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We estimate inequality including Gini coefficients using a lognormal parametric model for an investigation of persistent inequality. The asymptotic theory of selected order statistics enables us to construct a linear model based on grouped data. We extend the linear model to a dynamic model in terms of a stochastic volatility (SV) model. Using Japanese data we estimate the SV model by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and exploit a model comparison to choose a best model, concluding that the model with SV is better fitted to the data than the model without SV. It indicates the persistent inequality.

We assess redistribution in the main Uruguayan pension and unemployment insurance programs on a lifetime basis. Using administrative records from Social Security, we simulate lifetime declared labor income and flows of contributions and benefits to affiliates to the programs. Expected present values of income and net flows are also computed. Equipped with these estimations, we construct standard measures of distribution and redistribution of lifetime labor income through the Social Security system. Our findings suggest that these programs reduce income inequality. In particular, Social Security reduces the Gini coefficient of expected lifetime formal labor income by almost 2 percentage points.

This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level. These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.

This article describes private-sector evaluation in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) from the beginning of the institution in 1991 until the end of 2010. It shows the way of undertaking ex-post project evaluation that was adopted by the EBRD's Board during that period, against the background of a region that experienced severe ups and downs as a result of different financial crises. It describes how the EBRD's theory-based evaluation system, anchored in a comprehensive evaluation policy, evolved over time, being reviewed and amended approximately every five years. At the heart of this evolving system was a progressively more independent evaluation function that followed the good practice standards of the Evaluation Cooperation Group (ECG), the working group for cooperation among multilateral development bank (MDB) evaluators. The article pictures the dual objective of evaluation through concentrating on generating lessons and being a Board accountability tool. It poses the question, 'who evaluates the evaluators?' and shows the importance of applying an established ECG peer-review system of evaluation functions in MDBs.

This article presents a viable method to overcome the challenge of producing reliable cause–effect findings in impact evaluation. The Measuring Cluster Effects through Triangulation method (MCET) involves methodological triangulation. Three designs − shadow controls, generic controls, and process tracing − are combined to shed light on causality. When these three approaches are triangulated, cause–effect findings will be more reliable. The MCET combination is a feasible alternative when randomized controlled trials and matched controls are impossible or impracticable. It is also an alternative to using a single non-experimental design, particularly in situations where expenditure is great and the causality issue is pressing. In this article, the MCET approach is illustrated by information drawn from a set of evaluations performed on the activities of the Compare Foundation, a cluster organization in Sweden in the Information and Communication Technology sector. Regionally based in Karlstad, County Värmland, and founded in 2000, the Compare cluster organization has adapted the MCET to its own activities.

This article provides a practical example of how to apply a theory-driven approach to research intervention and protocol design. It illustrates how reflection on both intervention theory and programme theory can inform and refine the: implementation of the intervention; research design; specification of research questions and tools; and, identify the contribution each research stage makes in the accumulation of policy-relevant learning. The article presents the logic models, associated theory and learning from the development of a pilot randomized control trial/feasibility study of a walking intervention targeting older adults.

The article reviews the state of M&E in South Asia, and makes a case for building capacity in the field, without which the discipline will remain underdeveloped, and accountability for government spending not improve. We suggest that almost none of the South Asian countries have yet managed to develop an M&E 'system', though all have mechanisms in place. The article discusses the MIS and evaluation systems, tools in use by governments in South Asia, budgets for evaluation, and the role of civil society organizations. It highlights two cases in South Asia (India and Sri Lanka) where the concept of Performance Management has gathered momentum, even though outcome budgeting has barely taken off in any country of the sub-region. It examines plans for improving implementation of evaluation, but finds many areas suffering from capacity weaknesses. The article closes by recommending ways to address the capacity weaknesses.

This article proposes a complexity-informed framework for evaluating transportation infrastructure projects. The article does this through four steps. First, the properties of infrastructure development projects are discussed. This leads to the conclusion that the specific locality or contextualization of a given project is important for explaining the outcome. Hence, there is a need for an ontology and epistemology that addresses the importance of this contextualization. The second step concerns the development of the prerequisites for a methodological framework that follows from this epistemology and ontology. The third step is the assessment of common infrastructure evaluation methods against these prerequisites. This leads to the conclusion that a comparative case-based approach is the most suitable way to study the relationship between context and outcomes in projects. A framework based on Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) is presented in the fourth step. The article concludes with a discussion of the further development of QCA.

This article identifies pathways through which impacts from the 2014 Commonwealth Games might arise. It also assesses the likelihood of positive impacts and considers how best to evaluate the games. The pathways identified are: economic growth; increased sports participation; increased pride and sense of identity; volunteering; improved environment; and legacy programmes. There is little or no evidence from previous major multi-sports events to suggest that any of these pathways are likely to generate meaningful positive outcomes although there is an absence of evidence for some. The available evidence could be improved if the 2014 Games were to be evaluated using: retrospective cohort analysis for discrete interventions; theory-based comparative cohort analyses, which includes an assessment of opportunity costs for effects that are intrinsic to hosting the event; and a realist evaluation of 'catalytic impacts'.

IntroductionThe increasing proportion of women living with HIV has evoked calls for tailored services that respond to women's specific needs. The objective of this investigation was to explore the concept of women‐specific HIV/AIDS services to identify and define what key elements underlie this approach to care.MethodsA comprehensive review was conducted using online databases (CSA Social Service Abstracts, OvidSP, Proquest, Psycinfo, PubMed, CINAHL), augmented with a search for grey literature. In total, 84 articles were retrieved and 30 were included for a full review. Of these 30, 15 were specific to HIV/AIDS, 11 for mental health and addictions and four stemmed from other disciplines.Results and discussionThe review demonstrated the absence of a consensual definition of women‐specific HIV/AIDS services in the literature. We distilled this concept into its defining features and 12 additional dimensions (1) creating an atmosphere of safety, respect and acceptance; (2) facilitating communication and interaction among peers; (3) involving women in the planning, delivery and evaluation of services; (4) providing self‐determination opportunities; (5) providing tailored programming for women; (6) facilitating meaningful access to care through the provision of social and supportive services; (7) facilitating access to women‐specific and culturally sensitive information; (8) considering family as the unit of intervention; (9) providing multidisciplinary integration and coordination of a comprehensive array of services; (10) meeting women "where they are"; (11) providing gender‐, culture‐ and HIV‐sensitive training to health and social care providers; and (12) conducting gendered HIV/AIDS research.ConclusionsThis review highlights that the concept of women‐specific HIV/AIDS services is a complex and multidimensional one that has been shaped by diverse theoretical perspectives. Further research is needed to better understand this emerging concept and ultimately assess the effectiveness of women‐specific services on HIV‐positive women's health outcomes.

IntroductionIntegrating HIV with primary health services has the potential to reduce HIV‐related stigma through delivering care in settings disassociated with HIV. This study investigated the relationship between integrated care and felt stigma. The study design was a comparative case study of four models of HIV care in Swaziland, ranging from fully integrated to fully stand‐alone HIV care.MethodsAn exit survey (N=602) measured differences in felt stigma across model of care; the primary outcome "perception of HIV status exposure through clinic attendance" was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. In‐depth interviews (N=22) explored whether and how measured differences in stigma experiences were related to service integration.ResultsThere were significant differences in perceived status exposure across models of care. After adjustment for potential confounding between sites, those at a partially integrated site and a partially stand‐alone site had greater odds of perceived status exposure than those at the fully stand‐alone site (aOR 3.33, 95% CI 1.98–5.60; and aOR 11.84, 95% CI 6.89–20.36, respectively). There was no difference between the fully stand‐alone and the fully integrated clinic. Qualitative data suggested that many clients at HIV‐only sites felt greater confidentiality knowing that those around them were positive, and support was gained from other HIV care clients. Confidentiality was maintained in various ways, even in stand‐alone sites, through separate waiting areas for HIV testing and HIV treatment, and careful clinic and room labelling.ConclusionsThe relationship between model of care and stigma was complex, and the hypothesis that stigma is higher at stand‐alone sites did not hold true in this high prevalence setting. Policy‐makers should ensure that service integration does not increase stigma, in particular within partially integrated models of care.