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This paper analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the economies of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States using a model of a small open economy subject to interest rate and fiscal expenditure shocks and financial frictions. The paper shows that macroeconomic aggregates in this region are quite volatile, with consumption exhibiting higher volatility than gross domestic product. The analysis also finds that in these economies real interest rates are highly volatile and strongly countercyclical with gross domestic product and other macroeconomic aggregates. Similarly, fiscal expenditures show significant volatility, but are pro-cyclical with gross domestic product. The results suggest two major directions for designing policies to help reduce the volatility experienced by the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States economies. First, Organization of Eastern Caribbean States countries should seek a greater openness to international financial markets, which could help them smooth out the effects of fundamental shocks, such as shocks to technology and terms of trade, and shocks associated with natural hazards. However, this removal of international financial barriers needs to be accompanied by improvements in domestic financial conditions, as this would reduce the vulnerability of these economies to country risk premium shocks. Second, the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region should try harder to move toward a countercyclical fiscal policy stance, as this could help to stabilize the domestic risk premium and cushion the negative effects of interest rate shocks on economic activity, hence reducing volatility.

The relationship between dyadic power balances and the onset of war is a principal element in realist theories of international politics. The influence of the status quo orientation of the belligerents has also been specified in power transition theory as a factor which impacts on the patterns of conflict. However, despite this theoretical underpinning, the question of the probabilistic identity of war initiators constitutes a gap in the understanding of factors associated with international conflict. This study examines the identity of war initiators as it relates to both power balances and status quo orientation for a set of nation-dyads that have formed long-term rivalries. The results of the analysis indicate that for rival dyads: (1) status quo challengers rather than defenders are the most probable war initiators; (2) status quo challengers are equally likely to initiate wars whether they are superior or inferior in capabilities to their rivals; and (3) status quo defenders initiate wars almost solely under unstable military balances. This last pattern suggests that stable military balances of either preponderance or parity are generally interpreted by status quo defenders as supportive of deterrence, whereas unstable balances producing capability shifts or transitions are deemed dangerous enough to provoke preemptive military action. The distribution is such that it approximates a necessary condition for the initiation of war by the status quo defender in an enduring rivalry. All three of the above findings are consistent with A.F.K. Organski's original formulation of power transition theory.

The body of research examining the welfare systems of the Global South has expanded, yet there remains a lack of knowledge regarding the implications of modernising the welfare system in rural agrarian societies. A research gap in this area led us to conduct a live-in observation and 17 interviews with peasants in Merjosuro village—a rural area in Central Java, Indonesia—to examine how farmers' rationality affects the perception of social risks and the decision-making process regarding health risks management. The study has two key findings. The first finding reveals that differences in the rationality of risk between policymakers and the Merjosuro community are the reason why the community does not participate in the National Health Insurance (JKN). The second finding indicates that the monthly contributory system promoted by JKN is incompatible with the livelihoods in an agrarian society characterised by unstable and irregular income depending on harvest time. Overall, the case in Merjosuro highlights the understudied phenomena of expanding modern-formal social policies within more traditional community-based informal welfare arrangements, which were found to have limited the pace of transformation of the welfare state expansion in the examined case. Additionally, the study has practical implications for rethinking contextualised designs of welfare state policies and practices for the Global South.

The study examines the poverty-induced migration and experiences among poor rural households in four villages of Kalaburagi, Karnataka, India. A sample of 320 migrant households was interviewed to explore poverty-driven migration and identify influencing factors in rural areas. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources, encompassing information on poverty status in India, including rural and urban poverty. Findings from the study indicate that drought, agricultural underdevelopment and a lack of employment opportunities in rural areas are fundamental factors contributing to poverty-induced migration. The study further reveals that household poverty has significantly increased, leading to challenges in sustaining livelihoods among migrants. Consequently, the labour force from rural areas is forced to migrate in search of livelihood opportunities. Policies and programmes meant for them need to be effectively implemented in rural areas.

This article discusses the current debate in India centred on freebie schemes and budgetary priorities. Both are being shaped by India's political economy within and by globalisation forces outside. Targeting high growth rates and making economies competitively fit are driving this globalization forces. Should budgets prioritise growth or distribution? The Bhagwati–Sen debate provides us insights into the pros and cons of this apparent choice. Economic growth in India has been reasonably good, but not enough employment has been created. The decline in poverty rate has been slower, and in absolute numbers, a staggering number are still poor. India, an erstwhile colonised nation-state, is currently focusing on an infrastructure-led growth budget. The current governing elites assume that growth will take place and benefits eventually will trickle down. It rests its hopes largely on the middle class for high growth rates. The counter-elite voice demands more budgetary allocation for the Indian labouring poor, largely rural. This allocation will widen the participatory base of the economy. The two viewpoints presented here represent two perspectives: an economic growth-led India and an inclusive India. This debate has significant implications for re/distributive policies and programmes and human development.

This study explored the media representations of farmer-victims in Kidapawan City, the Philippines. Specifically, this examined how Metropolis-based news media represented the farmers who were reportedly involved in socio-political issues with the government that paved the way to the Kidapawan Massacre dated 1 April 2016. Juxtaposed with the exploration was the examination of how the oppressed and marginalised group was presented in media reports within the context of social development. This researcher employed van Dijk's (1998, A critical discourse analysis) Critical Discourse Analysis of selected 27 tabloid news stories. This critical research led to the way of thinking that because of the government's inaction and the media's neoliberal-capitalistic ideology, farmers' plight was overlooked and silenced. In this elite-dominated Philippine society as well as in the Asia-Pacific, discourses of people-centred development were relatively scant and torpid. Hence, the conceptualisation of an alternative model, that is Communication and Social Development ( Pascual, 2018 : Media representations of the Kidapawan farmers and social development communication in the Kidapawan Massacre).