Suchergebnisse

China is experiencing rapid and large scale urbanization, and the resulting local and global urban environmental challenges are unprecedented. The Chinese Government has fully recognized these challenges and is aiming to promote more sustainable urbanization in line with the objectives of the eleventh five year plan, which calls for 'building a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly society'. Various initiatives are being pursued to support this objective, both at the national and local levels. At the local level, cities have responded by developing 'eco-cities', which aim to promote a more sustainable urbanization model. More than one hundred eco-city initiatives have been launched in recent years. One such initiative is the Sino-Singapore Tianjin eco-city. The purpose of this report is to review the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (SSTEC) project from a comprehensive perspective with a view to achieving the following principal objectives: (i) create a detailed knowledge base on the project; (ii) provide policy advice on key issues, especially those related to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project; (iii) estimate SSTEC's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction potential; and (iv) contextualize the project among the broader ecological urban development initiatives in China. Broadening the World Bank's engagement beyond the GEF was assessed as important given the project's complexity, and its potential to shed light on China's sustainable urban development challenges

Jordan is an upper middle income country which has proven remarkably resilient despite decades of turmoil in its neighborhood. Even with economic stability in the face of massive shocks, the Jordanian government - reflecting the views of the population - has made clear the need for improvement in the current growth trajectory. Public dissatisfaction coalesced around a perception, which the government acknowledges, that previous reform efforts had struggled with implementation, while discretionary decisions and unequal opportunities remain entrenched. In response, the government is moving to the implementation phase of its Jordan 2025 strategic blueprint, a new ten-year strategy formally launched in May 2015. The Bank's systematic country diagnostic (SCD) is therefore unfolding at a critical inflection point for the government. Given existing reform momentum around the energy sector and investment, the substantive engagement of the Bank Group and other development partners, the SCD will seek added value by providing an integrative and concise perspective on what Jordan can do to better meet the expectations of its citizens. As a multi-sector evidence-based diagnostic, the SCD relies upon consistent and integrated analysis of data from various sources.

This paper assesses the impact of the demobilization, reinsertion and reintegration program in post-war Burundi. Two major rebel groups benefited from cash and in-kind transfers, the CNDD-FDD from 2004, and the FNL from 2010. A panel data of households collected in 2006 and 2010 is combined with official records from the National Commission for Demobilization, Reinsertion and Reintegration. Regression analysis shows that the cash payments received by FNL demobilized households had a positive impact on consumption, nonfood spending and investments. The program also generated positive spillovers in the villages where FNL combatants returned. Ex-combatants indeed spent a large part of their allowance on consumption goods and clothing, thereby generating a short-run economic boom in villages. However, the long-run evolution of consumption indicators is negative for CNDD-FDD households, as well as for villages where CNDD-FDD combatants returned, suggesting that the direct impact and the spillovers of the program vanished in the long run.

This book presents the findings of the technical assistance. Above all, it shows how transport and energy infrastructure contributes to poverty reduction, and why these contributions are important. One new aspect that emerges is that, in addition to their impacts on income dimensions of poverty, transport and energy have significant impacts on nonincome dimensions such as health, education, personal security, and community participation. The book also recommends a series of policy and operational-level refinements for increasing the poverty reduction impact.

This book presents the findings of the technical assistance. Above all, it shows how transport and energy infrastructure contributes to poverty reduction, and why these contributions are important. One new aspect that emerges is that, in addition to their impacts on income dimensions of poverty, transport and energy have significant impacts on nonincome dimensions such as health, education, personal security, and community participation. The book also recommends a series of policy and operational-level refinements for increasing the poverty reduction impact.

AbstractThe purpose of this research was to adapt Antonak and Harth's (1994) Mental Retardation Attitudes Inventory for the Kuwaiti culture and to investigate its four‐dimensional structure. The study also aimed at identifying a unidimensional subset of items besides examining the quality of the identified items and the overall inventory. The 34 ‐item adapted inventor y was administered to 56 4 college students. Item analysis indicated that 29 items have had good psychometric characteristics. However, the exploratory factor analysis, cross‐correlations of scale and item scores, and correlations among scales did not support the four‐dimensional structure of the adapted inventory. Further, the sample was split into two random halves. A uni‐dimensional subset of 20 items was identified in one sample by iterative factor analyzing the item data and discarding items with small loadings. The other sample was used to cross‐validate uni‐dimensionality of the identified items. Analysis indicated that scores of the 20‐item inventory have high Cronbach coefficient alpha, and high stability and generalizability coefficients. Partial support for the validity of the scores had been ascertained by comparing the scores of male and female students, and by regressing the inventor y scores on indicators of familiarity with individuals with mental retardation. Findings were discussed with reference to Kuwaiti culture.Over the last two decades, inclusion has internationally become a critical part of the reform efforts to improve the delivery of services to individuals with Mental Retardation (MR). This trend focuses on increasing the opportunities for the placement of these individuals in the same social and educational set tings as individuals without MR. The new arrangements for providing services have created challenges to people without disabilities concerning acceptance, integration, and inclusion of individuals with MR into the mainstream of society (Praisner, 2003). Many researchers (e.g. Priestly, 1998; Yazbeck McVilly & Parmenter, 2004) have convincingly argued that these challenges have their roots in the societal norms and values that concurrently developed throughout the unfolding history of the meaning of MR. As Priestly (1998) noted, although people with differences have existed in all societies, the degree to which they were integrated or excluded varied according to predominant cultural perceptions. Yazbeck, McVilly and Parmenter (2004) suggested that people's attitudes toward individuals with MR are socially constructed and are acquired through experience over time.Individuals with MR are often judged by people based on their disability instead of their whole lives and what they may accomplish and experience during their life (Blatt, 1987). Consequently, People may rely on false generalization and develop negative attitudes towards individuals with MR. Makas, Finnerty‐Fried, Sugafoos, and Reiss (1988) noted that for nondisabled persons, positive attitude toward people with disability is usually conceptualized as being 'nice' and 'helpful', whereas for a person with a disability, the attitude would be dispensing with the category of disability entirely. A study of community attitudes in one state of Australia found that up to 86% of respondents reported feeling 'uncomfortable' when interacting with individuals with disabilities (Enhance Management, 1999). Another study (European Commission, 2001) found that 40% of Europeans reported feeling 'uneasy' in the presence of people with disabilities.Attitudes manifest themselves as positive or negative reactions toward an object, driven by beliefs that impel individuals to behave in a particular way (Yuker, 1988). They comprise a complex of feelings, desires, fears, convictions, prejudices, or other tendencies learned through varied experiences that give rise to a set or readiness to act toward a person in a certain way (Chaiken & Stangor,1987). This means that attitude is not behavior, but the precondition of behavior. In addition, Myers, Ager, Kerr, and Myles (1998) identified three types of attitudes that influence how non‐disabled people interact with, and include or exclude people with disabilities: (1) A preparedness to engage with people as consumers, neighbors, or friends; (2) a lack of awareness about individuals with MR; and (3) a wariness or hostility regarding the idea of community integration.Research has shown that the third type of attitudes, which represents negative and non‐acceptance of individuals with MR is commonly observed (Gething, 1994; Schwartz & Armony‐Sivan, 2001). Such negative attitudes in a society may present people with MR as a burden on the welfare system. Moreover, people might not see individuals with disabilities as possessing a valuable social role or possessing the same abilities and characteristics that the majority of people possess. Tus, individuals with MR may not be accepted or included in society and may often be treated badly. In turn, Wolfensberger (1988) indicated that individuals with MR, being in a devalued position, would behave badly as they think that this is what is expected of them.As integration of persons with MR is increasingly becoming a global reality, Kuwait has designed social policy aimed at promoting acceptance and inclusion of people with disabilities into the mainstream of society. To implement the policy of integration, the Kuwaiti government is continually forming inclusive services for individuals with MR. The recent policy of inclusion (law 13/96), which has been adopted in 1996, asserts that people with disabilities have a fundamental right to live and grow within their local communities. This law has spawned an expanded system of services to encourage people with disabilities to live like people without disabilities. Inclusion policies give individuals with MR the right to be involved in the same situations as people without MR. For example, more individuals with MR, for example, are being employed. Moreover, most children with Downs syndrome now attend Kindergarten and are included in social programs for children in the general population. The general goal of all types of services provided for individuals with MR is to improve their participation in society.Although the Kuwaiti government has shown a growing interest in the integration of individuals with MR, the chances of these individuals being able to integrate into mainstream society would depend on the attitude of others, such as students, teachers, coworkers, social workers, professionals, towards them. These attitudes, as found in many Western studies (Antonak & Harth, 1994; Gordon, Tantillo, Feldman & Perrone, 2004) are, for the most part, negative, which may contribute to negative outcomes on the part of individuals with MR (Byon, 2000). According to Wright (1983), disability situations are vulnerable to fundamental negative attitudes, and this would seem to be even truer in the culture found in Kuwait.In Kuwaiti culture, disability has stigmatizing effect on members of the immediate and extended family; families tend to keep members with MR out of the sight of other people. This contributes to social exclusion of people with MR. There is also the traditional common belief that disability is related to (1) God's willing that the parent should have a child with a disability, (2) God is punishing the parent, (3) God is testing the parent, or (4) God is selecting the parent for an unknown reason. Commonly, persons with MR have been considered burdensome and shameful, because they are incapable of contributing to traditional social obligations and roles.While those traditional beliefs still exist, the law 13/96 was legislated to support the integration of persons with MR into various aspects of life. Consequently, we expect that people in the society would react to this trend with frustration, anger, or refusal. Usually, people in Kuwait have little or no information about individuals with MR; thereby uninformed determinations, such as stereotypes, reflect their attitudes toward these individuals. According to Blatt (1987), a stereotype will fill in the cracks and unanswered questions in a situation with which people are not familiar. Langer (1989) in her theory of 'mindfulness' also shows that stereotype is 'premature cognitive commitments' that leads people to make judgments without enough information and reflection.Moreover, the society labels given to individuals with MR are often accompanied with stigma and negative connotations. This situation makes it difficult for those individuals to be included into society and be accepted for what they actually are and not for what others assume them to be. According to Biklen and Bogdan (1977), this type of discrimination is called 'handicapism' and is defined as'…a set of assumptions and practices that promote differential and unequal treatment of people because of apparent or assumed physical, mental, or behavioral differences' (p.206). These perceptions may prevent individuals with MR from being accepted, and they might be viewed, based on Erikson's theory, as a pseudo species, or as less than human (Smith, 1981).Furthermore, professionals', leaders', and students' views and beliefs about the integration of individuals with MR into society may result in slowing the process of inclusion and discouraging people from accepting these individuals as what they are. For example, though senior staff in Kuwait's Ministry of Social Affairs succeeded in including children with Downs syndrome into public kindergarten, no other effort has been made since 1996 to integrate other children with disabilities into inclusive educational settings. More critical is that, while leaders make efforts toward inclusion, they continue to support the permanent residence of individuals with MR in social welfare institutions and urge the government to provide free health, social and educational services for the residents. Ahmad (2004) found that between 1992 and 2002, there was an increase in the number of children, and males and females adults with MR who live in the Social Welfare Institution for permanent care. The number of residents with MR has increased from 223 to 296.According to Philips (1992), leaders' and professionals' beliefs about individuals with MR could have commenced with the industrial revolution that brought with it the practice of classifying people who were different, and who were not able to pursue personal dreams or act as the industrial society required. Leaders and professionals may perceive individuals with MR, as Blatt (1987) stated, blessed innocents or surplus population that is unnecessary and expendable. These beliefs may never give the individuals with MR an adequate opportunity to present themselves and their abilities to others.Praisner (2003) suggested that leaders' attitudes are the key factor in successful inclusion. Due to leadership position, leaders' and professionals' attitudes about inclusion either could result in increased opportunities for individuals with MR to be served in different settings or increased efforts to support the segregated special education services. According to Goodlad and Lovitt (1993), leaders and professionals have the decision to develop an inclusive setting, if they (1) make and honor commitments, (2) do what they say in formal and informal settings, (3) express interest in inclusion, (4) act and make their actions known, and (5) organize their staff and their physical surroundings to implement inclusive programs. As Praisner (2003) stated, the success of inclusion depends on how leaders exhibit behaviors that advance the integration, acceptance, and success of individuals with disabilities in general settings.Researchers (e.g., Horne, 1985) have also shown that students' positive attitudes may increase their willingness to work with individuals with MR, and lead to removal of barriers to integrate them into society. The positive attitudes of students may help to encourage the establishment of policies and the allocation of resources to increase the integration of individuals with MR into different settings in the society (Yazbeck, et al., 2004).To enhance the policy of inclusion in Kuwait, society needs to evaluate some of its structures and change people's attitudes to fit the needs of individuals with MR instead of making these individuals fit society's structures. Helping individuals with MR to be included into society and establish socially valued roles would not be difficult if the attitudes of society are less restrictive and less resistant to change.As Kuwait continues to develop social and educational policy about inclusion, researchers must pay attention to the connection between integration and attitudes. The provision of educational and social opportunities for individuals with MR can be legislated by Kuwait's government, but acceptance from other people cannot be ensured without knowing people's beliefs and thoughts about persons with MR.Developing an understanding of the attitudes that is predominant in society, which in turn influences the actions of its members, is critical if we plan for social changes and for evaluating the effectiveness of public policy on promoting an inclusive society (Schwartz & Armony‐Sivan, 2001). Given that there are negative attitudes toward people with MR, particular care must be taken to monitor changing social attitudes toward these individuals to identify any serious impediment to the progress of their inclusion in different settings: schools, workplace, and the wider community.Research that is relevant to individuals with disabilities (e.g. Geskie & Salasek, 1988; Antonak & Harth, 1994) has revealed the need for researchers to investigate the attitudes of people toward MR. Wolfensberger (1983) suggested that the key to changing how people are valued socially is to change the perceptions people have about individuals who may differ from the norm. Research, however, has indicated that the investigation of attitudes toward individuals with MR requires a psychometrically sound instrument. It is crucial to conduct research to gather accurate information about these attitudes; it would clarify people's awareness of persons with MR, and assist in evaluating intervention programs and developing appropriate course work for special education fields. Further, it would inform public policy decisions, funding priorities, and service delivery, which in turn, enhance the likelihood of achieving successful integration and improving qua lit y of life for persons with MR (Antonak & Harth, 19 94; Schalock, 1990). Accurate measurement of attitudes could also lead to early detection of negative attitudes, such as personal prejudices, misconceptions, and irrational fears of professionals, social workers, and teachers when they first get involved in disability work settings. Furthermore, it would help in providing a baseline for monitoring changes in their attitudes over time (Byon, 2000).Changing attitudes would help in supporting efforts of individuals with MR to become autonomous (Philips, 1992), and help to decrease the resistance of others to allow people with MR to make decisions about their own lives and to be independent (Schalock, 1990). As the history of the deinstitutionalization movement has shown, becoming autonomous and independent are not as simple as releasing people from state facilities and hoping they survive on their own. Autonomy and independence are based upon choice‐making, and choice‐making must be taught to people with MR, as they have never been allowed to make their own choices and do not know how to rationally choose for themselves.However, as Crutcher (1990) noted, personal choice is based on opportunity, and opportunity is accessible only when society decides it should be. Therefore, in order for individuals with MR to have the opportunity to make their own decisions and be successfully included in society, special effort must be taken to change peoples' attitudes towards them.Moreover, a psychometrically sound instrument of attitudes helps researchers to assess with known precision respondents' feelings about individuals with MR (affective aspect of attitudes), and their conceptions about them (cognitive aspect of attitudes). On the affective side, there are feelings of approval or disapproval of individuals with MR in the society. On the cognitive side, there are beliefs, knowledge, and expectations that affect people's behavior towards individuals with MR. The affective and cognitive aspects affect the respondents' opinions of what services should be provided for individuals with MR and what policy should be adopted. These also assist in the design, implementation, and evaluation of social intervention program and strategies geared toward removing barriers to integration (Geskie & Salasek, 1988).The present study focused on adapting, for use in Kuwait, the Mental Retardation Attitude Inventory‐Revised (MR AI‐R) of Antonak and Harth (1994). The MRAI‐R was chosen because of the limitations of the MR attitudes' instruments in the Gulf States, and in particular the lack of such an instrument in Kuwait. After reviewing literature, it seemed that there was only one measure of attitudes; an inventory developed by Qaryauti (1988). Despite the claimed appropriateness of Qaryauti's scale, we decided to use the MRAI‐R of Antonak and Harth for several reasons. First, Qaryauti's scale was based on Western instruments that Antonak and Harth criticized and motivated them to construct the MRAI‐R. In contrast, Antonak and Harth constructed the MRAI‐R based on a review of more than 50 years of the attitude literature, and developed their inventory on the most available valid instrument.Second, by reviewing the items of the MRAI‐R and Qaryauti's scale, it was clear to us that the MRAI‐R is more consistent with the requirements of the law 13/96 that was mandated in Kuwait to assure the right of individuals with MR to be included into public schools, workplace, and the wider community (see Table 1). Third, the MRAI‐R, unlike Qaryauti's scale, incorporates several components of attitudes: (1) the integration‐segregation of individuals with MR in various school programs, workplace, and community; (2) the willingness of people to be associated with individuals with MR (Social Distance); (3) the rights of individuals with MR to be included in schools, communities, and the workplace (Private Rights); and (4) the derogatory beliefs of people about the moral character and social behavior of individuals with MR. Of the 22 items in Qaryauti's scale, 13 were related to derogatory beliefs, six to social distance, and only three to private rights and integration‐segregation.Fourth, many transcultural researchers have used the MRAI‐R in populations as diverse as the United States, Australia, and Korea. In the US, Ward (1998) used the MRAI‐R to explore relationships between empathy and attitudes among 200 parents and adult consumers with developmental disabilities. Also, Yozwiak (2002) utilized the MRAI‐R to examine the beliefs and attitudes of 210 community members toward a child with MR who was a witness to a sexual abuse case. In an Australian study, Yazbeck and others (2004) used MRAI‐R to examine differences in attitudes between students and professionals in disability services, and persons in the general community (N=492). In Korea, Byon's study (2000) used the MRAI‐R to investigate the effect of social desirability on attitudes toward MR, and to compare the relationships between attitude measures (both direct and indirect measures) and behavioral outcome indicators. Obviously, findings from a large number of studies using the MRAI‐R contribute to its validity. In contrast, we failed to find any study in which Qaryauti's scale was used.Based on the above arguments, it seems that the MRAI‐R would be useful in needs assessments, especially in schools and mental health clinics. For example, when the ministry of education decides to implement the inclusion policy in schools, there would be a need to assess attitudes of teachers and students towards students with MR. The results of such assessment would help in designing programs that improve attitudes as needed. The MRAI‐R can also be useful for social workers, professionals, and researchers who work in a variety of primary social welfare settings. It helps them to identify and target those people who are the most in need of training and preparation to change their attitudes toward MR. In a wider scale, non‐profit organizations can use results of assessing attitudes in advocating the rights of those individuals.In general, the primary usage of the MRAI‐R could be: (1) screening for early identification of negative attitudes; (2) assessing attitudes of specific groups toward persons with MR; (3) pre‐ or post‐ measurement in intervention studies; and (4) helping researchers who aim at studying the effects of attitudes on different variables in the life of people with MR (i.e. job satisfaction, life satisfaction, family relationship, social support), or the relationship between attitudes and demographic variables (i.e. gender, age, marital status, employment, educational status, familiarity with individuals with MR).Following the recommendation of Antonak and Livneh (1988) that researchers should use the existing instruments and stop creating new ones, the purpose of the present study is to develop an Arabic inventory of attitudes toward individuals with MR by adapting the MRAI‐R to be suitable for use in Kuwait. Specifically, the study aimed at: (1) revising the MRAI‐R items to make them suitable to Kuwait's culture; (2) investigating the suitability of the four‐factor‐structure of the MRAI‐R for measuring attitudes toward individuals with MR in Kuwait; (3) selecting a uni‐dimensional subset of items, if the four‐factor‐structure was not confirmed; and (4) examining the psychometric characteristics of the adapted inventory.We decided to carry out this study on college students for various reasons: (1) college students are prospective educators or professionals who will be either dealing with people with MR or making decisions that affect their lives; (2) college students in Kuwait play an active role in social change and in changing public opinions;(3) they are representative cross‐section of Kuwaiti society; (4) a sample of college students is more easily acquired than a sample from the general population.

Podemos recurrir a un simple modelo para hacer más visible el proceso. Por ejemplo, el modelo de De la Fuente descansa en 3 variables para pensar la convergencia y divergencia. Hay una variable X que refleja las condiciones iniciales de una economía, como por ejemplo el clima, la extensión territorial y la existencia de una riqueza minera o petrolera. El petróleo en Arabia Saudita sería un ejemplo representativo. En segundo lugar, De la Fuente menciona la existencia de una variable Beta. Esta variable representa condiciones de una economía en relación a otra. Por ejemplo, el deterioro o mejora en los términos de intercambio a partir de la aparición de una economía emergente (como China en la última década) genera modificaciones relativas. Por su parte, hay una variable aleatoria.Así, El modelo básico de De la Fuente es el siguiente:/\Yi,t = Xi –β Yi,t +€itDonde β refleja la correlación entre la tasa de crecimiento y el nivel de renta. La relación puede ser positiva o negativa y proporciona una medida de la velocidad (según la pendiente). €it es una perturbación aleatoria y X resume las características fundamentales del país I, que podrían influir sobre su ritmo de crecimiento. Es constante en el tiempo y la medida es 0. Es decir, hay quienes de acuerdo a X tienen más potencial y otros menos que la media.En esta segunda parte apelaremos a tres teorías para explicar las dos cortas convergencias y la larga divergencia de Argentina y Chile desde 1880 hasta la actualidad. En primer lugar, recurriremos al modelo neoclásico de Solow. En segundo lugar, apelaremos a la teoría de la dependencia y en tercer lugar a una explicación institucional.1) Enfoque neoclásicoLa primera convergencia argentina descansa en las ventajas relativas para insertarse en el comercio mundial. Esta Beta puede describirse a partir del modelo de Solow ya que la relación complementaria que desarrolló Argentina con Inglaterra supuso no sólo un creciente intercambio de bienes sino un creciente flujo de capitales. Tanto en la experiencia argentina como chilena de finales del siglo XIX y principios del siglo XX, es posible ver como el ahorro de los países ricos (particularmente inglés) buscaba mercados alternativos dado que tenía un rendimiento marginal decreciente en sus respectivas economías. Principalmente Argentina y, en menor medida Chile, se posicionaron como dos economías atractivas para recibir el excedente de ahorro que tenía el país más rico del mundo.Argentina y Chile: Primera Convergencia (1880-1929)En la siguiente tabla podemos ver el sorprendente peso relativo de Argentina y, en menor medida, Chile en la inversión Británica en la región.Fuente: RipleyEn segundo lugar, ¿Cómo explicar la larga divergencia que sufrieron Argentina y Chile entre 1930 y el final del siglo XX a partir de la teoría neoclásica? Podemos pensar que en cierta forma es la contracara del período anterior: si durante la primera convergencia se consolidó una economía globalizada donde los aranceles formales y reales (como el mencionado costo de transporte) caían y eso hacía que el capital buscara sin restricciones los ámbitos donde podía maximizar el retorno, luego, a partir de la "Gran Depresión", se sucedieron políticas proteccionistas que desincentivaron la llegada de inversión extranjera. Para la teoría neoclásica solowiana, la primera convergencia fue causada por la β que significaba la existencia de incentivos para la llegada de capitales y la posterior divergencia se explica por la β que expresaba la desaparición de esos incentivos, es decir, por la llegada de políticas proteccionistas que dificultaron o imposibilitaron la inversión extranjera.Argentina: Larga Divergencia (1930-2003)Chile: Larga Divergencia (1930-1990)Si bien Argentina y Chile vivieron un proceso de convergencia similar y un proceso de divergencia largo y traumático, podemos ahora marcar una "divergencia" en las características que la segunda y actual convergencia ha tomado en uno y otro país. Mientras en Chile la última convergencia comienza en 1990 y descansa en la creciente inversión extranjera y apertura al mundo, en Argentina el modelo neoclásico explicaría el crecimiento argentino desde 2003 en adelante como consecuencia de las ventajas comparativas que una economía colapsada encontró en un mercado mundial que demandaba sus productos. Es decir, desde la visión neoclásica, la nueva convergencia descansaría en una economía altamente competitiva como consecuencia de una moneda colapsada que generó bienes exportables muy baratos en dólares.2) Teoría de la dependenciaDesde la construcción teórica que nos ofrece la escuela de la CEPAL y la teoría de la dependencia, podemos recurrir al deterioro y mejora de los términos de intercambio para explicar la primera convergencia desde 1880 hasta la "Gran Depresión", la larga divergencia que siguió a 1929 y se consolidó en la posguerra y a la convergencia actual. Tanto en Argentina como en Chile sucedió un proceso de mejora en los términos de intercambio al menos hasta la primera guerra mundial. Esta variable es una β ya que no depende de las condiciones iniciales de la economía sino de la relación entre el precio de los bienes que una economía exporta con el precio de los bienes que esa economía importa.Argentina y Chile: Convergencia (1830-1929)Argentina y Chile: Divergencia (1930-finales del siglo XX)Argentina y Chile: Convergencia (Finales del siglo XX en adelante)Sostienen Brambilla, Galiani y Porto que "Argentine trade policies swang from episodes of open trade, especially at the end of the 1800s and during the early 1900s, to episodes of a strong anti-export bias and import substitution, especially after 1930 and until the 1990s. Our analysis tells a story of bad trade policies, rooted in distributional conflict and shaped by changes in constraints, that favored industry over agriculture in a country with a fundamental comparative advantage in agriculture. While the anti-export bias impeded productivity growth in agriculture, the import substitution strategy was not successful in promoting industrialization. In the end, Argentine growth never took-off" (LAMES/2009/1141/AE_Brambilla_Galiani_Porto.pdf).Tomamos un gráfico de la CEPALFuente: http://prebisch.cepal.org/es/sigloXXI/terminos-intercambioEn segundo lugar, es posible recurrir en la escuela cepaliana para explicar la larga divergencia. Gráfico 3: Términos de intercambio de Argentina (1945-1973)Fuente: econserialcronica.orgEn tercer lugar, la nueva convergencia ha descansado en parte en una mejoría en los términos de intercambio. El siguiente gráfico refleja la experiencia argentina entre 1986 y 2012. Es posible ver que sucede una notable mejora a partir de 2003, justamente cuando el país comienza a salir de su crisis política.Gráfico 4Fuente: http://www.infocadena.com/columnistas/columnistas.html3) Enfoque Neo-institucionalistaDe las tres teorías elegidas, el neo-institucionalismo representa más cabalmente a una explicación que descansa en una X, es decir, variables no relacionales que reflejan escenarios donde es difícil o incluso imposible modificar determinadas situaciones. Argentina y Chile: Primera Convergencia (1880-1929)Sin embargo, definir las instituciones como X es problemático: si bien es muy difícil modificar las instituciones estructuralmente de un período a otro, sí es posible modificar sucesivas instituciones en el mediano y largo plazo. En Argentina hay una amplia literatura que explica la larga decadencia (o divergencia) a partir del creciente incumplimiento de los preceptos de la Constitución liberal de 1853-60. ¿Qué significa un "creciente incumplimiento" de una determinada norma o un conjunto de normas? Si bien es difícil medirlo, es posible mencionar una creciente debilidad de los derechos de propiedad. Para una economía insertada en el mundo a partir de las ventajas comparativas del modelo agro-exportador, la delimitación de los derechos de propiedad es una condición más relevante de lo que lo es para, ceteris paribus, una economía cerrada.Paso seguido, la experiencia argentina tiene distintos hitos institucionales relevantes que contribuyen a pensar que, en un determinado momento, "las instituciones" contribuyeron para la convergencia y en otro momento contribuyeron para la divergencia. Pero si eso es así, ello podría significar que o una misma institución explica A y no-A o que las instituciones fueron paulatinamente modificadas y suena anti-tuitivo.Si bien sería necesaria una argumentación más elaborada, el papel de las instituciones en el modelo de De La Fuente podría representar tanto una X como un β. Sin embargo, en ese escenario nos enfrentaríamos a un problema adicional ya que sería necesario definir instituciones en forma más precisa y rigurosa. Es decir, sería sencillo refutar esta definición (las instituciones como X y β) sosteniendo que en realidad no es que "las instituciones sean X y β" sino que no es posible hablar como si las reglas de juego fueran uniformes. Así, sería necesario desagregar aquello que, por falta de rigurosidad, habríamos agregado en nuestra definición inicial. Siguiendo este simple y válido razonamiento: no es que "las instituciones" puedan ser X y B dependiendo las circunstancias sino que hay reglas de juego que son X y hay otras reglas de juego que son B y eventualmente sucede que algunas reglas de juego devienen en instituciones formales.Paso seguido, en Argentina el neo-institucionalismo sería un X que explicaría el primer período de convergencia entre 1880 y 1929 a partir de la existencia de un aparato estatal y una dinámica sociedad civil que acogieron e interpretaron el espíritu liberal de la Constitución de 1853. Esta Constitución estaba inspirada en parte en la Constitución de los Estados Unidos y en los escritos de Juan Bautista Alberdi (principalmente, "Bases y puntos de partida para la organización nacional" y "Sistema económico y rentístico"). Es importante remarcar que dentro de estas "condiciones iniciales" mencionamos tanto el espíritu de la letra constitucional (que, según esta tradición de pensamiento, fue respetada por el aparato estatal) como también mencionamos el espíritu de la sociedad civil. ¿Puede ser tomada una sociedad civil como parte de determinadas "condiciones iniciales"? Ello podría haber sucedido dada la particular experiencia inmigratoria argentina de finales del siglo XIX. Es decir, Argentina era una nueva nación en el momento que recibió una gran oleada inmigratoria europea y ello habría contribuido a un papel fundacional o, en términos de De La fuente, a constituirse (la inmigración) en un X en lugar de un β. En cambio, podemos pensar que una similar oleada inmigratoria en la actualidad no podría constituirse como actor fundacional y devendría un β. Así, podemos ver que un mismo actor o variable es un X en un contexto y un β en otro contexto.La declinación argentina ha fascinado a investigadores de distinto tipo. Por ejemplo, el austaliano Alan Taylor comienza un artículo en "The Journal of Economic History" de la siguiente manera: "Once one of the richest countries in the world, Argentina has been in relative economic decline for most of the twentieth century. The quantitative records of income growth and accumulation date the onset of the retardation to around the time of the Great War, and patterns of aggregate saving and foreign borrowing show that scarcity of investable resources significantly frustrated interwar development. A demographic model of national saving demonstrates that the burdens of rapid population growth and substantial immigration depressed Argentine saving, contributing significantly to the demise of the Belle Epoque following the wartime collapse of international financial markets" ("External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Epoque" que, Vol 52, Nro 4, 1992).Por su parte, otro reconocido historiador como el cubano Carlos Díaz-Alejandro es citado por Taylor en el mismo artículo con la siguiente frase: "It is common nowadays to lump the Argentine economy in the same category with the economies of other Latin American nations. Some opinion even puts it among such less developed nations as India and Nigeria. Yet, most economists writing during the first three decades of this century would have placed Argentina among the most advanced countries-with Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia. To have called Argentina "underdeveloped" in the sense that word has today would have been considered laughable. Not only was per capita income high, but its growth was one of the highest in the world.'"Siguiendo el pensamiento de Taylor y Díaz-Alejandro, es posible pensar que la historia va camino a repetirse y que esta última convergencia podría estar llegando a su fin. Consiguientemente, será necesario en otro momento estudiar la divergencia Argentina con respecto a Chile. Pedro Isern es profesor del Depto. Estudios Internacionales, FACS - Universidad ORT Uruguay.Master en Filosofía Política, London School of Economics and Political Science@Pedropisern.

What is a Community Plan? A Community Plan is a planning document that looks at medium and long range community needs and aspirations. The Plan is used to inform all other Council planning processes, including corporate planning, strategic land use planning and infrastructure planning. The Local Government Act 2009 requires Council to create a Community Plan. There is no specific format or process that a Council must go through to create a Community Plan, each Council develops their own approach to meet the needs of the respective communities. The Cloncurry Community Plan: The Cloncurry Shire is working with James Cook University (JCU) and the communities within the Shire to develop their Community Plan. This report summarises the findings of the surveys completed by Long Distance Commuters to Cloncurry Shire. This research examined the work/home environment of a Long Distance Commuter (LDC) to the Cloncurry Shire. The purpose of this research was to determine why they live where they live and what specific services and amenity values are sought at their current place of residence. Information such as this assists the Cloncurry Shire Council to understand the qualities that their communities must match in order to attract a permanent residential mining workforce to the Shire. Long Distance Commuting to Cloncurry Shire: Long distance commuting refers to travel from the usual place of residence for the purposes of work and remaining at the work destination for a period of time. This type of labour force has emerged as the demand for skilled workers outstripped the supply within local labour markets where the mines are located. This has been more recently adopted by the mining industry in the past 40 years as a more financially viable option to creating permanent mining towns. As a consequence of long distance commuting, the practice of establishing or consolidating settlements in remote locations has virtually ceased and this type of work force has become an established transient sub population in remote Australia. The host communities believe that there is a lack of flow on economic benefits from this form of development and the commuters are typically unable to contribute to the civic life of the host community which is in part due to the demanding work rosters that they perform. This study was specifically commissioned by the Cloncurry Shire Council in 2011 as part of the overall consultation for the Community Plan to provide an insight into the temporary sub population characteristics. More specifically the research sought to identify the important attributes and reasons why the long distance commuters chose and continue to live in their place of residence and to compare these to how they perceive Cloncurry. Attracting a permanent residential mining workforce to Cloncurry Shire would enable the type of population growth that levers more secure revenue base for a range of essential services and infrastructure. One of the greatest challenges facing the Shire administration is funding the provision of services and at levels that are prescribed by the state, in addition to those demanded by the resident population. Evidence suggests that population out migration of permanent population is attributed to a lack of state controlled services for specific age cohorts for example secondary school education (refer to Background Report 1 – Demographic Characteristics and Background Report 2 - Community Survey). To enable the Shire to specifically target and attract a permanent resident workforce they first required an understanding of their key characteristics. One thousand four hundred and fifty five (1445) surveys (see Attachment 1) were distributed to mining companies based in Cloncurry Shire for completion. It was decided to limit the study to just mining companies with an established presence in the Shire as it is virtually impossible to determine which exploration company is working on which tenement and when. Nearly one third or 468 surveys were returned completed resulting in a response rate of 32%. The age of the LDC ranged from 19 to 65, half of the sample possessed a certificate or trade qualification and one quarter a tertiary qualification. Two thirds of the sample was single and 85% of the total sample was male. Nearly 100% (99.4%) of the LDC sampled for this study (n=468) were temporary residents in the Shire (ie.0.6% were permanent residents in Cloncurry). Of those temporary residents, 96% flew to work at the commencement and completion of each roster rotation with 50% starting the journey from the Townsville airport. For nearly half of the sample (48.5%) the travel journey took less than three hours and for 17.5% greater than 7 hours. Overall 51% of the LDC sample had been employed for less than two years by their current company. Of those who were employed as contractors (n=172 or 37% of the total sample), one fifth (20%) had been employed for more than five years and half (51%) for less than two years. Surprisingly 40% of the sample has been working more than 5 years in the North West Queensland (NWQ) area and nearly one quarter (25%) greater than 9 years. These results would indicate that the length of work at the prospective company in the shire is relatively low by comparison to the number of years worked in the NWQ area. This further suggests a work related commitment to the area, but not a personal commitment to living in Cloncurry Shire. In addition, the sample demonstrated a high level of experience as LDC workers to remote areas with more than 40% having greater than 5 years experience. One quarter (28%) of the sample indicated that they would continue the commuting lifestyle for more than five years and slightly more than one quarter (29%) for between one and five years. For 41% of the sample they were unsure how much longer they would continue commuting for work. Less than one fifth (19%) of the sample had plans to cease work in the mining industry within the coming one to five years and slightly less than half (46.4%) indicated that they would be working for at least the next five years in mining. Would they move closer to work in the Cloncurry Shire? The vast majority (94.6%) indicated that they had no intention of moving closer to work in the Shire. With results such as these it is not possible to derive statistically valid reasons to describe precisely why the LDC workers would not move. There is far too much variation in the sample characteristics within 94.6% of the sample that indicated that they would not move to Cloncurry to reliably identify predictor variables. General conclusions and inferences can be made to indicate some of the major impediments to establishing a permanent residential workforce. These included: 1. Lack of Recreation and Entertainment (48.5%) 2. Family won't move (46.3%) 3. Lack of services (36.6%) 4. Lack of job opportunities for partner (32%) 5. Lack of Education opportunities (30%) These results would indicate that a diversified economy (to employ partners), a range of education opportunities (for spouse and dependents), a full range of services (social and health infrastructure) and recreation infrastructure would describe some, but not all of the pre move conditions necessary to attract a permanent residential workforce. For nearly half of this sample (48%) the roster system entailed eight days at work and six days at home (ie 8 on and 6 off). This is equivalent to 1:0.75 ratio (ie for every day worked they receive three quarters of a day off). Other rotations included 14 on and 7 off (1:0.5), 14 on and 14 off (1:1), 7 on and 7 off (1:1), and 4 on and 3 off (1:0.75). The roster system rotation is very different to that experienced in the mining sector twenty years ago or indeed even 10 years ago whereby the length of time away at work has dramatically reduced by proportion to the time spent at home. The author's own experience 25 years hence was three months on, 13 days a fortnight, 11 hours a day and 5 days home. This equates to 78 days on and 11 off or alternatively for every one day worked there was 0.14 of a day off. This change in the roster system rotations is related to (amongst other things) improved transport efficiencies, supply and demand of skilled employees and global industry changes to the way in which mining companies operate (see for instance Markey 2011). The Cloncurry Shire will have to consider the market trends that the mining sector is undergoing in order to stay competitive in addition to creating solutions that meet both the needs of the current resident population and the high level of social infrastructure provision necessary to attract the LDC workforce to become permanent residents of the Shire. The Strategies that emerged from this research for incorporation into the Community Plan include: Strategy LDC1: Lobby the state of Queensland and the federal government to upgrade the status of the hospital to enable the provision of a wider range of specialist services. Strategy LDC2: Cloncurry Shire Council and the Queensland Department of Community Services work together to develop and implement community safety plans (with KPI's), identify key safety priorities and seek funding to address accordingly. Strategy LDC3: Create and implement a Shade Creation code within the planning scheme. Strategy LDC4: Implement a Community Safety Plan. Strategy LDC5: Lobby for reliable mobile phone coverage for all communities in the Shire, including the roll out of the National Broadband Network. Strategy LDC6: Seek a review of air transport subsidies and scheduling polices to increase the affordability and frequency of air services. Strategy LDC7: Formalise camping and recreation opportunities at water storages in the Shire (as per youth recommendations). Strategy LDC8: Diversify and strengthen the local economy to provide a range of job opportunities. Strategy LDC9: Address the education facilities and services at the senior level (high school) to be equivalent service provision to that delivered in the urban centres of Queensland.

South Korea is reacting sharply today to a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed Wednesday by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.The treaty notably included a mutual defense clause invoking a defense pact: in the "case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation."The future implications of such an agreement remain uncertain, but the underlying motivation for its signing can be gleaned from Putin's press statements in Pyongyang. The Russian leader drew attention to the U.S. and NATO supplying to Ukraine "long-range high-precision weapons, F-16 aircraft and other technology-intensive arms and equipment for delivering strikes at Russian territory." Putin went on to state that "In this context, the Russian Federation does not rule out developing military and technical cooperation with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea under the document signed today." Clearly, Moscow is demonstrating its ability and willingness to undermine Washington's policy on the Korean Peninsula — a policy that, in principle, Russia had previously backed by endorsing UN sanctions against North Korea. While Putin has been cautious in not seeking an expansion of the fighting in Ukraine to neighboring NATO member-states, in response to US military aid to Ukraine he has expanded ties with Washington's adversaries and sought to disrupt long-standing American policies from East Asia to the Middle East and beyond. In response to the treaty, South Korea stated that it will "reconsider the issue of arms support to Ukraine." At Washington's request, Seoul has already indirectly sent hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine. In fact, South Korea in 2023 indirectly sent more 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine than all European countries combined. This has played an important part in helping Ukraine, which is suffering from serious shortages of ammunition. However, Seoul has so far refrained from dispatching weapons — as opposed to ammunition — to Kyiv to avoid antagonizing Russia.On the one hand, the revitalized Russia-North Korea defense ties could prompt Seoul to revisit its relatively accommodative policy toward Moscow. On the other, the Kremlin presumably hopes that increased tension on the Korean peninsula will discourage Seoul from drawing down its own stocks of ammunition to supply Ukraine, and will remind Washington of the damage that Russia can do to U.S. interests around the world if it increases its own aid to Ukraine and abandons restrictions on how far Ukraine can use U.S. weapons to attack Russian territory.Prior to the Putin-Kim summit, South Korean officials had warned Moscow "not to go beyond a certain point" in its defense cooperation with Pyongyang and vowed to take necessary countermeasures depending on the summit's outcomes. Reiterating his government's desire to maintain stable ties with Russia, South Korean National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin stated in a recent interview, "Moscow should take into consideration which among North Korea and South Korea will be more important to it, once Russia ends its war with Ukraine." From Seoul's perspective, Russia's seemingly unambiguous commitment to supporting Pyongyang in a potential Korean Peninsula conflict — as suggested in their new mutual defense pact — can be viewed as an indication that Moscow is shifting its policy toward the Korean peninsula from pursuing cooperative relations with both Koreas to not minding an adversarial relationship with South Korea for the sake of cooperation with North Korea. It has been widely reported – although both Pyongyang and Moscow deny it – that North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of shells and scores of ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine. The impression that Moscow is more clearly siding with Pyongyang will certainly motivate Seoul to rethink its so-far restrained position on the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine. With the idea of accommodating Moscow to disincentivize its military cooperation with Pyongyang increasingly proving to be a false hope, Seoul may no longer find a strong incentive to bear the political burden of refusing its crucial ally Washington's calls for South Korean military aid to Ukraine. As the battlefield situation in Ukraine shifts in favor of Russia, U.S. pressure on South Korea to send munitions and weapons to Ukraine would only grow, making it more difficult for Seoul to keep resisting cooperation on that front. Seoul is also likely provoked by Moscow's seeming disregard for its several warnings not to cross the line and therefore could find it necessary to respond with strong retaliation in demonstration of resolve. The sense of bitterness could reinforce voices in Seoul calling for sending weapons to Ukraine and weaken voices calling for continued restraint. Additionally, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's continuous struggle to boost his approval rating, which has been hovering around the low 20s, can serve as another motivation for Seoul to consider arms supplies to Ukraine. Showing defiance of Moscow would appeal to the ruling party's traditionally anti-communist conservative political support base and may also gain support from the broader population who might feel embittered by what they would see as Moscow's betrayal of their country's prudent restraint. To be sure, there are also factors that may compel Seoul to think twice about supplying military aid to Ukraine. Exporting a chunk of its stockpiles to Ukraine comes with a dilemma that South Korea's own readiness against North Korea would be reduced. Another question Seoul must consider is what Moscow's reaction would be if it did send Ukraine sophisticated weaponry. Speaking in Vietnam on Thursday, Putin said South Korea had "nothing to worry about" but cautioned against sending arms to Ukraine as "that would be a very big mistake." The Putin-Kim joint statement's relatively vague language on defense capabilities cooperation may leave space for Moscow to refrain from providing Pyongyang with military technologies that Seoul would consider a "red line," including advanced missile and nuclear development technologies. However, if Seoul does increase its arms supplies to Ukraine, the result may well be to bring about Pyongyang's possession of more advanced ballistic missile and tactical nuclear capabilities with Moscow's assistance — something that is regarded in South Korea as a nightmare scenario.It is also questionable how much South Korean arms can improve Ukraine's position on the battlefield. From Moscow's view, the military, economic, and demographic fundamentals of the battlefield strongly favor Russia's ability to effectively continue waging war against Ukraine. The provision of increased lethal aid from South Korea may or may not alter these fundamentals. However, previous examples demonstrate that there has yet to be any silver bullet weapon that dramatically alters Ukraine's ability to dislodge the Russian armed forces from significant portions of occupied Ukrainian territory. Seoul may worry about the risk that its munitions might only serve to further provoke Moscow and encourage more dangerous Russian military cooperation with North Korea without meaningfully improving Ukraine's battlefield situation. Whether Seoul decides to step up as an arms supplier for Ukraine remains to be seen, but overall, the possibility seems to have certainly increased in light of the upgraded Russia-North Korea defense pact. As the threat of new wars proliferate from Europe to the Middle East, and potential conflicts simmer in East Asia, the lack of active and serious communication channels between Washington and Moscow produces ripe environments for an uncontrolled security spiral between the two nuclear superpowers. As long as Russia believes that the U.S. is continuing to tighten the screws around it in Ukraine (or elsewhere in its "near abroad"), Moscow will play its cards to undermine and create problems for the U.S. and its allies across the globe. The dangers of this continuing unchecked could lead to severe consequences for many more than just those already suffering in Ukraine or on either side of the 38th parallel.

Problem setting. The first decades of the XXI century demonstrate the unrestrained, turbulent, even explosive development of the world political process, which raised waves of "color" revolutions, began to distort the national sovereignty of some countries, led to a violation of the international principle of inviolability of postwar borders through military conflicts and "hybrid" wars. It is no longer possible to deny that under modern conditions there is not only a break in the bipolar and unipolar world order, but also a transition to a multipolar world with several centers of influence.Recent research and publications analysis. Empirical approach plays important role in the study of the international systems. It correlates with geopolitical specificity and mainly investigates contemporary interaction of people and states, geopolitical strategies and government tactics within certain geographical regions. Empirical research is characterized by: the desire to specifically explain certain international situation (political, economic, humanitarian), that developed in certain region of the planet, specificity of the systemic connections between global actors; to highlight the level of influence on behavior of the international subjects and decisions of national elites of following factors: socio-humanitarian and economic realities, national potential of the states, cross-regional competition, directions of actions and juridical boundaries regarding interventions of international organizations etc. Serious destructive influence on the contemporary system of international relations is exerted by new wars of the 21st century: wars with terror, cyberwar, "hybrid" wars and so on.Paper objective. The purpose of the article is to seek through systemic, phenomenological and factor-geopolitical analysis to identify the nature of the modern international system and the nature of real and hybrid "drivers" that stimulate its development and, at the same time, turbulence and global shifts. Hence, the research tasks are as follows: according to the ontological parameters to carry out the phenomenology of the "international system"; to systematize the typologies of various international systems; to identify key trends (challenges) of shifts and destructions of the current world order; to substantiate the most significant factors of global turbulence: macro-oscillations of the world system, "geopolitical shifts", international terrorism, "hybrid" wars, humanitarian collapses (pandemic coronavirus), etc.Paper main body. Contemporary conceptualization of the international systems, in our opinion, demands more accurate phenomenological interpretation, since this is a phenomenon of a special type. First of all, international system is a mega-phenomenon of the social type, which organizes the existence of macro communities of planet in a special, relational way. Secondly, international systems are supercomplex in their content and structure, therefore they have to adapt to each other and to elements of the whole environment (this is characteristic of the whole planetary system and of its regional and sub-regional subsystems). Thirdly, according to Phillippe Braillard, informal and poorly organized nature of the international systems is obvious, because it is not always possible to delineate clearly and definitely between the complex that is being studied and its external environment. Fourth of all, international system has capacity of open formation, which explains the low level of integration, even some divergence of components inside of the wholeness.The international system of modernity began to experience radically modern changes under the influence of the powerful "geopolitical landslides" (factors of influence), which caused its turbulence and further transformation: 1) the completion of the collapse of colonial empires and the emergence of many post-colonial countries as independent international actors on the political map of the world, implementing their national-political projects; 2) the global collapse of the model of the "bipolar world" – of closed political systems, which embodied two superpowers of Soviet Union and the United States; the end of the "Cold War"; loss of meaning of the paradigm of the "Third World" for the underdeveloped countries; 3) entrance of new sovereign states into the world arena (after the collapse of the USSR, Yugoslavia, etc.), which are modernizing and introducing their new own geostrategies in international relations; 4) post-communist transformation of the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, Asia and Africa fundamentally changed the ideological balance and geopolitical design of the planet. As a result, the strategic shift of the Baltic-Mediterranean arc into a new geopolitical trajectory took place – into the Baltic-Black Sea arc, along the borders of Russia with the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia; 5) the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system, driven by the success of the quasi-superpowers of the region: Japan (economic strength and investments), China (demographic and industrial capacities), South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (technology); India (leader of social democracy). According to Phillippe Braillard and Mohammad-Reza Djalili, this results from the existence of regional subsystems - a set of specific interactions based on general geographic affiliation; 6) the geopolitical "weight" of the South Asian sub-region grows because of the collapse of the North Korea's "nuclear blackmail" militaristic strategy, thanks to the successes of diplomacy of the US President Donald Trump; 7) paradoxically, but currently the political-economic competition between strategic partners - the USA and the European Union - is intensifying. At the same time, military-political tensions between the Russian Federation and the United States and NATO, as global rivals in various geopolitical aspects – war in Syria, sanctions against the Russian Federation because of the annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine – are growing; global migration; Iranian, Iraqi and Venezuelan issues, etc.Turbulent character and macro fluctuations of transitional international system of "misbalance and mutual equilibriums", additionally is determined by the competitive coexistence of states of stable and transitional democracy, autocratic states (that can be differentiated into traditional-conservative, military-totalitarian, authoritarian-modernized) and specific quasi-states. This combination of authoritarianism with liberal democracy is problematic, and leaves impact on the global politics – temporary restorations of the post-communist governments, lack of competent and responsible bureaucracy, corruption-related scandals in the international structures, ignoring of the demands of the global states in questions relating to survival of humankind. The most important factors in the destabilization of the world system are wars, international terrorism and global problems, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic.Conclusions. Contemporary international system is currently in a state of transitional from the unipolar world to the multipolar one, from the stability that prevailed after the collapse of the world socialist system to the qualitatively new international system with several fulcrums. But this process is very complex and prolonged; it will be constantly influenced by the new "geopolitical shifts", as factors contributing to global turbulence and macro fluctuations of the transitional international system: the final collapse of the colonial system; the destruction of the model of the "bipolar world" and the emergence of sovereign states that implement their own geostrategies on a world arena; problems of coexistence of countries in stable and transitional democracy, autocracies and specific quasi-states; strategic shift of the Baltic-Black Sea arc to the borders of Russia with the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia; the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system; increase in economic competition of strategic partners – the USA and the European Union; an increase in military-political tension between the Russian Federation and the US with NATO, and so on. ; В исследовательских кейсах статьи представлен научный дискурс по вопросам сущности, методологии анализа, типологий международных систем; концептуализированы новые понятия и «гибридные явления»; гипотезы и выводы авторов на почве синтеза системной и геополитической парадигм; проанализированы феномены международного терроризма, «гибридной» войны, пандемии коронавируса как важных факторов турбулентности современной международной системы. ; У дослідницьких кейсах статті представлено науковий дискурс щодо питань сутності, методології аналізу, типологій міжнародних систем; концептуалізовані нові поняття та «гібридні явища»; гіпотези і висновки авторів на ґрунті синтезу системної та геополітичної парадигм; проаналізовано феномени міжнародного тероризму, «гібридної» війни, пандемії коронавірусу як важливих чинників турбулентності сучасної міжнародної системи.

Problem setting. The first decades of the XXI century demonstrate the unrestrained, turbulent, even explosive development of the world political process, which raised waves of "color" revolutions, began to distort the national sovereignty of some countries, led to a violation of the international principle of inviolability of postwar borders through military conflicts and "hybrid" wars. It is no longer possible to deny that under modern conditions there is not only a break in the bipolar and unipolar world order, but also a transition to a multipolar world with several centers of influence.Recent research and publications analysis. Empirical approach plays important role in the study of the international systems. It correlates with geopolitical specificity and mainly investigates contemporary interaction of people and states, geopolitical strategies and government tactics within certain geographical regions. Empirical research is characterized by: the desire to specifically explain certain international situation (political, economic, humanitarian), that developed in certain region of the planet, specificity of the systemic connections between global actors; to highlight the level of influence on behavior of the international subjects and decisions of national elites of following factors: socio-humanitarian and economic realities, national potential of the states, cross-regional competition, directions of actions and juridical boundaries regarding interventions of international organizations etc. Serious destructive influence on the contemporary system of international relations is exerted by new wars of the 21st century: wars with terror, cyberwar, "hybrid" wars and so on.Paper objective. The purpose of the article is to seek through systemic, phenomenological and factor-geopolitical analysis to identify the nature of the modern international system and the nature of real and hybrid "drivers" that stimulate its development and, at the same time, turbulence and global shifts. Hence, the research tasks are as follows: according to the ontological parameters to carry out the phenomenology of the "international system"; to systematize the typologies of various international systems; to identify key trends (challenges) of shifts and destructions of the current world order; to substantiate the most significant factors of global turbulence: macro-oscillations of the world system, "geopolitical shifts", international terrorism, "hybrid" wars, humanitarian collapses (pandemic coronavirus), etc.Paper main body. Contemporary conceptualization of the international systems, in our opinion, demands more accurate phenomenological interpretation, since this is a phenomenon of a special type. First of all, international system is a mega-phenomenon of the social type, which organizes the existence of macro communities of planet in a special, relational way. Secondly, international systems are supercomplex in their content and structure, therefore they have to adapt to each other and to elements of the whole environment (this is characteristic of the whole planetary system and of its regional and sub-regional subsystems). Thirdly, according to Phillippe Braillard, informal and poorly organized nature of the international systems is obvious, because it is not always possible to delineate clearly and definitely between the complex that is being studied and its external environment. Fourth of all, international system has capacity of open formation, which explains the low level of integration, even some divergence of components inside of the wholeness.The international system of modernity began to experience radically modern changes under the influence of the powerful "geopolitical landslides" (factors of influence), which caused its turbulence and further transformation: 1) the completion of the collapse of colonial empires and the emergence of many post-colonial countries as independent international actors on the political map of the world, implementing their national-political projects; 2) the global collapse of the model of the "bipolar world" – of closed political systems, which embodied two superpowers of Soviet Union and the United States; the end of the "Cold War"; loss of meaning of the paradigm of the "Third World" for the underdeveloped countries; 3) entrance of new sovereign states into the world arena (after the collapse of the USSR, Yugoslavia, etc.), which are modernizing and introducing their new own geostrategies in international relations; 4) post-communist transformation of the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, Asia and Africa fundamentally changed the ideological balance and geopolitical design of the planet. As a result, the strategic shift of the Baltic-Mediterranean arc into a new geopolitical trajectory took place – into the Baltic-Black Sea arc, along the borders of Russia with the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia; 5) the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system, driven by the success of the quasi-superpowers of the region: Japan (economic strength and investments), China (demographic and industrial capacities), South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (technology); India (leader of social democracy). According to Phillippe Braillard and Mohammad-Reza Djalili, this results from the existence of regional subsystems - a set of specific interactions based on general geographic affiliation; 6) the geopolitical "weight" of the South Asian sub-region grows because of the collapse of the North Korea's "nuclear blackmail" militaristic strategy, thanks to the successes of diplomacy of the US President Donald Trump; 7) paradoxically, but currently the political-economic competition between strategic partners - the USA and the European Union - is intensifying. At the same time, military-political tensions between the Russian Federation and the United States and NATO, as global rivals in various geopolitical aspects – war in Syria, sanctions against the Russian Federation because of the annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine – are growing; global migration; Iranian, Iraqi and Venezuelan issues, etc.Turbulent character and macro fluctuations of transitional international system of "misbalance and mutual equilibriums", additionally is determined by the competitive coexistence of states of stable and transitional democracy, autocratic states (that can be differentiated into traditional-conservative, military-totalitarian, authoritarian-modernized) and specific quasi-states. This combination of authoritarianism with liberal democracy is problematic, and leaves impact on the global politics – temporary restorations of the post-communist governments, lack of competent and responsible bureaucracy, corruption-related scandals in the international structures, ignoring of the demands of the global states in questions relating to survival of humankind. The most important factors in the destabilization of the world system are wars, international terrorism and global problems, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic.Conclusions. Contemporary international system is currently in a state of transitional from the unipolar world to the multipolar one, from the stability that prevailed after the collapse of the world socialist system to the qualitatively new international system with several fulcrums. But this process is very complex and prolonged; it will be constantly influenced by the new "geopolitical shifts", as factors contributing to global turbulence and macro fluctuations of the transitional international system: the final collapse of the colonial system; the destruction of the model of the "bipolar world" and the emergence of sovereign states that implement their own geostrategies on a world arena; problems of coexistence of countries in stable and transitional democracy, autocracies and specific quasi-states; strategic shift of the Baltic-Black Sea arc to the borders of Russia with the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia; the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system; increase in economic competition of strategic partners – the USA and the European Union; an increase in military-political tension between the Russian Federation and the US with NATO, and so on. ; В исследовательских кейсах статьи представлен научный дискурс по вопросам сущности, методологии анализа, типологий международных систем; концептуализированы новые понятия и «гибридные явления»; гипотезы и выводы авторов на почве синтеза системной и геополитической парадигм; проанализированы феномены международного терроризма, «гибридной» войны, пандемии коронавируса как важных факторов турбулентности современной международной системы. ; У дослідницьких кейсах статті представлено науковий дискурс щодо питань сутності, методології аналізу, типологій міжнародних систем; концептуалізовані нові поняття та «гібридні явища»; гіпотези і висновки авторів на ґрунті синтезу системної та геополітичної парадигм; проаналізовано феномени міжнародного тероризму, «гібридної» війни, пандемії коронавірусу як важливих чинників турбулентності сучасної міжнародної системи.

El golpe militar de 18 de julio de 1936 contra el legítimo gobierno del Frente Popular fracasó en una parte del territorio español. Este intento de golpe de Estado se convirtió en una guerra civil que duró 1.000 días. El conflicto terminó con la victoria de los militares rebeldes liderados por el General Franco, el 1 de abril de 1939. Franco institucionalizó una dictadura militar que suprimió las libertades públicas, las instituciones y el régimen democrático de la II República. La implantación del Nuevo Estado franquista trajo consigo la persecución de cientos de miles de españoles que, en su día, apoyaron a la II República. La provincia de Murcia formó parte de los últimos territorios ocupados por las tropas franquistas, a finales de marzo de 1939. El primero y principal objetivo de esta tesis es el estudio, análisis y evaluación de las consecuencias de la represión y la violencia política franquista, entre 1939 y 1948, para las víctimas murcianas en sus tres principales aspectos: − Penal: prisión o muerte para los disidentes políticos republicanos, dictadas por los tribunales militares, o llevadas a cabo por los rebeldes sin control judicial alguno. − Económico: Sanciones pecuniarias e incautación de propiedades mobiliarias e inmobiliarias derivadas del anterior y actual comportamiento político de los republicanos calificados como desafectos. − Político: Depuración de los funcionarios, servidores públicos y trabajadores desafectos que prestaban sus servicios en el aparato del Estado, los servicios públicos y las administraciones públicas. Esta tesis aborda también los problemas que tuvo el aparato represivo y judicial franquista para realizar la misión y los objetivos que le había sido encomendados. Y demuestra, cómo y por qué los responsables de la represión del Nuevo Estado tuvieron que regular, modificar y, al final, limitar su política y sus objetivos represivos en orden a adaptar su aparato judicial y penitenciario a su capacidad real y operativa de funcionamiento. No es que el Nuevo Estado franquista no quisiera castigar más, es que el sistema represivo que crearon no les permitió hacerlos. A partir de febrero de 1.943, la evolución de la IIGM a favor de los aliados y en especial la ocupación por las fuerzas aliadas del Norte de África, y la caída de Mussolini contribuyeron a cambiar sustancialmente la política exterior e interior del Régimen franquista. El enfoque del análisis y la metodología utilizados ha contribuido a demostrar estas hipótesis. En primer lugar, el estudio de la violencia política se ha realizado desde la primacía y la preponderancia de la jurisdicción militar, que constituía el eje fundamental del sistema represivo. Las jurisdicciones especiales: Responsabilidades Políticas; Tribunal de la masonería; Depuración del Estado y la sociedad; etc. cumplían un papel importante pero subordinado. En segundo lugar, el análisis de la violencia política se ha hecho como un todo, relacionado entre sí las múltiples variables de sus aspectos penal, económico y político. Todo ello, a partir de la construcción de una Base de Datos de la Represión Franquista de la provincia de Murcia, 1939-48, BDRF-MU/39-48, que ha permitido integrar, ordenar y correlacionar la información de distintas y numerosas fuentes y variables, correspondiente a más de 9.000 represaliados registrados, cuyos datos han sido distribuidos en 25 campos de análisis, que contienen en conjunto más de 91.000 inputs demográficos, profesionales, políticos y penales que sirven de soporte al análisis, estudio y conclusiones que se plantean a lo largo de la investigación. Esta tesis ha posibilitado que los vencidos de la guerra civil recuperen su protagonismo histórico. Así, las víctimas murcianas republicanas: 26.433 detenidos, 21.452 procesados, 18.192 condenados y 900 ejecutados por los tribunales militares. 6.628 expedientados por Responsabilidades Políticas; 4.200 exilados; y no menos de 2.500 servidores públicos depurados, etc. han entrada en la Historia de la actual Región de Murcia. Murcia, 12 de octubre de 2015 Abstract of the thesis The military coup of July 18th, 1936, against the legitimate Government of the Popular Front failed in a part of the Spanish territory. This attempted coup d'état became a civil war that lasted a thousand days. The conflict ended with the victory of the rebel military led by General Franco, on the 1st of April, 1939. Franco imposed a military dictatorship which suppressed civil rights, and the democratic system established by the Second Spanish Republic, on April, 1931. New Francoist State implemented the persecution of hundreds of thousands of Spaniards who formerly, supported the Second Spanish Republic. The province of Murcia was part of the last loyal republican territories occupied by Francoist troops, at the end of March 1939. First and foremost objective of this thesis is the study, analysis and evaluation of the consequences for Murcian victims of Francoist political violence and repression, between 1939 and 1948, in its three main aspects: − Criminal: Prison or death for republican political dissidents, sentenced by military tribunals, or murdered by rebels without any judicial control; − Economic: Pecuniary sanctions and confiscation of real estate properties because of former political behavior. − Politician: Purge of officials, public servants and workers disaffected to Francoist New State that provided its services in the apparatus of the State, public administrations and public services. This thesis also deals with the problems that the judicial and repressive system had to overcome in order to carry out the mission and goals that it had been entrusted. In this way, it shows how and why persons in charge of Francoist repression had to regulate, modify and finally limit its policy and its repressive objectives in order to adapt its judicial and penitentiary system to its available operative capacity. It is not that New Francoist State would not want to punish more, is that they materially could not. From February, 1.943, the evolution of World War II, in favour of the Allies, especially the occupation by the allied forces of North Africa, contributed to substantially change Franco´s foreign and interior policies. The focus of analysis and methodology used has contributed to prove these hypotheses. First of all, political violence's analysis has been made taking into account primacy of military jurisdiction, which was the cornerstone of the Francoist repressive system. Other special jurisdictions like: Politic Responsibilities; Court of Freemasonry; purge and social control of the society and State; etc. fulfilled an important but complementary and subordinate role. Secondly, relating the multiple variables of political violence through its economic, criminal and political aspects and analyzing them as a whole. The creation of a Data Base of the Francoist's repression at Murcia's province between 1939-48, called BDRF-MU/39-48, has allowed to integrate, sort and correlate the information from different and numerous sources and variables. These records correspond to more than 9.000 political disaffected, whose data have been distributed in 25 fields of analysis, containing altogether more than 91,000 political, professional and demographic data. This data base supports the analysis, study and conclusions that arisen during the investigation. This thesis has enabled Spanish Civil War´s defeat to recover its historical showing. So, Murcian republican victims: 26.433 persecuted; 21.452 processed; 18.192 condemned; 900 executed by military tribunals; 6.628 economically punished by responsibilities policies; 4,200 exiles; and not less than 2,500 public servants purged, etc. have now a place in the contemporary history of the current Region of Murcia. Murcia, October 12th, 2015

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제농업기술대학원 국제농업기술학과, 2020. 8. 서교. ; Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are considered key factors driving climate change, and electric vehicles (EVs) are proposed as a potential solutions. EVs represent eco-friendly modes of transportation that do not emit carbon dioxide and other GHGs into the atmosphere. In addition, the energy sources associated with EVs would reduce GHG emissions, which have steadily increased over the last several decades. The energy sector accounts for 93% of the total national GHG emissions among five sectors, including industrial processing, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, waste, and energy. Although all of these sectors contribute to GHG emissions. the energy sector is the major source of GHG emissions. Among the numerous sub-sectors under the energy sector, GHG emissions of the road transport sub-sector accounted for 95.9% of the total emissions in the transport sector, with 94,270 Gt CO2e in 2017. The Korean government proposed the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles to achieve the GHG reduction goals in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, which goes into effect in 2021. In addition, the government have proposed promoting eco-friendly vehicles as a strategy of achieving a 37% reduction of the 851 million ton CO2e GHG emissions forecast by 2030. The Korean government has proposed various policies to increase the adoption of EVs, as eco-friendly cars, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions. The government has set a goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, and has provided various incentives such as tax exemptions, purchase subsidies, highway tolls, and discounts on parking fees in public parking facilities to promote the purchases of eco-friendly cars in Korea. Despite these favorable government policies, the rate of EV adoption in Korea has fallen short of expectations. Compared to the goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, the number of EVs registered in Korea in 2019 was only approximately 8.8t thousand which was far below the high goal set by the government. In 2019, only 0.5% of all passenger vehicles in Korea were EVs. According to a survey to evaluate the perceptions of actual buyers of EVs in Korea and the willingness of prospective buyers to purchase EVs, in general, current owners reported that they would not repurchase EV. Prospective buyers reported that they would not purchase EVs for reasons such as reduced subsidies, long charging times, and the short driving range of EVs. In terms of charging, which is a key factor for EV owners, KEPCO's detailed plan for the electricity supply include significantly increasing charging fees for EVs starting in the second half of 2020. Consequently, the charging costs that purchasers of EVs need to pay will increase further and will negatively affect intention to purchase. However, following implementation of the government's policy of propagation of EVs and according to various studies, the EV adoption is still expected to increase, and improvements in power generation could lead to an increase in EV purchases. Although no pollutants are emitted while driving EVs, policies that promote an increase in EVs do not take into account the life cycles of EVs from pre-manufacturing to the disposal, and thus, they do not adequately predict the potential environmental impacts. In the life cycle of EVs, the production of the electricity required for the operation of EVs generates the highest amount of GHG emissions during the use stage. Thus, production of EVs still has a major impact on the environment. Since such environmental impacts depend on the energy mix, environmental impact assessments should consider the national energy mix. New environmental impact assessment activities are needed and such activities should consider changes in the energy mix and changes in the propagation of EVs. These activities would impact the outcomes in two categories, global warming potential and particulate matter potential, which are both linked to automobile use and energy production. As interest in EVs has increased, numerous studies on the propagation of EVs have been conducted. As a result, various factors that influence the spread of EVs have been identified. In the majority of the studies that have examined the factors influencing the spread of EVs, panel analysis has been conducted using annual data at the national level. Subsidies, which is a major factor influencing EV uptake in Korea, are divided into the national subsidy and regional subsidies. Therefore, regional characteristics should be taken into account and analyzed at the regional level since different regions (e.g., Jeju Island) have unique operational environments for EVs. In addition, few studies have examined the balance of subsidies or the change in the number of supportable EV residuals based on monthly data rather than annual data. Several studies have also focused on the propagation of EVs using system dynamics, but, most studies have been qualitative research rather than quantitative research. In addition, numerous studies have evaluated environmental effects by applying changes in the energy mix. However, few studies have considered both the propagation of EVs and their environmental impacts. Therefore, the present study evaluates the impact of subsidy policies on the propagation of EVs by region and environmental improvement effects. First, we investigated the factors influencing the propagation of EVs using monthly panel data by region. Changes in EV uptake were then analyzed by region based on identified factors. Lastly, to analyze the environmental implications of EV propagation, the environmental improvement impacts of EV propagation were analyzed considering the national grid power supply plan based on a life cycle assessment (LCA). Our analysis of EV propagation based on monthly time series data by region aimed to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing the spread of EVs in Korea. This study confirmed the stationarity of the factors considering the influence of seasonality in the monthly time series data based on regional characteristics. In addition, an EV propagation model was designed based on panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, using the Hausman test. Analysis of the factors influencing EV propagation in 16 cities and provinces in Korea using panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, revealed that the EV propagation models had explanatory powers of 48% and 50%, respectively. The factors classified in the five categories had different effects depending on the model, and the panel fixed effect using the Hausman test was more appropriate for describing the model. However, more variables in the panel random effect model were analyzed as significant factors than in the fixed effect model. The number of newly registered diesel vehicles and the total number of newly registered passenger vehicles in the vehicle category had negative and positive effects on EV propagation, respectively, in both the panel fixed effect model and the panel random effect model. However, in the random effect model, the prices of diesel and gasoline vehicles also influenced EV propagation. In the panel fixed effect model, only the national subsidy and regional subsidies showed positive effects on the propagation of EVs. The random effect model also showed that a tax exemption, which had a positive effect on the spread of EVs, was also a factor influencing EV propagation. The population density in the census category, the number of vehicles per capita, and the PM10 concentration, representing environmental factors, were analyzed as influential factors in both models. In addition, the monthly average and minimum temperatures in the climate category, which could reveal whether weather conditions in each region influence EV spread, were found to be influential in the panel fixed effect model. However, in the panel random effect model, all factors in the climate category were not influential. The system dynamics model of EV propagation was based on factors influencing the spread of EVs. The present study used the Stella Architect software platform to analyze dynamic changes in the spread of EVs by region. system dynamics is a technique that identifies dynamic change mechanisms of targets, and shows systemic trends with a non-linear feedback system and simulates and analyzes them based on various factors. In the present study, we used system dynamics to estimate the number of EVs propagated by region. A bull's eye diagram, causal loop diagram, and stock-flow diagram were constructed, and factors such as subsidies, charging facilities, fuel prices, electricity prices, and the number of vehicles by fuel applied. The system dynamics modeling was conducted based on correlations between variables. The system dynamics model of EV propagation by region was applied using the number of new EVs registered as the dependent variable to reveal differences based on regional characteristics. The subsidy variables were divided into national and regional variables, and the number of newly registered EVs was set as the dependent variable and multiple regression analysis was conducted. In addition, four policy scenarios – Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, and Phase-in 350% – were adopted to verify whether the 2030 EV goal set by the government could be achieved. According to the analysis, 1.37 million EVs would be adopted in 2030 under the Subsidy Cliff scenario, 1.40 million under the Phase-out scenario, 1.87 million under the Phase-in 50% scenario, and 3.01 million under the Phase-in 350% scenario. The results from these scenarios show that three scenarios, excluding the Phase-in 350% scenario, in which subsidies would increase to 350% by 2030, would require an additional 1.63 million, 1.60 million, and 1.13 million EVs, respectively, to achieve the national EV propagation goal. Under the four scenarios, the regions where the largest number of EVs would be adopted by 2030 were Jeju, Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daegu. However, the result of the analysis of the spread of EVs compared to the number of residents were contrary to the results of the analysis of the number of EVs based on region. Jeju, Ulsan, Gangwon, and Jeonnam would have the largest number of EVs per capita by 2030. Except for Jeju, the three other regions did not have many EVs compared to the total number of EVs, but the regions would have many EVs compared to the relatively low populations (i.e., EV per capita). Ulsan was projected to have the lowest number of EVs in Korea. However, considering the population, Ulsan would have the largest number of EVs per capita, except for Jeju, which is considered an effect similar to that observed in Ulsan, where an automobile factory is located. The results illustrate the potential propagation of EVs in regions where EVs are produced or where factories are located. The life cycle assessment (LCA) used to analyze the environmental impacts of EV propagation was based on the national power supply plan. LCA is an analysis method that quantifies the environmental impact of products or services. Prior to analyzing the propagation of EVs, the LCA of electricity production of EVs was evaluated at the goal and scope stages, and 1kWh of electricity production was set as a functional unit for the LCA. In addition, the inventory of pollutants generated during electricity production was analyzed. With regard to the environmental impact of the number of EVs propagated, the annual mileage provided by the KOSIS was applied based on an 11-year vehicle lifespan of EVs. In addition, the 8th Power Supply and Demand Plan and the additional energy transition option of coal-fired power generation to renewable energy were applied for comparative analyses. The 8th Plan was calculated based on the rated capacity presented as an environmental option, and the application of the energy transition to renewable energy. The GHG emissions of EVs were 81.7g CO2e/VKT under the 8th Plan option, and 37.2g CO2e/VKT for the energy transition option to renewable energy. The energy transition option, showed the lowest GHG emissions, with emissions that were 3.1 times lower than emission of the actual energy mix in 2016, and 4.57-fold and 4.25-fold lower compared to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, respectively. In addition, considering the recent rise in particulate matter-related issues, the environmental impact of particulate matter emissions from vehicles was analyzed. EVs. EVs emitted 20.7 mg PMe/VKT per 1km of driving. When the energy transition plan option was applied, PM emissions were less than those emitted by internal combustion engine vehicles. In the present study, monthly regional panel data were used to analyze factors influencing the propagation of EVs. However, panel analysis was conducted using monthly data rather than annual data. However, there were data acquisition limits that varied across regions. In particular, major factors such as the charging facilities and charging price, which affect the spread of EVs, were not included. Future studies and models should include monthly data on charging facilities for each region. In addition, in the present study, the PM10 variable was applied in the analyses, but if the monthly particulates on bad days were applied as mentioned in a previous study, more accurate results could be obtained for the environmental aspect. The second part of the three analyses conducted in the study using system dynamics was analyzed under four scenarios. The scenario that increases the current budget by 35% per year to achieve a 350% increase by 2030 could help meet the national EV propagation goal. However, given that Korea has implemented a policy of suspending EV subsidies as of 2023, it will be challenging to maintain the current budget for 35% subsidies per year for 10 years. Therefore, it is necessary to collect fees such as an environmental pollution tax from internal combustion engine vehicles to return the subsidies or give rebates for eco-friendly car such as EVs. In the future, more reliable research will promote the spread of EVs. The effects of feebate programs could also be considered. ; 기후변화와 관련하여 온실가스는 주요한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 인식되며, 꾸준히 증가하는 온실가스를 감축하고자 에너지 부문 중 수송부문에서도 탄소를 배출하지 않는 친환경 자동차로서 전기차는 해결책으로 제시되고 있다. 에너지 부문은 다섯 개 부문인 산업공정, 농업, 토지이용 변화 및 임업, 폐기물, 에너지 부문 중 국내 총 온실가스 배출량의 93%를 차지하여 온실가스 배출에 있어 크게 기여하고 있으며, 이로 인해 에너지 부문은 주요 온실가스 배출원으로 지목되었다. 그중 도로수송부문의 온실가스 배출량은 2017년 94,270 Gg ton CO2e로 전체 수송부문의 95.9%를 차지하며, 2021년부터 효력이 발생하는 파리기후협약에 따라 온실가스 감축 목표를 달성하고자 2030년 온실가스 배출전망량 851백만 ton CO2e 대비 37% 감축 달성을 위한 방안으로 친환경 자동차 보급을 제시하였다. 우리나라 정부는 온실가스 감축을 목표로 친환경 자동차 중 전기차 보급확대를 위해 다양한 정책을 제시하였다. 정부는 2030년 전기차 보급목표 대수를 3백만 대로 설정하며, 국내 친환경 자동차 보급확대를 위해 세제감면과 구매보조금 지급, 고속도로통행료, 공영주차장 주차비 할인 등의 다양한 혜택을 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정부의 다양한 정책적 노력에도 불구하고 국내 전기차 보급속도는 기대에 못 미치고 있다. 정부는 2030년까지 배출되는 온실가스를 감축하기 위해 수송부문의 경우 2030 전기차 보급목표를 300만 대로 설정하였지만, 우리나라의 2019년 전기차 등록 대수는 약 8.8만 대에 불과하며 정부가 설정한 높은 목표 대수에 한참 못 미치는 수준이다. 이는 국내 전체 승용차의 0.5% 수준이다. 우리나라 전기차 실구매자의 재구매 의사와 예비구매자의 전기차 구매 의사와 관련하여 진행된 설문조사에 따르면, 보조금 축소와 긴 충전시간, 짧은 항속거리 등과 같은 이유로 전기차 재구매 혹은 구매를 하지 않겠다는 의견을 제시하였다. 주행을 위해 꼭 필요한 요소인 충전과 관련한 사항은 민감한 사항이지만 한국전력의 전기공급 시행세칙 변경안에 따르면, 2020년 하반기부터 전기차 충전료가 대폭 인상추진 중이다. 이로 인해 전기차 실구매자가 부담해야 하는 충전비용은 더욱 늘어나며 구매의향에 영향을 미칠 것으로 조사되었다. 전기차 보급을 위한 정부의 정책 시행과 다양한 연구가 진행되는 흐름 속에서 전기차의 보급이 증가할 것으로 전망됨에 따라 전기차의 연료인 발전의 변화도 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 전기차는 주행 중에 배출되는 오염물질이 없다는 점에서 환경성이 부각되며 장려되고 있지만, 전기차의 제조 전 단계부터 폐기단계까지의 생애주기를 고려한 환경영향은 포함되지 않은 채 전기자동차는 장려되고 있다. 전기차의 생애주기 중 전기차 운행을 위한 전력 생산단계는 생애주기 중 사용단계에서 가장 많은 탄소량이 배출되며 이로 인해 전력생산은 전기차의 환경영향에 주요한 영향을 미친다. 전원믹스 구성에 따라 환경영향이 달라지기 때문에 국가 전원믹스를 고려한 환경영향평가가 이루어져야 한다. 자동차 보급과 에너지 생산과 관련된 중요한 두 카테고리인 온실가스와 미세먼지에서 상반된 결과를 보이기에 전원믹스구성의 변화와 전기차 보급 변화에 따른 환경영향평가가 필요하다. 전기차를 향한 관심의 증가하며 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 수행되며, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 다양한 인자들을 제시하였다. 그중 충전시설, 인구밀도, 유가, 온도, 전력가격, 보조금, 1인당 보유차량 대수 등이 전기차 보급의 주요 인자로 알려져 있다. 전기차 보급의 영향인자를 연구한 대다수의 연구에서 국가 단위의 연간자료를 사용하여 패널 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 우리나라는 주요 영향인자 중 보조금이 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금으로 나뉘어 지급되고 있기에 지역적 특성이 고려되어야 하며, 제주도와 같은 전기차에 특수성을 띄고 있는 지역이 있기에 지자체 레벨에서 분석이 되어야 한다. 이와 더불어, 연간자료가 아닌 월간 자료 사용에 따라 보조금의 잔액 혹은 잔여 대수 변화를 적용한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 있었지만, 정량적인 연구보다는 정성적인 연구에 초점을 둔 연구들이 대부분이었다. 또한, 전기차 전원믹스 구성 변화를 적용하여 환경영향을 평가한 연구들은 많았지만, 전기차 보급량과 환경영향을 모두 고려한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역별 전기차 보급에 대한 보조금 정책의 영향과 환경개선효과에 대해서 평가하였다. 먼저, 지역별 월간 패널자료를 이용하여 전기차의 보급 활성화에 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였으며, 분석된 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 보조금 정책에 따른 지역별 전기차 보급량 변화를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 전기차 보급에 따른 환경성 분석을 위해 전과정평가를 이용하여 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경개선효과를 보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 첫 번째 전기차 보급 분석을 통해 지역별 월별 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 우리나라의 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 요인을 정량적인 분석을 하고자 하였다. 먼저 지역적 특성을 고려한 월 단위의 시계열 자료에서 나타나는 계절성 등에 대한 영향을 고려하기 위해 인자의 정상성을 확인하였다. 또한, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형에 대한 전기차 보급 모형을 설계하였다. 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형으로 국내 17개 시·도를 대상으로 전기차 보급 영향인자를 분석한 결과, 각각 48%와 50%의 설명력을 갖는 전기차 보급 모형을 확인하였다. 5개의 카테고리인 차량관련과 정책, 인구조사, 기후, 환경에 분류된 인자들은 모형에 따라 각기 다른 영향을 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과가 모형을 설명하기에 더욱 적절한 것으로 분석되었으나, 고정효과 모형보다 패널확률효과모형에서 더 많은 변수가 통계적으로 유의한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 차량 관련 카테고리의 신규등록 디젤차량 대수와 전체 신규등록 차량 대수는 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형 모두에서 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 확률효과모형의 경우, 디젤의 가격과 가솔린의 가격 또한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 패널고정효과모형에서는 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금만이 영향인자로 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었으나 확률효과모형은 전기차 보급에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 세금감면도 영향인자로 나타났다. 인구조사 카테고리의 인구밀도와 1인당 차량보유대수, 환경적 요인을 대변하는 미세먼지지수는 두 모형 모두에서 영향인자로 분석되었다. 각 지역의 기상조건이 전기차 보급 활성에 영향을 미치는지를 볼 수 있는 기상카테고리의 인자 중 월평균 온도와 월최저온도가 패널고정효과모형에서 영향력이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 패널확률효과모형에서는 기상카테고리의 모든 인자가 영향인자가 아닌 것으로 분석되었다. 앞서 분석된 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용하여 지역별 전기차 보급의 동태적 변화를 보기 위해 Stella 플랫폼을 이용하였다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 시스템적 거동을 보이는 대상의 역동적인 변화메커니즘을 비선형적인 피드백 시스템으로 파악하고, 이를 다양한 요인을 고려하여 시뮬레이션하여 분석하는 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 지역별 전기차 보급대수 추정을 위해 Bull's eye diagram과 causal loop diagram, stock-flow diagram을 구축하고 보조금, 충전시설, 유가, 전력가격, 연료별 차량 대수 변수로 적용하였다. 이러한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링을 통해 변수 간의 상관관계를 수식화하였다. 지역별 전기차 보급의 시스템 다이내믹스 모델은 지역별 특성에 따른 차이를 보고자 보조금 변수를 제외한 모든 변수는 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 pooled OLS 회귀분석을 하여 수식을 적용하였으며, 보조금 변수는 지역별로 구분하여 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 설정하고 다중회귀분석을 진행하였다. 이와 더불어 네 가지 정책시나리오-Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, Phase-in 350%-를 구축하여 우리나라 2030년 전기차 보급목표인 3백만 대 달성 가능 여부를 확인하였다. 이러한 분석을 통한 결과에 따르면, 2030년 국내 전기차는 Subsidy Cliff 시나리오일 경우 1.37 백만 대와 Phase-out일 경우 1.40 백만 대, Phase-in 50%일 경우, 1.87 백만 대, Phase-in 350%일 경우 3.01 백만 대가 보급될 것으로 분석되었다. 해당 시나리오의 결과를 보면, 보조금이 2030년 350%까지 인상되는 Phase-in 350% 시나리오를 제외한 세 가지 시나리오인 Subsidy Cliff와 Phase-out, Phase-in 50%가 국가 전기차 보급목표에 각각 1.63백만 대, 1.60 백만 대, 1.13 백만 대의 전기차가 추가적으로 보급되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 구축된 네 가지 시나리오를 지역별 전기차 보급 대수로 보면, 2019년 가장 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역은 제주, 서울 경기 대구 순이었으며, 2030년은 제주 경기 서울 대구 순으로 분석되었다. 시간이 지나며 2019년 대비 많은 전기차가 보급되었음에도 전기차 보급이 활성화된 지역은 순서의 차이는 있었으나 동일하였다. 하지만 전기차 보급을 거주 인구수와 대비하여 분석한 결과, 지역별 전체 전기차 보급 대수를 분석한 결과와 상반된 결과가 산출되었다. 2030년에 가장 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 나온 지역은 제주, 울산, 강원, 전남 순이었다. 제주를 제외한 세 지역은 전체 보급대수로 보았을 때는 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역이 아니었지만 적은 인구수 대비 많은 전기차가 보급된 것으로 나타났다. 울산의 경우, 전체 전기차 대수를 보면 16개 시도에서 가장 적은 전기차가 보급되는 것으로 분석되었지만 인구대비로 보았을 경우는 특수케이스인 제주를 제외한 제일 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 보급된 곳으로 분석되었다. 이는 자동차 공장이 있는 울산이 기존연구에서 전기차의 생산지나 공장이 있는 지역의 전기차 보급이 높게 나타난 것과 같은 생산지 효과로 사료된다. 본 연구의 세 번째 전기차 보급 분석인 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경영향을 보기 위해 사용된 전과정평가는 제품이나 서비스의 환경영향를 정량화하는 분석 방법이다. 전기차 보급에 따른 분석을 하기에 앞서 목적 및 범위설정 단계에서 전기차의 연료생산 시의 전과정평가를 실시하였으며, 전과정평가시 1kWh의 전력 생산 시를 기능단위로 설정하였다. 이와 더불어 전력생산 시에 발생하는 오염물질의 인벤토리를 분석하였으며, 본 연구에서는 전기차의 보급에 따른 환경영향을 분석하기 위해 차량의 수명인 11년과 통계청에서 제공하는 연간 주행거리, 두 번째 분석에서 산출된 정책별 전기차 보급 대수를 적용하여 보급 대수에 따른 환경영향을 분석하였다. 또한, 제8차 전력수급계획 옵션과 석탄화력발전의 신재생에너지로의 추가적 전환 옵션을 적용하여 비교 분석하였다. 환경 옵션으로 제시된 정격용량을 기준으로 산출한 제8차 계획과 신재생에너지로의 전환을 적용하여 전기차의 온실가스와 미세먼지 배출량을 보면, 온실가스는 8차 계획 옵션 시 81.7g CO2e/VKT가 배출되며, 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션 시, 37.2g CO2e/VKT의 온실가스가 배출되는 것으로 나타났다. 온실가스 배출량이 가장 낮게 나온 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션은 2016년의 실질 전원구성과 3.1배 차이가 나며, 내연기관차인 휘발유차와 경유차와는 각각 4.57배와 4.25배 차이가 나는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 최근 미세먼지 관련 이슈가 크게 대두됨에 따라 차량에서 배출되는 미세먼지 배출량의 환경영향을 분석해보았다. 휘발유와 경유, 전기차 중 가장 많은 미세먼지 배출량을 보였던 전기차는 8차수급계획 옵션을 적용 시 1km 주행 시 20.7mg PMe를 에너지 전환 옵션을 적용 시 9.4mg PMe/VKT를 배출하는 것으로 산출되어 12.4mg PMe/VKT의 배출량을 보인 내연기관차(휘발유) 보다 1.32배 적을 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자분석을 위해 월간 지역패널자료를 이용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 일반적인 연간자료를 이용한 패널분석이 아닌 월간 자료를 이용한 패널 분석을 하며 지역별 자료 구득에 있어 한계가 존재하였다. 특히, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 충전시설이나 충전전력요금과 같은 주요 영향인자가 포함되지 않았다는 점에서 향후, 지역별 충전시설의 월간 자료의 구축이 요구된다고 판단된다. 이와 더불어 본 연구에서는 미세먼지 변수를 농도로 적용하여 분석을 진행하였지만 향후, 기존의 연구에서 언급된 바와 같이 월별 미세먼지 나쁨 일수를 적용할 경우, 환경성 부분에서보다 더 정확한 결과 도출이 가능할 것이라 사료된다. 본 연구에서 진행한 세 가지의 분석 중 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 두 번째 파트의 분석은 다양한 시나리오 중 현재 예산을 매해 35% 증액하여 2030년 350% 인상에 도달하는 시나리오가 적합한 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만, 2023년을 기점으로 전기차 보조금 지급을 중단하는 정책을 시행하고 있는 우리나라의 입장에서는 현재 전기차 보조금을 위한 예산을 매년 35%씩 10년 동안 지속하는 것에는 어려움이 있기에 내연기관차로부터의 환경오염세와 같은 fee를 징수하여 친환경차인 전기차의 보조금을 rebate하는 피베이트 제도 (Feebate)를 해야 할 필요가 있다고 사료된다. 향후, feebate와 전기차 보급을 연계하여 연구가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. ; Chapter Ⅰ. Introduction 1 1. Background 1 2. Research Objectives 8 Chapter Ⅱ. Literature Review 9 1. Determinant of EV Propagation 9 2. System Dynamics Modeling 15 3. Environmental Impacts of EV Propagation 17 Chapter Ⅲ. Data and Methods 19 1. Panel Analysis for Deriving Affecting Factors of EV Propagation 19 1.1. Scope of Study 19 1.2. EV Trends in Korea 20 1.3. Categories of Affecting Factors 24 1.3.1. Vehicle Sector 28 1.3.2. Policy Sector 31 1.3.3. Demographic Sector 35 1.3.4. Climate Sector 38 1.3.5. Environment Sector 39 1.4. Stationary Testing 43 1.5. Panel Analysis Model 46 1.5.1. Pooled Ordinary Least Square 46 1.5.2. Fixed Effect Model 48 1.5.3. Random Effect Model 50 2. System Dynamics on EV Propagation 51 2.1. Scope of Study 51 2.2. Data for Dynamic Analysis 52 2.2.1. Propagation and Activation Policy on EVs 52 2.2.2. Model Parameters of System Dynamics Analysis 56 2.3. System Dynamics 62 2.3.1. Introduction to System Dynamics 62 2.3.2. Characteristics of System Dynamics 64 2.3.3. Steps of Modeling System Dynamics 68 2.4. Policy Scenarios for EV Propagation 70 3. Life Cycle Assessment of EV Propagation 72 3.1. National Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand 72 3.2. Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.1. Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.2. Goal and Scope Definition 76 3.2.3. Life Cycle Inventory Analysis 79 3.2.4. Life Cycle Impact Analysis 80 3.3. Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options 82 Chapter Ⅳ. Results and Discussion 84 1. Key Drivers of EV Propagation 84 1.1. Descriptive Statistics of Factors 84 1.2. Identification of Stationarity of Factors 88 1.3. Result of Goodness of Fit Test 89 1.4. Panel Fixed Effect of EV Propagation 90 1.5. Panel Random Effect of EV Propagation 98 2. System Dynamics Modeling for EV Propagation 103 2.1. Bull's Eye Diagram of EV Propagation Model 103 2.2. Causal Loop Diagram of EV Propagation 105 2.3. Stock-Flow Diagram of EV Propagation 108 2.4. Propagation Results of EV considering Policies 115 2.4.1. Subsidy Cliff Scenario 115 2.4.2. Phase-out Subsidy Scenario 118 2.4.3. Phase-in Subsidy Scenarios 121 2.4.4. Regional EV Projection per Thousand in 2030 127 2.4.5. Policy Implications of EV Projection considering Policy Scenarios 132 3. Environmental Implications of EV Propagation 134 3.1. Environmental Performance of EVs Compared to ICEVs 134 3.2. Environmental Implications of Combination of Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options for EV Propagation 138 3.2.1. Emissions Considering Environmental Options and Policy Scenarios 138 3.2.2. Total Emissions from ICEV and EV Considering Energy Transition Option and Policy Scenario 142 Chapter Ⅴ. Conclusion 147 References 152 Abstract in Korean 172 ; Master

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제농업기술대학원 국제농업기술학과, 2020. 8. 서교. ; Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are considered key factors driving climate change, and electric vehicles (EVs) are proposed as a potential solutions. EVs represent eco-friendly modes of transportation that do not emit carbon dioxide and other GHGs into the atmosphere. In addition, the energy sources associated with EVs would reduce GHG emissions, which have steadily increased over the last several decades. The energy sector accounts for 93% of the total national GHG emissions among five sectors, including industrial processing, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, waste, and energy. Although all of these sectors contribute to GHG emissions. the energy sector is the major source of GHG emissions. Among the numerous sub-sectors under the energy sector, GHG emissions of the road transport sub-sector accounted for 95.9% of the total emissions in the transport sector, with 94,270 Gt CO2e in 2017. The Korean government proposed the adoption of eco-friendly vehicles to achieve the GHG reduction goals in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, which goes into effect in 2021. In addition, the government have proposed promoting eco-friendly vehicles as a strategy of achieving a 37% reduction of the 851 million ton CO2e GHG emissions forecast by 2030. The Korean government has proposed various policies to increase the adoption of EVs, as eco-friendly cars, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions. The government has set a goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, and has provided various incentives such as tax exemptions, purchase subsidies, highway tolls, and discounts on parking fees in public parking facilities to promote the purchases of eco-friendly cars in Korea. Despite these favorable government policies, the rate of EV adoption in Korea has fallen short of expectations. Compared to the goal of 3 million EVs by 2030, the number of EVs registered in Korea in 2019 was only approximately 8.8t thousand which was far below the high goal set by the government. In 2019, only 0.5% of all passenger vehicles in Korea were EVs. According to a survey to evaluate the perceptions of actual buyers of EVs in Korea and the willingness of prospective buyers to purchase EVs, in general, current owners reported that they would not repurchase EV. Prospective buyers reported that they would not purchase EVs for reasons such as reduced subsidies, long charging times, and the short driving range of EVs. In terms of charging, which is a key factor for EV owners, KEPCO's detailed plan for the electricity supply include significantly increasing charging fees for EVs starting in the second half of 2020. Consequently, the charging costs that purchasers of EVs need to pay will increase further and will negatively affect intention to purchase. However, following implementation of the government's policy of propagation of EVs and according to various studies, the EV adoption is still expected to increase, and improvements in power generation could lead to an increase in EV purchases. Although no pollutants are emitted while driving EVs, policies that promote an increase in EVs do not take into account the life cycles of EVs from pre-manufacturing to the disposal, and thus, they do not adequately predict the potential environmental impacts. In the life cycle of EVs, the production of the electricity required for the operation of EVs generates the highest amount of GHG emissions during the use stage. Thus, production of EVs still has a major impact on the environment. Since such environmental impacts depend on the energy mix, environmental impact assessments should consider the national energy mix. New environmental impact assessment activities are needed and such activities should consider changes in the energy mix and changes in the propagation of EVs. These activities would impact the outcomes in two categories, global warming potential and particulate matter potential, which are both linked to automobile use and energy production. As interest in EVs has increased, numerous studies on the propagation of EVs have been conducted. As a result, various factors that influence the spread of EVs have been identified. In the majority of the studies that have examined the factors influencing the spread of EVs, panel analysis has been conducted using annual data at the national level. Subsidies, which is a major factor influencing EV uptake in Korea, are divided into the national subsidy and regional subsidies. Therefore, regional characteristics should be taken into account and analyzed at the regional level since different regions (e.g., Jeju Island) have unique operational environments for EVs. In addition, few studies have examined the balance of subsidies or the change in the number of supportable EV residuals based on monthly data rather than annual data. Several studies have also focused on the propagation of EVs using system dynamics, but, most studies have been qualitative research rather than quantitative research. In addition, numerous studies have evaluated environmental effects by applying changes in the energy mix. However, few studies have considered both the propagation of EVs and their environmental impacts. Therefore, the present study evaluates the impact of subsidy policies on the propagation of EVs by region and environmental improvement effects. First, we investigated the factors influencing the propagation of EVs using monthly panel data by region. Changes in EV uptake were then analyzed by region based on identified factors. Lastly, to analyze the environmental implications of EV propagation, the environmental improvement impacts of EV propagation were analyzed considering the national grid power supply plan based on a life cycle assessment (LCA). Our analysis of EV propagation based on monthly time series data by region aimed to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing the spread of EVs in Korea. This study confirmed the stationarity of the factors considering the influence of seasonality in the monthly time series data based on regional characteristics. In addition, an EV propagation model was designed based on panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, using the Hausman test. Analysis of the factors influencing EV propagation in 16 cities and provinces in Korea using panel fixed effect and panel random effect models, revealed that the EV propagation models had explanatory powers of 48% and 50%, respectively. The factors classified in the five categories had different effects depending on the model, and the panel fixed effect using the Hausman test was more appropriate for describing the model. However, more variables in the panel random effect model were analyzed as significant factors than in the fixed effect model. The number of newly registered diesel vehicles and the total number of newly registered passenger vehicles in the vehicle category had negative and positive effects on EV propagation, respectively, in both the panel fixed effect model and the panel random effect model. However, in the random effect model, the prices of diesel and gasoline vehicles also influenced EV propagation. In the panel fixed effect model, only the national subsidy and regional subsidies showed positive effects on the propagation of EVs. The random effect model also showed that a tax exemption, which had a positive effect on the spread of EVs, was also a factor influencing EV propagation. The population density in the census category, the number of vehicles per capita, and the PM10 concentration, representing environmental factors, were analyzed as influential factors in both models. In addition, the monthly average and minimum temperatures in the climate category, which could reveal whether weather conditions in each region influence EV spread, were found to be influential in the panel fixed effect model. However, in the panel random effect model, all factors in the climate category were not influential. The system dynamics model of EV propagation was based on factors influencing the spread of EVs. The present study used the Stella Architect software platform to analyze dynamic changes in the spread of EVs by region. system dynamics is a technique that identifies dynamic change mechanisms of targets, and shows systemic trends with a non-linear feedback system and simulates and analyzes them based on various factors. In the present study, we used system dynamics to estimate the number of EVs propagated by region. A bull's eye diagram, causal loop diagram, and stock-flow diagram were constructed, and factors such as subsidies, charging facilities, fuel prices, electricity prices, and the number of vehicles by fuel applied. The system dynamics modeling was conducted based on correlations between variables. The system dynamics model of EV propagation by region was applied using the number of new EVs registered as the dependent variable to reveal differences based on regional characteristics. The subsidy variables were divided into national and regional variables, and the number of newly registered EVs was set as the dependent variable and multiple regression analysis was conducted. In addition, four policy scenarios – Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, and Phase-in 350% – were adopted to verify whether the 2030 EV goal set by the government could be achieved. According to the analysis, 1.37 million EVs would be adopted in 2030 under the Subsidy Cliff scenario, 1.40 million under the Phase-out scenario, 1.87 million under the Phase-in 50% scenario, and 3.01 million under the Phase-in 350% scenario. The results from these scenarios show that three scenarios, excluding the Phase-in 350% scenario, in which subsidies would increase to 350% by 2030, would require an additional 1.63 million, 1.60 million, and 1.13 million EVs, respectively, to achieve the national EV propagation goal. Under the four scenarios, the regions where the largest number of EVs would be adopted by 2030 were Jeju, Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daegu. However, the result of the analysis of the spread of EVs compared to the number of residents were contrary to the results of the analysis of the number of EVs based on region. Jeju, Ulsan, Gangwon, and Jeonnam would have the largest number of EVs per capita by 2030. Except for Jeju, the three other regions did not have many EVs compared to the total number of EVs, but the regions would have many EVs compared to the relatively low populations (i.e., EV per capita). Ulsan was projected to have the lowest number of EVs in Korea. However, considering the population, Ulsan would have the largest number of EVs per capita, except for Jeju, which is considered an effect similar to that observed in Ulsan, where an automobile factory is located. The results illustrate the potential propagation of EVs in regions where EVs are produced or where factories are located. The life cycle assessment (LCA) used to analyze the environmental impacts of EV propagation was based on the national power supply plan. LCA is an analysis method that quantifies the environmental impact of products or services. Prior to analyzing the propagation of EVs, the LCA of electricity production of EVs was evaluated at the goal and scope stages, and 1kWh of electricity production was set as a functional unit for the LCA. In addition, the inventory of pollutants generated during electricity production was analyzed. With regard to the environmental impact of the number of EVs propagated, the annual mileage provided by the KOSIS was applied based on an 11-year vehicle lifespan of EVs. In addition, the 8th Power Supply and Demand Plan and the additional energy transition option of coal-fired power generation to renewable energy were applied for comparative analyses. The 8th Plan was calculated based on the rated capacity presented as an environmental option, and the application of the energy transition to renewable energy. The GHG emissions of EVs were 81.7g CO2e/VKT under the 8th Plan option, and 37.2g CO2e/VKT for the energy transition option to renewable energy. The energy transition option, showed the lowest GHG emissions, with emissions that were 3.1 times lower than emission of the actual energy mix in 2016, and 4.57-fold and 4.25-fold lower compared to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, respectively. In addition, considering the recent rise in particulate matter-related issues, the environmental impact of particulate matter emissions from vehicles was analyzed. EVs. EVs emitted 20.7 mg PMe/VKT per 1km of driving. When the energy transition plan option was applied, PM emissions were less than those emitted by internal combustion engine vehicles. In the present study, monthly regional panel data were used to analyze factors influencing the propagation of EVs. However, panel analysis was conducted using monthly data rather than annual data. However, there were data acquisition limits that varied across regions. In particular, major factors such as the charging facilities and charging price, which affect the spread of EVs, were not included. Future studies and models should include monthly data on charging facilities for each region. In addition, in the present study, the PM10 variable was applied in the analyses, but if the monthly particulates on bad days were applied as mentioned in a previous study, more accurate results could be obtained for the environmental aspect. The second part of the three analyses conducted in the study using system dynamics was analyzed under four scenarios. The scenario that increases the current budget by 35% per year to achieve a 350% increase by 2030 could help meet the national EV propagation goal. However, given that Korea has implemented a policy of suspending EV subsidies as of 2023, it will be challenging to maintain the current budget for 35% subsidies per year for 10 years. Therefore, it is necessary to collect fees such as an environmental pollution tax from internal combustion engine vehicles to return the subsidies or give rebates for eco-friendly car such as EVs. In the future, more reliable research will promote the spread of EVs. The effects of feebate programs could also be considered. ; 기후변화와 관련하여 온실가스는 주요한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 인식되며, 꾸준히 증가하는 온실가스를 감축하고자 에너지 부문 중 수송부문에서도 탄소를 배출하지 않는 친환경 자동차로서 전기차는 해결책으로 제시되고 있다. 에너지 부문은 다섯 개 부문인 산업공정, 농업, 토지이용 변화 및 임업, 폐기물, 에너지 부문 중 국내 총 온실가스 배출량의 93%를 차지하여 온실가스 배출에 있어 크게 기여하고 있으며, 이로 인해 에너지 부문은 주요 온실가스 배출원으로 지목되었다. 그중 도로수송부문의 온실가스 배출량은 2017년 94,270 Gg ton CO2e로 전체 수송부문의 95.9%를 차지하며, 2021년부터 효력이 발생하는 파리기후협약에 따라 온실가스 감축 목표를 달성하고자 2030년 온실가스 배출전망량 851백만 ton CO2e 대비 37% 감축 달성을 위한 방안으로 친환경 자동차 보급을 제시하였다. 우리나라 정부는 온실가스 감축을 목표로 친환경 자동차 중 전기차 보급확대를 위해 다양한 정책을 제시하였다. 정부는 2030년 전기차 보급목표 대수를 3백만 대로 설정하며, 국내 친환경 자동차 보급확대를 위해 세제감면과 구매보조금 지급, 고속도로통행료, 공영주차장 주차비 할인 등의 다양한 혜택을 제공하고 있다. 하지만 이러한 정부의 다양한 정책적 노력에도 불구하고 국내 전기차 보급속도는 기대에 못 미치고 있다. 정부는 2030년까지 배출되는 온실가스를 감축하기 위해 수송부문의 경우 2030 전기차 보급목표를 300만 대로 설정하였지만, 우리나라의 2019년 전기차 등록 대수는 약 8.8만 대에 불과하며 정부가 설정한 높은 목표 대수에 한참 못 미치는 수준이다. 이는 국내 전체 승용차의 0.5% 수준이다. 우리나라 전기차 실구매자의 재구매 의사와 예비구매자의 전기차 구매 의사와 관련하여 진행된 설문조사에 따르면, 보조금 축소와 긴 충전시간, 짧은 항속거리 등과 같은 이유로 전기차 재구매 혹은 구매를 하지 않겠다는 의견을 제시하였다. 주행을 위해 꼭 필요한 요소인 충전과 관련한 사항은 민감한 사항이지만 한국전력의 전기공급 시행세칙 변경안에 따르면, 2020년 하반기부터 전기차 충전료가 대폭 인상추진 중이다. 이로 인해 전기차 실구매자가 부담해야 하는 충전비용은 더욱 늘어나며 구매의향에 영향을 미칠 것으로 조사되었다. 전기차 보급을 위한 정부의 정책 시행과 다양한 연구가 진행되는 흐름 속에서 전기차의 보급이 증가할 것으로 전망됨에 따라 전기차의 연료인 발전의 변화도 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 전기차는 주행 중에 배출되는 오염물질이 없다는 점에서 환경성이 부각되며 장려되고 있지만, 전기차의 제조 전 단계부터 폐기단계까지의 생애주기를 고려한 환경영향은 포함되지 않은 채 전기자동차는 장려되고 있다. 전기차의 생애주기 중 전기차 운행을 위한 전력 생산단계는 생애주기 중 사용단계에서 가장 많은 탄소량이 배출되며 이로 인해 전력생산은 전기차의 환경영향에 주요한 영향을 미친다. 전원믹스 구성에 따라 환경영향이 달라지기 때문에 국가 전원믹스를 고려한 환경영향평가가 이루어져야 한다. 자동차 보급과 에너지 생산과 관련된 중요한 두 카테고리인 온실가스와 미세먼지에서 상반된 결과를 보이기에 전원믹스구성의 변화와 전기차 보급 변화에 따른 환경영향평가가 필요하다. 전기차를 향한 관심의 증가하며 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 수행되며, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 다양한 인자들을 제시하였다. 그중 충전시설, 인구밀도, 유가, 온도, 전력가격, 보조금, 1인당 보유차량 대수 등이 전기차 보급의 주요 인자로 알려져 있다. 전기차 보급의 영향인자를 연구한 대다수의 연구에서 국가 단위의 연간자료를 사용하여 패널 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 우리나라는 주요 영향인자 중 보조금이 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금으로 나뉘어 지급되고 있기에 지역적 특성이 고려되어야 하며, 제주도와 같은 전기차에 특수성을 띄고 있는 지역이 있기에 지자체 레벨에서 분석이 되어야 한다. 이와 더불어, 연간자료가 아닌 월간 자료 사용에 따라 보조금의 잔액 혹은 잔여 대수 변화를 적용한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 전기차 보급 관련 다양한 연구들이 있었지만, 정량적인 연구보다는 정성적인 연구에 초점을 둔 연구들이 대부분이었다. 또한, 전기차 전원믹스 구성 변화를 적용하여 환경영향을 평가한 연구들은 많았지만, 전기차 보급량과 환경영향을 모두 고려한 연구는 찾아보기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 지역별 전기차 보급에 대한 보조금 정책의 영향과 환경개선효과에 대해서 평가하였다. 먼저, 지역별 월간 패널자료를 이용하여 전기차의 보급 활성화에 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였으며, 분석된 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 보조금 정책에 따른 지역별 전기차 보급량 변화를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 전기차 보급에 따른 환경성 분석을 위해 전과정평가를 이용하여 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경개선효과를 보고자 하였다. 본 연구의 첫 번째 전기차 보급 분석을 통해 지역별 월별 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 우리나라의 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 요인을 정량적인 분석을 하고자 하였다. 먼저 지역적 특성을 고려한 월 단위의 시계열 자료에서 나타나는 계절성 등에 대한 영향을 고려하기 위해 인자의 정상성을 확인하였다. 또한, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형에 대한 전기차 보급 모형을 설계하였다. 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형으로 국내 17개 시·도를 대상으로 전기차 보급 영향인자를 분석한 결과, 각각 48%와 50%의 설명력을 갖는 전기차 보급 모형을 확인하였다. 5개의 카테고리인 차량관련과 정책, 인구조사, 기후, 환경에 분류된 인자들은 모형에 따라 각기 다른 영향을 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 하우즈만 검정을 통해 패널고정효과가 모형을 설명하기에 더욱 적절한 것으로 분석되었으나, 고정효과 모형보다 패널확률효과모형에서 더 많은 변수가 통계적으로 유의한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 차량 관련 카테고리의 신규등록 디젤차량 대수와 전체 신규등록 차량 대수는 패널고정효과모형과 패널확률효과모형 모두에서 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 확률효과모형의 경우, 디젤의 가격과 가솔린의 가격 또한 영향인자로 분석되었다. 패널고정효과모형에서는 국고 보조금과 지자체 보조금만이 영향인자로 각각 부(-)의 영향과 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었으나 확률효과모형은 전기차 보급에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 세금감면도 영향인자로 나타났다. 인구조사 카테고리의 인구밀도와 1인당 차량보유대수, 환경적 요인을 대변하는 미세먼지지수는 두 모형 모두에서 영향인자로 분석되었다. 각 지역의 기상조건이 전기차 보급 활성에 영향을 미치는지를 볼 수 있는 기상카테고리의 인자 중 월평균 온도와 월최저온도가 패널고정효과모형에서 영향력이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 패널확률효과모형에서는 기상카테고리의 모든 인자가 영향인자가 아닌 것으로 분석되었다. 앞서 분석된 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자들을 바탕으로 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용하여 지역별 전기차 보급의 동태적 변화를 보기 위해 Stella 플랫폼을 이용하였다. 시스템 다이내믹스는 시스템적 거동을 보이는 대상의 역동적인 변화메커니즘을 비선형적인 피드백 시스템으로 파악하고, 이를 다양한 요인을 고려하여 시뮬레이션하여 분석하는 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 지역별 전기차 보급대수 추정을 위해 Bull's eye diagram과 causal loop diagram, stock-flow diagram을 구축하고 보조금, 충전시설, 유가, 전력가격, 연료별 차량 대수 변수로 적용하였다. 이러한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링을 통해 변수 간의 상관관계를 수식화하였다. 지역별 전기차 보급의 시스템 다이내믹스 모델은 지역별 특성에 따른 차이를 보고자 보조금 변수를 제외한 모든 변수는 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 pooled OLS 회귀분석을 하여 수식을 적용하였으며, 보조금 변수는 지역별로 구분하여 신규 전기차 등록대수를 종속변수로 설정하고 다중회귀분석을 진행하였다. 이와 더불어 네 가지 정책시나리오-Subsidy Cliff, Phase-out, Phase-in 50%, Phase-in 350%-를 구축하여 우리나라 2030년 전기차 보급목표인 3백만 대 달성 가능 여부를 확인하였다. 이러한 분석을 통한 결과에 따르면, 2030년 국내 전기차는 Subsidy Cliff 시나리오일 경우 1.37 백만 대와 Phase-out일 경우 1.40 백만 대, Phase-in 50%일 경우, 1.87 백만 대, Phase-in 350%일 경우 3.01 백만 대가 보급될 것으로 분석되었다. 해당 시나리오의 결과를 보면, 보조금이 2030년 350%까지 인상되는 Phase-in 350% 시나리오를 제외한 세 가지 시나리오인 Subsidy Cliff와 Phase-out, Phase-in 50%가 국가 전기차 보급목표에 각각 1.63백만 대, 1.60 백만 대, 1.13 백만 대의 전기차가 추가적으로 보급되어야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 구축된 네 가지 시나리오를 지역별 전기차 보급 대수로 보면, 2019년 가장 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역은 제주, 서울 경기 대구 순이었으며, 2030년은 제주 경기 서울 대구 순으로 분석되었다. 시간이 지나며 2019년 대비 많은 전기차가 보급되었음에도 전기차 보급이 활성화된 지역은 순서의 차이는 있었으나 동일하였다. 하지만 전기차 보급을 거주 인구수와 대비하여 분석한 결과, 지역별 전체 전기차 보급 대수를 분석한 결과와 상반된 결과가 산출되었다. 2030년에 가장 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 나온 지역은 제주, 울산, 강원, 전남 순이었다. 제주를 제외한 세 지역은 전체 보급대수로 보았을 때는 많은 전기차가 보급된 지역이 아니었지만 적은 인구수 대비 많은 전기차가 보급된 것으로 나타났다. 울산의 경우, 전체 전기차 대수를 보면 16개 시도에서 가장 적은 전기차가 보급되는 것으로 분석되었지만 인구대비로 보았을 경우는 특수케이스인 제주를 제외한 제일 많은 1인당 전기차 대수가 보급된 곳으로 분석되었다. 이는 자동차 공장이 있는 울산이 기존연구에서 전기차의 생산지나 공장이 있는 지역의 전기차 보급이 높게 나타난 것과 같은 생산지 효과로 사료된다. 본 연구의 세 번째 전기차 보급 분석인 국가전력수급계획에 따른 전기차 보급의 환경영향을 보기 위해 사용된 전과정평가는 제품이나 서비스의 환경영향를 정량화하는 분석 방법이다. 전기차 보급에 따른 분석을 하기에 앞서 목적 및 범위설정 단계에서 전기차의 연료생산 시의 전과정평가를 실시하였으며, 전과정평가시 1kWh의 전력 생산 시를 기능단위로 설정하였다. 이와 더불어 전력생산 시에 발생하는 오염물질의 인벤토리를 분석하였으며, 본 연구에서는 전기차의 보급에 따른 환경영향을 분석하기 위해 차량의 수명인 11년과 통계청에서 제공하는 연간 주행거리, 두 번째 분석에서 산출된 정책별 전기차 보급 대수를 적용하여 보급 대수에 따른 환경영향을 분석하였다. 또한, 제8차 전력수급계획 옵션과 석탄화력발전의 신재생에너지로의 추가적 전환 옵션을 적용하여 비교 분석하였다. 환경 옵션으로 제시된 정격용량을 기준으로 산출한 제8차 계획과 신재생에너지로의 전환을 적용하여 전기차의 온실가스와 미세먼지 배출량을 보면, 온실가스는 8차 계획 옵션 시 81.7g CO2e/VKT가 배출되며, 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션 시, 37.2g CO2e/VKT의 온실가스가 배출되는 것으로 나타났다. 온실가스 배출량이 가장 낮게 나온 신재생에너지로의 전환 옵션은 2016년의 실질 전원구성과 3.1배 차이가 나며, 내연기관차인 휘발유차와 경유차와는 각각 4.57배와 4.25배 차이가 나는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 최근 미세먼지 관련 이슈가 크게 대두됨에 따라 차량에서 배출되는 미세먼지 배출량의 환경영향을 분석해보았다. 휘발유와 경유, 전기차 중 가장 많은 미세먼지 배출량을 보였던 전기차는 8차수급계획 옵션을 적용 시 1km 주행 시 20.7mg PMe를 에너지 전환 옵션을 적용 시 9.4mg PMe/VKT를 배출하는 것으로 산출되어 12.4mg PMe/VKT의 배출량을 보인 내연기관차(휘발유) 보다 1.32배 적을 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 인자분석을 위해 월간 지역패널자료를 이용하여 분석을 진행하였다. 하지만, 일반적인 연간자료를 이용한 패널분석이 아닌 월간 자료를 이용한 패널 분석을 하며 지역별 자료 구득에 있어 한계가 존재하였다. 특히, 전기차 보급에 영향을 미치는 충전시설이나 충전전력요금과 같은 주요 영향인자가 포함되지 않았다는 점에서 향후, 지역별 충전시설의 월간 자료의 구축이 요구된다고 판단된다. 이와 더불어 본 연구에서는 미세먼지 변수를 농도로 적용하여 분석을 진행하였지만 향후, 기존의 연구에서 언급된 바와 같이 월별 미세먼지 나쁨 일수를 적용할 경우, 환경성 부분에서보다 더 정확한 결과 도출이 가능할 것이라 사료된다. 본 연구에서 진행한 세 가지의 분석 중 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 두 번째 파트의 분석은 다양한 시나리오 중 현재 예산을 매해 35% 증액하여 2030년 350% 인상에 도달하는 시나리오가 적합한 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만, 2023년을 기점으로 전기차 보조금 지급을 중단하는 정책을 시행하고 있는 우리나라의 입장에서는 현재 전기차 보조금을 위한 예산을 매년 35%씩 10년 동안 지속하는 것에는 어려움이 있기에 내연기관차로부터의 환경오염세와 같은 fee를 징수하여 친환경차인 전기차의 보조금을 rebate하는 피베이트 제도 (Feebate)를 해야 할 필요가 있다고 사료된다. 향후, feebate와 전기차 보급을 연계하여 연구가 가능할 것으로 판단된다. ; Chapter Ⅰ. Introduction 1 1. Background 1 2. Research Objectives 8 Chapter Ⅱ. Literature Review 9 1. Determinant of EV Propagation 9 2. System Dynamics Modeling 15 3. Environmental Impacts of EV Propagation 17 Chapter Ⅲ. Data and Methods 19 1. Panel Analysis for Deriving Affecting Factors of EV Propagation 19 1.1. Scope of Study 19 1.2. EV Trends in Korea 20 1.3. Categories of Affecting Factors 24 1.3.1. Vehicle Sector 28 1.3.2. Policy Sector 31 1.3.3. Demographic Sector 35 1.3.4. Climate Sector 38 1.3.5. Environment Sector 39 1.4. Stationary Testing 43 1.5. Panel Analysis Model 46 1.5.1. Pooled Ordinary Least Square 46 1.5.2. Fixed Effect Model 48 1.5.3. Random Effect Model 50 2. System Dynamics on EV Propagation 51 2.1. Scope of Study 51 2.2. Data for Dynamic Analysis 52 2.2.1. Propagation and Activation Policy on EVs 52 2.2.2. Model Parameters of System Dynamics Analysis 56 2.3. System Dynamics 62 2.3.1. Introduction to System Dynamics 62 2.3.2. Characteristics of System Dynamics 64 2.3.3. Steps of Modeling System Dynamics 68 2.4. Policy Scenarios for EV Propagation 70 3. Life Cycle Assessment of EV Propagation 72 3.1. National Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand 72 3.2. Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.1. Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment 74 3.2.2. Goal and Scope Definition 76 3.2.3. Life Cycle Inventory Analysis 79 3.2.4. Life Cycle Impact Analysis 80 3.3. Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options 82 Chapter Ⅳ. Results and Discussion 84 1. Key Drivers of EV Propagation 84 1.1. Descriptive Statistics of Factors 84 1.2. Identification of Stationarity of Factors 88 1.3. Result of Goodness of Fit Test 89 1.4. Panel Fixed Effect of EV Propagation 90 1.5. Panel Random Effect of EV Propagation 98 2. System Dynamics Modeling for EV Propagation 103 2.1. Bull's Eye Diagram of EV Propagation Model 103 2.2. Causal Loop Diagram of EV Propagation 105 2.3. Stock-Flow Diagram of EV Propagation 108 2.4. Propagation Results of EV considering Policies 115 2.4.1. Subsidy Cliff Scenario 115 2.4.2. Phase-out Subsidy Scenario 118 2.4.3. Phase-in Subsidy Scenarios 121 2.4.4. Regional EV Projection per Thousand in 2030 127 2.4.5. Policy Implications of EV Projection considering Policy Scenarios 132 3. Environmental Implications of EV Propagation 134 3.1. Environmental Performance of EVs Compared to ICEVs 134 3.2. Environmental Implications of Combination of Policy Scenarios and Environmental Options for EV Propagation 138 3.2.1. Emissions Considering Environmental Options and Policy Scenarios 138 3.2.2. Total Emissions from ICEV and EV Considering Energy Transition Option and Policy Scenario 142 Chapter Ⅴ. Conclusion 147 References 152 Abstract in Korean 172 ; Master

Cameroon is a lower-middle income country with social indicators and levels of poverty which are below those for comparator countries. Large and rising inequalities between north and south, inefficiencies in public resource allocation and an adverse business environment explain this. While insecurity due to Boko Haram activities and rapidly rising public debt constrain efforts at poverty reduction, there exists a huge potential for economic growth and poverty reduction. This potential remains mostly untapped. Realizing it will require far reaching reforms, particularly with respect to the business environment and public financial management, and require politically courage to accomplish. The remainder of this document explores how to achieve the twin goals of ending poverty and improving shared prosperity by 2030 in a sustainable manner. The document identifies a limited number of binding constraints which would need to be lifted to achieve the poverty objective. The next four chapters present background material to chapter six, which presents binding constraints to poverty reduction. The micro-foundations to poverty reduction are discussed in chapters two and three. Chapter two discusses poverty, equity and vulnerability. Chapter three discusses human capital and its role in poverty reduction. Chapter four considers poverty reduction from a macro-economic perspective. It discusses opportunities for growth and economic transformation as well as the status of various cross-cutting economic services. Chapter five, considers governance, fragility and the institutional environment. Binding constraints to sustainable poverty reduction are identified in chapter six.