Suchergebnisse

The New Political Economy1 is based on the postulate of homo politicus that Downs (1957) presents as the clone of homo oeconomicus, a rational agent mo- tivated by the maximisation of his material self-interest. Goodin and Roberts (1975) were the first to propose an alternative to the homo politicus postulate by introducing the notion of 'ethical voter' 2. The 'ethical voter' describes a rational agent who is not only motivated by the maximisation of his short term material self-interest but also by the promotion of what he considers as fair for the society as a whole. There have been so far only few attempts to model 'ethical voting'. Most of them liken 'ethical voting' to caring about the well-being of the worst-off when voting (see Snyder and Kramer (1988), Kranich (2001) and Galasso (2003)). Alesina and Angeletos (2005) constitute an exception. Following responsibility-based theories of justice, they assume that individuals share the conviction that one deserves the income on the basis of his skill and effort and that only luck creates unfair differences they are consequently willing to compensate. However, the 'responsibility cut' (Dworkin (1981)) used by Alesina and Angeletos (2005) lacks justification, should one consider the theoretical literature on fair redistribution or the empirical literature on individual opinions on distributive justice. I propose to analyze 'ethical voting' in a more comprehensive way. The thread of this work is a 'fair utility function'. More precisely, I specify in paper 1 a 'fair utility function' to model citizens' trade-off between their self-interest and some of their major concerns for fairness. Paper 2 and paper 3 rely on the 'fair utility function' to study voting behavior over the (re)distribution of economic surpluses in different contexts of democracy4. In paper 2, my coauthor and I compute the politico-economic equilibrium that emerges when citizens are endowed with the 'fair utility function'. We model the institutional setting of a typical Western democracy where political cleavages are mainly income-based. In paper 3, I estimate the 'fair utility function'. I base my estimation on survey data that I collected in an ethnically polarized democracy where political cleavages are mainly ethnic-based. Paper 1 investigates whether concerns for fairness influence the aggregate out- come in real life interactions so that economic analysis should complete the postulate of homo economicus with the postulate of homo ethicus. I conduct a three-step analysis addressing the following research questions: • Which are the main concerns for fairness that individuals are able to show? • Do these concerns for fairness influence the aggregate outcome in the eco- nomic field? • Do these concerns for fairness influence the aggregate outcome in the po- litical field? Based on experimental evidence, I identify three main concerns for fairness likely to influence individual behaviors besides self-interest: utilitarian altru- ism, 'Rawlsian' altruism and desert-sensitivity. Utilitarian altruism consists in maximizing the sum of all utilities. 'Rawlsian' altruism consists in maximizing the utility of the worst-off. Desert-sensitivity consists in weighting one's con- cerns for fairness towards others, should they be utilitarian altruistic concerns or 'Rawlsian' altruistic concerns, depending on these others' deservingness with respect to their responsibility characteristics. I find out that concerns for fairness have no impact on market aggregate out- comes, should I focus on markets involving complete contracts or on markets involving incomplete contracts. I provide evidence that concerns for fairness have a significant impact on po- litical aggregate outcomes. More particularly, concerns for fairness (utilitarian altruism, 'Rawlsian' altruism, and desert-sensitivity) seem to express through citizens' position on a liberalism/conservatism scale which ultimately impacts their voting behavior. However, evidence also shows that ethnic prejudice, an unambiguously unfair motivation, constitutes a serious challenger to individual concerns for fairness, even in the Western democratic context where political parties are officially divided along income-based, not ethnic-based, lines. My findings suggest that economic theory in general (and the New Political Economy in particular) should pay more attention to the modelling of ethical voting behaviors to improve its explanatory and predictive power. I propose a provisional 'fair utility function' to model citizens' trade-off between their self-interest and the three various concerns for fairness which are utilitarian altruism, 'Rawlsian' altruism and desert-sensitivity. • Which is the politico-economic equilibrium emerging in a society where individuals are endowed with the 'fair utility function'? We study a simple voting model where a unidimensional redistributive parame- ter is chosen by majority voting in a direct democracy where political cleavages are income-based. We allow for heterogeneities in productivities and preferences for consumption and leisure and incorporate the incentive effects of taxation. We show that in a society where altruistic preferences are desert-sensitive, (i) strictly lower levels of redistribution emerge in political equilibrium comparedto a society where altruistic preferences are not desert-sensitive and (ii) lower or equal levels of redistribution emerge in political equilibrium compared to a society where preferences for redistribution are purely egoistic. We then investigate the following research question: • Can our theoretical result help explain the differences between the Ameri- can and the European social contract? Using data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) 1992 dataset, we provide empirical evidence that: (i) preferences for redistribution are not purely egoistic, (ii) desert-sensitivity induces lower support for redistribution and (iii) differences in desert-sensitivity hold between both continents, inducing lower support for redistribution among Americans compared to Europeans. We see two apparent explanations helping to understand why preferences for re- distribution are more desert-sensitive among individuals in the US than among individuals in Europe (see Alesina et al. (2001) and Alesina and Glaeser (2004) for an extensive discussion). First, the myth of the US being the 'land of op- portunity' greatly entrenched its customs. Meanwhile, European perceptions are influenced by the historical (from medieval times till the nineteenth cen- tury) division of society into classes, where birth and nobility were the main determinants of wealth and success. Second, the American belief of undeserv- ingness of the poor may reflect racial prejudice against the black minority. Poor white voters might reduce their support for redistribution when they believe that poor black citizens also benefit from redistribution (see Luttmer (2001) for strong empirical evidence). Roemer et al. (2007) find out that marginal income taxes would have been much higher when racial prejudice would have been absent. They believe that racial prejudice is the major underlying factor explaining why in the US, while the past twenty years were characterized by a sharp rise in inequality, the effective marginal income taxes have fallen. • In an ethnically polarized country, does aversion towards inter-ethnic in- equity induce citizens to vote for a party promoting an equitable allocation of national resources among ethnic groups?5 or, in other words, Could ethical voting help reduce risks of conflict in ethnically polarized countries? Relying on data collected among students from Addis Ababa University, my answer is threefold. First, I show that aversion towards inter-ethnic inequity significantly lowers university students' temptation to vote for their ethnic party. This finding is encouraging. Under my initial assumption that the degree of ethical concerns of university students constitute an upper bound of the degree of ethical concerns of the average citizen, this finding indeed suggests that ethical concerns could also influence his voting behavior. In other words, nationwide civic education programmes could be a promising conflict-reducing strategy in ethnically po- larized countries. Finkel (2002, 2003) provides evidence that civic education programs have a significant impact on participants' 'political tolerance', while his concept of 'political tolerance' is close to our notion of 'aversion towards inter-ethnic inequity'. Second, I find out that, though significant, the relative impact of ethical concerns is very small in comparison to the impact of ethnic group loyalty, an important determinant of ethnic voting. This finding is discouraging since it suggests that the relative impact of ethical concerns will be even lower across a more representative sample of the Ethiopian population. In other words, the 'return' on nationwide civic education programmes in terms of switch from ethnic voting to ethical voting is expected to be low. Third, I analyse the sociodemographic determinants of university students' aver- sion towards inter-ethnic inequity and ethnic group loyalty. I provide confirma- tion that some specific sociodemographic characteristics significantly (i) increase the degree of aversion towards inter-ethnic inequity and (ii) lower ethnic group loyalty. Those characteristics have in common that they reduce the 'psycholog- ical' distance between ethnic groups, like living in a cosmopolitan city and hav- ing parents belonging to different ethnic groups (see Atchade and Wantchekon (2006) for a first evidence). Besides, I find that ethnic group loyalty is par- ticularly strong among ethnic groups experiencing a severe level of grievance. Finally, evidence shows that aversion towards inter-ethnic inequity depends pos- itively on the income of the household in which the respondent grew up in. ; La politique de la Nouvelle Economy1 est basée sur le postulat de l'homo politicus qui Downs (1957) présente comme le clone de l'homo oeconomicus, un agent rationnel mo- tivé par la maximisation de son intérêt matériel. Goodin et Roberts (1975) ont été les premiers à proposer une alternative à l'homo politicus postulat en introduisant la notion de «électeur éthique» 2. Le «éthiques des électeurs »désigne un agent rationnel qui n'est pas seulement motivé par la maximisation de son matériel à court terme l'intérêt mais aussi par la promotion de ce qu'il considère comme équitable pour la société dans son ensemble. Il ya eu jusqu'ici que peu de tentatives pour le modèle «vote éthique». La plupart d'entre eux vote éthiques assimiler »pour veiller au bien-être des plus démunis au moment de voter (Voir Snyder et Kramer (1988), Kranich (2001) et Galasso (2003)). Alesina et Angeletos (2005) constituent une exception. À la suite de la responsabilité fondée sur théories de la justice, ils supposent que les individus partagent la conviction que l'on mérite le revenu, sur la base de ses compétences et de l'effort et que la chance ne crée différences injustes, ils sont donc prêts à compenser. Toutefois, le «Couper la responsabilité» (Dworkin (1981)) utilisé par Alesina et Angeletos (2005) n'a pas justification, doit-on considérer la littérature théorique sur la redistribution équitable ou la littérature empirique sur les opinions individuelles sur la justice distributive. Je me propose d'analyser «vote éthique» d'une manière plus globale. Le fil de ce travail est une «fonction d'utilité équitable». Plus précisément, je précise en papier 1 une «fonction d'utilité équitable» au modèle des citoyens compromis entre leur intérêt personnel et certaines de leurs préoccupations majeures pour l'équité. Livre 2 et document 3 compter sur la «fonction d'utilité équitable» pour étudier le comportement des électeurs au cours de la (re) distribution des excédents économiques dans différents contextes de democracy4. Dans le document 2, mon coauteur et je calculer l'équilibre politico-économique qui émerge quand les citoyens sont dotés de la «fonction d'utilité équitable». Nous modélisons les institutionnels création d'une démocratie occidentale typique où les clivages politiques sont principalement fondée sur le revenu. Dans le document 3, je estimer la «fonction d'utilité équitable». Je me base estimation des données d'enquête que j'ai pu recueillir dans une démocratie ethniquement polarisés où les clivages politiques sont principalement fondées sur l'ethnie. Document 1 cherche à savoir si les préoccupations d'équité pour l'influence sur l'ensemble- viennent dans les interactions réelles de sorte que l'analyse économique devrait compléter le postulat de l'homo economicus avec le postulat de l'homo ETHICUS. -Je effectuer une analyse en trois étapes l'étude des questions suivantes: • Quelles sont les principales préoccupations d'équité que les individus sont en mesure de spectacle? • Ne ces préoccupations pour l'équité influence le résultat global de l'éco- domaine économique? • Ne ces préoccupations pour l'équité influence le résultat global de la po- litical domaine? Sur la base de données expérimentales, je identifier trois principales préoccupations pour l'équité susceptibles d'influencer les comportements individuels en plus de l'intérêt: utilitaire ALTRU- ISM, «l'altruisme rawlsienne et désert sensibilité. l'altruisme utilitariste consiste à maximiser la somme de tous les services publics. «Altruisme rawlsienne» consiste à maximiser l'utilité des plus démunis. Desert sensibilité consiste en un coefficient de con- préoccupations d'équité envers les autres, devraient-ils être utilitaires préoccupations altruistes ou «préoccupations altruistes rawlsienne», selon le caractère méritoire de ces autres avec fonction de leurs caractéristiques responsabilité. Je trouve que les préoccupations d'équité n'ont pas d'impact sur le marché global hors vient, dois-je mettre l'accent sur les marchés portant sur des contrats complets ou sur les marchés impliquant des contrats incomplets. Je fournis des éléments de preuve que les préoccupations d'équité ont un impact significatif sur le Po- litical résultats globaux. Plus particulièrement, les préoccupations d'équité (utilitaires l'altruisme, «l'altruisme rawlsienne», et le désert de sensibilité) semblent exprimer à travers citoyens position sur une échelle de libéralisme conservatisme qui a un impact à terme leur comportement de vote. Toutefois, la preuve montre également que les préjugés ethniques, une ambiguïté déloyale motivation, constitue un concurrent sérieux aux préoccupations individuelles pour l'équité, même dans le contexte occidental de démocratie où les partis politiques sont officiellement répartis le long de revenus, pas à base ethnique, des lignes. Mes résultats suggèrent que la théorie économique en général (et les nouveaux enjeux politiques Économie en particulier) devrait accorder plus d'attention à la modélisation de l'éthique les comportements de vote pour améliorer sa capacité explicative et prédictive. Je propose à titre provisoire «fonction d'utilité équitable» au modèle des citoyens compromis entre leurs l'intérêt et les trois différentes préoccupations d'équité qui sont utilitaires l'altruisme, «l'altruisme rawlsienne et désert sensibilité. • Quel est l'équilibre politico-économique émergent dans une société où les individus sont dotés de la «fonction d'utilité équitable»? Nous étudions un modèle simple de vote où une redistribution unidimensionnelle para- ter est choisi par vote à la majorité dans une démocratie directe où les clivages politiques sont fondées sur le revenu. Nous tenons compte de l'hétérogénéité dans les préférences et les productivités à la consommation et de loisirs et d'intégrer les effets incitatifs de la fiscalité. Nous montrons que dans une société où les préférences altruistes sont désertiques sensibles, (i) strictement niveaux inférieurs de la redistribution émerger dans comparedto équilibre politique d'une société où les préférences ne sont pas altruistes désert sensibles et (ii) inférieur à ou des niveaux équivalents de redistribution émerger dans l'équilibre politique par rapport à un société où les préférences pour la redistribution sont purement égoïstes. Nous avons ensuite étudier la question de recherche suivante: • Peut notre résultat théorique aider à expliquer les différences entre les Améri- peut et du contrat social européen? En utilisant les données de l'International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) 1992 dataset, nous fournir des preuves empiriques que: (i) les préférences pour la redistribution ne sont pas purement égoïste, (ii) du désert sensibilité induit support inférieur pour la redistribution et (iii) les différences dans le désert sensibilité tenir entre les deux continents, induisant support inférieur pour la redistribution entre les Américains contre les Européens. Nous voir deux explications apparentes aide à comprendre pourquoi les préférences pour les re- de distribution sont plus sensibles du désert entre les individus aux États-Unis que chez personnes en Europe (voir Alesina et al. (2001) et Alesina et Glaeser (2004) pour une discussion approfondie). Tout d'abord, le mythe des Etats-Unis étant le "pays de l'op- portunity «fortement enracinées ses coutumes. Pendant ce temps, les perceptions européennes sont influencés par les historiques (de l'époque médiévale jusqu'à la dix-neuvième de la CEN- siècle), une division de la société en classes, où la naissance et la noblesse ont été les principaux déterminants de la richesse et de succès. Deuxièmement, la croyance américaine de undeserv- disponibilité manifestée des pauvres peuvent refléter les préjugés raciaux contre la minorité noire. Pauvres électeurs blancs pourraient réduire leur soutien à la redistribution quand ils croient que les pauvres citoyens noirs aussi profiter de la redistribution (voir Luttmer (2001) pour de solides preuves empiriques). Roemer et al. (2007) constatent que marginal impôt sur le revenu aurait été beaucoup plus élevé lorsque les préjugés raciaux aurait été absent. Ils croient que les préjugés raciaux est le principal facteur qui sous-tendent expliquant pourquoi les États-Unis, tandis que les vingt dernières années ont été caractérisées par une forte hausse des inégalités, les impôts en vigueur du revenu marginal ont chuté. • Dans un pays ethniquement polarisés, ne aversion envers inter-ethniques en l'équité amener les citoyens à voter pour un parti de promouvoir une répartition équitable des ressources nationales entre les groupes ethniques? 5 ou, en d'autres termes, Pourriez vote éthiques aider à réduire les risques de conflit dans des environnements ethniquement polarisés pays? S'appuyant sur des données recueillies auprès des étudiants de l'Université d'Addis-Abeba, mon réponse est triple. Tout d'abord, je montre que l'aversion envers l'inégalité inter-ethniques réduit considérablement la tentation des étudiants universitaires à voter pour leur parti ethnique. Cette constatation est encourageant. Sous mon hypothèse de départ que le degré de préoccupations éthiques des étudiants constituent une limite supérieure du degré de préoccupations d'ordre éthique du citoyen moyen, cette constatation suggère en effet que les préoccupations éthiques pourraient également influer sur son comportement de vote. En d'autres termes, l'éducation civique à l'échelle nationale programmes pourraient être une stratégie prometteuse de réduction des conflits dans des environnements ethniquement po- tif pays. Finkel (2002, 2003) fournit la preuve que l'éducation civique programmes ont un impact significatif sur la tolérance des participants «politique», tandis que son concept de «tolérance politique» est proche de notre notion de «aversion envers l'inégalité inter-ethnique ». Deuxièmement, je trouve que, bien que significative, l'impact relatif des préoccupations d'ordre éthique est très faible par rapport à l'impact de la loyauté envers le groupe ethnique, un important facteur déterminant du vote ethnique. Ce résultat est décourageant, car elle suggère que l'impact relatif des préoccupations d'ordre éthique sera encore plus faible sur une plus échantillon représentatif de la population éthiopienne. En d'autres termes, le «retour» sur les programmes d'éducation civique à l'échelle nationale en termes de passage du vote ethnique au vote à l'éthique devrait être faible. Troisièmement, je analyser les déterminants socio-démographiques des étudiants de l'Université moyenne- sion vers l'inégalité inter-ethnique et loyauté envers le groupe ethnique. Je fournis des confir- tion que certaines caractéristiques socio-démographiques spécifiques de façon significative (i) augmenter le degré d'aversion pour l'inégalité inter-ethnique et (ii) inférieur à un groupe ethnique fidélité. Ces caractéristiques ont en commun qu'elles réduisent la «psycholo- iCal «distance entre les groupes ethniques, comme vivre dans une ville cosmopolite et HAV- ING parents appartenant à différents groupes ethniques (voir Atchade et Wantchekon (2006) pour une première preuve). D'ailleurs, je trouve que la fidélité groupe ethnique est par- particulièrement forte parmi les groupes ethniques connaît un niveau sévère de grief. Enfin, il est prouvé que l'aversion envers l'inégalité inter-ethnique dépend pos- itively sur le revenu du ménage dans lequel le répondant a grandi po

Water quality is a requirement of global markets, went to a trade pattern required by the development of quality criteria that value the man as a consumer par excellence, is one of the most sensitive issues in the provision of services sanitation. Poor water quality can have devastating effects on the population, which is why it is necessary to offer quality drinking water service to prevent any problems. Similarly, the professionals responsible for this task should be aware of existing legislation on water quality and its implementation, as well as techniques and procedures of treatment and control of water quality is subject to continuous improvement, which should be properly disseminated among the professionals responsible for this task. The commitment to improve the knowledge base on all aspects involving maintaining adequate levels of coverage and quality of drinking water service provided by the company EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA For that reason, the object of our research is aimed at studying "INFLUENCE OF THE COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF DRINKING WATER SERVICE COMPANY THAT OFFERS EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA The Company Municipal Potable Water Supply and Sewerage of San Martín, is a private law firm, subject to the laws of public internal control. Its administrative, technical and economic is subject to public control laws and the rules of sanitation. His goal is to provide water service to optimal levels of efficiency and safety to each and every one of the residents who live in their jurisdiction. This framed by the law of state enterprises, its regulations approved by DS N ° 23 853 Organic Law of Municipalities, General Corporation Law, Act No. 26 338 Sanitation Act and the regulations adopted to by DS No. 09-95-PRE, by the provisions of the Statute of the Company, as amended on December 28, 1999. EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA has a coverage of potable water household connections active to December 2009, according to the document management indicators 31.304 house connections and sewerage coverage of 26 531 for an estimated urban population of 169.339 inhabitants. Potable water production to that date was 1,091,388.00 m3 and Continuity of service 11.31 hours / day. There are several principles to be followed to carry out customer service, they can provide the vision that has about the most important aspect of the service, the customer. Make quality a habit and a framework, set specifications for the products and services in agreement with all staff and with customers and suppliers, anticipate and consistently meet customer needs, give freedom of action at all employees who have dealings with customers, ie authority to address their complaints, customers always expect the fulfillment of his word. Promise less, do more, to show respect for people and be attentive to them, explicitly acknowledge any effort of implementing a quality culture. Paying your employees as if they were his partners (incentives). Do as the Japanese. In other words, investigate who are the best and how they do things, to usurp their systems, then improve them. Quality service must meet the following characteristics: fulfill your goals. Serve for what it was designed, addressing the needs, provide results. The objective is to determine the level of influence of the coverage and quality of drinking water service provided by the company EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA to: • Know the procedure that follows the company for potable water coverage provided EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA • Develop strategies to quality and service coverage of drinking water provided by the company EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA to meet user requirements. • Suggest measures to reduce water loss in EMAPA SAN MARTIN SA It will use the following research methods: • Inductive Method. - This is the method of obtaining knowledge that leads from the particular to the general, the facts on the causes and the discovery of the laws. Such a method may be able to establish general laws from empirical facts. • Deductive Method. - Acquiring expertise of the company EMAPA through nationwide general situations. According to their application Application . It is concerned with collecting information from reality to enrich the scientific theoretical knowledge. We will obtain new knowledge about the quality of coverage and water service. According to the level of depth: Descriptive Research. As its name suggests describes situations and facts of how certain phenomena are manifested. It specifies the main characteristics of individuals or groups, phenomena that are tested. In this type of research is measured precisely as possible. It requires knowledge of the study area. Includes the account of the reality in terms of coverage of drinking water Company in the region of San Martín. The universe of the population is 34,000 users of the Municipal Water and Sewer and the sample was obtained according to the application of the formula of the cluster with the following results will be implemented structured survey to Tarapoto 200 120 Bellavista Lamas 20 Saposoa 20 and San José de Sisa 20 respectively. ; La calidad del agua es una exigencia de los mercados globales, pasó hacer una pauta comercial obligada junto a la evolución de los criterios de calidad que valorizan al hombre como consumidor por excelencia; es uno de los aspectos más sensibles en la prestación de los servicios de saneamiento. Una mala calidad del agua puede tener efectos devastadores sobre la población, razón por la cual es necesario ofertar con calidad el servicio de agua potable a fin de prevenir cualquier problema. Del mismo modo, los profesionales responsables de esta tarea deben conocer la normativa vigente sobre la calidad del agua y su aplicación, además los procedimientos y técnicas del tratamiento y control de la calidad de agua, esta sujeto a constantes mejoras, las cuales deben ser adecuadamente difundidas entre los profesionales responsables de esta tarea. Por esa razón, el objeto de nuestra investigación se orienta a estudiar "INFLUENCIA DE LA CALIDAD EN LA COBERTURA Y EL SERVICIO DE AGUA POTABLE QUE BRINDA LA EMPRESA EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A." La Empresa Municipal del Servicio de Agua Potable y alcantarillado de San Martín, es una empresa de derecho privado, sujeta a las leyes de control público interno. Su autonomía administrativa, técnica y económica esta sujeta a las leyes de control público y a las normas de saneamiento. Su objetivo es brindar un servicio de agua potable en niveles óptimos de eficiencia y salubridad a todos y cada uno de los pobladores que habitan en su jurisdicción. Esta enmarcada en la ley de la actividad empresarial del Estado, su reglamento aprobado por D.S. N° 23853 Ley Orgánica de Municipalidades, Ley general de Sociedades, Ley N° 26338 Ley General de Saneamiento y su reglamento aprobada a por D.S. N° 09-95-PRE, por las disposiciones del Estatuto de la Empresa, modificado el 28 de diciembre de 1999. EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A. tiene una cobertura de conexiones domiciliarias de agua potable activas a Diciembre del 2009, según el documento de indicadores de gestión de 31,304 conexiones domiciliarias y una cobertura de alcantarillado del 26.531 para una población urbana estimada de 169,339 habitantes. La producción de agua potable a esa fecha fue de 1.091.388,00 m3 y La continuidad de servicio de 11.31 hora/día. Existen diversos principios que se deben seguir para llevar a cabo el servicio al cliente, estos pueden facilitar la visión que se tiene acerca del aspecto más importante del servicio, el cliente. Hacer de la calidad un hábito y un marco de referencia, establecer las especificaciones de los productos y servicios de común acuerdo con todo el personal y con los clientes y proveedores, anticipar y satisfacer consistentemente las necesidades de los clientes, dar libertad de acción a todos los empleados que tengan trato con los clientes, es decir autoridad para atender sus quejas, Los clientes siempre esperan el cumplimiento de su palabra. Prometer menos, dar más, mostrar respeto por las personas y ser atentos con ellas, reconocer en forma explícita todo esfuerzo de implantación de una cultura de calidad. Remunerar a sus empleados como si fueran sus socios (incentivos). Hacer como los japoneses. Es decir, investigar quiénes son los mejores y cómo hacen las cosas, para apropiarse de sus sistemas, para después mejorarlos. Un servicio de calidad debe cumplir con las siguientes características: cumplir los objetivos. Servir para lo que se diseñó, solucionar las necesidades, proporcionar resultados. El objetivo es, determinar el nivel de influencia de la calidad en la cobertura y el servicio del agua potable que brinda la empresa EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A. para: •Conocer el procedimiento que sigue la empresa para la Cobertura de agua potable que brinda EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A. •Diseñar estrategias de calidad en la cobertura y el servicio del agua potable que brinda la empresa EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A para satisfacer exigencias de los usuarios. •Sugerir medidas para la reducción de perdida de agua potable en EMAPA SAN MARTÍN S.A. Se utilizará los siguientes métodos de investigación: •Método Inductivo.- Es el método de obtención de conocimientos que conduce de lo particular a lo general, de los hechos a las causas y al descubrimiento de las leyes. Este tipo de método puede llegar a establecer leyes generales a partir de hechos empíricos. •Método Deductivo.- Adquirir conocimientos particulares de la Empresa de EMAPA a través de situaciones generales a nivel nacional. De acuerdo a su aplicación Investigación Aplicada. Se preocupa de recoger información de la realidad Obtendremos conocimientos nuevos sobre la calidad en la cobertura y servicio de agua potable. De acuerdo al nivel de profundidad: Investigación Descriptiva. Como su nombre lo indica se describe situaciones y hechos de cómo se manifiestan determinados fenómenos. Se especifica las características más importantes de personas o grupos, fenómenos que sean sometidos a análisis. En este tipo de investigación se mide con mayor precisión posible. Requiere conocimientos del área de estudio. Comprende la narración de la realidad en cuanto a la cobertura de la empresa de agua potable de la Región de San Martín. El universo de la población es de 34.000 usuarios de la Empresa Municipal de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado y la muestra se obtuvo de acuerdo a la aplicación de la fórmula del conglomerado obteniendo los siguientes resultados que se aplicará la encuesta estructurada, para Tarapoto 200 Lamas 120 Bellavista 20, Saposoa 20 y San José de Sisa 20 respectivamente. ; Tesis

The article analyses the state of the most popular and least popular professions and specialties in Ukraine. It's found that there are no specialties in the field of land management among them. It is also noted that at the legislative level the specialties "Land Management and Cadastre" and "Evaluation of land and real estate" were replaced by the specialty "Geodesy and land management", which belongs to the field of knowledge "Architecture and construction" (technical sciences). It is substantiated that the profession of land manager should relate to the field of knowledge of "Social and behavioural sciences". It's based on the provisions of the Law "On Land Management" and the study of world experience of the essence of the concepts of land management and land management planning (both have technical, socio-economic, legal and environmental focus).It is proved that the profession of land manager needs to be reprofiled. In this regard, there is a need to identify new specialties and specializations and add them into the state classifier DK 003: 2010. It's important to expand the training of specialists within: 1) specialty 193 "Geodesy and land management" specializations "Land Management and Land Use Administration" and "Cadastral Registrar"; 2) specialty 101 "Ecology" specialization "Land management and ecologization of landuse", 3) specialty 051 "Economics" specialization "Economics of land management and land use". It is proposed to add them to the classifier.Keywords. Profession "land manager", labour market, perspective specialties and specializations in land management, new qualifications. Formulation of the problem. The development of society at all times was associated with the arrangement of lands, which today remains the main means for the existence of mankind and a source of social wealth. The need to establish the limits disturb landowners from ancient times. This function is performed by land surveyors. When the first representatives of this profession appeared, it is certainly not known. But the land surveyor is now a profession demanded both in the village and in the city. In our country, the profession of land surveyor always respects honour because it is devoted to the invaluable treasures of Ukraine - land, which has always attached special significance.According to the research conducted in Ukraine, soon, the 10 most demanded professions include: programmers (C++, Java), food industry technologists, construction engineers, architects, designers of offices and interiors, personnel managers, recruiters, energy engineers, journalists, technologists of light industry products, financiers (specialization "banking") [1]. In addition, prospective include: hotel business managers, accountants, auditors, lawyers, marketers.According to the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, according to the results of the 2017 admission, the most popular specialties among the entrants for the Bachelor in Ukraine were Philology, Law, and Management. 85 thousand, 74 thousand and 59 thousand applications have been filed for the stated above specialties respectively. In addition, among the leaders are "Medicine", "Computer Science", "Tourism", "Secondary Education", "Psychology", "Economics". These specialties were desirable to enter by 40 to 46 thousand of entrants. The last step in the TOP-10 was "Software Engineering" with the result of 33 thousand applications (Fig. 1) [9]. Despite the stated above facts, it has been revealed that such specialties as "Law", "Management", "Tourism" and "Economics" remain among the most popular among entrants even though they are not in demand in the labour market. At the same time, the high levels in the ranking are occupied by important for the economy specialties, such as "Computer Science" and "Software Engineering". The least popular specialties are (fig. 2) "Theology" (185 applications excluding spiritual higher educational institutions) and "Hydropower" (193 applications for entry).However, specialties for the preparation of a specialist in land management are absent among the most and least popular. Therefore, with a caution we have to perceive the situation.The list of required occupations in the labour market is changing. Focus magazine has ranked the professions that will be promising in 5-10 years [10]. Before allocating the most promising specialties, the publication together with experts identified the areas of the economy that will actively develop in the near future. So, at first there was a list of 40 spheres of the economy, which, according to Focus, will successfully develop in the next 5-10 years. Experts evaluated the prospects for the development of these industries on a 10-point scale, giving each sector a mark from 1 to 10 points. At the same time, each expert could add to the list the industry that was not among the 40 listed, but whose potential he considers rather large.According to the obtained data, the rating of 15 most promising industries has been designed, and include: information technologies, telecommunications and communications, agriculture, pharmaceutical production and pharmacy business, banking, frying and processing industry, transport services, financial services, legal services, household services, metallurgy, alcohol production, energy, livestock, utilities.So, the 20 most promising professions of the next decade will be the following: the seller, the IT specialist, the automation engineer, the marketer, the municipal services engineer, the aeroengineer, the technologist in the production and processing of food products, the technologist of consumer services, logistics, the lawyer (economic and land law), power engineer veterinarian, pharmacologist, financier, communication engineer, practical psychologist, geneticist, biochemist, robotic technician, nanoengineer.In addition, agrarian countries are actively developing organic and farm farming. This will require the involvement of a large number of employees who are able to work on the ground - and thus, forms a serious niche. In general, the labour market trends in the coming years can be reduced to nine main directions [5]: engineers, IT specialists, nanotechnology specialists, marketers, service providers, logistics, environmentalists, chemists, and physicians.The Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated December 30, 2015, No. 1187, approved new Licensing conditions for the conduct of educational activities [7] concerning the further conduct of educational and scientific work in educational institutions. By the order of the Ministry of Education and Science dated November 6, 2015, No. 1151 "On the peculiarities of the introduction of the list of branches of knowledge and specialties [6], which are the training of applicants for higher education, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine from April 29, 2015, No. 266" [8] approved Table of correspondence List of directions for training of specialists in higher educational establishments for the educational-qualifying level of bachelor (List 1), List of specialties, which was carried out training of specialists in higher education institutions for educational and qualification levels of a specialist and a master's degree (List 2).In the stated above Resolution, it is defined that instead of the specialties "Land Management and Cadastre" and "Land and Real Estate Valuation" – the specialty "Geodesy and Land Management" is established. The latter belongs to the field of knowledge "Architecture and Construction", which belongs to the technical sciences.At the same time, the Law of Ukraine "On Land Management" stipulates that land management is a set of socio-economic and environmental measures aimed at regulating land relations and rational organization of the territory of administrative-territorial units, economic entities carried out under the influence of social and productive relations and development of productive forces [2]. The same law (Article 1) stipulates that activities in the field of land management are the scientific, technical, production and management activities of state authorities, local governments, legal entities and individuals, which is carried out under land management. Land-use documentation (land management documentation) is the text and graphic materials approved in accordance with the established procedure, which regulate the use and protection of lands of state, communal and private property, as well as survey and land survey materials, author's supervision of project implementation, etc. Measures on land management – provided by documentation on land management on the rational use and protection of land, the formation and organization of the territory of the object of land management, taking into account their purpose, restrictions on the use and restrictions (encumbrances) on the rights of other persons (land servitudes), preservation and increase of fertility soils.This is evidence that the profession of land surveyor is more likely to belong to the field of knowledge of "Social and behavioural sciences" than to "Architecture and construction". Architecture (Greek αρχιτεκτονικη - construction) is both a science and the art of designing buildings, as well as a system of buildings and structures that form a spatial environment for the lives and activities of people in accordance with the laws of beauty. Land management, as stated in the Law of Ukraine "On Land Management" – a set of socio-economic and environmental measures aimed at regulating land relations and rational organization of the territory of administrative-territorial entities and economic entities on the ground.As the research of A.M. Tretiak and V.M. Tretiak shows, the concept and essence of land management has both a technical direction and socio-economic, legal and environmental.Land managers have worked and work in the structural subdivisions of the State Committee for Land Resources of Ukraine, the State Land Agency of Ukraine and the State Audit Office of Ukraine, state authorities and local self-government bodies, and ministries (where there are departments of land resources); in public and private design and valuation companies, real estate firms, agroholdings, agricultural enterprises; territorial communities, scientific institutions, institutions of legal direction. civic organizations.The land manager learns not only his professional knowledge, but also legal and natural sciences. For a profession it is necessary to have mathematical abilities, engineering approach, spatial imagination, ability to understand the legislation. The profession is extremely interesting and creative, which requires the ability to make informed decisions, communicate with people, requires care, clarity and responsibility. To become a successful specialist in this field, you need to be persistent, self-confident, active, have a well-developed intuition and logical thinking.According to the classification of professions, the professional activity of the land manager relates to professions such as "human-nature". To date, the land manager must have a higher education in the field of "Architecture and Construction" from the specialty "Geodesy and Land Management", according to the educational qualification level: a junior specialist, a bachelor's or a master's degree.Currently, land managers use modern equipment in their work: electronic instruments; new technologies of geographic information systems. Significant problems arise when making managerial decisions due to the imperfection of the regulatory framework - when three different land managers can have three different views on the same issue. At the same time, for professionals it is extremely important to come to a joint decision. But how can the problems of legislation be explained to an ordinary peasant? It's a shame when you can not help a person in solving his question, and even more - when you do not know how to explain the impossibility of solving a particular problem. The disadvantage of the profession is also that there is little free time for personal life, family and wage mismatch in modern times. The advantages include: work is interesting, lots of communication, new knowledge in land law, and more.At the same time, we consider it necessary to stay on the proposals of A. Martyn outlined in the scientific paper "Directions of adaptation of the content of land management education to the needs of the national and world economy" [3], where he publishes "bad news" for land management education – whether we are ready for them? He states: "Most of our graduates will not develop landuse documentation at all; the number of jobs in the industry is quite limited; the overwhelming part of the "modern" Ukrainian land management is a terrible mix of fairly archaic rules, a crazy bureaucracy and meaningless rituals, in order to master the development of primitive land management documentation, it takes 2-3 weeks of practical training, but not 5 years at the university, and a significant part of cadastral registrar are lawyers.Some of these reservations agreeable. Therefore, his thoughts emphasize once again the need for serious changes in the training of land management specialists.Thus, all of the above stipulates the need for changes in the classification of occupations DK 003: 2010 and the definition of new specialties and specialization training of land management specialists.In our opinion, it is expedient to extend the training of specialists in land surveying in the following areas: 1) specialty 193 "Geodesy and land management" of the specializations "Land Management and Land Use Administration" and "Cadastral Registrar"; 2) specialty 101 "Ecology" specialization "Land management and ecologization of land use"; 3) specialty 051 "Economics" specialization "Economics of land management and land use".At the same time, we consider it expedient to add the following qualifications to the classifier of professions DK 003: 2010: in section 8 "Main specialists – heads of scientific research units and subdivisions on scientific and technical preparation of production and other managers" – Chief land surveyor; in section 14 "Managers of enterprises, institutions, organizations and their subdivisions" – Manager of land management, Manager in the field of operations with land, Manager in the field of research in the land market; in section 25 "Agronomists, hydraulic engineering, forest managers and professionals of related professions" – Land manager; in section 33 "Assistant veterinarians, junior specialists in agronomy, forestry, water management and nature conservation" – Land Resources Inspector; in section 34 "Other technical specialists in the field of management" – State Inspector for the use and protection of land; in section 249 "Professionals not included in other classification groups". Land manager-ecologist, Land manager-designer.Conclusions.Summing up, we note that the assignment of the specialty "Geodesy and land management" to the field of knowledge "Architecture and Construction" (engineering science) does not comply with the provisions of the Law "On Land Management", the study of world experience of the essence of the concepts of land management, which determined that they are inherent in technical, as well as socio-economic, legal and environmental trends. In this connection it is proved that the profession of land manager belongs to the field of knowledge of "Social and behavioral sciences".In view of this, the need for re-engineering the directions of land management training is urgent. Therefore, we must work ahead and make changes to the classification of professions DK 003: 2010 regarding the definition of new specialties and specialization training of specialists in land management. We consider it expedient to expand the training of specialists within: 1) specialty 193 "Geodesy and land management" of the specialties "Land Management and Land Use Administration" and "Cadastral Registrar"; 2) specialty 101 "Ecology" specialization "Land management and ecologization of land use"; 3) specialty 051 "Economics" specialization "Economics of land management and land use" (qualification "Land Management Manager"). It is proposed to make changes to the list of qualifications. ; У пропонованій статті проаналізовано стан найзатребуваніших і найменш популярних професій, спеціальностей в Україні та виявлено, що спеціальності для підготовки фахівців землевпорядного профілю серед них відсутні. Також відзначено, що на законодавчому рівні спеціальності «Землеустрій та кадастр», «Оцінка землі та нерухомого майна» з підготовки зазначених фахівців замінено на спеціальність «Геодезія та землеустрій», яку віднесено до галузі знань «Архітектура та будівництво» (технічні науки). Обґрунтовано, що професія землевпорядника має відноситись до галузі знань «Соціальних та поведінкових наук», підставою чого слугували положення ЗУ «Про землеустрій» та дослідження світового досвіду сутності понять землеустрою і землевпорядкування (мають як технічне, так і соціально-економічне, правове й екологічне спрямування). Доведено, що професія землевпорядника потребує перепрофілювання. У цьому зв'язку існує необхідність у визначенні нових спеціальностей і спеціалізацій та внесенні їх до класифікатора професій ДК 003:2010. Вказано на доцільність розширення підготовки фахівців в межах: 1) спеціальності 193 «Геодезія та землеустрій» спеціалізацій «Землеустрій та адміністрування землекористування» і «Кадастровий реєстратор»; 2) спеціальності 101 «Екологія» спеціалізації «Землевпорядкування та екологізація землекористування», 3) спеціальності 051 «Економіка» спеціалізації «Економіка землевпорядкування та землекористування». Запропоновано внести до класифікатора й перелік нових кваліфікацій.Ключові слова. Професія «землевпорядник», ринок праці, перспективні спеціальності та спеціалізації у сфері землевпорядкування,нові кваліфікації.

Marx has a threefold objective in "On the Jewish Question": to respond to Bruno Bauer's views on the same issue; to give us his own standing on the matter of the political emancipation of Jewish populations in Germany and the rest of Europe, while at the same time defining what political emancipation means for each citizen, no matter the religion, in a modern State; and lastly, to show us how political emancipation is not enough and how actual freedom (political plus social) is accessible to all once a new, final and imperative kind of emancipation is obtained: human emancipation. This paper will be divided into two parts: the first one will try to briefly review and explain Marx's text. Particular attention will be given to the differentiation between political and human emancipation and its implications. In this section, Marx's views on Judaism will be clarified by analyzing them on their proper socio-historical context. In the second one, an interesting and, hopefully, appropriate exercise will be put into consideration: taking into account Marx's concerns regarding the possibility of inclusion of a religious minority into the public spheres of a secular State, the Jewish question of 19th century's Europe will be altered into the Muslim question of 21st century's Europe. According to Yoav Peled the main difference between how Bauer and Marx confront the issue of Jewish emancipation is that the former one considers the problem as a theological one, while the latter does it as a sociological one (1). Bauer affirms that not only the Jews are longing for political emancipation, meaning being recognized by the State as equal citizens; but also the rest of the Gentile population is awaiting such recognition. The State cannot emancipate Jews if it still has not emancipated the rest. The Jewry cannot obtain full citizenship if there are no citizens. In order to attain political emancipation the State has to become a secular one, not to recognize any religion as its official one and to extend freedom of religion to all of its citizens. Religious freedom would require religion's removal from the public sphere and its "ostracism" into a private creed. This privatization of religion would eventually abolish it. Nevertheless, Bauer does not consider the Jews capable of becoming free because he does not consider Judaism able to become a private creed. Bauer characterizes Judaism as a religion of law not as, like Christianity, areligion of faith. Being a religion based on actions and not on beliefs would completely be opposed to freedom of religion, to its own removal from the public sphere. Judaism could not become free because there is a chance that its laws would contradict the laws of the State. Marx, instead, affirms that Jews (and Christians), in order to be really emancipated do not have to abandon Judaism in a theological way, but have to do it in a sociological manner. Political emancipation as stated by Bauer is not the final possible form of emancipation, but it is the last possible form of emancipation within the framework of the prevailing social order. For example, according to Marx the citizens of the United States of America, which at the time was the best case of a modern secular State, still practiced, and needed to practice, their religious beliefs as private creeds. Then, Bauer was wrong; religion survived the test and did not disappear after political emancipation. As reported by Marx this happened because when religion is expulsed from the sphere of public law to that of private law, religion becomes the spirit of civil society and the essence of differentiation which leads to, and presupposes, inequality. Political emancipation divides the human being into two antagonistic spheres: the individual, who is egoistic by nature and based in inequality and corresponds to civil society; and the citizen, who is based in common solidarity and equality and complements with the State. This separation can only be overcome by human emancipation. Human emancipation is the final and real kind of reachable and desired emancipation by all human beings. Human emancipation would erase all deficiencies that are found in civil society: private property, insecurity and religion. Human emancipation would, then, end social inequality. Only then, humans would achieve real and total freedom. Only when the individual and the citizen would synthesize their antagonisms in the species-being would humanity be free from all its social and political constraints and a truly democratic State would appear. (2)Marx's views on Judaism have been defined as anti-Semitic by several critics; but it is not the case (3). First of all, Marx was a strong advocate for political emancipation to the Jewish communities in Europe, especially in Germany, and he believed, in opposition to Bauer, that the Jewry was fully capable of becoming citizens in a secular State by privatizing their creed. Although, it has to be said that Marx, like Bauer, considered Judaism to be a religion based on laws; he did not directly consider the case if Judaism could withstand the transformation to a private form. Orthodox Jews, for example, would not become suitable for citizenship in the modern secular State. Because Marx could not resolve this argument in a direct form he chose to solve it by taking Judaism in its socio-historical context instead than in a purely theological way. To Marx Jews have embodied the mercantile spirit in a natural economy dominated Europe (4). Jews did not choose to be merchants or entrepreneurs: feudal society limited them to those kinds of activities. They could not legally own land or be members of any corporate guild. Jews could only deal with money or goods exchange(5). Then, Jews could only be considered as bourgeois, as capitalists, as financiers. Even if, like Marx says, the Jewish mercantile particularity had already generalized through the Christian world and there was no economic basis for distinguishing between Jews and Gentiles, which allowed the Jews to practically self-emancipate by the "Judaization" of society; the general public was still perceiving Judaism as a synonymous of "merchants"(6). It is rather interesting to note that in 1850 half of all entrepreneurs in Berlin were Jews and that in 1861 58% of the Prussian Jewry was engaged in commerce and credit, while only 2% of Christians was similarly employed (7). When Marx calls for the abolition of Judaism, he is calling for the abolition of the economic activity that was a reflection of the Jews social-historical role in society; he is calling for the end of the mercantile/capitalist elements that produce social inequality. The abolition of Judaism means the abolition of all religions through the correction of the secular defect of civil society(8). Finally, Marx's views on the political emancipation of a religious minority and of social emancipation as the only way to end all inequalities and distinctions could be helpful in order to understand the current Muslim Question that is concerning much of Europe. The Muslim question is significantly different from 19th century's Jewish question. Jews were asking for the State's recognition of the same basic constitutional rights that Christians already, or were about to, benefited from. Additionally, liberal-secularists, like Bauer, were concerned about Judaism's capability to remove their religious practices from the public sphere and privatize them. According to them, it was essential for the survival of the modern secular State that its citizens should exclude their religious distinctiveness from all of their public interactions with the State or with other fellow citizens. Today, Muslims in Europe enjoy all of the individual and social rights that are recognized in each of the European Constitutions; meaning political emancipation is not an issue. It is Islam's interactions with the secular, and almost irreligious, European public spheres that has become on of the most fervent debates in the last few years. Such debate extremely overcomes the purpose of this article, but a few points should be taken into account regarding the Muslim question and the relevance of Marx's work on the matter. Marx, just like with the political emancipation of the Jews, would not have been able to directly confront the possibility of a real privatization of Islamic beliefs, because he would have faced the same issue that arose in the Jewish question: Islam, like Judaism, is a religious of laws. As it has been said, a religion of laws will almost certainly contradict the laws of a secular State and would not be able to refrain from interrelate with the public sphere. For example, teachers wearing a Muslim veil or turban in public schools; Muslim women wearing burqas in public facilities; the introduction of Sharia law in order to legalize social relationships within Muslim communities and in their relations with non-Muslim communities; etc., are challenges to the secular State. Several European countries are juggling between the right of freedom of religion and absolute secularism(9): France chooses to ban burqas in public spaces; the Netherlands to expel teachers from public schools that insisted in wearing veils or turbans in class; Italy to reform family law in order to stop "honor killings" among Muslim families; etc. But like with Judaism, Marx would overcome Islam's inability to privatize its creed by arguing that such incapability is a symptom of the antagonism between civil society (the individual egoistic man) and the State (the solidary citizen) and that will never be surpassed until human emancipation is obtained. Interestingly enough, while during the 19th century Jews were an equivalent to bourgeois and entrepreneurs, Muslims of the 21st century, on the other hand, are identified with other kinds of socio-economic characterization. Muslims are identified either as proletarians or as lumpenproletarians. Remarkably, the occupational standing of 84% of Muslims living in Germany is either blue or white collar; compared to just 40% of non-Muslims Germans (10); 20% of young non-Muslim French are unemployed compared to 50% of young French Muslims(11); 9% of non-Muslim Dutch are unemployed, while 30% of Dutch Muslims are jobless(12); 10% of non-Muslim Belgians live below the poverty line, while 60% of Muslim Belgians are poor(13); 15% of non-Muslim British households are in poverty, but that percentage ascends to 55% when Muslim British households are considered(14). In Europe 80% of Muslim men are employed in low-skill/low-wage jobs and in routine manual and service occupations, only 45% of non-Muslim men are employed in the same kind of jobs(15). Finally, when the Human Development Index is taken into account and it is divided among the Muslim and non-Muslim population in the European countries it is evidenced that the standard of living of Muslim communities is significantly lower than that of the rest (16). This brief and expedited socio-economic context of Muslims in Europe would be employed by Marx in order to circumvent Islam's inability to privatize its creed: Muslims, although they live in modern secular States and enjoy political emancipation, persist in carrying on with their religious practices in public spaces, and sometimes in opposition to public laws, because they are suffering social inequality; they are suffering from not attaining human emancipation. Of course, all human beings lack of human emancipation, not only Muslims in Europe, but it is Muslims' special socio-economic situation in Europe that creates a secular deficiency from political emancipation and prevents their religion's transformation into a private creed. Jews did not have political emancipation and were, in their majority, entrepreneurs, which gave them a better socio-economic standing and allowed them to privatize their religion once political emancipation was conquered. Most of European Muslims, in contrast, are proletarians and, in worst cases, lumpenproletarians (17)and even if they enjoy political emancipation they find themselves in a position characterized by an extreme social inequality, that does not allow many of them to privatize their creed (18). Only through human emancipation and social equality they would be able to negate their religious differentiation; because in a true democratic State, a communist State according to Marx, communism itself would act as a religious belief and manner of living. That is, perhaps, how Marx intended to accomplish the abolition of all religions: by the emergence of a new politically and socially equal "religion for all human beings", that of communism.(1) Peled Yoad; "From Theology to Sociology: Bruno Bauer and Karl Marx on the Question of Jewish Emancipation";History of Political Thought; Vol. XIII, No. 3, Autumn, 1992. (2) Marx borrows the concept of species-being from Feuerbach. It seems to be implied in the text, although it is more possible to be influenced by later Marx's texts, that revolution is the mean to obtain human emancipation; the mean that those who suffer from social inequality will use in order to end that suffering. Once human emancipation is reached then the democratic/communist State is at hand. Again, this is not actually said in On the Jewish Question. (3) See Flannery Edward, Antisemitism: Myth and Hate from Antiquity to the Present, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2005, pp.154-157; and Lewis Bernard, Semites and Anti-Semites: An Inquiry into Conflict and Prejudice, W. W. Norton & Company, New York, 1999, pp. 112.(4) Peled Yoad; "From Theology to Sociology: Bruno Bauer and Karl Marx on the Question of Jewish Emancipation"; History of Political Thought; Vol. XIII, No. 3, Autumn, 1992, pp. 475. (5) It was this image of the "financial Jew", embodied in the Rothschild dynasty, which begot the western anti-Semitic wave of the 19th and 20th century. See Arendt, Hannah, The Origins of Totalitarianism, Benediction Books, New York, 2009; Ferguson Niall, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Penguin, New York, 2009; Ferguson Niall, The House of Rothschild, Penguin, New York, 2000; Landes David,Dynasties: Fortunes and Misfortunes of the World's Great Family Businesses, Penguin, New York, 2007.(6) Actually, the word "Judentum" came to be a synonymous with commerce.(7) Sorkin David, The Transformation of German Jewry, 1780-1840, Wayne State University Press, New York, 1999, pp. 108-9.(8) Peled Yoad; "From Theology to Sociology: Bruno Bauer and Karl Marx on the Question of Jewish Emancipation"; History of Political Thought; Vol. XIII, No. 3, Autumn, 1992, pp. 481.(9) For more about the interaction of Muslim minorities and political liberalism in a Rawlsian version see Benhenda, Mostapha, "For Muslim Minorities, it is Possible to Endorse Political Liberalism, but this is not Enough", Journal Of Islamic Law and Culture, Vol. 11, No. 2, May 2009, pp. 71-87. The article concludes that almost all Muslim minorities could and will endorse political liberalism, but many will not be able to do it because of a religious normative prohibition to reform their doctrine.(10) "Muslim Life in Germany", Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, German Government, http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/EN/Migration/Publikationen/Forschung/Forschungsberichte/fb6-muslimisches-leben,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/fb6-muslimisches-leben.pdf(11) "Muslims in Europe", Open Society Institute; http://www.soros.org/initiatives/home/articles_publications/publications/muslims-europe-20091215/a-muslims-europe-20100302.pdf(12) Ibid.(13) Ibid.(14) Ibid.(15) Ibid.(16) For example, the HDI of Spain, Italy, Great Britain, France, Germany and Sweden are: 0,955; 0,951; 0,947; 0,961; 0.947 and 0,963 respectively; while the HDI of their respective Muslim communities are: 0,841; 0, 848; 0, 830; 0, 850; 0, 860; 0,912. Available at the European Social Survey http://ess.nsd.uib.no/ (17) Loïc Wacquant would call them "urban outcasts" or marginal. See Wacquant Loïc, Urban Outcasts: A Comparative Sociology of Advanced Marginality, Polity, Cambridge, 2007; Wacquant Loïc, Prisons of Poverty, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 2009; Wacquant Loïc, Los Condenados de la ciudad. Gueto, peripherias, Estado, Siglo XII Editores, Buenos Aires, 2007.(18) Certainly they are more religious than Christian and Jewish Europeans because they are perceived as a marginalized minority and in fierce competition with non-Muslim proletarians. It is civil society that enforces religious differentiation on them.*Estudiante de Doctorado, New School for Social Research, New YorkMaestría en Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos AiresÁrea de Especialización: Procesos de formación del Estado moderno, sociología de la guerra, terrorismo, genocidio, conflictos étnicos, nacionalismos y minorías.

Economic growth in West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) slowed in the first quarter (Q1) of 2012. The real growth rate is estimated to have reached 5.6 percent, more than three percentage points lower than the Q1 2011 growth figure and almost one percent lower than the growth forecast contained in the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) budget. This decline is attributed to a major slowdown in Gaza, where real growth decreased from 21.3 percent to 6 percent on a year-on-year basis. The slowdown in Gaza during Q1 of 2012 was mainly attributed to a major decline in the agriculture and fishing sector, which offset much of the growth witnessed in other sectors. This sector shrank by 43 percent in Q1 2012 due to frequent power outages resulting from the lack of fuel in Gaza. Nevertheless, other sectors in Gaza expanded and the highest growth levels were witnessed in the construction, and hotels and restaurants sectors. In the West Bank, growth in Q1 2012 was broadly unchanged from its 2011 level. Most of the growth was from an expansion of services, which contributed around 2.2 percentage points of the 5.4 percent total growth in Q1 2012. The recent slowdown in economic growth is also reflected in higher unemployment levels. Overall unemployment in WB&G was 20.9 percent in the second quarter of 2012 compared to 18.7 percent during the same period in 2011. A serious concern in WB&G is the high level of youth unemployment that is accompanied by low youth participation in the labor force.

Since the last Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) meeting, the PA has continued to strengthen its institutions, delivering public services and promoting reforms that many existing states struggle with. The quality of its public financial management (PFM) has further improved. Education and health in the West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) are highly developed, comparing favorably to the performance of countries in the region as well as globally. Ultimately, sustainable economic growth in WB&G can only be underpinned by a vibrant private sector. The latter will not rebound significantly while Israeli restrictions on access to natural resources and markets remain in place, and as long as investors are deterred by the increased cost of business associated with the closure regime. Education and health indicators for WB&G are impressive and reflect extensive coverage of the population, but a focus on improving the quality of these services remains warranted. Similarly, education investments take time to mature. While the PA is already implementing an education sector plan that highlights the importance of improving the quality of education, the relevance of graduates' skills remains an area requiring further attention. This report will therefore reflect on recent growth trends but also on the future trade regime and employability of the WB&G labor force.

On August 25, 2009, the 13th Government of the Palestinian Authority (PA) presented a program entitled "Palestine: ending the occupation, establishing the state" (hereafter referred to as the program) outlining several national goals, including the achievement of 'economic independence and national prosperity'. The program accords high priority to the development of the public institutions of the PA in order to achieve the stated national goals. It acknowledges that maintaining an efficient and effective public sector that provides citizens with high quality services and value for money is a constant challenge. No amount of well-functioning institutions, will, however, lead to economic growth in the absence of access to markets, whether within the West Bank and Gaza, in Israel, or in the rest of the world. In this regard, the recent developments in easing of movement and access restrictions by the Government of Israel (GoI) represent a welcome first step. The GoI has taken steps to ease movement restrictions in the West Bank and to allow greater access to West Bank markets for Arab citizens of Israel. In the first half of 2009, the political stalemate in Gaza continued and the economy stagnated. The West Bank economy is showing signs of new growth, so that it is possible that for the first time in years, West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) may have positive per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2009.

En esta cuarta sección del evento Economía de la Informalidad Conferencia 2020, se presento la Ponencia de la profesora Pascaline Dupas, profesora de la Universidad de Stanford, La ponencia de la profesora Pascaline Dupas, titulada Informality in the time of Covid-19 (Informalidad en tiempos de Covid-19) hace un recorrido sobre las relaciones económicas que se desarrollan en un contexto de informalidad y analiza cómo la pandemia ha afectado de manera diferencial a poblaciones formales e informales a través de tres fuentes de datos diferentes. Dupas divide su presentación en tres partes. La primera muestra una perspectiva amplia de la informalidad y la correlación entre este fenómeno y el desarrollo económico de los países. La segunda es sobre las razones por las cuales la pandemia de Covid-19 podría imponer retos en relación con la informalidad. La tercera es sobre los impactos que se han observado en el corto plazo como consecuencia del Covid-19. En la primera parte de su ponencia, Dupas hace énfasis en que la informalidad no es únicamente laboral (por ejemplo, firmas que se ocultan de la regulación del gobierno, o trabajadores que no cuentan con contratos laborales formales), sino que trasciende a los ámbitos de vivienda, transporte, comercio, pagos, seguros, consumo, gravámenes e instituciones. De hecho, resalta que estos aspectos suelen sobreponerse y ocurrir simultáneamente, o uno como consecuencia de algún otro. Más aún, la informalidad en cada una de estas áreas está relacionada con condiciones de vida más difíciles y menos oportunidades. Por ejemplo, Dupas presenta amplia evidencia de la correlación entre las dimensiones de la informalidad usando datos para la capital marfileña Abiyán, mostrando que las personas que viven en asentamientos informales adolecen de derechos de propiedad, son más propensas a tener que hacer pagos informales a autoridades locales para evitar desalojos, suelen depender de instituciones informales y suelen tener menor cobertura de tarjetas gubernamentales de identificación. Los empleados informales, por su lado, tienen ingresos irregulares que les dificulta aceptar compromisos con entidades formales. Por esta razón, cuando requieren una red de seguridad frente a riesgos, suelen acudir a seguros informales, así como a créditos informales. Asimismo, pagos informales a las autoridades (corrupción) permiten que se mantenga la informalidad en asentamientos, contratos y comercio. Esto lleva a la pregunta sobre si la informalidad es una elección. Frente a esto, Dupas argumenta que, por el lado de los trabajadores, la mayoría preferirían tener contratos formales reconocidos frente a la ley y con seguridad social. Por su lado, las firmas informales preferirían mantenerse en esa condición por cuestiones de viabilidad (no serían rentables en escenarios formales). A su vez, Dupas dice que las personas que viven en asentamientos informales no encuentran otras opciones de vivienda asequible que estén a una distancia razonable de las oportunidades laborales. En la segunda parte de su ponencia, Dupas argumenta que el Covid-19 ha levantado preocupaciones por sus efectos sobre la población informal. En primer lugar, los asentamientos informales son más propensos para la transmisión masiva del virus, pues son muy densos en términos de población, tienen muchas personas por hogar, tienen fuentes acuíferas comunales, acceso limitado a redes de saneamiento y a instalaciones de higiene. De la misma forma, se desplazan usando medios de transporte congestionados y compran en lugares muy concurridos. Lo anterior se traduce en el hecho de que hay una seroprevalencia de Covid-19 del 54% en los asentamientos informales de Mumbai (India) y del 53% en los de Buenos Aires (Argentina). Por otro lado, la informalidad está relacionada con menor resiliencia a las cuarentenas o bloqueos relacionados con el Covid-19. Lo anterior se debe a que estas medidas eliminan los ingresos de los trabajadores, obligan a los individuos a acceder a mercados más costosos, imponen restricciones al transporte público informal y dificultades de movilidad. A esto se suma que, dado que tienen menor acceso a cuentas financieras formales, se hace más difíciles de alcanzar con ayudas gubernamentales. Asimismo, suelen experimentar una caída en los ingresos de remesas. En la tercera parte, Dupas documenta una serie de impactos económicos del Covid-19. Hace referencia a casos de estudio en Colombia, México, Costa de Marfil y Ghana. En el caso de Colombia y México, analizan la encuesta IPA RECOVR realizada por IPA, que incluye tanto a Bogotá como al Distrito Federal. En estas ciudades, se evidenciaron pérdidas de trabajos, que fueron más pronunciadas sobre la informalidad. Las personas formales en estas ciudades reportaron pérdidas de empleo de un 40%, mientras que esa cifra alcanzó el 80% entre los informales. Los trabajadores informales reportaron que, post-Covid, trabajaron menos horas que antes y ganaron menos que antes. En el caso de Ghana, Dupas hizo referencia a los efectos causales de la educación sobre la resiliencia ante choques como el de la pandemia de Covid-19. Frente a esto, mostró resultados que indican que las beneficiarias de programas educativos tuvieron mayor resiliencia laboral en términos de permanencia e ingresos. Finalmente, Dupas concluyó con cuatro puntos. Primero, que la informalidad tiene muchos dominios interconectados entre sí. Segundo, que la informalidad estuvo relacionada con vulnerabilidad aumentada frente a las crisis. Tercero, que los impactos del Covid-19 tienen una gran probabilidad de extenderse en el largo plazo. Lo anterior, sobre todo, porque las inversiones en nutrición de la primera infancia y en educación han caído debido a la pandemia. Y estas inversiones son muy importantes para el desarrollo de mediano y largo plazo de los niños, niñas y adolescentes. Por último, resaltó que la recuperación de esta situación va a ser intrincada. Esto, debido a la destrucción de negocios, activos y trabajos que significó la pandemia y las cuarentenas consecuentes para los individuos. Todo esto, con un enfoque diferencial frente a la informalidad que indica que va a ser mucho más difícil recuperarse para los que antes de la pandemia ya eran informales. ; In this fourth section of the Economics of Informality Conference 2020 event, the Presentation by Professor Pascaline Dupas, a professor at Stanford University, The presentation by Professor Pascaline Dupas, entitled Informality in the time of Covid-19 (Informality in times of Covid-19) takes a tour of the economic relations that develop in a context of informality and analyzes how the The pandemic has differentially affected formal and informal populations through three different data sources. Dupas divides his presentation into three parts. The first shows a broad perspective of informality and the correlation between this phenomenon and the economic development of the countries. The second is about the reasons why the Covid-19 pandemic could pose challenges in relation to informality. The third is about the impacts that have been observed in the short term as a consequence of Covid-19. In the first part of his presentation, Dupas emphasizes that informality is not only labor (for example, firms that hide from government regulation, or workers who do not have formal labor contracts), but that it transcends of housing, transport, commerce, payments, insurance, consumption, taxes and institutions. In fact, it highlights that these aspects tend to overlap and occur simultaneously, or one as a consequence of some other. Furthermore, informality in each of these areas is related to more difficult living conditions and fewer opportunities. For example, Dupas presents ample evidence of the correlation between dimensions of informality using data for the Ivorian capital Abidjan, showing that people who live in informal settlements lack property rights, are more likely to have to make informal payments to authorities. To avoid evictions, they tend to rely on informal institutions and tend to have less coverage from government identification cards. Informal employees, on the other hand, have irregular income that makes it difficult for them to accept commitments with formal entities. For this reason, when they require a safety net against risks, they tend to turn to informal insurance, as well as informal loans. Likewise, informal payments to the authorities (corruption) allow informality to be maintained in settlements, contracts and commerce. This leads to the question of whether informality is a choice. Faced with this, Dupas argues that, on the workers' side, the majority would prefer to have formal contracts recognized by the law and with social security. For their part, informal firms would prefer to remain in that condition for viability reasons (they would not be profitable in formal settings). In turn, Dupas says that people living in informal settlements do not find other affordable housing options that are within a reasonable distance of job opportunities. In the second part of his presentation, Dupas argues that Covid-19 has raised concerns about its effects on the informal population. First, informal settlements are more prone to massive transmission of the virus, as they are very dense in terms of population, have many people per household, have communal water sources, limited access to sanitation networks and hygiene facilities. In the same way, they travel using congested means of transport and shop in crowded places. This translates into the fact that there is a Covid-19 seroprevalence of 54% in the informal settlements of Mumbai (India) and 53% in those of Buenos Aires (Argentina). On the other hand, informality is related to less resilience to quarantines or blockades related to Covid-19. This is because these measures eliminate workers' income, force individuals to access more expensive markets, impose restrictions on informal public transport and mobility difficulties. Added to this is that, given that they have less access to formal financial accounts, it is more difficult to achieve with government aid. They also tend to experience a drop in remittance income. In the third part, Dupas documents a series of economic impacts of Covid-19. It refers to case studies in Colombia, Mexico, Ivory Coast and Ghana. In the case of Colombia and Mexico, they analyze the IPA RECOVR survey conducted by IPA, which includes both Bogotá and the Federal District. In these cities, job losses were evidenced, which were more pronounced on informality. Formal people in these cities reported job losses of 40%, while that figure reached 80% among informal ones. Informal workers reported that, post-Covid, they worked fewer hours than before and earned less than before. In the case of Ghana, Dupas referred to the causal effects of education on resilience to shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Faced with this, it showed results that indicate that the beneficiaries of educational programs had greater work resilience in terms of permanence and income. Finally, Dupas concluded with four points. First, that informality has many interconnected domains. Second, that informality was related to increased vulnerability to crises. Third, that the impacts of Covid-19 have a high probability of spreading in the long term. The above, above all, because investments in early childhood nutrition and education have fallen due to the pandemic. And these investments are very important for the medium and long-term development of children and adolescents. Finally, he stressed that the recovery from this situation will be intricate. This, due to the destruction of businesses, assets and jobs that the pandemic meant and the consequent quarantines for individuals. All this, with a differential approach to informality that indicates that it will be much more difficult to recover for those who were already informal before the pandemic.

The thirteenth government of the Palestinian Authority (PA) presented in August 2009 a program entitled Palestine: ending the occupation, establishing the state (hereafter referred to as the program) that lays out the vision, foundational principles, and national goals for the future Palestinian state, as well as institution-building and sector priorities. This report will therefore begin by discussing recent trends in the economic restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) on West Bank and Gaza (WB&G). The next section will focus on an analysis of economic and fiscal developments, highlighting the fact that WB&G experienced in 2009 a third consecutive year of economic growth and rising per capita GDP, driven by large inflows of external assistance and a relatively stable security situation. Despite the growth, however, the recurrent deficit rose from roughly US$1.3 billion in 2008 to US$1.6 billion on a commitment basis in 2009, mostly as a result of emergency spending in Gaza in the aftermath of Israel s military operation (operation cast lead, December 27, 2008, January 18, 2009) as well as arrears brought forward from 2008 and recognized as commitments in 2009. Given this finding, the discussion in remainder of the report is particularly relevant, focusing on the reform areas of fiscal strengthening and improved public financial management and the important role played by local governments in this regard.

This post takes up from two previous posts (part 1;  part 2), asking just what do we (we economists) really know about how interest rates affect inflation. Today, what does contemporary economic theory say? As you may recall, the standard story says that the Fed raises interest rates; inflation (and expected inflation) don't immediately jump up, so real interest rates rise; with some lag, higher real interest rates push down employment and output (IS); with some more lag, the softer economy leads to lower prices and wages (Phillips curve). So higher interest rates lower future inflation, albeit with "long and variable lags." Higher interest rates -> (lag) lower output, employment -> (lag) lower inflation. In part 1, we saw that it's not easy to see that story in the data. In part 2, we saw that half a century of formal empirical work also leaves that conclusion on very shaky ground. As they say at the University of Chicago, "Well, so much for the real world, how does it work in theory?" That is an important question. We never really believe things we don't have a theory for, and for good reason. So, today, let's look at what modern theory has to say about this question. And they are not unrelated questions. Theory has been trying to replicate this story for decades. The answer: Modern (anything post 1972) theory really does not support this idea. The standard new-Keynesian model does not produce anything like the standard story.  Models that modify that simple model to achieve something like result of the standard story do so with a long list of complex ingredients. The new ingredients are not just sufficient, they are (apparently) necessary to produce the desired dynamic pattern. Even these models do not  implement the verbal logic above. If the pattern that high interest rates lower inflation over a few years is true, it is by a completely different mechanism than the story tells. I conclude that we don't have a simple economic model that produces the standard belief. ("Simple" and "economic" are important qualifiers.) The simple new-Keynesian model The central problem comes from the Phillips curve. The modern Phillips curve asserts that price-setters are forward-looking. If they know inflation will be high next year, they raise prices now. So Inflation today = expected inflation next year + (coefficient) x output gap.  \[\pi_t = E_t\pi_{t+1} + \kappa x_t\](If you know enough to complain about \(\beta\approx0.99\) in front of \(E_t\pi_{t+1}\) you know enough that it doesn't matter for the issues here.)Now, if the Fed raises interest rates, and if (if) that lowers output or raises unemployment, inflation today goes down. The trouble is, that's not what we're looking for. Inflation goes down today, (\(\pi_t\))relative to expected inflation next year (\(E_t\pi_{t+1}\)). So a higher interest rate and lower output correlate with inflation that is rising over time.    Here is a concrete example: The plot is the response of the standard three equation new-Keynesian model to an \(\varepsilon_1\) shock at time 1:\[\begin{align} x_t &= E_t x_{t+1} - \sigma(i_t - E_t\pi_{t+1}) \\ \pi_t & = \beta E_t \pi_{t+1} + \kappa x_t \\ i_t &= \phi \pi_t + u_t \\ u_t &= \eta u_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t. \end{align}\] Here \(x\) is output, \(i\) is the interest rate, \(\pi\) is inflation, \(\eta=0.6\), \(\sigma=1\), \(\kappa=0.25\), \(\beta=0.95\), \(\phi=1.2\). In this plot, higher interest rates are said to lower inflation. But they lower inflation immediately, on the day of the interest rate shock. Then, as explained above, inflation rises over time. In the standard view, and the empirical estimates from the last post, a higher interest rate has no immediate effect, and then future inflation is lower. See plots in the last post, or this one from Romer and Romer's 2023 summary:Inflation jumping down and then rising in the future is quite different from inflation that does nothing immediately, might even rise for a few months, and then starts gently going down. You might even wonder about the downward jump in inflation. The Phillips curve makes it clear why current inflation is lower than expected future inflation, but why doesn't current inflation stay the same, or even rise, and expected future inflation rise more? That's the "equilibrium selection" issue. All those paths are possible, and you need extra rules to pick a particular one. Fiscal theory points out that the downward jump needs a fiscal tightening, so represents a joint monetary-fiscal policy. But we don't argue about that today. Take the standard new Keynesian model exactly as is, with passive fiscal policy and standard equilibrium selection rules. It predicts that inflation jumps down immediately and then rises over time. It does not predict that inflation slowly declines over time.  This is not a new issue. Larry Ball (1994) first  pointed out that the standard new Keynesian Phillips curve says that output is high when inflation is high relative to expected future inflation, that is when inflation is declining. Standard beliefs  go the other way: output is high when inflation is rising.  The IS curve is a key part of the overall prediction, and output faces a similar problem. I just assumed above that output falls when interest rates rise. In the model it does; output follows a path with the same shape as inflation in my little plot. Output also jumps down and then rises over time. Here too, the (much stronger) empirical evidence says that an interest rate rise does not change output immediately, and output then falls rather than rises over time. The intuition has even clearer economics behind it: Higher real interest rates induce people to consume less today and more tomorrow. Higher real interest rates should go with higher, not lower, future consumption growth. Again, the model only apparently reverses the sign by having output jump down before rising. Key issuesHow can we be here, 40 years later, and the benchmark textbook model so utterly does not replicate standard beliefs about monetary policy? One answer, I believe, is confusing adjustment to equilibrium with equilibrium dynamics. The model generates inflation lower than yesterday (time 0 to time 1) and lower than it otherwise would be (time 1 without shock vs time 1 with shock). Now, all economic models are a bit stylized. It's easy to say that when we add various frictions, "lower than yesterday" or "lower than it would have been" is a good parable for "goes down over time."  If in a simple supply and demand graph we say that an increase in demand raises prices instantly, we naturally understand that as a parable for a drawn out period of price increases once we add appropriate frictions. But dynamic macroeconomics doesn't work that way. We have already added what was supposed to be the central friction, sticky prices. Dynamic economics is supposed to describe the time-path of variables already, with no extra parables. If adjustment to equilibrium takes time, then model that.  The IS and Phillips curve are forward looking, like stock prices. It would make little sense to say "news comes out that the company will never make money, so the stock price should decline gradually over a few years." It should jump down now. Inflation and output behave that way in the standard model. A second confusion, I think, is between sticky prices and sticky inflation. The new-Keynesian model posits, and a huge empirical literature examines, sticky prices. But that is not the same thing as sticky inflation. Prices can be arbitrarily sticky and inflation, the first derivative of prices, can still jump. In the Calvo model, imagine that only a tiny fraction of firms can change prices at each instant. But when they do, they will change prices a lot, and the overall price level will start increasing right away. In the continuous-time version of the model, prices are continuous (sticky), but inflation jumps at the moment of the shock.  The standard story wants sticky inflation. Many authors explain the new-Keynesian model with sentences like "the Fed raises interest rates. Prices are sticky, so inflation can't go up right away and real interest rates are higher." This is wrong. Inflation can rise right away. In the standard new-Keynesian model it does so with \(\eta=1\), for any amount of price stickiness. Inflation rises immediately with a persistent monetary policy shock. Just get it out of your heads. The standard model does not produce the standard story. The obvious response is, let's add ingredients to the standard model and see if we can modify the response function to look something like the common beliefs and VAR estimates. Let's go. Adaptive expectations We can reproduce standard beliefs about monetary policy with thoroughly adaptive expectations, in the 1970s ISLM form. I think this is a large part of what  most policy makers and commenters have in mind.  Modify the above model to leave out the dynamic part of the intertemporal substitution equation, to just say in rather ad hoc way that higher real interest rates lower output, and specify that the expected inflation that drives the real rate and that drives pricing decisions is mechanically equal to previous inflation, \(E_t \pi_{t+1} = \pi_{t-1}\). We get \[ \begin{align} x_t &= -\sigma (i_t - \pi_{t-1}) \\ \pi_t & = \pi_{t-1} + \kappa x_t .\end{align}\] We can solve this sytsem analytically to \[\pi_t = (1+\sigma\kappa)\pi_{t-1} - \sigma\kappa i_t.\]Here's what happens if the Fed permanently raises the interest rate. Higher interest rates send future inflation down. (\(\kappa=0.25,\ \sigma=1.\)) Inflation eventually spirals away, but central banks don't leave interest rates alone forever. If we add a Taylor rule response \(i_t = \phi \pi_t + u_t\),  so the central bank reacts to the emerging spiral, we get this response to a permanent monetary policy disturbance \(u_t\): The higher interest rate sets off a deflation spiral. But the Fed quickly follows inflation down to stabilize the situation. This is, I think, the conventional story of the 1980s. In terms of ingredients, an apparently minor change of index from \(E_t \pi_{t+1}\) to \(\pi_{t-1}\) is in fact a big change. It means directly that higher output comes with increasing inflation, not decreasing inflation, solving Ball's puzzle.  The change basically changes the sign of output in the Phillips curve. Again, it's not really all in the Phillips curve. This model with rational expectations in the IS equation and adaptive in the Phillips curve produces junk. To get the result you need adaptive expectations everywhere. The adaptive expectations model gets the desired result by changing the basic sign and stability properties of the model. Under rational expectations the model is stable; inflation goes away all on its own under an interest rate peg. With adaptive expectations, the model is unstable. Inflation or deflation spiral away under an interest rate peg or at the zero bound. The Fed's job is like balancing a broom upside down. If you move the bottom (interest rates) one way, the broom zooms off the other way. With rational expectations, the model is stable, like a pendulum.  This is not a small wrinkle designed to modify dynamics. This is major surgery. It is also a robust property: small changes in parameters do not change the dominant eigenvalue of a model from over one to less than one.  A more refined way to capture how Fed officials and pundits think and talk might be called "temporarily fixed expectations." Policy people do talk about the modern Phillips curve; they say inflation depends on inflation expectations and employment. Expectations are not mechanically adaptive. Expectations are a third force, sometimes "anchored," and amenable to manipulation by speeches and dot plots. Crucially, in this analysis, expected inflation does not move when the Fed changes interest rates.  Expectations are then  very slowly adaptive, if inflation is persistent, or if there is a more general loss of faith in "anchoring." In the above new-Keynesian model graph, at the minute the Fed raises the interest rate, expected inflation jumps up to follow the graph's plot of the model's forecast of inflation. As a simple way to capture these beliefs, suppose expectations are fixed or "anchored" at \(\pi^e\). Then my simple model is \[\begin{align}x_t & = -\sigma(i_t - \pi^e) \\ \pi_t & = \pi^e + \kappa x_t\end{align}\]so \[\pi_t = \pi^e - \sigma \kappa (i_t - \pi^e).\] Inflation is expected inflation, and lowered by higher interest rates (last - sign). But those rates need only be higher than the fixed expectations; they do not need to be higher than past rates as they do in the adaptive expectations model. That's why the Fed thinks 3% interest rates with 5% inflation is still "contractionary"--expected inflation remains at 2%, not the 5% of recent adaptive experience.  Also by fixing expectations, I remove the instability of the adaptive expectations model... so long as those expectations stay anchored. The Fed recognizes that eventually higher inflation moves the expectations, and with a belief that is adaptive, they fear that an inflation spiral can still break out.Even this view does not give us any lags, however. The Fed and commenters clearly believe that higher real interest rates today lower output next year, not immediately; and they believe that lower output and employment today drive inflation down in the future, not immediately. They believe something like \[\begin{align}x_{t+1} &= - \sigma(i_t - \pi^e) \\ \pi_{t+1} &= \pi^e + \kappa x_t.\end{align}\] But now we're at the kind of non-economic ad-hockery that the whole 1970s revolution abandoned. And for a reason: Ad hoc models are unstable, regimes are always changing. Moreover, let me remind you of our quest: Is there a simple economic model of monetary policy that generates something like the standard view? At this level of ad-hockery you might as well just write down the coefficients of Romer and Romer's response function and call that the model of how interest rates affect inflation.  Academic economics gave up on mechanical expectations and ad-hoc models in the 1970s. You can't publish a paper with this sort of model. So when I mean a "modern" model, I mean  rational expectations, or at least the consistency condition that the expectations in the model are not fundamentally different from forecasts of the model. (Models with explicit learning or other expectation-formation frictions count too.) It's easy to puff about people aren't rational, and looking out the window lots of people do dumb things. But if we take that view, then the whole project of monetary policy on the proposition that people are fundamentally unable to learn patterns in the economy, that a benevolent Federal Reserve can trick the poor little souls into a better outcome.  And somehow the Fed is the lone super-rational actor who can avoid all those pesky behavioral biases. We are looking for the minimum necessary ingredients to describe the basic signs and function of monetary policy. A bit of irrational or complex expectation formation as icing on the cake, a possible sufficient ingredient to produce quantitatively realistic dynamics, isn't awful. But it would be sad if irrational expectations or other behavior is a necessary ingredient to get the most basic sign and story of monetary policy right. If persistent irrationality is a central necessary ingredient for the basic sign and operation of monetary policy -- if higher interest rates will raise inflation the minute people smarten up; if there is no simple supply and demand, MV=PY sensible economics underlying the basic operation of monetary policy; if it's all a conjuring trick  -- that should really weaken our faith in the whole monetary policy project.  Facts help, and we don't have to get religious about it. During the long zero bound, the same commentators and central bankers kept warning about a deflation spiral, clearly predicted by this model. It never happened. Interest rates below inflation from 2021 to 2023 should have led to an upward inflation spiral. It never happened -- inflation eased all on its own with interest rates below inflation.Getting the desired response to interest rates by making the model unstable isn't tenable whether or not you like the ingredient.  Inflation also surged in the 1970s faster than adaptive expectations came close to predicting, and fell faster in the 1980s.  The ends of many inflations come with credible changes in regime. There is a lot of work now desperately trying to fix new-Keynesian models by making them more old-Keynesian, putting lagged inflation in the Phillips curve, current income in the IS equation, and so forth. Complex learning and expectation formation stories replace the simplistic adaptive expectations here. As far as I can tell, to the extent they work they largely do so in the same way, by reversing the basic stability of the model. Modifying the new-Keynesian modelThe alternative is to add ingredients to the basic new-Keynesian model, maintaining its insistence on real "micro-founded" economics and forward-looking behavior, and describing explicit dynamics as the evolution of equilibrium quantities.  Christiano Eichenbaum and Evans (2005) is one of the most famous examples. Recall these same authors  created the first most influential VAR that gave the "right" answer to the effects of monetary policy shocks. This paper modifies the standard new-Keynesian model with a specific eye to matching impulse response functions. The want to match all impulse-responses, with a special focus on output. When I started asking my young macro colleagues for a standard model which produces the desired response shape, they still cite CEE first, though it's 20 years later. That's quite an accomplishment. I'll look at it in detail, as the general picture is the same as many other models that achieve the desired result. Here's their bottom line response to a monetary policy shock: (Figure from the 2018 Christiano Eichenbaum and Trabandt Journal of Economic Perspectives summary paper.)  The solid line is the VAR point estimate and gray shading is the 95% confidence band. The solid blue line is the main model. The dashed line is the model with only price stickiness, to emphasize the importance of wage stickiness. The shock happens at time 0. Notice the funds rate line that jumps down at that date. That the other lines do not move at time 0 is a result. I graphed the response to a time 1 shock above. That's the answer, now what's the question? What ingredients did they add above the textbook model to reverse the basic sign and jump problem and to produce  these pretty pictures? Here is a partial list: Habit formation. The utility function is  \(log(c_t - bc_{t-1})\). A capital stock with adjustment costs in investment.  Adjustment costs are proportional to investment growth, \([1-S(i_t/i_{t-1})]i_t\), rather than the usual formulation in which adjustment costs are proportional to the investment to capital ratio \(S(i_t/k_t)i_t\). Variable capital utilization. Capital services \(k_t\) are related to the capital stock \(\bar{k}t\) by \(k_t = u_t \bar{k}_t\). The utilization rate \(u_t\) is set by households facing an upward sloping cost \(a(u_t)\bar{k}_t\).Calvo pricing with indexation: Firms randomly get to reset prices, but firms that aren't allowed to reset prices do automatically raise prices at the rate of inflation.Prices are also fixed for a quarter. Technically, firms must post prices before they see the period's shocks.Sticky wages, also with indexation. Households are monopoly suppliers of labor, and set wages Calvo-style like firms. (Later papers put all households into a union which does the wage setting.) Wages are also indexed; Households that don't get to reoptimize their wage still raise wages following inflation. Firms must borrow working capital to finance their wage bill a quarter in advance, and thus pay a interest on the wage bill. Money in the utility function, and money supply control. Monetary policy is a change in the money growth rate, not a pure interest rate target. Whew! But which of these ingredients are necessary, and which are just sufficient? Knowing the authors, I  strongly suspect that they are all necessary to get the suite of results. They don't add ingredients for show. But they want to match all of the impulse response functions, not just the inflation response. Perhaps a simpler set of ingredients could generate the inflation response while missing some of the others. Let's understand what each of these ingredients is doing, which will help us to see (if) they are necessary and essential to getting the desired result. I see a common theme in habit formation, adjustment costs that scale by investment growth, and indexation. These ingredients each add a derivative; they take a standard relationship between levels of economic variables and change it to one in growth rates. Each of consumption, investment, and inflation is a "jump variable" in standard economics, like stock prices. Consumption (roughly) jumps to the present value of future income. The level of investment is proportional to the stock price in the standard q theory, and jumps when there is new information. Iterating forward the new-Keynesian Phillips curve \(\pi_t = \beta E_t \pi_{t+1} + \kappa x_t\), inflation jumps to the discounted sum of future output gaps, \(\pi_t = E_t \sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^jx_{t+j}.\)  To produce responses in which output, consumption and investment as well as inflation rise slowly after a shock, we don't want levels of consumption, investment, and inflation to jump this way. Instead we want growth rates to do so. With standard utility, the consumer's linearized first order condition equates expected consumption growth to the interest rate, \( E_t (c_{t+1}/c_t) = \delta + r_t \) Habit, with \(b=1\) gives  \( E_t [(c_{t+1}-c_t)/(c_t-c_{t-1})] = \delta + r_t \). (I left out the strategic terms.) Mixing logs and levels a bit, you can see we put a growth rate in place of a level. (The paper has \(b=0.65\) .) An investment adjustment cost function with \(S(i_t/i_{t-1})\) rather than the standard \(S(i_t/k_t)\) puts a derivative in place of a level. Normally we tell a story that if you want a house painted, doubling the number of painters doesn't get the job done twice as fast because they get in each other's way. But you can double the number of painters overnight if you want to do so. Here the cost is on the increase in number of painters each day.   Indexation results in a Phillips curve with a lagged inflation term, and that gives "sticky inflation."  The Phillips curve of the model (32) and (33) is \[\pi_t = \frac{1}{1+\beta}\pi_{t-1} + \frac{\beta}{1+\beta}E_{t-1}\pi_{t+1} + (\text{constants}) E_{t-1}s_t\]where \(s_t\) are marginal costs (more later). The \(E_{t-1}\) come from the assumption that prices can't react to time \(t\) information. Iterate that forward to (33)\[\pi_t - \pi_{t-1} = (\text{constants}) E_{t-1}\sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^j s_{t+j}.\] We have successfully put the change in inflation in place of the level of inflation. The Phillips curve is anchored by real marginal costs, and they are not proportional to output in this model as they are in the textbook model above. That's important too. Instead,\[s_t = (\text{constants}) (r^k_t)^\alpha \left(\frac{W_t}{P_t}R_t\right)^{1-\alpha}\] where \(r^k\) is the return to capital \(W/P\) is the real wage and \(R\) is the nominal interest rate. The latter term crops up from the assumption that firms must borrow the wage bill one period in advance. This is an interesting ingredient. There is a lot of talk that higher interest rates raise costs for firms, and they are reducing output as a result. That might get us around some of the IS curve problems. But that's not how it works here. Here's how I think it works. Higher interest rates raise marginal costs, and thus push up current inflation relative to expected future inflation. The equilibrium-selection rules and the rule against instant price changes (coming up next) tie down current inflation, so the higher interest rates have to push down expected future inflation. CEE disagree (p. 28). Writing of an interest rate decline, so all the signs are opposite of my stories,  ... the interest rate appears in firms' marginal cost. Since the interest rate drops after an expansionary monetary policy shock, the model embeds a force that pushes marginal costs down for a period of time. Indeed, in the estimated benchmark model the effect is strong enough to induce a transient fall in inflation.But pushing marginal costs down lowers current inflation relative to future inflation -- they're looking at the same Phillips curve just above. It looks to me like they're confusing current with expected future inflation. Intuition is hard. There are plenty of Fisherian forces in this model that want lower interest rates to lower inflation. More deeply,  we see here a foundational trouble of the Phillips curve. It was originally a statistical relation between wage inflation and unemployment. It became a (weaker) statistical relation between price inflation and unemployment or the output gap. The new-Keynesian theory wants naturally to describe a relation between marginal costs and price changes, and it takes contortions to make output equal to marginal costs. Phillips curves fit the data terribly. So authors estimating Phillips curves (An early favorite by Tim Cogley and Argia Sbordone) go back, and separate marginal cost from output or employment. As CET write later, they "build features into the model which ensure that firms' marginal costs are nearly acyclical." That helps the fit, but it divorces the Phillips curve shifter variable from the business cycle! Standard doctrine says that for the Fed to lower inflation it must soften the economy and risk unemployment. Doves say don't do it, live with inflation to avoid that cost. Well, if the Phillips curve shifter is "acyclical" you have to throw all that out the window.  This shift also points to the central conundrum of the Phillips curve. Here it describes the adjustment of prices to wages or "costs" more generally. It fundamentally describes a relative price, not a price level. OK, but the phenomenon we want to explain is the common component, how all prices and wage tie together or equivalently the decline in the value of the currency, stripped of relative price movements. The central puzzle of macroeconomics is why the common component, a rise or fall of all prices and wages together, has anything to do with output, and for us how it is controlled by the Fed. Christiano Eichenbaum and Evans write (p.3) that "it is crucial to allow for variable capital utilization." I'll try explain  why in my own words. Without capital adjustment costs, any change in the real return leads to a big investment jump. \(r=f'(k)\) must jump and that takes a lot of extra \(k\). We add adjustment costs to tamp down the investment response. But now when there is any shock, capital can't adjust enough and there is a big rate of return response. So we need something that acts like a big jump in the capital stock to tamp down \(r=f'(k)\) variability, but not a big investment jump. Variable capital utilization acts like the big investment jump without us seeing a big investment jump. And all this is going to be important for inflation too. Remember the Phillips curve; if output jumps then inflation jumps too. Sticky wages are crucial, and indeed CEE report that they can dispense with sticky prices. One reason is that otherwise profits are countercyclical. In a boom, prices go up faster than wages so profits go up. With sticky prices and flexible wages you get the opposite sign. It's interesting that the "textbook" model has not moved this way. Again, we don't often enough write textbooks. Fixing prices and wages during the period of the shock by assuming price setters can't see the shock for a quarter has a direct effect: It stops any price or wage jumps during the quarter of the shock, as in my first graph. That's almost cheating. Note the VAR also has absolutely zero instantaneous inflation response. This too is by assumption. They "orthogonalize" the variables so that all the contemporaneous correlation between monetary policy shocks and inflation or output is considered part of the Fed's "rule" and none of it reflects within-quarter reaction of prices or quantities to the Fed's actions. Step back and admire. Given the project "find elaborations of the standard new-Keynesian model to match VAR impulse response functions" could you have come up with any of this? But back to our task. That's a lot of apparently necessary ingredients. And reading here or CEE's verbal intuition, the logic of this model is nothing like the standard simple intuition, which includes none of the necessary ingredients. Do we really need all of this to produce the basic pattern of monetary policy? As far as we know, we do. And hence, that pattern may not be as robust as it seems. For all of these ingredients are pretty, ... imaginative. Really, we are a long way from the Lucas/Prescott vision that macroeconomic models should be based on well tried and measured microeconomic ingredients that are believably invariant to changes in the policy regime. CEE argue hard for the plausibility of these microeconomic specifications (see especially the later CET Journal of Economic Perspectives article), but they have to try so hard precisely because the standard literature doesn't have any of these ingredients. The "level" rather than "growth rate" foundations of consumption, investment, and pricing decisions pervade microeconomics. Microeconomists worry about labor monopsony, not labor monopoly; firms set wages, households don't. (Christiano Eichenbam and Trabandt (2016) get wage stickiness from a more realistic search and matching model. Curiously, the one big labor union fiction is still the most common, though few private sector workers are unionized.) Firms don't borrow the wage bill a quarter ahead of time.  Very few prices and wages are indexed in the US. Like habits, perhaps these ingredients are simple stand ins for something else, but at some point we need to know what that something else is. That is especially true if one wants to do optimal policy or welfare analysis. Just how much economics must we reinvent to match this one response function? How far are we really from the ad-hoc ISLM equations that Sims (1980) destroyed? Sadly, subsequent literature doesn't help much (more below). Subsequent literature has mostly added ingredients, including heterogeneous agents (big these days), borrowing constraints, additional financial frictions (especially after 2008), zero bound constraints, QE, learning and complex expectations dynamics. (See CET 2018 JEP  for a good verbal survey.) The rewards in our profession go to those who add a new ingredient. It's very hard to publish papers that strip a model down to its basics. Editors don't count that as "new research," but just "exposition" below the prestige of their journals. Though boiling a model down to essentials is maybe more important in the end than adding more bells and whistles. This is about where we are. Despite the pretty response functions, I still score that we don't have a reliable, simple, economic model that produces the standard view of monetary policy. Mankiw and Reis, sticky expectations Mankiw and Reis (2002) expressed the challenge clearly over 20 years ago. In reference to the "standard" New-Keynesian Phillips curve \(\pi_t = \beta E_t \pi_{t+1} + \kappa x_t\) they write a beautiful and succinct paragraph: Ball [1994a] shows that the model yields the surprising result that announced, credible disinflations cause booms rather than recessions. Fuhrer and Moore [1995] argue that it cannot explain why inflation is so persistent. Mankiw [2001] notes that it has trouble explaining why shocks to monetary policy have a delayed and gradual effect on inflation. These problems appear to arise from the same source: although the price level is sticky in this model, the inflation rate can change quickly. By contrast, empirical analyses of the inflation process (e.g., Gordon [1997]) typically give a large role to "inflation inertia."At the cost of repetition, I emphasize the last sentence because it is so overlooked. Sticky prices are not sticky inflation. Ball already said this in 1994: Taylor (1979, 198) and Blanchard (1983, 1986) show that staggering produces inertia in the price level: prices just slowly to a fall in th money supply. ...Disinflation, however, is a change in the growth rate of money not a one-time shock to the level. In informal discussions, analysts often assume that the inertia result carries over from levels to growth rates -- that inflation adjusts slowly to a fall in money growth. As I see it, Mankiw and Reis generalize the Lucas (1972) Phillips curve. For Lucas, roughly, output is related to unexpected inflation\[\pi_t = E_{t-1}\pi_t + \kappa x_t.\] Firms don't see everyone else's prices in the period. Thus, when a firm sees an unexpected rise in prices, it doesn't know if it is a higher relative price or a higher general price level; the firm expands output based on how much it thinks the event might be a relative price increase.  I love this model for many reasons, but one, which seems to have fallen by the wayside, is that it explicitly founds the Phillips curve in firms' confusion about relative  prices vs. the price level, and thus faces up to the problem why should a rise in the price level have any real effects. Mankiw and Reis basically suppose that firms find out the general price level with lags, so output depends on inflation relative to a distributed lag of its expectations. It's clearest for the price level (p. 1300)\[p_t = \lambda\sum_{j=0}^\infty (1-\lambda)^j E_{t-j}(p_t + \alpha x_t).\] The inflation expression is \[\pi_t = \frac{\alpha \lambda}{1-\lambda}x_t + \lambda \sum_{j=0}^\infty (1-\lambda)^j E_{t-1-j}(\pi_t + \alpha \Delta x_t).\](Some of the complication is that you want it to be \(\pi_t = \sum_{j=0}^\infty E_{t-1-j}\pi_t + \kappa x_t\), but output doesn't enter that way.) This seems totally natural and sensible to me. What is a "period" anyway? It makes sense that firms learn heterogeneously whether a price increase is relative or price level. And it obviously solves the central persistence problem with the Lucas (1972) model, that it only produces a one-period output movement. Well, what's a period anyway? (Mankiw and Reis don't sell it this way, and actually don't cite Lucas at all. Curious.)  It's not immediately obvious that this curve solves the Ball puzzle and the declining inflation puzzle, and indeed one must put it in a full model to do so. Mankiw and Reis (2002) mix it with \(m_t + v = p_t + x_t\) and make some stylized analysis, but don't show how to put the idea in models such as I started with or make a plot.  Their less well known follow on paper  Sticky Information in General Equilibrium (2007) is much better for this purpose because they do show you how to put the idea in an explicit new-Keynesian model, like the one I started with.  They also add a Taylor rule, and an interest rate rather than money supply instrument, along with wage stickiness and a few other ingredients,. They show how to solve the model overcoming the problem that there are many lagged expectations as state variables. But here is the response to the monetary policy shock: Response to a Monetary Policy Shock, Mankiw and Reis (2007). Sadly they don't report how interest rates respond to the shock. I presume interest rates went down temporarily. Look: the inflation and output gap plots are about the same. Except for the slight delay going up, these are exactly the responses of the standard NK model. When output is high, inflation is high and declining.  The whole point was to produce a model in which high output level would correspond to rising inflation. Relative to the first graph, the main improvement is just a slight hump shape in both inflation and output responses. Describing the same model in "Pervasive Stickiness" (2006), Mankiw and Reis describe the desideratum well: The Acceleration Phenomenon....inflation tends to rise when the economy is booming and falls when economic activity is depressed. This is the central insight of the empirical literature on the Phillips curve. One simple way to illustrate this fact is to correlate the change in inflation, \(\pi_{t+2}-\pi_{t-2}\) with [the level of] output, \(y_t\), detrended with the HP filter. In U.S. quarterly data from 1954-Q3 to 2005-Q3, the correlation is 0.47. That is, the change in inflation is procyclical.Now look again at the graph. As far as I  can see, it's not there. Is this version of sticky inflation a bust, for this purpose? I still think it's a neat idea worth more exploration. But I thought so 20 years ago too.  Mankiw and Reis have a lot of citations but nobody followed them. Why not?  I suspect it's part of a general pattern that lots of great micro sticky price papers are not used because they don't produce an easy aggregate Phillips curve. If you want cites, make sure people can plug it in to Dynare. Mankiw and Reis' curve is pretty simple, but you still have to keep all past expectations around as a state variable. There may be alternative ways of doing that with modern computational technology, putting it in a Markov environment or cutting off the lags, everyone learns the price level after 5 years. Hank models have even bigger state spaces! Some more modelsWhat about within the Fed?  Chung,  Kiley, and  Laforte 2010, "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy: 2010 Version" is one such model.  (Thanks to Ben Moll, in a lecture slide titled "Effects of interest rate hike in U.S. Fed's own New Keynesian model") They describe it as This paper provides documentation for a large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy – the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization- based (FRB/EDO) model project. The model can be used to address a wide range of practical policy questions on a routine basis.Here are the central plots for our purpose: The response of interest rates and inflation to a monetary policy shock.  No long and variable lags here. Just as in the simple model, inflation jumps down on the day of the shock and then reverts. As with Mankiw and Reis, there is a tiny hump shape, but that's it. This is nothing like the Romer and Romer plot. Smets and Wouters (2007) "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach" is about as famous as Christiano Eichenbaum and Evans as a standard new-Keynesian model that supposedly matches data well. It "contains many shocks and frictions. It features sticky nominal price and wage settings that allow for backward inflation indexation, habit formation in consumption, and investment adjustment costs that create hump-shaped responses... and variable capital utilization and fixed costs in production"Here is their central graph of the response to a monetary policy shockAgain, there is a little hump-shape, but the overall picture is just like the one we started with. Inflation mostly jumps down immediately and then recovers; the interest rate shock leads to future inflation that is higher, not lower than current inflation. There are no lags from higher interest rates to future inflation declines. The major difference, I think, is that Smets and Wouters do not impose the restriction that inflation cannot jump immediately on either their theory or empirical work, and Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans impose that restriction in both places. This is important. In a new-Keynesian model some combination of state variables must jump on the day of the shock, as it is only saddle-path stable. If inflation can't move right away, that means something else does. Therefore, I think, CEE also preclude inflation jumping the next period. Comparing otherwise similar ingredients, it looks like this is the key ingredient for producing Romer-Romer like responses consistent with the belief in sticky inflation. But perhaps the original model and Smets-Wouters are right! I do not know what happens if you remove the CEE orthogonalization restriction and allow inflation to jump on the day of the shock in the date. That would rescue the new-Keynesian model, but it would destroy the belief in sticky inflation and long and variable lags. Closing thoughtsI'll reiterate the main point. As far as I can tell, there is no simple economic model that produces the standard belief. Now, maybe belief is right and models just have to catch up. It is interesting that there is so little effort going on to do this. As above, the vast outpouring of new-Keynesian modeling has been to add even more ingredients. In part, again, that's the natural pressures of journal publication. But I think it's also an honest feeling that after Christiano Eichenbaun and Evans, this is a solved problem and adding other ingredients is all there is to do. So part of the point of this post (and "Expectations and the neutrality of interest rates") is to argue that this is not a solved problem, and that removing ingredients to find the simplest economic model that can produce standard beliefs is a really important task.  Then, does the model incorporate anything at all of the standard intuition, or is it based on some different mechanism al together? These are first order important and unresolved questions!But for my lay readers, here is as far as I know where we are. If you, like the Fed, hold to standard beliefs that higher interest rates lower future output and inflation with long and variable lags, know there is no simple economic theory behind that belief, and certainly the standard story is not how economic models of the last four decades work. Update:I repeat a response to a comment below, because it is so important. I probably wasn't clear enough that the "problem" of high output with inflation falling rather than rising is a problem of models vs. traditional beliefs, rather than of models vs. facts. The point of the sequence of posts, really, is that the traditional beliefs are likely wrong. Inflation does not fall, following interest rate increases, with dependable, long, and perhaps variable lags. That belief is strong, but neither facts, empirical evidence, or theory supports it. ("Variable" is a great way to scrounge data to make it fit priors.) Indeed many successful disinflations like ends of hyperinflations feature a sigh of relief and output surge on the real side. 

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 도시설계학전공, 2020. 8. 김세훈. ; This dissertation investigated the spatial characteristics and social impact of 'urban shrinkage' and 'housing abandonment' in four separate but related papers focusing on the following sub-themes: (1) major paths of abandonment in the East Asian context, (2) distribution pattern and characteristics in terms of socio-spatial inequalities, (3) residents' perceptions of vacant houses, and (4) neighborhood-specific clusters of vacant houses. Studies have been conducted in Incheon, one of the cities experiencing both city-wide growth and the decline of the inner city. Paper 1_ Housing abandonment in shrinking cities of East Asia: Case study in Incheon, South Korea Despite growing signs of urban shrinkage in countries such as Korea, Japan and China, few studies have examined the generalizable pattern of urban shrinkage and its relationship to the characteristics of housing abandonment in the East Asian context. This study explores five major paths that may explain the emergence of vacant houses in declining inner-city areas, based on empirical observations in the city of Incheon, South Korea. The paths are: (1) strong government-led new built-up area development plans (pull factor for population movement); (2) delay and cancellation of indiscriminate redevelopment projects (push factor for population movement); (3) initial poor development and concentration of substandard houses; (4) aging of the elderly population; and (5) the outflow of infrastructure and services. These paths, also found in Japan or China, are expected to be combined in a local context, leading to more serious housing abandonment. This study suggests that it is important to take appropriate countermeasures based on the identification of the paths causing vacant houses. Paper 2_ Planned inequality of the locational pattern of housing abandonment in shrinking inner-city areas of Incheon, South Korea Housing abandonment is one of the most distinctive features of urban shrinkage associated with depopulation and a loss of neighborhood attractiveness. Previous studies investigated the scale and the process of housing abandonment in the former industrialized cities in the United States and Europe. Yet very little was known about the characteristics of housing abandonment in cities that have experienced rapid urbanization in terms of spatial unevenness. In the study, based on a unique parcel-level dataset of vacant houses in Incheon, South Korea, the firth's logistic regression analysis revealed that the building and parcel, urban neighborhood, economic, and socio-demographic determinants might explain the spatially selective occurrence of housing abandonment at intra-urban level. The results indicated that older, smaller, and inaccessible residential buildings developed with lower quality during the rapid urbanization period were more vulnerable to abandonment. The failure of indiscriminately planned redevelopment projects under the growth-oriented policies contributed to housing abandonment in concentrated areas. With the devastation of manufacturing and commercial areas due to the out-migration of households to the new suburbs, socially unsustainable environments, such as the concentration of elderly and less-educated people in the inner city, were significantly associated with the emergence of abandoned houses. Paper 3_ Perceptions of abandonment: Analyzing subjective perception on vacant houses using the photo-elicitation method Vacant houses have been regarded, in terms of the broken windows theory, as one of the signs of neighborhood disorder inducing prevalent violent crimes. Previous studies, mostly in the fields of public health and criminology, have indicated that vacant houses not only pose a threat to the physical health of residents but also deteriorate their mental health. However, little is known about the residents' experiences and interpretations of vacant houses in declining neighborhoods. In this study, the perceptions of vacant houses in shrinking inner-city neighborhoods of Incheon, South Korea, were analyzed utilizing the semi-structured questionnaire and photo-elicitation methods. The surveyed residents expressed that they had been suffering from persistent daily life problems, not from the issues caused by the simple presence of vacant houses. The survey revealed that the residents' degree of understanding and responsibility for neighborhoods and the level of experiences of and information on vacant houses affected subjective perceptions of vacant houses. Additionally, the photo-elicitation method involving both resident and non-resident groups revealed that the fear of vacant houses arose not only from the visible presence of abandonment but also from invisible wrongdoers or outsiders. The perception of how abandonment is managed also determined their feelings and responses toward vacant houses. The results suggest that suitable vacant house management and usage measures in shrinking cities should be provided for the remaining residents with pieces of broken windows. Paper 4_ The causes and characteristics of housing abandonment in an inner-city neighborhood: Focused on the Sungui-dong area, Nam-gu, Incheon The study aims to analyze the causes and characteristics of housing abandonment at a micro level and to draw the implications for urban design in the declining inner-city neighborhoods of Sungui-dong, Nam-gu, Incheon. This study created a theoretical frame explaining the mechanism between urban shrinkage and housing abandonment, and identified the spatial distribution pattern, characteristics, and causality of housing abandonment, applying qualitative methods. 80 vacant houses in Sungui-dong were distributed intensively in the four clusters. The results indicated that the different physical conditions of each cluster acted as driving forces influencing the pattern of housing abandonment. The clusters with poor physical environments, such as narrow streets and small parcels, attracted redevelopment's cancellation and spatial concentration of socially-vulnerable populations, leading to the proliferation of vacant houses. The maintenance of public areas surrounding vacant houses played a decisive role in the occurrence of additional decline and the formation of stigmatized neighborhood images. Additionally, residents perceived the seriousness of housing abandonment differently depending on their residence locations and social characteristics. Further studies could aim to conduct an in-depth analysis of the urban spatial characteristics of housing abandonment, prepare public domain management plans, and identify residents' awareness and behavior. ; 도시쇠퇴는 전 세계 수많은 도시들이 경험하고 있는 가장 두드러지는 도시현상들 중 하나이다. 도시쇠퇴는 공통적이면서도 차별화된 세계적 현상으로, 경제적·사회적·물리적 측면에서 특정 개발 논리를 따르는 한편, 국가 및 도시에 따라 다양한 동기, 유형, 접근방식을 가진다. 서구 도시들에서는 탈산업화, 교외화, 인구감소가 쇠퇴의 주요 패턴으로 이해되어 왔다. 도시쇠퇴의 가장 심각하고 명백한 공간적 발현으로는 주택 포기, 즉 빈집을 꼽을 수 있다. 빈집은 도시쇠퇴와의 하향적 악순환의 관계 안에서, 물리적 환경의 악화, 지역 활력도의 저하, 부동산 가치의 감소, 관리비용의 증가 등을 통해 추가적인 쇠퇴를 유도한다. 빈집은 건물 자체로는 쇠퇴도시의 황폐화된 건조환경을 나타내지만, 넓게는 분포패턴을 통해 구시가지와 신시가지 사이의 공간사회적 불균형을 드러낸다. 더불어 장기간 방치된 빈집은 쇠퇴근린에 자의적 또는 타의적으로 남겨진 주민들의 일상생활에 서서히 침투하여, 신체적 및 정신적 건강을 포함한 삶의 질에 악영향을 미친다. 한국의 경우, 통계청에 따르면 2017년 기준으로 총 주택 수의 7.4%에 해당하는 약 130만 채의 빈집이 집계되었으며, 이는 2010년의 약 80만 채 대비 59.3%가 증가한 수치였다. 한국 정부는 빈집 발생을 심각한 사회현상으로 인지함에 따라, 2017년에 「빈집 및 소규모주택 정비에 관한 특례법」을 제정하였다. 그런데 한국 쇠퇴도시 내 빈집현상에 대한 포괄적 논의의 필요성과 체계적 대책마련의 시급성에도 불구하고, 지금까지 대부분의 관련 연구들은 미국 또는 유럽의 사례들 그리고 그들의 시각에 초점을 맞춰왔다. 또한 지금까지 추진된 빈집 관련 정책 및 사업들은 단기적이고 일시적인 대책들을 제시하는 것을 우선시 해왔다. 이에 본 논문은 도시쇠퇴의 시기, 속도, 양상에 있어 서구와는 구별되는 징후들을 드러내는 동아시아 국가들, 그 중에서도 특히 한국 인천에서의 실증적 관찰을 기반으로 경로, 원인, 특성, 영향력, 주민인식을 포함한 빈집의 역학에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 결과적으로, 다음의 네 개의 연구를 통해 쇠퇴도시 내 악순환의 고리를 끊고, 빈집을 바람직하게 관리·활용하며, 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질을 개선하기 위한 토대를 마련하고자 했다. 첫 번째 연구는 아직까지 동아시아 맥락에서 도시쇠퇴의 일반화 가능한 패턴과 이것의 빈집 발생의 특성과의 관계에 대해 조사한 연구는 거의 없다는 점에 착안하여, 한국 인천에서의 경험적 관찰을 기반으로 쇠퇴하는 구시가지에서 빈집 발생의 원인 및 양상을 설명하는 다섯 가지 주요 경로들을 분석하고자 했다. 먼저는 도시쇠퇴의 구조적 문제에 부정적으로 영향을 준 두 개의 정치경제적 측면의 경로들로, 각각 강력한 정부 주도의 신시가지 개발 및 공공기관의 이전 그리고 구시가지에서 무차별적으로 시행된 정비사업의 지연 및 취소에 해당되었다. 빈집 발생과 관련된 신시가지와 구시가지 사이의 인구이동에 있어 전자는 유인요인, 후자는 배출요인으로 작용하였으며, 특히 후자는 빈집 클러스터를 야기하는 역할을 하였다. 세 번째 경로는 압축 성장 하의 급격한 도시화의 기간 동안 불충분한 기반시설을 바탕으로 개발된 열악한 건물들과 이들의 가속화된 노후화와 관련되었다. 네 번째 경로는 급격한 사회구조의 변화 및 심각한 고령화 현상에서 비롯되었으며, 유지관리의 부족으로 황폐화된 건조환경에 취약계층이 집중됨에 따라 공간적 불균형이 고착화되고 새로운 인구의 유입을 저해하였다. 마지막 경로는 낙인 찍힌 지역에서 기반시설, 서비스, 젊은 인구층의 유출로 인해 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질이 저하되고 빈집 발생의 악순환이 지속됨을 드러내었다. 각각의 경로들은 지역적 맥락에서 서로 밀접하게 관계를 맺고 동시에 그 영향력 행사함으로써, 보다 극심한 빈집 문제를 초래할 것으로 예상되었다. 더불어 동아시아적 관점에서, 이와 같은 경로들은 국가주도의 도시개발을 통한 고도경제성장을 경험한 일본과 중국에서도 유사하게 발견됨과 동시에, 도시계획 관련 법 및 정책, 도시개발의 시기 및 방식에 따라 그 양상의 차이를 보임을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 다섯 가지 경로들에 대한 탐색은 빈집의 주요 원인에 따라 발생 특성이 상이하기에, 적절한 빈집 관리 방안의 마련과 추후 급증에 대한 예방을 위해서는 빈집 발생의 주요 경로들과 그들의 상호관계를 이해하는 것이 중요함을 시사하였다. 두 번째 연구는 필지 수준의 데이터를 기반으로 퍼스(firth)의 로지스틱 회귀분석을 활용하여 짧은 시간 내에 도시화 및 경제성장을 경험한 지역에서 빈집 발생이 공간적 불균형의 측면에서 어떤 특성을 지니는지에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 2017년 기준으로, 연구 대상지인 인천 구시가지에는 인천 전체 빈집의 3/4에 해당하는 약 1,600여 채의 빈집이 위치했으며, 건물 및 필지, 도시근린, 경제적, 인구사회적 측면의 결정요인들이 빈집의 공간선택적인 발생 패턴을 설명할 수 있을 것이라 예상되었다. 분석결과에 따르면, 급속한 도시화의 시기에 저품질로 개발된 보다 오래되고, 규모가 작고, 접근성이 떨어지는 주거용 건물들이 빈집으로의 전환에 더 취약했다. 성장 지향적 정책 하에서 무차별적으로 계획된 정비사업의 실패는 빈집 밀집지역을 초래했으며, 실제 구시가지 빈집의 약 64%가 정비구역에 위치했다. 제조업의 영세화와 상업지역의 황폐화는 지역 경제활동과 커뮤니티의 활력을 약화시킴으로써, 인구유출에 기반한 빈집 발생을 촉진시켰다. 더불어, 구시가지로의 노인 및 저학력 인구의 집중과 같은 사회적으로 지속 불가능한 환경의 조성은 근린의 낙인 찍힌 이미지를 형성함과 동시에, 고학력의 젊은 인구층의 이탈을 통한 빈집 출현에 기여했다. 본 연구는 앞선 분석결과를 기반으로 도시설계 및 계획의 관점에서 더욱 심도 있게 논의되어야 할 세 가지 이슈를 제시하였다. 첫째, 뚜렷한 공간적 불균형이 도시 내, 구시가지 내, 근린 내, 심지어 도시블록 규모와 같이 점점 더 작은 공간단위에서 발현되고 있다는 것이다. 둘째, 구시가지 내에서 지연되거나 취소된 정비사업 구역이 빈집 밀집지역의 온상이 되고 있다는 것이다. 셋째, 이미 잘 알려진 경제적 불평등 및 이와 관련된 주거지 분리에 더해, 왜곡된 인구구조가 사회적 지속가능성을 위협하는 공간적 양극화를 심화시키고 있다는 것이다. 세 번째 연구는 지속적·점진적인 쇠퇴를 경험하는 도시에서 도시설계 및 계획의 렌즈를 통해 빈집에 대한 주민들의 경험 및 해석에 대해 탐색한 연구는 거의 없다는 점에 착안하여, 설문조사 및 사진유도기법(photo-elicitation)을 활용하여 인천 남구의 쇠퇴하는 구시가지 근린에서 빈집에 대한 인식을 분석하고자 했다. 지금까지 빈집은 주로 공중보건 및 범죄학의 분야에서 깨진 유리창 이론의 관점을 통해, 폭력범죄의 만연을 유도하는 근린 무질서의 징후들 중 하나로 간주되어 왔다. 하지만 본 연구는 무질서에서 범죄로의 전환 가능성, 무질서가 발생하는 지역의 주요 인구사회학적 및 건조환경의 특성을 검토함으로써, 이 이론을 한국의 쇠퇴도시에서 재맥락화 하고자 했다. 연구의 첫 번째 단계에서는 인천 남구의 93명의 주민들을 대상으로 빈집 인식과 관련된 설문조사를 진행하였다. 빈집에 대한 인식은 신체적 및 정신적 건강, 행동적 대응, 공동체 활동에의 참여의 세 가지 측면을 통해 확인되었으며, 인구사회학적 특성, 개인적인 경험, 공동체 상호작용과 관련된 요인들이 인식의 이질성을 형성하는 데 관여했다. 두 번째 단계에서는 인천 남구 숭의동의 주민 10명과 비주민 10명을 대상으로 사진유도조사를 실시함으로써, 총 13장의 빈집 사진에 대해 두 집단이 두려움을 느끼는 정도와 이유에 대해 비교하였다. 연구결과는 쇠퇴도시 내 빈집들을 효율적으로 관리하고 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질을 개선하기 위해 다음의 네 가지 이슈들을 제시하였다. 첫째, 주민들은 지속적인 쇠퇴를 경험하는 구시가지 근린에서 강력범죄보다는 고착화된 빈집들에서 기인한 쓰레기, 먼지, 악취 등의 일상생활의 문제들로부터 끈질기게 영향을 받아왔다. 둘째, 근린에 대한 이해 및 책임의 정도, 빈집에 대한 경험 및 정보의 수준이 빈집에 대한 주민인식에 있어 차이를 형성했다. 셋째, 단순히 빈집의 존재가 아닌, 건조환경 측면에서 관리의 유무를 암시하는 물리적 요소들이 빈집에 대한 감정 및 대응을 결정지었다. 넷째, 빈집에 대한 두려움의 감정은 가시적인 건조환경뿐만 아니라 비가시적인 사회적 환경에서도 기인했다. 네 번째 연구는 빈집의 체계적인 관리 및 활용을 위해서는 도시근린과 같은 미시적 공간 차원에서의 빈집 발생 메커니즘에 대한 파악이 필수적이라는 점을 바탕으로, 쇠퇴현상을 겪고 있는 인천 남구 숭의동 내 근린, 특히 빈집 클러스터를 중심으로 빈집 발생의 원인 및 특성을 분석하고자 했다. 정성적인 연구 방법론을 활용하여 도시쇠퇴와 빈집 사이의 반복 및 누적되는 악순환의 고리를 드러내는 메커니즘을 이론적 틀로 정리한 후, 빈집의 분포 현황 및 특성, 그리고 인과관계를 탐색하였다. 남구의 공가현황 자료 및 현장답사를 기반으로, 숭의동에는 약 80여 채의 빈집이 4개의 클러스터에 집중 분포되어 있는 것을 확인하였다. 각 클러스터의 서로 다른 건축적·도시공간적 특성들이 빈집 발생 양상의 차이를 만들어내는 요인으로 작용하고 있었다. 클러스터 1은 열악한 물리적 환경으로 인해 재개발 취소의 영향력이 심화된 구역이었으며, 클러스터 2는 양호한 물리적 환경을 보유했지만 재개발에 대한 기대 심리를 기반으로 빈집이 발생하게 된 구역이었다. 클러스터 1과 2의 경우 동일하게 재정비촉진지구로 지정된 후 해제되었지만, 기존의 도시·건축적 특성의 차이로 인해 빈집의 밀도, 건물 및 가로의 상태에 있어 서로 다른 양상과 영향력을 드러냈다. 더불어 클러스터 3은 사회취약계층의 공간적 집중과 가로변 건물들의 개보수로 인해 상대적 쇠퇴가 심화된 구역이었으며, 클러스터 4는 열악한 기반시설 및 대규모 기피시설이 빈집 발생을 유도한 구역이었다. 연구결과에 따르면, 폐쇄적 블록, 협소한 가로, 소규모 필지 등의 열악한 물리적 환경이 재정비촉진지구의 해제, 사회취약계층의 공간적 집중 등과 결합됨에 따라 빈집현상의 심화 및 확산으로 연결되었다. 또한 빈집 인근 공적영역의 유지관리 여부가 추가적인 쇠퇴의 진행 및 쇠퇴 이미지 형성에 중요한 역학을 하고 있었다. 한편 연구결과를 통해 거주위치 및 거주특성에 따라 주민들이 빈집문제의 심각성을 인식하고 대응하는데 있어 차이가 존재함을 확인할 수 있었다. ; Introduction 1 Chapter 1. Housing abandonment in shrinking cities of East Asia: Case study in Incheon, South Korea 5 1. Introduction 5 2. Theoretical Framework and Research Site 10 3. Results 14 4. Discussion 26 5. Conclusion 35 Chapter 2. Planned inequality of the locational pattern of housing abandonment in shrinking inner-city areas of Incheon, South Korea 37 1. Introduction 37 2. Literature Review 41 3. Data and Methods 47 4. Results 58 5. Discussion 70 6. Conclusion 76 Chapter 3. Perceptions of abandonment: Analyzing subjective perception on vacant houses using the photo-elicitation method 78 1. Introduction 78 2. Literature Review 83 3. Methods 90 4. Results 96 5. Discussion 119 Chapter 4. The causes and characteristics of housing abandonment in an inner-city neighborhood: Focused on the Sungui-dong area, Nam-gu, Incheon 125 1. Introduction 125 2. Theoretical Consideration 136 3. Results 143 4. Discussion 162 5. Conclusion 164 Conclusion 167 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 174 REFERENCES 175 ABSTRACT IN KOREAN 184 ; Doctor

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 도시설계학전공, 2020. 8. 김세훈. ; This dissertation investigated the spatial characteristics and social impact of 'urban shrinkage' and 'housing abandonment' in four separate but related papers focusing on the following sub-themes: (1) major paths of abandonment in the East Asian context, (2) distribution pattern and characteristics in terms of socio-spatial inequalities, (3) residents' perceptions of vacant houses, and (4) neighborhood-specific clusters of vacant houses. Studies have been conducted in Incheon, one of the cities experiencing both city-wide growth and the decline of the inner city. Paper 1_ Housing abandonment in shrinking cities of East Asia: Case study in Incheon, South Korea Despite growing signs of urban shrinkage in countries such as Korea, Japan and China, few studies have examined the generalizable pattern of urban shrinkage and its relationship to the characteristics of housing abandonment in the East Asian context. This study explores five major paths that may explain the emergence of vacant houses in declining inner-city areas, based on empirical observations in the city of Incheon, South Korea. The paths are: (1) strong government-led new built-up area development plans (pull factor for population movement); (2) delay and cancellation of indiscriminate redevelopment projects (push factor for population movement); (3) initial poor development and concentration of substandard houses; (4) aging of the elderly population; and (5) the outflow of infrastructure and services. These paths, also found in Japan or China, are expected to be combined in a local context, leading to more serious housing abandonment. This study suggests that it is important to take appropriate countermeasures based on the identification of the paths causing vacant houses. Paper 2_ Planned inequality of the locational pattern of housing abandonment in shrinking inner-city areas of Incheon, South Korea Housing abandonment is one of the most distinctive features of urban shrinkage associated with depopulation and a loss of neighborhood attractiveness. Previous studies investigated the scale and the process of housing abandonment in the former industrialized cities in the United States and Europe. Yet very little was known about the characteristics of housing abandonment in cities that have experienced rapid urbanization in terms of spatial unevenness. In the study, based on a unique parcel-level dataset of vacant houses in Incheon, South Korea, the firth's logistic regression analysis revealed that the building and parcel, urban neighborhood, economic, and socio-demographic determinants might explain the spatially selective occurrence of housing abandonment at intra-urban level. The results indicated that older, smaller, and inaccessible residential buildings developed with lower quality during the rapid urbanization period were more vulnerable to abandonment. The failure of indiscriminately planned redevelopment projects under the growth-oriented policies contributed to housing abandonment in concentrated areas. With the devastation of manufacturing and commercial areas due to the out-migration of households to the new suburbs, socially unsustainable environments, such as the concentration of elderly and less-educated people in the inner city, were significantly associated with the emergence of abandoned houses. Paper 3_ Perceptions of abandonment: Analyzing subjective perception on vacant houses using the photo-elicitation method Vacant houses have been regarded, in terms of the broken windows theory, as one of the signs of neighborhood disorder inducing prevalent violent crimes. Previous studies, mostly in the fields of public health and criminology, have indicated that vacant houses not only pose a threat to the physical health of residents but also deteriorate their mental health. However, little is known about the residents' experiences and interpretations of vacant houses in declining neighborhoods. In this study, the perceptions of vacant houses in shrinking inner-city neighborhoods of Incheon, South Korea, were analyzed utilizing the semi-structured questionnaire and photo-elicitation methods. The surveyed residents expressed that they had been suffering from persistent daily life problems, not from the issues caused by the simple presence of vacant houses. The survey revealed that the residents' degree of understanding and responsibility for neighborhoods and the level of experiences of and information on vacant houses affected subjective perceptions of vacant houses. Additionally, the photo-elicitation method involving both resident and non-resident groups revealed that the fear of vacant houses arose not only from the visible presence of abandonment but also from invisible wrongdoers or outsiders. The perception of how abandonment is managed also determined their feelings and responses toward vacant houses. The results suggest that suitable vacant house management and usage measures in shrinking cities should be provided for the remaining residents with pieces of broken windows. Paper 4_ The causes and characteristics of housing abandonment in an inner-city neighborhood: Focused on the Sungui-dong area, Nam-gu, Incheon The study aims to analyze the causes and characteristics of housing abandonment at a micro level and to draw the implications for urban design in the declining inner-city neighborhoods of Sungui-dong, Nam-gu, Incheon. This study created a theoretical frame explaining the mechanism between urban shrinkage and housing abandonment, and identified the spatial distribution pattern, characteristics, and causality of housing abandonment, applying qualitative methods. 80 vacant houses in Sungui-dong were distributed intensively in the four clusters. The results indicated that the different physical conditions of each cluster acted as driving forces influencing the pattern of housing abandonment. The clusters with poor physical environments, such as narrow streets and small parcels, attracted redevelopment's cancellation and spatial concentration of socially-vulnerable populations, leading to the proliferation of vacant houses. The maintenance of public areas surrounding vacant houses played a decisive role in the occurrence of additional decline and the formation of stigmatized neighborhood images. Additionally, residents perceived the seriousness of housing abandonment differently depending on their residence locations and social characteristics. Further studies could aim to conduct an in-depth analysis of the urban spatial characteristics of housing abandonment, prepare public domain management plans, and identify residents' awareness and behavior. ; 도시쇠퇴는 전 세계 수많은 도시들이 경험하고 있는 가장 두드러지는 도시현상들 중 하나이다. 도시쇠퇴는 공통적이면서도 차별화된 세계적 현상으로, 경제적·사회적·물리적 측면에서 특정 개발 논리를 따르는 한편, 국가 및 도시에 따라 다양한 동기, 유형, 접근방식을 가진다. 서구 도시들에서는 탈산업화, 교외화, 인구감소가 쇠퇴의 주요 패턴으로 이해되어 왔다. 도시쇠퇴의 가장 심각하고 명백한 공간적 발현으로는 주택 포기, 즉 빈집을 꼽을 수 있다. 빈집은 도시쇠퇴와의 하향적 악순환의 관계 안에서, 물리적 환경의 악화, 지역 활력도의 저하, 부동산 가치의 감소, 관리비용의 증가 등을 통해 추가적인 쇠퇴를 유도한다. 빈집은 건물 자체로는 쇠퇴도시의 황폐화된 건조환경을 나타내지만, 넓게는 분포패턴을 통해 구시가지와 신시가지 사이의 공간사회적 불균형을 드러낸다. 더불어 장기간 방치된 빈집은 쇠퇴근린에 자의적 또는 타의적으로 남겨진 주민들의 일상생활에 서서히 침투하여, 신체적 및 정신적 건강을 포함한 삶의 질에 악영향을 미친다. 한국의 경우, 통계청에 따르면 2017년 기준으로 총 주택 수의 7.4%에 해당하는 약 130만 채의 빈집이 집계되었으며, 이는 2010년의 약 80만 채 대비 59.3%가 증가한 수치였다. 한국 정부는 빈집 발생을 심각한 사회현상으로 인지함에 따라, 2017년에 「빈집 및 소규모주택 정비에 관한 특례법」을 제정하였다. 그런데 한국 쇠퇴도시 내 빈집현상에 대한 포괄적 논의의 필요성과 체계적 대책마련의 시급성에도 불구하고, 지금까지 대부분의 관련 연구들은 미국 또는 유럽의 사례들 그리고 그들의 시각에 초점을 맞춰왔다. 또한 지금까지 추진된 빈집 관련 정책 및 사업들은 단기적이고 일시적인 대책들을 제시하는 것을 우선시 해왔다. 이에 본 논문은 도시쇠퇴의 시기, 속도, 양상에 있어 서구와는 구별되는 징후들을 드러내는 동아시아 국가들, 그 중에서도 특히 한국 인천에서의 실증적 관찰을 기반으로 경로, 원인, 특성, 영향력, 주민인식을 포함한 빈집의 역학에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 결과적으로, 다음의 네 개의 연구를 통해 쇠퇴도시 내 악순환의 고리를 끊고, 빈집을 바람직하게 관리·활용하며, 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질을 개선하기 위한 토대를 마련하고자 했다. 첫 번째 연구는 아직까지 동아시아 맥락에서 도시쇠퇴의 일반화 가능한 패턴과 이것의 빈집 발생의 특성과의 관계에 대해 조사한 연구는 거의 없다는 점에 착안하여, 한국 인천에서의 경험적 관찰을 기반으로 쇠퇴하는 구시가지에서 빈집 발생의 원인 및 양상을 설명하는 다섯 가지 주요 경로들을 분석하고자 했다. 먼저는 도시쇠퇴의 구조적 문제에 부정적으로 영향을 준 두 개의 정치경제적 측면의 경로들로, 각각 강력한 정부 주도의 신시가지 개발 및 공공기관의 이전 그리고 구시가지에서 무차별적으로 시행된 정비사업의 지연 및 취소에 해당되었다. 빈집 발생과 관련된 신시가지와 구시가지 사이의 인구이동에 있어 전자는 유인요인, 후자는 배출요인으로 작용하였으며, 특히 후자는 빈집 클러스터를 야기하는 역할을 하였다. 세 번째 경로는 압축 성장 하의 급격한 도시화의 기간 동안 불충분한 기반시설을 바탕으로 개발된 열악한 건물들과 이들의 가속화된 노후화와 관련되었다. 네 번째 경로는 급격한 사회구조의 변화 및 심각한 고령화 현상에서 비롯되었으며, 유지관리의 부족으로 황폐화된 건조환경에 취약계층이 집중됨에 따라 공간적 불균형이 고착화되고 새로운 인구의 유입을 저해하였다. 마지막 경로는 낙인 찍힌 지역에서 기반시설, 서비스, 젊은 인구층의 유출로 인해 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질이 저하되고 빈집 발생의 악순환이 지속됨을 드러내었다. 각각의 경로들은 지역적 맥락에서 서로 밀접하게 관계를 맺고 동시에 그 영향력 행사함으로써, 보다 극심한 빈집 문제를 초래할 것으로 예상되었다. 더불어 동아시아적 관점에서, 이와 같은 경로들은 국가주도의 도시개발을 통한 고도경제성장을 경험한 일본과 중국에서도 유사하게 발견됨과 동시에, 도시계획 관련 법 및 정책, 도시개발의 시기 및 방식에 따라 그 양상의 차이를 보임을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 다섯 가지 경로들에 대한 탐색은 빈집의 주요 원인에 따라 발생 특성이 상이하기에, 적절한 빈집 관리 방안의 마련과 추후 급증에 대한 예방을 위해서는 빈집 발생의 주요 경로들과 그들의 상호관계를 이해하는 것이 중요함을 시사하였다. 두 번째 연구는 필지 수준의 데이터를 기반으로 퍼스(firth)의 로지스틱 회귀분석을 활용하여 짧은 시간 내에 도시화 및 경제성장을 경험한 지역에서 빈집 발생이 공간적 불균형의 측면에서 어떤 특성을 지니는지에 대해 분석하고자 했다. 2017년 기준으로, 연구 대상지인 인천 구시가지에는 인천 전체 빈집의 3/4에 해당하는 약 1,600여 채의 빈집이 위치했으며, 건물 및 필지, 도시근린, 경제적, 인구사회적 측면의 결정요인들이 빈집의 공간선택적인 발생 패턴을 설명할 수 있을 것이라 예상되었다. 분석결과에 따르면, 급속한 도시화의 시기에 저품질로 개발된 보다 오래되고, 규모가 작고, 접근성이 떨어지는 주거용 건물들이 빈집으로의 전환에 더 취약했다. 성장 지향적 정책 하에서 무차별적으로 계획된 정비사업의 실패는 빈집 밀집지역을 초래했으며, 실제 구시가지 빈집의 약 64%가 정비구역에 위치했다. 제조업의 영세화와 상업지역의 황폐화는 지역 경제활동과 커뮤니티의 활력을 약화시킴으로써, 인구유출에 기반한 빈집 발생을 촉진시켰다. 더불어, 구시가지로의 노인 및 저학력 인구의 집중과 같은 사회적으로 지속 불가능한 환경의 조성은 근린의 낙인 찍힌 이미지를 형성함과 동시에, 고학력의 젊은 인구층의 이탈을 통한 빈집 출현에 기여했다. 본 연구는 앞선 분석결과를 기반으로 도시설계 및 계획의 관점에서 더욱 심도 있게 논의되어야 할 세 가지 이슈를 제시하였다. 첫째, 뚜렷한 공간적 불균형이 도시 내, 구시가지 내, 근린 내, 심지어 도시블록 규모와 같이 점점 더 작은 공간단위에서 발현되고 있다는 것이다. 둘째, 구시가지 내에서 지연되거나 취소된 정비사업 구역이 빈집 밀집지역의 온상이 되고 있다는 것이다. 셋째, 이미 잘 알려진 경제적 불평등 및 이와 관련된 주거지 분리에 더해, 왜곡된 인구구조가 사회적 지속가능성을 위협하는 공간적 양극화를 심화시키고 있다는 것이다. 세 번째 연구는 지속적·점진적인 쇠퇴를 경험하는 도시에서 도시설계 및 계획의 렌즈를 통해 빈집에 대한 주민들의 경험 및 해석에 대해 탐색한 연구는 거의 없다는 점에 착안하여, 설문조사 및 사진유도기법(photo-elicitation)을 활용하여 인천 남구의 쇠퇴하는 구시가지 근린에서 빈집에 대한 인식을 분석하고자 했다. 지금까지 빈집은 주로 공중보건 및 범죄학의 분야에서 깨진 유리창 이론의 관점을 통해, 폭력범죄의 만연을 유도하는 근린 무질서의 징후들 중 하나로 간주되어 왔다. 하지만 본 연구는 무질서에서 범죄로의 전환 가능성, 무질서가 발생하는 지역의 주요 인구사회학적 및 건조환경의 특성을 검토함으로써, 이 이론을 한국의 쇠퇴도시에서 재맥락화 하고자 했다. 연구의 첫 번째 단계에서는 인천 남구의 93명의 주민들을 대상으로 빈집 인식과 관련된 설문조사를 진행하였다. 빈집에 대한 인식은 신체적 및 정신적 건강, 행동적 대응, 공동체 활동에의 참여의 세 가지 측면을 통해 확인되었으며, 인구사회학적 특성, 개인적인 경험, 공동체 상호작용과 관련된 요인들이 인식의 이질성을 형성하는 데 관여했다. 두 번째 단계에서는 인천 남구 숭의동의 주민 10명과 비주민 10명을 대상으로 사진유도조사를 실시함으로써, 총 13장의 빈집 사진에 대해 두 집단이 두려움을 느끼는 정도와 이유에 대해 비교하였다. 연구결과는 쇠퇴도시 내 빈집들을 효율적으로 관리하고 남아있는 주민들의 삶의 질을 개선하기 위해 다음의 네 가지 이슈들을 제시하였다. 첫째, 주민들은 지속적인 쇠퇴를 경험하는 구시가지 근린에서 강력범죄보다는 고착화된 빈집들에서 기인한 쓰레기, 먼지, 악취 등의 일상생활의 문제들로부터 끈질기게 영향을 받아왔다. 둘째, 근린에 대한 이해 및 책임의 정도, 빈집에 대한 경험 및 정보의 수준이 빈집에 대한 주민인식에 있어 차이를 형성했다. 셋째, 단순히 빈집의 존재가 아닌, 건조환경 측면에서 관리의 유무를 암시하는 물리적 요소들이 빈집에 대한 감정 및 대응을 결정지었다. 넷째, 빈집에 대한 두려움의 감정은 가시적인 건조환경뿐만 아니라 비가시적인 사회적 환경에서도 기인했다. 네 번째 연구는 빈집의 체계적인 관리 및 활용을 위해서는 도시근린과 같은 미시적 공간 차원에서의 빈집 발생 메커니즘에 대한 파악이 필수적이라는 점을 바탕으로, 쇠퇴현상을 겪고 있는 인천 남구 숭의동 내 근린, 특히 빈집 클러스터를 중심으로 빈집 발생의 원인 및 특성을 분석하고자 했다. 정성적인 연구 방법론을 활용하여 도시쇠퇴와 빈집 사이의 반복 및 누적되는 악순환의 고리를 드러내는 메커니즘을 이론적 틀로 정리한 후, 빈집의 분포 현황 및 특성, 그리고 인과관계를 탐색하였다. 남구의 공가현황 자료 및 현장답사를 기반으로, 숭의동에는 약 80여 채의 빈집이 4개의 클러스터에 집중 분포되어 있는 것을 확인하였다. 각 클러스터의 서로 다른 건축적·도시공간적 특성들이 빈집 발생 양상의 차이를 만들어내는 요인으로 작용하고 있었다. 클러스터 1은 열악한 물리적 환경으로 인해 재개발 취소의 영향력이 심화된 구역이었으며, 클러스터 2는 양호한 물리적 환경을 보유했지만 재개발에 대한 기대 심리를 기반으로 빈집이 발생하게 된 구역이었다. 클러스터 1과 2의 경우 동일하게 재정비촉진지구로 지정된 후 해제되었지만, 기존의 도시·건축적 특성의 차이로 인해 빈집의 밀도, 건물 및 가로의 상태에 있어 서로 다른 양상과 영향력을 드러냈다. 더불어 클러스터 3은 사회취약계층의 공간적 집중과 가로변 건물들의 개보수로 인해 상대적 쇠퇴가 심화된 구역이었으며, 클러스터 4는 열악한 기반시설 및 대규모 기피시설이 빈집 발생을 유도한 구역이었다. 연구결과에 따르면, 폐쇄적 블록, 협소한 가로, 소규모 필지 등의 열악한 물리적 환경이 재정비촉진지구의 해제, 사회취약계층의 공간적 집중 등과 결합됨에 따라 빈집현상의 심화 및 확산으로 연결되었다. 또한 빈집 인근 공적영역의 유지관리 여부가 추가적인 쇠퇴의 진행 및 쇠퇴 이미지 형성에 중요한 역학을 하고 있었다. 한편 연구결과를 통해 거주위치 및 거주특성에 따라 주민들이 빈집문제의 심각성을 인식하고 대응하는데 있어 차이가 존재함을 확인할 수 있었다. ; Introduction 1 Chapter 1. Housing abandonment in shrinking cities of East Asia: Case study in Incheon, South Korea 5 1. Introduction 5 2. Theoretical Framework and Research Site 10 3. Results 14 4. Discussion 26 5. Conclusion 35 Chapter 2. Planned inequality of the locational pattern of housing abandonment in shrinking inner-city areas of Incheon, South Korea 37 1. Introduction 37 2. Literature Review 41 3. Data and Methods 47 4. Results 58 5. Discussion 70 6. Conclusion 76 Chapter 3. Perceptions of abandonment: Analyzing subjective perception on vacant houses using the photo-elicitation method 78 1. Introduction 78 2. Literature Review 83 3. Methods 90 4. Results 96 5. Discussion 119 Chapter 4. The causes and characteristics of housing abandonment in an inner-city neighborhood: Focused on the Sungui-dong area, Nam-gu, Incheon 125 1. Introduction 125 2. Theoretical Consideration 136 3. Results 143 4. Discussion 162 5. Conclusion 164 Conclusion 167 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 174 REFERENCES 175 ABSTRACT IN KOREAN 184 ; Doctor

The number 1 edition of volume XXII of the year 2021, eight research articles, five review articles and one corresponding to the special section, university life. The first research article RELATION BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ATTITUDE AND THE PURCHASE OF SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE PRODUCTS IN THE CONSUMERS OF MEDELLÍN, COLOMBIA, written by Diana María López Celis of the Konrad Lorenz University and Mónica Eugenia Peñalosa Otero of the Jorge Tadeo Lozano University, address the responsible consumption issue and its relationship with the environment. The research was carried out in the city of Medellín - Colombia and 390 people over 18 years of age were surveyed. Data analysis was carried out, the results of which yielded interesting aspects such as a change in people's buying behavior, with a view to preserving the environment. In second place is the article EFFECTS OF THE FEATURES OF VIDEOS ON YOUTUBE THAT INCREASE THEIR POPULARITY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS by Carlos Fernando Osorio Andrade, Augusto Rodríguez Orejuela, Fernando Moreno Betancourt, professors at the Universidad del Valle, make an immersion in the world of multimedia platforms and use YouTube as a source of information to analyse the effect of some aspects such as: the strategy of the message, the consistency of the brand and the technical characteristics of the video on the popularity or download of videos corresponding to 4 cell phone companies , specifically Tigo, Movistar, Claro , Avantel. Third, in the article TYPOLOGIES OF POVERTY IN CALI: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON SISBEN, written by María Isabel Caicedo Hurtado and María Castillo Valencia of the Universidad del Valle in Colombia, a comparative study of the poverty conditions of the people surveyed by the Identification System of Potential Beneficiaries of Social Programs (SISBEN) for 2009 and 2019. This information is used to estimate the different types of poverty, based on the monetary poverty line and basic needs dissatisfied households in the city of Cali. The conclusions are very interesting in that there is evidence of an impoverishment of the people who enter the SISBEN and the inclusion of the poor in communes or neighborhoods of the city that had not previously been registered. In the fourth article ANALYSIS OF VENEZUELAN MIGRATION IN THE CITY OF PASTO: CHARACTERISTICS AND PERCEPTIONS OF MIGRANTS written by Bayron Paz Noguera; Oscar Alpala Ramos; Evelyn Villota Vivas, presents a socioeconomic characterization of the Venezuelan migrants who are in the city of Pasto and includes the reasons that led them to leave their country. For the research, which is also exploratory, a survey was applied to 180 people in which questions were included that allowed conclusions to be drawn regarding the situation of migrants in the city. It is interesting in that it shows empirically that some reasons for the exodus are insecurity, poverty and discontent with the government of Nicolás Maduro. In the fifth place is presented the article ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND DESIGN: CHARACTERIZATION OF ENTREPRENEURIAL INITIATIVES OF INDUSTRIAL DESIGNERS by María Cristina Ascuntar Rivera and Francisco Rafael Ayala Gallardo who make an analysis of the entrepreneurial initiatives of the students of the industrial design program of the University de Nariño in Colombia, which is presented as one of the degree options at this institution. The documentary review is established for a period of 18 years (2000-2018), 201 research projects were reviewed in different modalities of which only 5% corresponded to the modality of business creation. It is concluded that it is necessary to strengthen entrepreneurship and the modality of business creation, among other recommendations. In the sixth research article, BUSINESS INTENTION AND CULTURAL DIMENSIONS IN MASTER'S STUDENTS IN ADMINISTRATION IN COLOMBIA written by Edwin Ignacio Tarapuez Chamorro, Juan Manuel Aristizábal Tamayo and Adriana Patricia Uribe Urán, the dependence between business intention and the cultural dimensions of MBA students in Colombia, based on Hofstede's studies on culture, and as reference two variables: ease of doing business, included in the Doing Business study of the World Bank (2013) and the assessment of the entrepreneurial environment in Colombia contained in the General Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). For the research, a non-probabilistic survey was applied to 485 people from 36 face-to-face programs in 14 cities in Colombia divided between high income and low income, obtaining interesting results regarding the six dimensions studied. In the seventh research article CONSUMER DECISION MAKING AND CONSERVATION IN COSTA RICA presented by Pablo Andrés Sánchez Campos, an analysis of the consumer decision-making of respondents in Costa Rica and the influence of conservatism in this type of decision is carried out. The data are analyzed using statistical techniques and instruments that provide interesting conclusions to the investigation. In the eighth research article SOCIAL MEDIA MARKETING EN EMPRESAS AGRÍCOLAS CUBANAS written by Rudibel Perdigón Llanes and Hubert Viltres Sala, the importance of the use of social networks and the Internet for increasing profits and the visibility of companies is taken up. In the investigation, information was collected from 61 companies of the Agricultural Business Group of the Ministry of Agriculture of Cuba, concluding that it is necessary to reinforce their positioning due to their low index of digital positioning, which hinders their economic growth. Within the group of review articles is the one presented by Luis Améstica Rivas, Andrea King Domínguez, Carlos Cruzat Valenzuela, and Constanza Stuardo Solar from the Universidad de Chile called ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE COUNCIL. A BIBLIOMETRIC STUDY. The authors carried out an interesting review of 4,468 articles related to the business area, using bibliometric techniques supported by the VOSviewer software, in order to establish the importance and relationship between decision-making by Boards of Directors and financial performance of the companies. The second review article is the one presented by Claudia Magali Solarte Solarte, Martha Lida Solarte Solarte, Gloria Alicia Rivera Vallejo of the Universidad Cesmag located in Colombia called THE ROLE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN CONFLICT AND POSTCONFLICT: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF LITERATURE. With the help of specialized databases such as Scopus, Scielo, Redalyc, Science Direct and Google Scholar, the authors explored some general terms related to entrepreneurship, in view of their interest in determining how entrepreneurship becomes a possible alternative of productive reintegration for ex-combatants and victims of the armed conflict in different countries of the world. In the third review article, TOURIST COMPETITIVENESS. AN APPROACH FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF BOYACÁ, COLOMBIA written by Ana Milena Serrano Amado, Luz A. Montoya Restrepo, Nidia Paola Amado Cely, the determining factors of the competitiveness of tourist destinations in the Province of Sugamuxi were identified, using the Crouch and Ritchie model. Some existing competitiveness models were reviewed and interesting conclusions were established with a view to generating a growing tourism dynamic in said province. In the fourth review article, TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOLIDARITY ECONOMY: ANALYSIS FROM THE CONCEPT OF DEVELOPMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE INCORPORATION OF COMMUNITIES IN A TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, the authors Helmer Fernando Llanez Anaya and Claudia Patricia Sacristán Rodríguez, propose a analysis framework to articulate territorial development and the solidarity economy from three dimensions: the idea of development, the environmental dimension and the incorporation of communities in a territorial development strategy. For them, they conducted a document review using databases such as Redalyc, Scielo, Research Gate, scopus and Web of Science through the metasearch engine of the Javeriana University library. In the last review article OFERTA EXPORTABLE DEL CACAO FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF NARIÑO, (2010-2018), the authors Yhancy Eliana Coral Rojas, Gladys Omaira Melo Mosquera, Darlan Arley Agredo Madroñero and Jenny Katherine Moncayo Rosero, from the Universidad de Nariño in Colombia , carry out a secondary review on the cocoa sector in Colombia, using the general database of exports of Nariño of the official platform of the DIAN entity that presents the export declarations of each region in Colombia, the information platform of Legiscomex and the ranking tool by tariff subheading and by department of and the ordering variable in FOB value (US $). With the data obtained, some recommendations are established for the cocoa sector of the department of Nariño. ; La edición No 1 del volumen XXII del año 2021, contiene ocho artículos de investigación, cinco de revisión y uno correspondiente a la sección especial, vida universitaria. El primer artículo de investigación RELACIÓN ENTRE LA ACTITUD AMBIENTAL Y LA COMPRA DE PRODUCTOS SOCIALMENTE RESPONSABLES EN LOS CONSUMIDORES DE MEDELLÍN, COLOMBIA, escrito por Diana María López Celis de la Universidad Konrad Lorenz y Mónica Eugenia Peñalosa Otero de la Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano, abordan el tema de consumo responsable y su relación con el medio ambiente. La investigación de desarrolló en la ciudad de Medellín – Colombia y se encuestaron 390 personas mayores de 18 años. Se realizó el análisis de los datos, cuyos resultados arrojaron aspectos interesantes como un cambio en el comportamiento de compra de las personas, con miras a la preservación del medio ambiente. En segundo lugar se encuentra el artículo EFECTOS DE LAS CARACTERÍSTICAS DE VIDEOS EN YOUTUBE QUE AUMENTAN SU POPULARIDAD: UN ANÁLISIS EMPÍRICO de Carlos Fernando Osorio Andrade, Augusto Rodríguez Orejuela, Fernando Moreno Betancourt, profesores de la Universidad del Valle, hacen una inmersión en el mundo de las plataformas multimedia y utilizan YouTube como fuente de información para analizar el efecto de algunos aspectos tales como: la estrategia del mensaje, la consistencia de marca y las características técnicas del video sobre la popularidad o descarga de videos correspondientes a 4 empresas de telefonía celular, específicamente Tigo, Movistar, Claro, Avantel. En tercer lugar, en el artículo TIPOLOGÍAS DE POBREZA EN CALI: UN ANÁLISIS CON BASE EN EL SISBEN escrito por María Isabel Caicedo Hurtado y María Castillo Valencia de la Universidad del Valle en Colombia, se elaboran un estudio comparativo de las condiciones de pobreza de las personas encuestadas por el Sistema de Identificación de Potenciales Beneficiarios de Programas Sociales (SISBEN) para en el año 2009 y para el año 2019. Se utiliza esta información para estimar las diferentes tipologías de pobreza, en función de la línea de pobreza monetaria y necesidades básicas insatisfechas de los hogares de la ciudad de Cali. Las conclusiones son muy interesantes en tanto se evidencia un empobrecimiento de las personas que ingresan al SISBEN y la inclusión de pobres en comunas o barrios de la ciudad que antes no se habían registrado. En el cuarto artículo ANÁLISIS DE LA MIGRACIÓN VENEZOLANA EN LA CIUDAD DE PASTO: CARACTERÍSTICAS Y PERCEPCIONES DE LOS MIGRANTES escrito por Bayron Paz Noguera; Oscar Alpala Ramos; Evelyn Villota Vivas, se presenta una caracterización socioeconómica de los migrantes venezolanos que se encuentran en la ciudad de Pasto y se incluyen las razones que los llevaron a salir de su país. Para la investigación, que además es de tipo exploratorio, se aplicó una encuesta a 180 personas en la que se incluyeron preguntas que permitieron extraer conclusiones respecto a la situación de los migrantes en la ciudad. Es interesante en tanto demuestra empíricamente que algunas razones para el éxodo son la inseguridad, la pobreza y el descontento con el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro. En el quinto lugar se presenta el artículo EMPRENDIMIENTO Y DISEÑO: CARACTERIZACIÓN DE LAS INICIATIVAS EMPRENDEDORAS DE LOS DISEÑADORES INDUSTRIALES de María Cristina Ascuntar Rivera y Francisco Rafael Ayala Gallardo quienes hacen un análisis de las iniciativas emprendedoras de los estudiantes del programa de diseño industrial de la Universidad de Nariño en Colombia, que se presenta como una de las opciones de grado en esta institución. La revisión documental se establece para un período de 18 años (2000- 2018), se revisaron 201 proyectos de investigación en diferentes modalidades de los cuales únicamente el 5% correspondió a la modalidad de creación de empresa. Se concluye que es preciso fortalecer el emprendimiento y la modalidad de creación de empresas, entre otras recomendaciones. En el sexto artículo de investigación, INTENCIÓN EMPRESARIAL Y DIMENSIONES CULTURALES EN ESTUDIANTES DE MAESTRÍA EN ADMINISTRACIÓN EN COLOMBIA escrito por Edwin Ignacio Tarapuez Chamorro, Juan Manuel Aristizábal Tamayo y Adriana Patricia Uribe Urán, se analiza la dependencia entre la intención empresarial y las dimensiones culturales de los estudiantes de Maestría en Administración (MBA) en Colombia, tomando como base los estudios de Hofstede sobre la cultura, y como referentes dos variables: la facilidad para hacer negocios, incluida en el estudio Doing Business del Banco Mundial (2013) y la valoración del entorno emprendedor en Colombia contenida en el General Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Para la investigación se aplicó una encuesta no probabilística a 485 personas de 36 programas presenciales en 14 ciudades de Colombia divididas entre altos ingresos y bajos ingresos, obteniendo resultados interesantes en cuanto a las seis dimensiones estudiadas. En el séptimo artículo de investigación TOMA DE DECISIONES DE CONSUMIDORES Y CONSERVADURISMO EN COSTA RICA presentado por Pablo Andrés Sánchez Campos, se realiza un análisis la toma de decisiones de consumo de encuestados en Costa Rica y la influencia del conservadurismo en este tipo de decisiones. Los datos se analizan utilizando técnicas e instrumentos estadísticos que aportan interesantes conclusiones a la investigación. En el octavo artículo de investigación SOCIAL MEDIA MARKETING EN EMPRESAS AGRÍCOLAS CUBANAS escrito por Rudibel Perdigón Llanes y Hubert Viltres Sala, se retoma la importancia que tiene el uso de las redes sociales e internet para el incremento de utilidades y la visibilidad de las empresas. En la investigación se recolectó información de 61 empresas del Grupo Empresarial Agrícola del Ministerio de la Agricultura de Cuba, concluyendo que es necesario reforzar el posicionamiento de las mismas debido a su bajo índice de posicionamiento digital, lo que obstaculiza su crecimiento económico. Dentro del grupo de los artículos de revisión se encuentra el presentado por Luis Améstica Rivas, Andrea King Domínguez, Carlos Cruzat Valenzuela, Constanza Stuardo Solar de la Universidad de Chile denominado CONSEJO DE ADMINISTRACIÓN Y DESEMPEÑO FINANCIERO. UN ESTUDIO BIBLIOMÉTRICO. Los autores realizaron una interesante revisión de 4.468 artículos relacionados con el área de negocios, utilizaron técnicas bibliométricas apoyadas por el software VOSviewer, con el propósito de establecer la importancia y relación entre la toma de decisiones por parte de los Consejos de Administración y el desempeño financiero de las compañías. El segundo artículo de revisión es el presentado por Claudia Magali Solarte Solarte, Martha Lida Solarte Solarte, Gloria Alicia Rivera Vallejo de la Universidad Cesmag ubicada en Colombia denominado PAPEL DEL EMPRENDIMIENTO EN EL CONFLICTO Y POSTCONFLICTO: UNA REVISIÓN SISTEMÁTICA DE LITERATURA. Con la ayuda de las bases de datos especializadas como Scopus, Scielo, Redalyc, Science Direct y Google Scholar, las autoras exploraron algunos términos generales relacionados con el emprendimiento, en vista de su interés por determinar la manera cómo el emprendimiento se convierte en una posible alternativa de reinserción productiva para excombatientes y víctimas del conflicto armado en diferentes países del mundo. En el tercer artículo de revisión, LA COMPETITIVIDAD TURÍSTICA. UNA APROXIMACIÓN DESDE EL DEPARTAMENTO DE BOYACÁ, COLOMBIA escrito por Ana Milena Serrano Amado, Luz A. Montoya Restrepo, Nidia Paola Amado Cely, se identificaron los factores determinantes de la competitividad de los destinos turísticos en la Provincia de Sugamuxi, utilizando el modelo de Crouch y Ritchie. Se revisaron algunos modelos de competitividad existentes y se establecieron interesantes conclusiones con miras a generar una dinámica turística creciente en dicha provincia. En el cuarto artículo de revisión, DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL Y ECONOMÍA SOLIDARIA: ANÁLISIS DESDE EL CONCEPTO DE DESARROLLO, EL MEDIO AMBIENTE Y LA INCORPORACIÓN DE LAS COMUNIDADES EN UNA ESTRATEGIA DE DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL, los autores Helmer Fernando Llanez Anaya y Claudia Patricia Sacristán Rodríguez, proponer un marco de análisis para articular el desarrollo territorial y la economía solidaria desde tres dimensiones: la idea de desarrollo, la dimensión ambiental y la incorporación de las comunidades en una estrategia de desarrollo territorial. Para ellos realizaron una revisión documental utilizando bases de datos como Redalyc, Scielo, Research Gate, scopus y Web of Science a través del metabuscador de la biblioteca de la Universidad Javeriana. En el último artículo de revisión OFERTA EXPORTABLE DEL CACAO DEL DEPARTAMENTO DE NARIÑO, (2010-2018), los autores Yhancy Eliana Coral Rojas, Gladys Omaira Melo Mosquera, Darlan Arley Agredo Madroñero y Jenny Katherine Moncayo Rosero, de la Universidad de nariño en Colombia, realizan una revisión secundaria sobre el sector cacaotero en Colombia, utilizando la base de datos general de exportaciones de Nariño de la plataforma oficial de la DIAN entidad que presenta las declaraciones de exportación de cada región en Colombia, la plataforma de información de Legiscomex y la herramienta ranking por subpartida arancelaria y por departamento de y la variable de ordenamiento en valor FOB (US$). Con los datos obtenidos se establecen algunas recomendaciones para el sector cacaoterio del departamento de Nariño. ; O número 1 do volume XXII do ano 2021 contém cinco artigos de pesquisa, cinco artigos de revisão e um correspondente à seção especial Vida universitária. Primeiro artigo de pesquisa RELAÇÃO ENTRE A ATIVIDADE AMBIENTAL E A COMPRA DE PRODUTOS SOCIALMENTE RESPONSÁVEIS POR CONSUMIDORES DE MEDELLÍN, COLÔMBIA, escrito por Diana María López Celis da Universidade Konrad Lorenz e Mónica Eugenia Peñalosa Otero da Universidade Jorge Tadeo Empréstimo temático de consumo responsável e sua relação com o meio ambiente. Pesquisa de desenvolvimento na cidade de Medellín - Colômbia e 390 pessoas tinham mais de 18 anos. Foi realizada a análise dos dados, cujos resultados trouxeram aspectos interessantes como a mudança no comportamento de compra das pessoas, com vistas à preservação do meio ambiente. Em segundo lugar, o artigo EFEITOS DAS CARACTERÍSTICAS DOS VÍDEOS NO YOUTUBE QUE AUMENTAM SUA POPULARIDADE: A ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA de Carlos Fernando Osorio Andrade, Augusto Rodríguez Orejuela, Fernando Moreno Betancourt, professores da Universidad del Valle, fazem uma imersão no mundo de plataformas multimídia e usar o YouTube como fonte de informação para analisar a eficácia de alguns aspectos como: a estratégia da mensagem, a consistência da marca e as características técnicas do vídeo sobre a popularidade do download de vídeos correspondentes a 4 empresas de telefonia , especificamente Tigo, Movistar, Claro, Avantel. Em terceiro lugar, no artigo TIPOLOGIAS DE POBREZA EM CALI: UMA ANÁLISE COM BASE NO SISBEN, escrito por María Isabel Caicedo Hurtado e María Castillo Valencia, da Universidad del Valle na Colômbia, foi desenvolvido um estudo comparativo das condições de pobreza na Colômbia. eles. pessoas entrevistadas pelo Sistema de Identificação de Potenciais Beneficiários de Programas Sociais (SISBEN) para o ano de 2009 e para o ano de 2019. Essas informações são utilizadas para estimar os diferentes tipos de pobreza, de acordo com a linha de pobreza monetária e necessidades básicas de pessoas insatisfeitas. a cidade de Cali. As conclusões são muito interessantes, tanto que há indícios de um empobrecimento das pessoas que ingressam no SISBEN e da inclusão dos pobres nas comunas da cidade que não eram cadastrados anteriormente. No quarto artigo ANÁLISE DA MIGRAÇÃO VENEZUELANA NA CIDADE DE PASTO: CARACTERÍSTICAS E PERCEPÇÕES DOS MIGRANTES, escrito por Bayron Paz Noguera; Oscar Alpala Ramos; Evelyn Villota Vivas apresenta uma caracterização socioeconômica dos migrantes venezuelanos que se encontram na cidade de Pasto e inclui os motivos que os levaram a deixar seu país. Para a pesquisa, que também é exploratória, foi aplicada uma survey a 180 pessoas, que incluiu questões que permitissem tirar conclusões sobre a situação dos migrantes na cidade. É interessante, tanto empiricamente, que alguns motivos para o êxodo da insegurança, pobreza e descontentamento com o governo de Nicolás Maduro. Em quinto lugar, o artigo EMPREENDEDORISMO E DESIGN: CARACTERIZAÇÃO DAS INICIATIVAS DE DESIGNERS INDUSTRIAIS de María Cristina Ascuntar Rivera e Francisco Rafael Ayala Gallardo, que faz uma análise das iniciativas empreendedoras de estudantes industriais de seus alunos. de Nariño na Colômbia, que se apresenta como uma das opções de graça nesta instituição. A revisão documental está prevista para um período de 18 anos (2000-2018), foram revisados 201 projetos de pesquisa em diferentes modalidades, dos quais apenas 5% correspondem ao método de criação de empresas. Conclui-se que é necessário fortalecer o empreendedorismo e a criação de negócios, entre outras recomendações. No sexto artigo de pesquisa, INTENÇÃO EMPRESARIAL E DIMENSÕES CULTURAIS EM ALUNOS DE MESTRE EM ADMINISTRAÇÃO NA COLÔMBIA, escrito por Edwin Ignacio Tarapuez Chamorro, Juan Manuel Aristizábal Tamayo e Adriana Patricia Uribe Urán, a dependência entre a intenção empresarial e as dimensões culturais de Alunos de MBA na Colômbia, com base nos estudos de Hofstede sobre cultura, e como referência duas variáveis: facilidade de fazer negócios, incluída no estudo Doing Business do Banco Mundial (2013) e a avaliação do ambiente empresarial na Colômbia contido no General Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Para a pesquisa, foi aplicada uma pesquisa não probabilística a 485 pessoas de 36 programas presenciais em 14 cidades da Colômbia divididas entre alta e baixa renda, obtendo resultados interessantes em relação às seis dimensões estudadas. No sétimo artigo de pesquisa TOMADA DE DECISÕES E CONSERVAÇÃO DO CONSUMIDOR NA COSTA RICA apresentada por Pablo Andrés Sánchez Campos, é feita uma análise da tomada de decisão dos respondentes do consumidor na Costa Rica e a influência do conservadorismo neste tipo de decisão. Os dados são analisados por meio de técnicas e instrumentos estatísticos que fornecem conclusões interessantes para a investigação. No oitavo artigo de investigação SOCIAL MEDIA MARKETING EN EMPRESAS AGRÍCOLAS CUBANAS da autoria de Rudibel Perdigón Llanes e Hubert Viltres Sala, retoma-se a importância da utilização das redes sociais e da Internet para aumentar os lucros e a visibilidade das empresas. Na investigação foram coletadas informações de 61 empresas do Grupo Empresarial Agrícola do Ministério da Agricultura de Cuba, concluindo que é necessário reforçar seu posicionamento devido ao seu baixo índice de posicionamento digital, que dificulta seu crescimento econômico. Dentro do grupo de artigos de revisão está o apresentado por Luis Améstica Rivas, Andrea King Domínguez, Carlos Cruzat Valenzuela e Constanza Stuardo Solar da Universidade do Chile denominado CONSELHO DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO E DESEMPENHO FINANCEIRO. UM ESTUDO BIBLIOMÉTRICO. Os autores realizaram uma interessante revisão de 4.468 artigos relacionados à área de negócios, utilizando técnicas bibliométricas apoiadas no software VOSviewer, a fim de estabelecer a importância e a relação entre a tomada de decisão dos Conselhos de Administração e o desempenho financeiro. das empresas. O segundo artigo de revisão é o apresentado por Claudia Magali Solarte Solarte, Martha Lida Solarte Solarte, Gloria Alicia Rivera Vallejo da Universidade Cesmag localizada na Colômbia denominado O PAPEL DO EMPREENDEDORISMO NO CONFLITO E PÓS-CONFLITO: UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DA LITERATURA. Com a ajuda de bancos de dados especializados como Scopus, Scielo, Redalyc, Science Direct e Google Scholar, os autores exploraram alguns termos gerais relacionados ao empreendedorismo, tendo em vista seu interesse em determinar cómo o empreendedorismo se torna um possível alternativa produtiva de reintegração para ex-combatentes e vítimas do conflito armado em diversos países do mundo. No terceiro artigo de revisão, COMPETITIVIDADE TURÍSTICA. UMA ABORDAGEM DO DEPARTAMENTO DE BOYACÁ, COLÔMBIA escrito por Ana Milena Serrano Amado, Luz A. Montoya Restrepo, Nidia Paola Amado Cely, foram identificados os fatores determinantes da competitividade dos destinos turísticos da Província de Sugamuxi, a partir do modelo Crouch e Ritchie. Foram revistos alguns modelos de competitividade existentes e estabelecidas conclusões interessantes com vista a gerar uma dinâmica turística crescente na referida província. No quarto artigo de revisão, DESENVOLVIMENTO TERRITORIAL E ECONOMIA SOLIDÁRIA: ANÁLISE A PARTIR DO CONCEITO DE DESENVOLVIMENTO, MEIO AMBIENTE E INCORPORAÇÃO DE COMUNIDADES EM UMA ESTRATÉGIA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO TERRITORIAL, os autores Helmer Fernando Llanez Anaya e Claudia Patricia a Rodríguez, propõem quadro de análise para articular o desenvolvimento territorial e a economia solidária a partir de três dimensões: a ideia de desenvolvimento, a dimensão ambiental e a incorporação das comunidades numa estratégia de desenvolvimento territorial. Para eles, realizaram uma revisão documental em bancos de dados como Redalyc, Scielo, Research Gate, scopus e Web of Science por meio do mecanismo de metabusca da biblioteca da Universidade Javeriana. No último artigo de revisão OFERTA EXPORTAVEL DE CACAU DO DEPARTAMENTO DE NARIÑO, (2010-2018), os autores Yhancy Eliana Coral Rojas, Gladys Omaira Melo Mosquera, Darlan Arley Agredo Madroñero e Jenny Katherine Moncayo Rosero, da Universidade de Nariño na Colômbia , realizar uma revisão secundária sobre o setor do cacau na Colômbia, utilizando a base de dados geral de exportações de Nariño da plataforma oficial da entidade DIAN que apresenta as declarações de exportação de cada região da Colômbia, a plataforma de informação do Legiscomex e do ferramenta de classificação por subtítulo tarifário e por departamento e a variável de pedido em valor FOB (US $). Com os dados obtidos, são estabelecidas algumas recomendações para o setor cacaueiro do departamento de Nariño.

After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries from the European Union (EU) and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources. Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened. However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance.

This report is the product of a comprehensive study on Benin. It highlights the country s geographical and economic situation and concentrates in particular on environmental conditions and the challenges facing Benin. This report covers the financing of priority environmental activities, as well as allocations to programs designed to improve the environment and living conditions of the population. The environmental analysis of Benin seeks to help the Government integrate the environment into policy formulation by analyzing cross-cutting aspects and the challenges of implementing sound environmental management, and creating a platform for strengthening the country s capacities in order to facilitate sustainable natural resource and environmental management. To this end, a number of measures have been recommended, among them the establishment of effective policies and institutions based on sound governance and improved effectiveness, and the mobilization of financing for environmental protection and natural resource management. The study includes the analysis of a case study on three cities: Porto-Novo, Cotonou, and Parakou, and examines the impact of environmental problems and environmental management challenges on these cities.