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I look puzzled or annoyed as the anchorgot my title wrong, suggesting I run NPSIAI have been thinking a lot lately about profs and punditry.  To start, I am just going to accept that profs who appear on TV are "pundits" as the definition of a pundit is: "an expert in a particular subject or field who is frequently called on to give opinions about it to the public."  Yep, that's us, among other folks.  Plenty of profs who aren't pundits, plenty of pundits who are not profs, but those who profess in the media are, indeed, pundits.   This came up last week at the International Studies Association as there was a panel on "How Not To Bridge The Gap" which is about as deceptive as one can get in a panel title since it was really about how to bridge the gap--how to have the academics talk to the policy people and vice versa.  After a couple of decades of Bridging the Gap [BTG], a group dedicated to fostering the exchange, and a few years of a bit of that in a Canadian accent--the CDSN which has as BTG as a founding partner--folks are now asking about whether this is a good thing, whether it is dangerous, how to do responsible engagement, and such.While all of this can be and should be quite complicated, I have a basic take on whether or not to do media stuff (and since I do a fair amount, you can guess where this is headed):We get public money to do our research, so we should give back.  Indeed, many grant applications require a dissemination plan.A fundamental part of professing is to disseminate knowledge.And if not us, then who?This last thing is my focus today and was when I piped up from the audience last week.  That if we don't speak, the media will find someone else to fill that time slot, that page, that podcast, whatever.  So, one must ask themselves if one can bring more to something than whoever else they might get or whether one might not be as fit for that topic or issue than whoever else they might get.This is where I borrow a concept from the analytics revolution in sports.  There have been all kinds of ways to measure the value of baseball players compared to each other, basketball players (one measure is called RAPTOR!), and so on.  My personal favorite happens to be from baseball.  I like it so much both because it has a good conception and has a fun acronym is VORP: Value Over Replacement Player.  This enables one not only to assess how a generic player in their position in the same season or time frame, but to compare players at different positions or in different time frames.  While technology, strategy, and medical care and the rest have changed over time, we can use this measure to figure out the relative value of players from different generations.  Babe Ruth is still #1 followed by Walter Johnson, Cy Young, and then Barry Bonds and then Bonds's godfather Willie Mays (this settles the Mantle/Mays thing).  I am happy to see Tom Seaver above Greg Maddox, that Seaver was much better than the replacement level starting pitcher of his era compared to Greg Maddox to the replacement level starting pitcher of his era.  In basketball, this puts Lebron over Jordan, which folks might disagree with just a bit. The point is not to stir up a debate about sports, but the idea of measuring someone compared the person a team could get that is easily available--off the street, from the waiver wire, from the minor leagues, whatever.  When it comes to media stuff, the producers of the various radio, television, podcast, and other programs need to fill content, so they will grab someone, anyone, to fill in a spot.  So, the point I raised at the conference and part of the reason why I do media stuff is: would we rather have a knowledgeable expert or some schlub off the street?  Of course, they don't get just any schlub, they go to the experts who are already on their rolodex (to date myself even further).  We tend to see mostly the same folks again and again depending on the issue, so the question is, for every expert, are they more expert or less (dare I say it) hacky than the person who might be called instead?  The VORP in sports is easy to calculate even if what goes in the calculations can be and is debated--how much does excellence at anyone time count compared to lifetime achievement, etc.  In punditry, how do we calculate VORP?  It will be less about what is quantified and more about what can be compared and ranked.  So, what may be in the minds of the producers and should be in our minds as we come up with a Value Over Replacement Pundit:How well they know the topic at hand?  Some folks are super sharp at one thing, others know a bit about a lot.  This measure here is about how much they know about the specific topic?What is their range?  How broadly can they speak?  Because you know the anchor is going to go off script and ask questions that are not necessarily in the strikezone.How articulate are they?  Can they speak/write clearly and dynamically?  I will mention my Lebron/Babe Ruth in Canadian circles on this measure below.How measured or responsible are they?  Folks saying that war between US and China is inevitable, for instance, have a lower VORP because they may very well be creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.  My speculating about terrorism in 1996 Lubbock should have set my VORP at a negative number.  On the other hand, I was far more responsible last March about calls for a No Fly Zone than a bunch of retired military officers in the US and Canada.  Availability: in sports, health is a gift/attribute in its own right, which means that some players rank higher because they can play most days.  Kevin Durant's VORP has been hurt by his various injuries.  In the pundit game, the question is whether one is willing to do it a bit, some, or a lot.  This can obviously tradeoff with expertise/responsibility pieces.  There are probably other ingredients/variables, but let's stick with those for now, and folks can suggest additional ones.The first item--how well they know the topic--allows us to bring in the positions from sports.  That one can have a high VORP if one is playing a position they are good at and a low one if they play one that is not their strength.  Babe Ruth has an incredible VORP because he was both a terrific hitter and an amazing pitcher.  So, some folks will have high Value Above Replacement Pundit because they know a lot about a lot, and they have the other key ingredients. In thinking about this and my experiences both in the media and watching other folks, I thought I should use a few key issues to highlight who has a high VORP.  And, yes, this was partially inspired by watching two NPSIA colleagues and one PhD student absolutely rock the Canadian intelligence beat.  So, enough with the explanations and definitions, who has a high VORP in Canada?  Note, this is illustrative, not exhaustive.I think number one on Canadian foreign policy, broadly defined, is Roland Paris.  He brings his years of academic experience on peacekeeping and international relations to bear along with his various times in government at different levels.  He is simply terrific at articulating complex stuff--his quotes today about Biden's visit to Ottawa were both accurate and delightful.  He is also very responsible--he's not going to say something that is wildly speculative.  If I were a producer, I would always go to him first on damn near anything.  When I appeared on TV with him once, I just basically said: "I agree with Roland." It did not make for good tv.  Bessma Momani has wide-ranging expertise, is compelling and clear, so she's a great go-to for Canadian relations with a variety of places.On intelligence matters, Canada has quite a few folks who are super sharp on this: Stephanie Carvin, Leah West, Jess Davis, Artur Wilcyznkski, and Craig Forcese clearly have very high VORPs (I think Amar Amarasingam does too, but I haven't seen as much of his stuff).  Stephanie, Leah, Jess, and Craig have done extensive research, Artur has far more experience than the others in government in so many spots (he is a great podcast co-host for a couple of the podcasts on the CDSN Podcast Network).  Each are quite responsible, sticking within their lanes of expertise, not speculating wildly, and not having any ideological axes to grind (that's a hint for many of the folks who have low VORPs--who tend to dominate the editorial pages).On defence stuff, Thomas Juneau has among the highest VORPs because he has academic and policy expertise, a willingness to do the media stuff, is excellent in both official languages. Stéfanie von Hlatky would have the highest defence VORP except she does not do that much media.  I wish she did more as she is super responsible, knows the Canadian defence scene, knows the US and NATO well, again strong in both languages.  I had fun watching her at a couple of NATO summits where the Canadian media grabbed us to "scrum" with them.  Of the columnists, I think Shannon Proudfoot easily has the highest VORP.  Her columns always are well reported, provide valuable perspective, making one see things from a different angle. Where do I fit in?  I think I have a decent, positive VORP score, but not as strong as those mentioned above.  I am not as articulate or as responsible.  I have a wider range than most, except perhaps Thomas and Roland (reminds me of the polls that show that men are far more confident about landing planes or battling bears), but with that greater willingness to talk about stuff at the edges of my expertise, I say stuff like Ukraine is going to lose the war.  I was wrong (many were wrong about that).  I should have been a bit more circumspect about potential predictions even while being clear as I could why a No Fly Zone was super dangerous. I did have fun saying "your guess is as good as mine" when an anchor went against the instructions asking about the pipeline sabotage.One of the things I have been emphasizing in recent years is saying no to the media where my VORP trends negative or where I know folks who have much more value.  During the Vance/McDonald/Sajjan stuff of two years ago, I kept directing the media to people who studied gender and the military.  I was far more willing to talk when the story focused on civilian control of the military, something I study.  I have declined to speak much about balloons or about election interference as I really don't have that much to say.  I really don't know much about China, for instance.  I will speak beyond my areas of expertise on the Battle Rhythm podcast because it is a smaller audience, I can edit myself afterwards, and my co-host and guests can and will correct me.  For a five minute hit on radio or TV, the anchor person is not going to push back if I say something wrong.  They may want me to do so since it might make for better tv.  Who has negative VORPs, where a replacement pundit available off the street or waiver wire would be a significant improvement?  I could name a few obvious retired senior military officers, but that would be unnecessary.  I could also name some columnists for national papers in Canada including one who used to own a bunch of them before/after? he was convicted.So some caveats here--I don't watch as much tv and I certainly don't listen to too much radio, so I am mostly influenced by the times I have appeared with other folks.  And, yes, most of the people listed above are very good friends.  I don't think I have to agree with someone to give them a high score.... but it probably doesn't hurt. Does that make me biased or do I simply hang with people with high VORPs?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯There
is a tradeoff I forgot to mention in the first posting of this: if you
say no a lot, they won't come back.  Which can be cool if one does not
want to be bothered.  But saying yes a fair amount means that when I do
say no, I can refer them to sharp, younger people who they don't know
about, and this allows me to connect the media to diverse voices.  And
they often listen.  The media wants good people, but they also have lots
of time pressure, so they often go to the easiest get.  But if you give
them help, they will add to their rolodex. Feel free to nominate in the comments folks in the Canadian IR media space who are at either end of the VORP spectrum or in between. 

On Wednesday, Erik Hurst presented a lovely paper, "The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run," written with Elena Pastorino, Patrick Kehoe, and Thomas Winberry, at the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group seminar. Video (a great presentation) and slides here. This is a beautiful and detailed model, which won't try to summarize here. I write to pass on one central graph and insight. Suppose there is some "monopsony power," at the individual firm level. Don't argue about that yet. Erik and coauthors  put it in, so that there is a hope that minimum wages can do some good, and it is the central argument made by minimum wage proponents. In the paper it comes because people are uniquely suited to a particular job for personal reasons. Professors don't like to move, they've figured out the ropes at their current university, so the dean can get away with paying less than they could get elsewhere. Why this applies to MacDonalds relative to the Taco Bell next door is a good question, but again, the point is to analyze it not to argue about it. "Labor demand" here is the marginal product of labor. (\(f'(N)\) It's what labor demand would be in a competitive market. The monopsnists' demand is lower). Monopsony means that the "marginal cost of labor" rises with the number of employees. There is a core of people that really love the job that you can hire at low cost. As you expand, though, you have to hire people who aren't that attached to this particular job, so you have to pay more. And you have to pay everyone else more too, (by reasonable assumption -- no individually negotiated wages), so the average cost of labor rises. Thus, the monopsonies firm chooses to hire fewer people \(N_m\),  produce less, and pay them a wage \(W_n\) below their marginal product.  ("Average cost of labor" is really the labor supply curve, call it \(w=L(N)\). Then \(\max (f(N)-wN\) s.t. \(w=L(N)\) yields \(f'(N)=w+NL'(N)\). The "marginal cost of labor" in the graph is this latter quantity: the wage you pay the last worker, plus all workers times the extra wage you must pay them all. Disclaimer: the equations are me reverse-engineering the graph.) Now, add a minimum wage. As the minimum wage rises above \(W_m\), we initially see a rise in the number of workers, and their incomes. The firm moves along the arrow as shown. (\(\max f(N)-wN\) s.t. \( w \ge L(N)\), \( w \ge w^\ast\) gives \(w^\ast = L(N)\) .) Keep raising the minimum wage, though. Once we get past the point that labor supply ("average cost of labor") requires a wage greater than the marginal product of labor, the firm turns around and hires fewer people: (Really, the problem all along was \(\max_{w,N} f(N)-wN\) s.t. \( w \ge L(N)\), \( w \ge w^\ast\). Once the minimum wage rises enough, the solution \(w^\ast=L(N) \) has \(f'(N)<w^\ast\). The firm does better by hiring fewer people than are willing to work at that wage. With the second constraint slack, \(f'(N)=w^\ast\) is the optimum.) So, in this best case, minimum wages do first raise employment, and income. But if you keep going, they eventually turn around and lower employment and raise unemployment (people between the equilibrium and the "average cost of labor" curve want jobs but can't get them.)  We join the local "monopsony" view with the latter "neoclassical" view. The actual model is way more realistic, with multiple kinds of workers, firms that can substitute between workers, dynamics that include capital investment in worker-specific technologies, a search model for unemployment and more. Each seems to me just complicated enough to capture an important effect. Multiple kinds of workers is really important: a big part of the "labor demand" is not just a fixed marginal product of a given kind of worker, but the firm's ability to substitute other kinds of workers and machines for a given task. It's nicely calibrated to match the US economy. A bottom line: Start raising the minimum wage from $7.50.  At first, this raises employment of low-skilled workers, but the above mechanism. It does nothing to medium and high skill workers, since they are already being paid more than the minimum wage. (I'm not sure why we don't see substitution toward higher skills here.) As the minimum wage rises toward $10, however, we hit the neoclassical part of the low-skill curve, and it starts hurting low-skill employment. In their calibration, "monopsony" lowers wages by about 25%, so once the minimum wage has cured that, i.e. about $10 an hour, workers are being paid their marginal products, so requiring even more just quickly lowers their employment. Bit by bit the minimum wage starts to help each group as it hits the point between what they are actually paid and their marginal product. People whose marginal products are less than $7.50 an hour are missing from the picture. They were already driven out of the market by the current minimum wage.  (The conclusions about the optimum minimum wage are potentially flawed by this omission. It could be even less!) This is a lovely story. An obvious implication: Don't quickly generalize too far from local estimates or small interventions.  Big minimum wage changes can have the opposite effects as small ones! The big question of minimum wages is always which workers are helped vs hurt, not overall labor. Much of the other work on minimum wages (Jeff Clemens, for example) emphasizes that it helps a few, who can work the hours employers want, are already skilled, speak English, etc., at the cost of many others, who tend to be less well off to start. The dynamic part of the paper is great too. Minimum wages are like rent controls: the damage takes time to show up. In the model, dynamics show up as firms have structured their capital to the current employment mix. It takes time to put in, say, video screens to substitute away from order-takers. The shaded part is the duration of typical studies. Studies that examine the short run reactions to small minimum wage changes completely miss the long-run effect of large changes. Finally, once again, the minimum wage like so many other policies, is an answer in search of a question. If the issue is "how does policy address labor market monopsony," the minimum wage is a very ineffective answer to that question.  Once you spell out the nature of the actual problem, all sorts of other policies are more effective. If you fix the monopsony, wage subsidies are better. But starting with figuring out why there is monopsony in the first place and what policies are inadvertently supporting it is better still.  ****Update: "Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare" by David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff and Simon Mongey is a similar paper along these lines -- careful modeling of minimum wages with heterogeneity of workers and firms.  This paper adds different kinds of firms: From Simon:"when you start accounting for firms also being heterogeneous... a similar logic carries over. A small minimum wage lifts employment at the small firm with a slither of monopsony power before tanking them, while it's tanking them it starts raising employment at the slightly bigger firm, then tanks that. By the time you get up to the wages paid by any firm that might have considerable market power you've blown up employment at a whole load of firms. A perturbation argument essentially leads you to never increase the minimum wage."Put another way, a minimum wage increase from $7.50 to $9.00 might actually increase employment at McDonalds... because it puts all the taco stands out of business. Then at $12.00, McDonalds goes out of business but Applebees expands, and so forth. (Or, "corner store" and "supermarket" in Simon's beautiful slides with lots of great supply and demand graphs.) They find that the efficiency maximizing minimum wage is close to where we are now. "Efficiency" means "offsetting monopsony." As in Hurst et al, only a small sliver of people are actually hurt by monopsony and helped by the minimum wage. Everyone whose productivity is below $7.50 an hour is already out of the labor force, and everyone whose productivity is higher than the proposed minimum wage is largely unaffected:  Again, "raise the minimum wage to offset labor monopsony" is an answer in search of a question. (They go on to evaluate redistribution, which I didn't look at. But I will ask the same question. "raise the minimum wage to redistribute income" sounds to me like an answer in search of a question; if the question is "redistribute income with minimum economic disincentive" I bet there are better answers.) ****Update 2. Now, let's think a bit about this "monopsony" business. Both papers include monopsony really for good rhetorical reasons: Let's give the model some reason for minimum wages. Both cite long literatures. Hurst et al summarize that wages are about 25% less than marginal products. Really? At McDonalds? Without getting in to the weeds, think for a minute just how hard this is. What is the marginal product of workers at your job? The marginal product of an extra professor in your department? That's awfully hard to measure! Kudos to those who try. It's easier to measure average products: how much the company makes, divided by number of employees. But wages should be below average products. Someone has to pay for the other inputs and a competitive return to capital. Did we really tease out average vs. marginal products? Well, build a model, add lots of assumptions, and here we go. That's the best we can do, but recognize how hard it is. Pervasive monopsony means two things, both suspicious. First, it means that each company would have to pay more to hire more people, to do the exact same job as current people, and then it has to pay everyone more. The labor supply curve to the company is upward sloping. That's key in the graph above. Really? Do a restaurant really have to pay everyone more in order to get one more employee? Second, it means there are substantial "rents." Where does the extra 25% go? Not just to an ordinary return to capital, but to extraordinary profits. Together with the view that price markups over marginal costs are large, it's just hard to see large monopoly and oligopoly rents spewing out of businesses. I think this illustrates two problems in our general economic discourse. First, econ 101 tends to be a week of how a hypothetical free market works, and then a 9 week litany of market failures, each remediable by an omniscient "planner" -- monopoly, monopsony, externality, asymmetric information, and so on. Our students, like two year olds with hammers, go out and see those nails. But are they really there, and are the available instruments actually able to fix them? Second, there is a pervasive tendency for answers to search for questions. Clearly the minimum wage came first, a centuries old idea, long before monopsony. Monopsony is only the latest item in the shopping cart of reasons for a pre-exiting policy idea. As above, if the question is monopsony, however, the answer is not a minimum wage. This problem abounds. (If the question is how to raise GDP 5% in 100 years, there are 99 answers better than force everyone to buy electric cars today, for example.) Let's be honest. The idea behind minimum wages is to try to transfer income from businesses -- and thus from their customers, investors, and high-wage workers -- to low-wage employees. Mongey et al. explicitly consider "redistribution" as an objective, and this is the objective. The many unintended consequences -- more unemployment, lower employment, favoring the better off at the expense  of the most precarious of low-wage employees, etc. -- bear on that issue. Here to, though,  if the question is "how should we redistribute income to low-wage workers" or even "how should we improve the lot of low-skill workers," there are 100 better answers. The EITC looks better in Hurst et al, though it too has many problems including a very high marginal tax rate as it phases out. Economic discourse would be a lot more productive if instead of focusing on answers that have been around a long time -- let's find a new reason for minimum wages -- we focused on the question and the mechanisms. 

This study examined advertising, exhibiting multilingual structures to reach the Nigerian audience. Halliday's mood system and morphological processes served as the theoretical configurations for analyzing textual elements of advertisements. These contextual terminologies permitted quantitative and qualitative approaches to thrive in order to culminate the investigation. Thus, the analysis showed political motifs, religious spheres, royal domains, musical settings, and friendship environment, as the fascinating panaceas to motivate readers. English, Yorùbá, and Hausa languages were functional facilities to mesmerize consumers. However, the advertisements displayed textual interruptions: FEBUHARI, FELABRATION, OBIdiently, and ATIKUlating, being strong prerequisites in persuasive designs. Creativity indicates the logically-minded behavior of publicists in blending grammatical structures of different languages together, yielding a unified whole, generating novel semantic values for regurgitation. It seems indisputable that such textual constructs have the capability to influence lexicographers, increase word-stock(s) of languages, and projecting the advertising industry as possessing cerebral proficiencies in linguistics' advancement. ; tdalamu@aul.edu.ng ; Taofeek O. Dalamu earned a PhD from the University of Lagos, Nigeria, under a methodical supervision of Prof. Adeyemi Daramola, with specialization in Systemic Functional Linguistics, Discourse Analysis, and Digital Humanities in relation, mostly, to advertising communications. Currently, Dr. Dalamu is a member of International Systemic Functional Linguistics Association, and teaches English courses at Anchor University, Lagos, Nigeria. 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Advertising communication: Constructing meaning potential through disjunctive grammar. Anagramas Rumbos y Sentidos De La Communicación 17(33): 73-104. ; Dalamu, T. O. 2019a. Halliday's mood system: A scorecard of literacy in the English grammar in an L2 situation. Revista de Estudos da Linguagem 27(1): 241-274. ; Dalamu, T. O. 2019b. A Discourse Analysis of Language Choice in MTN® and Etisalat® Advertisements in Nigeria. Beau Bassin: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. ; Dalamu, T. O. 2019c. Textual artifact of advertising: A thrust of Halliday's mood system resources. Revista Brasileira de Linguística Aplicada 19(3): 407-454. ; Dalamu, T. O. 2020. Discoursing children characteristics of Zenith Bank®, Nigeria, Advertising: An expression of clause as representation. Journal of Language and Linguistic Studies 16(1): 333-365. ; Dash, N. 2008. Context and contextual word meaning. SKASE Journal of Theoretical Linguistics 5(2): 21-31. ; De Pelsmacker, P., Geuens, M. & Leuven, V. 2002. 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WOS:000468428300001 ; This paper presents the combinations of single-top-quark production cross-section measurements by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations, using data from LHC proton-proton collisions at = 7 and 8 TeV corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1.17 to 5.1 fb(-1) at = 7 TeV and 12.2 to 20.3 fb(-1) at = 8 TeV. These combinations are performed per centre-of-mass energy and for each production mode: t-channel, tW, and s-channel. The combined t-channel cross-sections are 67.5 +/- 5.7 pb and 87.7 +/- 5.8 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. The combined tW cross-sections are 16.3 +/- 4.1 pb and 23.1 +/- 3.6 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. For the s-channel cross-section, the combination yields 4.9 +/- 1.4 pb at = 8 TeV. The square of the magnitude of the CKM matrix element V-tb multiplied by a form factor f(LV) is determined for each production mode and centre-of-mass energy, using the ratio of the measured cross-section to its theoretical prediction. It is assumed that the top-quark-related CKM matrix elements obey the relation |V-td|, |V-ts| « |V-tb|. All the |f(LV)V(tb)|(2) determinations, extracted from individual ratios at = 7 and 8 TeV, are combined, resulting in |f(LV)V(tb)| = 1.02 +/- 0.04 (meas.) +/- 0.02 (theo.). All combined measurements are consistent with their corresponding Standard Model predictions. ; ANPCyT, ArgentinaANPCyT; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, AustraliaAustralian Research Council; BMWFW, Austria; FWF, AustriaAustrian Science Fund (FWF); ANAS, AzerbaijanAzerbaijan National Academy of Sciences (ANAS); SSTC, Belarus; CNPq, BrazilNational Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); FAPESP, BrazilFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP); NSERC, CanadaNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; NRC, Canada; CFI, CanadaCanada Foundation for Innovation; CERN; CONICYT, ChileComision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT); CAS, ChinaChinese Academy of Sciences; MOST, ChinaMinistry of Science and Technology, China; NSFC, ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); COLCIENCIAS, ColombiaDepartamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion Colciencias; MSMT CR, Czech RepublicMinistry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; MPO CR, Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; VSC CR, Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; DNRF, Denmark; DNSRC, DenmarkDanish Natural Science Research Council; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, GermanyFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); HGF, Germany; MPG, GermanyMax Planck Society; GSRT, GreeceGreek Ministry of Development-GSRT; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaHong Kong Research Grants Council; ISF, IsraelIsrael Science Foundation; Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN); MEXT, JapanMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); JSPS, JapanMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT)Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, NetherlandsNetherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Netherlands Government; RCN, Norway; MNiSW, PolandMinistry of Science and Higher Education, Poland; NCN, Poland; FCT, PortugalPortuguese Foundation for Science and Technology; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia, Russian FederationRussian Federation; NRC KI, Russian Federation; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS, SloveniaSlovenian Research Agency - Slovenia; MIZS, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC, Sweden; Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, Switzerland; SNSF, SwitzerlandSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF); Canton of Bern, Switzerland; MOST, TaiwanMinistry of Science and Technology, Taiwan; TAEK, TurkeyMinistry of Energy & Natural Resources - Turkey; STFC, United KingdomScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); DOE, United States of AmericaUnited States Department of Energy (DOE); NSF, United States of AmericaNational Science Foundation (NSF); BCKDF, Canada; CANARIE, Canada; CRC, Canada; Compute Canada, Canada; COST, European Union; ERC, European UnionEuropean Union (EU)European Research Council (ERC); ERDF, European UnionEuropean Union (EU); Horizon 2020, European Union; Marie Sk lodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d' Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, FranceFrench National Research Agency (ANR); DFG, GermanyGerman Research Foundation (DFG); AvH Foundation, GermanyAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF, Israel; GIF, IsraelGerman-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; Royal Society, United KingdomRoyal Society of London; Leverhulme Trust, United KingdomLeverhulme Trust; BMBWF (Austria); FWF (Austria)Austrian Science Fund (FWF); FNRS (Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; FWO (Belgium)FWO; CNPq (Brazil)National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); CAPES (Brazil)CAPES; FAPERJ (Brazil)Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ); FAPERGS (Brazil)Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS); FAPESP (Brazil)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP); MES (Bulgaria); CAS (China)Chinese Academy of Sciences; MoST (China)Ministry of Science and Technology, China; NSFC (China)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia)Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion Colciencias; MSES (Croatia); CSF (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); SENESCYT (Ecuador); MoER (Estonia); ERC IUT (Estonia)Estonian Research Council; ERDF (Estonia)European Union (EU); Academy of Finland (Finland)Academy of Finland; MEC (Finland); HIP (Finland); CEA (France)French Atomic Energy Commission; CNRS/IN2P3 (France)Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); BMBF (Germany)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); DFG (Germany)German Research Foundation (DFG); HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece)Greek Ministry of Development-GSRT; NKFIA (Hungary); DAE (India)Department of Atomic Energy (DAE); DST (India)Department of Science & Technology (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland)Science Foundation Ireland; INFN (Italy)Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN); MSIP (Republic of Korea); NRF (Republic of Korea); MES (Latvia); LAS (Lithuania); MOE (Malaysia); UM (Malaysia); BUAP (Mexico); CINVESTAV (Mexico); CONACYT (Mexico)Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT); LNS (Mexico); SEP (Mexico); UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MOS (Montenegro); MBIE (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE (Poland); NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal)Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology; JINR (Dubna); MON (Russia); RosAtom (Russia); RAS (Russia)Russian Academy of Sciences; RFBR (Russia)Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR); NRC KI (Russia); MESTD (Serbia); SEIDI (Spain); CPAN (Spain); PCTI (Spain); FEDER (Spain)European Union (EU); MOSTR (Sri Lanka); MST (Taipei); ThEPCenter (Thailand); IPST (Thailand); STAR (Thailand); NSTDA (Thailand); TAEK (Turkey)Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources - Turkey; NASU (Ukraine); SFFR (Ukraine)State Fund for Fundamental Research (SFFR); STFC (United KingdomScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); DOE (U.S.A.)United States Department of Energy (DOE); NSF (U.S.A.)National Science Foundation (NSF); Marie-Curie programmeEuropean Union (EU); Horizon 2020 Grant (European Union)European Union (EU) [675440]; Leventis Foundation; A.P. Sloan FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundation; Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; Belgian Federal Science Policy OfficeBelgian Federal Science Policy Office; Fonds pour la Formation a la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium)Institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT); F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; FWO (Belgium)FWO [30820817]; Beijing Municipal Science & Technology CommissionBeijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission [Z181100004218003]; Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech RepublicMinistry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech Republic; Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary)Hungarian Academy of Sciences; New National Excellence Program UNKP (Hungary); NKFIA (Hungary) [123842, 123959, 124845, 124850, 125105]; Council of Science and Industrial Research, IndiaCouncil of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR) - India; HOMING PLUS programme of the Foundation for Polish Science; European Union, Regional Development FundEuropean Union (EU); Mobility Plus programme of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education; National Science Center (Poland)National Science Centre, PolandNational Science Center, Poland [Harmonia 2014/14/M/ST2/00428, Opus 2014/13/B/ST2/02543, 2014/15/B/ST2/03998, 2015/19/B/ST2/02861, Sonata-bis 2012/07/E/ST2/01406]; National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund; Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu [MDM-2015-0509]; Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias; EU-ESFEuropean Union (EU); Greek NSRFGreek Ministry of Development-GSRT; Rachadapisek Sompot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University (Thailand); Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project (Thailand); Welch FoundationThe Welch Foundation [C-1845]; Weston Havens Foundation (U.S.A.); Canton of Geneva, Switzerland; Herakleitos programme; Thales programme; Aristeia programme; European Research Council (European Union)European Union (EU)European Research Council (ERC); Science and Technology Facilities CouncilScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC) [ST/N000242/1, ST/N000331/1] Funding Source: researchfish ; We thank CERN for the very successful operation of the LHC, as well as the support staff from our institutions without whom ATLAS and CMS could not be operated efficiently. We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azerbaijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF and DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, HGF, and MPG, Germany; GSRT, Greece; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MNiSW and NCN, Poland; FCT, Portugal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia and NRC KI, Russian Federation; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZS, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC and Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, individual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, CANARIE, CRC and Compute Canada, Canada; COST, ERC, ERDF, Horizon 2020, and Marie Sk lodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d' Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia programmes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF and GIF, Israel; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; The Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom. We acknowledge the enduring support for the construction and operation of the LHC and the CMS detector provided by the following funding agencies: BMBWF and FWF (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, FAPERGS, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES and CSF (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); SENESCYT (Ecuador); MoER, ERC IUT, and ERDF (Estonia); Academy of Finland, MEC, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France); BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece); NKFIA (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); MSIP and NRF (Republic of Korea); MES (Latvia); LAS (Lithuania); MOE and UM (Malaysia); BUAP, CINVESTAV, CONACYT, LNS, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MOS (Montenegro); MBIE (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE and NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal); JINR (Dubna); MON, RosAtom, RAS, RFBR, and NRC KI (Russia); MESTD (Serbia); SEIDI, CPAN, PCTI, and FEDER (Spain); MOSTR (Sri Lanka); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); MST (Taipei); ThEPCenter, IPST, STAR, and NSTDA (Thailand); TUBITAK and TAEK (Turkey); NASU and SFFR (Ukraine); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (U.S.A.).; Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie programme and the European Research Council and Horizon 2020 Grant, contract No. 675440 (European Union); the Leventis Foundation; the A.P. Sloan Foundation; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office; the Fonds pour la Formation a la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium); the Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium); the F.R.S.-FNRS and FWO (Belgium) under the "Excellence of Science -EOS" -be.h project n. 30820817; the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, No. Z181100004218003; the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech Republic; the Lendulet ("Momentum") Programme and the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, the New National Excellence Program UNKP, the NKFIA research grants 123842, 123959, 124845, 124850, and 125105 (Hungary); the Council of Science and Industrial Research, India; the HOMING PLUS programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, cofinanced from European Union, Regional Development Fund, the Mobility Plus programme of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, the National Science Center (Poland), contracts Harmonia 2014/14/M/ST2/00428, Opus 2014/13/B/ST2/02543, 2014/15/B/ST2/03998, and 2015/19/B/ST2/02861, Sonata-bis 2012/07/E/ST2/01406; the National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund; the Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu, grant MDM-2015-0509 and the Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias; the Thalis and Aristeia programmes cofinanced by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF; the Rachadapisek Sompot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University and the Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project (Thailand); the Welch Foundation, contract C-1845; and the Weston Havens Foundation (U.S.A.).; In addition, we gratefully acknowledge the computing centres and personnel of the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid for delivering so effectively the computing infrastructure essential to our analyses. In particular, the support from CERN, the ATLAS Tier-1 facilities at TRIUMF (Canada), NDGF (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), CC-IN2P3 (France), KIT/GridKA (Germany), INFN-CNAF (Italy), NL-T1 (Netherlands), PIC (Spain), ASGC (Taiwan), RAL (U.K.) and BNL (U.S.A.), the Tier-2 facilities worldwide and large non-WLCG resource providers is acknowledged gratefully. Major contributors of ATLAS computing resources are listed in ref. [127].

WOS: 000468428300001 ; This paper presents the combinations of single-top-quark production cross-section measurements by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations, using data from LHC proton-proton collisions at = 7 and 8 TeV corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1.17 to 5.1 fb(-1) at = 7 TeV and 12.2 to 20.3 fb(-1) at = 8 TeV. These combinations are performed per centre-of-mass energy and for each production mode: t-channel, tW, and s-channel. The combined t-channel cross-sections are 67.5 +/- 5.7 pb and 87.7 +/- 5.8 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. The combined tW cross-sections are 16.3 +/- 4.1 pb and 23.1 +/- 3.6 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. For the s-channel cross-section, the combination yields 4.9 +/- 1.4 pb at = 8 TeV. The square of the magnitude of the CKM matrix element V-tb multiplied by a form factor f(LV) is determined for each production mode and centre-of-mass energy, using the ratio of the measured cross-section to its theoretical prediction. It is assumed that the top-quark-related CKM matrix elements obey the relation |V-td|, |V-ts| « |V-tb|. All the |f(LV)V(tb)|(2) determinations, extracted from individual ratios at = 7 and 8 TeV, are combined, resulting in |f(LV)V(tb)| = 1.02 +/- 0.04 (meas.) +/- 0.02 (theo.). All combined measurements are consistent with their corresponding Standard Model predictions. ; ANPCyT, ArgentinaANPCyT; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, AustraliaAustralian Research Council; BMWFW, Austria; FWF, AustriaAustrian Science Fund (FWF); ANAS, AzerbaijanAzerbaijan National Academy of Sciences (ANAS); SSTC, Belarus; CNPq, BrazilNational Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); FAPESP, BrazilFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP); NSERC, CanadaNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; NRC, Canada; CFI, CanadaCanada Foundation for Innovation; CERN; CONICYT, ChileComision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT); CAS, ChinaChinese Academy of Sciences; MOST, ChinaMinistry of Science and Technology, China; NSFC, ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China; COLCIENCIAS, ColombiaDepartamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion Colciencias; MSMT CR, Czech RepublicMinistry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; MPO CR, Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; VSC CR, Czech RepublicCzech Republic Government; DNRF, Denmark; DNSRC, DenmarkDanish Natural Science Research Council; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, GermanyFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); HGF, Germany; MPG, GermanyMax Planck Society; GSRT, GreeceGreek Ministry of Development-GSRT; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaHong Kong Research Grants Council; ISF, IsraelIsrael Science Foundation; Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; MEXT, JapanMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); JSPS, JapanMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT)Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, NetherlandsNetherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Netherlands Government; RCN, Norway; MNiSW, PolandMinistry of Science and Higher Education, Poland; NCN, Poland; FCT, PortugalPortuguese Foundation for Science and Technology; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia, Russian FederationRussian Federation; NRC KI, Russian Federation; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS, SloveniaSlovenian Research Agency - Slovenia; MIZS, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC, Sweden; Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, Switzerland; SNSF, SwitzerlandSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF); Canton of Bern, Switzerland; MOST, TaiwanMinistry of Science and Technology, Taiwan; TAEK, TurkeyMinistry of Energy & Natural Resources - Turkey; STFC, United KingdomScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); DOE, United States of AmericaUnited States Department of Energy (DOE); NSF, United States of AmericaNational Science Foundation (NSF); BCKDF, Canada; CANARIE, Canada; CRC, Canada; Compute Canada, Canada; COST, European Union; ERC, European UnionEuropean Union (EU)European Research Council (ERC); ERDF, European UnionEuropean Union (EU); Horizon 2020, European Union; Marie Sk lodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d' Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, FranceFrench National Research Agency (ANR); DFG, GermanyGerman Research Foundation (DFG); AvH Foundation, GermanyAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF, Israel; GIF, IsraelGerman-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; Royal Society, United KingdomRoyal Society of London; Leverhulme Trust, United KingdomLeverhulme Trust; BMBWF (Austria); FWF (Austria)Austrian Science Fund (FWF); FNRS (Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; FWO (Belgium)FWO; CNPq (Brazil)National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); CAPES (Brazil)CAPES; FAPERJ (Brazil)Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ); FAPERGS (Brazil)Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS); FAPESP (Brazil)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP); MES (Bulgaria); CAS (China)Chinese Academy of Sciences; MoST (China)Ministry of Science and Technology, China; NSFC (China)National Natural Science Foundation of China; COLCIENCIAS (Colombia)Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion Colciencias; MSES (Croatia); CSF (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); SENESCYT (Ecuador); MoER (Estonia); ERC IUT (Estonia)Estonian Research Council; ERDF (Estonia)European Union (EU); Academy of Finland (Finland)Academy of Finland; MEC (Finland)Spanish Government; HIP (Finland); CEA (France)French Atomic Energy Commission; CNRS/IN2P3 (France)Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); BMBF (Germany)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); DFG (Germany)German Research Foundation (DFG); HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece)Greek Ministry of Development-GSRT; NKFIA (Hungary); DAE (India)Department of Atomic Energy (DAE); DST (India)Department of Science & Technology (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland)Science Foundation Ireland; INFN (Italy)Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; MSIP (Republic of Korea); NRF (Republic of Korea); MES (Latvia); LAS (Lithuania); MOE (Malaysia); UM (Malaysia); BUAP (Mexico); CINVESTAV (Mexico); CONACYT (Mexico)Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT); LNS (Mexico); SEP (Mexico); UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MOS (Montenegro); MBIE (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE (Poland); NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal)Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology; JINR (Dubna); MON (Russia); RosAtom (Russia); RAS (Russia)Russian Academy of Sciences; RFBR (Russia)Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR); NRC KI (Russia); MESTD (Serbia); SEIDI (Spain); CPAN (Spain); PCTI (Spain); FEDER (Spain)European Union (EU); MOSTR (Sri Lanka); MST (Taipei); ThEPCenter (Thailand); IPST (Thailand); STAR (Thailand); NSTDA (Thailand); TAEK (Turkey)Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources - Turkey; NASU (Ukraine); SFFR (Ukraine)State Fund for Fundamental Research (SFFR); STFC (United KingdomScience & Technology Facilities Council (STFC); DOE (U.S.A.)United States Department of Energy (DOE); NSF (U.S.A.)National Science Foundation (NSF); Marie-Curie programmeEuropean Union (EU); Horizon 2020 Grant (European Union)European Union (EU) [675440]; Leventis Foundation; A.P. Sloan FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundation; Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; Belgian Federal Science Policy OfficeBelgian Federal Science Policy Office; Fonds pour la Formation a la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium)Institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT); F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgium)Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; FWO (Belgium)FWO [30820817]; Beijing Municipal Science & Technology CommissionBeijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission [Z181100004218003]; Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech RepublicMinistry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech Republic; Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary)Hungarian Academy of Sciences; New National Excellence Program UNKP (Hungary); NKFIA (Hungary) [123842, 123959, 124845, 124850, 125105]; Council of Science and Industrial Research, IndiaCouncil of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR) - India; HOMING PLUS programme of the Foundation for Polish Science; European Union, Regional Development FundEuropean Union (EU); Mobility Plus programme of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education; National Science Center (Poland) [Harmonia 2014/14/M/ST2/00428, Opus 2014/13/B/ST2/02543, 2014/15/B/ST2/03998, 2015/19/B/ST2/02861, Sonata-bis 2012/07/E/ST2/01406]; National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund; Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu [MDM-2015-0509]; Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias; EU-ESFEuropean Union (EU); Greek NSRFGreek Ministry of Development-GSRT; Rachadapisek Sompot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University (Thailand); Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project (Thailand); Welch FoundationThe Welch Foundation [C-1845]; Weston Havens Foundation (U.S.A.); Canton of Geneva, Switzerland; Herakleitos programme; Thales programme; Aristeia programme; European Research Council (European Union)European Union (EU)European Research Council (ERC) ; We thank CERN for the very successful operation of the LHC, as well as the support staff from our institutions without whom ATLAS and CMS could not be operated efficiently. We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azerbaijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF and DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, HGF, and MPG, Germany; GSRT, Greece; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MNiSW and NCN, Poland; FCT, Portugal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia and NRC KI, Russian Federation; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZS, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC and Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, individual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, CANARIE, CRC and Compute Canada, Canada; COST, ERC, ERDF, Horizon 2020, and Marie Sk lodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d' Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia programmes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF and GIF, Israel; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; The Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom. We acknowledge the enduring support for the construction and operation of the LHC and the CMS detector provided by the following funding agencies: BMBWF and FWF (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, FAPERGS, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES and CSF (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); SENESCYT (Ecuador); MoER, ERC IUT, and ERDF (Estonia); Academy of Finland, MEC, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France); BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece); NKFIA (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); MSIP and NRF (Republic of Korea); MES (Latvia); LAS (Lithuania); MOE and UM (Malaysia); BUAP, CINVESTAV, CONACYT, LNS, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MOS (Montenegro); MBIE (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE and NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal); JINR (Dubna); MON, RosAtom, RAS, RFBR, and NRC KI (Russia); MESTD (Serbia); SEIDI, CPAN, PCTI, and FEDER (Spain); MOSTR (Sri Lanka); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); MST (Taipei); ThEPCenter, IPST, STAR, and NSTDA (Thailand); TUBITAK and TAEK (Turkey); NASU and SFFR (Ukraine); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (U.S.A.).; Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie programme and the European Research Council and Horizon 2020 Grant, contract No. 675440 (European Union); the Leventis Foundation; the A.P. Sloan Foundation; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office; the Fonds pour la Formation a la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium); the Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium); the F.R.S.-FNRS and FWO (Belgium) under the "Excellence of Science -EOS" -be.h project n. 30820817; the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, No. Z181100004218003; the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech Republic; the Lendulet ("Momentum") Programme and the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, the New National Excellence Program UNKP, the NKFIA research grants 123842, 123959, 124845, 124850, and 125105 (Hungary); the Council of Science and Industrial Research, India; the HOMING PLUS programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, cofinanced from European Union, Regional Development Fund, the Mobility Plus programme of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, the National Science Center (Poland), contracts Harmonia 2014/14/M/ST2/00428, Opus 2014/13/B/ST2/02543, 2014/15/B/ST2/03998, and 2015/19/B/ST2/02861, Sonata-bis 2012/07/E/ST2/01406; the National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund; the Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigacion Cientfica y Tecnica de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu, grant MDM-2015-0509 and the Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias; the Thalis and Aristeia programmes cofinanced by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF; the Rachadapisek Sompot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University and the Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project (Thailand); the Welch Foundation, contract C-1845; and the Weston Havens Foundation (U.S.A.).; In addition, we gratefully acknowledge the computing centres and personnel of the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid for delivering so effectively the computing infrastructure essential to our analyses. In particular, the support from CERN, the ATLAS Tier-1 facilities at TRIUMF (Canada), NDGF (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), CC-IN2P3 (France), KIT/GridKA (Germany), INFN-CNAF (Italy), NL-T1 (Netherlands), PIC (Spain), ASGC (Taiwan), RAL (U.K.) and BNL (U.S.A.), the Tier-2 facilities worldwide and large non-WLCG resource providers is acknowledged gratefully. Major contributors of ATLAS computing resources are listed in ref. [127].

In this research paper we discuss current information Cyber Security problems of Governments in Europe. We discuss related issues in Europe and particularly in Ukraine. Additionally we discuss Cyber Security in state administration and on the objects of information activities, as well as offering recommendations for creating a system of their information security using modern technological methods solutions by applying modern technological methods. Keywords: identification, information security, eGovernment, ensuring the organization of information security, Cyber Threat. References1. Buryachok V.L. The technology of the porous analog analysis and the evaluation of the occupancy of automated information systems / V.L. Buryachok, L.V.Buryachok V.V. Semko, / Science and Technology Journal of Modern Economic Informatics State University Telecommunications. Number 4, 2016, pages 15–20.2. The Law of Ukraine "On the Basic Principles for the Development of the Information Society in Ukraine for 2007-2015" // Vedomosti Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 2007, No. 12, Article 102.3. Roland Traunmuller¨ and Christine Leitner. eGovernment: State and perspectives. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 4–7, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.4. Robert Schware. Electronic governance and rural communities. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 492–493, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.5. Richard Heeks et al. Most eGovernment-for-development projects fail: how can risks be reduced? Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester Manchester, 2003.6. Marco Prandini and Marco Ramilli. Security considerations about the adoption of web 2.0 technologies in sensitive eGovernment processes. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '11, pages 285–288, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.7. John Malgeri. Cyber security: A national effort to improve. In 2009 Information Security Curriculum Development Conference, InfoSecCD '09, pages 107–113, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.8. Ravi Sandhu. The science, engineering and business of cyber security. In Proceedings of the 2013 ACM SIGSAC Conference on Computer & Communications Security, CCS '13, pages 411–412, New York, NY, USA, 2013. ACM.9. Editorial: Big data, internet of things, cybersecurity—a new trinity of embedded systems research. ACM Trans. Embed. Comput. Syst., 14(4): 61:1–61:2, October 2015.10. Benjamin Edwards, Steven Hofmeyr, Stephanie Forrest, and Michel van Eeten. Analyzing and modeling longitudinal security data: Promise and pitfalls. In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Computer Security Applications Conference, ACSAC 2015, pages 391–400, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.11. Mortaza S. Bargh, Ronald Meijer, Sunil Choenni, and Peter Conradie. Privacy protection in data sharing: Towards feedback based solutions. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '14, pages 28–36, New York, NY, USA, 2014. ACM.12. Malik Shahzad Awan, Peter Burnap, and Omer F. Rana. Estimating risk boundaries for persistent and stealthy cyber-attacks. In Proceedings of the 2015 Workshop on Automated Decision Making for Active Cyber Defense, SafeConfig '15, pages 15–20, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.13. Ross Brewer. Advanced persistent threats: minimising the damage. Network Security, 2014(4):5–9, 2014.14. Eric Byres, Bernie Chauvin, John Karsch, Dan Hoffman, and Nathan Kube. The special needs of SCADA/PCN firewalls: Architectures and test results. In Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation, 2005. ETFA 2005. 10th IEEE Conference on, volume 2, pages 8–pp. IEEE, 2005.15. Ernesto Damiani, Claudio Agostino Ardagna, and Nabil El Ioini. Open source systems security certification. Springer Science & Business Media, 2008.16. David Miller, Shon Harris, Allen Harper, Stephen VanDyke, and Chris Blask. Security information and event management (SIEM) implementation. McGraw Hill Professional, 2010.17. Kyle Wilhoit. Who's really attacking your ics equipment? Trend Micro, 2013.18. Xinyou Zhang, Chengzhong Li, and Wenbin Zheng. Intrusion prevention system design. In null, pages 386–390. IEEE, 2004.19. Przemyslaw Kazienko and Piotr Dorosz. Intrusion detection systems (IDS) Part I – (network intrusions; attack symptoms; IDS tasks; and IDS architecture), April 2003.20. Debbie Sielemann. Realm of threat intelligence – all about the packets, or is it?, October 2016.21. J. G. R. Sathiaseelan, S. Albert Rabara, and J. Ronal Martin. Multi-level secure framework (MLSF) for composite web services. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Interaction Sciences: Information Technology, Culture and Human, ICIS '09, pages 580–585, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.22. Khmelevskoy R.N. "Investigation of the assessment of threats to the information security of information activity objects" / / Modern information protection 2016. – No. 4. – pages 65–71.23. Mathematical model of leakage of confidential information, taking into account human factors / V.Z. Tabakov // Modern information security. – 2011, – № 1. – pages, 18–20. ; Статья посвящена проблемам информационной безопасности Правительства Украины, проблемам его кибербезопасности связанной с внедрением электронного правительства, рассматриваются современные организационные и технические направления обеспечения их информационной безопасности. Анализируются вопросы кибербезопасности связанные со становлением нового информационного общества Украины. Также рассматриваются современные методы и средства защиты для вышеупомянутых проблем в организациях информационной деятельности. Ключевые слова: идентификация, информационная безопасность, электронное правительство, обеспечение информационной безопасности организации, киберугрозы. Список использованной литературы1. Buryachok V.L. The technology of the porous analog analysis and the evaluation of the occupancy of automated information systems / V.L. Buryachok, L.V.Buryachok V.V. Semko, / Science and Technology Journal of Modern Economic Informatics State University Telecommunications. Number 4, 2016, pages 15–20.2. The Law of Ukraine "On the Basic Principles for the Development of the Information Society in Ukraine for 2007-2015" // Vedomosti Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 2007, No. 12, Article 102.3. Roland Traunmuller¨ and Christine Leitner. eGovernment: State and perspectives. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 4–7, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.4. Robert Schware. Electronic governance and rural communities. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 492–493, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.5. Richard Heeks et al. Most eGovernment-for-development projects fail: how can risks be reduced? Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester Manchester, 2003.6. Marco Prandini and Marco Ramilli. Security considerations about the adoption of web 2.0 technologies in sensitive eGovernment processes. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '11, pages 285–288, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.7. John Malgeri. Cyber security: A national effort to improve. In 2009 Information Security Curriculum Development Conference, InfoSecCD '09, pages 107–113, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.8. Ravi Sandhu. The science, engineering and business of cyber security. In Proceedings of the 2013 ACM SIGSAC Conference on Computer & Communications Security, CCS '13, pages 411–412, New York, NY, USA, 2013. ACM.9. Editorial: Big data, internet of things, cybersecurity—a new trinity of embedded systems research. ACM Trans. Embed. Comput. Syst., 14(4): 61:1–61:2, October 2015.10. Benjamin Edwards, Steven Hofmeyr, Stephanie Forrest, and Michel van Eeten. Analyzing and modeling longitudinal security data: Promise and pitfalls. In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Computer Security Applications Conference, ACSAC 2015, pages 391–400, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.11. Mortaza S. Bargh, Ronald Meijer, Sunil Choenni, and Peter Conradie. Privacy protection in data sharing: Towards feedback based solutions. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '14, pages 28–36, New York, NY, USA, 2014. ACM.12. Malik Shahzad Awan, Peter Burnap, and Omer F. Rana. Estimating risk boundaries for persistent and stealthy cyber-attacks. In Proceedings of the 2015 Workshop on Automated Decision Making for Active Cyber Defense, SafeConfig '15, pages 15–20, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.13. Ross Brewer. Advanced persistent threats: minimising the damage. Network Security, 2014(4):5–9, 2014.14. Eric Byres, Bernie Chauvin, John Karsch, Dan Hoffman, and Nathan Kube. The special needs of SCADA/PCN firewalls: Architectures and test results. In Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation, 2005. ETFA 2005. 10th IEEE Conference on, volume 2, pages 8–pp. IEEE, 2005.15. Ernesto Damiani, Claudio Agostino Ardagna, and Nabil El Ioini. Open source systems security certification. Springer Science & Business Media, 2008.16. David Miller, Shon Harris, Allen Harper, Stephen VanDyke, and Chris Blask. Security information and event management (SIEM) implementation. McGraw Hill Professional, 2010.17. Kyle Wilhoit. Who's really attacking your ics equipment? Trend Micro, 2013.18. Xinyou Zhang, Chengzhong Li, and Wenbin Zheng. Intrusion prevention system design. In null, pages 386–390. IEEE, 2004.19. Przemyslaw Kazienko and Piotr Dorosz. Intrusion detection systems (IDS) Part I – (network intrusions; attack symptoms; IDS tasks; and IDS architecture), April 2003.20. Debbie Sielemann. Realm of threat intelligence – all about the packets, or is it?, October 2016.21. J. G. R. Sathiaseelan, S. Albert Rabara, and J. Ronal Martin. Multi-level secure framework (MLSF) for composite web services. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Interaction Sciences: Information Technology, Culture and Human, ICIS '09, pages 580–585, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.22. Khmelevskoy R.N. "Investigation of the assessment of threats to the information security of information activity objects" / / Modern information protection 2016. – No. 4. – pages 65–71.23. Mathematical model of leakage of confidential information, taking into account human factors / V.Z. Tabakov // Modern information security. – 2011, – № 1. – pages, 18–20. ; Стаття присвячена проблемам інформаційної безпеки Уряду України, проблемам його кібербезпеки пов'язаних з впровадженням електронного уряду, розглядаються сучасні організаційні та технічні напрями забезпечення їх інформаційної безпеки. Аналізуються питання кібербезпеки пов'язані зі становленням нового інформаційного суспільства України. У свою чергу, розглядаються сучасні методи і засоби захисту для вищезазначених проблем в організаціях інформаційної діяльності. Ключові слова: ідентифікація, інформаційна безпека, електронний уряд, забезпечення інформаційної безпеки організації, кіберзагрози. Список використаної літератури1. Buryachok V.L. The technology of the porous analog analysis and the evaluation of the occupancy of automated information systems / V.L. Buryachok, L.V.Buryachok V.V. Semko, / Science and Technology Journal of Modern Economic Informatics State University Telecommunications. Number 4, 2016, pages 15–20.2. The Law of Ukraine "On the Basic Principles for the Development of the Information Society in Ukraine for 2007-2015" // Vedomosti Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 2007, No. 12, Article 102.3. Roland Traunmuller¨ and Christine Leitner. eGovernment: State and perspectives. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 4–7, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.4. Robert Schware. Electronic governance and rural communities. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '08, pages 492–493, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.5. Richard Heeks et al. Most eGovernment-for-development projects fail: how can risks be reduced? Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester Manchester, 2003.6. Marco Prandini and Marco Ramilli. Security considerations about the adoption of web 2.0 technologies in sensitive eGovernment processes. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '11, pages 285–288, New York, NY, USA, 2011. ACM.7. John Malgeri. Cyber security: A national effort to improve. In 2009 Information Security Curriculum Development Conference, InfoSecCD '09, pages 107–113, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.8. Ravi Sandhu. The science, engineering and business of cyber security. In Proceedings of the 2013 ACM SIGSAC Conference on Computer & Communications Security, CCS '13, pages 411–412, New York, NY, USA, 2013. ACM.9. Editorial: Big data, internet of things, cybersecurity—a new trinity of embedded systems research. ACM Trans. Embed. Comput. Syst., 14(4): 61:1–61:2, October 2015.10. Benjamin Edwards, Steven Hofmeyr, Stephanie Forrest, and Michel van Eeten. Analyzing and modeling longitudinal security data: Promise and pitfalls. In Proceedings of the 31st Annual Computer Security Applications Conference, ACSAC 2015, pages 391–400, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.11. Mortaza S. Bargh, Ronald Meijer, Sunil Choenni, and Peter Conradie. Privacy protection in data sharing: Towards feedback based solutions. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance, ICEGOV '14, pages 28–36, New York, NY, USA, 2014. ACM.12. Malik Shahzad Awan, Peter Burnap, and Omer F. Rana. Estimating risk boundaries for persistent and stealthy cyber-attacks. In Proceedings of the 2015 Workshop on Automated Decision Making for Active Cyber Defense, SafeConfig '15, pages 15–20, New York, NY, USA, 2015. ACM.13. Ross Brewer. Advanced persistent threats: minimising the damage. Network Security, 2014(4):5–9, 2014.14. Eric Byres, Bernie Chauvin, John Karsch, Dan Hoffman, and Nathan Kube. The special needs of SCADA/PCN firewalls: Architectures and test results. In Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation, 2005. ETFA 2005. 10th IEEE Conference on, volume 2, pages 8–pp. IEEE, 2005.15. Ernesto Damiani, Claudio Agostino Ardagna, and Nabil El Ioini. Open source systems security certification. Springer Science & Business Media, 2008.16. David Miller, Shon Harris, Allen Harper, Stephen VanDyke, and Chris Blask. Security information and event management (SIEM) implementation. McGraw Hill Professional, 2010.17. Kyle Wilhoit. Who's really attacking your ics equipment? Trend Micro, 2013.18. Xinyou Zhang, Chengzhong Li, and Wenbin Zheng. Intrusion prevention system design. In null, pages 386–390. IEEE, 2004.19. Przemyslaw Kazienko and Piotr Dorosz. Intrusion detection systems (IDS) Part I – (network intrusions; attack symptoms; IDS tasks; and IDS architecture), April 2003.20. Debbie Sielemann. Realm of threat intelligence – all about the packets, or is it?, October 2016.21. J. G. R. Sathiaseelan, S. Albert Rabara, and J. Ronal Martin. Multi-level secure framework (MLSF) for composite web services. In Proceedings of the 2Nd International Conference on Interaction Sciences: Information Technology, Culture and Human, ICIS '09, pages 580–585, New York, NY, USA, 2009. ACM.22. Khmelevskoy R.N. "Investigation of the assessment of threats to the information security of information activity objects" / / Modern information protection 2016. – No. 4. – pages 65–71.23. Mathematical model of leakage of confidential information, taking into account human factors / V.Z. Tabakov // Modern information security. – 2011, – № 1. – pages, 18–20.

In this era of startling developments in the medical field there remains a serious worry about the hazardous potential of various by products which if not properly addressed can lead to consequences of immense public concern. Hospitals and other health care facilities generate waste products which are evidently hazardous to all those exposed to its potentially harmful effects. Need for effective legislation ensuring its safe disposal is supposed to be an integral part of any country's health related policy. This issue is of special importance in developing countries like Pakistan which in spite of framing various regulations for safeguarding public health, seem to overlook its actual implementation. The result unfortunately is the price wehave to pay not only in terms of rampant spread of crippling infections but a significant spending of health budget on combating epidemics which could easily have been avoided through effective waste disposal measures in the first place. Waste classified under the heading 'bio-hazardous' includes any infectious or potentially infectious material which can be injurious or harmful to humans and other living organisms. Amongst the many potential sources are the hospitals or other health delivery centres which are ironically supposed to be the centres of infection control and treatment. Whilst working in these setups, health care workers such as doctors, nurses, paramedical staff and sanitation workers are actually the ones most exposed and vulnerable to these challenges. Biomedical waste may broadly be classified into Infectious and toxic waste. Infectious waste includes sharps, blood, body fluids and tissues etcwhile substances such as radioactive material and by-products of certain drugs qualify as toxic waste. Furthermore health institutions also have to cater for general municipal waste such as carton boxes, paper and plastics. The World Health Organisation has its own general classification of hospital waste divided into almost eight categories of which almost 15% (10% infectious and 5% toxic) is estimated to be of a hazardous nature while the remaining 85% is general non hazardous content.1A recent study from Faisalabad, Pakistan has estimated hospital waste generation around 1 to 1.5 kg / bed /day for public sector hospitals in the region,2while figures quoted from neighbouring India are approximately 0.5 to 2 KG / hospital bed /day.3 Elsewhere in the world variable daily hospital waste production has been observed ranging from as low as 0.14 to 0.49 kg /day in Korea4 and 0.26 to 0.89 kg/day in Greece5to as high as 2.1 to 3.83 kg/day in Turkey6 and 0.84 to 5.8 kg/day in Tanzania.7Ill effects of improper management of hospital waste can manifest as nosocomial infections or occupational hazards such as needle stick injuries. Pathogens or spores can be borne either through the oro-faecal or respiratory routes in addition to direct inoculation through contact with infected needles or sharps. Environmental pollution can result from improper burning of toxic material leading to emission of dioxins, particulate matter or furans into the air. The habitat can also be affected by illegal dumping and landfills or washing up of medical waste released into the sea or river. Potential organisms implicated in diseases secondary to mismanagement of hospital waste disposal include salmonella, cholera, shigella, helminths, strep pneumonia, measles, tuberculosis, herpesvirus, anthrax, meningitis, HIV, hepatitis and candida etc. These infections can cause a considerable strain on the overall health and finances of the community or individuals affected. The basic principal of Public health management i.e 'prevention is better than cure' cannot be more stressed in this scenario as compared to any other health challenge. Health facilities must have a clear policy on hazardous waste management. To ensure a safe environment hospitals need to adopt and implement international and local systems of waste disposal. Hospital waste management plan entails policy and procedures addressing waste generation, accumulation, handling, transportation, storage, treatment and disposal. Waste needs to be collected in marked containers usually colour coded and leak proof. Segregation at source is of vital importance. The standard practice in many countries is the Basic Three Bin System ie to segregate the waste into RED bags/ boxes for sharps, YELLOW bags for biological waste and BLUE or BLACK ones for general/ municipal waste. All hospital staff needs to be trained in the concept of putting the right waste in relevant containers/ bags. They need to know that more than anything else this practice is vital for their own safety. The message can be reinforced through appropriate labelling on the bins and having posters with simple delineations to avoid mixing of different waste types. Sharps essentially should be kept in rigid, leak and puncture-resistant containers which are tightly lidded and labelled. Regular training sessions for nurses and cleaning staff can be organised as they are the personnel who are more likely to deal with waste disposition at the level of their respective departments. Next of course is transportation of waste products to the storage or disposal. Sanitary staff and janitors must be aware of the basic concepts of waste handling and should wear protective clothing, masks and gloves etc, besides ensuring regular practice of disinfection and sterilization techniques.8Special trolleys or vehicles exclusively designed and reserved for biomedical waste and operated by trained individuals should be used for transportation to the dumping or treatment site. Biomedical waste treatment whether on site or off site is a specialised entity involving use of chemicals and equipment intended for curtailing the hazardous potential of the material at hand. Thermal treatment via incinerators, not only results in combustion of organic substances but the final product in the form of non-toxicash is only 10 to 15% of the original solid mass of waste material fed to the machine. Dedicated autoclaves and microwaves can also be used for the purpose of disinfection. Chemicals such as bleach, sodium hydroxides, chlorine dioxide and sodiumhypochlorite are also effective disinfectants having specialised indications. Countries around the world have their own regulations for waste management. United Kingdom practices strict observance of Environmental protection act 1990, Waste managementlicensing regulations 1994 and Hazardous waste regulations 2005 making it one of thesafest countries in terms of hazardous waste disposal. Similar regulations specific for each state have been adopted in United States following passage of the Medical Waste tracking act 1988. In Pakistan, every hospital must comply with the Waste Management Rules 2005 (Environment Protection Act 1997), though actual compliance is far from satisfactory. It is high time that the government and responsible community organisations shape up to seriously tackle the issue of bio hazardous waste management through enforcement of effective policies and standard operating procedures for safeguarding the health and lives of the public in general and health workers in particular. Outbreaks, defined as excess cases of a particular disease or illness which outweighs the response capabilities, have the capacity to overwhelm health care facilities and need timely response and attention to details in order to avoid potentially disastrous sequelae . In this day and age when improvement in public health practices have significantly curtailed outbreak of various diseases, certain viral illnesses continue to make headlines. One of the notable vector borne infectious disease affecting significant portions of south east Asia in the early part of twenty first century is 'Dengue fever'. Dreaded as it is by those suffering from the illness, a lot of the hysteria created is secondary to a lack of education and understanding of the nature of the disease and at times a result of disinformation campaign for vested interests by certain political and media sections.'Dengue' in fact is a Spanish word, assumed to have originated from the Swahili phrase -ka dinga peppo -which describes the disease as being caused by evil spirit. 1 Over the course of time it has been called 'breakbone fever', 'bilious vomiting fever', 'break heart fever', 'dandy fever', 'la dengue' and 'Phillipine, Thai and Singapore hemorrhagic fever' Whilst the first reported case referring to dengue fever as a water poison spread by flying insects, exists in the Chinese medical encyclopedia from Jin Dynasty (265-420 AD), the disease is believed to have disseminated from Africa with the spread of the primary vector, aedes egypti, in the 15th to 19th century as a result of globalisation of slave trade 45In 80% of the patients affected by this condition the presentation is rather insidious and at best characterized by mild fever. The classical 'Dengue fever' present in about 5% of the cases is characterized by high temperature, body aches, vomiting and at times a skin rash. The disease may regresses in two to seven days. However inrare instances (<5%) it may develop into more serious conditions such as Dengue hemorrhagic fever whereby the platelet count is significantly reduced leading to bleeding tendencies and may even culminate in a more life threatening presentation i.e Dengue shock syndrome.6To understand the actual dynamics of Dengue epidemic it is important to understand the mode of its spread in affected areas. Aedes mosquito (significantly Aedes Egypti) acts a vector for this disease. Early morning and evening times7 are favoured by these mosquitos to feed on their prey. There is some evidence that the disease may be transmitted via blood products and organ donation. 8 Moreover vertical transmission (mother to child) has also been reported 9Diagnostic investigations include blood antigen detection through NS-I or nucleic acid detection via PCR. IO Cell cultures and specific serology may also be used for confirming the underlying disease. Whilst sporadic and endemic cases are part of routine medical practice and may not raise any alarm bells, outbreaks certainly need mobilization of appropriate resources for effective control. Needless to say 'prevention is better than cure' and should be the primary target of the health authorities in devising strategies for disease control.The WHO recommended 'Integrated Vector control programme', lays stress on social mobilisation and strengthening of public health bodies, coherent response of health and related departments and effective capacity building of relevant personnel and organisations as well as the community at risk. For Aedes Egypti the primary control revolves around eliminating its habitats such as open sources of water. In a local perspective in our city Peshawar, venue of the recent dengue epidemic, it may be seen in the form of incidental reservoirs such as receptacles and tyres dumped in open areas such as roof tops with rain water accumulating in them and provtdjng excellent breeding habitats, Larvicidal and insecticides may be added to more permanent sources such as watertanks and farm lands. There is not much of a role for spraying with organophosphorous agents which is at times resorted to for public consumption. Public education is the key to any effective strategy which must highlight the need for wearing clothing that fully covers the skin, avoiding unnecessary early morning and evening exposure to vector agents, application of insect repellents and use of mosquito nets. It is also important not to panic if affliction with the disease is suspected as in a vast majority of instances it is a self limiting illness without any long term harmful effects and needs simple conservative management like antipyretics and analgesics.An important consideration for responsible authorities in a dengue epidemic is to ensure that maximum management facilities for simple cases are provided at the community level through primary and secondary health care facilities and that the tertiary care hospitals are not inundated with all sort of patients demanding consultation. These later facilities should be reserved for those patients who end up with any complications or more severe manifestation of the disease.Research is underway to develop an ideal vaccine for Dengue fever. In 2016, a vaccine by the name 'Dengvaxia' was marketed in Phillipines and Indonesia. However with development of new serotypes of the virus, its efficacy has been somewhat compromised.As for treatment , there are no specific antiviral drugs. Management is symptomatic revolving mainly around oral and intravenous hydration. Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) is used for fever as compared to NSAIDS such as Ibuprophen infusion as well as blood and platelet transfusion.Data to date shows that slightly more than twenty three thousand people have been diagnosed with dengue over the past three months ie August to October there is a lower risk of bleeding with the former. Those with more severe form of the disease may need Dextran 2017, in Peshawar, Pakistan with around fourteen thousand needing admission and about sixty nine recorded deaths. The mortality is well within the acceptable international standards of less than 1% for the disease. In the backdrop of all the debate surrounding the current epidemic, one can infer that such outbreaks are best addressed with effective planningwell ahead of the time before the disease threatens to spiral out of control. Simple measures such as covering water storage facilities, using larvicidals where practical, use of insect repellents, mosquito nets and avoiding unnecessary exposure can offerthe best protection. Public health messages via print and electronic media can help educate people in affected areas and allay any anxiety building up from a fear of developing life threatening complications. Health department must mobilise all its resources to ensure local management of diagnosed patients with simple dengue fever and facilitate hospital admission only for those suffering from more severe form of the disease. Moreover the media hype into such situations needs to be addressed through constant updates and discouraging any negative politicking on the issue. To sum up Dengue fever is not really an affliction to be dreaded provided it is viewed and managed in the right perspective.

In this era of startling developments in the medical field there remains a serious worry about the hazardous potential of various by products which if not properly addressed can lead to consequences of immense public concern. Hospitals and other health care facilities generate waste products which are evidently hazardous to all those exposed to its potentially harmful effects. Need for effective legislation ensuring its safe disposal is supposed to be an integral part of any country's health related policy. This issue is of special importance in developing countries like Pakistan which in spite of framing various regulations for safeguarding public health, seem to overlook its actual implementation. The result unfortunately is the price wehave to pay not only in terms of rampant spread of crippling infections but a significant spending of health budget on combating epidemics which could easily have been avoided through effective waste disposal measures in the first place. Waste classified under the heading 'bio-hazardous' includes any infectious or potentially infectious material which can be injurious or harmful to humans and other living organisms. Amongst the many potential sources are the hospitals or other health delivery centres which are ironically supposed to be the centres of infection control and treatment. Whilst working in these setups, health care workers such as doctors, nurses, paramedical staff and sanitation workers are actually the ones most exposed and vulnerable to these challenges. Biomedical waste may broadly be classified into Infectious and toxic waste. Infectious waste includes sharps, blood, body fluids and tissues etcwhile substances such as radioactive material and by-products of certain drugs qualify as toxic waste. Furthermore health institutions also have to cater for general municipal waste such as carton boxes, paper and plastics. The World Health Organisation has its own general classification of hospital waste divided into almost eight categories of which almost 15% (10% infectious and 5% toxic) is estimated to be of a hazardous nature while the remaining 85% is general non hazardous content.1A recent study from Faisalabad, Pakistan has estimated hospital waste generation around 1 to 1.5 kg / bed /day for public sector hospitals in the region,2while figures quoted from neighbouring India are approximately 0.5 to 2 KG / hospital bed /day.3 Elsewhere in the world variable daily hospital waste production has been observed ranging from as low as 0.14 to 0.49 kg /day in Korea4 and 0.26 to 0.89 kg/day in Greece5to as high as 2.1 to 3.83 kg/day in Turkey6 and 0.84 to 5.8 kg/day in Tanzania.7Ill effects of improper management of hospital waste can manifest as nosocomial infections or occupational hazards such as needle stick injuries. Pathogens or spores can be borne either through the oro-faecal or respiratory routes in addition to direct inoculation through contact with infected needles or sharps. Environmental pollution can result from improper burning of toxic material leading to emission of dioxins, particulate matter or furans into the air. The habitat can also be affected by illegal dumping and landfills or washing up of medical waste released into the sea or river. Potential organisms implicated in diseases secondary to mismanagement of hospital waste disposal include salmonella, cholera, shigella, helminths, strep pneumonia, measles, tuberculosis, herpesvirus, anthrax, meningitis, HIV, hepatitis and candida etc. These infections can cause a considerable strain on the overall health and finances of the community or individuals affected. The basic principal of Public health management i.e 'prevention is better than cure' cannot be more stressed in this scenario as compared to any other health challenge. Health facilities must have a clear policy on hazardous waste management. To ensure a safe environment hospitals need to adopt and implement international and local systems of waste disposal. Hospital waste management plan entails policy and procedures addressing waste generation, accumulation, handling, transportation, storage, treatment and disposal. Waste needs to be collected in marked containers usually colour coded and leak proof. Segregation at source is of vital importance. The standard practice in many countries is the Basic Three Bin System ie to segregate the waste into RED bags/ boxes for sharps, YELLOW bags for biological waste and BLUE or BLACK ones for general/ municipal waste. All hospital staff needs to be trained in the concept of putting the right waste in relevant containers/ bags. They need to know that more than anything else this practice is vital for their own safety. The message can be reinforced through appropriate labelling on the bins and having posters with simple delineations to avoid mixing of different waste types. Sharps essentially should be kept in rigid, leak and puncture-resistant containers which are tightly lidded and labelled. Regular training sessions for nurses and cleaning staff can be organised as they are the personnel who are more likely to deal with waste disposition at the level of their respective departments. Next of course is transportation of waste products to the storage or disposal. Sanitary staff and janitors must be aware of the basic concepts of waste handling and should wear protective clothing, masks and gloves etc, besides ensuring regular practice of disinfection and sterilization techniques.8Special trolleys or vehicles exclusively designed and reserved for biomedical waste and operated by trained individuals should be used for transportation to the dumping or treatment site. Biomedical waste treatment whether on site or off site is a specialised entity involving use of chemicals and equipment intended for curtailing the hazardous potential of the material at hand. Thermal treatment via incinerators, not only results in combustion of organic substances but the final product in the form of non-toxicash is only 10 to 15% of the original solid mass of waste material fed to the machine. Dedicated autoclaves and microwaves can also be used for the purpose of disinfection. Chemicals such as bleach, sodium hydroxides, chlorine dioxide and sodiumhypochlorite are also effective disinfectants having specialised indications. Countries around the world have their own regulations for waste management. United Kingdom practices strict observance of Environmental protection act 1990, Waste managementlicensing regulations 1994 and Hazardous waste regulations 2005 making it one of thesafest countries in terms of hazardous waste disposal. Similar regulations specific for each state have been adopted in United States following passage of the Medical Waste tracking act 1988. In Pakistan, every hospital must comply with the Waste Management Rules 2005 (Environment Protection Act 1997), though actual compliance is far from satisfactory. It is high time that the government and responsible community organisations shape up to seriously tackle the issue of bio hazardous waste management through enforcement of effective policies and standard operating procedures for safeguarding the health and lives of the public in general and health workers in particular. Outbreaks, defined as excess cases of a particular disease or illness which outweighs the response capabilities, have the capacity to overwhelm health care facilities and need timely response and attention to details in order to avoid potentially disastrous sequelae . In this day and age when improvement in public health practices have significantly curtailed outbreak of various diseases, certain viral illnesses continue to make headlines. One of the notable vector borne infectious disease affecting significant portions of south east Asia in the early part of twenty first century is 'Dengue fever'. Dreaded as it is by those suffering from the illness, a lot of the hysteria created is secondary to a lack of education and understanding of the nature of the disease and at times a result of disinformation campaign for vested interests by certain political and media sections.'Dengue' in fact is a Spanish word, assumed to have originated from the Swahili phrase -ka dinga peppo -which describes the disease as being caused by evil spirit. 1 Over the course of time it has been called 'breakbone fever', 'bilious vomiting fever', 'break heart fever', 'dandy fever', 'la dengue' and 'Phillipine, Thai and Singapore hemorrhagic fever' Whilst the first reported case referring to dengue fever as a water poison spread by flying insects, exists in the Chinese medical encyclopedia from Jin Dynasty (265-420 AD), the disease is believed to have disseminated from Africa with the spread of the primary vector, aedes egypti, in the 15th to 19th century as a result of globalisation of slave trade 45In 80% of the patients affected by this condition the presentation is rather insidious and at best characterized by mild fever. The classical 'Dengue fever' present in about 5% of the cases is characterized by high temperature, body aches, vomiting and at times a skin rash. The disease may regresses in two to seven days. However inrare instances (<5%) it may develop into more serious conditions such as Dengue hemorrhagic fever whereby the platelet count is significantly reduced leading to bleeding tendencies and may even culminate in a more life threatening presentation i.e Dengue shock syndrome.6To understand the actual dynamics of Dengue epidemic it is important to understand the mode of its spread in affected areas. Aedes mosquito (significantly Aedes Egypti) acts a vector for this disease. Early morning and evening times7 are favoured by these mosquitos to feed on their prey. There is some evidence that the disease may be transmitted via blood products and organ donation. 8 Moreover vertical transmission (mother to child) has also been reported 9Diagnostic investigations include blood antigen detection through NS-I or nucleic acid detection via PCR. IO Cell cultures and specific serology may also be used for confirming the underlying disease. Whilst sporadic and endemic cases are part of routine medical practice and may not raise any alarm bells, outbreaks certainly need mobilization of appropriate resources for effective control. Needless to say 'prevention is better than cure' and should be the primary target of the health authorities in devising strategies for disease control.The WHO recommended 'Integrated Vector control programme', lays stress on social mobilisation and strengthening of public health bodies, coherent response of health and related departments and effective capacity building of relevant personnel and organisations as well as the community at risk. For Aedes Egypti the primary control revolves around eliminating its habitats such as open sources of water. In a local perspective in our city Peshawar, venue of the recent dengue epidemic, it may be seen in the form of incidental reservoirs such as receptacles and tyres dumped in open areas such as roof tops with rain water accumulating in them and provtdjng excellent breeding habitats, Larvicidal and insecticides may be added to more permanent sources such as watertanks and farm lands. There is not much of a role for spraying with organophosphorous agents which is at times resorted to for public consumption. Public education is the key to any effective strategy which must highlight the need for wearing clothing that fully covers the skin, avoiding unnecessary early morning and evening exposure to vector agents, application of insect repellents and use of mosquito nets. It is also important not to panic if affliction with the disease is suspected as in a vast majority of instances it is a self limiting illness without any long term harmful effects and needs simple conservative management like antipyretics and analgesics.An important consideration for responsible authorities in a dengue epidemic is to ensure that maximum management facilities for simple cases are provided at the community level through primary and secondary health care facilities and that the tertiary care hospitals are not inundated with all sort of patients demanding consultation. These later facilities should be reserved for those patients who end up with any complications or more severe manifestation of the disease.Research is underway to develop an ideal vaccine for Dengue fever. In 2016, a vaccine by the name 'Dengvaxia' was marketed in Phillipines and Indonesia. However with development of new serotypes of the virus, its efficacy has been somewhat compromised.As for treatment , there are no specific antiviral drugs. Management is symptomatic revolving mainly around oral and intravenous hydration. Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) is used for fever as compared to NSAIDS such as Ibuprophen infusion as well as blood and platelet transfusion.Data to date shows that slightly more than twenty three thousand people have been diagnosed with dengue over the past three months ie August to October there is a lower risk of bleeding with the former. Those with more severe form of the disease may need Dextran 2017, in Peshawar, Pakistan with around fourteen thousand needing admission and about sixty nine recorded deaths. The mortality is well within the acceptable international standards of less than 1% for the disease. In the backdrop of all the debate surrounding the current epidemic, one can infer that such outbreaks are best addressed with effective planningwell ahead of the time before the disease threatens to spiral out of control. Simple measures such as covering water storage facilities, using larvicidals where practical, use of insect repellents, mosquito nets and avoiding unnecessary exposure can offerthe best protection. Public health messages via print and electronic media can help educate people in affected areas and allay any anxiety building up from a fear of developing life threatening complications. Health department must mobilise all its resources to ensure local management of diagnosed patients with simple dengue fever and facilitate hospital admission only for those suffering from more severe form of the disease. Moreover the media hype into such situations needs to be addressed through constant updates and discouraging any negative politicking on the issue. To sum up Dengue fever is not really an affliction to be dreaded provided it is viewed and managed in the right perspective.

This thesis is entitled "Essays on Public Debt, Growth and Development in Africa" and consists of a set of four essays, three of which are empirical. The first essay provides a literature survey on public debt and economic growth, specially focused on Africa. Since the beginning of the 1990s, public debt has been a real barrier to the economic growth of African economies and has since become part of the agenda and concern of policy makers, economists and researchers. A considerable number of theoretical and empirical studies have been produced over decades, addressing the impact of public debt on the economic growth of these countries. The results are consensual and point generally to an inverse relationship between the two variables i.e. public debt negatively affects economic growth from a given level. Krugman (1988) and Sachs (1989) agree that high levels of public debt mitigate the economic growth of developing countries through investment. This position is further corroborated by Mbale (2013) who referring to African countries argues that public debt crowds out credit to the private sector and constitutes a barrier to capital accumulation and private sector growth. Buchanan (1958) and Modigliani (1961) also share the view that in addition to the crowding out effect, the increase in public debt positively affects the long-term interest rate. Generally, the increase in public debt negatively affects economic growth. Fosu (1996) Irons and Bivens (2010) are decisive in concluding that high debt levels jeopardize economic growth, a position shared by Ezeabasili et al (2011), Escobar and Mallick (2013) and Zouhaier and Fatma (2014). Regarding the impact of fiscal policy on the economic growth of African countries, Devarajan et al. (1996) consider, after empirical analysis, that an increase in public spending has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Nurudeen and Usman (2010) argue that an increase in public spending is not immediately converted into economic growth, whereas Nworji et al. (2012) show that current and capital expenditures do not have a significant negative impact on Nigeria's economic growth. This view is supported by Engen and Skinner (1997) who concluded that public expenditure and the tax burden negatively and sharply affect economic growth. Babadola and Aminu (2011) provide complementary evidence and recommend that increased public spending on health and education should promote growth. The survey also highlights the inverse relationship between economic growth and government debt, compounded by the problem of debt overhang, preventing these countries from leveraging their economies. Additionally, the literature on the relationship between public deficits and economic growth is also not consensual. In fact, although the economic theory postulates that fiscal deficit contributes inevitably to debt accumulation, which through debt overhang affects negatively economic growth, there are other strings of economic thoughts that advocate that African countries would not reach economic growth without increasing debt. The second essay is empirical and analyzes the implications of public debt on economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The overall analysis was focused on the relationship between the limits of public debt as a percentage of the GDP, economic growth, and inflation. African economies achieve their highest performance in terms of average rates of economic growth (6.39%), while the limits of public debt as a percentage of the GDP are in the second intervals (30 - 60%) with an average inflation rate of 8.17%. From this limit, any increase in public debt is converted into a reduction of the average growth rates of economies and into an increase in average inflation rates. The findings show, unequivocally, that there is an inverse relationship between these two macroeconomic variables, depending on the levels of indebtedness. Briefly, the analysis concludes that the highest average growth rates are achieved when the public debt is in the second interval. When this ratio is situated in the third interval the average rates of economic growth suffer a drop of 1.32 percentage points and 1.64 percentage points when this ratio exceeds 90%. These results are much lower than those found by Reinhart and Rogoff in the essay "Growth in Time of Debt", for which an amount of debt equivalent to 60% of GDP causes a drop in the annual growth rate of around 2 percentage points. The third essay empirically assesses the traditional determinants of economic growth in African economies over the period 1950 to 2012, using growth regression techniques in which the explanatory variables are: public debt per capita, investment ratio, government ratio, capital stock per capita, and the Human Capital Index. The method used takes into account observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The regression results show strong evidence of a positive impact of the growth rate of capital stock to economic growth of African countries. The growth rate of the government to GDP ratio is also important in all but one of the regressions in which appears, and its growth is harmful for economic growth. Human capital has a positive relationship with economic growth in regressions that don't include public debt. However, the cross country impact of these two variables on the growth rate of the economies (positive to some and negative to others) is not uniform, so that appropriate policies for one country may be seriously misguided in another. Concerning public debt, we found that it is not significant and therefore it has no impact on the economic growth of African countries. The growth rate of real GDP per capita also depends (negatively) on its past value, i.e., the lower the real GDP per capita the higher will be its growth rate. We have also tested two proxies for institutions, which did not deliver significant results. The software used for the regressions is STATA, version 13. The fourth essay is devoted to an exploratory analysis of the main economic, social and institutional determinants of development in Africa, using a main component analysis for categorical data and cluster analysis and taking into account the years 1996 and 2014 as the oldest and most recent, respectively. This methodology allowed the agglomeration of the African countries into four differentiated clusters, being the countries constituting the clusters of 1996 distinct from those of the year 2014. The results point out to a positive association between the social, economic and institutional determinants of development which is reflected in the fact that countries with better institutional performances also show better indicators of economic and social achievement. The results also draw the attention of policy makers and development strategists to the need for an integrated approach to the development process, in order to achieve greater and more efficient integration of the different development determinants. The software used is IBM-SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences), version 23.0. ; Esta tese intitula-se "Essays on Public Debt, Economic Growth and Development in Africa" e é constituída por um conjunto de quatro ensaios, sendo três de natureza empírica. O primeiro ensaio ocupa-se da revisão da literatura sobre a dívida pública e o crescimento económico no contexto das economias africanas. A dívida pública constitui desde os princípios dos anos noventa do século passado uma verdadeira barreira para o crescimento económico das economias africanas e desde então passou a fazer parte da agenda e da preocupação dos decisores políticos, dos economistas e de uma massa crítica de investigadores cada vez mais interessada. Um manancial de estudos teóricos e empíricos foi produzido ao longo dessas décadas abordando o impacto da dívida pública no crescimento económico desses países. Os resultados são consensuais e apontam, genericamente, para uma relação inversa entre as duas variáveis ou seja a dívida pública afeta negativamente o crescimento económico a partir de um determinado nível. Krugman (1988) e Sachs (1989) concordam que níveis elevados da dívida pública hipotecam o crescimento económico dos países em vias de desenvolvimento por via do investimento. Esta posição é ainda corroborada por Mbale (2013) que referindo aos países africanos defende que a dívida pública crowds out o crédito destinado ao sector privado e impede a acumulação do capital e o crescimento do sector privado. Buchanan (1958) e Modigliani (1961) também partilham a opinião de que para além do efeito crowding out, o aumento da dívida pública influencia diretamente o aumento da taxa de juros a longo prazo. Em suma, o aumento da dívida pública afeta negativamente o crescimento económico. Fosu (1996) Irons e Bivens (2010) são decisivos em concluir que níveis elevados de dívida comprometem o crescimento económico, posição partilhada também por Ezeabasili et al (2011), Escobar and Mallick (2013) e Zouhaier e Fatma (2014). Relativamente ao impacto da política fiscal no crescimento económico dos países africanos, Devarajan et al (1996) consideram, após análises empíricas, que um aumento das despesas públicas tem um impacto positivo e significante no crescimento económico. Nurudeen e Usman (2010) argumentam que um incremento das despesas públicas não é imediatamente convertido em crescimento económico, enquanto Nworji et al. (2012) mostram que as despesas correntes e de capital não têm significativo impacto negativo no crescimento económico da Nigéria. Opinião díspar é defendida por Engen and Skinner (1997) que concluíram que as despesas públicas e a carga fiscal afetam negativamente e de forma acutilante o crescimento económico. Babadola e Aminu (2011) trazem evidências complementares e recomendam que o aumento das despesas públicas na saúde e educação promovem o crescimento. O segundo ensaio faz uma análise empírica sobre os limites do endividamento público, o crescimento económico e a inflação nas economias africanas, partindo de uma base de dados que cobre o período entre 1950 e 2012, envolvendo um conjunto de 52 economias, dividido em três áreas geográficas, designadamente: (1) Africa do Norte, (2) Africa Sub-Sahariana e (3) Comunidade para o Desenvolvimento da Africa Austral (SADC). O estudo conclui que, para o conjunto das economias africanas, as melhores performances em termos de taxas médias de crescimento económico (6,39%) são alcançadas quando os limites da dívida pública em percentagem do PIB se encontram entre os 30-60% do PIB e a taxa média de inflação for igual a 8.17%. Qualquer incremento da dívida pública a partir deste limite, provoca uma redução das taxas de crescimento médio das economias e um aumento das taxas médias de inflação. O ensaio traz-nos ainda uma evidência inequívoca de que existe uma relação inversa entre o crescimento económico e a inflação, em função dos níveis de endividamento. A principal conclusão do ensaio é a de que maiores taxas de crescimento médio das economias são alcançadas quando a dívida pública se encontra entre os 30 e os 60% do PIB. Se este rácio aumentar e se enquadrar entre os 60 e os 90% do PIB, as taxas médias de crescimento económico caem 1,32 pontos percentuais e 1,64 pontos percentuais quando excede os 90% do PIB. Trata-se, efetivamente, de valores inferiores aos obtidos por Reinhart e Rogoff no ensaio "Growth in Time of Debt" em que a dívida pública equivalente a 60% do PIB provoca uma queda do crescimento económico em cerca de 2 pontos percentuais e uma redução até 50% para valores da dívida pública superiores a 90% do PIB. Nota-se ainda que, no que diz respeito à taxa de inflação os resultados obtidos são idênticos aos de Reinhart e Rogoff ".nas economias emergentes, níveis elevados da dívida coincidem com elevadas taxas de inflação" (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2010). Um artigo resultante deste ensaio foi publicado no South African Journal of Economics, uma revista científica internacional pertencente ao Journal Citations Report e ao ranking do CEFAGE. O terceiro ensaio, intitulado "Explaining Growth in African Countries – What Matters?", analisa a relação entre dívida pública, stock de capital, consumo público em percentagem do PIB, Formação Bruta do Capital Fixo (BCF) em percentagem do PIB e o Índice do Capital Humano enquanto determinantes do crescimento e o próprio crescimento económico em 52 economias africanas entre 1950 e 2012. Tratando-se de um conjunto preciso de países e, por conseguinte, de uma regressão limitada, utilizou-se um modelo de painel de efeito fixo. Os coeficientes heterogéneos foram estimados utilizando o Modelo de Correção de Erros, de forma a envolver as propriedades das séries temporais e a própria dinâmica dos dados em painel. O software utilizado para as regressões é o STATA versão 13. O ensaio traz sólidas evidências, em todas as regressões efetuadas, de que a taxa de crescimento do stock de capital afeta positivamente o crescimento económico dos países africanos. Por outro lado, o capital humano manifesta uma relação positiva com o crescimento económico nas regressões que não incluem a dívida pública. No que se refere à dívida pública, o ensaio mostra que o seu impacto no crescimento económico dos países africanos não é significante. Testamos ainda duas proxies para as instituições mas os resultados não foram significativos. O quarto ensaio dedica-se à análise exploratória dos principais determinantes económicos, sociais e institucionais de desenvolvimento em Africa, utilizando uma análise de componentes principais para dados categóricos e análise de clusters e tendo em conta os anos de 1996 e 2014 como ano mais antigo e mais recente, respetivamente. Esta metodologia permitiu a aglomeração dos países africanos em quatro clusters diferenciados, sendo os países constituintes dos clusters de 1996 distintos dos do ano 2014. Os dados foram tratados com recurso ao software estatístico IBM-SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences), versão 23.0. Os resultados do ensaio apontam para uma associação positiva entre os determinantes sociais, económicos e institucionais do desenvolvimento. Esta associação traduz-se no facto de que os países com melhores performances institucionais manifestam também melhores indicadores de realização económica e social. Os resultados chamam também a atenção dos decisores políticos e dos estrategas de desenvolvimento para a necessidade de uma abordagem integrada do processo de desenvolvimento, visando uma maior e mais eficiente integração dos diferentes determinantes do desenvolvimento. A tese está organizada em capítulos que constituíram a base para artigos científicos submetidos a revistas internacionais, dai que embora relacionados entre si nos temas abordados e tendo como fio condutor um contributo para o desenvolvimento da economias dos países de Africa, cada capitulo é autocontido, tendo também o autor optado por incluir listas bibliográficas em cada um dos capítulos.

[spa] La tesis titulada 'Essays on the economics of crime: Determinants of crime in an urban context' tiene el objetivo de analizar los principales determinantes de la delincuencia en el contexto urbano. En concreto, analiza en profundidad los efectos de los partidos de fútbol jugados por el Fútbol Club Barcelona en la delincuencia con un objetivo tanto de análisis espacial como temporal. Adicionalmente, se analiza otra dimensión de la delincuencia: la percepción del delito. Para tales objetivos, se divide la tesis en 3 principales capítulos que reflejan 3 artículos que pueden ser leídos de forma separada o conjunta. En el primer capítulo, se analiza el efecto que los partidos de fútbol tiene sobre la distribución espacial de la delincuencia en la ciudad de Barcelona. Para tal objetivo, se utiliza una base de datos que por una parte, contiene todos los partidos de fútbol jugados por el F.C.B (tanto los jugados en casa como los jugados en otros campos de fútbol). Adicionalmente, y como gran novedad, se utiliza una base de datos única en España que contiene todos los delitos registrados por los Mossos de Esquadra i la Guardia Urbana desde 2007 a 2011 con información específica de donde han ocurrido, cuando han ocurrido y de que tipología delictiva se trata. Esta base de datos, permite realizar un análisis primero para el conjunto de toda la ciudad de Barcelona, y luego para aquellas secciones censales cercanas al estadio del Campo del F.C.B. La metodología utilizada consiste en un análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales mediante funciones de densidad de Kernel y la comparación de estos valores cuando existen partidos de fútbol jugados en casa y fuera de casa. De forma adicional, se añade un análisis de regresión que consiste en una primera estimación con datos de serie temporal a nivel de día para analizar los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los hurtos y los delitos violentos en toda la ciudad de Barcelona. A continuación, también se realiza una estimación espacial que consiste en la estimación del efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los delitos violentos y sobre los hurtos a nivel de sección censal y día. En el segundo capítulo de la tesis, se realiza un análisis de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de hasta 8 tipologías delictivas en la ciudad de Barcelona. El análisis se realiza mediante los datos descritos anteriormente. La metodología utilizada consiste tanto en un análisis descriptivo de todas las tipologías delictivas al nivel de hora, día, semana y mes, como en un análisis de regresión a nivel hora de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de los delitos en el tiempo. Los resultados reflejan que ciertas tipologías delictivas parecen aumentar después del partido de fútbol mientras que otras, como el consumo de substancias estupefacientes y los delitos contra la seguridad vial, parecen disminuir. Finalmente, el último capítulo analiza, mediante datos de la encuesta de victimización de Barcelona, que determina la percepción del delito de los individuos. Analizo desde los determinantes individuales como sexo, edad, nacionalidad o renta, hasta los determinantes de barrio. Es decir, variables relacionadas con el entorno de orden y del aspecto del barrio. Finalmente, en este mismo capítulo se analiza como el simple contacto con la policía puede incrementar o disminuir el nivel de percepción del delito. La metodología utilizada es un análisis multinivel logístico que tiene en cuenta tanto el orden de la variable dependiente como las variables independientes a dos niveles. ; [eng] In this thesis, I draw on these theoretical models from the criminological literature and on the empirical tools from the field of economics to analyze crime from the perspective of economics. I use the city of Barcelona, known worldwide for its ability to attract tourists, as my area of study. To the best of my knowledge, no similar crime research has previously been undertaken in this city and, therefore, the results of this thesis should provide interesting outcomes for policy makers. In Chapter 2, entitled "Should football teams be taxed? Determining crime externalities from football matches", I begin by demonstrating the economic importance of Football Club Barcelona. I then analyze the effect of Football Club Barcelona matches on crime from a spatial perspective. That is, I first evaluate the effect of the number of spectators on crime (thefts and assaults) by comparing crime rates on match days, both home and away, and days that are very similar in all other characteristics apart from the fact that no match has been played. I analyze two types of crime given that their determinants are likely to be very different: first, I focus on thefts, where the concentration of people in space and time may introduce incentives, or reduce costs, to potential offenders; and, second, I focus on assaults (fights and brawls in the main), whose drivers would appear to be more closely related to hooliganism, i.e., unlawful behavior related to football matches, such as fights, drunken disorder or damage to the belongings/property of others. In the next step, I analyze the impact of a football match on the spatial distribution of crime, by carrying out an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of the census tracts around the stadium on football match days and on days free of football. Employing econometric models that account for the positive skewed distribution and the over dispersion of the data (e.g. negative binomial regressions), I analyze how the scheduling of a football match can modify the distribution of crime in the city of Barcelona. In the case of thefts, the results indicate an increase in the number of crimes for the whole city of Barcelona on home match days, especially, in those census tracts that are within a 1-km radius of the stadium. This suggests that despite the increase in the number of police officers deployed around the stadium, pick pockets are attracted to crowds where the rewards are likely to be higher and the probability of being detained lower. These results are confirmed by the placebo test that shows a lower number of crimes are recorded in the census tracts around the stadium when Football Club Barcelona plays away. In the case of assaults, a similar spatial pattern to that described for thefts is found, although the overall impact for the whole city is not significant. This result suggests that there is a marked displacement effect towards the census tracts around the football stadium from other parts of the city. This phenomenon would seem to reflect the hooliganism that is present in and around most football stadiums in Spain. As such, the results obtained in this chapter provide public administrations with the opportunity to raise their revenue levels by taxing the crime externalities generated by football teams. In Chapter 3, entitled "How time shapes crime: the displacement effects of football matches in the city of Barcelona", I purposefully omit the spatial dimension of crime in order to focus on the temporal. I begin by undertaking an analysis of the temporal profile of crime for the city of Barcelona. That is, I carry out a very specific analysis of different types of crime and their unique temporal patterns. I specifically observe temporal crime patterns on a daily, weekly and monthly basis to determine whether they actually follow a clear pattern over time. I then conduct an hourly analysis to examine the impact of a major event, in this case a football match, on different types of crime. The results show that the football matches played by Football Club Barcelona reduce the levels of certain types of crime during the period of the game due to the incapacitation effect, i.e., potential criminals are incapacitated by the fact of their watching the game. Moreover, I find a reduction in those crimes typically reported only by the police, including driving crimes and drug consumption, due to what I identify as a substitution effect, i.e., police officers substitute their duty of reporting crimes for that of safeguarding citizen security. The consequence is an apparent fall in these types of crime, although the reality may be quite different. Finally, the results also show that in the hours leading up to a game and in the hours following the final whistle there appears to be significant increases in certain types of crime such as pick pocketing and violent crimes. Chapters 2 and 3 give more evidence on the determinants of crime and specifically on crime behavior modifications (as regards both time and place displacements) attributable to major events such as football matches. The results obtained provide police agencies with a better understanding of the way in which criminals shift their decisions regarding the commission of crimes in relation to major events: on the one hand, when criminals decide to commit their crimes on days when a football match is being played; and, on the other, where criminals choose to commit these crimes on match days. Placing these results into the context of public economics, football matches generate negative externalities in the form of higher levels of crime, which serves as a justification for policy makers to find new ways of financing the public sector and compensating the costs of these events. Moreover, and given that tackling crime is one of the main goals of police agencies, Chapters 2 and 3 also shed light on criminal behavior. Specifically, the results reported in these chapters help understand the way in which criminals modify their target preferences (both in terms of time and space) and, therefore, how the police might best deploy police officers in time and space. However, since the early eighties there has been an increasing interest among police officers to ensure that that people not only feel safer, but that they have an enhanced perception of their own safety (Cordner, 2010). Thus, the reduction of the fear of crime has been a major objective of the police given its impact on individuals' well-being. For instance, a robbery not only has an impact on the victim itself, it also affects the individuals that witness the act (and those who subsequently know about it) since they are likely to feel unsafe and to modify their behaviour accordingly. Networking and social interactions can spread this insecurity among individuals consequently affecting individuals' well-being. If the authorities are incapable of ensuring that people perceive their personal integrity as being guaranteed and that they live in a safe environment, public efforts and resources devoted to crime prevention and control may well not be assessed as fulfilling their primary objectives. In this sense, assessing the determinants of fear of crime and of crime risk perception are crucial for the public sector as they tackle the potential negative effects on individuals' well-being. Community policing is the policy that has been used since the early eighties in an attempt at assessing crime risk perception determinants as well as the potential factors that may reduce crime. It consists of a more human approach to society as the police seek to get closer to the real problems and fears of the citizens. The level of crime risk perception is not only determined by crime or individual characteristics such as gender or age, but also by the characteristics of the neighborhoods. The broken window thesis (Wilson and Kelling, 1982) links three important concepts in neighborhoods: disorder, fear and crime. Specifically, this thesis states that the link between the three concepts may start with a minor disorder such as a broken window. If left unchecked, it will generate the perception that no one cares about it. Hence, this minor disorder may generate increasing levels of fear. Levels of distrust among the neighbours consequently rise and they start to behave differently - staying at home more and socializing less with each other. In turn, this leads to a reduction in natural surveillance permitting further disorder and minor crimes. In sum, crime risk perception is known to be an important determinant of individuals' well-being. Therefore, it is crucial, especially for governments, to understand its determinants and those (public) policies that can reduce it. Among those policies, public resources devoted to police forces emerge as a key instrument not only to tackle criminal activity but also to impact on citizenship crime risk perception. In this framework, the aim of Chapter 4, entitled "When police patrols matter. The effect of police proximity on citizens' crime risk perception", is precisely to analyze the determinants (both individual and neighborhood) of citizens' crime risk perception for the city of Barcelona focusing on the effect of police proximity and taking into account spatial aspects of neighborhood characteristics. We measure, according to the main theoretical theories, how the simplest contact of a police officer with citizens' can affect their level of crime risk perception. In this sense, we analyze how police policies consisting of an approach to citizens, may be effective in terms of reducing peoples' crime risk perception. After controlling for possible problems of endogeneity of police forces and crime risk perception and the potential sorting of individuals across neighborhoods, our results show that crime risk perception is reduced when non-victims (randomly) interact with police forces. Moreover, neighborhood variables, such as proxies for social capital and for the level of incivilities, as well as individual characteristics have an impact on individuals' crime risk perception.

El agua es un recurso natural, a menudo escaso en cantidad y calidad, susceptible de ser analizado desde una perspectiva económica. El valor económico total del agua tiene su origen en los distintos servicios ambientales que proveen los ecosistemas hídricos, los cuáles tiene la capacidad de producir bienestar de forma activa y pasiva. A pesar del interés social en preservar y proteger estos servicios ambientales, las presiones e impactos generados por la actividad humana ha deteriorado el estado de los ecosistemas hídricos. Para hacer frente a esta situación, en la Unión Europea han sido desarrolladas diferentes normativas, de las cuáles la más ambiciosa de todas es la Directiva Marco del Agua (DMA). El objetivo de la DMA es alcanzar el buen estado ecológico de las aguas europeas en el año 2015. Sin duda, una de sus contribuciones más relevantes para la política de aguas es el papel dado al Análisis Económico. Aunque dicho papel está claramente establecido, todavía existen aspectos que necesitan ser desarrollados de una manera más operativa: (i) la estimación de costes ambientales y del recurso y de los beneficios ambientales resultantes del buen estado ecológico, (ii) la selección de medidas coste-efectivas para conseguir los objetivos de la DMA, y (iii) la evaluación de la proporcionalidad de los costes de los Programas de Medidas. El objetivo general de esta Tesis Doctoral es contribuir al desarrollo y perfeccionamiento de métodos de Análisis Económico para la implementación de la DMA. Esta investigación parte de la hipótesis de que existe una demanda social de servicios ambientales producidos por los ecosistemas hídricos que debe ser internalizada en la evaluación de políticas, planes, programas y proyectos de conservación y mejora del estado ecológico de las masas de agua. Así, las decisiones que se tomen a este respecto disfrutarán de una mayor aceptación social cuanto más se ajusten a las preferencias de los diferentes agentes implicados. Esta hipótesis es contrastada mediante la aplicación de métodos y técnicas de Análisis Económico para el caso de la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Segura. Con este propósito, esta investigación se desarrolla a través de dos etapas sucesivas y complementarias que se corresponden con dos momentos clave de la Directiva Marco del Agua. La primera etapa consiste en valorar en términos monetarios cambios en el estado ecológico de las masas de agua, con el fin de estimar los beneficios o costes ambientales de dichos cambios, así como costes del recurso. En el primer caso de estudio, se estima el valor económico total de las aguas del acuífero del Gavilán. El Método de la Función de Producción es utilizado para calcular el valor de esta agua subterránea en su uso en regadío, y el Método de la Valoración Contingente es aplicado para estimar el valor de los servicios de recreo y de soporte del ecosistema. En el segundo caso de estudio, se ha simulado un mercado hipotético a través de un Modelo de Elección (Ranking Contingente) para el caso del río Segura. Así, este método ha sido utilizado para la valoración económica de los beneficios ambientales de la mejora de la calidad del agua del río y para conocer las preferencias sociales acerca de las actuaciones de recuperación ambiental que en él se están ejecutando. El último escenario de valoración económica tiene como objetivo valorar los beneficios ambientales de la mejora de la calidad del agua en el Mar Menor mediante el Método de la Valoración Contingente. La segunda etapa metodológica de esta investigación consiste en la evaluación de Programas de Medidas. Este trabajo propone un enfoque novedoso para seleccionar medidas coste-efectivas que combina, en un procedimiento de dos etapas, Análisis Coste-Eficacia y la participación activa de stakeholders, basado en caso del Mar Menor. Primero, se llevan a cabo entrevistas personales para involucrar activamente a los stakeholders. En esta etapa, la eficacia y el impacto relativo de un conjunto de medidas son evaluados mediante la técnica de la Comparación por Parejas. En segundo lugar, la eficacia relativa de cada medida es comparada con sus costes para analizar su coste-efectividad. Finalmente, el Programa de Medidas propuesto para el Mar Menor es evaluado utilizando diferentes enfoques de Análisis Coste Beneficio (ACB) (Convencional, Extendido y Extendido Dual), para determinar si su implantación es económica y socialmente viable. Los principales resultados de esta investigación se pueden resumir en los siguientes. (i) El valor económico total de las aguas subterráneas del acuífero del Gavilán ha sido estimado en 0,45 €/m3. Si el recurso fuera modificado o eliminado y, por tanto, no pudiera cumplir con sus funciones, este valor actuaría como coste de la actividad causante del cambio del estado original. El coste del recurso incluiría el valor de agua para riego, mientras que el valor ambiental y de recreo de las aguas se incluiría en la categoría de costes ambientales. (ii) En cuanto al caso del Río Segura, desde el punto de vista social, la prioridad de gestión es mejorar la calidad del agua, seguida de las medidas de restauración de su entorno. El valor económico del caudal ecológico en el tramo estudiado es de 0,45 €/m3, y su pérdida daría lugar a un coste ambiental de esa magnitud. (iii) Los beneficios ambientales de mejorar el estado ecológico del Mar Menor han sido estimados en 17,4 millones de euros, de los cuales 7,7 se corresponden con un incremento en los valores de uso del ecosistema y 9,7 con valores de no uso. (iv) De acuerdo con las opiniones de los stakeholders entrevistados, la medida más coste-efectiva para mejorar la laguna costera del Mar Menor es construir humedales artificiales para la retención de nutrientes a modo de zonas tampón o filtros verdes. También arguyeron que los beneficios de mercado y no mercado generados por dicha mejora justificarían incluso la ampliación del Programa de Medidas. (v) El valor actual neto de mejorar el Mar Menor mediante las medidas ya propuestas ha sido estimado en 275 (ACB Extendido) y 363 (ACB Extendido Dual) millones de euros. Estos resultados también confirman la viabilidad socioeconómica de ampliar el número de medidas a aplicar. Como conclusión, una política de aguas, basada en la DMA, eficiente desde el punto de vista económico debe prestar atención a aspectos intangibles. Por un lado, no debe ignorar la existencia de valores de uso indirecto, no uso o de opción, pues también contribuyen de manera significativa al bienestar social. De otro lado, el compromiso con las generaciones actuales y futuras debe estar reflejado en los procesos de toma de decisión. En el caso de la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Segura, este trabajo ha demostrado que hay una demanda social de la mejora y conservación de los ecosistemas hídricos. Por esta razón, los gestores deben ser conscientes de los múltiples beneficios que el buen estado de los ecosistemas hídricos genera, que van más allá del simple uso consuntivo del recurso. Los casos de estudio aquí presentados constituyen un buen ejemplo de las potencialidades positivas de la apuesta por una política de conservación de los ecosistemas hídricos. En definitiva, el actual marco institucional y territorial favorece un cambio en la política de aguas, tradicionalmente basada en un modelo de oferta de recursos, hacia un paradigma basado en la concepción del agua como un activo ecosocial. Water is a natural resource – frequently scarce in terms of quantity and quality - that can be analysed from an economic perspective. The total economic value of water is due to the different ecosystem services that aquatic ecosystems provide, which are able to generate social welfare actively and passively. Despite the social interest in preserving and protecting aquatic ecosystems services, the pressures and impacts of human activities have damaged them. Being aware of this, the European Union has created many laws to protect and preserve aquatic ecosystems. The most ambitious measure for the protection of the aquatic environment is the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/CE). The objective of the WFD is to achieve a good ecological status of European water bodies by 2015. One of the most important contributions of the WFD for water policy is the crucial role given to Economics. Although such role is established clearly in the WFD, there are three main questions that still need to be operationalized: (i) the estimation of environmental and resource costs as well as the environmental benefits resulting from the good ecological status, (ii) the selection of cost-effective measures for achieving the WFD targets, and (iii) the assessment of the proportionality of Programmes of Measures. The overall objective of this PhD dissertation is to contribute to the development and improvement of economic analysis methods for implementing the main economic aspects of the WFD. The hypothesis underlying this work is that there is a social demand of aquatic environmental services that must be internalized in the decision-making processes to evaluate policies, plans, programmes and projects related to the management of water bodies. Thus, final decisions will have high acceptance if they are adopted taken into account social preferences of the different societal actors. This hypothesis is contrasted by the application of economic methods and techniques for the case of the Segura River Basin District. For this purpose, this research is developed through two successive and complementary stages that correspond to two key moments of the WFD. The first stage consists in valuing changes in the ecological status of water bodies in order to estimate environmental benefits or cost as well as resource costs. In the first case study, the total economic value of the groundwater of the Gavilán aquifer is estimated. The Production Function Approach is used to calculate the value of this groundwater for irrigation and the Contingent Valuation Method is applied to estimate the value of recreation and supporting services. In the second one, a hypothetical market is simulated through the Choice Modelling Method (via Contingent Ranking). This method is used for the economic valuation of the environmental benefits of the improvement on water quality and for knowing the social preferences about projects related to the recovering of a stretch in the Segura River. The last economic valuation scenario is aimed at valuing the benefits of the improvement of the water quality in the Mar Menor by means of the Contingent Valuation Method. The second methodological stage of this PhD dissertation deals with the evaluation of Programmes of Measures. This work proposes a novel approach to select cost-effective measures by combining Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and stakeholder participation in a two-stage procedure based on the Mar Menor case study. Firstly, face-to-face interviews are conducted to actively involve stakeholders. In this stage, relative effectiveness and relative impacts of a set of measures are estimated by means of the Pairwise Comparison Technique. Secondly, relative effectiveness is compared with costs to obtain cost-effectiveness ratios. Finally, the Programme of Measures proposed for the Mar Menor is evaluated using different schemes of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) such as Classical, Extended and Dual Extended approaches in order to determine whether its implementation is economic and socially feasible. The main findings of this research can be summarised as follows. (i) The total economic value of the groundwater of the Gavilán Aquifer has been estimated in 0.45 €/m3. If the resource was modified or eliminated, and, therefore, their functions were not fulfilled, this value would act as costs for the activity responsible for the change of the original status. The resource cost would include irrigation use value, whereas both the environmental value and recreational use value would have to be included in the environmental cost category. (ii) Regarding the Segura River case study, the management priority for the society is to ensure the river water quality, followed by the restoration measures of its surroundings. The economic value of its ecological flow value is 0.45 €/m3 and its lost would lead to an environmental costs. (iii) The environmental benefits of improving ecological status in the Mar Menor have been estimated at 17.4 million euros, of which 7.7 and 9.7 are related to the increase in the use and non-use values, respectively. (iv) As stakeholders agreed, the most cost-effective measure to improve the Mar Menor coastal lagoon is to construct wetlands as buffer zones or "green filters". They also argued that market and non-market benefits generated by the improvement of this lagoon would justify even the extension of the Programme of Measures. (v) The net present value of improving the Mar Menor by such set of measures has been estimated in 275 (Extended CBA) and 363 million of euros (Dual Extended CBA). These results also confirm the socioeconomic feasibility of extending the number of measures to be applied. To conclude, we believe that an economically efficient water policy, based on the Water Framework Directive, must pay attention to intangible aspects. On one hand, it must not ignore the existence of indirect, non-use or option values, because they also contribute meaningfully to social welfare. On the other hand, the commitment with the current and future generations must be reflected in the decision-making processes. In the case of the Segura River Basin District, this work has demonstrated that there is a social demand for improving and preserving aquatic ecosystems. For that reason, practitioners must be aware of the multiple benefits that the good ecological status of water ecosystems generates, which go beyond consumptive uses. Finally, we believe that the current institutional and territorial framework facilitates an outright shift in water policy, traditionally based on a resource supply approach, towards a paradigm based on the conception of water as an eco-social asset.

"If there was ever a doubt about just how American Mr. Obama is, Sunday's raid eliminates it better than any long-form birth certificate. This was his finest hour." Bret Stephens, the Wall Street Journal Late at night on Sunday May 1st President Obama announced to the nation that Osama Bin Laden had been found and killed by a US Navy Special Operations team. The Navy SEAL team Six, as it is known here, landed two helicopters inside a walled three-story compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where years of painstakingly gathered intelligence had led authorities to believe there was a high chance the Al Qaeda leader may be hiding. This may well have been the largest, most successful intelligence operation in US history; the President acted boldly and decisively and for that he received accolades from both sides of the political divide. Coming as it did just a month after the President launched his re-election campaign, this victory immediately boosted his approval rate by eleven points, according to surveys.Even if the strategic defeat of Al Qaeda has not yet been accomplished, this was a huge milestone and the closing of a chapter that started ten years ago when the hunt for Osama Bin Laden was launched by the Bush administration. Last week's operation resulted in the largest trove of data ever found on Al Qaeda, including information on immediate threats being planned, location and structure of its leadership, and scores of data that will help piece together a deeper understanding of their long-term tactics, techniques and procedures.Disposing of such a reviled figure who, for over ten years had ordered the killing of innocent civilians around the world, is undoubtedly a great blow both symbolic and real, to Al Qaeda, a decentralized movement whose members are tied together mainly by feelings, emotions and mythology. But does it sound the death knell for the organization? What are its short and long term implications? Al Qaeda has proven to be quite resilient, but is it still spreading and growing? More importantly, how relevant is it in the face of the Arab Spring moving throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa?All these questions need to be pondered carefully, since they have deep implications for US foreign policy in the region, for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for its difficult and troubled relation with Pakistan. This unexpected win will lead to a comprehensive reassessment of US military presence in the area, its strategies of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, and its alliance with Pakistan.American reaction to Osama Bin Laden's death was one of noisy, overt celebration in New York and DC, and of relief and jubilation in the rest of the country. It was indeed the reverse of the deep shock, terror and bereavement of 9-11, but both instances had one common denominator: there was a sense of collective emotion, of a long-forgotten and now recovered national unity. However, this did not last long as incipient criticism and second-guessing started 24 hours later over Bin Laden's burial at sea and the decision by the administration not to show pictures of his death. It came from both sides of the ideological spectrum and, in some cases, it was bolstered by strong arguments. For example Alan Dershowitz, the Harvard Law professor, considered the burial at sea a "willful destruction of evidence that may arise suspicions that there was something to hide." Others used the occasion to stir up doubts and demanded pictures to certify Bin Laden's death, but then again, these are not to be taken seriously sine they were the same groups that had to be shown a long version of the President's birth certificate as evidence he was American. A second criticism coming mainly from some Neo-conservatives, was the administration's failure to recognize publicly that the intelligence gathering that led to the finding and killing of Bin Laden was a vindication of the "enhanced interrogation techniques" (read: water boarding) used by the Bush administration in foreign detention centers and at Guantánamo, which Obama had consistently and very publicly condemned during the 2008 campaign and into his years in office.To the first, members of the administration responded that the point was to dispose of his body in a respectful manner, not because he deserved it but to deny a source of friction with other Muslims and to deprive his followers with a shrine and an opportunity to exploit him as an iconic martyr. A similar argument was used to explain the decision not to release the pictures: the President wants to avoid ostentatious displays of triumphalism that may come back to haunt him. His sobriety and restraint further reinforce the boldness of his decision and his steadfast determination to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat" Al Qaeda and not be distracted from his goal by premature claims of "mission accomplished".To the second claim, the White House responded that the success of the operation is far from a vindication of such unconstitutional techniques, since it was the result of the hard work of professionals over time and across two administrations, who integrated thousands of small pieces of intelligence gathering coming from human and technological sources into one gigantic puzzle, and that no one single piece led the US to Bin Laden. It took all the resources only the US can muster, from military bases to networks of human intelligence, to electronic eavesdropping, to specially trained forces, to locate and kill one hidden individual in a foreign country, and then match his DNA in an aircraft carrier before disposing of the corpse. But it also took a courageous American president to make such a risky call, namely, authorizing a covert operation deep into Pakistani territory based on circumstantial evidence at best, and without alerting the Pakistani authorities about it. Fortunately, wide recognition was given to the President's courage and many on the Right called it "Obama's Finest Hour". Both former President Bush and his prickly vice-president Cheney congratulated Obama and gave him full credit.A more productive conversation that has already started in academic and diplomatic circles is how relevant Bin Laden's death is for the Arab world. If he had died eight years ago, says one French scholar, he would have instantaneously become a martyr in the Arab street, an icon of anti-Western sentiment. However, in 2011, he had receded into the back of the consciousness of young Arabs for several reasons. First, because he had been in hiding for so long that his presence in the media had been noticeably diminished: out of sight, out of mind. Time spent out of the limelight erases mystiques and cools down emotions. Secondly because many saw him as the culprit for bringing the United States into Iraq and Afghanistan, which in turn gave an excuse for authoritarian regimes in the region to become even more repressive and extend their time in power. In Iraq, local Sunnis blame Al Qaeda for bringing the Shiites to power and expanding the influence of Iran in their country. Also, Bin Laden and Al Qaeda had increasingly lost the allegiance of many Muslims around the world for their indiscriminate bombings of hospitals, mosques and shrines and the killings of non-combatant Muslims in Baghdad, Basra and Amman (even if many were Shiite, the slaughter of innocent women and children caused revulsion in these populations).More importantly, the wave of pluralistic revolutions sweeping the Middle East and North Africa has rendered Al Qaeda irrelevant. There is an emerging sense of strong national identities, whereby the masses are thinking of themselves first as Egyptians, Tunisians or Libyans, with ethnicity and religion taking a secondary role. Indeed, Nasser's Pan-Arabism died the 1960sm, and the dream of a Caliphate "extending Islamic rule from Indonesia to Spain", which Bin Laden proposed as Al Qaeda's ultimate goal is no longer an interesting proposition to the extremely young populations of the region, many of whom have access to the new social media in the Internet, and who crave freedom and modernity more than anything else. The "Arab Spring" may spell the end of Al Qaeda's political aspirations for the region: the Turkish model of a secular, modern state with an overwhelmingly Islamic population and a pluralistic party system is far more appealing than the pan-Islamic caliphate of the Prophet's era. In the words of Professor Fouad Ajami, "It is risky to say, but Arabs appear to have wearied of violence…It was Bin Laden's deserved fate to be struck down when an entirely different Arab world was struggling to be born."Time and treasure spent in a ten-year war have also changed perspectives in America, especially for the younger generations. There is an on-going unofficial revision of the Bush doctrine of invading whole countries "that harbor, train or fund terrorists" in favor of narrower, more focused actions against the terrorists themselves. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have taken their toll on the American military as far as recruitment and resources. The main concern of voters is the American economy, especially unemployment and the ever-expanding national debt. A hundred and forty thousand American and NATO troops are involved in counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan, with no endgame in sight. Killings of Americans by despondent Afghan soldiers and other groups whose "hearts and minds" the US is supposed to win, occupy the headlines daily. Counter-terrorism increasingly seems to be a much more appealing and productive strategy. Expressing this widely-held sentiment, Senator Kerry recently declared: "There is no possible victory to be had in Afghanistan".Even though President Obama called it a war of necessity and has invested deeply in it, this is no longer a popular war: two-thirds of the American electorate is against it. Therefore, there will be pressure on President Obama to accelerate the phased withdrawal from Afghanistan, and complete it before the set deadline of 2014. He is a rational decision-maker who does not easily cave under pressure, but the 2012 election is likely to enter into his calculations. As a champion of counter-terrorism and opposing counter-insurgency from early on, Vice-president Biden might still be vindicated in his wisdom. When Obama opted for the surge in Afghanistan two years ago, he overruled Biden and sided with the military. Will he change his mind and speed up the withdrawal now? The killing of Bin Laden certainly gives him an opening to change his initial timetable. "Al Qaeda is no longer there, and the Taliban must be beaten by Afghans themselves", says Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations.Finally, the fact that Pakistan has proved to be an unreliable partner in the war against terrorism is also putting pressure on the President to review his Afghan policy. The alliance is frayed; Pakistan is giving sanctuary to violent militants of all sorts, and another high Al Qaeda operative now in American custody, Khalid Sheik Mohammed, was also found in Pakistan (Rawalpindi). Indeed, by the rationale of the Bush doctrine, the US should be invading Pakistan next. The White House says they have no evidence that there was any "foreknowledge" by the Pakistani leadership that Bin Laden was holed up in a one-million-dollar compound, in a military town, only 30 miles away from Islamabad. Pakistan will conduct its "own investigation" and will have to prove itself a worthy ally, for example, by sharing information gleaned from Bin Laden's three wives and several children now held under Pakistani custody. On the other hand, veteran security experts retort, more terrorists have been arrested by the Pakistani authorities since 2001 than anywhere else in the world. In this case, was it incompetence or complicity? Pakistan is a very complex country, where the military are an autonomous force above civilian rule, and they also control the Intelligence Services (ISI). It is a house divided against itself. It harbors numerous militant groups, and goes after some but not others. It hedges its bets this way so as not to lose influence and power in the region, for example by supporting the Taliban and Haqqani networks fighting to seize power in Afghanistan, and the Lashkar-e-Taiba organization against India in Kashmir. Pakistan's foreign and national security policy is built around its obsession with India, its most vilified enemy and against which it has fought several wars. It is clear now that ISI gave sophisticated support to the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2009. Pakistan needs a friendly government in Afghanistan so that it can maintain its "strategic depth" vis à vis India. Armed with over a hundred nuclear weapons and with some control over this wide array of militant groups, Pakistan is pivotal in the stability of South Asia. Those are the two main reasons why the US-Pakistani relationship survived after the Cold War ended. Because of the weakness and corruption of civilian governments, past and present, the US has preferred to engage with the military, who control the nuclear arsenal, and has made them the recipient of most US aid (indeed, by the end of this year alone the Pakistani military will have received $3 billion from the US). But this may be about to change if Pakistan rejects the US request to be in charge of the internal investigation on whether Bin Laden was given sanctuary, and if so, by whom.Now that its main leader has been killed, and in spite of its virtual irrelevance, Al Qaeda is likely to undergo an internal struggle to determine its future. The mystique of its international role has already somewhat dissipated and the different groups in the network are shifting their focus to their national agendas. Indeed, this has already been the case in Egypt, where after days of ominous silence on the Tahrir Square Revolution, Al Qaeda's second in command, Egyptian-born Al-Zwahiri injected himself in the process by supporting the leader of an Islamist party that wants post-Mubarak Egypt to adopt Sharia law. But his attempt did not resonate with the young revolutionaries, most of which want a pluralistic society and are much more concerned with jobs and government accountability than with religious utopia. However, revolutions are just the beginning of a long process, transition periods are by definition unstable, and post-revolutionary regimes have historically been highjacked by extremists. So one can only be cautiously optimistic about what will come next, but it appears as if the Middle East and the Arab world are moving on and beginning to spell the end of Al Qaeda's aspirations. Bin Laden's demise is the appropriate end of this chapter in the region's history.Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia

Aerosols play a key role in air quality (health aspects) and climate. In this thesis atmospheric chemistry transport models are used to study the uncertainties in aerosol modelling and to evaluate the effects of emission reduction scenarios on air quality. Uncertainties in: the emissions of gas and aerosol species in the inventories, in meteorological parameters, in the impact of orography on meteorology, all contribute to the uncertainties in gas and aerosol modelling and require high priority in order to estimate better the gas and aerosol concentrations for scientific research and policy making. The overall objectives of this thesis are to identify and quantify a few key uncertainties related to gas and aerosol regional and global scale modelling. These are: I. The impact of using two different emission inventories on gas and aerosol calculated concentrations. II. The role of the temporal and vertical distribution of emissions on gas and aerosol calculations. III. The impact of model resolution on aerosol calculations. IV. The impact of using two different meteorological driver models on gas and aerosol calculations. V. The impact of emission reduction scenarios on calculated air quality. VI. Strategies to evaluate model results with atmospheric measurements. In Chapter 1 an introduction to aerosols and aerosol modelling is given. In the following chapters, the subjects regarding the uncertainties in aerosol modelling are described. The first and the second subject of this thesis, the sensitivity in aerosol modelling to two different emission inventories, injection altitude and temporal variations of anthropogenic emissions, is described in chapter 2. We use the two-way nested global transport chemistry model TM5 focusing on Europe in June and December 2000. Two widely used emission inventories were available for this study. The EMEP inventory is a policy relevant European scale inventory which contains reported emissions by the member countries (http://www/emep.int), with more detailed information on the vertical, temporal and spatial distribution of the emissions. The AEROCOM inventory (Dentener et al., 2006) is a compilation of global scale aerosol and precursor emissions for the year 2000, and was used in the IPCC AR5 assessment report. The simulations of gas, aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) with the two emission inventories are compared with EMEP gas and aerosol surface based measurements, AERONET sun photometer retrievals and MODIS satellite data. We evaluated the impact of the EMEP and AEROCOM emission inventories on aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in Europe for June and December 2000. There are substantial differences between annual emissions included in the two inventories. It also appears that differences are found in the vertical distribution of the SO2 and NOx emissions. Despite these differences, for most aerosol species and aerosol precursor gases TM5 simulates the spatial and temporal distribution over Europe relatively well when compared to observations. Spatial correlations, based on monthly mean surface concentrations, are often quite high (> 0.7) and many EMEP measurement stations show high temporal correlation with the simulations using EMEP and AEROCOM. However, from the comparison with surface observations, we conclude that the AEROCOM inventory overestimates the emissions of aerosol precursor gases SO2 and NOx and NH3 emissions, especially in June. Furthermore, a lack in seasonal varia tion in the AEROCOM inventory and uncertainty in the vertical distribution of emissions (SO2 and NOx), contributes to disagreement of model and surface observations. For NH3 it seems that the inclusion of recent abatement measures in the EMEP inventory indeed leads to a better agreement with measured concentrations. The large differences in surface concentrations between the simulations are not equally reflected in corresponding differences in computed column aerosol and AOD. Model AOD computations using the AEROCOM and EMEP emission inventories reveal good agreement with surface based AERONET sun photometer observations and AOD retrieved from MODIS. Spatial patterns over Europe of AOD differ due to the varying contributions of mineral dust and inorganic aerosol, as observed by satellite and confirmed by model simulations. An evaluation of the impact on aerosol of the temporal distribution (daily, weekly and seasonal) of emissions reveals that the concentrations of most aerosol components are not strongly influenced by introduction of a high temporal resolution of emissions. The exception is aerosol nitrate and its precursor gases NOx, and NH3. However, seasonal temporal variation of the emissions do play an important role for all gas and aerosol calculations, and need to be included to accurately calculate aerosol concentrations and it's influence on air quality and climate change. The third subject of this thesis is to study the model resolution dependency on aerosol calculations, see chapter 3. For this work the mesoscale Transport of Atmospheric Pollutants Model (TAPOM) is used. Firstly, we evaluated the TAPOM performance in calculated aerosol surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) values for the greater Milan area in Italy during June 2001. Secondly, we used the model to study scale issues in aerosol modelling at three horizontal resolutions (5x5 km, 10x10 km and 20x20 km) through calculations of AOD and other aerosol properties for the same area and period. Model calculations of sulphate aerosol concentrations on a 5x5 km horizontal resolution show a reasonable agreement with measurements, i.e. within a factor 1.5 of the measurements. A comparison of aerosol optical depth calculated with the model and surface based sun photometer measurements revealed some discrepancies, which can be roughly divided in two clusters: 1. On clear, dry sky days there is a relatively good correlation between model and sun photometer AOD and satellite AOD. 2. A second group of model calculated AOD and measurements appear to be uncorrelated. The discrepancies of model results and measurements are for some days related to the underestimation of PM emissions and the lack of natural dust at the boundaries. Another reason could be related to the presence of cirrus clouds appearing as AOD in the measurements. Model calculations at 5x5 and 10x10 km horizontal resolution show a good internal agreement, whereas a model version using 20x20 km resolution loses some details regarding the spatial distribution of AOD. Daily mean and maximum coinciding model 5x5 km AOD values with MODIS and MISR AOD agree better with the observations than the computed AOD using the 20x20 km resolution. The largest differences in aerosol calculated concentrations between the different resolutions are associated with high RH (relative humidity) conditions leading to large amounts of computed aerosol water and higher AOD values. A further scale related issue is the non-linearity of aerosol formation at especially high relative humidity. These uncertainties are expected to be even more uncertain in large scale models that use fairly simplified parameterization relating relative humidity to cloud formation. Given the uncertainties in cloud screening of the satellite products, the reliability of these satellite products is often questionable and it has turned out to be difficult to make comparisons to model results at the mesoscale (like in this study). This problem is even larger for global scale models, with resolutions higher than 100x100km and less detailed emission inventories, where local and regional information are not taken into account. This study also showed the importance of accurate model boundary conditions for realistic gas, aerosol and AOD computations in regional/urban scale air quality modelling. In chapter 4, the fourth subject of thesis is described, i.e. studying the impact of two different meteorological models (MM5 and WRF) on aerosol and O3 calculations with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE. The area and period of interest is the Po valley region (Italy) for January and June 2005. The meteorological data sets used for the study were created in the frame of the Po valley air quality Model Inter-comparison (POMI) exercise, which is coordinated by the Institute of Environment and Sustainability, JRC, Ispra, Italy (http://aqm.jrc.it/POMI/). First we evaluate for January, June and the whole year the calculated meteorological parameters by MM5 and WRF (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and precipitation) with observations. The analysis shows that the overall performance of both models is similar, however some small differences are still noticeable. On a yearly basis, the temperatures are mainly underestimated (less by WRF) when compared to observations and the values of relative humidity are in general overestimated (less by MM5). WRF output follows better the hourly pattern of relative humidity. We had only two stations available with wind data. The wind speed is well reproduced for Ispra monitoring site (especially by WRF) but for Mantova is largely overestimated by both models (less by MM5). Both models do not reproduce well the wind direction. The rainfall is in general overestimated, however the MM5 output shows lower rainfall values. Secondly, we analyze the impact of using MM5 and WRF on calculated PM10 and O3 concentrations. In general the model underestimates the observed PM10 concentrations with both the MM5 and WRF meteorology, from now on denoted as CHIMERE/MM5, CHIMERE/WRF respectively. The PM10 concentrations for January are a factor 1.6 higher for CHIMERE/MM5 than CHIMERE/WRF. The concentrations of gases and aerosols at ground level strongly depend on the profile of the planetary boundary layer. Therefore we examined the PBL profiles and the latent and sensible heat fluxes which are responsible for the PBL formation. The difference and the larger underestimation in PM10 concentrations by CHIMERE/WRF are related to the differences in heat fluxes and the resulting PBL heights calculated by WRF. In general the PBL height by WRF meteorology is a factor 2.8 higher at noon in January than calculated by MM5. This could result in a better vertical mixing of the aerosols than CHIMERE/MM5, causing lower aerosol concentrations at the surface. Changing the Noah LSM scheme in our WRF pre-processing for the 5-layer soil temperature model, leads to an increase of the calculated PM10 concentrations of 30% for January 2005 when compared to the simulation using Noah LSM. This study also showed that the difference in microphysics scheme has an impact on the profile of cloud liquid water (CLW) calculated by the meteorological driver and therefore on the production and removal of SO4 = aerosol. For June the differences in PM10 concentrations between the model simulations using MM5 and WRF are small. Analyzing the heat fluxes and the diurnal behaviour of the PBL height we observe small differences between the two meteorological models. In the previous chapters, three major uncertainties which contribute to modelled aerosol calculations are described. It is crucial to understand how important these sources of uncertainties contribute to the model outcome, especially when the model results are used for policy relevant studies. In the last chapter of this thesis (chapter 5) we performed a case study to evaluate the impact of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O3 calculated concentrations for the Po valley area, by using the chemistry transport model CHIMERE. Comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations by the model for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005 shows that the monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated by a factor 1.4. To evaluate the impact of emission reduction scenarios we reduced the emissions of NOx, PM2.5, SO2, VOC or NH3 by 50% separately for each component and for different source sectors, together with 5 additional scenarios. The 50% reduction of the emissions corresponds to the application of the current legislation for PM2.5 for Italy which should be met in 2010 in respect to the emissions of the base year 2000 (EURODELTA exercise: http://aqm.jrc.it/eurodelta/, which is carried out in the frame of the Clean Air For Europe programme, CAFE). The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the nonindustrial combustion plants, i.e. domestic heating (SNAP2) and road traffic (SNAP7) sectors, for which the NOx and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. These scenarios reduce the monthly calculated PM2.5 concentrations for the Po valley area for January on average by 1-6µg/m3. However, these emission reduction scenarios for domestic heating and traffic do not have an effect on lowering the number of days for which the planned European limit value (Directive 2008/50/EC) of 25µg/m3 is exceeded. Only by combining the emission reductions of NOx, PM25, SO2, VOC and NH3 for domestic heating, road traffic and agriculture (SNAP10) results in a larger reduction of PM2.5 calculated concentrations over the larger area in the Lombardy region (~20%), which corresponds with the findings of a similar study performed by APAT (the Italian National Agency for environmental protection and technical services). In the APAT study more than one species was reduced for different activity sectors. Our study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per tonne of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for road traffic. The most effective scenario on (secondary) PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO2 emissions by 50% for road traffic. Our study showed that during summer, the largest reductions in O3 concentrations are achieved for SNAP 7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%. It appears that around 40% of the PM2.5 concentration for Milan is caused by the emissions from surroundings of the Lombardy region as well as by longrange transport from elsewhere (as reflected as model boundary conditions). Therefore effective abatement of air pollution does need the consideration of the transboundary aspects of air pollution. Our study showed that differences may occur between measurement (ground based and space born) data sets for the same variable and time period. This complicates the use of observations for model evaluation purposes. The main conclusions of this thesis can be summarized as: • The amounts and the temporal and vertical distributions of the emissions are important for gas and aerosol calculations, especially when calculations are compared to surface measurements. • Going to a finer model resolution results in better agreement between calculated aerosol and AOD values and observations. • The PBL height and vertical mixing of the lower troposphere determine to a large extend the surface gas and aerosol concentrations. These boundary layer characteristics are strongly determined by the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface. • Local emission reductions result in a local improvement in air quality.Longrange transport is however also very important for reducing local pollution. • Surface and space born measurements of gas phase and aerosol components are crucial for evaluating model results. However inconsistencies in measurement data sets make it complicated for reliable comparisons with model simulations.

INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS - ICSU SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL Newsletter No.65 August 1997 Code Number:NL97009 Sizes of Files: Text: 100.8K Graphics: No associated graphics files MEETING REPORTS ADVISORY COMMITTEE FOR THE ICSU'S PROGRAMME ON CAPACITY BUILDING IN SCIENCE Julia Marton-Lefevre, Executive Director, ICSU The first meeting of the Advisory Committee for the newly launched ICSU Programme on Capacity Building in Science (PCBS) took place in Paris at the end of June. The Members of the Advisory Committee are listed. The meeting was also attended by a number of invited observers from UNESCO and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. The Advisory Committee reviewed plans for launching a Programme organized around the previously identified themes of Primary Level Education; Public Understanding of Science, and the Organization of Actions to Reduce the Isolation of Scientists. It was agreed that the Programme should initially concentrate on a few highly visible pilot projects in each of the areas and that some of these should begin immediately. FIRST MEETING OF THE STANDING COMMITTEE ON RESPONSIBILITY AND ETHICS IN SCIENCE (SCRES) Oslo, Norway, 19-22 June 1997 Kathinka Evers, Executive Secretary, SCRES The recently established Standing Committee on Responsibility and Ethics in Science (SCRES) held its first meeting 19-22 June 1997 at the Norwegian Academy of Science in Oslo, Norway. The main task of the meeting was to establish the precise role that SCRES should play in the future: what are its main goals? what does SCRES aim to produce? who is the intended audience? The first discussion focused on how the committee intends to operate, and how it should communicate with other ICSU members. ICSU PRESS ACTIVITIES: ELECTRONIC PUBLISHING IN SCIENCE Sir Roger Elliott, Chairman ICSU Press When the General Assembly in Washington received the report of the UNESCO/ICSU Press Expert Conference on Electronic Publishing in Science it charged the ICSU Press Committee with the task of undertaking the follow-up activities which derived from the recommendations of the Conference. SPOTLIGHTS ON SCIENCE WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME (WCRP): Further Strategic Steps in Internationally Coordinated Climate Research: a report of the eighteenth session of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for the WCRP H. Grassl, Director, WCRP The WCRP is jointly sponsored by ICSU, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. Overall scientific guidance for the programme is provided by the ICSU/WMO/IOC Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), consisting of eighteen scientists selected by mutual agreement between the three sponsoring organizations and representing the atmospheric, oceanographic, hydrological and polar science communities. At the kind invitation of the Atmospheric Environment Service of Canada, the eighteenth annual session of the Committee was held in Toronto from 17 to 21 March 1996. IGCP: INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATIVE PROGRAMMES CENTRAL TO THE IGCP ENVIRONMENTAL DEBATE Edward Derbyshire Chairman IGCP What's in a name? Seen from outside, a programme with the title of "international Geological Correlation Programme" might appear rather narrow and prescriptive. in particular, the word "correlation" could even be construed as indicating that the IGCP is concerned with ensuring that national programmes conform to some kind of scientific norm. in fact, neither of these two impressions could be farther from the truth. It may not be generally known that the IGC]? is widely regarded as the most successful international collaborative programme of its type. Jointly sponsored by UNESCO and the international Union of Geological Sciences (lUGS), it brings together researchers in all aspects of the study of the solid earth sciences. It is open to scientists from any nation, and may be led by geoscientists of any nationality. This is vitally important for, after all, geological boundaries do not stop at national borders! THREAT TO FULL AND OPEN ACCESS TO DATA Ferris Webster, Chairman, ICSU Group on Data and Information New intellectual property laws may have potential adverse effects on the conduct of science and education. That was the principal concern of the Group on Data and Information of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the Commission on Data Access of the Committee on Data for Science and Technology (CODATA), which met jointly at ICSU Headquarters in June. At issue is the protection of databases that lack creativity in the selection, arrangement, or presentation of the information even though they may require a substantial amount of time, effort, or financial investment to produce. The creative elements of databases are already protected under copyright. The proposed sui generis right would in addition protect the contents (i.e., the facts themselves) of databases. Thus, all. sorts of compilations of data or datasets that have traditionally been in the public domain for lack of sufficient "originality" (to make them copyrightable) will now be protected against unauthorized uses and would enable the database owners to charge at whatever level they chose for authorized use. ENVIRONMENT EARTH COUNCIL: RIO+5 - FROM AGENDA TO ACTION Rio de Janeiro, 13-19 March 1997 Sophie Boyer King, Environmental Science Officer, ICSU The Earth Council was set up in 1992, with ICSU's sponsorship, and is principally aimed at encouraging non-governmental bodies to be involved in environment and development issues. The culmination of these activities led to a series of events in Rio de Janeiro in March 1997, five years after the Earth Summit: Rio+5, from Agenda to Action. ICSU agreed to contribute to the Earth Council's Rio+5 activities, providing inputs before the conference, and playing an important facilitator and participatory role during the March events. As part of preliminary reporting activities, ICSU conducted a survey among its members regarding the progress and difficulties in the implementation of ASCEND 21 (Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century). Responses received were incorporated into a Special Focus Report, one of the many documents which shaped the Rio+5 agenda. DIALOGUE SESSION ON SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES Fifth Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development, United Nations, April 1997 Sophie Boyer King, Environmental Sciences Officer, ICSU ICSU was invited by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (UN CSD) to participate in and facilitate a dialogue session of scientific and technological communities with UN government delegates, as part of the Fifth session of the CSD. Each Major Group had three hours in which to make presentations and respond to questions from the floor, in a first-time event at a UN session. JOINT SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL COMMITTEE FOR GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM (J-GOOS) Sophie Boyer King, Environmental Sciences Officer, ICSU The fourth meeting of J-GOOS took place in Miami on the 23-25 April 1997. During the two days preceding J-GOOS IV, the JGOOS ad hoc planning group had met to discuss the progress and direction of the J-GOOS plan, GOOS 1998. J-GOOS was informed of a proposal to merge the Strategic Sub Committee (SSC) of the Intergovernmental Committee of GOOS (I-GOOS), with J-GOOS to form a GOOS Steering Committee. This committee would have more executive functions than the present J-GOOS and would include members from operational organisations to reflect this. After some discussion, J-GOOS endorsed the proposal for a restructured GOOS. The new director of the GOOS Project Office, Dr Colin Summerhayes, updated participants on the activities of the office, including increasing coordination with the various communities which contribute to the development of GOOS. IGBP AT UNGASS EXHIBITION During the Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Rio+5 (UNGASS), an exhibition was held showing "Sustainable Development in Action". The IGBP was part of this exhibition and presented posters that were specially developed for this event. In addition, the homepage was made available for browsing and a selection of IGBP Reports and Newsletters was displayed. ENVIRONMENT OCEAN CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE: The 1998 WOCE Conference, Halifax, N.S. Canada, 24-29 May 1998 World Ocean Circulation Experiment: WOCE is a component of the World Climate Research Programme investigating the role played by the ocean circulation in the earth's climate system. Its aim is to develop improved ocean circulation models for use in climate research. The WOCE observational phase from 1990-1997 has used satellites and in-situ physical and chemical measurements to produce a data set of unprecedented scope and precision. WOCE is now entering its phase of Analysis, interpretation, Modelling and Synthesis (AIMS) which will continue until the end of WOCE in 2002. The reconciliation of model results and observations, and ultimately the assimilation of ocean data into models, presents the ocean science community with a novel set of challenges. HOUSE NEWS NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF ICSU Jean-Francois Stuyck-Taillandier has been appointed to replace Julia Marton-Lefevre and will become Executive Director of ICSU, for an initial 2-year period, as of 1 September. NEW EXECUTIVE SECRETARY OF SCRES Kathinka Evers, a native of Sweden, graduated in Philosophy at the Lund University and later obtained a doctorate in philosophy of science and logic in 1991. NEW CHAIRMAN OF IGBP Dr. Berrien Moore III was recently appointed to replace Dr Peter Liss as the Chair of the SC-IGBP and will start his term at the beginning of 1998. Moore is a mathematician from the USA and is Director of the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space at the University of New Hampshire. NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF IGBP IGBP and ICSU are happy to announce the appointment of the new Executive Director of IGBP. Will Steffen, an Australian national, is due to replace Chris Rapley in January 1998. SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPMENT SCIENCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES G.Thyagarajan, Scientific Secretary, COSTED-IBN EXCERPTS FROM THE PRESENTATION AT THE 25TH ICSU GA, WASHINGTON D C The Global Science & Technology Scenario Threat of Scientific and Technological Marginalisation Special Problems of Small States INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS During the last five years no other issue has engaged the attention of national governments, politicians, scientists and technologists, industrialists, trade leaders, the media and the wider public, as the Uruguay Round, GATT, the Marrakech Agreement and the arrival of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Reactions have ranged from complete faith in the new order to its abject rejection. The issues generated are complex and have the potential to have far-reaching implications because, unlike the original GATT (which concerned international trade rules in the goods sector only) the 'Final Round' entered three new areas namely, Investment, Intellectual Property Rights and Services. It also extended to the sensitive areas of agriculture and textiles. 32ND COSPAR SCIENTIFIC ASSEMBLY and Associated Events - 40th Anniversary Nagoya, Japan, 12 - 19 July 1998 Preliminary Program CALENDAR Details of forthcoming events from August 1997 to November 1997. PLANS TO FOLLOW UP TO THE REPORT ON THE ASSESSMENT OF ICSU Members of the ICSU family received a memorandum sent from Paris on 4 July with information pertaining to the preparation of the Extraordinary General Assembly of ICSU to be held in Vienna, Austria on 25 April 1998 and with the Executive Board's proposals to follow up the recommendations contained in the Report on the Assessment of ICSU. The Extraordinary General Assembly, was called for by a Resolution at the 25th General Assembly of ICSU which requested "that the Executive Board formulate a strategy for responding to the recommendations of the Assessment Panel Report and present its suggestions for approval by an Extraordinary General Assembly.". Summary of Executive Board's proposals to follow up the Report on the Assessment of ICSU LIST OF MEMBERS OF THE ICSU GENERAL COMMITTEE FOR THE PERIOD 1996-1999 EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCES Co-sponsored by the European Science Foundation and the Euroconferences Activity of the European Union Space-Time Modelling of Bounded Natural Domains: Virtual Environments for the Geosciences near Kerkrade The Netherlands, 9-14 December 1997 GLOBAL CHANGE SCIENTIST The Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling task force (GAIM) of the lnternational Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) invites applications and nominations for a Science Officer to begin in September, 1997.

R. S. Fitton and A. P. Wadsworth. The Strutts and the Arkwrights, 1758‐1830: A Study of the Early Factory System. (Manchester University Press. 1958. Pp. xvii +361. 35s.)T. S. Willan. Studies in Elizabethan Foreign Trade. (Manchester University Press. 1959. Pp. x + 349. 35s.)R. S. Sayers. Lloyd's Bank in the History of English Banking. (Oxford University Press. 1957. Pp. xiv +381. 35s.)Charles Newman. The Evolution of Medical Education in the Nineteenth Century. (Oxford University Press. 1957. Pp. x + 340. 30 s.)Godfrey Davies. The Early Stuarts 1603‐1660. (Oxford University Press. 1959. 2nd Edition. Pp. xxiii + 458. 35s.)CHARLES HADFIELD. British Canals. An Illustrated History. (Phoenix House.'959‐ pP‐ 291‐ 36sT. W. Freeman. The Conurbations of Great Britain. (Manchester University Press. 1959. Pp. xii + 393. 37s. 6d.)Publications of the Bedfordshire Historical Record Society. Vol. XXXVIII. Ed. JOYCE GODBER. (Luton, Beds. 1958. Pp. 109. Price to non‐members, 25.1.)Enid M. Dance (Ed.). Guildford Borough Records 1514‐1546. (Surrey Record Society. 1958. Pp. xlvi + 153. 4 plates. 355.)William Letwin. Sir Josiah Child‐Merchant Economist, with a reprint of Brief Observations concerning trade, and interest of money (1668). (Publication Number 14 of the Kress Library of Business and Economics. Boston: Baker Library, Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. 1959. Pp. vi + 76. $2.00.)A. L. POOLE (Ed.). Medieval England. Vols. I and II. (Oxford University Press. 1958. Pp. xxviii and xiii +661. 70s.)Joan Thirsk and Jean Imray. (Eds.). Suffolk Farming in the Nineteenth Century. (Suffolk Records Society. Vol. I. 1958. Pp. 178. 255.)J. H. Morris and L. J. Williams. The South Wales Coal Industry 1841‐1875. (Cardiff: University of Wales Press. 1958. Pp. xiv + 289. 255.)Wallace T. MacCaffrey. Exeter 1540‐1640. (Harvard University Press. 1959‐ PP‐ 310‐ 45sBasil, E. Cracknell. Canvey Island: The History of a Marshland Community. (Leicester University Press. Department of English Local History. Occasional Paper, no. 12. 1959. Pp. 48. 12s.)Richard Pankhurst. The Saint‐Simonians, Mill and Carlyle. (Sidgwick and Jackson. 1957. Pp. x + 154. 21s)André Gouron. La reglementation des metiers en Languedoc au Moyen dge. (Paris‐Geneva, Droz. 1959. Pp. 439).Le Mavire et I'economie maritime, du Moyen age au XVIIIe sikle, principalement en Mediterranee. (Travaux du 2me collogue international d'Histoire maritime, edited by Michel Mollat, assisted by Commandant Denoix and Olivier de Prat.) (Paris, S.E.V.P.E.N. 1958. Pp. xii + 220, ill.)Jan Craeybeckx. Un grand commerce d'importation: les vins de France aux anciens Pays Bos, XIIIe‐XVIe siècles. (Paris, S.E.V.P.E.N. 1958. Pp. xxxii +315, ill.)D. T. Pottinger. The French Book Trade in the Ancien Rigime 1500‐1791(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press; London: Oxford University Press. 1958. Pp. xiv + 363. 60s.)Paul Adam. Etude nautique du problème du Vinland (Revue d'histoire kono‐tnique et sociale, XXXVII, 1959, 20‐42.)Paul Lemerle. Esquisse pour une histoire agraire de Byzance: les sources et les problemes (Revue Historique, 1958, CCXIX, 254‐284, et CCXX, 43‐94.)Maurice Lombard. Une carte du bois dans la Mediterranee musulmane, VIIe‐XIe siècle (Annales E.S.C. XIV, 1959, 234‐254.)Andre Dupont. Sexploitation du sel sur les 6tangs de Languedoc, IXe‐Xllle siècle (Annales du Midi, LXX, 1958, 7‐26.)Bernard Vigneron. La vente dans le Mâconnais du IXe au XIIe siècle (Revue historique de droit français et étranger, XXXVII, 1959, 17‐47.)Mireille Castaing‐Sicard. Donations toulousaines du Xe au XIIIe siècle (Annales du Midi, LXX, 1958, 27‐64.)Jean Combes. Les foires en Languedoc au moyen âge (Annales E.S.C. XIII, 1958, 231‐259.)Robert S. Lopez.Le marchand genois. Un profil collectif [Annales E.S.C. XIII, 1958, 501‐515.)Edouard Perroy et Etienne Fournial. Réalités monétaires et réalités économiques (Annales E.S.C. XIII, 1958, 533‐540.)Hans van Werveke. La famine de l'an 1316 en Flandre et dans les regions voisines (Revue du Nord, XLI, 1959, 5‐14.)Georges Duby. Techniques et rendements agricoles dans les Alpes du Sud en 1338 (Annales du Midi, LXX, 1958, 403‐ 414.)Pierre Tucoo‐Chala. Les relations economiques entre le Beam et les pays de la Couronne d'Aragon du milieu du XIIIe siècle au milieu du XVe (Bulletin philologique et historique …. du Comite des Travaux historiques et scientifiques, 1957, publie en 1958, pp. 115‐136.)Pierre J. Capra. Recherches sur la valeur des monnaies dans le Bordelais au temps de la lieutenance du Prince Noir, de 1354 a 1357 (Bulletin philologique et historique …. du Comite des Travaux historiques et scientifiques, 1957, publie en 1958, pp. 471‐563.)Robert Bautier. Feux, population et structure sociale au milieu du XVe siecle. L'exemple de Carpentras (Annales E.S.C. XIV, 1959, 255‐268.)Henri Lapeyre. Une lettre de change endossée en 1430 (Annales E.S.C. XIII, 1958, 260‐264, fac sim.)Jacques Heers. Le prix de l'assurance maritime a la fin du moyen age (Revue d'Histoire économique et sociale, XXXVII, 1959, 7‐19.)Constantin Marinesco. Les affaires commerciales en Flandre d'Alphonse V d'Aragon, roi de Naples, 1416‐1458 (Revue Historique, CCXXI, 1959, 33‐48.)Michel Mollat. Recherches sur les finances des dues Valois de Bourgogne (Revue Historique, CCXIX, 1958, 285‐321.)Max Weber. Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Abriss der universalen Sozial und Wirtschafts‐geschichte. (Ed. S. Hellmann and M. Palyi. Third edition, revised and supplemented by J. Winckelmann.) (Berlin: Duncker and Humblot. 1958. Pp. xxiii + 355. DM 28.80.)Ludwig Beutin. Einführung in die Wirtschaftsgeschichte. (Cologne and Graz: Bohlau. 1958. Pp. xii + 179. DM 9.8o.)Johannes Schildhauer. Soziale, politische und religiose Auseinandersetzungen in der Hansestadten Stralsund, Rostock und Wismar im ersten Drittel des 16. Jahrhunderts. (Abhandlungen zur Handels‐ und Sozialgeschichte, edited by the Hansischen Geschichtsverein. Vol 11. Weimar. 1959. Pp xii +282.)Rudolf Forberger. Die Manufaktur in Sachsen vom Ende des 16. bis mm Anfang des 19. Jahrhunderts. (Deutsche Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin, Schriften des Instituts für Geschichte, Reihe 1: Allgemeine und deutsche Geschichte, Vol. 3. Akademie‐Verlag, Berlin. 1958. Pp. ix + 456 + 2 maps. DM 46.‐.)Ingomar Bog. Der Reichsmerkantilismus. Studien zur Wirtschaftspolitik des Heiligen Romischen Reiches im 17. und 18. Jahrhundert. (Stuttgart: Gustav Fischer. 1959. Pp. 194. DM 29.50.)Theodore S. Hamerow. Restoration, Revolution, Reaction: Economics and Politics in Germany, 1815‐1871. (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. 1958. Pp. xi + 347. $6.00.)Gerhard Bondi. Deutschlands Aufienhandel 1815‐1870. (Deutsche Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin. Schriften des Instituts für Geschichte Reihe I, Band 5. Berlin: Akademie‐Verlag. 1958. Pp. viii + 156. DM (Ost) 8.‐.)Theodor Schieder. Staat und Gesellschaft im Wandel unserer Zjeit. Studien zur Geschichte des ig. und 20. Jahrhunderts. (Miinchen: Oldenbourg. 1958. Pp. 208. DM 18.50.)Adolf Trende. Geschichte der deutschen Sparkassen bis zum Anfang des 20. Jahr‐hunderts. (Stuttgart: Deutscher Sparkassenverlag. 1957. Pp. xii ‐f‐ 610. DM 34.50.)W. G. Hoffmann, J. H. Müller. Das deutsche Volkseinkommen, 1851‐1957. (Tübingen: J. C. B. Mohr [Paul Siebeck]. 1959. Pp. 162. DM 16.50.)Heinrich Benedikt. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in der Franz‐Joseph‐eit. (Wiener Historische Studien, Vol. IV. Vienna, Munich: Herold. 1958. Pp. 200. DM 17.50.)Hans Georg Kirchhoff. Die staatliche Sozialpolitik im Ruhrbergbau, 1871‐1914. (Wissenschaftliche Abhandlungen der Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Forschung des Landes Nordrhein‐Westfalen, Vol. 4. Köln und Opladen: West‐deutscher Verlag. 1958. Pp. 179. DM 12.80.)Karl Erich Born. Staat und Sozialpolitik seit Bismarcks Sturz‐ Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte der innenpolitischen Entwicklung des Deutschen Retches 1890‐1914. (Historische Forschungen im Auftrag der Historischen Kommission der Mainzer Akademie der Wissenschaften und der Literatur. Hefraus‐gegeben von O. Brunner, P. Rassow, J. Vogt. Vol. I. Wiesbaden: Franz Steiner. 1957. Pp. 256. DM 24.‐.)Wilhelm Brepohl. Vom Industrievolk an der Ruhr. (Schriftenreihe Ruhr und Rhein, Ed. Fritz Pudor, Heft 4. Essen: West‐Verlag. 1957. Pp. 73. DM 3.30.)Gerhard Gebhardt (Ed.). Ruhrbergbau. Geschichte, Aufbau und Verflechtung seiner Gesellschqften und Organisationen. (Compiled in collaboration with the mining companies of the Ruhr.) (Essen: Verlag Glückauf. 1957. Pp. xvi + 580. DM 28.‐.)Heinz Haushofer. Ideengeschichte der Agrarwirtschqft und Agrarpolitik im deutschen Sprachgebiet. Vol. II. Vom ersten Weltkrieg bis zur Gegenwart. (Bonn, Munich, Vienna: Bayerischer Landwirtschaftsverlag. 1958. Pp. 439. 12 art prints. DM 54.‐.)Gerhard Kroll. Von der Weltwirtschaftskrise zur Staatskonjunktur. (Berlin: Duncker und Humblot. 1958. Pp. 743. DM 56.80.)Fritz Behrens. Einige Fragen der okonomischen Entwicklung im Lichte der Grqfien Sozialistischen Oktoberrevolution. (Deutsche Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin, Vortrage und Schriften, Heft 63. East Berlin: Akademie‐Ver‐lag. 1958. Pp. 21. DM 1.40.)Hildebrandt‐Böhme. Die Schwerindustrie in der Sowjetunion. Entwicklung und Probleme. (Introduction and Comments by Walter Hildebrandt. Selection and Translation by Gisela Bohme.) (Bad Homburg, Berlin, Zurich: Max Gehlen. 1957. Pp. 520. DM48.50.)Helmut Croon, Kurt Utermann. Zeche und Gemeinde. Untersuchungen über den Strukturwandel einer Zechengemeinde im nördlichen Ruhrgebiet. (Soziale Forschung und Praxis. Ed. Sozialforschungsstelle an der Universität Minister, Dortmund. Vol. 19. Tübingen: J. C. B. Mohr [Paul Siebeck]. 1958. Pp. x + 305, 1 map. DM 25.60.)Max Silberschmidt. Amerikas industrielle Entwicklung. Von der Zeit der Pioniere zur Ara von Big Business. (Sammlung Dalp. Vol. 86. Berne: A. Francke. 1958. Pp. 240. S frs. 9.80; DM 9.40.)A. Hoffmann.'Die Grundherrschaft als Unternehmen', Zeitschrift für Agrar‐geschichte und Agrarsoziologie, VI (1958), 123‐131.H. ‐J. Stiebens.'Die Gehöferschaften des Trierer Bezirks und sonstige alt‐deutsche Gemeinschaften in Rheinland‐Pfalz', Zeitschrift für Agrarge‐schichte und Agrarsoziologie, VI (1958), 131‐143.K. Lippmann.'Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Landwirtschaft und der Wandel im Bereich des Bäuerlichen', zeitschrift für Agrargeschichte und Agrarsoziologie, VI (1958), 155‐176.I. Leister.'Zum Problem des "Keltischen Einzelhofs" in Irland', Zeitschrift für Asrargeschichte und Agrarsoziologie, VII (1959), 3‐13W. Achilles.'Getreidepreise und Getreidehandelsbeziehungen europaischer Raume im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert', Zeitschrift für Agrargeschichte und Agrarsoziologie, VII (1959), 32‐55‐W. Schubring.'Betriebs‐ und Grundbesitzverhaltnisse der Agrarwirtschaft der Welt', Zeitschrift für Agrargeschichte und Agrarsoziologie, VII (1959), 56‐80.H. Kellenbenz.'Der italienische Grosskaufmann und die Renaissancé, Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial‐ und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, XXXXV (1958), 145‐167.M. Barkhausen. Staatliche Wirtschaftslenkung und freies Unternehmertum im westdeutschen und im nord‐ und sudniederlandischen Raum bei der Entstehung der neuzeitlichen Industrie im 18. Jahrhundert, Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial‐ und Wirtschqftsgeschichte, XXXXV (1958), 168‐241.H. Stoob.'Minderstädte. Formen der Stadtentstehung im Spatmittel‐alter', Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial‐ und Wirtschqftsgeschichte, XXXXVI (1959), 1‐28K. E. Born. 'Sozialpolitische Probleme und Bestrebungen in Deutschland von 1848 bis zur Bismarckschen Sozialgesetzgebung', Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial‐ und Wirtschqftsgeschichte, XXXXVI (1959), 29‐44.W. Kollmann.'Industrialisierung, Binnenwanderung und "Soziale Frage". (Zur Entstehungsgeschichte der deutschen Industriegroßstadt im 19. Jahrhundert)', Vierteljahrsschrift für Sozial‐ und Wirtschqftsgeschichte, XXXXVI (1959), 45‐70.W. Treue.'Die Ilseder Hütte und der Staat in den Jahren 1916 bis 1919′, Tradition, ZeitschriftfurFirmengeschichte und Untemehmerbiographie, III (1958), 129‐140.P. E. Schramm.'Kaufleute während Besatzung, Krieg und Belagerung (1806‐1815). Der Hamburger Handel in der Franzosenzeit, dargestellt an Hand von Firmen‐ und Familienpapieren', Tradition, Zeitschrift für Firmengeschichte und Untemehmerbiographie, IV (1959), 1‐22 and 88‐114.E. v. BÖVENTER.'Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen amerikanischer Rezes‐sionen auf die iibrige Welt. Eine Untersuchung über die amerikanischen Konjunkturriickschlage, 1937/38, 1949 und 1953/54′, ‐zeitschrift für die p&amte Staatswissenschaft. CXIV (1958). 297‐330.H. Sperling.'Die wirtschaftliche Struktur des Erwerbslebens der Bundes‐republik im internationalen Vergleich', Schmollers Jahrbuch, LXXVIII (1958) 149‐166A. Hauser.'Die Schweiz und der Deutsche Zollverein, Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, XCIV (1958), 482‐494.Rosario Romeo. Risorgimento e Capitalismo. (Bari: Laterza. 1959. Pp. 209. Lire 1400.)L. Dal Pane. Storia del Lavoro in Italia. Vol IV. Dagli Inizi del secolo XVIII al 1815. (Milano: Giuffré. 1958 Pp. xx + 629.)R. P. Dore. Land Reform in Japan. (Royal Institute of International Affairs and Oxford University Press. 1959. Pp. xvii +510. 55J.)Albert Feuerwerker. China's Early Industrialization: Sheng Hsuan‐huai (1844‐1916) and Mandarin Enterprise. (Harvard University Press; Oxford University Press. 1958. Pp. xiii + 311+ xxxii. $ 6.50; 52s.)Sally Falk Moore. Power and Property in Inca Peru. (Columbia University Press. New York. 1958. Pp. 190. 405.)University Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology, Downing Street, CambridgeWoodrow Borah and Sherburne F. Cook. Price trends of some basic commodities in Centrpl Mexico, 1531‐1570. (Ibero‐Americana 40, University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles. 1958. Pp. 89. $2.00.)Florian Paucke S.J. Zwettler Codex 420. Part 1, ed. Etta Becker‐Donner with the collaboration of Gustav Otruba. (Publications of the Archive for Ethnology, Vol. IV/i, Vienna. Wilhelm Braumuller Universitäts:Ver‐lagsbuchhandlung, 1959. Pp. 444 with 29 illustrations.)JOHN B. RAE. American Automobile Manufacturers. A History of the Automobile Industry: The First Forty Tears. (Philadelphia and New York: Chilton Company. 1959. Pp. 223. $6.00.)Russel Ward. The Australian Legend. (Melbourne University Press; London, Cambridge University Press. 1958. Pp. xii + 262. 45s.)Eric Stokes. The English Utilitarians and India. (Oxford University Press. 1959. Pp‐ 350‐ 45sF. Klemm. A History of Western Technology. (Translated by D. W. Singer. Allen and Unwin. 1959. Pp. 401. 32s.)W. G. Hoffmann. The Growth of Industrial Economics. (Translated from the German by W. O. Henderson and W. H. Chaloner.) (Manchester University Press. 1958. Pp. xiii + 183. 25J.)E.J. Hobsbawm. Primitive Rebels. (Manchester University Press. 1959. Pp. vii + 208. 25s.)