Suchergebnisse

Recent major spills on European coasts have highlighted the primary policy relevance for the EU of oil spills. This paper assesses the risks related to carrying oil to the EU along the route from the Russian Black Sea coast to Sicily, Italy (one of the most congested and strategically relevant European import routes). We develop a methodology based on Fault Tree Analysis, and we apply it to the most likely causes of an oil spill. We couple the resulting probabilities with data on expected spill size, types of oil carried and cleanup costs, to estimate expected costs for cleanup and loss of cargo. The route analysed appears to be a risky one; there is a "high" to "very high" risk of a spill along this route. The Turkish Straits turn out to be the major danger point; however, there is no obvious hierarchy amongst the other sites along the route.

The article contributes to the debate about the emergence of a European strategic culture to underpin a European Security and Defence Policy. Noting both conceptual and empirical weaknesses in the literature, the article disaggregates the concept of strategic culture and focuses on four types of norms concerning the means and ends for the use of force. The study argues that national strategic cultures are less resistant to change than commonly thought and that they have been subject to three types of learning pressures since 1989: changing threat perceptions, institutional socialization, and mediatized crisis learning. The combined effect of these mechanisms would be a process of convergence with regard to strategic norms prevalent in current EU countries. If the outlined hypotheses can be substantiated by further research the implications for ESDP are positive, especially if the EU acts cautiously in those cases which involve norms that are not yet sufficiently shared across countries.

Since the 1990s, there has been considerable debate about the feasibility & desirability of establishing Euro-parties as a way to allow voters in European Union member states to express their opinions regarding EU policy. The idea is not new, dating back to the 1970s when three 'transnational party federations' were established in expectation of their necessity in an EC-level party political democracy: the Confederation of Socialist Parties of the EC, the Federation of Liberal & Democratic Parties of the EC, & the European People's Party, which federated the Christian Democratic parties. However, the federations never gained a sustainable level of power. The history of this effort is recounted, demonstrating the federations', & subsequently the parties', membership, organization, & systemic functionality. A mix of two models of party-based democracy is suggested to be the most viable political party system for the EU today: European domestic party systems & the American-style competitive system. Tables, References. J. Stanton

The countries in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) have an alarming potential for developing & deploying weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Efforts to control WMDs in this region are complicated by the diversity of regional subsystems, formal & informal ties between EMP & other regions, strategic inequities within the EMP, & fundamental differences in security policy & philosophy among EMP members. WMDs are likely to be used when major political conflicts are involved & when there is a considerable discrepancy between the weapons capabilities of different states. The European Union (EU) should set the security agenda for the entire Euro-Mediterranean region, with the goal of gradually removing WMDs from the area. After achieving strategic equilibrium among EMP members, the EU could proceed toward the implementation of Euro-Mediterranean peace processes & regional security guarantees. The major goal should be guaranteeing stability through strategic equilibrium, preparatory to the eventual removal of all WMDs from the Middle East. A. Funderburg

This paper aims to identify and assess the main items in the strategy followed by the EU and its member states on the externalisation of their asylum function. First, it analyses the European harmonisation of the return to safe third countries and to countries of first asylum, which is carried out by means of readmission agreements. Second, it refers to the strategies defined by the Hague and the Stockholm programs concerning the External Aspects of the European Union Asylum Policy, on the detention centres for illegal immigrants abroad, and on the proposals for delocalisation of asylum applications processing centres beyond the EU borders. Finally, this paper considers whether the strategy of externalisation of the function of asylum sometimes lacks legitimacy, and to what extent there is a fair balance between the interests of the states and the protection of the human rights of refugees and asylum seekers.

"The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s resulted in a transition to fluctuating rather than fixed currency system. This brought sterling into the turmoil of the world currency markets, and by the end of the 1970s, sterling had quietly ended its role as an international currency. Sterling-dollar diplomacy collapsed, bringing to an end what had hitherto been considered Britain's prime relationship.Britain and European Monetary Cooperation, 1964-1979 provides a unique perspective on these events, shedding light on the complexities of the historical context of British monetary diplomacy and exploring the country's attempt at a European approach to sterling in the 1960s and '70s. The book describes the political and economic approach Britain took at the turn of the 1970s, and explains how the country became restricted by the burden of the sterling balances. In this book, the author illustrates how these developments offered opportunity for both cooperation and conflict in the light of monetary diplomacy. He demonstrates how Britain's struggle to achieve exchange rate stability, twinned with controversy over European Economic Community membership, finally prompted serious reconsideration of economic policy-making. This book challenges the commonly-held perception of the decline of sterling, and explains that, although Britain's attempt at a European approach failed, the decline of the currency was more complicated than a 'managed decline'"--

The allocation of emissions entitlements across countries is the single most controversial issue in international climate policy. Extreme positions within the policy debate range from entitlement based on current emission patterns (CEP) to equal-per-capita (EPC) allocations.Convergence (COV) from an initial CEP allocation towards EPC emission rights represents a reconciliation of the two. This paper maintains that the acceptability of alternative entitlement schemes depends on their implications for economic welfare and uses a dynamic multi-region general equilibrium model for a comparative economic assessment of the above allocation rules. We find welfare implications for the varius regions to be strongly influenced by changes in the terms of trade. Especially, regions may experience considerable welfare losses even under entitlement schemes which impose no binding emission constraint on them. Among the arrangements examined, COV cum emissions trading stands out for offering the developing countries substantial incentives for paticipation in the international greenhouse gas abatement effort without imposing excessive burdens on the industrialized countries.

Chapter 1: The role of the Belt and Road Initiative in China's international relations Introduction: the complex and multifaceted rise of China The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's 'new silk roads' Reactions to the BRI as frames of interpretation Developing a theoretical-methodological approach for the Belt and Road Organisation and contribution of the book References Chapter 2: Theorising the Belt and Road Initiative 2.1 Introduction: how to theorise the BRI's complexity? 2.2 China's flexible, syncretic approach to policy-making in a complex world: implications for the BRI 2.3 Theory 1: Tang Shiping's social evolution paradigm (SEP) 2.4 Theory 2: Neo-Gramscian hegemony 2.5 Theory 3: Offensive mercantilism 2.6 Complex eclecticism: a theoretical-methodological framework for analysing the BRI below the macro-level Conclusion References Chapter 3: Complex eclecticism 3.1 Introduction: why complex eclecticism? 3.2 Sil and Katzenstein's analytic eclecticism: strengths and weaknesses 3.3 International relations (IR) theoretical schools: mainstream, non-mainstream and non-Western 3.4 Moving from inter-paradigm debates to conceptual toolkits 3.5 Complexity theory / complexity thinking (CT) 3.6 Incompleteness and difficulty: an impasse or a way forward for IR theory? 3.7 The problem of complex systems in IR 3.8 An outline of CT's conceptual toolkit 3.8.1 Nonlinearity / sensitivity to initial parameters 3.8.2 Feedback loops 3.8.3 Emergence / self-organisation 3.8.4 Tipping points / edge of chaos 3.8.5 Black swans 3.8.6 Path dependence 3.9 Conclusion: combining complexity and eclecticism to analyse the BRI References Chapter 4: Applying complex eclecticism to the Belt and Road Initiative 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Interdependence, institutions and non-state actors 4.3 Power, states and anarchy 4.4 Norms, ideas and intersubjectivity 4.5 Non-mainstream concepts: harmony of interests / world society / relationalism / patriarchal authoritarianism / economic inequality / natural environment 4.6 Complexity theory / complexity thinking (CT) 4.7 Conclusion References Chapter 5: The characteristics of the Belt and Road Initiative 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The emerging characteristics of the Belt and Road Initiative 5.2.1 The Belt and Road is supposed to encompass over 60 countries in Asia and Europe 5.2.2 The Belt and Road is intended to improve connectivity across Eurasia, primarily by focusing on improving transport and energy infrastructure, with the other stated goals probably being subsidiary 5.2.3 The Belt and Road contains two main routes, the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) 5.2.4 The Belt and Road contains sub-projects 5.2.5 The Belt and Road is a continuation of previous official Chinese government policies 5.2.6 The BRI is Xi Jinping's flagship foreign policy initiative, and thus closely associated with his leadership 5.2.7 The BRI involves the use of institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Silk Road Fund, and regional forums 5.2.8 The Belt and Road is intended to have appeal for foreign audiences as well as the domestic Chinese one, thus boosting China's soft power abroad and legitimacy at home 5.2.9 The Belt and Road is ambitious, large-scale, loose, and vague 5.2.10 The BRI is intended to achieve win-win cooperation among participating nations 5.3 Conclusion: unpacking the implications References Chapter 6: The Belt and Road Initiative's regional impacts 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Central Asia 6.2.1 Applying the complex eclecticism toolkit to Central Asia 6.3 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 6.3.1 Applying the complex eclecticism toolkit to CEE 6.4 Southeast Asia 6.4.1 Applying the complex eclecticism toolkit to Southeast Asia 6.5 South Asia 6.5.1 Applying the complex eclecticism toolkit to South Asia 6.6 The Middle East 6.6.1 Applying the complex eclecticism toolkit to the Middle East 6.7 Conclusions References Chapter 7: Assessing the impacts of China's Belt and Road Initiative 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Summary of the findings in Chapters 4-6 7.3 Assessing complex eclecticism 7.4 Assessing the macro-level theories 7.5 The Belt and Road's global implications 7.6 Conclusion: the Belt and Road Initiative into the future References