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Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely‐or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible‐does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy‐making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.

AbstractHow should one cope with complexity and uncertainty in mega infrastructure projects? While rational theories tend to eliminate or reduce these unruly conditions, the authors of this article are in search of a different approach to deal with the characteristics of complexity and uncertainty proactively. Three theoretical reflections are introduced to explore possible solutions: (1) the change of institutions to address the problem of excessively simple structures for making decisions on complex projects; (2) the shaping of a learning environment in order to deal with uncertainty and emergent properties; and (3) balancing the generation and the reduction of a variety of policy options in order to select a limited number of feasible options and to bridge the strategic exploration and the operational processes of decision making. Informed by this conceptual thought, concrete pathways are developed and discussed by means of a case study of the construction of a high‐speed railway line in the Netherlands.RésuméComment doit‐on gérer complexité et incertitude dans le cadre de mégaprojets d'infrastructure? Tandis que les théories rationnelles ont tendance àéliminer ou à minorer ces circonstances incontrôlées, cet article recherche une approche différente pour aborder les caractéristiques de la complexité et de l'incertitude de manière proactive. Trois axes de réflexion théorique sont présentés: la transformation des institutions, pour résoudre le problème des structures extrêmement simples confrontées à des décisions sur des projets complexes; la configuration d'un environnement d'apprentissage, pour faire face à l'incertitude et aux nouveaux éléments; l'équilibrage entre génération et réduction des diverses possibilités d'action publique, afin de sélectionner un nombre restreint d'options réalisables et d'harmoniser recherche de stratégies et processus décisionnels opérationnels. À partir de cette réflexion conceptuelle, des voies concrètes sont développées et analysées à travers une étude de cas sur la construction d'une ligne ferroviaire à grande vitesse aux Pays‐Bas.

Circular economy and urban metabolism concepts have recently received great attention both in the political and academic arenas, starting a roll-over process of the &ldquo ; take, make, and dispose&rdquo ; dominant economic model that is leading to an ongoing increase of resource consumption and waste generation. However, there is a relative lack of guidelines for introducing such concepts in a decision-making process able to support the design of appropriate policies and strategies and the definition of specific actions to cope with such challenges. This paper attempts to contribute to the recent efforts at incorporating these concepts in policy and decision-making processes by providing a methodology for the development of strategic plans for waste prevention and resource management. The proposed methodology, developed within the Urban_WINS project, combines different quantitative&ndash ; analytical and qualitative methods and tools, together with a participatory process. The methodology was tested in eight EU cities and allowed to formulate several measures and actions aimed at addressing the challenges posed by the current consumption patterns. Moreover, the participatory approach led to the legitimization of the strategic plans, as well as to raise awareness among stakeholders. Although it might require specific tailor-made adjustments, this methodology is suitable to be replicated in other contexts.

AbstractResponding to a disaster encompasses a myriad of humanitarian actions; the ultimate and crucial is immediate relief distribution. Making effective decisions in chaotic disaster environment is always complex and challenging. Decisions made here are heavily influenced by the decisions made in several related problem areas such as facility locations, relief supply chain, transportation, scheduling, and inventory management. While each of these problem areas has its own set of decision factors, several of these factors are also common in multiple problem areas. These common decision factors offer both an opportunity and a challenge. The challenge is to balance the relative importance of a factor that is common between one or more problem areas—one factor that is considered vital in one area may have a lower priority in another area. The opportunity here is to develop a common framework that can help all problem areas to work together to achieve the main objective of effectively distributing essential relief goods among affected people. While the literature has studied individual problem areas and their decision factors, an integrated view showing the linkages between multiple problem areas is missing. In this paper, we propose such an integrative framework. Based on a systematic review of the literature, we first identified problem areas that are linked to relief distribution and then identified the linkages between these areas. We synthesized the findings into a conceptual framework and validated it through a panel of experienced field experts who work in relief distribution. We framed our refined framework as an information ecosystem of humanitarian actions where relief distribution resides at the core. Such a conceptualization will not only enrich the in-depth understanding of humanitarian domain, but also offer insights for developing computer-based decision support systems for relief distribution.

The understanding of the way knowledge is built within organizations addresses the problem of systemic mistake in the decision making process. These kind of errors contradict the accepted definition of the organization as an efficient and rational tool for reaching goals. The study of organizations is not limited to the analysis of the firm. On the contrary, knowledge and practices produced within the organizations are played when organizations interact with others in wider contexts. From an organizational perspective, this paper seeks to how the inside and the outside overlap and influence each other. In both levels, organizations are political tools created to mobilize resources and knowledge with the goal of influence on other public and private organizations. Finally, this perspective allows understanding not only those mistakes which endogenous consequences but also those political business actions that, a priori, could be seen as contradictory. To this extent, the paper offers an organizational view in order to understand why, during the 1990s, the Argentine business supported an economic model that was contrary to its own interests. ; La forma en que se construye el conocimiento en las organizaciones permite comprender el problema de los errores sistemáticos en la toma de decisión. La existencia de este tipo de error contradice la concepción habitual de las organizaciones como herramientas eficientes y racionales construidas para el logro de objetivos. El estudio de las organizaciones no se limita al análisis de las firmas, sino que el conocimiento y las prácticas organizacionales las vinculan con los contextos más amplios en que se encuentran involucradas. Desde una perspectiva organizacional, se pretende comprender el modo en que el adentro y el afuera se yuxtaponen e influencian mutuamente. En ambos niveles, las organizaciones son finalmente herramientas políticas, cuyo fin es la movilización de recursos y saberes con el fin de influir sobre otras organizaciones públicas y privadas. Esta perspectiva permite, finalmente, comprender no sólo aquellos errores con efectos endógenos sino también aquellas acciones políticas empresarias que, a priori, pueden ser interpretadas como contradictorias. De este modo, se ofrece una lectura desde la sociología de las organizaciones orientada a comprender por qué, en los años noventa, los empresarios argentinos apoyaron un modelo económico contrario a sus intereses.

In an increasingly complex military operating environment, next generation wargaming platforms can reduce risk, decrease operating costs, and improve overall outcomes. Novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled wargaming approaches, based on software platforms with multimodal interaction and visualization capacity, are essential to provide the decision-making flexibility and adaptability required to meet current and emerging realities of warfighting. We highlight three areas of development for future warfighter-machine interfaces: AI-directed decisional guidance, computationally informed decision-making, and realistic representations of decision spaces. Progress in these areas will enable development of effective human-AI collaborative decision-making, to meet the increasing scale and complexity of today's battlespace.

AbstractParticipation in decision‐making procedures of young people in care is considered a key element that affects their current or future living circumstances and might improve the quality of decision‐making on and delivery of provided services.This narrative literature review, covering the period 2000–2016, focuses on the opportunities of young people to participate, the challenges and facilitators to participation, and the outcomes of care related to participation.Sixteen studies met our search criteria. Several studies show that young people seem to have limited possibilities to "meaningful" participation in decision‐making. Various challenges and facilitators in the participation process emerge with regard to the level of the young person, the professional, and the (sociocultural) context. None of the studies provides evidence for a connection between the "amount" of youth participation in decision‐making and/or treatment during the care process and the outcomes of residential care. Implications for research and practice are reflected upon.