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In recent times World and Global History became
the fast growing sections of international historiography,
mainly due to the interest in North American universities,
but also followed by an increasing interest in other
world regions. The first European Congress in World and
Global History, held from September, 22 to 25, 2005 at the
University of Leipzig, explored the field and tried to answer
if there are specific European traditions and practices to
write and research world history in a global age. In the following
section reports from the panels organised during this
conference give an impression of a first step towards a new
way to think and to discuss about history on the European
continent but also in contact with scholars from Australia,
the Americas, Asia and Africa.

ENIGMA-CNV working group. ; Low-frequency 1q21.1 distal deletion and duplication copy number variant (CNV) carriers are predisposed to multiple neurodevelopmental disorders, including schizophrenia, autism and intellectual disability. Human carriers display a high prevalence of micro- and macrocephaly in deletion and duplication carriers, respectively. The underlying brain structural diversity remains largely unknown. We systematically called CNVs in 38 cohorts from the large-scale ENIGMA-CNV collaboration and the UK Biobank and identified 28 1q21.1 distal deletion and 22 duplication carriers and 37,088 non-carriers (48% male) derived from 15 distinct magnetic resonance imaging scanner sites. With standardized methods, we compared subcortical and cortical brain measures (all) and cognitive performance (UK Biobank only) between carrier groups also testing for mediation of brain structure on cognition. We identified positive dosage effects of copy number on intracranial volume (ICV) and total cortical surface area, with the largest effects in frontal and cingulate cortices, and negative dosage effects on caudate and hippocampal volumes. The carriers displayed distinct cognitive deficit profiles in cognitive tasks from the UK Biobank with intermediate decreases in duplication carriers and somewhat larger in deletion carriers—the latter potentially mediated by ICV or cortical surface area. These results shed light on pathobiological mechanisms of neurodevelopmental disorders, by demonstrating gene dose effect on specific brain structures and effect on cognitive function. ; 1000BRAINS: The 1000BRAINS study was funded by the Institute of Neuroscience and Medicine, Research Center Juelich, Germany. We thank the Heinz Nixdorf Foundation (Germany) for the generous support of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study on which 1000BRAINS is based. We also thank the scientists and the study staff of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study and 1000BRAINS. Funding was also granted by the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association (Caspers) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement 945539 (Human Brain Project SGA3; Amunts, Caspers, Cichon). Brainscale: The Brainscale study was supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research MagW 480-04-004 (Dorret I. Boomsma), 51.02.060 (Hilleke E. Hulshoff Pol), 668.772 (Dorret I. Boomsma and Hilleke E. Hulshoff Pol); NWO/SPI 56-464-14192 (Dorret I. Boomsma), the European Research Council (ERC-230374) (Dorret I. Boomsma), High Potential Grant Utrecht University (Hilleke E.Hulshoff Pol) and NWO Brain and Cognition 433-09-220 (Hilleke E.Hulshoff Pol). Betula: The Betula study was funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg (KAW) foundation (Nyberg). The Freesurfer segmentations on the Betula sample were performed on resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at HPC2N (in Umeå, Sweden), partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2018-05973. Brain Imaging Genetics (BIG): This work makes use of the BIG database, first established in Nijmegen, The Netherlands, in 2007. This resource is now part of Cognomics (www.cognomics.nl), a joint initiative by researchers from the Donders Centre for Cognitive Neuroimaging, the Human Genetics and Cognitive Neuroscience departments of the Radboud University Medical Centre and the Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics in Nijmegen. The Cognomics Initiative has received support from the participating departments and centres and from external grants, that is, the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (Netherlands) (BBMRI-NL), the Hersenstichting Nederland and the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The research leading to these results also receives funding from the NWO Gravitation grant 'Language in Interaction', the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement nos. 602450 (IMAGEMEND), 278948 (TACTICS) and 602805 (Aggressotype), as well as from the European Community's Horizon 2020 programme under grant agreement no. 643051 (MiND) and from ERC-2010-AdG 268800-NEUROSCHEMA. In addition, the work was supported by a grant for the ENIGMA Consortium (grant number U54 EB020403) from the BD2K Initiative of a cross-NIH partnership. deCODE genetics: deCODE genetics acknowledges support from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking under grant agreement nos. 115008 (NEWMEDS) and 115300 (EUAIMS), of which resources are composed of EFPIA in-kind contribution and financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (EU-FP7/2007-2013), EU-FP7-funded grant agreement no. 602450 (IMAGEMEND) and EU-funded FP7-People-2011-IAPP grant agreement no. 286213 (PsychDPC). Dublin: This work was supported by Science Foundation Ireland (SFI grant 12/IP/1359 to Gary Donohoe and grant SFI08/IN.1/B1916-Corvin to Aidan C. Corvin). ECHO-DEFINE: The ECHO study acknowledges funding from a Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre Grant to Michael J. Owen (G0801418), the Wellcome Trust (Institutional Strategic Support Fund (ISSF) to van den Bree and Clinical Research Training Fellowship to Joanne L. Doherty), the Waterloo Foundation (WF 918-1234 to van den Bree), the Baily Thomas Charitable Fund (2315/1 to van den Bree), National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH 5UO1MH101724 to van den Bree and Michael J. Owen), the IMAGINE-2 study (funded by the MRC (MR/T033045/1) to van den Bree, Jeremy Hall and Michael J. Owen), the IMAGINE-ID study (funded by MRC (MR/N022572/1) to Jeremy Hall, van den Bree and Owen). The DEFINE study was supported by a Wellcome Trust Strategic Award (100202/Z/12/Z) to Michael J. Owen. ENIGMA: ENIGMA is supported in part by NIH grants U54 EB20403, R01MH116147 and R56AG058854. NIA T32AG058507; NIH/NIMH 5T32MH073526. EPIGEN-Dublin: The EPIGEN-Dublin cohort was supported by a Science Foundation Ireland Research Frontiers Programme award (08/RFP/GEN1538). EPIGEN-UK (Sisodiya): The work was partly undertaken at UCLH/UCL, which received a proportion of funding from the UK Department of Health's NIHR Biomedical Research Centres funding scheme. We are grateful to the Wolfson Trust and the Epilepsy Society for supporting the Epilepsy Society MRI scanner. GAP: This work was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Mental Health Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. GOBS: The GOBS study data collection was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants: R01 MH078143, R01 MH078111 and R01 MH083824, with work conducted in part in facilities constructed under the support of NIH grant C06 RR020547. GSP: Data were in part provided by the Brain Genomics Superstruct Project (GSP) of Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) (Principal Investigators: Randy Buckner, Jordan Smoller and Joshua Roffman), with support from the Center for Brain Science Neuroinformatics Research Group, Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Center for Genomic Medicine and Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research. Twenty individual investigators at Harvard and MGH generously contributed data to the overall project. We would like to thank Randy Buckner for insightful comments and feedback on this work. HUBIN: The HUBIN study was financed by the Swedish Research Council (K2010-62X-15078-07-2, K2012-61X-15078-09-3, 521-2014-3487 K2015-62X-15077-12-3, 2017-00949), the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research between Stockholm County Council and the Karolinska Institutet. HUNT: The HUNT study is a collaboration between HUNT Research Centre (Faculty of Medicine and Movement Sciences, NTNU—Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Nord-Trøndelag County Council, Central Norway Health Authority and the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. HUNT-MRI was funded by the Liaison Committee between the Central Norway Regional Health Authority and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, and the Norwegian National Advisory Unit for functional MRI. IMAGEN: This work received support from the following sources: the European Union-funded FP6 Integrated Project IMAGEN (reinforcement-related behaviour in normal brain function and psychopathology) (LSHM-CT- 2007-037286), the Horizon 2020 funded ERC Advanced Grant 'STRATIFY' (Brain network based stratification of reinforcement-related disorders) (695313), ERANID (Understanding the Interplay between Cultural, Biological and Subjective Factors in Drug Use Pathways) (PR-ST-0416-10004), BRIDGET (JPND: BRain Imaging, cognition Dementia and next generation GEnomics) (MR/N027558/1), Human Brain Project (HBP SGA 2, 785907),the FP7 projects IMAGEMEND(602450; IMAging GEnetics for MENtal Disorders) and MATRICS (603016), the Innovative Medicine Initiative Project EUAIMS (115300-2), the Medical Research Council Grant 'c-VEDA' (Consortium on Vulnerability to Externalizing Disorders and Addictions) (MR/N000390/1), the Swedish Research Council FORMAS, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London, the Bundesministeriumfür Bildung und Forschung (BMBF grants 01GS08152, 01EV0711; eMED SysAlc01ZX1311A; Forschungsnetz AERIAL 01EE1406A, 01EE1406B), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG grants, SM 80/7-2, SFB 940/2), the Medical Research Foundation and Medical Research Council (grants MR/R00465X/1 and MR/S020306/1). Further support was provided by grants from: ANR (project AF12-NEUR0008-01—WM2NA, ANR-12-SAMA-0004), the Eranet Neuron (ANR-18-NEUR00002-01), the Fondation de France (00081242), the Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale (DPA20140629802), the Mission Interministérielle de Lutte-contre-les-Drogues-et-les-Conduites-Addictives (MILDECA), the Assistance-Publique-Hôpitaux-de-Paris and INSERM (interface grant), Paris Sud University IDEX 2012, the Fondation de l'Avenir (grant AP-RM-17-013), the Fédération pour la Recherche sur le Cerveau; the National Institutes of Health, Science Foundation Ireland (16/ERCD/3797), USA (Axon, Testosterone and Mental Health during Adolescence; RO1 MH085772-01A1) and by NIH Consortium grant U54 EB020403, supported by a cross-NIH alliance that funds Big Data to Knowledge Centres of Excellence. Lifespan: The study is funded by the Research Council of Norway (230345, 288083 and 223273). NCNG: NCNG sample collection was supported by grants from the Bergen Research Foundation and the University of Bergen, the Dr Einar Martens Fund, the Research Council of Norway, to le Hellard, Steen and Espeseth. The Bergen group was supported by grants from the Western Norway Regional Health Authority (Grant 911593 to Arvid Lundervold, Grant 911397 and 911687 to Astri Johansen Lundervold). NTR: The NTR cohort was supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants 904-61-090, 985-10-002, 912-10-020, 904-61-193, 480-04-004,463-06-001, 451-04-034, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 016-115-035, 481-08-011, 056-32-010, Middelgroot-911-09-032, OCW_NWO Gravity programme—024.001.003, NWO-Groot 480-15-001/674, Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NWO Genomics), NBIC/BioAssist/RK(2008.024), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL, 184.021.007 and 184.033.111); Spinozapremie (NWO-56-464-14192), KNAW Academy Professor Award (PAH/6635) and University Research Fellow grant (URF) to Dorret I. Boomsma; Amsterdam Public Health research institute (former EMGO+), Neuroscience Amsterdam research institute (former NCA); the European Science Foundation (ESF, EU/QLRT-2001-01254), the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7- HEALTH-F4-2007-2013, grant 01413: ENGAGE and grant 602768: ACTION); the European Research Council (ERC Starting 284167, ERC Consolidator 771057, ERC Advanced 230374), Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the National Institutes of Health (NIH, R01D0042157-01A1, R01MH58799-03, MH081802, DA018673, R01 DK092127-04, Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951 and 1RC2 MH089995); the Avera Institute for Human Genetics, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. Computing was supported by NWO through grant 2018/EW/00408559, BiG Grid, the Dutch e-Science Grid and SURFSARA. OATS: The OATS study has been funded by a National Health & Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Australian Research Council (ARC) Strategic Award Grant of the Ageing Well, Ageing Productively Programme (ID No. 401162) and NHMRC Project Grants (ID Nos. 1045325 and 1085606). This research was facilitated through Twins Research Australia, a national resource in part supported by an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence Grant (ID No.: 1079102). We thank the participants for their time and generosity in contributing to this research. We acknowledge the contribution of the OATS research team (https://cheba.unsw.edu.au/project/older-australian-twins-study) to this study. OATS genotyping was partly funded by a Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Flagship Collaboration Fund Grant. Osaka: Osaka study was supported by the Brain Mapping by Integrated Neurotechnologies for Disease Studies (Brain/MINDS: Grant Number JP18dm0207006), Brain/MINDS& beyond studies (Grant Number JP20dm0307002) and Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants for Comprehensive Research on Persons with Disabilities (Grant Number JP20dk0307081) from the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED), Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI; Grant Numbers JP25293250 and JP16H05375). Some computations were performed at the Research Center for Computational Science, Okazaki, Japan. PAFIP: The PAFIP study was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, FIS 00/3095, 01/3129, PI020499, PI060507, PI10/00183, the SENY Fundació Research Grant CI2005-0308007 and the FundaciónMarqués de Valdecilla API07/011. Biological samples from our cohort were stored at the Valdecilla Biobank and genotyping services were conducted at the Spanish 'Centro Nacional de Genotipado' (CEGEN-ISCIII). MCIC/COBRE: The study is funded by the National Institutes of Health studies R01EB006841, P20GM103472 and P30GM122734 and Department of Energy DE-FG02-99ER62764. PING: Data collection and sharing for the Paediatric Imaging, Neurocognition and Genetics (PING) Study (National Institutes of Health Grant RC2DA029475) were funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development. A full list of PING investigators is at http://pingstudy.ucsd.edu/investigators.html. QTIM: The QTIM study was supported by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01 HD050735) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC 486682, 1009064), Australia. Genotyping was supported by NHMRC (389875). Medland is supported in part by an NHMRC fellowship (APP1103623). SHIP: SHIP is part of the Community Medicine Research net of the University of Greifswald, Germany, which is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant nos. 01ZZ9603, 01ZZ0103 and 01ZZ0403), the Ministry of Cultural Affairs and the Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. Genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism typing in SHIP and MRI scans in SHIP and SHIP-TREND have been supported by a joint grant from Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen, Germany and the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. StrokeMRI: StrokeMRI was supported by the Norwegian ExtraFoundation for Health and Rehabilitation(2015/FO5146), the Research Council of Norway (249795, 262372), the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (2014097, 2015044, 2015073) and the Department of Psychology, University of Oslo. Sydney MAS: The Sydney Memory and Aging Study (Sydney MAS) is funded by National and HealthMedical Research Council (NHMRC) Programme and Project Grants (ID350833, ID568969 and ID109308). We also thank the Sydney MAS participants and the Research Team. SYS: The SYS Study is supported by Canadian Institutes of Health Research. TOP: Centre of Excellence: RCN #23273 and RCN #226971. Part of this work was performed on the TSD (Tjeneste for Sensitive Data) facilities, owned by the University of Oslo, operated and developed by the TSD service group at the University of Oslo, IT-Department (USIT) (tsd-drift@usit.uio.no). The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-PEOPLE-2013-COFUND) under grant agreement no. 609020—Scientia Fellows; the Research Council of Norway (RCN) #276082—A lifespan perspective on mental illness: toward precision medicine using multimodal brain imaging and genetics. Ida E. Sønderby and Rune Bøen are supported by South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (#2020060). Ida E. Sønderby and Ole A. Andreassen have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement no. 847776 (CoMorMent project) and the KG Jebsen Foundation (SKGJ-MED-021). UCLA_UMCU: The UCLA_UMCU cohort comprises of six studies which were supported by National Alliance for Research in Schizophrenia and Affective Disorders (NARSAD) (20244 to Prof. Hillegers), The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) (908-02-123 to Prof. Hulshoff Pol), and Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO 9120818 and NWO-VIDI 917-46-370 to Prof. Hulshoff Pol). The GROUP study was funded through the Geestkracht programme of the Dutch Health Research Council (ZonMw, grant number 10-000-1001), and matching funds from participating pharmaceutical companies (Lundbeck, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Janssen Cilag) and universities and mental health care organizations (Amsterdam: Academic Psychiatric Centre of the Academic Medical Center and the mental health institutions: GGZ inGeest, Arkin, Dijk en Duin, GGZ Rivierduinen, Erasmus Medical Centre, GGZ Noord-Holland-Noord. Groningen: University Medical Center Groningen and the mental health institutions: Lentis, GGZ Friesland, GGZ Drenthe, Dimence, Mediant, GGNet Warnsveld, Yulius Dordrecht and Parnassia Psycho-medical Center, The Hague. Maastricht: Maastricht University Medical Centre and the mental health institutions: GGzE, GGZ Breburg, GGZ Oost-Brabant, Vincent van Gogh, voor Geestelijke Gezondheid, Mondriaan, Virenzeriagg, Zuyderland GGZ, MET ggz, Universitair Centrum Sint-JozefKortenberg, CAPRI University of Antwerp, PC Ziekeren Sint-Truiden, PZ Sancta Maria Sint-Truiden, GGZ Overpelt, OPZ Rekem. Utrecht: University Medical Center Utrecht and the mental health institutions: Altrecht, GGZ Centraal and Delta.). UK Biobank: This work made use of data sharing from UK Biobank (under project code 27412). Others: Work by Pierre Vanderhaeghen was funded by Grants of the European Research Council (ERC Adv Grant GENDEVOCORTEX), the EOS Programme, the Belgian FWO, the AXA Research Fund and the Belgian Queen Elizabeth Foundation. Ikuo K. Suzuki was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship of the FRS/FNRS. ; Peer reviewed

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Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/13/actualidad/1342139368_040972.html Dilma Rousseff lanza paquete de incentivos para potenciar la industria militar brasileña. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/E9BE7D4D-0931-4437-97DE-4CCD36D4A411.htm?id={E9BE7D4D-0931-4437-97DE-4CCD36D4A411} Pierde fuerza en Brasil la cruzada anticorrupción.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490735-pierde-fuerza-en-brasil-la-cruzada-anticorrupcion#comentar Cardoso: "Brasil es menos influyente". Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490736-cardoso-brasil-es-menos-influyente#comentar"Los Ángeles Times" analiza realidad social haitiana tras el terremoto de 2010.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-haiti-housing-20120715,0,979717.storyESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁEstados Unidos en plena campaña presidencial.Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/18/content_15592741.htm http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490747-los-rebeldes-le-reprochan-a-obama-su-pasividad#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-equipo-de-obama-ataca-a-romney_12030788-4 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/barack-obama-no-ofrecer-disculpas-a-mitt-romney_12033752-4 http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2012/07/17/les-etats-unis-connaissent-leur-pire-secheresse-depuis-plus-de-50-ans_1734505_3244.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/70F54CE7-CCC2-4206-8B03-EF5FDAD8FD6F.htm?id={70F54CE7-CCC2-4206-8B03-EF5FDAD8FD6F} http://elpais.com/tag/elecciones_eeuu_2012/a/Un barco militar de Estados Unidos abre fuego contra un bote en aguas del golfo Pérsico.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342458571_053421.html http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-india-apology-20120718,0,466917.story http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587828.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/united-states-navy-ship-fires-on-boat-off-coast-of-united-arab-emirates.html?ref=world&gwh=580D5EDDD2F62CB1C518ADF9B5EBF3CA Acusan a menores en Estados Unidos de matar a golpes a inmigrante mexicano.Para más información: www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/acusan-a-menores-en-eeuu-de-matar-a-golpes-a-inmigrante-mexicano_12036626-4Tiroteo dos muertos y 19 heridos en Toronto. Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/tiroteio-deixa-dois-mortos-19-feridos-em-toronto-no-canada-5495171#ixzz20vojS5mUEstados Unidos rechaza la oferta de Annan de que Irán participe en la transición en Siria.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/11/actualidad/1342037410_130149.html El Senado de Estados Unidos acusa a HSBC de blanqueo de dinero del narcotráfico.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342508679_820810.html http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2012/07/17/lutte-anti-blanchiment-un-rapport-parlementaire-americain-pointe-les-carences-d-hsbc_1734511_3234.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587732.htmEUROPAEl futuro del euro atado al ajuste en España.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18094883 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491011-el-futuro-del-euro-atado-al-ajuste-en-espana#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/espaa-a-la-espera-del-temido-septiembre_12032083-4 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490546-advierten-que-espana-deberia-pedir-un-segundo-rescate-a-europa#comentarCrece el malestar social contra Rajoy por los recortes.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491010-crece-el-malestar-social-contra-rajoy-por-los-recortes#comentar http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/86BC79C3-A361-45D5-8C58-9E1C14B08A1D.htm?id={86BC79C3-A361-45D5-8C58-9E1C14B08A1D} Servicios secretos alemanes advierten de nuevo terrorismo de ultraderecha.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/servicios-secretos-alemanes-advierten-nuevo-terrorismo-ultraderechista_12041501-4 Seguridad de los Olímpicos estaría en vilo.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/seguridad-de-los-olmpicos-estara-en-vilo_12032087-4 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/28/travel/heathrow-airport-london-olympics/index.html?hpt=wo_c1 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/world/europe/british-parliament-investigates-olympics-chaos.html?ref=world&gwh=E21F104A68E99F62E93B5BA6DF2F2914 Unión Europea entrena fuerzas nigerianas contra su lucha con Al Qaeda. Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/16/12773236-european-union-mission-to-train-niger-forces-to-fight-al-qaida?lite Hollande presenta el consejo de sabios que "limpiará" la vida pública.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342452210_585106.html http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/07/16/regle-d-or-et-constitution-mais-comment-compte-faire-hollande_1734329_823448.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/18/content_15592821.htmEncuentran en Hungría al criminal nazi más buscado del mundo. Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2012/07/17/radovan-karadzic-accuse-de-genocide-danger-pour-tous_1734254_3232.html http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/07/17/le-criminel-nazi-laszlo-csatary-aurait-fui-son-domicile_1734521_3214.html http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/0D556C10-24BB-4277-BDC0-38EE3F5149EA.htm?id={0D556C10-24BB-4277-BDC0-38EE3F5149EA} http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18884106. http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/nazista-mais-procurado-do-mundo-encontrado-em-budapeste-5482845 Rusia acusa a Occidente de hacer chantaje con la misión de la ONU.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342461553_894080.html Annan en Moscú por conflicto en Siria. Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/16/content_15583063.htmAprobada la conflictiva división del distrito de Bruselas.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/13/actualidad/1342201123_461591.htmlHSBC se disculpa por casos de lavado de dinero.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/hsbc-se-disculpa-por-casos-de-lavado-de-dinero_12041301-4Atentado en Sofía deja al menos 7 muertos.http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491431-atentado-en-bulgaria-contra-una-comitiva-de-turistas-israelies http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/07/18/attentat-meurtrier-contre-des-israeliens-en-bulgarie_1735418_3214.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/world/europe/explosion-on-bulgaria-tour-bus-kills-at-least-four-israelis.html?_r=1&hp&gwh=97A160EA3577E658088E69075D477BA1Rusia y la ONU analizan posibles soluciones para el conflicto en Siria.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342506302_589902.htmlASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTEContinúan las matanzas indiscriminadas en Siria: Damasco sufre los peores combates.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/17/12794303-syrian-general-tlas-in-france-following-defection?lite http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/confrontos-chegam-ao-centro-de-damasco-apenas-2km-do-palacio-5495574#ixzz20vqvx9un http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-damascus-fighting-20120718,0,1068141.story http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587727.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/new-fighting-in-damascus-after-syria-denies-attack-on-civilians.html?ref=world&gwh=9CA06F0BDA70FC8EE10DE27FCF32E5D9 http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342519414_504170.html http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/07/17/damas-en-guerre-tournant-dans-la-revolte-contre-le-pouvoir-d-assad_1734518_3218.html http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/07/17/les-divergences-s-accentuent-entre-russes-et-occidentaux-sur-la-syrie_1734557_3218.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c2Irán se ofrece como mediador en conflicto sirio. Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/meast/iran-syria/index.html?hpt=wo_bn11 El Comité Internacional de la Cruz Roja declaró que el conflicto ha alcanzado tal amplitud y gravedad que ya puede considerarse como una "guerra civil". Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/4262DBC3-C8B9-42FD-A78B-C3477719A344.htm?id={4262DBC3-C8B9-42FD-A78B-C3477719A344} Ministro de Defensa sirio muere en explosión en Damasco.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/ministro-defensa-sirio-muere-en-explosion-en-damasco-tv-estatal_12041541-4 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/rebeldes-sirios-anuncian-gran-ofensiva-contra-las-fuerzas-de-asad_12036961-4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18882149 Más de 112.000 refugiados sirios viven en Líbano, Turquía, Jordania e Irak.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/16/actualidad/1342460935_768958.html 'No actuar en Siria es darles licencia para matar': Ban Ki-moon.Para más información: www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/onu-condena-masacre-de-150-personas-en-siria_12030421-4ONU trata de ayudar a Siria pero no logra satisfacer las necesidades.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/onu-trata-de-ayudar-a-siria-pero-no-logra-satisfacer-las-necesidades_12034047-4Kim Jong-Un nombra a un nuevo alto mando del Ejército.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-north-korea-dismissal-20120717,0,4588711.story http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/07/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/ABCDE3E9-4298-43E8-8666-D34D18692C78.htm?id={ABCDE3E9-4298-43E8-8666-D34D18692C78} http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/15/world/asia/north-korea-army-chief/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/07/17/pyongyang-nomme-un-nouveau-vice-marechal-de-l-armee_1734513_3216.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587763.htmHyon Yong-Chol será una pieza clave del presidente norcoreano para controlar totalmente a las Fuerzas Armadas.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/17/actualidad/1342509346_084341.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/world/asia/shifts-in-north-korea-may-be-attempt-to-rein-in-military.html?ref=world&gwh=76401E3CBC4CC41356FB4B51058553C4 Kim empieza a imponer su estilo en Corea del Norte.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490978-kim-empieza-a-imponer-su-estilo-en-corea-del-norte#comentar http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/para-especialistas-saias-de-norte-coreanas-dizem-muito-sobre-pais-5492829#ixzz20vqz6FsfAtentado en una boda en Kabul: 23 muertos.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490538-atentado-en-una-boda-en-kabul-23-muertos#comentar http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/al-menos-17-muertos-en-un-ataque-suicida-en-una-boda-en-afganistn_12030541-4 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1490464-al-menos-veintitres-muertos-en-un-ataque-suicida-contra-una-boda-en-el-norte-de-afganistan#comentar20 muertos y 230.000 evacuados en Japón por lluvias torrenciales.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/asia/floods-in-japan-displace-hundreds-of-thousands.html?ref=world&gwh=94150277955BA2AEBC85448E35CADBCE http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/14/actualidad/1342268011_634794.html http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/asia/japan-floods/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 Clinton visita Israel. Para más información: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587683.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/asia/thousands-gather-in-tokyo-to-protest-nuclear-restart.html?ref=world&gwh=00C9D8719334275AF674614A576C5B8FJaponeses contra la energía nuclear.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78656.html http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-07/17/content_15587765.htm China en guardia ante la crisis.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/15/actualidad/1342373596_639513.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-gdp-20120713,0,783927.storyViudas de la guerra levantan un barrio con sus propias manos en Kabul.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/viudas-de-la-guerra-levantan-un-barrio-con-sus-propias-manos-en-kabul_12038483-4 Condenado a muerte el soldado afgano que mató a 5 militares franceses.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/condenado-a-muerte-el-soldado-afgano-que-mat-a-5-militares-franceses_12036781-4 http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/07/17/le-soldat-afghan-meurtrier-de-cinq-militaires-francais-condamne-a-mort_1734527_3216.htmlAumenta número de deslizamientos de tierras al sur de Asia. Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18872398ÁFRICAHillary Clinton expresó su apoyo a 'transición completa' en Egipto.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/hillary-clinton-expres-su-apoyo-a-transicin-completa-en-egipto_12033750-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-clinton-20120715,0,376110.story Clinton insta a la Junta militar egipcia a cooperar con el presidente Morsi.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/15/actualidad/1342363915_980700.html Naciones Unidas condena actos de grupos rebeldes en Congo. Para más información: http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/17/12787052-un-condemns-congo-attacks-as-rebel-advance-threatens-goma?liteHistórica decisión de la Unión Africana. Para más información: http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/07/17/bamako-annonce-des-concertations-pour-un-gouvernement-d-union_1734502_3212.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/africa/a-historic-choice-for-the-african-union.html?ref=world&gwh=EE0AA064539A838437181EF67899E531 Mubarak continúa hospitalizado.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/africa/egypt-mubarak/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/egypts-former-leader-mubarak-is-transferred-back-to-prison.html?ref=world&gwh=BC8A1852D8F47652373D75A8BC4E3D92 Egipto: liberan a turistas estadounidenses.Para más información: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/egypt-americans-kidnapped/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/middleeast/egypt-american-tourists-released.html?ref=world&gwh=475BFF001B0C5D8E348B7E3970805224 http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/07/16/egypte-liberation-de-deux-touristes-americains-enleves-dans-le-sinai_1734447_3212.html Cruz Roja envía alimentos a Mali. Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/africa/mali-red-cross-prepares-food-aid.html?ref=world&gwh=01D96D2AF203E05076AC0E1F6E0C09C4 Morsi vs. Corte, una nueva lucha de poder en Egipto.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/morsi-vs-corte-una-nueva-lucha-de-poder-en-egipto_12032085- Sudán del sur, un país que continúa en construcción.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/sudn-del-sur-un-pas-que-contina-en-construccin_12032081-4 OTRASAdvertencia del FMI por China y Brasil.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1491012-advertencia-del-fmi-por-china-y-brasil#comentar"En todos los casos de la Corte Penal Internacional aparece la violencia sexual".Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/07/14/actualidad/1342281593_350369.html ONU lanza campaña contra crimen organizado.Para más información: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/78650.html"The Economist" presenta su informe semanal: "Business this week". Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21558323

AMÉRICA LATINASe lleva a cabo la Conferencia de la ONU sobre Desarrollo Sostenible: Río+20.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18507602 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/americas/rio20-summit-overshadowed-by-global-economy.html?ref=world&gwh=BE406A719046AEA47E41F511A7EA0126 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15514968.htm http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/14/world/map-climate-change-c40/index.html?hpt=wo_t3 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/08/world/americas/rio-20-earth-summit-explainer/index.html?hpt=wo_bn8 http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12122896-twenty-years-later-will-world-make-good-on-rio-earth-summits-broken-promises?lite http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-brazil-global-summit-20120619,0,7734439.story http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483470-el-derecho-a-la-tierra-eje-en-la-cumbre-de-rio20#comentar http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15513978.htmAltercado entre Jefes de Estado de Argentina y Reino Unido en el G20.Para más información:http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/kirchner-cameron-trocam-acusacoes-sobre-ilhas-malvinas-5258356#ixzz1yKgVaJkChttp://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/_portada/noticias/4EFA1EFE-54F5http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/altercado-entre-argentina-y-reino-unido-en-el-g20-por-malvinas_11957606-4Cumbre del G-20 en Los Cabos.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-g20-obama-20120620,0,4286235.story http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483595-el-g-20-llama-a-impulsar-el-crecimiento#comentar http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483279-fuerte-presion-del-g-20-para-que-europa-solucione-su-crisis#comentarhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/el-g-20-promueve-pacto-por-crecimiento-econmico-mundial_11955854-4http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-g20-greece-20120619,0,5853378.story http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/americas/group-of-20-meets-in-a-mexico-outperforming-brazil.html?ref=world&gwh=AB8F6FE72C700DADD47003E08E309AAAAssange será arrestado si sale de la embajada de Ecuador.Para más información:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/europe/uk-assange-asylum/index.html?hpt=wo_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18519380http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/assange-pede-asilo-na-embaixada-do-equador-em-londres-5253607#ixzz1yKiShHgS http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18513976 http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/ecuador-estudia-conceder-asilo-politico-a-assange_11957517-4 http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12302374-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-seeks-asylum-in-ecuador?liteAl menos 16 muertos en el desalojo de una hacienda en el noreste de Paraguay.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/15/actualidad/1339782823_762410.htmlMahmud Ahmadineyad visita a su homólogo Evo Morales.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/mahmud-ahmadineyad-visita-a-su-homlogo-evo-morales_11957168-4 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483540-controvertido-viaje-de-ahmadinejad-a-bolivia#comentarDilma Rousseff dice no a encuentro oficial con el presidente de Irán. Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/internacional/noticias/C92B65D3-E4CB-493B-8393-0F49BEFB02DA.htm?id={C92B65D3-E4CB-493B-8393-0F49BEFB02DA}Un misterioso plan militar de Chávez, a cargo de un iraní.Para más información: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483541-un-misterioso-plan-militar-de-chavez-a-cargo-de-un-irani#comentarRafael Correa mostrará las fotos de periodistas críticos.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/rafael-correa-mostrar-las-fotos-de-periodistas-crticos_11955762-4Latinoamérica busca 250.000 millones para infraestructuras.Para más información: http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/06/17/actualidad/1339963810_855484.htmlPresidenciables en México debatieron con movimiento #Yosoy132.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/sin-pena-nieto-presidenciables-en-mexico-debatieron-con-grupo-yosoy132_11959572-4 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-pri-comeback-20120612,0,7734402.story"O Globo" analiza situación de los inmigrantes mexicanos en Estados Unidos. Para más información:http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/milhares-de-menores-enfrentam-arriscada-travessia-ilegal-do-mexico-aos-eua-5229494#ixzz1yKiQHazY La capital industrial de México vive angustiada por la violencia.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/16/actualidad/1339865069_062483.htmlHuracán Carlotta deja 2 muertos en su paso por Acapulco. Para más información: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47841097/ns/weather/#.T-HtFVLMqw4Escalada de violencia en México a medida que se acercan las elecciones.Para más información: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-violence-20120615,0,2293895.storyMás de 14.000 personas murieron en 2011 en las carreteras de México.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1339975634_041877.htmlViolencia continúa en Colombia.Para más información: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/17/actualidad/1339908242_101244.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/americas/us-accuses-colombian-in-drug-bribes.html?ref=world&gwh=75EBF95E9754E780AB448BD95DDAD8A9Nueva constitución de Haití modifica el status de haitianos en el extranjero.Para más información: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-18515499"O Globo" analiza situación de migrantes haitianos.Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/os-haitianos-tem-direito-se-quiserem-de-partir-para-brasil-5259480#ixzz1yKgOftE4Gran paso para libre comercio entre Costa Rica y Colombia.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/gran-paso-para-libre-comercio-entre-costa-rica-y-colombia_11949621-4Venezuela vive campaña electoral.Para más información: http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/internacional/noticias/5463C842-F622-4CC9-BAEC-1C2F9833A796.htm?id={5463C842-F622-4CC9-BAEC-1C2F9833A796 http://www.economist.com/node/21556913'La OEA tiene que mejorar': presidente de Chile.Para más información: http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/entrevista-con-sebastin-piera-presidente-de-chile_11953401-4 ESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁMitt Romney recibiría el apetecido respaldo de Henry Kissinger. Para más información:http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/internacional/noticias/6FB24C52-8562-493B-BE08-AFAAB2490839.htm?id={6FB24C52-8562-493B-BE08-AFAAB2490839}Un tercer Bush gana espacio en la política norteamericana.Para más información: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/um-terceiro-bush-ganha-terreno-na-politica-americana-5260087#ixzz1yKgHzBTB Obama en búsqueda de la reelección. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/obama-re-election-complicated-by-world-events.html?ref=world&gwh=C16D0F3F518D7B540E86871DA6BA6D46http://clesnes.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/06/16/obama-et-les-dreamers-latinos/El presidente estadounidense no entregará información a la Cámara de Representantes sobre el fallido operativo que permitió la entrada ilegal de armamento a México.Para más información:http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/854577.htmlSospechoso de tiroteo en campus de Canadá es arrestado.Para más información: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/americas/suspect-in-campus-shooting-in-canada-arrested-at-us-border.html?ref=world&gwh=0B1D2F810C22DE27B5FFE7A071748B8D"The Economist" estudia los intentos de la FED para controlar la inflación.Para más información:http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/06/federal-reserves-inflation-targetPutin y Obama buscan acuerdos sobre Siria.Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483281-putin-y-obama-buscan-acuerdos-sobre-siria#comentarhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15514041.htmhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/barack-obama-y-vladimir-putin-sobre-siria-y-escudo-antimisiles-en-europa_11955303-4http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1339971937_508212.htmlhttp://elpais.com/tag/elecciones_eeuu_2012/a/http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/inmigracin-asitica-supera-a-la-hispana-en-estados-unidos-segn-estudio_11956684-4EUROPATriunfo conservador en elecciones griegas modifica coyuntura europea.Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18515185http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/06/18/antonis-samaras-veut-un-gouvernement-de-consensus-national-pour-la-grece_1720449_3214.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2012/06/18/les-metamorphoses-successives-d-antonis-samaras_1720386_3210.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/europe/samaras-begins-effort-to-form-a-government-in-greece.html?ref=world&gwh=C0F6F42D04D237E76D710BAFE098DE13http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/europe/greek-vote-past-europe-returns-to-fiscal-rescue.html?_r=1&ref=world&gwh=CABBAF3AF6A1EBC942CB0CB4134F19B4http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/17/actualidad/1339926249_538416.htmlhttp://www.portafolio.co/internacional/triunfo-conservador-grecia-se-quedaria-la-eurozonahttp://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/esquerdistas-admitem-derrota-grecia-votou-para-ficar-no-euro-diz-vencedor-5232782#ixzz1yKiZ5QyJhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/18/content_15508129.htmhttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/europe/greece-election/index.html?hpt=wo_c2http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/06/greek-elections-0http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/20/12316852-new-greece-government-agreed-says-socialist-party-leader?litehttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-greece-election-20120618,0,4811844.storyEuropa enfría las esperanzas griegas de renegociar a fondo el rescate.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340047024_832526.htmlLa Unión Europea considera renegociar el rescate de Grecia.Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483538-la-ue-considera-renegociar-el-rescate-de-grecia#comentarLos neonazis griegos revalidan su éxito electoral de mayo.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/17/actualidad/1339964479_141619.htmlEl temor a la debacle, un factor de unión.Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483593-el-temor-a-la-debacle-un-factor-de-union#comentarEuropa rechaza presión del G20, pero medios hablan de nuevo 'rescate'.Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/europa-rechaza-presion-del-g20-pero-medios-hablan-de-nuevo-rescate_11959677-4http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18517461http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/europa-se-compromete-a-mantener-integridad-de-la-zona-euro-ante-el-g20_11959582-4Los franceses otorgan todo el poder a François Hollande.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/17/actualidad/1339930131_814908.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/franois-hollande-con-va-libre-en-el-legislativo_11954776-4http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/europe/french-socialists-win-majority-in-parliament.html?ref=world&gwh=B751F489F96C937D3A6A6EBAD20D8E8FAplazado hasta nuevo aviso el juicio contra Mladic.Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/europe/18iht-educside18.html?ref=world&gwh=720142F1AC44D7C28722A3D719524836http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/19/actualidad/1340065013_444531.htmlEl plan nuclear de Irán a debate en Moscú.Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-resume-in-moscow.html?ref=world&gwh=C7260784157BA7B3E1344A59E2C75B0Ehttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340050360_335679.htmlhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15514767.htmChipre preferiría préstamo de Rusia a rescate.Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/europe/cyprus-counts-on-its-close-ties-to-russia.html?ref=world&gwh=2DD575B38AD12B9661978959A76BCF06Disputa: Londres impide a carguero ruso llevar armas a Siria. Para más información:http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/internacional/noticias/ED921688-598F-4DAF-B25C-C59521E08C5D.htm?id={ED921688-598F-4DAF-B25C-C59521E08C5D}http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340045518_588637.htmlhttp://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12294230-russian-shipment-of-attack-helicopters-for-syria-halted-off-scotland?liteToma de rehenes en banco de Toulouse. Para más información:http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/homem-que-diz-ser-da-al-qaeda-faz-refens-em-toulouse-5260707#ixzz1yKidQNfu http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18516934http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/europe/france-hostages/index.html?hpt=wo_c2http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/20/12314153-police-arrest-suspect-after-hostage-drama-at-french-bank?lite19 años después, Suu Kyi recoge título honorario de Oxford.Para más información:http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/854565.htmlCombates al sureste de Turquía dejan 26 muertos.Para más información:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/19/world/europe/turkey-violence/index.html?hpt=wo_bn9ASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTEChina continua sufriendo las consecuencias de la política de hijo único.Para más información:http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2012/06/consequences-one-child-policyhttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-abortions-20120616,0,542822.storyEl príncipe Salmán, de 76 años, hereda el trono saudí para garantizar la estabilidad.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340036188_529956.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-appoints-prince-salman-as-crown-prince.html?ref=world&gwh=9002B6F5D181C43D5D4D2C5D9C6A99CChttp://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2012/06/18/arabie-saoudite-le-prince-salmane-nomme-prince-heritier_1720712_3210.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/muri-nayef-bin-abdelaziz-prncipe-heredero-de-arabia-saud_11951701-4Siria al borde de la guerra civil.Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/06/18/l-onu-veut-juger-ceux-qui-ont-attaque-ses-observateurs-en-syrie_1720309_3218.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18520341http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15515566.htmhttp://www.economist.com/node/21556952http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/ban-ki-moon-pidi-al-consejo-de-seguridad-que-evite-la-guerra-en-siria_11956683-4http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/siria-um-caso-serio-de-fracasso-diz-comissaria-da-onu-5258452#ixzz1yKkTR9TZhttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-lebanon-tripoli-violence-20120620,0,1539201.storyPor la violencia observadores de ONU suspenden actividades en Siria.Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/observadores-de-onu-suspenden-actividades-en-siria_11951741-4Un atentado mata al jefe militar de la zona sur de Yemen.Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340004852_423600.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/middleeast/military-commander-in-yemen-is-assassinated.html?ref=world&gwh=781FBCD130B26A65D826C28C349111CBhttp://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/18/12275285-al-qaidas-revenge-leading-yemen-general-killed-by-suicide-bomber?liteJapón mercado de la energía solar.Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/business/global/japan-poised-to-become-second-biggest-market-for-solar-power.html?ref=world&gwh=BC826C74117D92731DD43912E1638ABBSegún la ONU existen 90000 desplazados en Myanmar.Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18517412Irán y su programa de desarrollo nuclearPara más información:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-talks-20120619,0,7182546.storyhttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-talks-20120620,0,6723786.storyChina lanzó nave espacial Shenzhou IX con su primera mujer astronauta.Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/china-lanz-nave-espacial-shenzhou-ix-con-su-primera-mujer-astronauta_11951781-4Partido Popular de Pakistán se reúne para elegir nuevo primer ministro.Para más información:http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/19/world/asia/pakistan-prime-minister/index.html?hpt=wo_bn7http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/asia/pakistan-qaeda-leader/index.html?hpt=wo_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18517312http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-pakistan-gilani-20120620,0,2429553.story18 muertos en ataque suicida en Afganistán.Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2012/06/18/afghanistan-trois-hommes-en-uniforme-de-police-tuent-un-soldat-de-l-otan_1720827_3216.htmlhttp://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/20/12317699-three-us-troops-at-least-18-afghans-killed-in-suicide-blast?liteBangladesh bajo presión internacional para apertura de fronteras a refugiados de Rohingya.Para más información:http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/18/12283828-bangladesh-under-international-pressure-to-open-border-to-rohingya-refugees?liteAtaque contra chiitas en Irak.Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2012/06/18/vingt-deux-morts-dans-un-attentat-antichiite-en-irak_1720818_3218.htmlPrimer ministro de Japón decide reactivar dos reactores nucleares.Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/primer-ministro-de-japn-decide-reactivar-dos-reactores-nucleares_11951661-4http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/asia/japan-fukushima-report/index.html?hpt=wo_c2China y Singapur se comprometen a estrechar lazos militares.Para más información:http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/19/content_15510784.htm ÁFRICAHermanos Musulmanes toman la plaza Tahrir en protesta contra el aumento de poder de los militares.Para más información: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12301371-angry-crowds-in-egypt-as-west-warns-military-over-power-grab?liteMubarak 'clinically dead,' Egypt state news agency reportshttp://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/06/hold-mubarak.htmlhttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-brotherhood-20120619,0,6272082.storyhttp://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/20/12312164-42000-modern-day-slaves-rescued-but-millions-in-bondage-trafficking-report-says?litehttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-tahrir-protest-20120620,0,7177984.storyhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2012/06/18/actualidad/1340033350_449765.htmlhttp://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/contra-militares-egipcios-ocupam-tahrir-na-marcha-do-milhao-5250606#ixzz1yKlDn1MIhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/elecciones-presidenciales-en-egipto-ejrcito-dice-que-30-de-junio-entregar-poder-a-presidente_11955081-4http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/en-medio-de-la-divisin-egipto-elige-presidente_11954778-4http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/06/16/egypte-60-ans-de-lutte-entre-islamistes-et-militaires_1719616_3212.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world/middleeast/islamist-candidate-is-apparent-victor-in-egypt-as-military-cements-its-powers.html?ref=world&gwh=3E9E32FD78F56DAF4AA9A05FFCDEECE5Incertidumbre por el estado de salud del ex Presidente egipcio.Para más información:http://diario.elmercurio.com/2012/06/20/internacional/_portada/noticias/D8D6F950-49B3-4E23-B8E1-0C0DA374F83E.htm?id={D8D6F950-49B3-4E23-B8E1-0C0DA374F83E}http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12303160-egypts-hosni-mubarak-reportedly-clinging-to-life-in-military-hospital?litehttp://www.economist.com/node/21556941http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/19/world/egypt-revolution-election/index.html?hpt=wo_c1http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/mubarak-esta-clinicamente-morto-diz-agencia-estatal-5253837http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/la-vida-de-mubarak-penderia-de-un-hilo_11957624-4http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18515556http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15513503.htm1.5 millones de niños inminentes víctimas de muerte por hambre en África occidental.Para más información:http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/20/12313643-15-million-children-in-imminent-danger-of-starvation-in-west-africa?liteDecenas de muertos en choques religiosos en Nigeria.Para más información:http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/19/12294892-dozens-killed-in-nigeria-religious-riots?litehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/world/africa/3-churches-in-northern-nigeria-are-attacked.html?ref=world&gwh=798630F590299F7BDD634CB6F27E09A1http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-06/20/content_15513503.htmhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18517418http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/06/17/nouvelle-vague-de-violence-contre-des-eglises-au-nigeria_1719941_3212.htmlRuanda cierra oficialmente sus tribunales populares "gacaca" por genocidio.Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2012/06/18/genocide-le-rwanda-clot-officiellement-ses-juridictions-populaires-gacaca_1720824_3212.htmlOTRASMás aportes al FMI, entre exigencias de los Brics.Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1483592-mas-aportes-al-fmi-entre-exigencias-de-los-brics#comentarSegún reporte de ONG existen 21 millones de personas en situación de trabajo forzado.Para más información: http://thecnnfreedomproject.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/01/rights-group-21-million-now-in-forced-labor/?hpt=wo_c2"The Economist" presenta su informe semanal: "Business this week".Para más información: http://www.economist.com/node/21556990

Yes, I went back to the East Side Gallery my firstweekend, as it was not closed on Sunday most shopping is closed) I have been in Berlin for one week thus far, with nearly three months to go.  It has been a very busy week, and it did not just involve getting situated.  But, yes, that took some effort and time as well.  So, what have been up to in the shadow of the TV tower that is featured in any movie that wants to depict Berlin as a destination?  First, yes, getting situated.  I am staying near the Hertie School's Center for International Security, which is just off of Alexanderplatz.  The apartment has much of what I need, but I had to go out and get a pillow (made in Canada!), a printer, groceries, and a residence permit.  Yes, the country of Max Weber is very bureaucratic.  Because there is much demand these days for all kinds of paperwork, I was lucky to snare an appointment on the farthest southern edge of Berlin.   I got my paperwork stamped, so I can reside in Berlin officially.  woot!        President of Hertie, the Chinese former VM, and Tobias BundeSecond, it turns out that my timing is good and the Hertie School is a happening place.  Tobias Bunde, one of the researchers here, is also a/the organizer of the Munich Security Conference which happened the weekend I arrived.  So, he brought a former Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs to a packed room (the Hertie students are from all over and they are keeners) where she presented her take on what happened at Munich and what are the major trends in international relations.  I found her to be the best representative of the Chinese government: her English was great, she was not overly polemical, she knew her audience, and so forth.  She definitely presented a biased point of view, but a clear one that was well asserted.  She noted for instance that only four panels out of a hundred at the conference were on Gaza. She pointed that the discussions on that and on Ukraine were focused on problems, not solutions.  But she was not pressed to offer any solutions. She contrasted the threat to freedom of the seas--that it is a problem for commercial shipping in the Red Seas but only a threat to American warships in the South China Sea.  Hmmmm.  She talked about Asia's long peace, she seems to be omitting the occasional Indo-Pakistan conflict.  Speaking of omissions, she argued that occupation never works, and that this something the Americans should have known in 2003 and the Russians should have known two years ago.  I was tempted to ask about Tibet or perhaps Chinese intentions towards Taiwan, but the event was for students.  It was a great way to jump into things and meet a bunch of folks.No pics of Peter K, but of other important thinkersAnother event was a session with Peter Katztenstein--one of the most important scholars in both International Relations and Comparative Politics for the past fifty years.  Required reading, indeed.  He was presented his latest book project (no retirement yet) that is pretty complex, raising meta questions about our thinking and about our need to think about uncertainty.  It was similar to Debbi Avant's presidential address at the ISA a couple of years ago.  He gave us a few chapters, the crowded room had read it, and so it was mostly Q&A.  After the talk, he sat near me and we chatted a bit.  That he has written books comparing Germany and Japan was not lost on me given my latest projects.  Next week, there will be a conference I am crashing at Hertie on the state of Zeitenwende and whether other countries are experiencing it as well.  Huh?  Oh, this refers to a speech by Germany's Chancellor  Olaf Scholz shortly after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, that we live in a watershed moment, that we need to have a revolution in foreign and defense policy.  He committed to a lot more defense spending and ending German dependence on Russian energy.  The big questions are: how much of this has and is happening and whether other countries are rethinking their place in the world. I hope to find out next week.Third, I have been getting some work done.  I have started arranging interviews for the German case, finalizing the details for a trip to Finland in April to do that case study, doing the same for a research presentation at Central European University in Vienna in a few weeks (and, yes, nailing down the details for an Alps ski trip).  I also revised three chapters of the Steve/Dave/Phil book before Dave tries to find some interest at the ISA in April.  I hope to do my turn on the rest of the book in the next week.  Fourth, I have, of course, been touristing.  I spent last weekend and today walking around this part of Berlin.  I am far more familiar with west Berlin, as I have been largely based at hotels in west Berlin.  My first walks were more targeted as I was looking for grocery stores (and google maps kept lying about where they were).   Some observations, which may be due to change over time or may be due to East Berlin being a bit different than West Berlin:Less adherence to the guidance of the little green/red Ampelmännchen, as I saw more people walking despite the red signs.  Is this a sign that German society is breaking down?Or is that the walk signals in East Berlin are too damned short?  I can't tell you on how many streets I have been stuck in the middle (mostly where the trams go) as the light turns red very quickly.I don't remember this much graffiti all over the place last time.  On the bright side, when a store or something has nice wall art, the vandals or artists paint elsewhere.Lots of reconstruction and renovations going on.Lots more Five Guys burger places than I can recall.  I haven't tried them yet, as I am mostly doing my own modest cooking (this apartment's kitchen is not well equipped, so no baking and only basic dinners).  I did start off my time here with currywurst and chips, but I think my go-to cheap food will be kebabs/shawarma stuff.  I did happen to walk past an Indonesian place, so I will be returning to that neighborhood when I am tired of my own cooking.Today's walk was more random, as I would head in one direction and then find something interesting on the map.  Which took me to a memorial for those who the East German government killed at the Berlin Wall, which, yes, has been down longer than it has been up.  I learned a great deal:I should have realized how dynamic the interplay between Communist government and those seeking to escape would be.  The wall such as it was kept evolving as the government learned via the escapes and attempts.Part of the memorial showingwhere the house got built over by the wallIncluding tunneling!  57 people got out through one tunnel--amazing.The wall itself caused more people to want to leave as it signaled more repression.The evolution of the barrier included destruction of a church (one dedicated to Reconciliation!) and the movement of dead bodies from a graveyard, it involved boarding up and then destroying houses.   There were a fair amount of German tour groups going through this area, so yes, still much interest even as it recedes in our memories. The other new experience for me is a 21st century gym.  I have mostly exercised on ultimate fields, bike rides through neighborhoods, the treadmill in our basement, and the occasional hotel fitness center.  There is a spiffy, reasonable place near me that has the stuff I need (treadmills, space to stretch to try to fix my balky knee) and far more stuff.  The denizens are in much, much better shape than I am, doing all kinds of exercises that I would not attempt, so that has been a funky distraction while I sweat out the pastries I have been buying.  The bakeries here are good, and, yes, they like their donuts.  I have resisted mightily but not entirely.  Next week, I will report what I learned at zeintenwende-fest.    Some random pics from my walks: Vegetarian butcher?  Funky signs, not sure there is an actual cafe here.

With the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive despite billions in armaments and months of training, the post mortems have begun.

They follow: The West was too slow in providing missiles and aircraft; Russia had too much time to prepare trenches and minefields; Ukraine needed more time to learn combined-arms tactics and employ Western armor effectively. Yet underlying all these excuses was a broader analytical failing that has yet to be acknowledged: flawed and often facile historical analogies led defense planners to underestimate Russia's resilience.

Even today, with the horrific costs of overconfidence plain to all and Ukraine at a crucial crossroads, the same flawed analysis of the Russian adversary persists.

Time and again, policymakers and commentators based their expectations of the war based on flawed historical parallels. One example is Russia's acceptance of mass casualties and use of "human wave" attacks where they lose three or more soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty.

Time and again — right up to the present — commanders and commentators cite this as a sign of severe Russian weakness. Whether discussed in the jargon of an "asymetrical attrition gradient," or simply referring to Russian soldiers as "cannon fodder," analysts frequently note that such profligacy with human lives is a legacy of ponderous Soviet and Tsarist armies.

But what they fail to note is that this tactic often brought victory. Tsarist armies took massive casualties in battles with Swedish, Persian and Turkish forces as they built the Russian empire. In defeating Napoleon, the Russians suffered as many casualties as the French despite the advantage of fighting on their home ground and their familiarity with the Russian winter.

Soviet Marshal Zhukov absorbed 860,000 casualties to the Germans' 200,000 at the Battle of Kursk in World War II. He also lost 1,500 tanks to the Germans' 500, yet Kursk is remembered as a great triumph that crushed Hitler's final hopes of victory. Can one imagine Germany celebrating its superior casualty ratio while being defeated by Stalin's hordes?

However shocking this tactic may be, it is a resource that Moscow has and Kyiv does not. Consider the battle for Bakhmut and the daily bulletins trumpeting Ukraine's success in killing thousands of Russians, right up to the moment that Bakhmut fell to Wagner Group mercenaries — weirdly reminiscent of the Pentagon's body-count bulletins in the Vietnam war.

At Bakhmut Ukraine lost the indispensable cream of its army to hordes of dispensable Russian convicts-turned-storm troopers in doomed defense of a strategically insignificant town that President Zelenskyy vowed would not fall. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43.

Losing Bakhmut hurt Ukrainian morale, but it is Russian morale that pundits say is shot. And they remind us that military disasters sparked Russian uprisings in the past — in 1905 after defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, or the debacle of WWI that led to the collapse of the Romanov dynasty in 1917.

Given their hardships and suffering, why wouldn't Russians do it again and overthrow Putin? Pundits often ignore that, after a decade of economic chaos and global humiliation in the 1990s, Putin is respected for restoring stability and national pride. Tsar Nicholas II, by contrast, was rather more like Boris Yeltsin — weak and out of touch, reliant on hated advisers, presiding over chaos.

It's also likely that, unlike a distant debacle with Japan or European carnage triggered by an Austro-Serbian dispute, many Russians believe in this war because they see Crimea and Donbas as historically and culturally Russian.

Whether it stems more from deep-seated imperial attitudes or a decade of anti-Western propaganda, Russians still back Putin and even take pride in standing up to the best NATO can throw at them. An effort to appreciate the views of Putin and his people is not being "pro Russian" even if we find those views wrong or repugnant.

On the contrary, such an approach is key to "thinking in time" with accurate historical analogies, and vital to avoiding the conceit of assuming that Russian soldiers or citizens will behave as we would.

On the eve of Ukraine's counteroffensive, U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley declared that Russians "lack leadership, they lack will, their morale is poor, and their discipline is eroding." Of course, if your main historical lesson is that Russian armies crack under strain, then you look closely for signs of dissent and soon find a looming collapse.

This is how superficial history joins with confirmation bias to produce flawed analysis. Stymied by fierce Russian fighting, Ukrainians troops themselves told Milley he was wrong: "We expected less resistance. They are holding. They have leadership. It is not often you say that about the enemy."

As Kyiv's crisis deepens and recriminations spill out in public, commanders at all levels of the Ukrainian Armed Forces agree that they and their NATO advisers badly misjudged Russian tenacity: "This big counteroffensive was based on a simple calculation: when a Moskal [slur for ethnic Russian] sees a Bradley or a Leopard, he will just run away."

But what about taking the fight to Russia? Former CIA Director General David Petraeus predicted that Russian resolve could "crumble" in response to Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow. Such strikes "bring the war to the Russian people" and might convince Putin's regime that, like the USSR's Cold War quagmire in Afghanistan, Russia's current war in Ukraine is "ultimately unsustainable."

In fact the old Soviet elite did not see the Afghan war as unsustainable, nor were they much concerned about public opinion. It took both a generational transition and a bold new leader who prioritized improving ties with the West — Mikhail Gorbachev — to finally manage an exit.

The point is not that war isn't costly. The Afghan war was, and the Ukraine war is even more so. The point is that accepting defeat in a major war that was justified as a vital national interest is unlikely until there is both a new leader and turnover in the ruling elite.

As for "bringing war to the Russian people" by bombing Moscow, when did that ever work? NATO brought the Kosovo War to the Serbian people in 1999 by bombing Belgrade, and it only rallied them to the side of dictator Slobodan Milošević; 25 years later, Serbs remain strongly pro-Russian and anti-NATO. And when Chechen rebels bombed Moscow and other Russian cities in the early 2000s, it only rallied Russians around Putin and helped justify his increasingly authoritarian rule.
These aren't mere historical quibbles, but illustrations of flawed analogies that framed both strategic expectations and tactical decisions. And they have cost dearly, in both Ukrainian lives and now Western support. Confidence in Washington-Brussels elites falls even as officials still claim that Ukraine is winning and Putin "cannot outlast" the West.

In fact, as NATO empties its warehouses of equipment and misses deadlines for producing new munitions, it's hard to conclude otherwise unless one is trapped in another oversimplified WWII analogy: that of America as the "arsenal of democracy."

Many have contrasted America's innovative private arms producers with Russia's technology-starved state factories, predicting that Moscow would soon exhaust its munitions. Instead, Russia has consistently belied the "all brawn and no brains" narrative, not only outproducing the West in tanks, artillery and shells but defying sanctions to develop new precision-guided bombs, drones and missiles. Perhaps those discounting Russian ingenuity forgot the Katyusha multiple-rocket launcher, a legendary artillery weapon that both the Germans and Americans copied in WWII.
With a looming crisis in efforts to keep Kyiv supplied with munitions, it is useful to look closer at American arms production in WWII, when the "arsenal of democracy" was in certain respects more like Putin's economy than Biden's. But today Washington faces a complex set of institutional obstacles: "least-cost production models," contractor aversion to stockpiling, export restrictions, and environmental regulations the likes of which do not trouble Putin. A final lesson from WWII's "armaments race" is a caution against technological hubris such as that seen in today's gushing about the superiority of Western Leopard or Abrams tanks over the Russian T-72 and T-80. Germany's Tiger tank was clearly superior to the Soviet T-34 in WWII, but the latter was cheap, reliable, and easy to produce in numbers; at Kursk, Soviet tanks outnumbered German ones by 2:1. So as NATO planners and media pundits take up the "cannon fodder" refrain again with reference to the heavy losses Russians are taking as they advance in the battle for Avdiivka, these planners and pundits would do well to consider a quip famously attributed to Soviet wartime leader Josef Stalin: "Quantity has a quality all its own."

Friday May 12 we had the annual Hoover monetary policy conference. Hoover twitter stream here.  Conference webpage and schedule here (update 5/24 now contains videos.) As before, the talks, panels, and comments will eventually be written and published. The Fed has experienced two dramatic institutional failures: Inflation peaking at 8%, and a rash of bank failures. There were panels focused on each, and much surrounding discussion.  We started with a little celebration of the 30th anniversary of Taylor (1993), which put the Taylor rule on the map. As Andy Levin pointed out in the discussion, academic immortality comes when they omit the number after your name. Rich Clarida, Volker Weiland and I quickly outlined some academic influence. John Lipsky added some very interesting commentary on how the Taylor rule was important on Wall Street, and specifically from his experience at Salomon Bros. The second panel on financial regulation was a smash. Anat Admati chaired, with presentations by Darrell Duffie, Randy Quarles, and Amit Seru. Duffie showed how online banking has taken over, and the combination of twitter and online banking makes runs happen much faster than before. You don't have to stand in line, you can all push "withdraw" at once. He also showed a glaring hole in liquidity regulations: A bank cannot count as liquidity its ability to use the discount window at the Fed. Seru covered some of his recent work, showing just how many banks have lost 10% or more of their asset value, and thus the value of their equity. (Nobody mentioned commercial real estate, the next shoe to drop.) They gently disagreed, Darrel viewing more liquidity and better liquidity rules as the main solution, and Amit more equity. All seemed to agree that the current regulatory mechanism is fundamentally broken. Randy gave a thoughtful, eloquent, and impassioned talk laying to rest the common notion that "deregulation" caused SVB to fail. It would have passed all the stress tests. This will be important to read when the papers are all available. I take the implication that the regulatory structure is, again, fundamentally broken. No, more of the current regulations would not have helped. But Randy didn't say that. Peter Henry next presented "Disinflation and the Stock Market: Third World Lessons for First World Monetary Policy" (a paper with Anusha Chari), discussed by Josh Rauh and Chaired by Bill Nelson. A key innovation, they use stock market reactions to measure whether disinflations are a success on a cost/benefit basis. Large inflations seem to end with stock market expansions. Moderate disinflations don't really do much for stock markets. Most disinflationary reforms fail.Over lunch, Haruhiko Kuroda, Former Governor, Bank of Japan updated us on the Japanese situation. He is confident 2% inflation will return soon. Niall Ferguson and Paul Schmelzing presented "The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises 1587-2020," (with Martin Kornejew and Moritz Schularick), with Barry Eichengreen discussing and Michael Bordo chair. A taste: The paper concludes that lender of last resort operations do work, and also create moral hazard. Barry had an eloquent discussion, noting among other things that not all balance sheet expansions are the same. Look for those in the written versions. Next, Mickey Levy presented The Fed: Bad Forecasts and Misguided Monetary Policy, Steve Davis discussing and  Jim Wilcox chair. The Fed -- and most industry analysts -- completely missed 8% inflation, both ahead of time and as it was happening. Why? How can the Fed do better? (And why is the Fed not asking this question?) To me, it looks like the forecast is not much more than an AR(1) reversion to 2% inflation. The paper has a good summary of how Fed forecasts are made, along with recommendations for institutional improvement.  Steve Davis had an excellent discussion, pointing to a central incentive problem. The Fed uses forecasts to try to shape expectations. Like pubic health authorities, it can be afraid to reveal actual fears. I also see conceptual flaws -- not much attention to supply or fiscal policy, using the Phillips curve as a causal model and as a model in itself, too much attention to the one-period link from expected inflation to inflation, and too much attention to the forecast rather than risk management; what do we do if things come out differently. The conference day ended with the traditional policy panel, with Jim Bullard (talk here), Philip Jefferson (talk here), Jeff Lacker, and Charlie Plosser, Chaired by John Taylor. Bullard pointed to the huge fiscal stimulus as a source of inflation, warming my heart. He opined that this stimulus is fading, making him hopeful for a soft landing. He presented the following chart. This is a very interesting measure of how much "stimulus" is sitting out there in the economy. The government did write a lot of checks, that went straight to people's bank accounts, and eventually were spent, driving up inflation. On the other hand, I am still a bit shocked that we're running $1 trillion deficit despite beyond-full employment and output revving at every bit that the "supply" side of the economy can produce. What's your measure of fiscal stimulus? Which forecasts inflation? This is a very provocative and interesting idea. Jefferson gave a great talk. He has the measured cadence of a seasoned central banker, but speaks very clearly and directly.  He started by announcing his appointment as vice-chair, which got a well deserved ovation. He then jumped right in: The title of the conference "How to Get Back on Track: A Policy Conference" is potent. Its intent and ambiguity are striking. First, the title presupposes that U.S. monetary policy is currently on the wrong track. Second, the webpage for this conference advances a puzzling definition of the phrase "on track." How so? According to the Hoover webpage, "A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth" (emphasis added).1 As this audience knows, there are macroeconomic models that permit disinflation with no slowdown in economic growth, but the assumptions underlying these models are very strong. It's not clear, at least to me, why such a strict metric would be used to assess real-world monetary policymaking....I loved this. It shows he took the time to read up on the conference, and I love seeing basic premises challenged. Later, this struck me as thoughtful: I want to share with you a few strategic principles that are important to me. First, policymakers should be ready to react to a wide range of economic conditions with respect to inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and financial stability. The unprecedented pandemic shock is a good reminder that under extraordinary circumstances it will be difficult to formulate precise forecasts in real time. Our dual mandate from the Congress is especially helpful here. It provides the foundation for all our policy decisions. Second, policymakers should clearly communicate monetary policy decisions to the public. Our commitment to transparency should be evident to the public, and monetary policy should be conducted in a way that anchors longer-term inflation expectations. Third—and this is where I am revealing my passion for econometrics—policymakers should continuously update their priors about how the economy works as new data become available. In other words, it is appropriate to change one's perspective as new facts emerge. In this sense, I am in favor of a Bayesian approach to information processing.The first point brings us back to the problem that the Fed has so far been too silent about: How did it miss 8% inflation? And how to operate when such huge misses are possible? The Fed seems to have been making a forecast, then announcing a policy path that works for the forecast, and then trying to stick to it. In this first principle you see a quite different view. Let's call it data-dependent rather than time-dependent. This is a conference about the Taylor rule. Should the Fed look at more than inflation and employment? Well, yes and no according to these comments. And when models are not certain, distrust and update.Plosser and Lacker previewed an upcoming paper on the Fed's deviation from rules. Stay tuned. The evening started with a delightful speech by Sebastian Edwards on Latin American inflation. Stay tuned for that too. Videos should be up soon, and written versions as fast as we can get authors to turn them in. This is just a teaser!  Update: Videos are now up, with some more commentary here.

This article addresses the issue of technology transfer in the context of institutional conditions of this process with particular focus on intermediary institutions, such as technology parks. The study presents the role of institutions in the effective process of technology transfer. The research conducted by the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development and the Association of Organizers of Innovation and Entrepreneurship Centres in Poland was used. ; Anna Protasiewicz - University of Bialystok, Poland ; Karolina Trzaska - University of Bialystok, Poland ; Anna Protasiewicz - MSc, Faculty of Economics and Finance, University of Bialystok ; Karolina Trzaska - MSc, Faculty of Economics and Finance, University of Bialystok ; Anna Protasiewicz - a.protasiewicz@uwb.edu.pl ; Karolina Trzaska - k.trzaska@uwb.edu.pl ; 49 ; 68 ; 2 ; Allen, J. (2007). Third Generation Science Parks. Manchester: Manchester Science Parks. 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The top 100 science and technology clusters. In S. Dutta, B. Lanvin & S. Wunsch-Vincent (Eds.), Global Innovation Index 2020. Who Will Finance Innovation? (pp. 43-63). Ithaca – Fontainebleau - Geneva: Cornell University – INSEAD - WIPO. Retrieved from https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2020-chapter2.pdf. ; Ciborowski, R. (2016). Międzynarodowy transfer technologii a innowacyjność krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej [International technology transfer and innovation in Central and Eastern European countries]. Białystok: PTE Oddział w Białymstoku. ; Dąbrowska, J. (2011). Measuring the success of science parks: performance monitoring and evaluation. Manchester: Manchester Science Park. Retrieved from https://www.cmimarseille.org/sites/default/files/newsite/manupls/pdf4.pdf. ; Dutta, S., Lanvin, B., & Wunsch-Vincent, S. (Eds.) (2020). Global Innovation Index 2020. Who Will Finance Innovation?. Ithaca – Fontainebleau - Geneva: Cornell University – INSEAD - WIPO. 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Der Verlust der biologischen Vielfalt stellt eines der größten Umweltprobleme dar. In der 1992 gegründeten Konvention zur Biologischen Vielfalt (CBD) koordinieren sich nun die bislang 196 Mitgliedsstaaten in ihrem Bestreben, die Biodiversität zu erhalten. Jedoch wurden die globalen Biodiversitätssziele für 2010 weit verfehlt. Die Analysen des vierten Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-4) sowie aktuelle wissenschaftliche, globale Studien zeigen auf, dass bei derzeitigen Entwicklungen auch die in Aichi (Japan) beschlossenen Biodiversitätssziele des Strategischen Planes für die Periode bis 2021 nicht erreicht werden (Tittensor et al. 2014). Sich dieser Entwicklung entgegenzustellen ist eine besonders schwierige Aufgabe für biodiversitätsreiche Länder des globalen Südens, die Umweltschutzziele mit ökonomischen Interessen koordinieren müssen. Peru ist eines der 20 megadiversen Länder der Erde, Mitglied der CBD und verfolgt eine ambitionierte Strategie zum Schutz und zur nachhaltigen Nutzung von Biodiversität. Zum anderen ist Perus ökonomische Entwicklung auf Expansion und Extraktion von natürlichen Ressourcen ausgerichtet. Politische Maßnahmen zum Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt sind somit stets einem starken Interessenkonflikt ausgesetzt. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, am Beispiel Perus Ansatzpunkte zu identifizieren, mit deren Hilfe die Politik zum Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt effektiver gestaltet werden kann. Nach einer Einleitung in die Debatte der Effektivität der Biodiversitätspolitik und einer Vorstellung der Fallstudie Peru werden die folgenden wissenschaftlichen Fragestellungen untersucht (die Nummerierung entspricht der jeweiligen Publikation): 1. Welcher Narrative bedienen sich peruanische Biodiversitätsexperten, um das Problem des Biodiversitätsverlustes und ihre Perspektive auf eine nachhaltige Entwicklung zu beschreiben? 2. Wie sind Biodiversitätsnarrative im Verhältnis zur geschichtlichen Entwicklung Perus entstanden und welchen Einfluss hatten diese Bewegungen auf den nationalen Diskurs? 3. Wie bewerten lokale Experten die Auslöser und Effekte des Biodiversitätsverlustes und welche Schlussfolgerungen können daraus für die nationale Politik gezogen werden? 4. Inwieweit ist der Schutz der Biodiversität in die Strategien der nationalen, politischen Sektoren integriert? 5. Welche Bedingungen bei der Landnutzungsplanung in Migrantengemeinden in der Pufferzone des Nationalparks Cordillera Azul ermöglichten die Integration von lokalem und technischem Wissen zur Bildung von adaptiver Kapazität? Für die Betrachtung des Problems "Biodiversitätsverlust" und der Herausforderung, Naturschutzpolitik effektiver zu gestalten, war eine Verwendung von verschiedenen methodologischen Blickwinkeln notwendig. So wurden 72 semi-strukturierte, qualitative Einzelinterviews mit Experten, die im Bereich der Biodiversitätsschutzes tätig sind, durchgeführt. Durch die Anwendung des theoretischen Samplings wurde sichergestellt, dass möglichst verschiedene Perspektiven und Akteursgruppen repräsentiert werden. Alle interviewten Experten wurden danach befragt, wie sie das Biodiversitätsproblem bewerten, auf welche Auslöser oder Ursachen es zurückzuführen ist und wie mögliche Lösungsansätze aussehen könnten. Unter Anwendung der Grounded Theory konnten dann die fünf Narrativgruppen "Biodiversity Protectionists", "Biodiversity Capitalists", "Biodiversity Traditionalists", "Biodiversity Localists" and "Biodiversity Pragmatists" identifiziert werden. Publikation 1 analysiert die Narrativgruppen und diskutiert ihre Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede in den fünf biodiversitätsrelevanten Kategorien "Konzept von Biodiversität", "Rolle von Akteuren", "Werte- und Wissenssysteme und Nachhaltigkeit" sowie "politische Lösungsstrategien". Publikation 2 setzt die Narrativgruppen in den historischen Kontext, auf den sie sich aufgrund ihrer Argumentationslinien beziehen. Für Publikation 3 wurden im Rahmen des partizipativen Prozesses zur Entwicklung einer neuen Biodiversitätsstrategie im Jahre 2012 Fokusgruppendiskussionen mit verschiedenen, von Regionalregierungen entsandten Experten aus Politik, Forschung, Wirtschaft und Naturschutzverbänden durchgeführt. In diesen Fokusgruppen - Diskussionen sollten die Experten die wichtigsten Auslöser und Effekte des Biodiversitätsverlustes in ihrer Region bestimmen. Durch die Anwendung einer qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse wurden diese Auslöser und Effekte charakterisiert und gruppiert. Es wird so ein Kontext des Biodiversitätsverlustes aufgezeigt, anhand dessen sich eine Reihe wichtiger Implikationen für die nationale Biodiversitätspolitik herauskristallisieren. Die Berücksichtigung dieser Implikationen in den Strategien der nationalen, politischen Sektoren wird in Publikation 4 untersucht. Dem Ansatz der "Environmental Policy Integration" (EPI) folgend wird hier untersucht, inwieweit nationale, politische, biodiversitätsrelevante Sektoren in Peru das Ziel des Biodiversitätsschutzes in ihre politischen Strategien integrieren. Für die Untersuchung wurden neben den Strategieplänen der einzelnen Sektoren Experteninterviews geführt und weitere Dokumente analysiert, die sich im Zuge der Untersuchung als für die Fragestellung besonders relevant erwiesen. Für Publikation 5 wurden die Faktoren analysiert, die während der partizipativen Landnutzungsplanung in Migrantengemeinden in der Pufferzone des Nationalparks Cordillera Azul zur Entwicklung von adaptiven Kapazitäten geführt haben. Eine kartographische Analyse von Satellitenbildern half bei der Erhebung der Entwaldungsrate in der Region. Basierend auf qualitativen Interviews mit Gemeindemitgliedern und -vertretern, NGO-Angestellten und den Prozessmoderatoren wurden Faktoren identifiziert, die die erfolgreiche Integration technischen und lokalen Wissens in das Ressourcenmanagement der Gemeinden ermöglichten. In einer abschließenden Synthese ergeben sich vier Faktoren, die sich, basierend auf den Ergebnissen der induktive Forschungsansätze der Publikationen, als wesentlich für die Effektivität der peruanischen Biodiversitätspolitik ergaben. Diese sind: die Definition von Biodiversitätszielen unter Einbindung verschiedener Wissens- und Wertesysteme, das Operationalisieren von Biodiversitätszielen, die Kapazitätenentwicklung für integrierte Biodiversitätsplanung sowie die Bildung von Sozialkapital für Zusammenarbeit. Abschließend wurde untersucht, inwieweit diese Faktoren in den Aktivitäten des Biodiversitätssektors aufgegriffen werden. Als empirisches Material dienten dazu die Peruanische Biodiversitätsstrategie, qualitative Experteninterviews und Beobachtungen aus der Teilnahme am partizipativen Prozess zur Erstellung der Biodiversitätsstrategie. ; Biodiversity loss is one of the most pressing global environmental problems of our generation. Member states to the Convention on Biological Diversity are developing national biodiversity strategies to conserve biodiversity in their countries. In the current global negotiations, different financial mechanisms are developed to particularly support poor, biologically diverse countries in the global South in their conservation efforts. In order to assure effectiveness of those efforts, research is needed to shed light on the policy processes in those countries. My research aims at developing a model to evaluate the effectiveness of biodiversity policies on various levels. As a first step towards this ambitious target, factors that are found to be crucial for the performance of biodiversity policies are evaluated in separate sub-projects and published as articles. Those aspects will later add to a comprehensive model for the assessment of biodiversity policies. Article 1 (Conservation Narratives in Peru - Envisioning Biodiversity in Sustainable Development) use grounded theory to distinguish the five groups of conservation narratives Biodiversity Protectionists, Biodiversity Traditionalists, Biodiversity Localists, Biodiversity Pragmatists and Biodiversity Capitalists. These groups are each presented along comparable aspects, such as the location of biodiversity in relation to the human life, valuation and knowledge systems, participation and leadership, substitutability of natural capital and its predominant political strategy. The presented results present an analytical scaffold to organise the conservation debates in Peru. These findings serve an example of how to break down the complex concepts of biodiversity conservation and sustainability and relate them to their political context and local implementation. Article 2 (Incorporating Biodiversity Conservation in Peruvian Development - A history with different episodes) connects the narrative groups identified in article 1 to historical conservation movements in Peru. This article analyses how these different groups emerged and started to develop a discourse on biodiversity conservation. After conducting qualitative interviews with stakeholders, discourse groups were identified and described with regard to their historical appearance. While those different discourse groups do not automatically contradict or exclude each other, this article sheds light on the different historical situations and motivations underlying these discourses. Article 3 (Learning from local knowledge in Peru—Ideas for more effective biodiversity conservation) explores the causes and effects that experts from Peruvian political regions connect to biodiversity loss. In four macro-regional workshops, experts from 22 Peruvian political regions were asked to state causes and effects of biodiversity loss in focus groups. Analysing this data, I show that even though biodiversity appears as a broad, complex concept of human-nature interactions, it can be clustered into different categories of tangible aspects. Furthermore I propose analysis of the problem of biodiversity loss in three dimensions of ecological impacts, human activities and developments, and political output. I argue that doing so can help enhancing transparency and effectiveness of biodiversity policies. Article 4 (Biodiversity Policy Integration as Conceptual Approach to Mainstreaming - Experiences from Peru) evaluates the inclusion of biodiversity conservation into sectoral policies along the dimensions inclusion, operationalization, coherence, capacity and weighting. Sectoral action plans, the design and institutional arrangement of policy instruments and qualitative expert interviews serve as the main sources for this study. As part of the participatory process leading to the development of the updated Peruvian Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), the integration of biodiversity targets into the national development plan, and the organisation of the different political actors in a national commission on biodiversity further help integrating the target of biodiversity. However, while the issues of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss are taken up by the strategy plans, they lack operationalization and institutional capacity for its implementation. Economic processes with a high potential of threats to biodiversity, such as overfishing, ecosystem degradation through extractive processes and infrastructural expansion are only marginally targeted. Possible institutional mechanisms for the coordination of political interests, such as an integrated land-use planning on the regional and local level still lack a necessary legal framework and appear to lack the necessary political commitment. Artikle 5 (Building adaptive capacity in changing SES: Integrating knowledge in communal land-use planning in the Peruvian Amazon) analyses adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems (SES) in the buffer zone of Cordillera Azul national Park (Peru). Communal participative land use planning (Zonificación Participativa Comunal– ZPC) is a tool designed for communities to organize their land use integrating conservation measures, while building knowledge on the SES. In this article, we assess to what extent the ZPC process has led to the development of adaptive capacities within SES around local communities along the dimmensions social capital, learning capacities, adaptive management and governance. Analysing these dimensions helps understanding the needs for resilient SES to cope with environmental, political, economic or social changes. It was particularly the long-term process building social capital between the instrument and local stakeholders, as well as continuously integrating, testing and reflecting technical and local knowledge that enabled communities to develop internal mechanisms supporting their adaptive capacities. Furthermore, taking leadership throughout the process, communities could adjust the ZPC to be integrated in existing formal and informal institutions governing resource use. The factors specification of contextual biodiversity targets, operationalization, social capital and the use of integrative planning instruments were identified as conditioning effective biodiversity governance. In a test of the Peruvian National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) strengths and weaknesses are assessed and options for effective implementation are identified.

In the past decades, the issues in real estate have received an increasing amount of attention worldwide. One of the main reasons is that the boom-bust cycles in real estate markets were attributed to the underlying causes of numerous financial crises, such as the Nordic banking crisis in the early 1990s, Japan's "Lost Decade" of 1991–2000, the East Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the recent global financial crisis erupted in the American 2007 (Bordo and Jeanne, 2002; Crowe et al., 2013; Hartmann, 2015; Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). Real estate is deemed to be an important factor in the real economy as it makes a major contribution to GDP and provides prosperity and jobs in most countries. In addition, real estate also plays a crucial role in the financial system, since construction projects and residential property purchases are usually credit-financed. Leveraged banks rely heavily on real estate collateral to reduce the risk of much f their household and commercial lending. A widespread downturn in property prices will have a severe impact on the financial stability. Since the explosion of the global financial crisis in 2007, a considerable number of economic models and methods have been designed specifically to anatomize the root causes and key events of it. As a part of the growing body of literature, the focus of this study centres on the old question of what we can learn from this crisis. However, this thesis attempts to provide different insights by employing a newly developed empirical method and economic concepts. There are several lessons that we can learn from the financial crisis. First, countries should watch for early warning and now-casting hints signalling a future crisis. As the crisis in many countries was caused by excessive increases in property prices and/or rapid credit growth, one of the major tasks is to develop renewed empirical methods and econometric tests to detect excessive asset price developments. Meanwhile, these methods are of particular importance in the sense of macroprudential policy. Broadly speaking, macroprudential policy is seen as aiming at financial stability. In terms of the specific goals of macroprudential policy, the general view is that it is all about limiting the risk and costs of systemic crises. Since boom-bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy (Hartmann, 2015). Against this background, we employ the newly developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in the Chinese and German housing price cycle. Because both countries have experienced large markup in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, there are increasing worries that they might be destined to a similar fate. Nevertheless, we find that actual house prices are not to be disconnected significantly from underlying economic fundamentals and there is no evidence of an emerging speculative housing bubble at the present time in China and Germany. Further to this, we also investigate house price developments across other OECD countries. In contrast to Germany, the majority of OECD countries, such as Ireland, New Zealand, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and the US, have experienced strong house price growth in the early 2000s, which cumulated in 2007–2008 into an astounding burst of speculative house price bubbles. Aiming to assess the genuine validity and reliability of the univariate screening toolkit, we also provide the test statistics for these countries. The test results deliver timely warnings of underlying misalignments, vulnerabilities and tail risks that predisposed the international housing market to the financial crisis in 2007–2009. The second lesson we could learn is that policymakers should also be mindful of the channels through which the financial crisis erupted. Since the explosion of the crisis in 2007, most of the blame has been placed on the regulatory authorities and investment banks. Nevertheless, in the instance of the subprime mortgage catastrophe, we should not point the finger only at them. Rather, this crisis was the collective creation of the world's central banks, homeowners, mortgage lenders and investors (Petroff, 2007). Against this background, this thesis also attempts to scrutinize the housing investment behaviour of households. Based on Coeurdacier et al.'s(2011) earlier work, we develop a stylised stochastic model to show that risky steady state house prices have a significant impact on housing investment choice. With increasing risk from aggregate income, the financial market and the housing market, the model predicts that agents tend to invest more in housing and financial assets. We also address the issue of housing investment from the perspective of housing affordability in a dynamic life-cycle modelling framework. The main purpose is to assess quantitatively the impact of the affordability constraints on households' optimal consumption, mortgage, portfolio choices and poverty status over the lifetime. Meanwhile, we also investigate the interaction between borrower-based macroprudential policies and social policies aimed at improving poverty and fostering home ownership and credit availability. Through studies of different scenarios, we find that the affordability constraints are crucial determinants of households' investment behaviour and their poverty status in both prime and subprime mortgage markets. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis implies that in light of the age profile of households and features of mortgage credit markets, the magnitudes of the borrower-based macroprudential policies are needed to be carefully assessed in order to minimise the potential conflicts with other social policies. ; In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten haben die Immobilienprobleme zunehmende Aufmerksamkeit weltweit erhalten. Einer der Hauptgründe dafür ist, dass der Boom-Bust-Zyklus auf den Immobilienmärkten den eigentlichen Ursachen der zahlreichen Finanzkrisen zugeordnet wurde, wie zum Beispiel der nordischen Bankenkrise in den frühen 1990er Jahren, Japans "verlorenem Jahrzehnt" von 1991 bis 2000, der ostasiatischen Finanzkrise im Jahr 1997 und der jüngsten globalen Finanzkrise, die in Amerika 2007 ausbrach (Bordo and Jeanne, 2002; Crowe et al., 2013; Hartmann, 2015; Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). Immobilien gelten als ein wichtiger Faktor in der Realwirtschaft, da sie einen wichtigen Beitrag zum BIP leisten und zu Wohlstand und Arbeitschancen in den meisten Ländern beitragen. Darüber hinaus spielen Immobilien auch eine entscheidende Rolle im Finanzsystem, da Bauvorhaben und der Kauf von Wohneigentum in der Regel mit Hilfe von Krediten finanziert werden. Mit Fremdkapital finanzierte Banken verlassen sich stark auf Immobiliensicherheiten, um das Risiko der Privathaushalts- und Gewerbekredite zu reduzieren. Ein umfassender Rückgang der Immobilienpreise hat einen starken Einfluss auf die Stabilität des Finanzsystems. Seit dem Ausbruch der globalen Finanzkrise im Jahr 2007, wurden eine beträchtliche Anzahl von Wirtschaftsmodellen und Methoden speziell entwickelt, um die Ursachen und deren Schlüsselereignisse analysieren zu können. Als Teil der wachsenden Ansammlung von Literatur fokussiert sich diese Studie auf die alte Frage, was wir aus dieser Krise lernen können. Diese Doktorarbeit versucht allerdings unterschiedliche Einblicke durch Einsatz einer neu entwickelten empirischen Methode und wirtschaftlicher Konzepte anzubieten. Es gibt einige Lektionen, die wir aus der Finanzkrise lernen können. Zunächst sollten die Länder die Frühwarnungen und kurzfristigen Hinweise, die eine künftige Krise signalisieren, dringend beachten. Da die Krise in vielen Ländern von übermäßigem Immobilien-Preisanstieg und/oder rasantem Kreditwachstum verursacht wurde, ist es eine der wichtigsten Aufgaben, erneuerte empirische Methoden und ökonometrische Tests zu entwickeln, um einen übermäßigen Anstieg der Vermögenspreise zu erkennen. Zugleich sind diese ökonometrischen Tests im Sinne der makroprudenziellen Politik von besonderer Bedeutung, weil Boom-Bust-Zyklen an den Immobilienmärkten die Hauptfaktoren in systemischen Finanzkrisen darstellen (Hartmann, 2015). Allgemein gesprochen kann makroprudenzielle Politik als Ausrichtung auf Finanzstabilität gesehen werden. In Bezug auf die spezifischen Ziele der makroprudenziellen Politik ist die allgemeine Sicht, dass es sich um die Begrenzung der Risiken und Kosten der systemischen Krisen handelt. Vor diesem Hintergrund verwenden wir die neu entwickelten rekursiven Einheitswurzeltests, um den Anfang und das Ende der möglichen Spekulationsblasen im chinesischen und deutschen Immobilienpreiszyklus herauszufinden. Da beide Länder starke Preiserhöhungen nach der globalen Finanzkrise von 2007-2009 erlebt haben, gibt es zunehmende Sorge, dass ihnen ein ähnliches Schicksal bestimmt sein könnte. Allerdings finden wir, dass die aktuellen Immobilienpreise nicht von den wirtschaftlichen Fundamentalfaktoren deutlich zu trennen sind, und es gibt zurzeit keine Hinweise auf eine aufkommende spekulative Immobilienblase in China und Deutschland. Überdies haben wir Immobilienpreisentwicklung in den anderen OECD-Ländern geprüft. Im Gegensatz zu Deutschland haben die meisten OECD-Länder, wie Irland, Neuseeland, Spanien, die Niederlande, Großbritannien und die USA, ein starkes Immobilienpreiswachstum in den frühen 2000er Jahren erlebt, das in den Jahren 2007-2008 kumulierte und zu dem erstaunlichen Platzen von spekulativen Immobilienpreisblasen geführt hat. Um die echte Gültigkeit und Zuverlässigkeit des eindimensionalen Screening-Toolkit zu belegen, legen wir auch die Untersuchungsstatistiken für diese Länder vor. Der Untersuchungsnachweis liefert rechtzeitige Warnungen vor zugrunde liegender Falschausrichtung, Schwachstellen und Restrisiken, die den internationalen Immobilienmarkt in der Finanzkrise der Jahre 2007-2009 fehlgelenkt haben. In der zweiten Lektion erfahren wir, dass die politischen Entscheidungsträger sich der Kanäle bewusst sein sollten, durch die die Finanzkrise ausgebrochen ist. Seit dem Ausbruch der Krise im Jahr 2007 wurden die Vorwürfe überwiegend gegen die Regulierungsbehörden und Investmentbanken erhoben. Dennoch sollten wir im Falle der Subprime-Hypothekenkrise nicht nur mit dem Finger auf diese zeigen. Diese Krise war eigentlich die kollektive Erschaffung der weltweiten Zentralbanken, Hausbesitzer, Kreditgeber und Investoren (Petroff, 2007). Vor diesem Hintergrund versucht diese Arbeit auch das Investitionsverhalten der Haushalte in Immobilien eingehend zu untersuchen. Basierend auf Coeurdacier et al.'s (2011) früherer Arbeit entwickeln wir einem stilisierten stochastischen Modell um zu zeigen, dass riskante stationäre Immobilienpreise einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf das Wahlverhalten bei Immobilieninvestition haben. Mit zunehmendem Risiko aus dem Gesamteinkommen, dem Finanzmarkt und dem Immobilienmarkt prognostiziert das Modell, dass Agenten tendenziell mehr in Immobilien und Finanzanlagen investieren. Wir befassen uns auch mit der Frage der Immobilieninvestitionen aus der Sicht der Immobilienerschwinglichkeit in einem dynamischen Lebenszyklus des Modellierungsrahmens. Der Hauptzweck besteht darin, die Auswirkungen der Erschwinglichkeitsbeschränkungen auf den optimalen Konsum, die Portfolioauswahl, die Hypothek und den Armutsstatus der privaten Haushalte über die gesamte Lebensdauer quantitativ zu beurteilen. Außerdem untersuchen wir auch die Interaktion zwischen Kreditnehmerbasierte makroprudenzielle Maßnahmen und sozialpolitischen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Armut und zur Förderung von Wohneigentum sowie Kreditverfügbarkeit. Durch Untersuchungen von verschiedenen Szenarien verdeutlichen die Ergebnisse der Modellkalibrierung, dass die Erschwinglichkeitseinschränkungen entscheidende Faktoren für Investitionsverhalten der Haushalte und ihren Armutstatus im Prime und im Subprime-Hypothekenmarkt sind. Darüber hinaus impliziert die Sensitivitätsanalyse, dass angesichts des Altersprofiles von Haushalten und die Grundzüge von Hypothekenmärkten die Einflußgrößen der Kreditnehmerbasierten makroprudenziellen Maßnahmen sorgfältig beurteilt werden müssen, um mögliche Konflikte mit anderen Sozialpolitiken zu minimieren.