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We consider a two-period Bayesian trading game where in each period informed agents decide whether to buy an asset ("government debt") after observing an idiosyncratic signal about the prospects of default. While second-period buyers only need to forecast default, first-period buyers pass the asset to the new agents in the secondary market, and thus need to form beliefs about the price that will prevail at that stage. We provide conditions such that coarser information in the hands of second-period agents makes the price of debt more resilient to bad shocks not only in the last period, but in the first one as well. We use this model to study the consequences of issuing debt denominated in domestic vs. foreign currency: we interpret the former as subject to inflation risk and the latter as subject to default risk, with inflation driven by the information of a less-sophisticated group of agents endowed with less precise information, and default by the information of sophisticated bond traders. Our results can be used to account for the behavior of debt prices across countries following the 2008 nancial crisis, and also provide a theory of "original sin."

Xi Jinping swiftly centralized political power shortly after the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Congress in 2012, opposing what was predicted when he was elected general secretary. This action also compromises China's long-term efforts to avert an over-concentration of power among a few elites. This study deals with Xi's strong ascent to power, defined as the result of institutional change in China's political power game from the perspective of new institutionalism. The author identifies triggers of institutional change, ideas and norms introduced for changing informal institutions, and the actual transformation of formal institutions, arguing that Xi took advantage of social demand for reform coordination as well as some top elites' serious political misbehavior to commence institutional change for the centralization of political power. To do so, Xi introduced new reform ideas - systemic thinking and top-down design, originating from complex systems theory - in the name of coordinating and comprehensively deepening reform. Xi eventually succeeded in justifying the centralization of power and the establishment of central organizations to deepen reforms comprehensively and coordinate internal and external security. As a result, Xi seized power while practically nullifying the principle of division of work. (J Contemp China/GIGA)

Consumers who generate online reviews provide a vital information service for the buying public, influencing nearly half of all purchase decisions. This study focuses on factors that motivate online reviewer engagement (ORE). ORE is a contextually dependent psychological state characterized by varying degrees of altruistic and egoistic market-helping motives coupled with an individual's intrinsic motivation to review when the needs for autonomy, competence, and social relatedness are fulfilled. Amazon.com 's top reviewer community, which uses a public ranking system to motivate, recognize, and influence reviewer behavior, provides the study's context. Three reviewer types— indifferent independents (IIs), challenge seekers (CSs), and community collaborators (CCs)—all report altruistic motives; however, egoistic motives associated with rank and psychological need fulfillment vary. IIs fulfill autonomy needs by using the platform for self-expression, with rank exerting little influence. CSs view rank as a game to master. CCs, who have fully integrated the ranking system, perceive reviewing as an enjoyable, socially embedded experience that merits advocacy. This study extends engagement theory by linking market-helping motives and psychological need fulfillment with high levels of behavioral engagement. Thus, findings may help managers tailor reviewing environments to attract and retain a diverse and highly engaged reviewing community.

This paper differs from scientific papers describing current research. In line with the theme of this special issue, it challenges conventional risk management practice against the background of former research results successfully finished decades ago. It is well-known that conventional practice frequently results in budget overruns of large projects. International reviews document that. Severe delays of schedules are also well-known. This paper describes successful research results from almost three decades ago, which successfully challenges this severe problem and has led to new practices. The research involved is an unusual mix: Scandinavian researchers from psychology, statistical theory and engineering economy. The resulting procedure has been widely used since around 1990 and challenges conventional procedures. The procedure is documented to be able to yield statistically correct prognoses, when the "rules of the game" have been correctly followed. After a short summary of the basic situation, this paper summarizes the research, followed by some resulting experiences, focusing on two recent studies each of 40 infrastructures and other major projects. In both sets, the actual final cost largely equaled the expected project cost. This result is a marked change from international past and present experience. Finally, the need for further research and progress is discussed.

This article will examine the previously under-researched area of the under-representation and experiences of elite level minority (male) coaches in (men's) professional football in Western Europe. More specifically, the article will draw on original interview data with 40 elite level minority coaches in England, France and the Netherlands and identify a series of key constraining factors which have limited the potential for and realization of opportunities for career progression across the transition from playing to coaching in the professional game. In doing so, the article will focus on three main themes identified by interviewees as the most prescient in explaining the ongoing under-representation of minority coaches in the sport: their limited access to and negative experiences of the high level coach education environment; the continued existence of racisms and stereotypes in the professional coaching workplace; and the over-reliance of professional clubs on networks rather than qualifications-based frameworks for coach recruitment. Finally, the article will contextualize these findings from within a critical race theory perspective and will draw clear linkages between patterns of minority coach under-representation, the enactment of processes and practices of institutional racism, and the underlying normative power of hegemonic Whiteness in the sport.

Given limited resources and economic realities, how do politicians distribute monetary transfers in order to retain office? Previous work has largely focused on two models – a core model of rewarding loyal supporters and a swing model of purchasing the support of easily swayed voters. Empirical results have proven mixed, however. In this article, we argue that these mixed results are due to economic factors, which condition politicians' distributive strategies. In our model, we consider that politician and voters are involved in a repeated game, where past expectations condition future strategy. Current (core) supporters who receive few benefits and perceive themselves worse off than other, less loyal, groups are likely to be less loyal themselves tomorrow. In our model, politicians avoid this by providing their supporters consumption benefits directly, in the form of transfers, or indirectly, via strong economic growth. Where economic growth is good, politicians can distribute less to core supporters, who benefit from the rising economy. Where economic growth is weak, however, politicians make transfers to their core supporters to ensure future loyalty. We test our theory using data on federal transfers from the Russian Federal government to 78 Russian Regions from 2000–2008.

In the 16th Century, the polemical works of Machiavelli highlighted the ambiguity surrounding the virtue of prudence, especially when this virtue was applied to descriptions of the model warrior. Where did the boundary lie between prudence and deceptive dissimulation, that is to say, lieing? In his Examen de ingenios, Juan Huarte de San Juan employs the theory of the humors, along with a series of analogies –such as that based on the game of chess– to explore the ethical problem of prudence on the field of battle, demonstrating through analysis of this problem the laxity and open-mindedness characteristic of the author of this treatise. ; En el siglo xvi, las polémicas obras de Maquiavelo pusieron de relieve la ambigüedad que podía envolver la virtud de la prudencia, especialmente cuando esta se aplicaba a la descripción del guerrero modélico: ¿cuál era la frontera entre prudencia y disimulación engañosa, es decir, mentira? En su Examen de ingenios, Juan Huarte de San Juan utiliza la teoría humoral y una serie de analogías –como la del ajedrez– para explorar el problema ético de la prudencia en el campo de batalla, mostrando en el análisis del mismo la laxitud y mente abierta que caracteriza al tratadista

This article uses an agent-based model and Selectorate Theory to explore the micro-foundations of the systemic democratic peace. Leaders engage in an international bargaining game that can escalate to conflict. Upon resolving the dispute, leaders distribute winnings to domestic constituencies and stand for reselection. The model's assumptions about selectorate size in a democracy versus an autocracy make democratic leaders more accountable than autocrats and endogenously generates the dyadic democratic peace. The model shows no evidence of an autocratic peace, as mixed dyads are less likely to go to war than autocratic dyads. I further show that democratic leaders invest more resources in wars than predicted by the Nash equilibrium and also more than autocrats. This overinvestment by democratic leaders results in democracies winning more wars than autocrats. This model thus reinforces previous findings that democratic leaders respond to domestic reselection incentives by using more resources in conflict to gain a war-fighting advantage and help ensure victory. Finally, consistent with empirical results, I show that increasing the percentage of democracies in the system does not have a linear effect on the amount of conflict in the system. Below a certain threshold, increasing democracy has no effect on conflict, while after this threshold conflict decreases.

В статье исследуются концептуальные метафоры, используемые проправительственными и оппозиционными российскими СМИ с целью представления в определенной перспективе конфликта, продолжающегося с декабря 2013 г. Путем применения теории концептуальной метафоры и методов дискурс-анализа мы выделяем как сферы-источники метафоры (болезнь / безумие, торговля, театр, игра, криминал), так и ее сферы-мишени (российские и украинские политические лидеры, народы, территории и др.). Анализ аксиологического измерения этих метафор показал, что оба типа изданий применяют их с целью представить пророссийскую или украинскую сторону конфликта в негативном ключе, используя для этого разные сферы-мишени. ; The present study is dedicated to discovering the conceptual metaphors that are used by the Russian pro-government and opposition media in order to provide a particular perspective of the conflict that has taken place since December, 2013. By applying the theory of conceptual metaphor and methods of discourse analysis, we highlight both the sources of metaphor (disease / madness, commerce, theater, game, crime) and its targets (Russian and Ukrainian political leaders, peoples, and territories). We also analyze the axiological dimension of these metaphors and discover that in both types of media these metaphors are used to portray the sides of the conflict in a negative light, albeit with different targets.

This study shows the utility of the concept of diaspora for physical cultural studies, and particularly for thinking through sport in a Canadian setting. The capacity of diaspora theory to specify a matrix of real and imagined cross-border cultural, kinship, and social relationships makes it useful for understanding community (re)generation in sport settings. Relatively little about recreational cricket in the Caribbean and its diaspora has been documented, despite the sport's power as a symbol of Caribbean unity. My findings indicate that a group of first-generation Afro-Caribbean immigrants living in the Greater Toronto Area use a particular form of cultural production, the sport of cricket, to generate and maintain diasporic communities, that is, cross-border interpersonal networks with other Afro-Caribbean people who remain in their nations of origin, and who are dispersed throughout the United States, elsewhere in Canada, and England. Regardless of where they play, cricket matches are "home games" that allow players and spectators to lime (hang out) and (re)generate diasporic consciousness, that is, a sense of themselves as one people through the "authentic" Afro-Caribbean environment they create. The reproduction of Afro-Caribbean culture, community, and consciousness includes conflicts with South Asian and Indo-Caribbean diasporic groups.

Street children are the most excluded group of people in any society. The general attitude towards them is to criminalise and pathologise. The ''To-gather with Children Project'' (TCP) has been developed by the Maltepe University Research and Application Centre for Street Children (SOYAC) in Istanbul and implemented in conjunction with the General Directorate of Social Services and Child Protection Agency (SHC¸EK). SHC¸EK is the core state agency responsible for street children and their protection in Turkey. The TCP started in September 2010. Within the scope of this project, undergraduate psychology students visited SHCEK organisations for three hours on a weekly basis to engage with the children in joint activities that ranged from games and sports to training programmes, including helping the children with literacy skills. In June 2011, in-depth interviews were carried out with the children and their service providers for the purposes of evaluating the project. Findings are discussed from the Sociocultural Activity Theory, Child's Perspective, and Peer-based Intervention. This paper explores the outcomes of this research, which strongly put forward the importance of government-university partnership, of creating a socially safe environment through social partnership including peerbased intervention in working with street-involved children

Research in strategy has identified and tried to explain four types of rents: monopolistic rents, efficiency rents, quasi rents, and Schumpeterian rents. Building on previous work on political and institutional strategies, we add a fifth type of rent: influence rents. Influence rents are the extra profits earned by a firm because the rules of the game (laws, regulations, and informal rules) are designed or changed to suit it. To aid the analysis of the relationship between institutional context and firm performance and to provide a structure to guide research, we develop a framework with five key components: (a) an identification of the five fundamental problems of a market economy, (b) a typology that describes the five different types of institutions that emerge to solve these problems, (c) the market-ordering mechanisms used by institutions to solve these problems, (d) the common causes of weak institutional performance, and (e) generic strategies used by firms to exploit these weaknesses of an institutional context to enhance firm performance. We highlight potential applications of the framework as well as an illustrative research agenda that can advance the development of theory to explain the emergence and persistence of influence rents.

Concerns about terrorists smuggling nuclear bombs into the United States in container freight have led to demands for 100% inspection at either U.S. or foreign ports. However, under some circumstances, it may be possible to deter nuclear smuggling attempts with less than 100% inspection. Based on publicly available data, we quantify a game-theoretic model of terrorist decision making to understand the role of nuclear detection technologies in deterring nuclear terrorism. The results suggest that unless the defender imposes high retaliation costs on the attacker, 100% inspection is likely to be needed, and deterrence with partial inspection may not be achievable in practice even though it is possible in theory. On the other hand, when the defender can credibly threaten the attacker with costly retaliation, partial inspection may be sufficient to deter nuclear smuggling attempts. Sensitivity analysis of these results indicates that these observations are robust to assumptions about specific parameters in the model. Thus, for policy debates about how to prevent nuclear terrorism, consideration of the diplomatic stance on retaliation is as important as, or maybe even more important than, debate about the optimal percentage of containers to inspect.

AbstractWhen we're trying to articulate principles of justice that we have reason to take seriously in a world like ours, one way to start is with an understanding of what our world is like, and of which institutional frameworks promote our thriving in communities and which do not. If we start this way, we can sort out alleged principles of justice by asking which ones license mutual expectations that promote our thriving and which ones do otherwise. This is an essay in the how and why of nonideal theory: in particular, how and why principles of property come first and principles of justice second. Ownership conventions, and property law as it develops under the pressures of case by case dispute resolution, tend to become touchstones for conflict mediation down through generations. They may be imperfect, retaining vestiges of adaptations to ancient problems that no longer exist, yet still they work, coordinating expectations so as to make it easier for people to live well together.A priorireasons for endorsing principles of justice generally are not good enough. A good enough reason would be something like this: to endorsethisway of applyingthisprinciple inthiskind of circumstance is to support institutional frameworks that position us to play positive sum games.

En el siglo XVI, las polémicas obras de Maquiavelo pusieron de relieve la ambigüedad que podía envolver la virtud de la prudencia, especialmente cuando esta se aplicaba a la descripción del guerrero modélico: ¿cuál era la frontera entre prudencia y disimulación engañosa, es decir, mentira? En su 'Examen de ingenios', Juan Huarte de San Juan utiliza la teoría humoral y una serie de analogías –como la del ajedrez– para explorar el problema ético de la prudencia en el campo de batalla, mostrando en el análisis del mismo la laxitud y mente abierta que caracteriza al tratadista. In the 16th Century, the polemical works of Machiavelli highlighted the ambiguity surrounding the virtue of prudence, especially when this virtue was applied to descriptions of the model warrior. Where did the boundary lie between prudence and deceptive dissimulation, that is to say, lieing? In his 'Examen de ingenios', Juan Huarte de San Juan employs the theory of the humors, along with a series of analogies –such as that based on the game of chess– to explore the ethical problem of prudence on the field of battle, demonstrating through analysis of this problem the laxity and open-mindedness characteristic of the author of this treatise.