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We present top-down constraints on global monthly N[subscript 2]O emissions for 2011 from a multi-inversion approach and an ensemble of surface observations. The inversions employ the GEOS-Chem adjoint and an array of aggregation strategies to test how well current observations can constrain the spatial distribution of global N[subscript 2]O emissions. The strategies include (1) a standard 4D-Var inversion at native model resolution (4° × 5°), (2) an inversion for six continental and three ocean regions, and (3) a fast 4D-Var inversion based on a novel dimension reduction technique employing randomized singular value decomposition (SVD). The optimized global flux ranges from 15.9 Tg N yr[superscript −1] (SVD-based inversion) to 17.5–17.7 Tg N yr[superscript −1] (continental-scale, standard 4D-Var inversions), with the former better capturing the extratropical N[subscript 2]O background measured during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaigns. We find that the tropics provide a greater contribution to the global N[superscript 2]O flux than is predicted by the prior bottom-up inventories, likely due to underestimated agricultural and oceanic emissions. We infer an overestimate of natural soil emissions in the extratropics and find that predicted emissions are seasonally biased in northern midlatitudes. Here, optimized fluxes exhibit a springtime peak consistent with the timing of spring fertilizer and manure application, soil thawing, and elevated soil moisture. Finally, the inversions reveal a major emission underestimate in the US Corn Belt in the bottom-up inventory used here. We extensively test the impact of initial conditions on the analysis and recommend formally optimizing the initial N[superscript 2]O distribution to avoid biasing the inferred fluxes. We find that the SVD-based approach provides a powerful framework for deriving emission information from N2O observations: by defining the optimal resolution of the solution based on the information content of the inversion, it provides spatial information that is lost when aggregating to political or geographic regions, while also providing more temporal information than a standard 4D-Var inversion. ; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA13OAR4310086) ; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA13OAR4310081)

We present top-down constraints on global monthly N2O emissions for 2011 from a multi-inversion approach and an ensemble of surface observations. The inversions employ the GEOS-Chem adjoint and an array of aggregation strategies to test how well current observations can constrain the spatial distribution of global N2O emissions. The strategies include (1) a standard 4D-Var inversion at native model resolution (4° × 5°), (2) an inversion for six continental and three ocean regions, and (3) a fast 4D-Var inversion based on a novel dimension reduction technique employing randomized singular value decomposition (SVD). The optimized global flux ranges from 15.9 TgNyr-1 (SVD-based inversion) to 17.5-17.7 TgNyr-1 (continental-scale, standard 4D-Var inversions), with the former better capturing the extratropical N2O background measured during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaigns. We find that the tropics provide a greater contribution to the global N2O flux than is predicted by the prior bottom-up inventories, likely due to underestimated agricultural and oceanic emissions. We infer an overestimate of natural soil emissions in the extratropics and find that predicted emissions are seasonally biased in northern midlatitudes. Here, optimized fluxes exhibit a springtime peak consistent with the timing of spring fertilizer and manure application, soil thawing, and elevated soil moisture. Finally, the inversions reveal a major emission underestimate in the US Corn Belt in the bottom-up inventory used here. We extensively test the impact of initial conditions on the analysis and recommend formally optimizing the initial N2O distribution to avoid biasing the inferred fluxes. We find that the SVD-based approach provides a powerful framework for deriving emission information from N2O observations: by defining the optimal resolution of the solution based on the information content of the inversion, it provides spatial information that is lost when aggregating to political or geographic regions, while ...

Emissions of ozone-depleting substances, including trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), have decreased since the mid-1980s in response to the Montreal Protocol. Recently, an unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions since 2013 was reported, with much of the global rise attributed to emissions from eastern China. Here we use high-frequency atmospheric mole fraction observations from Gosan, South Korea, and Hateruma, Japan, together with atmospheric chemical transport model simulations, to investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern China. We find that CFC-11 emissions returned to pre-2013 levels in 2019 (5.0 ± 1.0 Gg yr-1 30 in 2019 compared to 7.2 ± 1.5 Gg yr-1 for 2008 –2012, 1 s.d.), decreasing by 10 ± 3 Gg yr-1 31 since 2014 -2017. Furthermore, we find that in this region carbon tetrachloride and dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12) emissions, potentially associated with CFC-11 production, were higher than expected after 2013 and then declined one to two years prior to the CFC-11 emissions reduction. This suggests CFC-11 production in eastern China after the mandated global phase-out, and a subsequent decline in production during 2017-2018. We estimate that the CFC-11 bank in eastern China is up to 112 Gg larger in 2019 compared to pre-2013, most likely as a result of recent production. Nevertheless, it seems that any substantial delay in ozone layer recovery has been avoided, perhaps due to timely reporting, and subsequent action by industry and government in China.

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios - using the reduced-complexity climate-carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP con- centration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying ...

An increase of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year−1 of atmospheric methane is reported using 10 years of solar observations performed at 10 ground-based stations since 2005. These trend agree with a GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation that accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane. The GEOS-Chem simulation shows that anthropogenic emissions from coal mining and gas and oil transport and exploration have played a major role in the increase methane since 2005. ; W. Bader has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 704951, and from the University of Toronto through a Faculty of Arts & Science Postdoctoral Fellowship Award. E. Mahieu is a Research Associate with the F.R.S.–FNRS. The F.R.S.–FNRS further supported this work under Grant no. J.0093.15 and the Fédération Wallonie Bruxelles contributed to supporting observational activities. The Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry at the University of Wollongong involvement in this work is funded by Australian Research Council projects DP1601021598 and LE0668470.

National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009-2012 shows a drop of 35ĝ€¯%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79ĝ€¯% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008-2018) are on average 73 (62-83)ĝ€¯% of, or 4.3 ...

National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Download ; Carbamazepine (CBZ) causes life-threating T-cell-mediated hypersensitivity reactions, including serious cutaneous adverse reactions (SCARs) and drug-induced liver injury (CBZ-DILI). In order to evaluate shared or phenotype-specific genetic predisposing factors for CBZ hypersensitivity reactions, we performed a meta-analysis of two genomewide association studies (GWAS) on a total of 43 well-phenotyped Northern and Southern European CBZ-SCAR cases and 10,701 population controls and a GWAS on 12 CBZ-DILI cases and 8,438 ethnically matched population controls. HLA-A*31:01 was identified as the strongest genetic predisposing factor for both CBZ-SCAR (odds ratio (OR) = 8.0; 95% CI 4.10-15.80; P = 1.2 × 10-9 ) and CBZ-DILI (OR = 7.3; 95% CI 2.47-23.67; P = 0.0004) in European populations. The association with HLA-A*31:01 in patients with SCAR was mainly driven by hypersensitivity syndrome (OR = 12.9; P = 2.1 × 10-9 ) rather than by Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis cases, which showed an association with HLA-B*57:01. We also identified a novel risk locus mapping to ALK only for CBZ-SCAR cases, which needs replication in additional cohorts and functional evaluation. ; European Union (EU) European Union (EU) Instituto de Salud Carlos III Medical Research Council UK (MRC) United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases (NIAID) United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation Swedish Research Council MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science International Serious Adverse Events Consortium (iSAEC) National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Nottingham Digestive Diseases Biomedical Research ...

The Research Centers in Minority Institu­tions (RCMI) program was established by the US Congress to support the develop­ment of biomedical research infrastructure at minority-serving institutions granting doctoral degrees in the health professions or in a health-related science. RCMI institu­tions also conduct research on diseases that disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minorities (ie, African Americans/Blacks, American Indians and Alaska Natives, His­panics, Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders), those of low socioeconomic sta­tus, and rural persons. Quantitative metrics, including the numbers of doctoral science degrees granted to underrepresented stu­dents, NIH peer-reviewed research funding, peer-reviewed publications, and numbers of racial and ethnic minorities participat­ing in sponsored research, demonstrate that RCMI grantee institutions have made substantial progress toward the intent of the Congressional legislation, as well as the NIH/NIMHD-linked goals of addressing workforce diversity and health disparities. Despite this progress, nationally, many challenges remain, including persistent disparities in research and career develop­ment awards to minority investigators. The continuing underrepresentation of minority investigators in NIH-sponsored research across multiple disease areas is of concern, in the face of unrelenting national health inequities. With the collaborative network support by the RCMI Translational Research Network (RTRN), the RCMI community is uniquely positioned to address these chal­lenges through its community engagement and strategic partnerships with non-RCMI institutions. Funding agencies can play an important role by incentivizing such col­laborations, and incorporating metrics for research funding that address underrep­resented populations, workforce diversity and health equity.Ethn Dis. 2019;29(Suppl 1):135-144; doi:10.18865/ed.29.S1.135.