Suchergebnisse

This article analyses the logics sustaining votes for François Bayrou during the French 2007 presidential election. From data of electoral polls of the Cevipof, the sociology and the values of this electorate are described. Both indicate that votes for Bayrou were more anchored in the left than ever before. However, they are still "middle of the road" between left and right on issues such as economic interventionism. A typology has been computed. It shows the numerical importance of voters with a left wing profile who are more numerous than the "liberals from the right" and the "conservative". Finally, regressions on the pool of potential voters of Bayrou shed light on the effect of the image of candidates but also on the effect of traditional political allegiances. ; Cet article s'emploie à analyser les ressorts du vote Bayrou lors du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle de 2007. À partir des données de sondages de deux enquêtes du Cevipof, la sociologie et les valeurs de cet électorat sont détaillées. Son « virage à gauche » apparaît nettement, même si, sur les thèmes économiques par exemple, il continue à représenter effectivement un entre-deux, entre gauche et droite modérées. Une typologie permet de mettre en lumière ainsi l'importance numérique des électeurs de Bayrou ayant un profil de gauche, plus nombreux que les « libéraux de droite » et les « conservateurs ». Enfin, une analyse de régression sur la cristallisation du vote Bayrou parmi son électorat potentiel démontre la portée de l'image des candidats, mais également des affiliations politiques traditionnelles.

This article analyses the logics sustaining votes for François Bayrou during the French 2007 presidential election. From data of electoral polls of the Cevipof, the sociology and the values of this electorate are described. Both indicate that votes for Bayrou were more anchored in the left than ever before. However, they are still "middle of the road" between left and right on issues such as economic interventionism. A typology has been computed. It shows the numerical importance of voters with a left wing profile who are more numerous than the "liberals from the right" and the "conservative". Finally, regressions on the pool of potential voters of Bayrou shed light on the effect of the image of candidates but also on the effect of traditional political allegiances. ; Cet article s'emploie à analyser les ressorts du vote Bayrou lors du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle de 2007. À partir des données de sondages de deux enquêtes du Cevipof, la sociologie et les valeurs de cet électorat sont détaillées. Son « virage à gauche » apparaît nettement, même si, sur les thèmes économiques par exemple, il continue à représenter effectivement un entre-deux, entre gauche et droite modérées. Une typologie permet de mettre en lumière ainsi l'importance numérique des électeurs de Bayrou ayant un profil de gauche, plus nombreux que les « libéraux de droite » et les « conservateurs ». Enfin, une analyse de régression sur la cristallisation du vote Bayrou parmi son électorat potentiel démontre la portée de l'image des candidats, mais également des affiliations politiques traditionnelles.

Abstract
This paper provides causal evidence on how political parties can sway voters at scale in nascent electoral democracies. We collect novel data on expressway construction by the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and use province-by-year variation in construction to show that votes for the Justice and Development Party increased in response to the expressways. The estimates imply that the expressways increased the Justice and Development Party's vote share by 4.8 percentage points—a third of the increase from 2002 to 2011. We provide evidence that the visibility and competence signalled by the expressway expansion, and not increased local economic growth, drove increased vote shares.

Farmers' vote now tends to be locked into the definition of a homogeneous vote for the right. This article, using techniques of electoral sociology, seeks to demonstrate, by means of an 'ecological' analysis, the heterogeneity and plurality of 'agricultural' electoral behaviour in France on the basis of socio-demographic data and the results of the 2007 presidential elections. Two other types of variables are tested, agricultural guidelines and religious practices in the territories concerned. This work gives a mixed look at the issue of the agricultural vote and calls for additional work on local configurations. ; International audience Agricultural voting is defined as a homogenous and right-wing vote. Based on electoral sociology techniques, this article tries to demonstrate by an ecological analysis the heterogeneity and plurality of the "agricultural" voting behaviors. It deals with socio-demographic data and results from the 2007 presidential election in France. Two more types of variables are tested, the technical-commercials orientations and the religious behaviors in the studied territories. This work promotes a contrasted posture regarding the agricultural voting question. Thus it underlines the necessity of additional studies on local configurations. ; Farmers' vote now tends to be locked into the definition of a homogeneous vote for the right. This article, using techniques of electoral sociology, seeks to demonstrate, by means of an 'ecological' analysis, the heterogeneity and plurality of 'agricultural' electoral behaviour in France on the basis of socio-demographic data and the results of the 2007 presidential elections. Two other types of variables are tested, agricultural guidelines and religious practices in the territories concerned. This work gives a mixed look at the issue of the agricultural vote and calls for additional work on local configurations. ; Le vote des agriculteurs tend aujourd'hui à être enfermé dans la définition d'un vote homogène pour la droite. Cet article, mobilisant des ...