The purpose of the article is to assess regional trends in business development in Ukraine. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the scientific works of scientists in the field of business development in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following research methods were used: PEST-analysis of the external environment of SME development in the regions; methods of statistical analysis – to assess changes in the dynamics of GRP for 2014–2018. Results. It is investigated that from 2016 until in Ukraine there was a certain economic recovery, which is confirmed by the growth of consumption and income, as well as the growth of consumer lending and remittances. But In 2018, there was a decrease in exports and imports of goods and services. Exports decreased by 2.8 % of GDP, and imports by 1.9 % of GDP compared to the previous 2017 year. The decline in exports is due to weakening external demand for domestic goods and services. Despite some difficulties, a number of reforms have been implemented in Ukraine, which has had a positive impact on the economic situation. Reforms in Ukraine are supported by the international community. In 2018, the IMF provided Ukraine with a reserve loan for a period of 14 months in the amount of $3.9 billion. Ukraine received $4.4 billion in EU macro-financial assistance US and a loan of 349 million euros under the World Bank Guarantee to ensure economic development. After the crisis of the economy in 2014, Ukraine managed to restore macroeconomic stability by adhering to flexible exchange rate limits, tight fiscal policy, financial and energy reforms. The signing of the Association Agreement with the EU in 2014 on the establishment of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU had a positive impact on Ukraine's economy. It is investigated that in 2018 the share of micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Ukraine was over 90 % of the total number of enterprises. SMEs provided more than 60 % of jobs and almost 50 % of value-added in the business sector. More than 50 % of the SME structure is concentrated in wholesale and retail trade. The downside is the fact that most SMEs are concentrated in a low value-added sector of the economy. However, the share of SMEs engaged in IT technologies has been growing rapidly over the last five years. Wholesale and retail trade has the largest share (43.1 %) in the structure of small and medium enterprises in the Odessa region. Practical meaning. The results of the analysis will allow the authorities of the country and its individual territories to develop the necessary measures to improve business conditions, improve living standards and ensure the effectiveness of economic development of the territory. Prospects for further research. Development of an economic mechanism for the transformation of business processes in the system of competitive development of territories. ; Метою статті є оцінювання регіональних тенденцій розвитку бізнесу в Україні. Методологія. Теоретичною і методологічною основою дослідження є наукові праці вчених у сфері розвитку бізнесу в Україні. Для досягнення поставленої в роботі мети були використані такі методи дослідження: PEST-аналіз зовнішнього середовища розвитку МСБ у регіонах; методи статистичного аналізу – для оцінювання зміни динаміки ВРП за 2014–2018 роки. Результати. Досліджено, що з 2016 року в Україні спостерігалося певне економічне відновлення, яке підтверджується зростанням рівня споживання та доходів населення, а також зростанням споживчого кредитування і грошових переказів. Але У 2018 році було зафіксовано зменшення рівня експорту та імпорту товарів та послуг. Експорт скоротився на 2,8% від ВВП, а імпорт на 1,9% від ВВП порівняно із попереднім 2017 роком. Скорочення експорту викликане послабленням зовнішнього попиту на вітчизняні товари і послуги. Незважаючи на певні негаразди, в Україні було здійснено ряд реформ, які позитивно вплинули на економічний стан. Здійснення реформ в Україні відбувається за підтримки міжнародної спільноти. У 2018 р. МВФ надав Україні резервне кредитування строком на 14 місяців у розміні 3,9 млрд. дол. США. Україна отримала Макрофінансову допомогу ЄС на суму 4,4 млрд дол. США та позику 349 млн євро під Гарантію Світового Банку для забезпечення економічного розвитку. Після кризового стану економіки 2014 року в Україні вдалося поновити макроекономічну стабільність за рахунок дотримання гнучких меж обмінного валютного курсу, жорсткої фіскальної політики, фінансової та енергетичної реформ. Позитивно вплинуло на економіку України підписання у 2014 р. Угоди про асоціацію з ЄС стосовно створення Поглибленої та всеохоплюючої зони вільної торгівлі з ЄС. Досліджено, що за 2018 рік в Україні питома вага мікро, малих та середніх підприємств (МСП) становила понад 90% загальної кількості підприємств. МСП забезпечувало понад 60% робочих місць і майже 50% доданої вартості у бізнес-секторі. Понад 50% у структурі МСП зосереджено у торгівлі оптовій та роздрібній. Негативний є той факт, що більша частка МСП зосереджені у секторі економіки, який характеризується низьким рівнем доданої вартості. Проте за останні п'ять років швидко зростає частка підприємств МСП, що займаються ІТ технологіями. Оптова та роздрібна торгівля займає найбільшу питому частку (43,1%) і у структурі суб'єктів малого та середнього підприємництва у Одеській області. Практичне значення. Результати аналізу дозволять владним структурам країни та окремих її територій розробити необхідні заходи для поліпшення умов ведення бізнесу, для покращення рівня життя населення та для забезпечення ефективності економічного розвитку окремої території. Перспективи подальших досліджень. Розроблення економічного механізму трансформації бізнес процесів в системі забезпечення конкурентного розвитку територій.
The purpose of the article is to assess regional trends in business development in Ukraine. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the scientific works of scientists in the field of business development in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following research methods were used: PEST-analysis of the external environment of SME development in the regions; methods of statistical analysis – to assess changes in the dynamics of GRP for 2014–2018. Results. It is investigated that from 2016 until in Ukraine there was a certain economic recovery, which is confirmed by the growth of consumption and income, as well as the growth of consumer lending and remittances. But In 2018, there was a decrease in exports and imports of goods and services. Exports decreased by 2.8 % of GDP, and imports by 1.9 % of GDP compared to the previous 2017 year. The decline in exports is due to weakening external demand for domestic goods and services. Despite some difficulties, a number of reforms have been implemented in Ukraine, which has had a positive impact on the economic situation. Reforms in Ukraine are supported by the international community. In 2018, the IMF provided Ukraine with a reserve loan for a period of 14 months in the amount of $3.9 billion. Ukraine received $4.4 billion in EU macro-financial assistance US and a loan of 349 million euros under the World Bank Guarantee to ensure economic development. After the crisis of the economy in 2014, Ukraine managed to restore macroeconomic stability by adhering to flexible exchange rate limits, tight fiscal policy, financial and energy reforms. The signing of the Association Agreement with the EU in 2014 on the establishment of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU had a positive impact on Ukraine's economy. It is investigated that in 2018 the share of micro, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Ukraine was over 90 % of the total number of enterprises. SMEs provided more than 60 % of jobs and almost 50 % of value-added in the business sector. More than 50 % of the SME structure is concentrated in wholesale and retail trade. The downside is the fact that most SMEs are concentrated in a low value-added sector of the economy. However, the share of SMEs engaged in IT technologies has been growing rapidly over the last five years. Wholesale and retail trade has the largest share (43.1 %) in the structure of small and medium enterprises in the Odessa region. Practical meaning. The results of the analysis will allow the authorities of the country and its individual territories to develop the necessary measures to improve business conditions, improve living standards and ensure the effectiveness of economic development of the territory. Prospects for further research. Development of an economic mechanism for the transformation of business processes in the system of competitive development of territories. ; Метою статті є оцінювання регіональних тенденцій розвитку бізнесу в Україні. Методологія. Теоретичною і методологічною основою дослідження є наукові праці вчених у сфері розвитку бізнесу в Україні. Для досягнення поставленої в роботі мети були використані такі методи дослідження: PEST-аналіз зовнішнього середовища розвитку МСБ у регіонах; методи статистичного аналізу – для оцінювання зміни динаміки ВРП за 2014–2018 роки. Результати. Досліджено, що з 2016 року в Україні спостерігалося певне економічне відновлення, яке підтверджується зростанням рівня споживання та доходів населення, а також зростанням споживчого кредитування і грошових переказів. Але У 2018 році було зафіксовано зменшення рівня експорту та імпорту товарів та послуг. Експорт скоротився на 2,8% від ВВП, а імпорт на 1,9% від ВВП порівняно із попереднім 2017 роком. Скорочення експорту викликане послабленням зовнішнього попиту на вітчизняні товари і послуги. Незважаючи на певні негаразди, в Україні було здійснено ряд реформ, які позитивно вплинули на економічний стан. Здійснення реформ в Україні відбувається за підтримки міжнародної спільноти. У 2018 р. МВФ надав Україні резервне кредитування строком на 14 місяців у розміні 3,9 млрд. дол. США. Україна отримала Макрофінансову допомогу ЄС на суму 4,4 млрд дол. США та позику 349 млн євро під Гарантію Світового Банку для забезпечення економічного розвитку. Після кризового стану економіки 2014 року в Україні вдалося поновити макроекономічну стабільність за рахунок дотримання гнучких меж обмінного валютного курсу, жорсткої фіскальної політики, фінансової та енергетичної реформ. Позитивно вплинуло на економіку України підписання у 2014 р. Угоди про асоціацію з ЄС стосовно створення Поглибленої та всеохоплюючої зони вільної торгівлі з ЄС. Досліджено, що за 2018 рік в Україні питома вага мікро, малих та середніх підприємств (МСП) становила понад 90% загальної кількості підприємств. МСП забезпечувало понад 60% робочих місць і майже 50% доданої вартості у бізнес-секторі. Понад 50% у структурі МСП зосереджено у торгівлі оптовій та роздрібній. Негативний є той факт, що більша частка МСП зосереджені у секторі економіки, який характеризується низьким рівнем доданої вартості. Проте за останні п'ять років швидко зростає частка підприємств МСП, що займаються ІТ технологіями. Оптова та роздрібна торгівля займає найбільшу питому частку (43,1%) і у структурі суб'єктів малого та середнього підприємництва у Одеській області. Практичне значення. Результати аналізу дозволять владним структурам країни та окремих її територій розробити необхідні заходи для поліпшення умов ведення бізнесу, для покращення рівня життя населення та для забезпечення ефективності економічного розвитку окремої території. Перспективи подальших досліджень. Розроблення економічного механізму трансформації бізнес процесів в системі забезпечення конкурентного розвитку територій.
This article analyzes the use of biographical method for studying Ukrainian on participation in the migratory processes shaping ethnic population Budjak, cultural and social characteristics, rites Danubian immigrants. Investigation of the formation of the ethnic composition of Budjak where Ukrainian took an active part, requires the use of different methods and biographical one of them. The significance of this method increases significantly in the absence or small number of sources and then biographical evidence substantially complementary understanding of the historical processes, including on ethnic processes in that region. Biographical method is interesting for us in terms of its use in ethnology. On the Historical Faculty of Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University it successfully used the famous explorer Ukrainian Cossacks Professor of History of Ukraine A. D. Bachyns'kyi (1933–1995). In the military, social and economic issues, Anatolyi Diomydovych paid attention to sources of replenishment of the Cossacks. Noting the multinational composition of the Cossacks, he noted that his national content determined by various Ukrainian regions, argued their findings based on a wide range of materials, giving priority to archival sources, and using its own methodology of historical research developed on biographical material. A. D. Bachyns'kyi biographical method primarily used to detect the presence of Ukrainian Budjak. It is known that the Census 1897 issue of ethnic identity is not related to the priorities as ascertain the proportion of different ethnic groups. However, recognizing the potential of these sources, historians pointed to them, to some extent, subjective, and the need comparison with other types of information sources. In the second half of the nineteenth century was a common practice to mark umbrella Eastern Slavic population of the region called "russkiye." Therefore, identification of the Ukrainian and Russian in Budjak was made for further research rather complex problem that is solved A. D. Bachyns'kyi tracked through the biography of immigrants of different backgrounds. Not always they contain information about ethnicity, but information, such as name, place of birth is likely to indicate precisely the origin and belong to a certain ethnic group, in this context, to Ukrainian. For example publications are quarantine certificates Danubian Cossacks. Also, researchers will describe the property, which arrived immigrants. Equally important was the use of biographical method for determining the time of appearance in the Ukrainian region clarifies the dynamics of immigrants especially in the early stages of migration. Upon learning a large amount of archival sources, A. D. Bachyns'kyi introduced to the scientific biography, which proved not only very presence in some areas, but significantly complement the chronology of Ukrainian settlement southwestern part of the desert. It is necessary to note the importance of the release of information about immigrants, because they were carriers of the regional culture. These testimonies illustrate quite specific geographic areas from which the immigrants came. It is important for ethnologists issue is relevant in the context of regional transformation clarify the consequences crops in the Black Sea and Budjak area in particular. One of the least studied is the problem of internal migration and biographical materials Ukrainian substantially complementary understanding, highlight the intensity of the migration process, ways of movement, fix temporary stop immigrants, people reasons to stay in a particular area. Biographies indicate that the intensity of internal migration was high enough. These examples do not determine the level of scale migrations, but confirm the existing practice movements of people on a fairly long distances, short-term or long stay in a particular area. Anatolyi Diomydovych scientifically worked out and introduced into scientific circulation many new archival materials. With the publication of quarantine certificates to learn about traditional Ukrainian family in the early nineteenth century, everyday items and clothing, household employment. It should be noted also that the submitted information is a valuable additional source, particularly for the study of the marriage ceremony as a part of the things described meet the required components of traditional Ukrainian dowry (dowry): chest, towels, shirts, and more. Among the things written icon married immigrants (most likely – Wedding). Note that among widowers and unmarried described things not meet towels and chest. Names clothes indicate the process of acculturation, which is reflected in particular in borrowing Turkish Ukrainian ranks. Using biographical sources have allowed scientists to examine not only the history of the Danubian Cossacks, but also provide valuable information domestic nature, personalize the process of settlement and resettlement. Biographical method in the scientific heritage of scientist shows promise in its use of Ethnology, particularly in the early stage of research on Ukrainian settlement Budjak region, places of exit immigrants, problems of internal migration patterns of peasant families, household life, ceremonies, including the wedding. ; Статья посвящена анализу использования биографического метода для изучения вопросов участия украин- цев в миграционных процессах, в формировании этнического состава населения Буджака, культурно-бытовых особенностей, обрядовости задунайских переселенцев. ; Статтю присвячено аналізу використання біографічного методу для вивчення пи- тань участі українців в міграційних процесах, формуванні етнічного населення Буджака, культурно-побутових особливостей, обрядовості задунайських переселенців. Дослідження процесів формування етнічного складу населення Буджака, в яких украї- нці брали активну участь, потребує використання різноманітних методів і біографіч- ний є одним із них. Він передбачає вивчення історії життя особистості (життєвого шляху), автобіографій та ініційованих автобіографічних описів, сповідей, біографічних продуктів діяльності особистості, свідчень очевидців і близького оточення особисто- сті – спогадів сучасників, опитувань близьких тощо.
On September 3, 2013 President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was convincing the deputies of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on expediency of adopting European integration laws that would open the way to sign Association Agreement between Ukraine and European Union in Vilnius in the fall 2013. Such kind of Association is necessary not for the government or the opposition but for Ukraine, said the President. It is, in the first place, the impetus for further reforms, rapid modernization and improvement of social standards.In this context it is worth to pay attention to European integration portfolio of activities that Petro Mohyla Black Sea State University has.The first step in the implementation of scientific and educational European integration activities was the establishment of Education and Research Teaching Center for European and Global Integration at the university in October 2006 upon agreement given by the Ministry of Education and Science. Also in this realm series of activities connected with European integration were implemented in higher educational institutions and secondary schools of the southern Ukraine.In such a way lectures, special seminars and academic conferences, workshops, information days, round tables devoted to the disclosure of political, economic and legal benefits of European integration were implemented during the course of such targeted program.A big number of activities was conducted in 2008 and 2009, when the project «Implementation of Awareness-Raising Activities on European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine in the Mykolaiv Region» commissioned by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine was carried out at the university.Diverse activities that have been conducted by the Center were annually reflected in published numerous publications by the representatives of the Center: articles for professional journals, pamphlets, booklets, monographs, etc.In addition, school teachers began to recommend their students to do research on European integration issues as part of writing their papers for contests, course works, bachelor and master's theses, and graduate and doctoral students.An important direction of work became the involvement of representatives from the department of sociology to the study of public opinion in the region regarding integration processes.An interesting result was obtained during the latest public opinion monitoring that was carried out in December 2012 – January 2013. It provided the following conclusions about the increase of supporters of European integration processes in the region and the feasibility of deepening attention to the implementation of information and discussion campaigns.Creation of a specialized Jean Monnet department at the university in May 2011 was the next step in strengthening research and educational integration of the university in the framework of convergence. Moreover, the order of its creation was read by rector in the presence of the former Head of the European Union Delegation to Ukraine, Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira, and representatives of 11 EU embassies. It is worth noting that in 2012 the project «European Integration: Implementation of European Standards and Principles in Ukraine», which was proposed by the Jean Monnet department members won in an educational competition in Brussels.During one year implementation of the project new books and dozens of articles on integration issues were published. Moreover, a number of important activities, including one of the most significant – a scientific conference held in June 2013 in Crimea titled «Olbian Forum – 2013: Strategies of the Black Sea Region Countries in the Geopolitical Space», were organized.The conference was attended by representatives of ministries and governmental departments, civil servants and politicians of Ukraine, researchers not only from Petro Mohyla Black Sea State University but also from other national and foreign universities and research institutions, members of the European integration centers of Crimea, Lviv, Odessa, Donetsk, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Chernigov, Lutsk, Sumy, Kherson and other regions of Ukraine.All research sessions at the conference were conducted in an active manner, but the most active ones were: «European Union: Stages and Current Trends (history, achievements and challenges)», «European Standards and Principles: the Problem of Their Implementation in the South and Other Regions of Ukraine» and «The Social Responsibility of Universities: the Social Dimension in the Context of European Values».The conference closure results contained proposals on the necessity of creating a coordination center that would generalize information and research activities carried out by the Jean Monnet program in Ukraine. Also the resolution on the need for publishing a separate student edition of Jean Monnet program was adopted, where knowledge and information on European integration including implementation of European standards and principles in different regions of Ukraine in terms of convergence would be articulated.Today University representatives are engaged in a research entitled «Scientific Support of Implementation of European Social Standards in the Southern Region of Ukraine». The research is performed in the framework of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine thematic plan.The abovementioned materials show a convincing and coherent European integration activities carried out by the administration, faculty and most importantly, students of Petro Mohyla BSSU, as recently, the President of Ukraine V. Yanukovych stated in a speech on the occasion of 22nd anniversary of Independence of Ukraine on the 24 August 2013 that association with European Union should become an important stimulus for Ukraine to further develop modern European state. ; В статье кратко раскрывается сущность Соглашения об Ассоциации Украины с ЕС и анализируются основные евроинтеграционные наработки Черноморского государственного университета имени Петра Могилы. ; У статті коротко розкривається сутність Угоди про Асоціацію України з ЄС та аналізуються основні євроінтеграційні доробки Чорноморського державного університету імені Петра Могили.
The main direction of state policy regarding the guaranty safety and quality of animal products is the creation of conditions that are safe for human health during the production and sale of food raw materials. According to current legislation of Ukraine responsibility for the safety of food products placed on the manufacturer but government control plays an important role. This is especially true today, when almost 69.5% of meat is produced in private home farms. It is mainly sold in the agro-industrial markets. The State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety should perform the conditions of modern European regulation and base its activities on the basis of risk assessment. One of the risks are parasitosis, as their negative effect affects the health of millions of people in the world. In this cjnnection the purpose of the study was to analyze the dynamics of the identification of invasive diseases at the stages of slaughter of animals and the sale of slaughter products. Research material was reporting on veterinary medicine (Form№5-vet and Form№6-vet) of a number of districts of Odessa region for 2014‒2017. It was founded that 75943 animals were slaughtered in 2014‒2017: 91.18% pigs, 8.14% cattle and 0.68% sheep. The analysis of the dynamics of slaughter, depending on its location, showed that from 41.85% to 99.81% of animals were slaughtered at courtyard. According to the results of veterinary-sanitary control and supervision during the slaughter for the studied years there were no cases of diseases. It was founded that 22617 animal's carcasses came to the agrofood markets of the regions for the years 2014‒2017, among which 89.56% were pig carcasses, 10,11% cattle carcasses and only 0.33% sheep. According to results of veterinary-sanitary examination in the conditions of SLVSE in the markets, specialists established 351 cases of diseases. In the study of pig carcasses 246 cases of diseases were detected: among them of non-communicable (45.93%) and invasive (54.07%) etiology (echinococcosis). Luring the expertise of cattle carcases was founded 96 cases of diseases: – dicroceliosis (98.96%) and exinococcosis (1.04%); during the expertise of sheep's carcases – 9 cases of diseases – dicroceliosis (66.67%) and exinococcosis (33.33%). Considering that during the reporting period, according to the results of veterinary-sanitary control and supervision during the slaughter of animals, no cases of diseases were detected, but at the same time the number of cases of detection of invasive diseases during veterinary-sanitary examination in SLVSE on markets constantly increases risk management at the stage of slaughter can be considered not sufficiently effective. Also, the results of our research indicate that the current system for managing the safety of slaughter products is still based primarily on the study of the final product. It does not take into account all possible risks at the previous stages of production. This system can't fully guarantee to consumer safety of products. ; Основним напрямом державної політики щодо гарантованої безпечності та якості продуктів тваринного походження є створення умов безпеки для здоров'я людей під час виробництва та реалізації продовольчої сировини. Згідно з чинним законодавством України відповідальність за безпечність харчової продукції покладена на виробника, але важливу роль відіграє і державний контроль. Особливо це актуально сьогодні коли майже 69,5% м'яса виробляється у приватних селянських господарствах, що в переважній кількості реалізується на агропромислових ринках. Державна служба України з питань безпеки харчових продуктів повинна виконувати вимоги сучасної європейської регламентації та організувати свою діяльність на основі засад оцінки ризиків, одним з яких є паразитози, адже їх негативний вплив відбивається на здоров'ї мільйонів людей у світі. В зв'язку з цим метою дослідження було проаналізувати динаміку виявлення інвазійних захворювань на етапах забою тварин і реалізації продуктів забою. Матеріалом досліджень була звітність з питань ветеринарної медицини (Форма№5-вет і Форма№6-вет) низки районів Одеської області за 2014–2017роки. Встановлено, що за 2014–2017 роки в районах забито 75943 голів тварин, з яких 91,18% становили свині, 8,14% велика рогата худоба і 0,68% – вівці. Аналіз динаміки забою залежно від місця його проведення виявив, що від 41,85% до 99,81% забою тварин проводиться подвірно, а за результатами ветеринарно-санітарного контролю і нагляду – під час забою за дослідні роки не було виявлено жодного випадку хвороб. Встановлено, що за 2014–2017 роки на агропродовольчі ринки районів для реалізації надійшло 22617 туш тварин, з яких 89,56% становили туші свиней, 10,11% туші великої рогатої худоби і лише 0,33% – туші овець. За результатами ветеринарно-санітарної експертизи в умовах ДЛВСЕ на ринках фахівцями було зафіксовано 351 випадок хвороб. Зокрема за дослідження туш свиней виявлено 246 випадків хвороби незаразної (45,93%) та інвазійної (54,07%) етіології, а саме ехінококоз; за експертизи туш ВРХ виявлено 96 випадків хвороб – дикроцеліоз (98,96%) та ехінококоз (1,04%); за експертизи туш овець – 9 випадків хвороб – дикроцеліоз (66,67%) та ехінококоз (33,33%). Враховуючи, що за звітний період за результатами ветеринарно-санітарного контролю і нагляду під час забою тварин жодного випадку хвороб виявлено не було, а натомість кількість випадків виявлення інвазійних хвороб під час ветеринарно-санітарної експертизи в умовах ДЛВСЕ на агропромислових ринках невпинно зростає, систему управління ризиками на етапі забою можна вважати недостатньо ефективною. Також результати наших досліджень свідчать про той факт, що діюча в державі система управління безпечністю продуктів забою і досі ґрунтується передовсім на досліджені кінцевого продукту, не враховує всі можливі ризики на попередніх етапах виробництва і тим самим не може повністю гарантувати споживачу безпечність продукту.
У статті висвітлено питання виникнення та розвитку телефонного сполучення в українських губерніях Російської імперії в модерний період. Звертається увага на чинники, які посприяли появі наприкінці ХІХ ст. перших телефонних мереж у таких великих містах як Одеса, Київ, Харків тощо. Підкреслено, що до початку ХХ ст. телефонні станції вже запрацювали в 23 губернських та повітових містах українських земель. В наведеному матеріалі охарактеризовано особливості функціонування як урядових, так і приватних телефонних мереж. При цьому звернуто увагу, що кількість телефонних апаратів, особливо в урядових установах, постійно зростала. Автор також зупиняється на питаннях доступності телефону для городян модерної доби, в тому числі з'ясовує вартість користування його послугами, зручність зв'язку тощо. Наголошується, що перш за все телефоном тоді користувалися підприємці, великі торговці, фінансисти, юристи, лікарі, представники правоохоронних структур, діячі органів місцевого самоврядування. Крім того, в статті проаналізовано особливості праці службовців телефонних станцій, зокрема телефоністок. Зазначено, що їх робота була доволі складною, а платня, яку вони отримували, становила в цілому невеликі суми. Звернуто увагу й на певні проблеми в діяльності телефонних мереж в українських землях імперії Романових – технічні недоліки у царині зв'язку, мала місткість телефонних станцій, висока вартість платні за телефонні послуги тощо. Відповідно, на кожні 100 мешканців царської Росії (станом на 1909 р.) припадало лише 0,1 абонента телефонної мережі. Тоді як, наприклад, у Сполучених Штатах Америки на кожні 100 мешканців припадало 7,6 власників телефонів. Утім підкреслено, що телефон тоді все ж став важливою ознакою становлення в Україні зародків нового, індустріального суспільства. Адже в українському місті кінця ХІХ – початку ХХ ст. можна було спостерігати стрімкий розвиток техніки зв'язку та його проникнення в усі сфери життя тогочасного соціуму. Під впливом телефонного сполучення радикально трансформувалося повсякдення людей, їх побут. ; The article covers the emergence and development of telecommunication in the Ukrainian provinces of the Russian Empire in the modern period. Attention is drawn to the factors that contributed to the emergence in the late nineteenth century. the first telephone networks in such large cities as Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov, etc. It was emphasized that by the beginning of the twentieth century. telephone exchanges have already started working in 23 provincial and county cities of Ukrainian lands. This article describes the features of functioning of both government and private telephone networks. At the same time, attention was paid to the fact that the number of telephone sets, especially in government institutions, was constantly increasing. The author also dwells on questions of the availability of the phone for the modern city dwellers, including finding out the cost of using his services, the convenience of communication, etc. It is noted that first of all the phone was used by entrepreneurs, large traders, financiers, lawyers, doctors, law enforcement officials, and officials of local self-government bodies. In addition, the article analyzes the peculiarities of the work of the employees of telephone stations, in particular telephone operators. It was noted that their work was rather difficult, and the salary they received was generally small amounts. The attention was also paid to certain problems in the activity of telephone networks in the Ukrainian lands of the Romanov empire - technical deficiencies in the area of communication, small capacity of telephone stations, high cost of payment for telephone services, etc. Accordingly, for every 100 inhabitants of tsarist Russia (as of 1909) there were only 0.1 subscribers of the telephone network. For example, in the United States, for every 100 inhabitants, 7.6 phone holders accounted for. However, it was emphasized that the phone, however, became an important sign of the emergence in Ukraine of the new, industrialized society. After all, in the Ukrainian city of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. it was possible to observe the rapid development of communication technology and its penetration into all spheres of life of the contemporary society. Under the influence of telephone communication, the everyday life of people, their way of life was radically transformed. ; В статье освещены вопросы возникновения и развития телефонного сообщение в украинских губерниях Российской империи в модернный период. Обращается внимание на факторы, которые способствовали появлению в конце XIX в. первых телефонных сетей в таких крупных городах как Одесса, Киев, Харьков и др. Подчеркнуто, что к началу ХХ в. телефонные станции уже заработали в 23 губернских и уездных городах украинских земель. В приведенном материале охарактеризованы особенности функционирования как правительственных, так и частных телефонных сетей. При этом обращено внимание, что количество телефонных аппаратов, особенно в правительственных учреждениях, постоянно росло. Автор также останавливается на вопросах доступности телефона для горожан современной эпохи, в том числе выясняет стоимость пользования его услугами, удобство связи и тому подобное. Отмечается, что прежде всего телефоном тогда пользовались предприниматели, крупные торговцы, финансисты, юристы, врачи, представители правоохранительных структур, деятели органов местного самоуправления. Кроме того, в статье анализируются особенности труда служащих телефонных станций, в частности телефонисток. Отмечено, что их работа была довольно сложной, а плата, которую они получали, составляла в целом небольшие суммы. Обращено внимание и на определенные проблемы в деятельности телефонных сетей в украинских землях империи Романовых - технические недостатки в области связи, малая емкость телефонных станций, высокая стоимость платы за телефонные услуги и тому подобное. Соответственно, на каждые 100 жителей царской России (по состоянию на 1909) приходилось лишь 0,1 абонента телефонной сети. Тогда как, например, в Соединенных Штатах Америки на каждые 100 жителей приходилось 7,6 владельцев телефонов. Впрочем подчеркнуто, что телефон тогда все же стал важным признаком становления в Украине зародышей нового, индустриального общества. Ведь в украинском городе конца XIX - начала ХХ в. можно было наблюдать стремительное развитие техники связи и его проникновение во все сферы жизни тогдашнего социума. Под влиянием телефонного сообщения радикально трансформировалось повседневности людей, их быт.
Systematicity is an important characteristic of the integrity of knowledge in the modern scientific knowledge and one of the important aspects of the organization of their transmission. The system interpretation of knowledge about complex objects is most adequate for their operation and development. In accordance with the fact that advertising is becoming principle on the field of mass communications, it becomes more interesting for scientists as a system that operates by its own rules and is used to achieve the goal of communicators who have well known techniques which calls to the conscious and subconscious levels of the human mind. Thus, in recent advertising it is based on approach to interpreting this as a sign system with its own means of reflection and interpretation of reality. In the parametric General Theory of System A. I. Uiemov developed a system-wide characteristics or properties that characterize any items which were presented in the form of system models - the system-wide parameters. Specific characteristics of the relationships and properties are the elements to all systems without exception. The system is definitive when it has define concept, structure and substrate. A. I. Uiemov also considered certain principles of classification systems. He proposed to classify the system parameters on the system research aspects of the object, or the categorical characteristics of the system parameter. Classification of system parameters is based on his identification system and corresponds some formal definitions. A. I. Uiemov considered two groups of such parameters: 1) attribute system parameters; 2) relational system-wide a powerful tool of socialization of the individual, prevention and behavioral deviations of value, even though today the majority of cases it is stipulated certain phenomenon or criticism without offering reasonable alternatives. It is experiencing a period of relatively active development and acquires its own specificity, due to social and political and social and cultural reasons. In this case social advertising, taking into account its potential and realized functions, is increasingly attached to the creation of general advertising myth that reflects and forms the life view of society world members by offering and maintaining valuable references and ideas. Social advertising is an integral part of all three sectors of social work (public services, social business (which in Ukraine is actually absent) and nongovernmental organizations),organizing large-scale advertising campaigns. Its amount, and types and thematic range gradually increase, but the social advertising is not always clear, does not adequately address the problem of the target audience, does not use in full of the entire arsenal of promotional products effects because of this the expected social impact is partial and mosaic. Social advertising has its positive impact and is essential for the development of society itself. With its improvements, determining the precise range of manufacturers, publishers, and bringing to its creation specialists in the social and psychological problems, it will help improve the Ukrainian society. Social advertising today is an effective tool to influence the mindset of people, close to the ideology, morality, religion, and modern mythmaking is able to perform axiological and humanistic function, to build a democratic society humanistic installation mass consciousness. Social advertising on the one hand can cause a positive response in the community, contribute to the harmonization of relations, enhance social activity of the population, on the other hand created on position of subjectivity, without assessing the real social needs of its audience, may contribute to social aggression. Therefore, the development and implementation of projects of social advertising requires a complex interdisciplinary research aimed at identifying factors contributing to the realization of its potential. Broadcasting in society human and national values, social advertising expands and forms a cultural basis of society, «social capital», which gradually begins to affect economic development. ; Социальная реклама рассмотрена как система с точки зрения общей параметрической теории систем А. И. Уемова. Системная интерпретация знаний о сложных объектах наиболее адекватна характеру их функционирования и развития. В соответствии с тем, что реклама приобретает все больший вес в сфере массовых коммуникаций, она начинает интересовать ученых как система, функционирующая по своим законам и пользуется для достижения поставленной цели издавна известными приемами обращения к человеческой психике на сознательном и подсознательном уровнях. В последнее время к рекламе применяют подходы, основанные на понимании ее как знаковой системы со своими средствами отражения и трактовки действительности. ; Соціальну рекламу розглянуто як систему з точки зору загальної параметричної теорії систем. А. І.Уйомова. Системна інтерпретація знань про складні об'єкти найбільш адекватна характеру їхнього функціонування та розвитку. Відповідно до того, що реклама набуває все більшої ваги у сфері масових комунікацій, вона починає цікавити науковців як система, що функціонує за власними законами й використовує задля досягнення поставленої комунікаторами мети здавна відомі прийоми апелювання до людської психіки на свідомому та підсвідомому рівнях. Так, останнім часом до реклами застосовують підходи, засновані на витлумаченні її як знакової системи зі своїми засобами віддзеркалення та трактування дійсності. Фаріда Тихомірова, Павло Тихоміров СИСТЕМНА МЕТОДОЛОГІЯ ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ РЕКЛАМИСоціальну рекламу розглянуто як систему з точки зору загальної параметричної теорії систем. А. І.Уйомова. Системна інтерпретація знань про складні об'єкти найбільш адекватна характеру їхнього функціонування та розвитку. Відповідно до того, що реклама набуває все більшої ваги у сфері масових комунікацій, вона починає цікавити науковців як система, що функціонує за власними законами й використовує задля досягнення поставленої комунікаторами мети здавна відомі прийоми апелювання до людської психіки на свідомому та підсвідомому рівнях. Так, останнім часом до реклами застосовують підходи, засновані на витлумаченні її як знакової системи зі своїми засобами віддзеркалення та трактування дійсності. соціальна реклама; система цінностей; знакова система; атрибутивні системні параметри; комунікативна практика. Farida Tykhomirova Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University Pavlo Tykhomirov
Systematicity is an important characteristic of the integrity of knowledge in the modern scientific knowledge and one of the important aspects of the organization of their transmission. The system interpretation of knowledge about complex objects is most adequate for their operation and development. In accordance with the fact that advertising is becoming principle on the field of mass communications, it becomes more interesting for scientists as a system that operates by its own rules and is used to achieve the goal of communicators who have well known techniques which calls to the conscious and subconscious levels of the human mind. Thus, in recent advertising it is based on approach to interpreting this as a sign system with its own means of reflection and interpretation of reality. In the parametric General Theory of System A. I. Uiemov developed a system-wide characteristics or properties that characterize any items which were presented in the form of system models - the system-wide parameters. Specific characteristics of the relationships and properties are the elements to all systems without exception. The system is definitive when it has define concept, structure and substrate. A. I. Uiemov also considered certain principles of classification systems. He proposed to classify the system parameters on the system research aspects of the object, or the categorical characteristics of the system parameter. Classification of system parameters is based on his identification system and corresponds some formal definitions. A. I. Uiemov considered two groups of such parameters: 1) attribute system parameters; 2) relational system-wide a powerful tool of socialization of the individual, prevention and behavioral deviations of value, even though today the majority of cases it is stipulated certain phenomenon or criticism without offering reasonable alternatives. It is experiencing a period of relatively active development and acquires its own specificity, due to social and political and social and cultural reasons. In this case social advertising, taking into account its potential and realized functions, is increasingly attached to the creation of general advertising myth that reflects and forms the life view of society world members by offering and maintaining valuable references and ideas. Social advertising is an integral part of all three sectors of social work (public services, social business (which in Ukraine is actually absent) and nongovernmental organizations),organizing large-scale advertising campaigns. Its amount, and types and thematic range gradually increase, but the social advertising is not always clear, does not adequately address the problem of the target audience, does not use in full of the entire arsenal of promotional products effects because of this the expected social impact is partial and mosaic. Social advertising has its positive impact and is essential for the development of society itself. With its improvements, determining the precise range of manufacturers, publishers, and bringing to its creation specialists in the social and psychological problems, it will help improve the Ukrainian society. Social advertising today is an effective tool to influence the mindset of people, close to the ideology, morality, religion, and modern mythmaking is able to perform axiological and humanistic function, to build a democratic society humanistic installation mass consciousness. Social advertising on the one hand can cause a positive response in the community, contribute to the harmonization of relations, enhance social activity of the population, on the other hand created on position of subjectivity, without assessing the real social needs of its audience, may contribute to social aggression. Therefore, the development and implementation of projects of social advertising requires a complex interdisciplinary research aimed at identifying factors contributing to the realization of its potential. Broadcasting in society human and national values, social advertising expands and forms a cultural basis of society, «social capital», which gradually begins to affect economic development. ; Социальная реклама рассмотрена как система с точки зрения общей параметрической теории систем А. И. Уемова. Системная интерпретация знаний о сложных объектах наиболее адекватна характеру их функционирования и развития. В соответствии с тем, что реклама приобретает все больший вес в сфере массовых коммуникаций, она начинает интересовать ученых как система, функционирующая по своим законам и пользуется для достижения поставленной цели издавна известными приемами обращения к человеческой психике на сознательном и подсознательном уровнях. В последнее время к рекламе применяют подходы, основанные на понимании ее как знаковой системы со своими средствами отражения и трактовки действительности. ; Соціальну рекламу розглянуто як систему з точки зору загальної параметричної теорії систем. А. І.Уйомова. Системна інтерпретація знань про складні об'єкти найбільш адекватна характеру їхнього функціонування та розвитку. Відповідно до того, що реклама набуває все більшої ваги у сфері масових комунікацій, вона починає цікавити науковців як система, що функціонує за власними законами й використовує задля досягнення поставленої комунікаторами мети здавна відомі прийоми апелювання до людської психіки на свідомому та підсвідомому рівнях. Так, останнім часом до реклами застосовують підходи, засновані на витлумаченні її як знакової системи зі своїми засобами віддзеркалення та трактування дійсності. Фаріда Тихомірова, Павло Тихоміров СИСТЕМНА МЕТОДОЛОГІЯ ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ РЕКЛАМИСоціальну рекламу розглянуто як систему з точки зору загальної параметричної теорії систем. А. І.Уйомова. Системна інтерпретація знань про складні об'єкти найбільш адекватна характеру їхнього функціонування та розвитку. Відповідно до того, що реклама набуває все більшої ваги у сфері масових комунікацій, вона починає цікавити науковців як система, що функціонує за власними законами й використовує задля досягнення поставленої комунікаторами мети здавна відомі прийоми апелювання до людської психіки на свідомому та підсвідомому рівнях. Так, останнім часом до реклами застосовують підходи, засновані на витлумаченні її як знакової системи зі своїми засобами віддзеркалення та трактування дійсності. соціальна реклама; система цінностей; знакова система; атрибутивні системні параметри; комунікативна практика. Farida Tykhomirova Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University Pavlo Tykhomirov
Numerous researches of the art of music in a regional aspect have become one of the priority directions of the Ukrainian musical science. It is an important constituent of an objective representation of musical artistic achievements in the national and foreign musical world. Elucidation of the musical process in villages, towns and cities of Ukraine (socio-locuses – V.Kulyk) is quite necessary for a revival of our national musical gains, which in the period of the Soviet musical historiography were analysed insufficiently. The topicality of regional researches lies in a possibility of reproducing the history of Ukrainian music in all its versatility and integrity in counterbalance to the typical for the previous decades fragmentariness. Investigation of forms and peculiarities of the music life of cities and towns of Ukraine, cognition of their sense relatedness in the context of peculiarities of the national mentality predetermines a basis for the scientific conception of regional scientific investigations of the present day Ukrainian musical science. The direction of the vectors of the Ukrainian philosophical, culturological, socio-aesthetical thought, ethnomusicology, musical sociology at regional problems is predetermined by the present day socio-political conditions of democratization and humanization of social relations in Ukraine, the possibility of cities, towns and settlements of every region on the basis of an all-national program to revive many arts traditions of the past days.In such a way it becomes possible to learn concrete facts about the locality which has its own historical and cultural value but is not adjusted to the generally accepted scheme. It is worth while to mention works by such culturologists as V.Chernets, V.Leontiyeva, V.Lychkovakh as well as the historians P.Tronko, G.Samoilenko, M.Vodzinsky in the row of key papers on theoretical aspects of regional problems. Many scientific papers, specifically, by M.Zahaikevich, K.Shamayeva, O.Kononova,T. Martynyuk, V. Kuzyk, B. Filtz,V. Mitlytska, L.Kyianovska, O.Vasyuta, A.Lytvynenko and O.Shapovalova are dedicated to the problems of moulding regional arts environment as a systemic organization of musical culture. The goal of the article is elucidation of some ethno-regional aspects of the Ukrainian musicology in the context of systemic understanding of the national musical legacy.Musical regionalistics, as a comparatively young branch of Ukrainian musicology, dwells at the stage of forming scientific and practical context. Historically, being built up in the 1960-ies within historical musicology at the beginning of the XXI century it became a complex direction of researches not only of the musical culture of majorcities, such as Kyiv, Kharkov, Lviv, Odessa, but also of small towns and villages of Ukraine, as "cultural socio-locuses" in which there exist artistic forms of creative activities of their inhabitants belonging to both professionals and amateurs: composers, singers, musical instrument players, choire, orchestra, dancing groups of educational and cultural establishments. The term belongs to the researcher V.Kuzyk, who for the first time adapts the theory of cultural localization on the national Ukrainian ground from the position of historical and political statehood.A considerable part of regional problems is the study of musical local lore, in the field of whose investigation lies finding and working out of local musical lore material (archives, mass media, publicism, private documents of cultural workers); interaction of the material-natural (architectural edifices, the landscape of the town) and spiritual and cultural (art traditions in a historical aspect, polyethnical structure of the population, renditorial and composer activities) factors in the musical surroundings of the town, as well as forms of participation of its citizens in local designs and arrangemnts (urban, regional, national, international competitions and festivals, fairs, concerts, calendar and folk ritual festivities). In such a way a revival of culture and arts connections of generations is exercised, whose natural evolution had been broken by the pre-programmed policy of the totalitarian epoch.In the categorial and conceptual sphere of music folklore the term "musical surroundings" is being widely spread. It is a totality of all the musical aspects of the culture of a town (village, region), which is formed due to the activities of professional and amateur musicians, representatives of the academic and folk musical culture.Undersnanding (comprehension) of its essence is conducive to the cognition of social experience of nations, historical and cultual memory of ethno-communities, gives an opportunity to find out local-regional peculiarities of musical life of certain socio-locuses. Symptoms of its formation and development are historical continuity in preservation of musical values; the dynamics of music movement in the dialectics of traditions and innovating; reproductive and creative activities of citizens directed on creating and dissemination of music aesthetic values ; existence of establishments of culture and education as places of materialization by subjects of musical creative activity (renditional and composer's). An essential factor of the musical environment is the musical art as a philosophical category of culture which influences the inner spiritual life of people, as a psychological necessity of the nation, indicator of social maturity, synthethizer of artistic experience.Thus, the regional direction of investigations of Ukrainian musicology at the present day stage is characterized by cognition of forms of music life of a small town, attracts researchers' attention by idiosyncratic manifestations offolk and professional creativeness in it, which organically and harmoniously fits in the all-national space of Ukraine,European and world musical culture. ; Стаття посвящена раскрытию составляющих региональной проблематики современного украинского музыковедения, среди которых музыкальное краеведение, музыкальная среда. Они являются основными в исследовании музыкальной культуры и искусства в большых и малых городах Украины. ; Стаття присвячена розкриттю складових регіональної проблематики сучасного українського музикознавства, серед яких музичне краєзнавство, музичне середовище. Вони є провідними в дослідженні музичної культури й мистецтва у великих та малих містах України.
2009/2010 ; L'ordine stabilito a Yalta e' crollato insieme al Muro di Berlino. Con la fine della guerra fredda l'Urss e' scomparsa, lasciando al suo posto la Russia, ridemensionata al punto da classificarsi nel 2004 in termini PIL a parita' di potere d' aquisto al decimo posto mondiale dopo il Brasile. Le sue spese militari in dollari erano pari a 1/23 di quelle del Pentagono (dati di SIPRI). La fine del Bipolarismo ha inaugurato una nuova configurazione: quella Unipolare, con i soli Stati Uniti definiti come "iperpotenza". Il mondo e' profondamente mutato, e gli equilibri dell'epoca bipolare sono diventati un ricordo del passato. L' indipendenza delle cinque repubbliche centro-asiatiche (Kazakistan, Kirghisistan, Tagikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) e delle tre caucasiche (Armenia, Azerbaigian, Georgia) al seguito della dissoluzione dell'Unione Sovietica, ha comportato un completo sconvolgimento dello spazio geopolitico. E' impossibile non rilevare la straordinaria posizione geopolitica di questi stati. Essi sorgono, infatti, al centro della massa euroasiatica, nel cuore di quella "Terra Centrale" che Halford Mackinder considerava la "chiave" del dominio mondiale, all'incrocio di civiltà millenarie, lungo quella che fu la "Via della seta" e, finalmente, in prossimità del Medio Oriente. I dirigenti di Mosca hanno tardato a valutare in tutta la loro portata i cambiamenti geopolitici del dopo guerra fredda, e in particolare la determinazione di Washington ad approfittare dell'indebolimento dell'influenza russa per rafforzare le sue posizioni strategiche dal Caucaso all'Asia Centrale.La perdita dell'influenza di Mosca e' iniziata con la Perestrojka, mentre si rafforzavano i movimenti nazionalistici. La nascita di stati indipendenti ha fatto cessare qualsiasi forma di controllo diretto, mentre i blocchi legati ai conflitti acceleravano il crollo dei legami economici. La determinazione della Georgia a sganciarsi al più presto dall'influenza russa e' anche il risultato della strumentalizzazione da parte di Mosca dei conflitti locali che, fin dai primi anni '90 sono continuati (Abkasia, Ossezia del Sud). Mosca non appariva come una risorsa per la risoluzione di questi conflitti; al contrario, ha tentato di utilizzarli per i propri fini. E' stato, questo, uno dei principali argomenti avanzati dagli americani nel 1997, al momento della creazione del Guam (Georgia, Ucraina, Azerbaijan, Moldavia). Gli Stati Uniti sono incontestabilmente i maggiori protagonisti della ricomposizione dello spazio post-sovietico, con tutta una gamma di interventi: sia trattati bilaterali di cooperazione economica e militare, sia trattati multilaterali, quali il sostegno dato alla creazione di Guam (Georgia, Ucraina, Azerbaijan, Moldavia). Gli attentati dell'11 settembre 2001 forniscono agli Stati Uniti l'occasione per piazzare le proprie pedine nell'ambito 'antiterrorismo" nel cuore dell'area euroasiatica, al fine di garantire la sicurezza degli accessi alle ricchezze petrolifere del Mar Caspio, (in piena collaborazione militare in particolare nel Uzbekistan, Kirgistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan). In Georgia, strategicamente importante per Washington, sono sorte numerose ONG locali, finanziate e sostenute dalle ONG estere e da organismi internazionali. I finanziamenti vanno a programmi di ogni genere, ma sempre con l'imposizione di un modello unico. La strategia di Washington, finalizzata al duraturo indebolimento della Russia nell'ambito del suo spazio tradizionale, viene completata dalle rivoluzioni politiche: in Georgia alla fine dell 2003, in Ucraina alla fine dell 2004. Da allora la percezione delle minacce per la Russia si e' evoluta sino al punto in cui il potere militare degli USA e della NATO e stato definito come la principale minaccia militare, come affermato da Putin nei suoi discorsi (con la sua affermazione la minaccia missilistica farebbe tornare USA e Russia ai tempi della guerra fredda). Come sappiamo la Sicurezza Energetica e' priorita assoluta, punto cardine dello sviluppo dello Stato. La dipendenza energetica influenza direttamente la capacita' di uno Stato di esercitare il suo potere nel campo della sicurezza. Gli Stati importatori sono particolarmente vulnerabili di fronte alla minaccia di una loro interruzione. Il Petrolio e' protagonista di molte crisi internazionali, ha provocato guerre e alleanze internazionali. La decisione sul trasporto del greggio sui mercati internazionali non solo e' una priorita' assoluta, ma riveste una piu' profonda valenza geopolitica. Molteplici segnali indicano chiaramente la volontà e la determinazione del Cremlino a perseguire un disegno neo-imperiale nelle aree ex-sovietiche dell' "estero vicino". L'essenziale per Putin - Medvedev è mantenere il controllo dell'hard core, ovvero l'unità e centralizzazione dello Stato, la coerenza geo-politica. Oggi ciò che conta per Mosca è rafforzarsi, durare. La scelta unipolare induce le Potenze di rango inferiore ad allearsi tra di esse per contrabilanciare l'egemonia dell'Iperpotenza. La politica di pressione energetica non è una novità: questa, gia' ideata negli anni '90, e'stata perfezionata nell'era Putin, il cui piu' ambizioso sogno e' quello di controllare l'intero sistema di distribuzione regionale del gas in Europa, secondo il principio seguente: chi controlla le pipeline, controlla l'acquirente/buyer – ed, in qualche misura, il Paese produttore di gas. Così, prima tappa del progetto di Vladimir Vladimirovich è l'Europa, dove Mosca ha stabilito stretti e collaudati legami con alcuni governi (Germania, in primis, il gasdotto sottomarino baltico tra Russia e Germania. gasdotto sottomarino posato nel Mar Baltico che permetterà a Gazprom di portare il gas russo in Germania e nel resto dell'Europa nord-occidentale, forse persino in Gran Bretagna.) e compagnie energetiche per organizzare una grande rete di sicurezza e business. La "Sicurezza energetica" è oggi il servizio più importante che Mosca vuole vendere all'Europa. Tuttavia esiste un ostacolo, la cosiddetta "Nuova Europa" di Rumsfeld: tutta la "Nuova frontiera orientale" della UE e della NATO, dai Paesi Baltici a Polonia, Ucraina, Georgia, è percepita da Mosca come ostile: NATO dell'Est. L'incubo per Mosca e anche il "corridoio" Caspio - Azerbajan – Georgia - Mar Nero – Odessa (Ukraina) (già esiste l'oleodotto Odessa – Brody con possibile estensione fino a Danzica, Mar Baltico) per portare il gas centroasiatico direttamente alla "Nuova Europa", bypassando la Russia; in prospettiva fino al terminale di Danzica (Mar Baltico, Polonia), dove è possibile liquefare e mandare il gas via mare agli USA; oppure da Brody avviarlo alla commercializzazione regionale via Ucraina e Polonia. Mosca ha percezione della minaccia: già da tempo compagnie occidentali che operano nel Caspio azero e kazako hanno costruito postazioni sulla costa del Mar Nero per favorire i futuri flussi di idrocarburi centro-asiatici verso occidente. Inoltre l'ingresso nella UE di Romania e Bulgaria ha reso attuali i progetti di "corridoi" per portare il gas azero e turkmeno in Europa via Caspio – Caucaso – Turchia – Europa sud-orientale (per esempio il progetto Nabucco), escludendo Mosca. Infine è operativo l'oleodotto BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan), che per ora trasporta solo petrolio azero fino alle coste del Mediterraneo orientale, bypassando i Dardanelli e la Russia. In un non lontano domani si potrebbe realizzare una pipeline sottomarina caspica, in grado di portare anche il greggio kazako di Tengiz, Karatchaganak, Kashagan, sottraendolo alla servitù delle pipeline russe. Di conseguenza per l'intero East-West Energy Corridor ci sono alcune preoccupazioni. I conflitti nel Caucaso: tra Armenia e Azerbaijan rigurdante di Nagorno Karabach e in Georgia (Abkazia e Ossetia del Sud) . A partire dal crollo dell'URSS, la Georgia raggiunta l' indipendenza, ha dovuto lottare per proteggere la propria integrità territoriale. A causa dei conflitti con le repubbliche separatiste di Abkhazie e Ossezia del Sud, protrattisi fra il 1990 e il 1993, con particolare violenza nel 1992-1993, Tbilisi aveva perduto de facto la sovranità su due territori anche prima della drammatica svolta del 2008, con il conflitto russo-georgiano e il riconoscimento da parte russa dell'indipendenza delle due regioni. Questa guerra possiamo definirla come lo scontro di interessi Russo-Americani. Inoltre , l'evoluzione in senso filo-atlantista della politica georgiana, soprattutto dopo il 2003, e stata la base del grave inasprimento dei rapporti con la Russia, di cui la Georgia dipende in gran parte per l'approvvigionamento energetico. La questione del conflitto russo-georgiano, il problema della sicurezza energetica, quello dell'allargamento della Nato alla Georgia e i conflitti hanno rappresentato i motivi d'interesse principali per l'Unione Europea e per l'Occidente in genere.Tutti i dossier appaiono, al momento molto delicati a causa dell'importanza dei rapporti fra Europa e Russia. Mosca si è fermamente opposta all'integrazione euro-atlantica della Georgia e ai progetti euro-americani di nuovi gasdotti che dall'area del Caspio utilizzerebbe il corridoio transcaucasico e la Turchia per eludere il territorio russo. Cedere alla richieste russe a lasciare Armenia, Azerbaijan e Georgia nell'orbita russa non è un'opzione per l'Europa. Le nazioni piu influenti dell'UE hanno interesse a favorire un alto grado d'integrazione regionale nel Caucaso meridionale e a fare del Caucaso meridionale una zona di trasmissione virtuosa (politica ed economica) fra l'area euro-atlantica, quella nord euroasiatica dominata da Mosca e quella medio-orientale. Per ottenere tale risultato , gli europei dovrebbero favorire la pacificazione completa del conflitto russo-georgiano e di quello azero-armeno per il Nagorno Karabakh, coinvolgere Turchia, Russia e Stati Uniti in negoziati multi-laterali. Senza tale evoluzione si rischiano anni di alta instabilita in un area sempre piu importante per l'Europa e per le relazioni Internazionali. La classe politica Georgiana cerca di far entrare il paese nella NATO e nell'UE dal 1991. E' vero che la pace e la prosperità sono di cruciale importanza per la stabilita della regione, e per i grandi progetti di East-West Corridor e dell' Europa in generale. Perciò i paesi dell' Europa guardano con grande attenzione tutto ciò che succede e succederà in questo Paese, affidabilita dei sistemi e dei regimi. Nell'aprile del 1991 la Georgia proclama l' indipendenza, è stata il secondo Stato dell' URSS a chiudere con il regime comunista. La vittoria elettorale della coalizione nazionalista Gamsakhurdia avvenuta il 27 maggio del 1991 ha introdotto il sistema elettorale diretto. Gamsakhurdia viene eletto primo Presidente della Georgia dopo il crollo dell'URSS. Le conseguenze dell' eredità post sovietica (fallimento nel rilanciare l'economia, inesperienza nella gestione dello Stato) hanno causato un colpo di Stato militare nel 1992, ed il forte nazionalismo ha provocato l'aggravamento della situazione in Abkasia e Osetia del Sud. Nel tentativo di normalizzare la situazione interna del Paese, nel marzo 1992 venne richiamato Eduard Shevardnadze, affinche si assumesse la responsabilita' di ricoprire la carica provvisoria di Presidente del Consiglio di Stato, grazie ad una delega del consiglio Militare, in attesa dello svolgimento delle nuove elezioni. Nel 1992 diventa Presidente del Parlamento. Nell' agosto del 1995 il Parlamento approva una nuova Costituzione, e Shevardnadze viene eletto secondo Presidente della Georgia. Nel 2002 il suo governo entra in crisi politico-economica. l'ex -Ministro della Giustizia dello stesso Shevardnadze , leader dell Oposizione Mikehil Saakashvili (fortemente filo Americano) ha guidato il popolo contro i brogli delle elezioni, contro il Presidente Shevardnadze, costringendolo alle dimissioni. "Rivoluzione di velluto" o "Rivoluzione delle Rose" cosi è stata chiamata la protesta esplosa. Il 4 gennaio del 2004 Saakashvili e' stato eletto terzo presidente della Georgia. Dopo 3 anni, il suo governo entra in crisi e costringe Saakashvili ad anticipare le elezioni presidenziali al 5 gennaio 2008, e quelle parlamentari nella primavera del 2008. Dopo essere stato eletto con un secondo mandato nel 2008, Shaakashvili e' stato fortemente contestato dall'opposizione e da parte della popolazione Georgiana per i brogli elettorali. Il governo Saakashvili e' entrato in grave crisi, soprattutto dopo la guerra russo-georgiana riguardante all'Ossezia del sud dell' agosto 2008. Nella tesi si pongono varie domande: ci si chiede se le continue turbolenze in Georgia siano conseguenza degli scontri di interessi Geopolitici delle Potenze Esterne oppure l'esito degli scarsi rendimenti politici dei Governi della Georgia. Ci si chiede anche se in questo scenario internazionale, la Georgia potrebbe superare le nuove sfide Geopolitiche. Cosa accadde dopo la caduta dell muro di Berlino in un Paese con una popolazione di circa 4 millioni di abitanti, che si estende per 69.700 km2 , e cosi' strategico per Washington e Mosca? Quali sono le paure e le aspirazione della popolazione? Qual e' il mondo visto da Tbilisi? Quali sono le prospettive e gli scenari futuri? ; XXII Ciclo
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The Biden administration's Ukraine policy, though it lacks a coherent strategy, is at least centered on an explicit guiding principle: Russia must not be allowed to win in Ukraine. This sentiment is widely shared by U.S. allies across the Atlantic. "I have a clear strategic objective," said French President Emmanuel Macron in a recent interview. "Russia cannot win in Ukraine." But, even in this consensus position, there is a major fly in the ointment: there has not been enough serious consideration of what a Russian victory in Ukraine would look like. The discussion has, instead, centered on alarmist predictions that obfuscate more than they reveal about Russian intentions and capabilities. "Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?" said Macron, echoing the unfounded narrative that Russia's ultimate goal is to attack NATO states. While it is true that Russia's victory in this war broadly contradicts U.S. interests, a closer look at Moscow's possible endgame scenarios in Ukraine reveals that total victory — even if it were possible — is not in Russia's interests and is probably no longer expected or desired by the Russian leadership.Moscow, according to Western officials, can win this war simply by defeating Ukraine's Armed Forces (AFU) on the battlefield. At first blush, it seems like a reasonable enough interpretation of a belligerent state's wartime objectives, but this simplistic framing of the conflict quickly falls apart upon further examination. What would really happen if the AFU's lines collapsed — a prospect that, though not yet imminent, appears increasingly less distant by the day — and Russian forces found themselves in a position to steamroll Ukraine? Even if Ukrainian forces are conclusively routed on the frontlines, besieging such Ukrainian strongholds as Kharkiv and Zaporizhia — let alone Kyiv and Odessa — will prove immensely taxing. Months of drawn-out fighting over the much less significant cities of Mariupol and Bakhmut offer a small, yet nonetheless harrowing preview of what these sieges would entail. Occupying all of Ukraine would be prohibitively expensive for Russia even in the short term, let alone for a prolonged or indefinite period. The West would likely do its best to dial up these costs by funding and coordinating partisan activities all across Ukraine, but especially in the country's western half. There is, after all, ample historical precedent for such activity in the form of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, which resisted Soviet authorities for up to five years following the end of World War II. Prior to Russia's invasion, commentators urged Western leaders to turn this conflict into "Putin's Afghanistan," with Ukrainian partisans playing the role of 1980s mujahideen fighters. These suggestions were tabled because the Ukrainian government did not, in fact, collapse in the fateful weeks following the invasion, but it remains the case that any Russian attempt to control all of Ukraine would likely precipitate a prolonged insurgency campaign and incur terrible costs as a result. Ukraine's collapse likewise amplifies the risks of a direct clash between Russia and the West. The establishment of a de facto boundary between eastern Poland and Russian-occupied western Ukraine would create a dangerous flashpoint that, in the absence of meaningful deconfliction channels, could erupt in a shooting war on NATO's eastern flank. Nor would such a war necessarily be inadvertent on the part of the West; a total Ukrainian collapse would likely spark calls among the Baltic states and at least several major European powers for direct Western intervention on the ground, whether in the form of a NATO expeditionary force or a coalition of the willing drawn up from individual NATO members. Macron has openly and repeatedly stated that the West should not rule out an intervention along these lines; though his proposal was soundly rejected by the U.S. and Germany, it can be expected that political pressure to "do something" to stop Russia will build in Europe and the United States if Kyiv's defeat becomes imminent. The Kremlin is well aware that it cannot unilaterally achieve its wartime goals no matter how well it does on the battlefield. Indeed, its goals extend well beyond Ukraine, though not quite in the way that Macron and the Biden administration believe. There is no evidence that Moscow has any intention of launching wars of conquest against Poland, the Baltics, or other NATO states, but it is certainly seeking to extract a host of strategic concessions from the U.S. and its allies in areas including prohibitions against eastward NATO expansion and limitations on force deployments along NATO's eastern flank.The war that Russia is waging in Ukraine is thus a proxy for the Kremlin's larger coercive strategy against the West, though it is not at all clear that conquering Ukraine will bring Moscow any closer to getting its desired concessions. The AFU's collapse would certainly induce a state of panic in Western capitals. Yet it is difficult to see how this panic can be translated into a concrete willingness by the Biden administration and other Western leaders to strike the kind of grand security bargain Moscow seeks. In fact, considering how politically invested current Western governments are in Ukraine's war effort, there is a chance that Ukrainian collapse could produce the opposite reaction and render Western leaders even less likely to enter into substantive talks with Moscow.Simply put, Russia has little to gain and much to lose by "winning" in Ukraine, if winning is defined as occupying the entire country. Instead, Russia's incentive is to use its growing advantages as a lever for negotiating with the West. The Kremlin, in light of these conditions, has previously hinted at establishing demilitarized buffer zones in Ukraine that are not under Russian control. Regardless of what happens on the battlefield in coming weeks and months, Moscow has started something it cannot unilaterally finish. This gives the U.S. tremendous inherent leverage in shaping the outlines of war termination — Washington and its allies should use it now to bring an end to this war on the best possible terms for the West as well as Ukraine.
DIE RÜCKFÜHRUNG DES OSTHEERES Die Rückführung des Ostheeres ( - ) Einband ( - ) Titelseite ([II]) Zum Geleit! ([V]) Einleitung ([VII]) Inhaltsverzeichnis. ([IX]) Karten und Skizzen. (XI) I. Die Lage an der Ostfront gegen Ende des Krieges. ([1]) II. Der Zusammenbruch der deutschen Machtstellung im Osten. (12) 1. November [Zusammenbruch auf dem Balkan]. (12) 9. November [Thronverzicht des Kaisers, Abgeordneter Ebert Reichskanzler]. (13) 11. November [Hindenburg]. (14) Die Soldatenräte. (16) 14. November [Waffenstillstandsbedingungen]. (18) 15. November. (19) 18. November. (20) III. Die Sicherung des Rückweges. ([23]) Der Zusammenbruch des Generalgouvernements Warschau. ([23]) Das Generalkommando des III. Reservekorps in Südlitauen. (24) 17. November. (24) 24. November. 5. Februar. 22. Februar. (25) Kämpfe der Etappen-Inspektion Bug. (26) 21. November. (28) Dezember. (30) 17. Dezember. (30) 28. Dezember. 2. Januar. (31) IV. Die Räumung der Ukraine. (31) 14. November. (32) Die Rolle der Soldatenräte. (33) Die Auswirkung auf die Truppe. (35) Aufstellung von Freiwilligen-Abteilungen. (36) 20. November. (36) 24. bis 30. November. (37) 5. Dezember. (37) Beeinflussung von außen. (38) 26. November. (39) Die Räumung bis Anfang Dezember 1918. (41) Der Umschwung der politischen Lage in der Ukraine. (43) 17. bis 19. November. 20. November. (44) Einigungsversuche mit der Nationalbewegung. (44) Verschlimmerung der Lage Anfang Dezember. (46) 5. Dezember. (46) 27. November. (47) Rückwirkungen auf die Transportbewegung. (47) Gegenmaßnahmen der Heeresgruppe Kiew. (50) Der Vertrag von Kasatin und seine Folgen. (51) 11. Dezember. (52) 14 bis 19. Dezember. (52) Die Entwicklung der Lage von Mitte Dezember ab. (53) 13. Dezember. (53) 14. Dezember. (54) 24. Dezember. (55) 27. Dezember. (55) Verschärfung der Bahnlage. 31. Dezember. (56) Zunehmende Bolschewisten-Gefahr. (57) 17. Dezember. (57) 30. Dezember. (57) 1. Januar 1919. (58) Fahrt des I. Armeekorps durch Sowjetrußland. (58) 3. Januar. (59) 17. Januar. (60) Das Ende der Räumungsbewegung. (60) 15. Januar. (61) 12./13. Januar. 26. Januar. (61) Abschluß der Tätigkeit der Heeresgruppe Kiew. (62) V. Die Schicksale der mit Fußmarsch zurückkehrenden Truppenverbände. (64) Die bayerische 4. Kavallerie-Brigade. (64) 11. November. 16. November. (65) 25. November. (65) 28. November. 7. Dezember. (66) 9. Dezember. (67) 13. Dezember. (67) 19. Dezember. (68) 6./7. Januar. (68) 8. Januar. (69) [Karte]: Skizze 1. Gefecht in Zaslaw am 8. Januar 1919. (70) 17. Januar. (71) 26. Januar. (72) 2. Februar. (72) Preußische Kavallerie-Regimenter auf dem Rückmarsch. (74) Die 1. Kavallerie-Brigade. (74) 28. November. (74) 7. Dezember. (75) 14. Dezember. (76) 24. Dezember. (78) 28. Dezember. (79) 31. Dezember. (79) 2. Januar. (80) 16. Januar. (80) 24. Januar. 16. Februar. (81) Die Brigade Graf Yorck. (82) 23. November. (82) 12. Dezember. (82) 27. Dezember. 28. Dezember. (84) 2. Januar. (84) 5. Januar. (85) 6. Januar. (86) 19. Januar. (86) 10. Januar. 10. Februar. (88) 19. Januar. (88) 1. Februar. (89) 10. Februar. (89) Der Zug des Detachements Ebner von Eschenbach. (90) 27. November. (90) 9. Dezember. 10./11. Dezember. (91) 13. Dezember. (92) 20. Dezember. (92) 26. Dezember. (95) 31. Dezember. 5. Januar. (96) 9. Januar. 24./25. Januar. 4. Februar. (97) 5./8. Februar. (97) VI. Die Rückkehr der deutschen Truppen aus dem Schwarzmeer-Gebiet. (98) Der Beginn des Abtransports. (100) 28. November. (100) 13. Dezember. (101) Kämpfe der 15. Landwehr-Division mit den Ukrainern um die Jahreswende 1918/19. 8. Januar. (102) Die 15. Landwehr-Division in Nikolajew. (103) Neue Verhandlungen über den Seetransport. 1. Januar. (104) Die 7. Landwehr-Division in Odessa. (104) 8. Dezember. 11. Dezember. (105) 18. Dezember. (105) Lage in der Südukraine Anfang Februar 1919. (107) [Karte]: Skizze 2. Die Lage der Gruppe Nikolajew im Februar 1919. (108) Überführung nach Saloniki. (108) 27. Februar. (108) 2. März. 9. März. (109) 15. März. (109) 16. März. 23./25. März. (110) Internierung in Saloniki. (110) Heimkehr nach Deutschland. 1./21. Juni. 4./20. Juli. (111) VII. Der Rückmarsch der 10. Armee. (112) Die Mitte des Ostheeres am Ende des Krieges. (112) Zusammensetzung und Zustand der Armee. (113) Die ersten Räumungsbewegungen. 11. November. (115) Der Rückzug westlich Beresina. 14. November. (116) Der innere Zustand der Armee. 17. November. (117) Fortsetzung des Rückmarsches und Abtransport in die Heimat. (118) 18. November. (118) 29. November. (118) 7. Dezember. (119) 20. Dezember. (119) 22. Dezember. (120) Die Räumung von Wilna. (121) 31. Dezember. (121) 4. Januar. (121) 28. Dezember. 29. Dezember. (122) 4. Januar. (122) Der Abschluß der Tätigkeit der 10. Armee. 8. Januar. (124) Der Schlutz der Ostgrenze. (125) 13. Dezember. (126) 14./15. Februar. (126) 15. Januar. (127) 18. Februar. 15. September. (127) VIII. Das Ende der 8. Armee. (129) Die 8. Armee bei Ausbruch der Revolution. 6. November. (129) Das Verhältnis zu der Bevölkerung. (130) Die Transportverhältnisse. (130) Die Stäbe. (131) Erste Maßnahmen des Armee-Oberkommandos. (131) 14. November. 17. November. (132) 19. November. (132) Der Umsturz im Baltikum. (133) 9. November. 12. November. (133) 14. November. (133) 15. November. (134) Der Beginn des Abtransports. (135) Die Entstehung der Landeswehren. (135) 11. November. (135) 12. November. (136) Die ersten Rückzugsbewegungen. (136) Verschärfung der Lage. (137) 16. November. 18. November. 29. November. (137) 21. November. (138) Die Bildung reichsdeutscher Freiwilligen-Verbände. 22. November. (138) Das Ende der 5. Ersatz-Division bei Pleskau. (139) 25. November. (139) [Karte]: Skizze 3. Der Kampf um Pleskau am 25. November 1918. (140) 27. November. 29. November. (140) Die Kämpfe der 205. Infanterie-Division bei Narwa. 28. November. (141) Die Lage Anfang Dezember. 7. Dezember. (142) Die Entwicklung im Dezember. (143) 5. Dezember. 8. Dezember. 13. Dezember. (144) 15. Dezember. 21. Dezember. (145) Der Abzug der Dorpater Truppen nach Riga. (145) 22. Dezember. (145) 18. Dezember. 20. Dezember. (146) 21. Dezember. (146) 27. Dezember. (147) Die Lage der Deutschbalten. 14. Dezember. 17. Dezember. (147) Die Tätigkeit des neuen Oberkommandos. 22. Dezember. 27. Dezember. (149) Der Kampf um Riga. (150) 27. Dezember. 29. Dezember. (151) 31. Dezember. (151) 2. Januar 1919. (152) 3. Januar. (152) Die Vorgänge in Kurland. (153) 5. Januar. 8. Januar. (153) 16. Januar. (153) 12. Januar. (154) Die Lage im Baltikum Mitte Januar 1919. (154) IX. Die Tätigkeit der Eisenbahn. (156) Allgemeines. (156) Die Eisenbahnen im ehemaligen Gebiet des Oberbefehlshabers Ost. (161) 5. Dezember. (162) 24. Dezember. (162) Die Eisenbahnen in der Ukraine. (163) 18. Dezember. 25. Dezember. (165) 31. Januar. (165) 7./8. Dezember. (167) 25. Dezember. (167) 29. Dezember. (168) X. Rückblick. (169) Abkürzungen. ([179]) Kriegsgliederung des Ostheeres nach dem Stande von Anfang November 1918. ([181]) 8. Armee. ([181]) 10. Armee. (184) Heeresgruppe Kiew. (186) Militär-Gouvernement Litauen. (190) Etappen-Inspektion Bug. (191) Generalgouvernement Warschau. (192) Deutsche Truppen im Kaukasus. Schutztruppe Bug. (194) [Karte]: Karte 1. Die Lage in Westrußland bei Ausbruch der Revolution (und die Wege der zurückmarschierenden Truppen). ( - ) [Karte]: Karte 2. Die Lage im Baltikum Anfang November 1918. ( - ) [Karte]: Karte 3. Verteilung der Deutschen Truppen in der Ukraine Anfang November 1918. ( - ) [Karte]: Karte 4. Gefecht bei Narwa am 28. November 1918. ( - ) Werbung ( - ) Einband ( - )
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In the New Yorker this week, journalist Keith Gessen wrote a piece disentangling what he called "the painful and knotty arguments" over whether and when Washington should pursue negotiations in Ukraine.
He uses the example of Samuel Charap, a researcher at the RAND corporation — who has made the case for the United States to seek an endgame to the war — to explore the calls from a small group of experts in Washington, who, in Gessen's formulation "argue that there might be a way to end the war sooner rather than later by freezing the conflict in place, and working to secure and rebuild the large part of Ukraine that is not under Russian occupation"
The piece answers what the author sees as the four key questions about when and whether diplomacy can be successful, analyzing the debates over nature of negotiations, the military outlook for the foreseeable future, Vladimir Putin's ultimate intentions, and, as Gessen put it on Twitter, if there is "any acceptable solution, even a temporary one, that leaves parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces?"
On the first question, Charap offered his thoughts on what diplomacy looks like, and what it hopes to achieve. "Diplomacy is not the opposite of coercion," he told the New Yorker. "It's a tool for achieving the same objectives as you would using coercive means. Many negotiations to end wars have taken place at the same time as the war's most fierce fighting."
Charles Kupchan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has also argued that Washington needs a plan to get to the negotiating table, is quoted in Gessen's piece describing what the initial stages of such diplomacy at the conclusion of the current counteroffensive could look like.
"I wouldn't say, 'You [referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] do this or we're going to turn off the spigot.' But you sit down and you have a searching conversation about where the war is going and what's in the best interest of Ukraine, and you see what comes out of that discussion."
On Thursday, the New York Times released a podcast titled "Is it Time to Negotiate with Putin?," which seeks to answer similar questions, and comes to the conclusion that the war will not end with a decisive victory for either side.
"We've sort of moved well out of the kind of the fairy tale stage of this conflict," said New York Times opinion columnist Lydia Polgreen, who added that it was time for a new frame for discussions. She also noted that there were other countries with an interest in this war, and their views may contrast with those in Washington and Kyiv. "You have a lot of different power centers, or emerging or aspiring power centers in the world seeing this conflict through lots of different lenses, you know, and jockeying for their own interests," she said. "And this kind of no negotiation at all position that the Ukrainians have is, I think, increasingly running up against this multiplicity of interests that are pressing on lots of different pressure points around the globe."
Part of what seems to be animating these assessments is the realization that Kyiv's counteroffensive will not end in an overwhelming win, and that, as a result, the alternative is a protracted war in Ukraine.
In mid-August, Politico's NatSec daily newsletter reported that a growing number of U.S. officials are wondering whether Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was right when he called for the beginning of negotiations with Russia last November, when Ukraine had clear momentum on the battlefield.
"Most people now recognize that Plan A isn't working. But that doesn't mean they're prepared to discuss Plan B," Charap says in the New Yorker story. For him, what that Plan B should be is clear: "It would be a diplomatic strategy."
In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:
—For the second time since Russia left the Black Sea grain deal in July, a ship safely left Ukraine through a temporary humanitarian corridor. The ship, which departed from the port of Odessa last weekend, was carrying steel bound for Africa. Meanwhile, the Turkish and Russian foreign ministers met on Thursday to discuss possibilities for reviving the deal, but the talks ended without any meaningful progress according to the New York Times.
The meeting was reportedly a preparatory meeting for a future summit between the two countries' leaders, though a date has not yet been set. The Times says that the discussion was centered around "a plan that [Moscow] casts as an alternative to the deal, one that appears aimed at helping its own exports. (...) In its proposal, Russia says it envisions sending one million tons of grain to Turkey — at a price subsidized by Qatar — that would then be transported to countries that need it."
—The Wall Street Journal reports that "The Biden administration and its European allies are laying plans for long-term military assistance to Ukraine to ensure Russia won't be able to win on the battlefield and persuade the Kremlin that Western support for Kyiv won't waver." According to the report, Western officials are seeking ways to make pledges for Ukraine's defense more permanent in case Donald Trump or another candidate who is skeptical of sending more aid is elected president of the United States in 2024.
—The Quincy Institute's Anatol Lieven wrote in the Guardian this week about Russian public opinion over the war in Ukraine and the prospect of future negotiations. "From conversations I've had, it appears that a large majority of elite and ordinary Russians would accept a ceasefire along the present battle lines and would not mount any challenge if Putin proposed or agreed to such a ceasefire and presented it as a sufficient Russian victory," Lieven writes. "The general elite aversion to pursuing total victory in Ukraine is however not the same thing as a willingness to accept Russian defeat – which is all that the Ukrainian and US governments are presently offering. Nobody with whom I have spoken within the Moscow elite, and very few indeed in the wider population, has said that Russia should surrender Crimea and the eastern Donbas."
U.S. State Department news:
The State Department did not hold its regular press briefing this week.
Problem setting. In general, the current level of integration and globalization processes requires a significant optimization of the existing transport system and its maximum adaptation to the requirements of European standards for the provision of transport services for the movement of passengers within urban agglomerations. The elimination of vertical state planning, financing and control in the field of public transport has caused a kind of chaos in the transport sector, because a new model of management and development has not been formed. That is why it was necessary to implement an effective concept for the development of public transport, especially in large cities.Recent research and publications analysis. Structural changes in the life of the country's population, caused primarily by the strengthening of the role of cities in their lives, along with a decrease in the rural population, led to a modification of the needs of consumers of transport services, which in turn necessitated the restructuring of the route systems of most Ukrainian cities, which until this time was mostly spontaneous. At the same time, this process is extremely complex, as it affects the interests of a significant number of citizens and is of great social and economic importance. Therefore, there is a need for scientific justification and research of the process of formation of transport systems, as well as the selection of criteria for effective and uninterrupted functioning of public transport. The works of Russian and foreign scientists, in particular, are devoted to these and other issues in the field of public transport: V. Dymchenko, Yu. Kossogo, A. Radzyuka, V. Shtanova, L. Bulavinoy, L. Ryabko, A. Stelmakha, S. Dubovoy, V. Fedorova, J. Berry, J. Forrester, A. Sullivan, K. Godfrin, B. Greenshields and others.Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. Existing developments in the outlined area of research cover a wide range of issues, but the new economic conditions and the constantly growing number of existing problems in the transport sector require a thorough study of ways to solve them. In particular, in such circumstances, there is an urgent need to find fundamentally new ways to solve the contradictions and shortcomings of the existing public transport system. To solve the current situation, there is a need for a detailed study of the process of developing the concept of public transport development, its constituent elements, as well as the study of practical achievements of its implementation on the example of large cities.Paper main body. Conditionally, the process of developing the concept of public transport can be divided into several stages. The first stage determines the role and place of local governments in the organization and implementation of the process of managing the region, in particular through the development and implementation of concepts of development of public transport. The second stage forms the main obstacles to the implementation of the concept at the local level (from the state to the level of a separate territory). At the third stage, the features of participation in the process of forming and implementing the concept of legal entities and individuals involved in the field of public transport are determined.The structure of the concept of development of public transport includes: general provisions, analysis of the state of passenger transportation of the city, stages of implementation of the concept and expected results.Every year the number of individual transport is growing. This has a significant impact on the congestion of roads and the lack of parking spaces, not to mention the harmful effects of car emissions on the environment. In order to influence the situation that has developed, the city councils of some cities decided to develop a concept for the development of public transport. Such cities are: Lviv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Mariupol.Regarding the evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementation of the concept of public transport development, it is not possible to do this in the cities described above, because this is an action plan for the next couple of years, and the result of its implementation will not be fully evaluated soon.However, the results of the implementation of the concept of public transport development can be estimated on the example of Kyiv in 2015, based on the report on the state of sustainable development of urban transport. According to this document, optimization of some routes of the city of Kyiv was carried out in order to better respond to the demand from consumers of transport services. When developing optimization scenarios that were tested (and repeatedly improved) using the Kyiv transport system model, the project team also sought to revise the local hierarchy of land-based public transport facilities. These are only the first steps towards eliminating Kyiv's traffic collapse and establishing an efficient public transport system. After all, despite the large number of concepts and projects for the development of urban transport, there are still many unsolved problems that have been eliminated for more than a year.Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. Given the above, it can be concluded that the development and formation of the concept is a complex multi-component process that begins with the development of a specific reform plan, then goes to the stage of research and approval at the level of local governments, flows into the stage of practical implementation and analysis of the results obtained. The practice of spreading the concepts of public transport development in Ukrainian cities has become more widespread in recent years. The constantly growing number of urban population and the increase in private cars on the roads of cities set local authorities the task of solving the problems caused by these processes. A positive factor for the development and further implementation of Public Transport Development Concepts in Ukrainian cities is the positive experience of Kyiv, which confirms the possibility of eliminating some problems with the help of this action plan. However, life does not stand still, and new, deeper problems arise that need to be addressed in the future. ; Проведено визначення вихідних умов функціонування громадського транспорту в сучасних умовах. Проаналізовано зарубіжний досвід діяльності громадського транспорту, рівня його прибутковості. Визначено сутність Концепції розвитку громадського транспорту, а також її типові структурні елементи. Досліджено етапи розробки та прийняття цієї концепції. Розкрито особливості реалізації згаданої вище концепції у містах України, а також проаналізовано результати її впровадження на прикладі міста Києва.
Problem setting. In general, the current level of integration and globalization processes requires a significant optimization of the existing transport system and its maximum adaptation to the requirements of European standards for the provision of transport services for the movement of passengers within urban agglomerations. The elimination of vertical state planning, financing and control in the field of public transport has caused a kind of chaos in the transport sector, because a new model of management and development has not been formed. That is why it was necessary to implement an effective concept for the development of public transport, especially in large cities.Recent research and publications analysis. Structural changes in the life of the country's population, caused primarily by the strengthening of the role of cities in their lives, along with a decrease in the rural population, led to a modification of the needs of consumers of transport services, which in turn necessitated the restructuring of the route systems of most Ukrainian cities, which until this time was mostly spontaneous. At the same time, this process is extremely complex, as it affects the interests of a significant number of citizens and is of great social and economic importance. Therefore, there is a need for scientific justification and research of the process of formation of transport systems, as well as the selection of criteria for effective and uninterrupted functioning of public transport. The works of Russian and foreign scientists, in particular, are devoted to these and other issues in the field of public transport: V. Dymchenko, Yu. Kossogo, A. Radzyuka, V. Shtanova, L. Bulavinoy, L. Ryabko, A. Stelmakha, S. Dubovoy, V. Fedorova, J. Berry, J. Forrester, A. Sullivan, K. Godfrin, B. Greenshields and others.Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. Existing developments in the outlined area of research cover a wide range of issues, but the new economic conditions and the constantly growing number of existing problems in the transport sector require a thorough study of ways to solve them. In particular, in such circumstances, there is an urgent need to find fundamentally new ways to solve the contradictions and shortcomings of the existing public transport system. To solve the current situation, there is a need for a detailed study of the process of developing the concept of public transport development, its constituent elements, as well as the study of practical achievements of its implementation on the example of large cities.Paper main body. Conditionally, the process of developing the concept of public transport can be divided into several stages. The first stage determines the role and place of local governments in the organization and implementation of the process of managing the region, in particular through the development and implementation of concepts of development of public transport. The second stage forms the main obstacles to the implementation of the concept at the local level (from the state to the level of a separate territory). At the third stage, the features of participation in the process of forming and implementing the concept of legal entities and individuals involved in the field of public transport are determined.The structure of the concept of development of public transport includes: general provisions, analysis of the state of passenger transportation of the city, stages of implementation of the concept and expected results.Every year the number of individual transport is growing. This has a significant impact on the congestion of roads and the lack of parking spaces, not to mention the harmful effects of car emissions on the environment. In order to influence the situation that has developed, the city councils of some cities decided to develop a concept for the development of public transport. Such cities are: Lviv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Mariupol.Regarding the evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementation of the concept of public transport development, it is not possible to do this in the cities described above, because this is an action plan for the next couple of years, and the result of its implementation will not be fully evaluated soon.However, the results of the implementation of the concept of public transport development can be estimated on the example of Kyiv in 2015, based on the report on the state of sustainable development of urban transport. According to this document, optimization of some routes of the city of Kyiv was carried out in order to better respond to the demand from consumers of transport services. When developing optimization scenarios that were tested (and repeatedly improved) using the Kyiv transport system model, the project team also sought to revise the local hierarchy of land-based public transport facilities. These are only the first steps towards eliminating Kyiv's traffic collapse and establishing an efficient public transport system. After all, despite the large number of concepts and projects for the development of urban transport, there are still many unsolved problems that have been eliminated for more than a year.Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. Given the above, it can be concluded that the development and formation of the concept is a complex multi-component process that begins with the development of a specific reform plan, then goes to the stage of research and approval at the level of local governments, flows into the stage of practical implementation and analysis of the results obtained. The practice of spreading the concepts of public transport development in Ukrainian cities has become more widespread in recent years. The constantly growing number of urban population and the increase in private cars on the roads of cities set local authorities the task of solving the problems caused by these processes. A positive factor for the development and further implementation of Public Transport Development Concepts in Ukrainian cities is the positive experience of Kyiv, which confirms the possibility of eliminating some problems with the help of this action plan. However, life does not stand still, and new, deeper problems arise that need to be addressed in the future. ; Проведено визначення вихідних умов функціонування громадського транспорту в сучасних умовах. Проаналізовано зарубіжний досвід діяльності громадського транспорту, рівня його прибутковості. Визначено сутність Концепції розвитку громадського транспорту, а також її типові структурні елементи. Досліджено етапи розробки та прийняття цієї концепції. Розкрито особливості реалізації згаданої вище концепції у містах України, а також проаналізовано результати її впровадження на прикладі міста Києва.
