Suchergebnisse

The 2007-08 and 2010-11 food crises, and especially their consequences on the poorest households, have led to a renewed interest for food price stabilisation. This thesis investigates three issues about food price volatility: the role of state trading enterprises for food security; the impact of information accuracy regarding natural or economic shocks on food price variations; and the consequences of increased transparency on international markets following the G20 summit of 2011. We derive public policies conclusions regarding trade policies and improvements of information systems. We also bring forward a methodological tool that is hardly applied to agricultural economics: imperfect information models. The applications presented in this thesis prove the relevance of this tool for analysing many agricultural issues. ; Les crises alimentaires de 2007-08 et 2010-11, et notamment leurs conséquences sur les ménages les plus pauvres, ont suscité un renouveau d'intérêt pour les politiques de stabilisation des prix. Cette thèse analyse trois aspects de la question de la volatilité des prix agricoles : le rôle des entreprises commerciales d'Etat pour la sécurité alimentaire ; l'effet de la qualité de l'information concernant des chocs naturels ou économiques sur les variations de prix agricoles ; et les conséquences de l'accroissement de la transparence sur les marchés internationaux engendrée entre autres par la mise en place de nouveaux systèmes d'information suite au G20 de 2011. Outre ses conclusions en termes de politiques publiques sur les politiques commerciales ou sur l'amélioration des systèmes d'information, cette thèse met en avant un outil rarement appliqué à l'économie agricole : les modèles d'information imparfaite. Les applications présentées ici prouvent la pertinence de cet outil et l'intérêt de son utilisation pour répondre à de nombreuses problématiques d'économie agricole.

The 2007-08 and 2010-11 food crises, and especially their consequences on the poorest households, have led to a renewed interest for food price stabilisation. This thesis investigates three issues about food price volatility: the role of state trading enterprises for food security; the impact of information accuracy regarding natural or economic shocks on food price variations; and the consequences of increased transparency on international markets following the G20 summit of 2011. We derive public policies conclusions regarding trade policies and improvements of information systems. We also bring forward a methodological tool that is hardly applied to agricultural economics: imperfect information models. The applications presented in this thesis prove the relevance of this tool for analysing many agricultural issues. ; Les crises alimentaires de 2007-08 et 2010-11, et notamment leurs conséquences sur les ménages les plus pauvres, ont suscité un renouveau d'intérêt pour les politiques de stabilisation des prix. Cette thèse analyse trois aspects de la question de la volatilité des prix agricoles : le rôle des entreprises commerciales d'Etat pour la sécurité alimentaire ; l'effet de la qualité de l'information concernant des chocs naturels ou économiques sur les variations de prix agricoles ; et les conséquences de l'accroissement de la transparence sur les marchés internationaux engendrée entre autres par la mise en place de nouveaux systèmes d'information suite au G20 de 2011. Outre ses conclusions en termes de politiques publiques sur les politiques commerciales ou sur l'amélioration des systèmes d'information, cette thèse met en avant un outil rarement appliqué à l'économie agricole : les modèles d'information imparfaite. Les applications présentées ici prouvent la pertinence de cet outil et l'intérêt de son utilisation pour répondre à de nombreuses problématiques d'économie agricole.

The 2007-08 and 2010-11 food crises, and especially their consequences on the poorest households, have led to a renewed interest for food price stabilisation. This thesis investigates three issues about food price volatility: the role of state trading enterprises for food security; the impact of information accuracy regarding natural or economic shocks on food price variations; and the consequences of increased transparency on international markets following the G20 summit of 2011. We derive public policies conclusions regarding trade policies and improvements of information systems. We also bring forward a methodological tool that is hardly applied to agricultural economics: imperfect information models. The applications presented in this thesis prove the relevance of this tool for analysing many agricultural issues. ; Les crises alimentaires de 2007-08 et 2010-11, et notamment leurs conséquences sur les ménages les plus pauvres, ont suscité un renouveau d'intérêt pour les politiques de stabilisation des prix. Cette thèse analyse trois aspects de la question de la volatilité des prix agricoles : le rôle des entreprises commerciales d'Etat pour la sécurité alimentaire ; l'effet de la qualité de l'information concernant des chocs naturels ou économiques sur les variations de prix agricoles ; et les conséquences de l'accroissement de la transparence sur les marchés internationaux engendrée entre autres par la mise en place de nouveaux systèmes d'information suite au G20 de 2011. Outre ses conclusions en termes de politiques publiques sur les politiques commerciales ou sur l'amélioration des systèmes d'information, cette thèse met en avant un outil rarement appliqué à l'économie agricole : les modèles d'information imparfaite. Les applications présentées ici prouvent la pertinence de cet outil et l'intérêt de son utilisation pour répondre à de nombreuses problématiques d'économie agricole.

National governments dislike food price volatility to varying extents. When some of them use trade measures to insulate their domestic market from international food price fluctuations, that volatility is amplified. This in turn prompts more countries to follow suit. However, when both food-exporting and food-importing countries so respond, each group becomes less capable of preventing domestic price volatility. This paper examines empirically the extent of insulation in both groups of countries, and also in high-income versus developing countries. It also provides an estimate of the contribution of such government actions to international food price spikes. A multilateral agreement to limit such government responses would reduce the need for all countries to so intervene, and allow more-efficient generic social protection policies to deal with the most vulnerable cases. ; The author is grateful for financial support from the Australian Research Council, the World Bank, and Australia's Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation.

National governments dislike food price volatility to varying extents. When some of them use trade measures to insulate their domestic market from international food price fluctuations, that volatility is amplified. This in turn prompts more countries to follow suit. However, when both food-exporting and food-importing countries so respond, each group becomes less capable of preventing domestic price volatility. This paper examines empirically the extent of insulation in both groups of countries, and also in high-income versus developing countries. It also provides an estimate of the contribution of such government actions to international food price spikes. A multilateral agreement to limit such government responses would reduce the need for all countries to so intervene, and allow more-efficient generic social protection policies to deal with the most vulnerable cases. ; The author is grateful for financial support from the Australian Research Council, the World Bank, and Australia's Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation.

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase food production risks and decrease productivity when agriculture specializes. Under free trade, they reduce the specialization in food production that otherwise prevails in a Ricardian two-country setup. Pesticides allow farmers to reduce biodiversity effects , but they are damaging for the environment and for human health. When regulating farming practices under free trade, governments face a trade-off: they are tempted to restrict the use of pesticides compared to under autarky because domestic consumption partly relies on imports and thus depends less on them, but they also want to preserve the competitiveness of their agricultural sector on international markets. Contrary to the environmental race-to-the-bottom tenet, we show that at the symmetric equilibrium under free trade restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries, and, depending on the intensity of the biodiversity effects, of some or all of the crops that are country-specific.

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase food production risks and decrease productivity when agriculture specializes. Under free trade, they reduce the specialization in food production that otherwise prevails in a Ricardian two-country setup. Pesticides allow farmers to reduce biodiversity effects , but they are damaging for the environment and for human health. When regulating farming practices under free trade, governments face a trade-off: they are tempted to restrict the use of pesticides compared to under autarky because domestic consumption partly relies on imports and thus depends less on them, but they also want to preserve the competitiveness of their agricultural sector on international markets. Contrary to the environmental race-to-the-bottom tenet, we show that at the symmetric equilibrium under free trade restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries, and, depending on the intensity of the biodiversity effects, of some or all of the crops that are country-specific.

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase food production risks and decrease productivity when agriculture specializes. Under free trade, they reduce the specialization in food production that otherwise prevails in a Ricardian two-country setup. Pesticides allow farmers to reduce biodiversity effects , but they are damaging for the environment and for human health. When regulating farming practices under free trade, governments face a trade-off: they are tempted to restrict the use of pesticides compared to under autarky because domestic consumption partly relies on imports and thus depends less on them, but they also want to preserve the competitiveness of their agricultural sector on international markets. Contrary to the environmental race-to-the-bottom tenet, we show that at the symmetric equilibrium under free trade restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries, and, depending on the intensity of the biodiversity effects, of some or all of the crops that are country-specific.

The approach taken in this report reflects the view of the collaborating international organizations that price volatility and its effects on food security is a complex issue with many dimensions, agricultural and non-agricultural, short and long-term, with highly differentiated impacts on consumers and producers in developed and developing countries. The report begins with a discussion of volatility and of the ways in which volatility affects countries, businesses, consumers and farmers. Lessons learned from recent experiences are briefly reviewed as well as the factors determining likely levels of volatility in future. This report offers suggestions for a systematic and internationally coordinated response building on the lessons learned as a result of the 2007-2008crisis. It is important to distinguish between policy options designed to prevent or reduce price volatility and those designed to mitigate its consequences. Both types of intervention are explored in detail. Scope is identified for actions at individual, national, regional and international level. Some would help to avert a threat; others are in the nature of contingency plans to improve readiness, while still others address long-term issues of resilience. Finally, the report explores mechanisms of international cooperation to implement this report's recommendations and to monitor progress.

High and volatile food prices pose a significant policy challenge around the world, and an understanding of the dynamics of food price inflation and volatility is essential in designing appropriate policy responses. Using the panel data for 72 countries from 2000 to 2011, the paper assesses the international transmission of food price inflation and volatilities as well as the effects of various internal and external factors on domestic food price inflation and volatility. The paper offers evidence in support of the international transmission of food price inflation and volatility. Specifically, the paper finds that the domestic food price inflation in Asia is strongly associated with the lagged value of global food price inflation (using the FAO food price index), while volatility spillovers from global to domestic food prices are rather contemporaneous. The paper also finds that both national food price inflation rates and volatilities are strongly associated with both intra- and extra- regional food price inflation rates and volatilities, respectively. The findings also suggest that higher economic growth rates, greater shares of food in merchandise imports, and smaller increases in the share of food in merchandise imports lead to lower domestic food price inflation. An appreciation of local currency, greater political stability, and higher income level are also found to lower domestic food price inflation. On the other hand, higher economic growth rates lead to lower volatilities of food prices.

Food commodity prices have recently increased sharply and become more volatile, highlighting greater uncertainty in markets and threatening global food security. High fuel prices combined with legislative mandates have increased biofuel production raising the average cost of food on the global market and particularly in developing countries and established a link between crude oil and agricultural prices. We investigate the role of biofuels in explaining increased volatility in food commodities. Multivariate GARCH models and volatility decompositions are estimated on grains and crude oil daily prices over a twelve-year sample from 2000-2011. We find increases in correlations and co-movements between grains and crude oils prices after 2006 and particularly in 2008 when crude oil prices were high. Increased volatility in grains during the 2008-09 spike was largely due to shocks transmitted from crude oil to grains especially corn, wheat and soybean prices.