 201668, FP7 305739, FP6 LSHG-CT-2006-018947, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, QLG1-CT-2001-01252); European Regional Development Fund; European Science Foundation (EuroSTRESS project FP-006, ESF, EU/QLRT-2001-01254); Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01ZZ9603, 01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403, 03ZIK012, 03IS2061A); Federal State of Mecklenburg - West Pomerania; Fédération Française de Cardiologie; Finnish Cultural Foundation; Finnish Diabetes Association; Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Heart Association; Food Standards Agency; Fondation de France; Fonds Santé; Genetic Association Information Network of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health; German Diabetes Association; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, 01ER1206, 01ER1507); German Research Council (SFB-1052, SPP 1629 TO 718/2-1); GlaxoSmithKline; Göran Gustafssons Foundation; Göteborg Medical Society; Health and Safety Executive; Heart Foundation of Northern Sweden; Icelandic Heart Association; Icelandic Parliament; Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust; INSERM, Réseaux en Santé Publique, Interactions entre les déterminants de la santé; Interreg IV Oberrhein Program (A28); Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance; Italian Ministry of Health (ICS110.1/RF97.71); John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation; Juho Vainio Foundation; King's College London; Kjell och Märta Beijers Foundation; Kuopio University Hospital; Kuopio, Tampere and Turku University Hospital Medical Funds (X51001); Leiden University Medical Center; Lilly; LMUinnovativ; Lundbeck Foundation; Lundberg Foundation; Medical Research Council of Canada; MEKOS Laboratories (Denmark); Merck Santé; Mid-Atlantic Nutrition Obesity Research Center (P30 DK72488); Ministère de l'Économie, de l'Innovation et des Exportations; Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports of the Netherlands; Ministry of Cultural Affairs of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Ministry of Education and Culture of Finland (627;2004-2011); Ministry of Education, Culture and Science of the Netherlands; MRC Human Genetics Unit; MRC-GlaxoSmithKline Pilot Programme Grant (G0701863); Municipality of Rotterdam; Netherlands Bioinformatics Centre (2008.024); Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging (050-060-810); Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (904-61-090, 985-10-002, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, Middelgroot-911-09-032, Spinozapremie 56-464-14192); Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (2010/31471/ZONMW); Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (10-000-1002, GB-MW 940-38-011, 100-001-004, 60-60600-97-118, 261-98-710, GB-MaGW 480-01-006, GB-MaGW 480-07-001, GB-MaGW 452-04-314, GB-MaGW 452-06-004, 175.010.2003.005, 175.010.2005.011, 481-08-013, 480-05-003, 911-03-012); Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam; NHS Foundation Trust; Novartis Pharmaceuticals; Novo Nordisk; Office National Interprofessionel des Vins; Paavo Nurmi Foundation; Påhlssons Foundation; Päivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation; Pierre Fabre; Republic of Croatia Ministry of Science, Education and Sport (108-1080315-0302); Research Centre for Prevention and Health, the Capital Region for Denmark; Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (014-93-015, RIDE2); Roche; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06); Sanofi-Aventis; Scottish Executive Health Department (CZD/16/6); Siemens Healthcare; Social Insurance Institution of Finland (4/26/2010); Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Société Francophone du Diabète; State of Bavaria; Stroke Association; Swedish Diabetes Association; Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20140543); Swedish Research Council (2015-03657); Swedish Medical Research Council (K2007-66X-20270-01-3, 2011-2354); Swedish Society for Medical Research; Swiss National Science Foundation (33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30-148401); Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation; The Marcus Borgström Foundation; The Royal Society; The Wellcome Trust (084723/Z/08/Z, 088869/B/09/Z); Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bangs Foundation; Topcon; Torsten and Ragnar Söderberg's Foundation; UK Department of Health; UK Diabetes Association; UK Medical Research Council (MC_U106179471, G0500539, G0600705, G0601966, G0700931, G1002319, K013351, MC_UU_12019/1); UK National Institute for Health Research BioResource Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre; UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre; UK National Institute for Health Research (RP-PG-0407-10371); Umeå University Career Development Award; United States – Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant (2011036); University Hospital Oulu (75617); University Medical Center Groningen; University of Tartu (SP1GVARENG); National Institutes of Health (AG13196, CA047988, HHSN268201100046C, HHSN268201100001C, HHSN268201100002C, HHSN268201100003C, HHSN268201100004C, HHSC271201100004C, HHSN268200900041C, HHSN268201300025C, HHSN268201300026C, HHSN268201300027C, HHSN268201300028C, HHSN268201300029C, HHSN268201500001I, HL36310, HG002651, HL034594, HL054457, HL054481, HL071981, HL084729, HL119443, HL126024, N01-AG12100, N01-AG12109, N01-HC25195, N01-HC55015, N01-HC55016, N01-HC55018, N01-HC55019, N01-HC55020, N01-HC55021, N01-HC55022, N01-HD95159, N01-HD95160, N01-HD95161, N01-HD95162, N01-HD95163, N01-HD95164, N01-HD95165, N01-HD95166, N01-HD95167, N01-HD95168, N01-HD95169, N01-HG65403, N02-HL64278, R01-HD057194, R01-HL087641, R01-HL59367, R01HL-086694, R01-HL088451, R24-HD050924, U01-HG-004402, HHSN268200625226C, UL1-RR025005, UL1-RR025005, UL1-TR-001079, UL1-TR-00040, AA07535, AA10248, AA11998, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AA14041, AA17688, DA12854, MH081802, MH66206, R01-D004215701A, R01-DK075787, R01-DK089256, R01-DK8925601, R01-HL088451, R01-HL117078, R01-DK062370, R01-DK072193, DK091718, DK100383, DK078616, 1Z01-HG000024, HL087660, HL100245, R01DK089256, 2T32HL007055-36, U01-HL072515-06, U01-HL84756, NIA-U01AG009740, RC2-AG036495, RC4-AG039029, R03 AG046389, 263-MA-410953, 263-MD-9164, 263-MD-821336, U01-HG004802, R37CA54281, R01CA63, P01CA33619, U01-CA136792, U01-CA98758, RC2-MH089951, MH085520, R01-D0042157-01A, MH081802, 1RC2-MH089951, 1RC2-MH089995, 1RL1MH08326801, U01-HG007376, 5R01-HL08767902, 5R01MH63706:02, HG004790, N01-WH22110, U01-HG007033, UM1CA182913, 24152, 32100-2, 32105-6, 32108-9, 32111-13, 32115, 32118-32119, 32122, 42107-26, 42129-32, 44221); USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (2007-35205-17883); Västra Götaland Foundation; Velux Foundation; Veterans Affairs (1 IK2 BX001823); Vleugels Foundation; VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO+, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam; Wellcome Trust (090532, 091551, 098051, 098381); Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO; and Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ; Peer Reviewed

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. ; Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).

Background: timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods: for countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings: global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation: scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3.3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-3.4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2.6 million per year (range 2.5-2.8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38.8 million (95% UI 37.6-40.4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1.8 million deaths (95% UI 1.7-1.9 million) in 2005, to 1.2 million deaths (1.1-1.3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

Background: Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods: Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings: Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation: Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.

Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.7-6.0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52.0% (95% UI 50.7-53.3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42.4% (41.3-43.6) to 2.6 million (2.6-2.7) neonatal deaths and 47.0% (35.1-57.0) to 2.1 million (1.8-2.5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3.0% (2.6-3.3), falling short of the 4.4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4.4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10.3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030.

Few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) account for environmental exposures, like smoking, potentially impacting the overall trait variance when investigating the genetic contribution to obesity-related traits. Here, we use GWAS data from 51,080 current smokers and 190,178 nonsmokers (87% European descent) to identify loci influencing BMI and central adiposity, measured as waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio both adjusted for BMI. We identify 23 novel genetic loci, and 9 loci with convincing evidence of gene-smoking interaction (GxSMK) on obesity-related traits. We show consistent direction of effect for all identified loci and significance for 18 novel and for 5 interaction loci in an independent study sample. These loci highlight novel biological functions, including response to oxidative stress, addictive behaviour, and regulatory functions emphasizing the importance of accounting for environment in genetic analyses. Our results suggest that tobacco smoking may alter the genetic susceptibility to overall adiposity and body fat distribution. ; A full list of acknowledgments appears in the Supplementary Note 4. Co-author A.J.M.d.C. recently passed away while this work was in process. This work was performed under the auspices of the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium. We acknowledge the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium for encouraging CHARGE studies to participate in this effort and for the contributions of CHARGE members to the analyses conducted for this research. Funding for this study was provided by the Aase and Ejner Danielsens Foundation; Academy of Finland (41071, 77299, 102318, 110413, 117787, 121584, 123885, 124243, 124282, 126925, 129378, 134309, 286284); Accare Center for Child and Adolescent Psychiatry; Action on Hearing Loss (G51); Agence Nationale de la 359 Recherche; Agency for Health Care Policy Research (HS06516); ALF/LUA research grant in Gothenburg; ALFEDIAM; ALK-Abelló A/S; Althingi; American Heart Association (13POST16500011); Amgen; Andrea and Charles Bronfman Philanthropies; Ardix Medical; Arthritis Research UK; Association Diabète Risque Vasculaire; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (241944, 339462, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389927, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496739, 552485, 552498); Avera Institute; Bayer Diagnostics; Becton Dickinson; BHF (RG/14/5/30893); Boston Obesity Nutrition Research Center (DK46200), Bristol-Myers Squibb; British Heart Foundation (RG/10/12/28456, RG2008/08, RG2008/014, SP/04/002); Medical Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRCN-CCT-83028); Cancer Research UK; Cardionics; Cavadis B.V., Center for Medical Systems Biology; Center of Excellence in Genomics; CFI; CIHR; City of Kuopio; CNAMTS; Cohortes Santé TGIR; Contrat de Projets État-Région; Croatian Science Foundation (8875); Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation; Danish Council for Independent Research (DFF-1333-00124, DFF-1331-00730B); County Council of Dalarna; Dalarna University; Danish Council for Strategic Research; Danish Diabetes Academy; Danish Medical Research Council; Department of Health, UK; Development Fund from the University of Tartu (SP1GVARENG); Diabetes Hilfs- und Forschungsfonds Deutschland; Diabetes UK; Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship; Donald W. Reynolds Foundation; Dr Robert Pfleger-Stiftung; Dutch Brain Foundation; Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation; Dutch Inter University Cardiology Institute; Dutch Kidney Foundation (E033); Dutch Ministry of Justice; the DynaHEALTH action No. 633595, Economic Structure Enhancing Fund of the Dutch Government; Else Kröner-Fresenius-Stiftung (2012_A147, P48/08//A11/08); Emil Aaltonen Foundation; Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam; Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Municipality of Rotterdam; Estonian Government (IUT20-60, IUT24-6); Estonian Research Roadmap through the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (3.2.0304.11-0312); European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant and 323195:SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC); European Regional Development Fund; European Science Foundation (EU/QLRT-2001-01254); European Commission (018947, 018996, 201668, 223004, 230374, 279143, 284167, 305739, BBMRI-LPC-313010, HEALTH-2011.2.4.2-2-EU-MASCARA, HEALTH-2011-278913, HEALTH-2011-294713-EPLORE, HEALTH-F2-2008-201865-GEFOS, HEALTH-F2-2013-601456, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, HEALTH-F4-2007-201550-HYPERGENES, HEALTH-F7-305507 HOMAGE, IMI/115006, LSHG-CT-2006-018947, LSHG-CT-2006-01947, LSHM-CT-2004-005272, LSHM-CT-2006-037697, LSHM-CT-2007-037273, QLG1-CT-2002-00896, QLG2-CT-2002-01254); Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403, 01ZZ9603, 03IS2061A, 03ZIK012); Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Fédération Française de Cardiologie; Finnish Cultural Foundation; Finnish Diabetes Association; Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Heart Association; Fondation Leducq; Food Standards Agency; Foundation for Strategic Research; French Ministry of Research; FRSQ; Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the NIH; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, 01ER1206, 01ER1507); GlaxoSmithKline; Greek General Secretary of Research and Technology; Göteborg Medical Society; Health and Safety Executive; Healthcare NHS Trust; Healthway; Western Australia; Heart Foundation of Northern Sweden; Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health; Hjartavernd; Ingrid Thurings Foundation; INSERM; InterOmics (PB05 MIUR-CNR); INTERREG IV Oberrhein Program (A28); Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN, 09.001); Italian Ministry of Health (ICS110.1/RF97.71); Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (FaReBio di Qualità); Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation; the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports, the Netherlands; J.D.E. and Catherine T, MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socioeconomic Status and Health; Juho Vainio Foundation; Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International; KfH Stiftung Präventivmedizin e.V.; King's College London; Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation; Kuopio University Hospital; Kuopio, Tampere and Turku University Hospital Medical Funds (X51001); La Fondation de France; Leenaards Foundation; Lilly; LMUinnovativ; Lundberg Foundation; Magnus Bergvall Foundation; MDEIE; Medical Research Council UK (G0000934, G0601966, G0700931, MC_U106179471, MC_UU_12019/1); MEKOS Laboratories; Merck Santé; Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, The Netherlands; Ministry of Cultural Affairs of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands; Ministry of Education and Culture of Finland (627;2004-2011); Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, The Netherlands; Ministry of Science, Education and Sport in the Republic of Croatia (108-1080315-0302); MRC centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology; MRC Human Genetics Unit; MRC-GlaxoSmithKline pilot programme (G0701863); MSD Stipend Diabetes; National Institute for Health Research; Netherlands Brain Foundation (F2013(1)-28); Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (CVON2011-19); Netherlands Genomics Initiative (050-060-810); Netherlands Heart Foundation (2001 D 032, NHS2010B280); Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) (56-464-14192, 60-60600-97-118, 100-001-004, 261-98-710, 400-05-717, 480-04-004, 480-05-003, 481-08-013, 904-61-090, 904-61-193, 911-11-025, 985-10-002, Addiction-31160008, BBMRI–NL 184.021.007, GB-MaGW 452-04-314, GB-MaGW 452-06-004, GB-MaGW 480-01-006, GB-MaGW 480-07-001, GB-MW 940-38-011, Middelgroot-911-09-032, NBIC/BioAssist/RK 2008.024, Spinozapremie 175.010.2003.005, 175.010.2007.006); Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam; NHS Foundation Trust; National Institutes of Health (1RC2MH089951, 1Z01HG000024, 24152, 263MD9164, 263MD821336, 2R01LM010098, 32100-2, 32122, 32108, 5K99HL130580-02, AA07535, AA10248, AA11998, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AA14041, AA17688, AG13196, CA047988, DA12854, DK56350, DK063491, DK078150, DK091718, DK100383, DK078616, ES10126, HG004790, HHSN268200625226C, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268201500001I, HHSN268201100046C, HHSN268201100001C, HHSN268201100002C, HHSN268201100003C, HHSN268201100004C, HHSN271201100004C, HL043851, HL45670, HL080467, HL085144, HL087660, HL054457, HL119443, HL118305, HL071981, HL034594, HL126024, HL130114, KL2TR001109, MH66206, MH081802, N01AG12100, N01HC55015, N01HC55016, N01C55018, N01HC55019, N01HC55020, N01HC55021, N01HC55022, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, N01HC95159, N01HC95160, N01HC95161, N01HC95162, N01HC95163, N01HC95164, N01HC95165, N01HC95166, N01HC95167, N01HC95168, N01HC95169, N01HG65403, N01WH22110, N02HL6‐4278, N01-HC-25195, P01CA33619, R01HD057194, R01HD057194, R01AG023629, R01CA63, R01D004215701A, R01DK075787, R01DK062370, R01DK072193, R01DK075787, R01DK089256, R01HL53353, R01HL59367, R01HL086694, R01HL087641, R01HL087652, R01HL103612, R01HL105756, R01HL117078, R01HL120393, R03 AG046389, R37CA54281, RC2AG036495, RC4AG039029, RPPG040710371, RR20649, TW008288, TW05596, U01AG009740, U01CA98758, U01CA136792, U01DK062418, U01HG004402, U01HG004802, U01HG007376, U01HL080295, UL1RR025005, UL1TR000040, UL1TR000124, UL1TR001079, 2T32HL007055-36, T32GM074905, HG002651, HL084729, N01-HC-25195, UM1CA182913); NIH, National Institute on Aging (Intramural funding, NO1-AG-1-2109); Northern Netherlands Collaboration of Provinces; Novartis Pharma; Novo Nordisk; Novo Nordisk Foundation; Nutricia Research Foundation (2016-T1); ONIVINS; Parnassia Bavo group; Pierre Fabre; Province of Groningen; Päivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation; Påhlssons Foundation; Paavo Nurmi Foundation; Radboud Medical Center Nijmegen; Research Centre for Prevention and Health, the Capital Region of Denmark; the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Research into Ageing; Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center; Roche; Royal Society; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06); Sanofi-Aventis; Scottish Government Health Directorates, Chief Scientist Office (CZD/16/6); Siemens Healthcare; Social Insurance Institution of Finland (4/26/2010); Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Société Francophone du 358 Diabète; State of Bavaria; Stiftelsen för Gamla Tjänarinnor; Stockholm County Council (560183, 592229); Strategic Cardiovascular and Diabetes Programmes of Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm County Council; Stroke Association; Swedish Diabetes Association; Swedish Diabetes Foundation (2013-024); Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197, 20150711); Swedish Research Council (0593, 8691, 2012-1397, 2012-1727, and 2012-2215); Swedish Society for Medical Research; Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Swiss National Science Foundation (3100AO-116323/1, 31003A-143914, 33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30-148401, 51RTP0_151019); Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation; Technology Foundation STW (11679); The Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen, Ministry of the Flemish Community (G.0880.13, G.0881.13); The Great Wine Estates of the Margaret River Region of Western Australia; Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bangs Foundation; Topcon; Tore Nilsson Foundation; Torsten and Ragnar Söderberg's Foundation; United States – Israel Binational Science Foundation (Grant 2011036), Umeå University; University Hospital of Regensburg; University of Groningen; University Medical Center Groningen; University of Michigan; University of Utrecht; Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) (b2011036); Velux Foundation; VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research; Västra Götaland Foundation; Wellcome Trust (068545, 076113, 079895, 084723, 088869, WT064890, WT086596, WT098017, WT090532, WT098051, 098381); Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO; Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation; and Åke Wiberg Foundation. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI); the National Institutes of Health (NIH); or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. ; Peer Reviewed

Acknowledgements A full list of acknowledgments appears in the Supplementary Note 4. Co-author A.J.M.d.C. recently passed away while this work was in process. This work was performed under the auspices of the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium. We acknowledge the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium for encouraging CHARGE studies to participate in this effort and for the contributions of CHARGE members to the analyses conducted for this research. Funding for this study was provided by the Aase and Ejner Danielsens Foundation; Academy of Finland (41071, 77299, 102318, 110413, 117787, 121584, 123885, 124243, 124282, 126925, 129378, 134309, 286284); Accare Center for Child and Adolescent Psychiatry; Action on Hearing Loss (G51); Agence Nationale de la 359 Recherche; Agency for Health Care Policy Research (HS06516); ALF/LUA research grant in Gothenburg; ALFEDIAM; ALK-Abelló A/S; Althingi; American Heart Association (13POST16500011); Amgen; Andrea and Charles Bronfman Philanthropies; Ardix Medical; Arthritis Research UK; Association Diabète Risque Vasculaire; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (241944, 339462, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389927, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496739, 552485, 552498); Avera Institute; Bayer Diagnostics; Becton Dickinson; BHF (RG/14/5/30893); Boston Obesity Nutrition Research Center (DK46200), Bristol-Myers Squibb; British Heart Foundation (RG/10/12/28456, RG2008/08, RG2008/014, SP/04/002); Medical Research Council of Canada; Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRCN-CCT-83028); Cancer Research UK; Cardionics; Cavadis B.V., Center for Medical Systems Biology; Center of Excellence in Genomics; CFI; CIHR; City of Kuopio; CNAMTS; Cohortes Santé TGIR; Contrat de Projets État-Région; Croatian Science Foundation (8875); Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation; Danish Council for Independent Research (DFF-1333-00124, DFF-1331-00730B); County Council of Dalarna; Dalarna University; Danish Council for Strategic Research; Danish Diabetes Academy; Danish Medical Research Council; Department of Health, UK; Development Fund from the University of Tartu (SP1GVARENG); Diabetes Hilfs- und Forschungsfonds Deutschland; Diabetes UK; Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship; Donald W. Reynolds Foundation; Dr Robert Pfleger-Stiftung; Dutch Brain Foundation; Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation; Dutch Inter University Cardiology Institute; Dutch Kidney Foundation (E033); Dutch Ministry of Justice; the DynaHEALTH action No. 633595, Economic Structure Enhancing Fund of the Dutch Government; Else Kröner-Fresenius-Stiftung (2012_A147, P48/08//A11/08); Emil Aaltonen Foundation; Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam; Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Municipality of Rotterdam; Estonian Government (IUT20-60, IUT24-6); Estonian Research Roadmap through the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (3.2.0304.11-0312); European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant and 323195:SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC); European Regional Development Fund; European Science Foundation (EU/QLRT-2001-01254); European Commission (018947, 018996, 201668, 223004, 230374, 279143, 284167, 305739, BBMRI-LPC-313010, HEALTH-2011.2.4.2-2-EU-MASCARA, HEALTH-2011-278913, HEALTH-2011-294713-EPLORE, HEALTH-F2-2008-201865-GEFOS, HEALTH-F2-2013-601456, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, HEALTH-F4-2007-201550-HYPERGENES, HEALTH-F7-305507 HOMAGE, IMI/115006, LSHG-CT-2006-018947, LSHG-CT-2006-01947, LSHM-CT-2004-005272, LSHM-CT-2006-037697, LSHM-CT-2007-037273, QLG1-CT-2002-00896, QLG2-CT-2002-01254); Faculty of Biology and Medicine of Lausanne; Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403, 01ZZ9603, 03IS2061A, 03ZIK012); Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Fédération Française de Cardiologie; Finnish Cultural Foundation; Finnish Diabetes Association; Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research; Finnish Heart Association; Fondation Leducq; Food Standards Agency; Foundation for Strategic Research; French Ministry of Research; FRSQ; Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the NIH; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, 01ER1206, 01ER1507); GlaxoSmithKline; Greek General Secretary of Research and Technology; Göteborg Medical Society; Health and Safety Executive; Healthcare NHS Trust; Healthway; Western Australia; Heart Foundation of Northern Sweden; Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health; Hjartavernd; Ingrid Thurings Foundation; INSERM; InterOmics (PB05 MIUR-CNR); INTERREG IV Oberrhein Program (A28); Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN, 09.001); Italian Ministry of Health (ICS110.1/RF97.71); Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (FaReBio di Qualità); Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation; the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports, the Netherlands; J.D.E. and Catherine T, MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socioeconomic Status and Health; Juho Vainio Foundation; Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International; KfH Stiftung Präventivmedizin e.V.; King's College London; Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation; Kuopio University Hospital; Kuopio, Tampere and Turku University Hospital Medical Funds (X51001); La Fondation de France; Leenaards Foundation; Lilly; LMUinnovativ; Lundberg Foundation; Magnus Bergvall Foundation; MDEIE; Medical Research Council UK (G0000934, G0601966, G0700931, MC_U106179471, MC_UU_12019/1); MEKOS Laboratories; Merck Santé; Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, The Netherlands; Ministry of Cultural Affairs of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands; Ministry of Education and Culture of Finland (627;2004-2011); Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, The Netherlands; Ministry of Science, Education and Sport in the Republic of Croatia (108-1080315-0302); MRC centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology; MRC Human Genetics Unit; MRC-GlaxoSmithKline pilot programme (G0701863); MSD Stipend Diabetes; National Institute for Health Research; Netherlands Brain Foundation (F2013(1)-28); Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (CVON2011-19); Netherlands Genomics Initiative (050-060-810); Netherlands Heart Foundation (2001 D 032, NHS2010B280); Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) (56-464-14192, 60-60600-97-118, 100-001-004, 261-98-710, 400-05-717, 480-04-004, 480-05-003, 481-08-013, 904-61-090, 904-61-193, 911-11-025, 985-10-002, Addiction-31160008, BBMRI–NL 184.021.007, GB-MaGW 452-04-314, GB-MaGW 452-06-004, GB-MaGW 480-01-006, GB-MaGW 480-07-001, GB-MW 940-38-011, Middelgroot-911-09-032, NBIC/BioAssist/RK 2008.024, Spinozapremie 175.010.2003.005, 175.010.2007.006); Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam; NHS Foundation Trust; National Institutes of Health (1RC2MH089951, 1Z01HG000024, 24152, 263MD9164, 263MD821336, 2R01LM010098, 32100-2, 32122, 32108, 5K99HL130580-02, AA07535, AA10248, AA11998, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AA14041, AA17688, AG13196, CA047988, DA12854, DK56350, DK063491, DK078150, DK091718, DK100383, DK078616, ES10126, HG004790, HHSN268200625226C, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268201500001I, HHSN268201100046C, HHSN268201100001C, HHSN268201100002C, HHSN268201100003C, HHSN268201100004C, HHSN271201100004C, HL043851, HL45670, HL080467, HL085144, HL087660, HL054457, HL119443, HL118305, HL071981, HL034594, HL126024, HL130114, KL2TR001109, MH66206, MH081802, N01AG12100, N01HC55015, N01HC55016, N01C55018, N01HC55019, N01HC55020, N01HC55021, N01HC55022, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, N01HC95159, N01HC95160, N01HC95161, N01HC95162, N01HC95163, N01HC95164, N01HC95165, N01HC95166, N01HC95167, N01HC95168, N01HC95169, N01HG65403, N01WH22110, N02HL6‐4278, N01-HC-25195, P01CA33619, R01HD057194, R01HD057194, R01AG023629, R01CA63, R01D004215701A, R01DK075787, R01DK062370, R01DK072193, R01DK075787, R01DK089256, R01HL53353, R01HL59367, R01HL086694, R01HL087641, R01HL087652, R01HL103612, R01HL105756, R01HL117078, R01HL120393, R03 AG046389, R37CA54281, RC2AG036495, RC4AG039029, RPPG040710371, RR20649, TW008288, TW05596, U01AG009740, U01CA98758, U01CA136792, U01DK062418, U01HG004402, U01HG004802, U01HG007376, U01HL080295, UL1RR025005, UL1TR000040, UL1TR000124, UL1TR001079, 2T32HL007055-36, T32GM074905, HG002651, HL084729, N01-HC-25195, UM1CA182913); NIH, National Institute on Aging (Intramural funding, NO1-AG-1-2109); Northern Netherlands Collaboration of Provinces; Novartis Pharma; Novo Nordisk; Novo Nordisk Foundation; Nutricia Research Foundation (2016-T1); ONIVINS; Parnassia Bavo group; Pierre Fabre; Province of Groningen; Päivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation; Påhlssons Foundation; Paavo Nurmi Foundation; Radboud Medical Center Nijmegen; Research Centre for Prevention and Health, the Capital Region of Denmark; the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Research into Ageing; Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center; Roche; Royal Society; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06); Sanofi-Aventis; Scottish Government Health Directorates, Chief Scientist Office (CZD/16/6); Siemens Healthcare; Social Insurance Institution of Finland (4/26/2010); Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; Société Francophone du 358 Diabète; State of Bavaria; Stiftelsen för Gamla Tjänarinnor; Stockholm County Council (560183, 592229); Strategic Cardiovascular and Diabetes Programmes of Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm County Council; Stroke Association; Swedish Diabetes Association; Swedish Diabetes Foundation (2013-024); Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research; Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197, 20150711); Swedish Research Council (0593, 8691, 2012-1397, 2012-1727, and 2012-2215); Swedish Society for Medical Research; Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics; Swiss National Science Foundation (3100AO-116323/1, 31003A-143914, 33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30-148401, 51RTP0_151019); Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation; Technology Foundation STW (11679); The Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen, Ministry of the Flemish Community (G.0880.13, G.0881.13); The Great Wine Estates of the Margaret River Region of Western Australia; Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bangs Foundation; Topcon; Tore Nilsson Foundation; Torsten and Ragnar Söderberg's Foundation; United States – Israel Binational Science Foundation (Grant 2011036), Umeå University; University Hospital of Regensburg; University of Groningen; University Medical Center Groningen; University of Michigan; University of Utrecht; Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) (b2011036); Velux Foundation; VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research; Västra Götaland Foundation; Wellcome Trust (068545, 076113, 079895, 084723, 088869, WT064890, WT086596, WT098017, WT090532, WT098051, 098381); Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO; Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation; and Åke Wiberg Foundation. The views expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI); the National Institutes of Health (NIH); or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

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Background: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.

Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. ; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Barbora de Courten is supported by a National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (100864). Ai Koyanagi's work is supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R + D + I and funded by the ISCIII —General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research—and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). Alberto Ortiz was supported by Spanish Government (Instituto de Salud Carlos III RETIC REDINREN RD16/0019 FEDER funds). Ashish Awasthi acknowledges funding support from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India through INSPIRE Faculty scheme Boris Bikbov has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703226. Boris Bikbov acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Panniyammakal Jeemon acknowledges support from the clinical and public health intermediate fellowship from the Wellcome Trust and Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2015–20). Job F M van Boven was supported by the Department of Clinical Pharmacy & Pharmacology of the University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Netherlands. Olanrewaju Oladimeji is an African Research Fellow hosted by Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), South Africa and he also has honorary affiliations with Walter Sisulu University (WSU), Eastern Cape, South Africa and School of Public Health, University of Namibia (UNAM), Namibia. He is indeed grateful for support from HSRC, WSU and UNAM. EUI is supported in part by the South African National Research Foundation (NRF UID: 86003). Ulrich Mueller acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study grant No 01ER1511/D, Gabrielle B Britton is supported by Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación and Sistema Nacional de Investigación de Panamá. Giuseppe Remuzzi acknowledges that the work related to this paper has been done on behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Behzad Heibati would like to acknowledge Air pollution Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS), Tehran, Iran. Syed Aljunid acknowledges the National University of Malaysia for providing the approval to participate in this GBD Project. Azeem Majeed and Imperial College London are grateful for support from the Northwest London National Insititute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research & Care. Tambe Ayuk acknowledges the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies for office space provided. José das Neves was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). João Fernandes gratefully acknowledges funding from FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (grant number UID/Multi/50016/2013). Jan-Walter De Neve was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Kebede Deribe is funded by a Wellcome Trust Intermediate Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (201900). Kazem Rahimi was supported by grants from the Oxford Martin School, the NIHR Oxford BRC and the RCUK Global Challenges Research Fund. Laith J Abu-Raddad acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 9-040-3-008) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-IHME effort. Liesl Zuhlke is funded by the national research foundation of South Africa and the Medical Research Council of South Africa. Monica Cortinovis acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Chuanhua Yu acknowleges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81773552 and grant number 81273179) Norberto Perico acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group. Charles Shey Wiysonge's work is supported by the South African Medical Research Council and the National Research Foundation of South Africa (grant numbers 106035 and 108571). John J McGrath is supported by grant APP1056929 from the John Cade Fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship). Quique Bassat is an ICREA (Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies) research professor at ISGlobal. Richard G White is funded by the UK MRC and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement that is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MR/P002404/1), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium: OPP1084276/OPP1135288, CORTIS: OPP1137034/OPP1151915, Vaccines: OPP1160830), and UNITAID (4214-LSHTM-Sept15; PO 8477-0-600). Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. Mihajlo Jakovljevic acknowleges contribution from the Serbian Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (grant OI 175 014). Shariful Islam is funded by a Senior Fellowship from Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University and received career transition grants from High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. Sonia Saxena is funded by various grants from the NIHR. Stefanos Tyrovolas was supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture, the Sara Borrell postdoctoral program (reference number CD15/00019 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII–Spain) and the Fondos Europeo de Desarrollo Regional. Stefanos was awarded with a 6 months visiting fellowship funding at IHME from M-AES (reference no. MV16/00035 from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III). S Vittal Katikreddi was funded by a NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the MRC (MC_UU_12017/13 & MC_ UU_12017/15) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13 & SPHSU15). Traolach S Brugha has received funding from NHS Digital UK to collect data used in this study. The work of Hamid Badali was financially supported by Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran. The work of Stefan Lorkowski is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, Grant agreement number 01EA1411A). Mariam Molokhia's research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. We also thank the countless individuals who have contributed to GBD 2016 in various capacities. ; Peer reviewed