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The Kydland–Prescott, Barro–Gordon inflation bias result hinges on policymakers aiming at employment above potential. This has been questioned by academics and policymakers on the ground of realism. We show that even if policymakers target the normal level of employment, a bias arises if they are uncertain about economic conditions and are more sensitive to employment below than above normal. This view implies a positive association between inflation and the variance of output shocks. Cross‐sectional empirical evidence from OECD economies supports this implication. We also discuss the consequences for the transparency of monetary policy and for central bank reform.

Australia, like all developed and most developing countries, is facing major contextual changes, one of which is an ageing population, largely through declining fertility and increasing longevity (WHO 2002). This will impact on most aspects of global, national, local, community, family and individual interactions and decision-making, including for the nonprofit sector. The sector should be aware that population ageing is increasingly being addressed in public finance and policy agendas within Australia (see, for example, Intergenerational Report 2002-3), as well as by governments in countries such as the United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and European Economic Policy Committee (EEPC).