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Les économies des pays du golfe Arabo-Persique sont très dépendantes du pétrole qu'elles exportent surtout vers l'Asie. Cette source d'énergie – considérée comme partiellement responsable du réchauffement climatique – est amenée à être de moins en moins demandée. Les États de la région anticipent les conséquences de cette baisse de la demande en cherchant à diversifier leur économie. Ils investissent dans les énergies moins polluantes comme le gaz et les centrales solaires.

Emmanuel Macron s'est prononcé en faveur d'une redéfinition des relations avec Moscou. Ses déclarations ont provoqué des remous en Allemagne. La chancelière et son ministre des Affaires étrangères sont partisans d'une ligne dure face à Vladimir Poutine, même si les coopérations germano-russes sont nombreuses. Une partie de l'élite politique et économique allemande conteste la politique russe d'Angela Merkel et souhaiterait que l'Allemagne se montre plus conciliante à l'égard de la Russie.

Après le renversement du régime de Ben Ali en 2011, la Tunisie a mis en place un système politique visant à éviter une trop forte concentration du pouvoir. Toutefois, ce nouveau système n'est pas satisfaisant : il a abouti à une telle dispersion du pouvoir que l'action publique en devient inefficace et minée par le clientélisme. De profondes réformes doivent être conduites pour rendre les gouvernements plus efficaces et légitimes. Sinon, la tentation autoritaire pourrait faire son retour.

This article discusses the integration of a diagnostic lens in qualitative or mixed methods evaluations, arguing that this will improve quality: in particular, it will improve transparency, credibility and reliability of evaluation findings.We start by unpacking the notion of evaluation quality and pointing out the typical weaknesses of qualitative methods. We then introduce the basic notions of diagnostic approaches and how they relate to theory-based evaluation, process tracing, and Bayesian updating, arguing for the merits of taking a formal Bayesian approach, founded on the confusion matrix, which amongst else reduces confirmation bias and conservatism. This article draws parallels between the process tracing tests and elements of the confusion matrix.

AbstractIntroductionAchieving HIV epidemic control globally will require new strategies to accelerate reductions in HIV incidence and mortality. Universal test and treat (UTT) was evaluated in four randomized population‐based trials (BCPP/Ya Tsie, HPTN 071/PopART, SEARCH, ANRS 12249/TasP) conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) during expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility by World Health Organization guidelines and the UNAIDS 90‐90‐90 campaign.DiscussionThese three‐year studies were conducted in Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Kenya and South Africa in settings with baseline HIV prevalence from 4% to 30%. Key observations across studies were: (1) Universal testing (implemented via a variety of home and community‐based testing approaches) achieved >90% coverage in all studies. (2) When coupled with robust linkage to HIV care, rapid ART start and patient‐centred care, UTT achieved among the highest reported population levels of viral suppression in SSA. Significant gains in population‐level viral suppression were made in regions with both low and high baseline population viral load; however, viral suppression gains were not uniform across all sub‐populations and were lower among youth. (3) UTT resulted in marked reductions in community HIV incidence when universal testing and robust linkage were present. However, HIV elimination targets were not reached. In BCPP and HPTN 071, annualized HIV incidence was approximately 20% to 30% lower in the intervention (which included universal testing) compared to control arms (no universal testing). In SEARCH (where both arms had universal testing), incidence declined 32% over three years. (4) UTT reduced HIV associated mortality by 23% in the intervention versus control communities in SEARCH, a study in which mortality was comprehensively measured.ConclusionsThese trials provide strong evidence that UTT inclusive of universal testing increases population‐level viral suppression and decreases HIV incidence and mortality faster than the status quo in SSA and should be adapted at a sub‐country level as a public health strategy. However, more is needed, including integration of new prevention interventions into UTT, in order to reach UNAIDS HIV elimination targets.