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This special issue on "Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict" brings together the results of a 2018 workshop organized by the Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) and the Wilson Center with six papers that address different aspects of the translation of the research on climate change and conflict to policy and practice. Here, we provide an overview of the workshop and papers to highlight key opportunities and challenges to linking the climate-conflict scholarship with pressing issues in diplomacy, development, and security.Multiple methods, especially comparative case studies, should be applied to elucidate the more complex mechanisms of the climate-conflict link. This approach may also enhance engagement with the policymakers who draw on examples and narratives. There is also a need for both predictive models that capture contextual factors and policy interactions as well as decision-support tools, such as integrated assessment models, that can be used to test the implications of different theories and models in the literature.Scholars should engage the policy community to formulate research questions that are more policy relevant, such as the effectiveness of interventions. There is also the need for models and frameworks that help practitioners synthesize the academic results. Practitioners are encouraged to leverage the comparative advantages of academic researchers in new policy and projects to inform data collection and future analysis of effectiveness.

La presente tesi si concentra sull'incertezza e sulla sua relazione con il rischio finanziario, due importanti concetti in economia e finanza. Il primo capitolo propone un approccio analitico in grado di separare gli shock connessi all'incertezza finanziaria dagli shock legati all'incertezze politiche, utilizzando un campione di paesi appartenti all'area Euro, dove la diffusione di shock da un paese all'altro (effetti di spillover) rendono l'identificazione più complessa. I risultati indicano che la BCE favorisce adottare una condotta proattiva verso gli shock di incertezza politica, e una più passiva verso gli shock di incertezza finanziaria. Il secondo capitolo discute il trade-off tra accuratezza della previsione e velocità di reazione che consente agli hedge fund di incrementare i profitti durante periodi caratterizzati da elevata incertezza. In questo capitolo si propone un metodo matematico per l'analisi di tale trade-off utilizzando un approccio Bayesiano. I risultati empirici e le simulazioni effettuate indicano che previsioni meno accurate sono associate ad aumenti di velocità. Infine, il terzo capitolo analizza alcune problematiche inerenti alla transizione ad un'economia a basso impatto ambientale, tenendo conto che la presenza di incertezza e asimmetrie informative potrebbero amplificare o limitare i pregiudizi comportamentali degli investitori. ; This thesis focuses on broader or Knightian uncertainty and its relation with financial uncertainty or risk, given the overlaps existing between these two important concepts in the economics and finance literature. The first chapter adds to the existing stock of analytical methods able to disentangle financial from policy-related uncertainty shocks within a sample of Euro Area countries, where cross-border spill-overs can raise identification challenges. In terms of policy reactions, the results point to ECB having adopted a pro-active stance towards policy uncertainty shocks, but a more passive or accommodative stance towards financial uncertainty shocks. The second chapter discusses the trade-off between prediction accuracy and reaction speed that allows hedge funds to better time the market and profit during periods of turmoil and high uncertainty. It proposes a mathematical formulation of the trade-off that casts the decision-making process in a Bayesian framework. The empirical results, pointing to speed gains associated with less accurate predictions, are justified in a simulation exercise. The third chapter discusses some challenges arising from the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy in a market context dominated by multiple uncertainty sources and information frictions that can either amplify or reduce investors' own behavioural biases.

BACKGROUND: Increasing access to drugs for the treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is crucial but could lead to increasing resistance to these same drugs. In 2000, the international Green Light Committee (GLC) initiative began to increase access while attempting to prevent acquired resistance. METHODS: To assess the GLC's impact, we followed adults with pulmonary MDR tuberculosis from the start to the end of treatment with monthly sputum cultures, drug susceptibility testing, and genotyping. We compared the frequency and predictors of acquired resistance to second-line drugs (SLDs) in 9 countries that volunteered to participate, 5 countries that met GLC criteria, and 4 countries that did not apply to the GLC. RESULTS: In total, 832 subjects were enrolled. Of those without baseline resistance to specific SLDs, 68 (8.9%) acquired extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis, 79 (11.2%) acquired fluoroquinolone (FQ) resistance, and 56 (7.8%) acquired resistance to second-line injectable drugs (SLIs). The relative risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) of acquired resistance was lower at GLC-approved sites: 0.27 (.16-.47) for XDR tuberculosis, 0.28 (.17-.45) for FQ, and 0.15 (.06-.39) to 0.60 (.34-1.05) for 3 different SLIs. The risk increased as the number of potentially effective drugs decreased. Controlling for baseline drug resistance and differences between sites, the odds ratios (95% CIs) were 0.21 (.07-.62) for acquired XDR tuberculosis and 0.23 (.09-.59) for acquired FQ resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of MDR tuberculosis involves substantial risk of acquired resistance to SLDs, increasing as baseline drug resistance increases. The risk was significantly lower in programs documented by the GLC to meet specific standards. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US. ; open

"Historians often emphasize how, during both the difficult inter-war years and the Second World War, the Liberal government of Mackenzie King successfully reconciled the needs of majority rule with the recognition of minority voice, particularly in foreign affairs. How did a consummate anti-Catholic, who did not even speak French, manage to acknowledge and accommodate the vastly different demands of the French-speaking population? Ernest Lapointe, officially the minister of justice (1924-6, 1926-30, 1935-41) and minister of fisheries (1921-4), represented francophone Quebeckers in the federal cabinet. His ability to influence and reflect the views of the Quebec population, his loyalty to Mackenzie King, and in some cases, his threats of resignation, awarded him considerable weight in many external affairs questions. Analysing seventeen foreign policy decisions, the author uncovers Ernest Lapointe's relationship with King, and the voice of Quebec represented by his skillful interceptions."--Jacket

AbstractWe extend the literature on global supply chains by analyzing if and how unilateral environmental regulation induces offshoring. We develop an analytical model of two‐stage production processes that can be distributed between two countries and investigate unilateral emission pricing and its supplementation with border carbon taxes. In contrast to existing final good models, we are able to show how impacts of regulation differ across the different stages of the supply chain, depending on the interplay of comparative advantages and general equilibrium effects. To get a more comprehensive picture, we subsequently apply a computable general equilibrium model that includes a representation of international supply chains. We find heterogeneous but mostly positive effects of a unilateral carbon emission reduction by the European Union on the degree of vertical specialization of European industries. Border taxes are successful in protecting upstream industries, but with negative side effects for downstream industries.

Findings from the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) Program indicate that many arrestees underreport recent drug use. An experiment was undertaken to determine whether modifying DUF data collection procedures could enhance self-reporting without adversely affecting study response rates. A 2×2 factorial design was used to assess the effects of two manipulations. The first experimental condition involved administering either the standard DUF informed consent or an enhanced consent that told the arrestees more about the confidential nature of the research and the capabilities of urinalysis. The second condition involved collecting the urine specimen either before or after the interview was administered. A total of 2,009 Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston arrestees were randomly assigned to one of the four experimental cells. Findings indicate that: 1) none of the experimental conditions affected the interview and urine response rates; 2) whether an arrestee received the standard or enhanced informed consent did not affect self-reported drug use; and 3) while some comparisons indicated that the urine-first condition raised the rates of self-reporting, these differences were not found in more than one site. Implications for arrestee cooperation rates and the potential usefulness of asking for a urine specimen and analyzing it prior to the interview are discussed.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association between the duration and level of exposure to different classes of anticholinergic drugs and subsequent incident dementia. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: General practices in the UK contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: 40 770 patients aged 65-99 with a diagnosis of dementia between April 2006 and July 2015, and 283 933 controls without dementia. INTERVENTIONS: Daily defined doses of anticholinergic drugs coded using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale, in total and grouped by subclass, prescribed 4-20 years before a diagnosis of dementia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratios for incident dementia, adjusted for a range of demographic and health related covariates. RESULTS: 14 453 (35%) cases and 86 403 (30%) controls were prescribed at least one anticholinergic drug with an ACB score of 3 (definite anticholinergic activity) during the exposure period. The adjusted odds ratio for any anticholinergic drug with an ACB score of 3 was 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.14). Dementia was associated with an increasing average ACB score. When considered by drug class, gastrointestinal drugs with an ACB score of 3 were not distinctively linked to dementia. The risk of dementia increased with greater exposure for antidepressant, urological, and antiparkinson drugs with an ACB score of 3. This result was also observed for exposure 15-20 years before a diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: A robust association between some classes of anticholinergic drugs and future dementia incidence was observed. This could be caused by a class specific effect, or by drugs being used for very early symptoms of dementia. Future research should examine anticholinergic drug classes as opposed to anticholinergic effects intrinsically or summing scales for anticholinergic exposure. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered to the European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies EUPAS8705.

Objective. The objective of this article is to provide evidence about the effectiveness of drug law enforcement as a tool for reducing other types of crime. Considerable resources are devoted to enforcing our nation's drug laws, but existing research suggests that intensifying drug law enforcement may serve to increase, rather than decrease, crime. Method. Using data for 62 counties in New York State for 1996-2000, we estimate a set of models that evaluate the effects of recent drug arrests on reported rates of assault, robbery, burglary, & larceny. The estimated statistical model includes controls for fixed effects, time effects, autocorrelation, & heteroskedasticity. Results. The consistency of results is striking -- there is no model in which drug arrests are found to have a significant negative relationship with crime. All crimes are positively related to arrests for the manufacture & sale of "hard drugs." Increases in total per capita drug arrests & arrests for "hard drug" possession are accompanied by higher rates for all crimes except assault. Increased arrests for the manufacture or sale of marijuana are associated with increases in larcenies. Conclusions. The empirical findings raise serious questions about the effectiveness of drug enforcement as a crime-control measure & suggest that significant social costs may arise from existing approaches to drug control. 5 Tables, 1 Appendix, 35 References. Adapted from the source document.