Suchergebnisse

Abstract. This paper is a continuation of the authors' previous paper (Part 1) on the feasibility of ensemble flood forecasting for a small dam catchment (Kasahori dam; approx. 70 km2) in Niigata, Japan, using a distributed rainfall–runoff model and rainfall ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were given by an advanced four-dimensional, variational-ensemble assimilation system using the Japan
Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (4D-EnVar-NHM). A noteworthy feature of this system was the use of a very large number of ensemble members (1600), which yielded a significant improvement in the rainfall forecast compared to Part 1. The ensemble flood forecasting using the 1600 rainfalls succeeded in indicating the necessity of emergency flood operation with the occurrence probability and enough lead time (e.g., 12 h) with regard to an extreme event. A new method for dynamical selection of the best ensemble member based on the Bayesian reasoning with different evaluation periods is proposed. As the result, it is recognized that the selection based on Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) does not provide an exact discharge forecast with several hours lead time, but it can provide some trend in the near future.

1. How the internet is a useful crisis management tool -- 2. How communication technology must be harnessed in an emergency -- 3. How government response is crucial -- 4. How supplementary lifeline utilities must be developed -- 5. How voluntary support must be catered for -- 6. How to deal with psychological stress -- 7. Why ripple effects must be analysed -- 8. Why preparation for disaster must include basic precautions -- 9. What to do in the event of a tsunami -- 10. How to distinguish between tsunami advisories : warning and watch -- 11. The hospital's role in crisis management -- 12. Why hospitals must have continual access to water -- 13. How schools can be used as evacuation centers (1) -- 14. How schools can be used as evacuation centers (2) -- 15. How to get the injured to hospital -- 16. How to call an ambulance -- 17. How to deal with rumors -- 18. How to prepare for the breakdown of electrical substations (lifeline utilities) : an example from the Taiwan earthquake -- 19. How a disaster can be turned into a lesson -- 20. The mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake (1) : how the media was unhelpful -- 21. The mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake (2) : how to keep means of communication open -- 22. The mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake (3) : why it is critical to restore a region's industry -- 23. The mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake (4) : why there should be private insurance against earthquake damage -- 24. How to plan for evacuation during torrential rain -- 25. How to prepare for hazardous secondary effects -- 26. What we can learn from Hurricane Katrina -- 27. The great Sichuan earthquake : why wide-area-coverage evacuation centers are needed -- 28. Why everyone must take precautionary measures -- 29. Why we need to repeat simulated experiences -- 30. When knowledge is not enough -- 31. How knowledge acquired by experience is superior -- 32. What to do if a war breaks out while in a foreign country -- 33. What to do if you get caught in an emergency abroad -- 34. What to do if you get arrested while abroad -- 35. How to avoid terrorist bombing attacks -- 36. What to do if you find an intruder in your hotel room (1) -- 37. What to do if you find an intruder in your hotel room (2) -- 38. How to respond to a medical emergency abroad -- 39. Why analysis of real-life experiences are needed -- 40. How to prepare for emergencies on a routine basis -- 41. Why portable toilets are essential -- 42. How typhoon psychology is fatal -- 43. Why specific roles should be allocated -- 44. How specific roles should be allocated -- 45. How to deal with personal risk (1) -- 46. How to deal with personal risk (2) -- 47. How to prevent fires at home (1) -- 48. How to prevent fires at home (2) -- 49. How to ensure the safety of your infant -- 50. How to ensure water supply -- 51. How to maximize the use of flashlights -- 52. Why the need for self-insurance -- 53. How to deal with bankruptcy of financial institutions -- 54. How the lifting of payoffs ban has affected risk -- 55. What clothing and other personal effects are appropriate -- 56. What to do in an emergency when driving or using an elevator -- 57. Why the need to fall back on "self-help" when overseas -- 58. How spyware infects your computer -- 59. Why internet auctions are at your own risk -- 60. How to counter phishing fraud -- 61. How to protect yourself against credit card skimming (1) -- 62. How to protect yourself against credit cards skimming (2) -- 63. Why businesses should not neglect on-going training -- 64. Why a physical distribution system is necessary -- 65. How to compensate for an incomplete crisis management education -- 66. How effective life protection products could be developed -- 67. Why the need to develop next-generation disaster prevention technologies -- 68. How products could be developed in support of disaster response -- 69. What criteria to use in assessing a crisis -- 70. What are the crisis management efforts directed at? -- 71. How to maintain communication between operations staff, residents and specialists -- 72. Why the atomic industry must maintain ongoing dialog with its community -- 73. How the multi-faceted check system works -- 74. How indirect damages may far surpass your assumptions -- 75. How management can respond swiftly - the feed-forward mode (1) -- 76. How management can respond swiftly - the feed-forward mode (2) -- 77. How to predict disasters -- 78. How to establish a quick response setup -- 79. Why a backup system is needed -- 80. How to counter weaknesses in supply chain management -- 81. When reading the manual won't do -- 82. What is the crux of crisis management? -- 83. How the Kamban (Just In Time : JIT) system can be tweaked to support production -- 84. How managerial behavior matters -- 85. How to tap the know-how of security companies -- 86. How to protect your computers -- 87. How to guard against computer viruses -- 88. Why risk financing is an absolute -- 89. How office location affects crisis management -- 90. How to set the optimum security level of information systems -- 91. What lessons were learned from the Fukuchiyama line train derailment? -- 92. What safety measures and environmental policies should chemical companies adopt? - 93. How to deal with asbestos damage -- 94. How intellectual property infringement is spreading -- 95. How to secure food safety and information reliability -- 96. How the natural sciences, arts and social sciences can collaborate -- 97. How to make your investor relations work -- 98. What are the consequences of irresponsible media coverage? -- 99. How to prevent personal information leakage -- 100. Why the need for an informatics education towards problem-solving -- 101. How compliance should be reconsidered : organizations that comply with laws and regulations while satisfying ethical requirements considering autopoietic theory.

Introduction to the volume by Alan Kirman -- Part I Finitary methods of statistical equilibrium -- 1.Enrico Scalas, University of Sussex, "Continuum and thermodynamic limits for a wealth -- distribution stylised model" -- 2. Doyn Farmer Oxford University, Mauro Galegatti, Corrado di Guilumi and Shimon Landini, "Applications of statistical physics for rebuilding macroeconomics" -- 3. Raymond Hawkins, University of California Berkley, "Information, Inattention, and the Discount Function" -- 4. Juergen Mimkes, University of Paderborn -- 5. Hiroshi Yoshikawa, University of Tokyo/Rissho University -- 6. Yuji Aruka, Chuo University, Japan, "Aoki's Japanese textbook of stochastic economic dynamics" -- 7. Didier Sornette, ETH zurich -- 8. rank Schweitzer, ETH Zurich -- Part II Data driven analysis by econophysic -- 9. Hideaki Aoyama, Kyoto University, "Hodge decomposition of Economic Networks" -- 10. Yoshi Fujiwara, University of Hyogo, "Non -- self Averaging and Economic Network" -- 11. Yuichi Ikeda, Kyoto University, "Simple Interacting Agent Models with Reconstructed Economic Data" -- 12. Hiroshi Iyetomi, Niigata University, "Collective Phenomena in Economic Systems" -- 13. Hiroyasu Inoue, University of Hyogo, "Reactions of economy toward various disasters calculated by firm -- level simulation" -- 14. Rosario Mantegna, University of Parelmo, Eugene Stanley, Boston University -- 15. Wataru Souma, Nihon University, "Income distribution, inequality, and entropy" -- 16. Thomas Lux, University of Kiel.

Providing appropriate immunization information during the perinatal period is important for improving immunization rates among infants and children; however, the distribution of immunization information by healthcare workers (HCWs) is not standardized in Japan. We investigated HCWs' attitudes toward childhood immunization and factors related to vaccine hesitancy. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive survey of HCWs involved in childhood immunization in Niigata City, Japan, from November 2017 to January 2018. We assessed contextual, individual and group, and vaccine/vaccination-specific influences. Of 290 HCWs, 139 (47.9%) returned completed questionnaires. Most HCWs (87/139, 64.9%) reported providing immunization information verbally to parents; 51/87 (58.6%) spent fewer than five minutes doing so. Pediatricians provided vaccines based on the parents' best interest, whereas public health nurses and midwives emphasized government policy. Nurses had greater hesitancy related to personal perceptions and social/peer factors than pediatricians (p < 0.001). Nurses were significantly more likely than pediatricians to suggest that children receive more shots than necessary (p < 0.01). Nurses tended to have more negative attitudes toward vaccination and little awareness of immunization promotion compared to pediatricians. Thus, all HCWs involved in childhood immunization should receive sufficient information to provide timely and appropriate immunization to infants and children.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a method to examine the differences in behaviour during a post‐quake period.Design/methodology/approachFieldwork and questionnaires were used to collect the households' members' movement behaviours after the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake. In total, three study areas were selected in Kawaguchi town (Niigata Prefecture) in order to enhance how the visualisation process can provide support in better understanding the behaviour during evacuation and recovery process. For this purpose the Space‐Time‐Cube (STC) was used to represent and analyse residents' movement paths over time.FindingsDifferences appear in the spatio‐temporal paths of the three study areas, implying a connection between the geographical location and movement patterns. The city centre shows disorganized Spatio‐Temporal‐Patterns (STPs) during the first week of the recovery process, eventually becoming organized after the rescuers' arrival. Moving towards the isolated areas of the town, a progressive STP organisation can be observed, explaining the faster response after the seismic event.Research limitations/implicationsSpatio‐temporal data are difficult and costly to collect, especially if a long period of time passes between the seismic event and the survey.Practical implicationsThe STC can be used as tool to enhance the disaster management techniques and provide support in crisis situations.Originality/valueThe paper provides a practical approach to investigate the reactions after a seismic event and can be used in larger study areas to develop better strategies in disaster management.

The growing shortage of human resources for managing landscape in the water environment has led to problems concerning the preservation of the landscape in Japan. For developing people have the awareness to preserve the landscape, it is important to understand the process of how regional residents develop attachment toward the water environment in their area. This paper identified factors influencing the frequency of the visits to the water environment and the attachment of residents toward the Fukushima-gata lagoon, Niigata Prefecture, Japan, as a case study, while focusing on changes in the lifestyle of the regional residents. The findings are as follows: (1) The target households frequently used Fukushima-gata lagoon for fishing and for picking edible wild plants and gathering reeds to make thatched roofs before the reclamation project was carried out by the government in Fukushima-gata lagoon. They also frequented Fukushima-gata lagoon for walking and cherry blossom viewing after the reclamation project was implemented. (2) Even the fact that the distance from the lagoon to their place of residence increased after the project did not lose their attachment to the lagoon. (3) It was suggested that the project contributed to increase the attachment of regional residents towards Fukushima-gata lagoon because of multiple factors, such as playing in the water, livelihood opportunities, and recreational use. (4) Changes in the attachment of regional residents toward Fukushima-gata lagoon before and after the reclamation project was carried out by the government corresponded to changes in the lifestyle of the local residents before and after the project.

PurposeResearchers have argued that social networks within a community have positive effects on people's behavior in disasters. The Japanese government is testing online SNS at the municipal level with the intention to improve community building, democratic processes, and disaster management. This paper seeks to explore the use of social networking services (SNSs) in government and disaster in Japan.Design/methodology/approachThis study is based on a literature review of social capital, social support, disaster, and social software. Two exploratory case studies of local government SNS in Yatsushiro city, Kumamoto prefecture and Nagaoka city, Niigata prefecture provide empirical evidence. Consequently, the role of local SNS for social capital development and disaster is discussed.FindingsYatsushiro's solution seems to be sustainable, Nagaoka's SNS is in decline. Both have to compete with popular SNS like Mixi and lack critical mass. There are some indications that government‐initiated SNS helps to build social capital and utilize it in times of a disaster.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper contributes to the research on eParticipation and Public Management by describing an internet‐based social software application and its embeddedness in the administrative organization. Any conclusions must be tentative, especially as a consequence of the non‐representative number of users and the lack of testing in a disaster.Practical implicationsThe paper provides practitioners with two real life case studies on the implementation and use of local SNS in government.Originality/valueThe paper offers theoretical and practical insights into the use of social software in government. Moreover, it connects current trends in government 2.0 to disaster research.

Introduction: urbanism and Japanese modern -- World War One and the city idea -- The ideology of the metropolis -- Colonizing the country -- The past in the present -- The cult of the new -- Epilogue: urbanism and twentieth-century Japan

Abstract

Background
Low socioeconomic position (SEP) has been linked to an increased risk of dementia. However, little is known about the association between SEP trajectory and regional brain volumes related to dementia.


Methods
A random sample of community-dwelling older adults (n = 428, age = 73.1 ± 5.5) living in Tokamachi City (Niigata Prefecture, Japan) without medical histories of dementia, Parkinson's disease, and depression who underwent automated assessment of brain volumes on magnetic resonance imaging and responded to a self-administered questionnaire survey in 2017. We measured SEP in childhood (household SEP at age 15), young adulthood (education), mid-adulthood (the longest occupation), and late adulthood (current wealth), and further performed group-based trajectory analysis to identify lifetime trajectory patterns on SEP. Multivariate regression models were employed to investigate the association between SEP trajectories and 4 regional brain volumes related to the development of Alzheimer's disease (ie, entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, amygdala, and the parahippocampus), the most common type of dementia.


Results
We found 3 distinct SEP trajectories (stable middle class [68%], downward [23%], and upward [9%]). Compared to those who experienced stable middle class, older adults who experienced the upward SEP mobility had significantly larger hippocampus (β: 213.2, 95% confidence interval: 14.7, 411.8). On the other hand, older adults who experienced downward SEP mobility showed no significant differences in any of the 4 brain structural volumes.


Conclusions
Our findings indicate that upward life-course SEP mobility is associated with larger volumes of hippocampus in old age. SEP trajectory may offer us a useful lens to enhance our understanding of the etiology of dementia.

AbstractPost‐earthquake fires are high‐consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low‐frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post‐earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter‐earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post‐earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post‐earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi‐oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source‐to‐source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post‐earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post‐earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post‐earthquake ignition probabilities.

The one of dangerous heavy metal among the others that had negative effect to the environment and human's health is Mercury. The environmental could be degradation from the quality when Mercury have got in to them and out of to the threshold value limit. Characteristics of Mercury are very dangerous, Mercury have many characteristics : toxic, persistent, bioaccumulation, and it's could transfer from one place to far away by hydrological cycle. The administrative country boundary, geological and geographical condition could not be an effective factor to prevent the effects of Mercury. The important case that could be getting up the conscious of human is Minamata Disease. Minamata is a village in Kumamoto, Japan which there were many thousands of the victims of Mercury in 1953. P.T. Chisso Corporation, a chemical industry had gotten out the waste contained Mercury to the Minamata Bay that cause disease to the people who lived in Minamata Bay. Minamata Disease is the biggest one of environmental case in Japan, Niigata Minamata Disease was the other case. After the case of Minamata disease, The Disease that caused by Mercury was still occurring in many countries in the world, for example ; Guatemala, Rusia also Indonesia. The effect of Mercury to the environment and human is not a local or regional problem, but it is a global problem that it needed the international action to manage the Mercury. Because of the dangerous characteristic of Mercury, There are no countries could be handle by itself to protect their citizen from the negative effects of Mercury. Countries around the world must have been built cooperation among them to manage all abot Mercury (trade, mining etc) Indonesia is one of countries which sign in The Minamata Convention on Mercury in Kumamoto, Japan in October 10th 2013. Minamata Convention on Mercury is a agreement of many countries in the world to prevent and save the environmental and human health from the negative effects of Mercury. The government of Indonesia had been made the regulation to follow up the agreement, it's Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2017. This regulation is to legitimate The Minamata Convention on Mercury and it has been the real action to prevent negative effects of Mercury. Merkuri merupakan salah satu logam berat yang sangat berbahaya bagi lingkungan dan kesehatan manusia. Merkuri yang terlepas ke dalam lingkungan, melalui proses biogeokimia dapat masuk ke dalam rantai makanan dan membahayakan kesehatan manusia. Sifat-sifat Merkuri yang dapat membahayakan lingkungan menyebabkan keberadaan Merkuri di lingkungan harus dapat dikontrol melalui upaya-upaya nyata. Merkuri bersifat toksik, persisten, bioakumulasi dan dapat berpindah dalam jarak jauh di atmosfer melalui siklus hidrologi, sehingga tidak ada batasan-batasan geografis, geologis maupun administratif yang dapat membatasi pergerakan dan perpindahan Merkuri di lingkungan. Kasus fenomenal yang memicu kesadaran manusia terhadap bahaya keracunan yang disebabkan oleh Merkuri adalah permasalahan penyakit minamata (Minamata Disease) yang menimpa penduduk kota Minamata di Kumamoto, Jepang tahun 1953. Penyakit tersebut disebabkan oleh keracunan Merkuri yang terkandung dalam limbah industri yang dibuang oleh pabrik kimia P.T. Chisso Corporation. Minamata Disease mulai dikenal dan muncul di wilayah lain yaitu Niigata Minamata Disease, kasus-kasus tersebut merupakan dua bencana polusi terbesar di Jepang.Permasalahan-permasalahan keracunan Merkuri terjadi di negara-negara lain misalnya ; Guatemala, Rusia termasuk Indonesia. Permasalahan yang ditimbulkan oleh Merkuri terhadap lingkungan bukanlah suatu permasalahan lokal ataupun regional, Merkuri merupakan permasalahan global yang memerlukan penanganan bersama dengan melakukan kerjasama secara internasional. Sifat-sifat bahaya yang dimiliki oleh Merkuri menyebabkan suatu negara tidak dapat bertindak sendiri untuk melindungi warganegaranya terhadap bahaya yang dapat ditimbulkan oleh Merkuri. Oleh Karena itu, diperlukan kerjasama antarnegara secara global untuk mengatur pengadaan, penggunaan, pengelolaan dan penanganan Merkuri. Pemerintah Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang ikut menandatangani Konvensi Minamata Mengenai Merkuri (Minamata Convention on Mercury) tanggal 10 Oktober 2013 di Kumamoto, Jepang. Konvensi Minamata merupakan kesepakatan negara-negara untuk melindungi dan menyelamatkan lingkungan hidup dari bahaya Merkuri. Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2017 mengenai Pengesahan Minamata Convention on Mercury (Konvensi Minamata mengenai Merkuri) merupakan wujud peran aktif Pemerintah Indonesia untuk upaya perlindungan dan penyelamatan lingkungan terhadap bahaya Merkuri.