Suchergebnisse

This paper analyzes the political sustainability of the welfare state in a model where immigration policy is also endogenous. In the model, the skills of the native population are affected by immigration and skill accumulation. Moreover, immigrants affect future policies, once they gain the right to vote. The main finding is that the long-run survival of redistributive policies is linked to an immigration policy specifying both skill and quantity restrictions. In particular, in steady state the unskilled majority admits a limited inflow of unskilled immigrants in order to offset growth in the fraction of skilled voters and maintain a high degree of income redistribution. Interestingly, equilibrium immigration policy shifts from unrestricted skilled immigration, when the country is skill-scarce, to restricted unskilled immigration, as the fraction of native skilled workers increases. The analysis also suggests a new set of variables that may help explain international differences in immigration restrictions.

This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates including valuation measures, interest rates, and capital flows. I find empirical evidence that stock returns, portfolio investment flows, the term spread and default spreads help predict output growth in emerging markets. In particular, large capital inflows predict subsequent high GDP growth as do high term spreads. Conversely, higher default spreads on emerging market government debt signals lower future GDP growth. Results also suggest that the performance of global aggregates such as commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio contain information about the future state of the economy. I benchmark my results against the US and find that there are differences in information flows and the role of capital markets in predicting economic growth. My analysis extends previous findings in the macro-finance literature on the links between the real economy and financial market performance. Within emerging markets, a largely unexplored area of research is related to the study of mutual funds performance. In my second chapter, "Emerging Market Mutual Fund Performance and the State of the Economy" I propose a set of asset class specific predictive variables and exploit them in order to identify those funds that outperform the market in different phases of the economic cycle. I employ a comprehensive survivorship-bias free universe of global and regional emerging market funds and use a Bayesian framework that incorporates predictability in manager skills (stock selection and benchmark timing skills), fund risk loadings and benchmark returns by exploiting ex-ante business cycle related state variables. Results provide empirical evidence of return predictability and the economic value of active management in emerging markets. My final dissertation chapter studies market integration and segmentation and their effects on return predictability. In "Mutual Fund Return Predictability in Partially Segmented Markets" (co-authored with B. Gillen, A. Timmermann and R. Wermers) we generalize existing models for Bayesian asset selection by considering both integrated and partially segmented market models. We find that regional state variables can be used to identify a significant time-varying alpha component among a large sample of funds with a pan- European, European country, or European sector focus. Specifically, the default yield spread, term spread, dividend yield, short interest rate and market volatility, as well as macroeconomic variables tracking consumer price inflation and growth in industrial production prove valuable in identifying, ex-ante, funds with superior performance. Our analysis also suggests that allowing for segmentation in market risk factors enhances risk-adjusted performance

Die Beilegung von Investitionsstreitigkeit erfolgt innerhalb des ICSID-Systems durch die nicht ständigen und für jeden Fall neu gebildeten ICSID-Schiedsgerichte. Mit Institutionen zur Sicherung der homogenen Entwicklung der Rechtsprechung wie die EG-Generalanwälte, die EG-Vorabentscheidung, das WTO-"Appellate Body" oder die einem Berufungsverfahren gleichstehende Verweisung an die Große Kammer des EMRGH ist allerdings das ICSID-System nicht ausgestattet. Vielmehr ist die Möglichkeit einer Berufung innerhalb des ICSID-Systems ausdrücklich ausgeschlossen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die Homogenität der ICSID-Rechtsprechung geprüft, um festzustellen, ob die Rechtsprechung der für jeden Fall neu gebildeten ICSID-Schiedsgerichte derartige Dissonanzen aufweist, die das ICSID-System reformbedürftig machen. Die Prüfung der Homogenität der ICSID-Rechtsprechung bezieht sich auf die Auslegung von gleichen bzw. ähnlichen Bestimmungen völkerrechtlicher Investitionsschutzabkommen sowie des ICSID-Übereinkommens selbst durch die ICSID-Schiedsgerichte und betrifft im einzelnen die folgenden Themen: (a) Definition des Begriffs "Investition" im Sinne des ICSID-Übereinkommens. (b) Ausdehnung der Reichweite der Meistbegünstigungsklausel auf Verfahrensvorschriften. (c) Zuständigkeit der ICSID-Schiedsgerichte für reine Verletzungen von Investitionsverträgen mittels weiter Streitbeilegungsvorschriften und Regenschirmklauseln. (d) Standard der Enteignungsentschädigung und Unterscheidung zwischen indirekter Enteignung und staatlicher Regulierung. (e) Völkervertraglicher und völkergewohnheitsrechtlicher Notstand. Die Untersuchung kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die ICSID-Rechtsprechung an Heterogenität leidet. Dementsprechend bildet der Mangel an Mechanismen zur Sicherung der Homogenität der ICSID-Rechtsprechung ein schwerwiegendes institutionelles Defizit. Es ist daher dringend, dass das ICSID-System unmittelbar reformiert wird, vorzugsweise durch die Schaffung einer ICSID-Berufungsinstanz. ; The settlement of investment disputes within the ICSID system is carried out by the ICSID arbitral tribunals which are non-permanent judicial bodies. Every separate case is adjudicated by a different tribunal. The ICSID system, however, does not provide for any institutions similar to the EC Advocate Generals, the EC preliminary rulings, the WTO Appellate Body or to the appeal-like process of the referral to the Grand Chamber of the ECHR capable of securing the homogenous development of the case-law. Moreover, the possibility of appeal of an arbitral award is explicitly excluded within the ICSID system. The present thesis examines the homogeneity of the ICSID jurisprudence in order to ascertain whether the case-law of the separate and not standing ICSID panels proves to be so inconsistent that the ICSID system is in need of reform. The study of the homogeneity of the ICSID jurisprudence concerns the interpretation of identical and similar provisions laid down in international investment treaties as well as of the ICSID Convention itself by the ICSID panels. In particular, it deals with the following topics: (a) Definition of the term "investment" pursuant to the ICSID Convention. (b) Extension of the scope of application of the most-favoured-nation clause to procedural provisions. (c) Jurisdiction of ICSID tribunals over mere violations of an investment contract through broad dispute settlement clauses and umbrella clauses. (d) Standard of compensation for expropriation and distinction between indirect expropriation and state regulation. (e) State of necessity under customary and investment treaty law. This study comes to the conclusion that the ICSID jurisprudence suffers from heterogeneity. Thus, the lack of mechanisms able to secure the consistency of the ICSID case-law constitutes a serious institutional deficit. It is, therefore, urgent to reform the ICSID system immediately, preferably by way of establishing an ICSID appellate authority.

This study questions whether Hong Kong (HK) students' engineering aspirations are facilitated within their secondary school STEM curriculum or elsewhere. HK students perform strongly on international science and mathematics assessments, although its economy is reliant on a dwindling number of engineers. We consider STEM education metaphors, recent government attempts to improve STEM education and lack of Asian STEM literature. A representative twenty-four students (sex, age, secondary school type) were interviewed to elicit school/home e/STM (engineering within/STM subjects) experiences and aspirations. Thematic content analyses found: e/STM aspirations most susceptible to (pathway-based) home and cultural inequalities; younger students excluded from engineering interests; and, inhibiting in-school activities/pedagogies. Within this high-performing Asian society, inhibitors to engineering engagement were similar to current Western findings.

Employee participation is a vital ingredient of what the International Labour Organization (ILO) calls 'representation security'. This article provides theoretical and empirical insights relating to social policy impact of worker participation, specifically the European Information and Consultation Directive (ICD) for employee voice rights. While existing research on the ICD offers important empirical insights, there is a need for further theoretical analysis to examine the potential effectiveness of the regulations in liberal market economies (LMEs). Drawing on data from 16 case studies, the article uses game theory and the prisoner's dilemma framework to explain why national implementing legislation is largely ineffective in diffusing mutual gains cooperation in two LMEs: UK and the Republic of Ireland. Three theoretical (metaphorical) propositions advance understanding of the policy impact of national information & consultation regulations in LMEs.

AbstractThe 1918 Soviet default is the longest and most complex sovereign debt dispute in history. The first settlement with a major Western power came with the United Kingdom in 1986. It followed a settlement almost twenty years earlier for claims arising from the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states. We show how the two negotiations became intertwined and prompted both states to take pragmatic positions on international law. Whereas the Soviet Union showed little interest in legally justifying its inconsistent positions on debt succession, the United Kingdom developed contested legal arguments on state recognition to justify using gold belonging to the Baltic States to settle Soviet claims. In addition, we document how UK government lawyers admitted internally that Britain's involvement in the Russian Civil War had been illegal, which in turn justified very limited compensation to British claimants.

AbstractHow do actors undertake institutional design in complex systems? Scholars recognize that many international regimes are becoming increasingly complex. Yet relatively little is known about how actors design or redesign institutions amid this complexity. As participant-observers in the UN negotiations on investment treaty reform, we have watched state officials and other participants grapple with this question for several years. To help explain what we have observed, we conceptualize these participants as complex designers—actors who seek to design and redesign institutions within complex adaptive systems. We then formulate three emergent design principles that seem to guide their approach as they aim to create: flexible structures, balanced content, and adaptive management processes. In a dynamic era marked by unpredictability, division, and complex transnational challenges, we believe these concepts may prove to be increasingly relevant in global governance.

In the joined cases brought by the European Commission (Commission), the United Kingdom, and the Council of the European Union (EU) against Yassin Abdullah Kadi, decided on July 18, 2013, the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ or Court) sustained the judgment of the General Court that had annulled the Commission regulation freezing Kadi's funds in accordance with the mandate of the United Nations Security Council's sanctions committee. The ECJ ruled that, although the majority of the reasons relied on by EU authorities for listing Kadi were sufficiently detailed and specific to allow him to exercise his rights of defense and judicial review effectively, no information or evidence had been produced to substantiate the allegations, when challenged by Kadi, that he had been involved in activities linked to international terrorism.

In February 2013, the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD Committee or the Committee) issued its opinion in TBB—Turkish Union in Berlin/Brandenburg v. Germany. The majority of the Committee concluded that Germany had violated its obligations to protect its Turkish and Arab populations from a former state official's allegedly racially discriminatory statements in violation of Articles 2(1)(d), 4(a), and 6 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD or the Convention). The Committee reached significant conclusions regarding the contours of incitement to racial hatred and ideas of racial superiority, the balance between freedom from discrimination and freedom of expression, and state discretion not to prosecute. Consideration of this matter also marks the first time a member of the CERD Committee has filed an individual—or dissenting—opinion.