Directional trends in species composition over time can lead to a widespread overemphasis of year-to-year asynchrony
Questions. Compensatory dynamics are described as one of the main mechanisms that increase community stability, e.g., where decreases of some species on a year‐to‐year basis are offset by an increase in others. Deviations from perfect synchrony between species (asynchrony) have therefore been advocated as an important mechanism underlying biodiversity effects on stability. However, it is unclear to what extent existing measures of synchrony actually capture the signal of year‐to‐year species fluctuations in the presence of long‐term directional trends in both species abundance and composition (species directional trends hereafter). Such directional trends may lead to a misinterpretation of indices commonly used to reflect year‐to‐year synchrony. Methods. An approach based on three‐term local quadrat variance (T3) which assesses population variability in a three‐year moving window, was used to overcome species directional trend effects. This "detrending" approach was applied to common indices of synchrony across a worldwide collection of 77 temporal plant community datasets comprising almost 7,800 individual plots sampled for at least six years. Plots included were either maintained under constant "control" conditions over time or were subjected to different management or disturbance treatments. Results. Accounting for directional trends increased the detection of year‐to‐year synchronous patterns in all synchrony indices considered. Specifically, synchrony values increased significantly in ~40% of the datasets with the T3 detrending approach while in ~10% synchrony decreased. For the 38 studies with both control and manipulated conditions, the increase in synchrony values was stronger for longer time series, particularly following experimental manipulation. Conclusions. Species' long‐term directional trends can affect synchrony and stability measures potentially masking the ecological mechanism causing year‐to‐year fluctuations. As such, previous studies on community stability might have overemphasised the role of compensatory dynamics in real‐world ecosystems, and particularly in manipulative conditions, when not considering the possible overriding effects of long‐term directional trends. ; We thank multiple entities for the financial support necessary to obtain the different databases: the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant numbers DEB‐8114302, DEB‐8811884, DEB‐9411972, DEB‐0080382, DEB‐0620652, DEB‐1234162, DEB‐9707477, DEB‐0316402, DEB‐08‐16453, and DEB‐12‐56034, DEB‐0618210, the Nutrient Network (http://www.nutnet.org) experiment from the National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (NSF‐DEB‐1042132), the New Zealand National Vegetation Survey Databank, the Spanish MINECO (Project CGL2014‐53789‐R), the Madrid Regional Government (Projects REMEDINAL‐3 and REMEDINAL‐TE), the European Research Council Synergy grant 610028 (IMBALANCE‐P), the Institute on the Environment (DG‐0001‐13), the SOERE‐ACBB financed through French National Agency for Research (ANAEE‐F, ANR‐11‐INBS‐0001), the Estonian Research Council (IUT 20‐28, IUT 20‐29), Czech Science Foundation (GAČR 17‐05506S and 19‐28491X), the European Regional Development Fund (Centre of Excellence EcolChange), the German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) for a grant to the NABU Hamburg (management experiment Calamagrostis epigejos), and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research within the framework of the project BIOTA Southern Africa (promotion numbers 01LC0024, 01LC0024A and 01LC0624A2), Task 159 of SASSCAL (promotion number 01LG1201) and the Scottish Government's Rural and Environmental Science and Analytical Services division. Acknowledgement Data owned by NERC© Database Right/Copyright NERC. Further support was provided by the Jornada Basin Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) project, Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve and the University of Minnesota. We also thank the Lawes Agricultural Trust and Rothamsted Research for data from the e‐RA database. The Rothamsted Long‐term Experiments National Capability (LTE‐NCG) is supported by the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Grant BBS/E/C/000J0300) and the Lawes Agricultural Trust. ; Peer reviewed