Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis paper explores the possibility that financial depth may have an asymmetric impact on macroeconomic volatility by affecting its "good" and "bad" components in different ways. While "good" volatility refers to positive shocks to gross domestic product, consumption and investment growth, "bad" volatility denotes negative fluctuations in these macroeconomic indicators. Dynamic panel regressions in a sample of 97 countries over the period 1960–2010 provide evidence of asymmetry on three main grounds. First, financial depth reduces good volatility but does not have much impact on bad volatility except that it reduces some bad volatility of consumption. Second, though financial depth reduces both good and bad volatility of consumption, the reduction in the good component is much greater. Third, the impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility varies across sectors. Particularly in low‐income economies, financial depth enables better consumption decisions but poorer investment choices. These results have important policy implications.

Domestic policies in Nigeria have been linked to high, volatile, and rising food prices in the country. In light of these linkages, this paper empirically examines the transmission of key monetary policy variables to domestic food prices and the resulting welfare impacts. Estimates of policy-induced price changes from estimated cointegrating relations between commodity prices and policy variables as well as demand elasticities from estimated quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) of households' consumption expenditures, were employed to estimate the welfare impact (compensating variation) of the policy-induced price changes. The study found that government management of exchange rates and money supplies as well as withdrawal of subsidies on petroleum products have been the main driver of rising food prices in the country. While the average farm household benefited from these price increases, with the mean (median) compensating variation estimated -7.8% (-0.2%) of the household budget, a sizeable proportion (44.1 – 55.5%) of the households suffered welfare losses from various policy induced price changes. These include, notably households of smallholders (14.3 – 84.2%) and female-headed households (34.1 – 62.8%). Overall, while domestic policy actions relating to money supply and subsidy removal were Kaldor–Hicks efficient, exchange rate devaluation was not. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; AGRODEP ; MTID

PurposeTo investigate whether monetary volatility in the US exerts any asymmetric impact on output volatility over the period 1974‐2002.Design/methodology/approachFor the empirical purposes, the analysis makes use of the multi‐variable GARCH (MVGARCH), which allows not only the presence of volatility clustering but also the presence of asymmetries in that volatility clustering.FindingsThe empirical findings suggest that money supply volatility exerts a significant asymmetric influence on output volatility, i.e. the variance of output changes more due to positive changes than negative changes of money supply volatility.Originality/valueThe paper investigates, for the first time, the presence of any asymmetric impact of the volatility of money on the volatility of output in the case of the US.

International audience ; The recent food price increases in international markets threaten food security and have led many researchers, policy makers and NGOs to analyse them in order to address them. Most analysts talk about price spikes, which they characterise in terms of price volatility. This characterisation leads them to advocate measures - market liberalisation, private risk management instruments, and safety nets - that have been showing their limitations for almost 30 years. Clearly there is a certain level of volatility inherent in agricultural product prices, which has been compounded by trade policies and speculation. But since 2005, a steady upward trend in food prices has been observed, sometimes resulting in spikes. Several factors can explain these spikes: the lack of coordinated storage; insufficient and inappropriate agricultural investment; the depletion of resources; and growing demand from biofuels and emerging countries. Placing these spikes within the context of an upward trend opens new avenues for national and global action that depart from the predominant vision today: basing the rules of international trade on food security; coordinating storage policies at the global level; investing in ecological agriculture; and limiting growth in demand for agricultural products. ; Menaçant la sécurité alimentaire, les récentes hausses des prix alimentaires sur les marchés internationaux ont amené nombre de chercheurs, de politiques, d'ONG à les analyser afin d'y faire face. La plupart des analystes parlent de flambées, qu'ils caractérisent en termes de volatilité des prix. Cette caractérisation les conduit à promouvoir des mesures - libéralisation des marchés, instruments privés de gestion du risque, filets de sécurité -, qui montrent leurs limites depuis presque trente ans. Certes il existe une volatilité des prix inhérente aux produits agricoles, qui a été aggravée par les politiques commerciales et la spéculation. Mais, depuis 2005, se dessine une tendance persistante à la hausse des prix ...