Suchergebnisse

This book is a proceedings from the 'Beijing International Radiation Symposium', held in August 26-30, 1986. It summarizes the discussions and debates that took place in the field of atmospheric radiation, remote sensing and climate applications at the time. It focuses on the challenges and prospects for atmospheric radiation in relation to remote sensing, weather prediction and climate studies

I. The Formulation of the Research Problem and the Choice of the Right Methods -- II. Social Phenomena and Processes -- III. Concepts and Indicators -- IV. Kinds of Propositions -- V. Substantiation of Statements. Empirical Verification of Hypotheses -- VI. Explanation of Events -- VII. Construction of Theories -- VIII. Prediction of Events and Practical Applications of Research Results -- Index of Subjects.

This is just a short follow-up to my post yesterday with a few predictions. First about Netanyahu's future. Prior to Hamas' attack over the weekend, much discussion about Israel focused on the right-wing Netanyahu government, his continuing corruption trial, and his efforts to reduce the power of Israel's courts. For those who oppose Netanyahu, they […]

ADP private nonfarm has a blowout upside surprise of +497K vs. consensus +228K. For context, the m/m standard deviation of log first differences is 0.0028, vs. June reading of 0.0039. Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or "nowcast" for the BLS number […]

Radio is a resilient medium. As in different countries around the world celebrations are being planned to mark the 100th anniversaries of the first regular domestic radio services, early predictions of its demise have so far been proven wrong. Radio transmission remains overwhelmingly analogue in a world where digital switchover of television currently preoccupies many governments and audiences alike.

The modern‐day tax revolt in Massachusetts was initiated by passage of the property tax limitation measure Proposition 2½ in 1980. Predictions of draconian budget cuts never materialized due to state legislative modification of the initiative's provisions, and judicious use of local voter overrides. Massachusetts citizens have continued to bring tax issues to the ballot, with fairly reasoned outcomes.

Analyzes data from a 2002 survey by the Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University which identified differences on economic and social issues and view of the two major parties among 18-49 year-olds and those 50 and above; political implications; voting behavior predictions by age to 2022 based on a mathematical model.

Die Verfasser referieren Ergebnisse verschiedener empirischer Untersuchungen zur politischen Einstellung Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener in Rußland. Gefragt wird nach der Parteipräferenz, der Einstellung zu politischen Grundrichtungen der Transformation, der Einstellung zu Kirche und Militär sowie der Einstellung zu Politikern und politischen Institutionen. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse decken den Zeitraum zwischen 1990 und 1996 ab. Sie machen deutlich, daß die Jugend in Rußland über die Parlamentswahlen 1993 und 1995 sowie die Präsidentschaftswahlen 1996 eine stabile Zustimmung zu Demokratie und radikaler Gesellschaftsreform artikulieren und bei Wahlen Parteien und Kandidaten der politischen Mitte unterstützen. (BIOst-Wpt)

SPECIAL REPORT: 1995 Projections. Compensation & Benefits Review Assistant Editor Marlene L. Morgenstern recently queried several consultants to find out what is in store next year for the compensation and benefits fields. Their compensation analysis is presented below, followed by the regular Currents items. Other predictions can be found in the "Benefits" and "Pension and Retirement" sections of Currents.

THE CONVENTIONAL ANALYSES OF THE SITUATION IN EUROPE FAILED TO ANTICIPATE THE DYNAMIC FORCE OF DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST AND WEST. BY THE END OF THE 1980S ALL PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT EUROPEAN INTEGRATION WAS EXHAUSTED AND THAT THE POSITION OF WESTERN EUROPE IN WORLD POLITICS AND WORLD TRADE WAS DECLINING HAD PROVED OBSOLETE. THIS ARTICLE EXPLORES THE UNDERLYING STRUCTURE OF CHANGE IN EUROPE.

Using game theory, describes one concept of the centre, the central player, and introduces a concept of a strong centre, the dominant central player. With these concepts predicts what kind of coalitions will be formed. These prediction principles are confronted with data of cabinet formations in France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Ireland and The Netherlands (1945-1988). (Abstract amended)

AbstractA displaced Poisson process model allowing for stratified populations and "false negatives" is presented for describing the progress of certain chronic diseases. This model, which builds on earlier work by the authors, allows for the simple estimation of various parameters and distributions of interest in screening. A Monte Carlo simulation study illustrating and partially verifying the model predictions is given.