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The deadly weekend attacks by Hamas against mainly young people at a musical festival in Israel reveals a new and challenging shift in how terrorist organisations are approaching their political goals. Hybrid forms of warfare are not new, but their characteristics are likely to trouble state responses.

Hibridno ratovanje ne predstavlja nov i revolucionaran pristup u ostvarivanju političkih ciljeva. Navedeno je temeljna pretpostavka ove doktorske disertacije koja je potvrĎena kroz znanstveno istraţivanje i komparativnu analizu tri studije slučaja. Pokušaj stvaranja Velike Srbije, zbog činjenice da se relativno nedavno odvijao na teritoriju Republike Hrvatske, najrelevantniji je slučaj kada govorimo o aktualnim vanjskopolitičkim i obrambenim izazovima Republike Hrvatske. Izraelsko-libanonski rat iz 2006. godine smatra se oglednim primjerkom hibridnog rata izmeĎu drţavnog i nedrţavnog aktera. Rat Rusije i Ukrajine i aneksija Krima najrecentniji je primjer hibridnog rata izmeĎu dva drţavna aktera, i katalizator koji je aktualizirao pojam hibridnog rata, pokrenuo meĎunarodnu zajednicu i NATO savez da preispitaju svoj pristup suvremenom ratovanju. Ova disertacija temelji na se razmatranju ratova s vojnopolitičkog stajališta, a kombiniranjem tri teorijska okvira odabrano je 16 čimbenika koji karakteriziraju hibridnog aktera. Teorijskom analizom sve tri studije slučaja potvrĎeno je da hibridnom ratu prethodi period političkih, ideoloških ili sličnih neslaganja izmeĎu suprotstavljenih strana, tijekom kojeg hibridni akter nastoji širiti vlastiti narativ i otvoreno ili prikriveno provodi aktivnosti koje će mu dati prednost u ratu. Provedbom istraţivanja u tri rata testirana je prisutnost svakog pojedinog čimbenika hibridnog modela, a komparacijom rezultata utvrĎeno je da su odreĎeni čimbenici bili, u većoj ili manjoj mjeri, prisutni u sva tri rata. Unatoč činjenici da slučajevi pripadaju različitom geopolitičkom kontekstu, da su se odvijali u različitom vremenskom razdoblju i na različitoj zemljopisnoj lokaciji, prisutnost čimbenika u sva tri rata potvrĎuju pretpostavku da hibridni rat nije ništa novo. ; Hybrid warfare does not represent a new and revolutionary approach to the realization of political goals. This is the central hypothesis of this doctoral dissertation which has been tested by scientific research and comparative analysis of three post Cold War, geographically and chronically dispersed case studies. The first case study encompasses the initial attempt to create a Greater Serbia at the territorial expense of the Republic of Croatia which occurred in the early 1990's within the context of Yugoslavia's dissolution. The second case study details the Israeli - Hezbollah war of 2006 which is considered by many to be a textbook example of a state versus non-state actor conflict. Finally, the third case study analyzes the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine (including the Russian annexation of Crimea) which has popularized the term "hybrid warfare" and acted as a catalyst in initiating NATO re-examination of its approach to contemporary security threats. This dissertation analyzes the manifestation of hybrid war from a military and political perspective, and to characterize hybrid actors, it makes use of sixteen individual factors derived from three established theoretical frameworks. Theoretical analysis of the three case studies suggests that in all three cases open warfare was preceded by a period of political, ideological or other conflict between the opposing parties. In all instances, the hybrid actor made use of this period to promulgate its narrative, while at the same time covertly or overtly undertaking activities designed to ensure an advantage upon the onset of violence. The presence of each individual factor of the combined theoretical framework was determined through research, and a comparison of the results proves that certain characteristics are present, in varying degree, in all three conflicts. Despite occurring in different geopolitical circumstances, in different chronological periods, and in different geographical locations, the presence of hybrid factors in all three conflicts confirms the initial hypothesis that hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon.

Hybrid warfare — also known as grey zone conflict or low-intensity conflict — is a reality and political and military leaders must be ready to confront and deter it. There is no common definition of the term and therefore it is correspondingly ambiguous. It is an amorphous definition for an amorphous strategy. While it is a blend of traditional and irregular tactics, hybrid warfare makes overt and covert use of a wide range of tools: military and civilian, conventional and unconventional. Hybrid warfare is an umbrella concept, a form of comprehensive warfare, a strategy, that includes a buquet of tactics, techniques, technologies and methods. Hybrid warfare operations, for which it is difficult to attribute responsibility and which are not specifically regulated by international law, fall below the threshold of armed conflict. Hybrid warfare blurs the lines between peace and war and is therefore questioned whether it should be considered below the threshold of armed conflict. Some hybrid warfare operations are convenient because are located in a twilight zone between peace and war and below the threshold of war and therefore they should not trigger a conventional/kinetic military response. Nevertheless, at the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales, the allies recognized that international law applies in cyberspace and that the impact of cyberattacks could be as harmful as a conventional attack. As a result, cyberdefense was recognized as part of NATO's core task of collective defense. At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, the allies took further action to recognize cyberspace as a domain of operations just like the "classic" domains of air, land and sea. At the NATO summit held in Brussels in 2021, the allies reaffirmed that a cyber attack could trigger Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter: "an attack on one is an attack on all". This doctrinal position is of no small importance. The question is whether hybrid warfare should be considered an armed attack or use of force that, under treaty and customary international law, could trigger ...

The
geopolitical, military, and economic development of the People's Republic of
China (PRC) represents a challenge to the world order that international actors
will have to manage in the coming years. The destructuring approach of the
current international system, based on US pre-eminence, is attacked
simultaneously in three fields.
It is a method that does not respect the rules of strategic logic and is
capable of leading to the collapse of the Chinese regime due to the strong
international friction it will create. The
strategic realignment of the United Kingdom, USA, Japan, and Australia that has
been in place since 2021 to contain China's international activism is a signal
of a highly protective containment strategy currently deployed by the western
allies led by Washington, but it is especially proof that Chinese policies are
creating counter-reactions.