A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact of Hurricane-Disrupted Oil Refinery Operations Utilizing Secondary Data
In: Group decision and negotiation, Band 26, Heft 6, S. 1125-1144
ISSN: 1572-9907
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In: Group decision and negotiation, Band 26, Heft 6, S. 1125-1144
ISSN: 1572-9907
In: Growth and change: a journal of urban and regional policy, Band 39, Heft 4, S. 548-572
ISSN: 1468-2257
ABSTRACTIn previous research, the economic impacts of temporary shutdowns of the Los Angeles–Long Beach harbors were simulated after a hypothetical terrorist attack, applying the National Interstate Economic Model to estimate state‐by‐state as well as interindustry impacts. However, the unpredictable characteristic of terrorist attacks might not be applicable to the case of a ports shutdown such as the one caused by the lockout of September–October 2002. Market participants can be expected to have contingency plans based on anticipations of a strike or shutdown. Can we identify any of these in terms of the use of alternate ports, in terms of alternate modes or even alternate time periods? The purpose of this study is to examine these questions. The approach is elaborated by testing for the possible effects of trade diversion to other West Coast ports, transportation modes, and intertemporal substitutions. We use data from WISERTrade describing commodity‐specific trade for the major West Coast ports before, during, and after the 11‐day shutdown of the fall of 2002. Shippers' ability to divert trade is a key ingredient in the economy's ability to withstand attacks and disruptions. The work estimates the impacts on 47 industrial sectors across 50 states (and the District of Columbia).
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 27, Heft 3, S. 505-512
ISSN: 1539-6924
We use data on air passenger travel expenditures per passenger as well as statistical analysis of the air traffic lost for the two‐year aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attacks to estimate direct demand losses for air transportation services. These are used along with a national input‐output model to assess the full costs of these losses. Depending on assumptions made, the full losses to the U.S. economy were between $214.3 and $420.5 billion. These estimates are similar to those from other studies of such an event, and suggest that the high costs of effective countermeasures may be justified.
In: Peace economics, peace science and public policy, Band 15, Heft 2
ISSN: 1554-8597
In: WMD Terrorism, S. 389-406
In: Revue économique, Band 25, Heft 5, S. 867
ISSN: 1950-6694
In: The economic history review, Band 20, Heft 3, S. 555-636
ISSN: 1468-0289
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