Suchergebnisse

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. This paper discusses about the economic conditions of Indonesia for the year 2015. Emerging market assets rebounded in October 2015 after the sharp losses recorded in August and September, when the uncertainty about the Chinese economic slowdown and the U.S. interest rate outlook was particularly high. Despite a more favorable market sentiment, capital flows to emerging economies have remained weak and borrowing costs relatively high. In addition to tight financing conditions, Indonesia faced subdued external demand for its exports in the near term and persistently low commodity prices over the medium run. In 2015, fire in Indonesia cost nearly twice that of reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Agriculture and forestry have sustained losses and damages in trillions. Sustained exposure to haze could also lead to the volcano effect, i.e., a decrease in plant productivity in the short term due to limited sun exposure and a deleterious effect on plant physiology and photosynthesis. The recurring nature of Indonesia's fire crisis is of particular concern. Another potential step in Indonesia's new reform process was the country's signaling its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in the near future. Whether membership materializes or not, the agreement is likely to have a limited impact on trade, because import tariffs in member countries are already low and Indonesia has trade agreements with most of them.

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) will succeed the Myanmar interim strategy note (FY13-14) and be the first full country strategy for Myanmar since 1984. This CPF comes at a time of great opportunity for Myanmar; over the three year period covered in this CPF, the reforms initiated in 2011 have the potential to bring Myanmar into a new era of peace and prosperity. Myanmar s history, ethnic diversity, and geography combine into a unique set of development challenges and opportunities, including (i) emergence from a long period of international isolation; (ii) widespread poverty, despite rich land, water, and mineral resource endowments; (iii) a strategic location in the fastest-growing region in the world; (iv) the role of the military and associated groups in the economy; and (v) long standing armed conflict and ethnic and religious tensions. Myanmar is on a path of fundamental transformation, seeking to address all these challenges and opportunities simultaneously. Along with unique opportunities, the CPF supported program will also face substantial risks. Political risks associated with the elections in late 2015 include a polarization among stakeholders, policy discontinuity, and a slow-down of reforms. The national peace process to resolve decades-old conflicts remains fragile. On the economic front, risks include vulnerability to volatile oil and gas prices, spending pressures, an underdeveloped financial sector, and a weak regulatory framework, while overall capacity constraints may limit the country s ability to effectively manage macro-financial shocks. The design of the WBG program will help manage and mitigate these risks, and the WBG will regularly review risks and opportunities and adapt the CPF during implementation as warranted. A performance and learning review planned for late FY16 will facilitate the adaptation of the WBG program to country developments as needed.

This report highlights the great potential of the agribusiness sector in Africa by drawing on experience in Africa as well as other regions. The evidence demonstrates that good policies, a conducive business environment, and strategic support from governments can help agribusiness reach its potential. Africa is now at a crossroads, from which it can take concrete steps to realize its potential or continue to lose competitiveness, missing a major opportunity for increased growth, employment, and food security. The report pursues several lines of analysis. First, it synthesizes the large body of work on agriculture and agribusiness in Africa. Second, it builds on a diagnosis of specific value chains. As part of this effort, the value chain for Africa's largest and fastest-growing food import, rice, is benchmarked in Senegal and Ghana against Thailand's rice value chain. Third, 170 agribusiness investments by the Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) in Africa and Southeast Asia are analyzed to gain perspective on the elements of success and failure. Fourth, the report synthesizes perspectives from the private sector through interviews with 23 leading agribusiness investors and a number of other key informants. In conclusion, the report offers practical policy advice based on the experience of countries from within and outside Africa. The huge diversity of Africa's agro-ecological, market, and business environments, however, necessarily means that each country (and indeed regions within countries) will need to adapt the broad guidance provided here to the local context. Annex 1, concerning the rice value chain, was authored by John Orchard, Tim Chancellor, Roy Denton, Amadou Abdoulaye Fall, and Peter Jaeger. Annex 2, containing interviews with 23 leading agribusiness players in Africa, was authored by Peter White.

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 required most sovereign debt managers to adapt to rapidly changing market circumstances, by changing the mix of borrowing instruments and adopting techniques that minimize the impact of severe market dislocations and increased risk aversion. These actions, allied to prudent macroeconomic and debt management policies implemented by government in the years preceding the crises, were critical in helping countries meet their financing needs without undue strain on the financial markets. This toolkit draws on the approaches taken by a range of countries and provides sovereign debt policy makers with a rich set of potential actions to address crisis periods. A practical illustration on the use of some of these actions is conducted by analyzing the measures taken by Romania, Serbia and Turkey as a response to the recent crises. Authors draw lessons from these experiences and examine what other measures included in the toolkit could have been used to boost the crisis response impact in these economies, respecting country-specific contexts.

This report has been prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Romania as an output of the World Bank advisory services program on climate change and low-carbon green growth in Romania. In response to the request, the World Bank quickly mobilized a team of sectoral and climate change (CC) specialists and conducted rapid assessments in six sectors - energy, transport, urban, water, agriculture, and forestry, which were pre-identified by both the Government of Romania and the World Bank as areas significant to emission mitigation and or adaptation to CC. The objective of rapid assessments was to quickly evaluate climate risks and identify CC-related investment priorities and necessary implementation support for the 2014-2020 operational programs. This document is the stocktaking report of component A1. It provides an introductory cover to the literature on CC, baseline for Romania, institutional review of Romania and key European Union (EU) requirements, as well as available data sets that were identified in the given short-time span. Its purpose is to support the government as a first stock of key climate and green growth issues for Romania and summarize the current situation. The report is structured as follows: section one gives introduction, section two provides the sectoral summary on the country background and characteristics. Section three provides the baseline for the CC and green growth challenges in Romania. Relevant climate dimensions of Europe 2020 and existing EU regulations and policies related to climate change are summarized in section four. Section five provides an overview of national strategies, regulatory framework, and organizational setup for addressing CC in Romania. Background information on the Romania 2014-2020 European structural and investment funds (ESIF) programming and CC related aspects in the forthcoming ESIF programming report are covered in section six. Finally, section seven provides a CC relevant bibliography for Romania that may serve as a tool for referring to key literature in the field.

With this first Zambia economic brief, the World Bank is launching a series of short economic updates that will be produced twice a year. Each brief will include two sections: the Bank's assessment of recent economic developments and outlook in the short to medium term; and its analysis on a specific development topic or theme. The authors expect these briefs to support evidence-based policy debate in the country, strengthen public demand for good policies and outcomes, and inform government policies and programs. In this brief, first section reports on Zambia's continued robust growth, fiscal outcomes, and capital inflows at the end of 2012 against the backdrop of performance of other Sub- Saharan and global economies. It stresses the need for the government to spend borrowed and own resources more prudently. While acknowledging continuing strong prospects for growth, the analysis highlights considerable downside risks emanating from global uncertainties. Second section covers basic human opportunities for children in Zambia. The opportunities approach is premised on the notion that predetermined circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, place of birth, and family origins should not determine people's economic, social, and political success. A person should not have fewer opportunities in life just because she is a girl or born in a rural area. This is the core principle behind the concept of equality of opportunity and it is also the framework adopted in this report for Zambia. The analysis shows the extent to which basic opportunities for education, health, and infrastructure services in Zambia are influenced by circumstances in which children find themselves.

Tanzania continues to stand out as a model of sound economic performance in the African continent, with a growth rate of over six per cent in 2011 and 2012, surpassing other regional economies and demonstrating impressive resilience to the global economic crisis. This is the second issue of the Tanzania economic update series. The series aim to engage a broad audience in a discussion of the state of the economy in general, as well as in specific debates of topical importance in Tanzania. The current issue seeks to get the discussion going on how to achieve the structural transformation of the rural economy so that rural households can also benefit from the country's remarkable growth performance.

Despite an unfavourable global economy, economic growth in Bangladesh is projected at close to 6 percent in fiscal 2013 (FY13). Adverse external demand and domestic supply constraints continue to be a drag on growth. Shortfalls in exports and investments due to a possible protracted crisis in the euro area and internal supply constraints may underpin the moderation of growth. Investment targets of the medium term budget framework 2013 to 2017 face major obstacles in shortage of electricity and gas supplies, and poorly functioning roads and ports. One positive prospect on the investment front is the increase in foreign direct investment in FY12, which surpassed the US$ 1 billion for the second time in Bangladesh's history. Fiscal policy is back on track. Fiscal performance in FY12 was favourable, notwithstanding increasing subsidies. The overall budget deficit in FY12 is estimated at 4.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Domestic financing of the deficit declined to 3.2 percent of GDP, from 3.5 percent in FY11. Lower government borrowing from the banking system in the second half of FY12 was a welcome reversal from worrying trends in the first half of the year. The FY13 budget deficit target 5 percent of GDP is modest, though higher than the estimated 4.5 percent of FY12, and is likely to be undershot primarily because of a shortfall in the implementation of the ambitious Tk 550 billion annual development programs, by now a familiar pattern. However, the financing of the deficit may be a challenge with a projected US$2.2 billion net external financing need, substantially more than the $1.4 billion of the revised FY12 budget. The rest of the deficit is projected to be financed from domestic sources, with a still heavy 69 percent reliance on bank borrowing. Bangladesh's economic outlook is subject to several near-term risks. Possible intensification of the euro area crisis may deepen Bangladesh's export slump of the last six months; escalation of global food prices may reverse the recent decline in food inflation; global oil price shock will place the balance of payments under pressure again and shrink fiscal space; banks are susceptible to credit and market risk and the global economic vulnerabilities; and increased political instability and labour unrest may depress investments further.

The study includes: glossary; references; and annexes. A number of countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region have been severely hit by food-price crises in 2008 and are still very vulnerable to food-price volatility experienced since late 2010. Humanitarian responses to high food prices, crises, shocks, or emergency situations should help the poor avoid the consequences of the reduced affordability of a basic food basket. This is especially crucial in the first 1,000 days of life (that is, children from pregnancy until they reach 2 years of age and breastfeeding women), since most of the physical and cognitive damages due to improper nutrition in this period are irreversible. The World Bank is leading a regional study on how to improve LAC country responses so as to protect the nutritional status of the poorest and most vulnerable in times of crises and emergencies.

This report is organized into three main sections. Section one sets out the context by describing the particular challenges and opportunities related to financing agriculture, followed by defining the target group of agricultural SME s. Section two describes a set of innovative financing models. Section three then provides a framework for an indicative assessment of these models by gathering and forming observations from the case studies. The model observations are then highlighted in three types of country contexts in which bankers in developing countries may find themselves. Preliminary assessment results are presented. The report concludes with key lessons learned on innovative agricultural financing, relevant case studies, and an outlook on further work in this area. Annexes present methodologies and case studies representing the various models.

Support for Enhanced Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy Analysis (SEMEFPA), AusAID ; The Indonesia economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and social welfare. Its coverage ranges from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. International developments continue to shape Indonesia's near-term economic outlook, but the focus of attention has shifted. In late 2011 the primary concern was the deteriorating and uncertain outlook for the global economy and financial markets. Since then there has been further evidence of the slowdown in global economic momentum but also some positive signs, such as from the US, and international financial market conditions have improved. The recent sharp rise in global oil prices has added a new dimension to the situation. In particular, it has increased the projected cost of Indonesia's fuel subsidies. With the benefits of these subsidies mainly going to the wealthier segments of the population, there is a clear need to redirect this spending to more pressing development needs.

Doing business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 10 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. In a series of annual reports doing business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 183 economies, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, over time. This economy profile presents the doing business indicators for European Union. To allow useful comparison, it also provides data for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each indicator. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2011 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January December 2010).

Political uncertainties in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue to affect the short term economic prospects in the region, while major developments in the global economy over the past six months have put the region on a two-track growth path for 2012. These developments include a significant rise in crude oil prices on fears of oil supply disruptions and weak economic activity in the Eurozone. Economic growth of MENA's oil exporting countries will be strong as it rebounds from the average of 3.4 percent in 2011 to 5.4 percent in 2012. Overall growth in the region is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2012, surpassing the 3 percent growth achieved in 2011. Improvement in the growth prospects of oil exporters is due to strength in oil markets. The fiscal situation is expected to remain tenuous for oil importing countries, especially those going through transitions. Overall, inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2012, with the notable exceptions of Iran and Egypt. Subsidies are currently dampening currently dampening the effects of increased global food and energy prices in many MENA countries.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.

The paper is based on a scenario workshop held on January 20, 2009, where leading financial and private sector development experts from IFC, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank discussed the unfolding crisis. This paper is a product of the staff of the Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency of the World Bank Group. The scenarios described in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The scenarios described serve as the basis of a planning exercise and are not to be interpreted as forecasts or projections on the part of the World Bank Group or the authors of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to sketch scenarios taking into account the information currently at hand. In this way, scenarios can provide decision makers with alternative views of the future. Decision makers can test their strategies against the different ways in which the future might play out. Scenarios provide a framework for debate, leading to better policy making and strategies. They are especially useful in situations where major global changes are under way but there is huge uncertainty over what may happen. Staffs of the World Bank Group are providing these scenarios to help governments and organizations prepare for an uncertain future. Being well prepared and open to thinking about different outcomes is much better than continually being behind the curve and having to chase events.