Suchergebnisse

Recognizing the importance of the exchange rate system for open economies, we study the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate regimes. In the first chapter, we define the exchange rate regime and discuss the official or de jure classification of exchange regimes by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as de facto classifications developed by Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2005) and by Reinhart and Rogoff (2003). We subsequently discuss the question of which classification(s) of regimes to use. In the second chapter, the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth volatility is investigated. Building on the literature on the relationships between the exchange rate arrangement and volatility and the literature on the determinants of growth volatility, the objective is to know whether the exchange rate system affects growth volatility once the determinants of volatility identified by the existing literature are controlled for. The chapter also assesses the channels through which the exchange rate regime affects volatility. In particular, we ask whether the contribution of terms of trade instability to growth volatility is influenced by the exchange rate arrangement. Is the impact of the exchange rate regime on volatility affected by financial and economic development ? Volatility or instability is measured from a trend which process is obtained from panel unit root tests. By using de jure exchange rate regimes along with de facto ones as classified by Reinhart et Rogoff (2003), we are able to assess the sensitivity of the results to the classification of exchange regimes. In the third chapter, the analysis is taken a step further by investigating whether the relation between growth and volatility is modified by the exchange rate system. Does the exchange rate regime modify the direct impact of volatility on growth ? In other words, does a given level of volatility reduces output growth identically under fixed and flexible regimes ? Moreover, are the indirect effects of volatility on the growth rate of per capita real output modified by the exchange rate system ? To answer the latter question, the channels of investment, human capital, trade and financial development are considered. Another objective of the chapter is to verify whether the effects of exchange rate regimes and volatility on output growth are heterogeneous or not according to the very quantiles of output growth. To pursue this avenue, we use the technique of regression quantiles with instrumental variables. In the fourth chapter, the impact of the exchange rate arrangement on the economy's adjustment is analyzed. Does the adjustment of the economy – measured by real exchange rate misalignment – depend on the exchange rate regime ? Is the impact of the exchange rate system on misalignment explained by its effects on real overvaluation and undervaluation episodes ? What do de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and deviations of announced from observed exchange rate policies reveal ? To answer these questions, we follow two steps. In the first one, a cointegration relation between the real exchange rate and its real and nominal determinants is estimated using non stationary panel techniques (Pedroni, 1996, 2000 and 2004) in the samples of low income, middle income and high income countries. Misalignment is then obtained as the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium value, the latter being determined by the equilibrium values of the fundamentals. In the second step, the impact of the exchange rate regime on the economy's adjustment is assessed using the measure of real exchange rate misalignment computed in the first step. ; Partant de l'importance du système de change pour les économies ouvertes, nous étudions les effets macroéconomiques du régime de change. Dans le premier chapitre, nous définissons le régime de change. Nous discutons ensuite la classification de jure ou officiel du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) et les classifications de facto développées par Levy Yeyati et Sturzenegger (2005) et par Reinhart et Rogoff (2003). Enfin, la question de savoir quelle(s) classification(s) utiliser est discutée. Dans le second chapitre, l'impact du régime de change sur la volatilité de la croissance est évaluée. En rapprochant la littérature sur les effets du régime de change sur la volatilité de la croissance et celle sur les déterminants de la volatilité, l'objectif est de savoir si le système de change affecte la volatilité de la croissance une fois que les autres déterminants de la volatilité identifiés dans la littérature sont pris en compte. Le chapitre évalue également les canaux par lesquels le régime de change affecte la volatilité. En particulier, nous cherchons à savoir si la contribution de l'instabilité des termes de l'échange à la volatilité de la croissance est affectée par le système de change en vigueur. De même, l'impact du régime de change sur la volatilité est-il influencé par le développement financier et le développement économique ? La volatilité ou instabilité est mesurée à partir d'une tendance dont la forme est obtenue par application des tests de racines unitaires en panel. L'utilisation successive des régimes de change de jure et des régimes de change de facto de Reinhart et Rogoff (2003) permet d'évaluer la sensibilité des résultats à la classification des systèmes de change utilisée. Dans le troisième chapitre, l'analyse est approfondie pour savoir si la relation entre la croissance et sa volatilité est modifiée par le système de change. Le régime de change modifie-til l'impact direct de la volatilité sur la croissance ? Autrement dit, un même niveau de volatilité réduit-il la croissance de façon identique dans les régimes de change fixes et dans les régimes de change flexibles ? Par ailleurs, les effets indirects de la volatilité sur la croissance du produit réel par tête sont-ils modifiés par le système de change ? Pour répondre à cette dernière question, les canaux de l'investissement, du capital humain, du commerce et du développement financier sont étudiés. Un autre objectif de ce chapitre est de savoir si l'impact du système de change et celui de la volatilité sur la croissance sont hétérogènes suivant les quantiles de la croissance. Pour ce faire, la technique des régressions quantiles avec variables instrumentales est utilisée. Dans le chapitre quatre, l'impact du régime de change sur l'ajustement économique est analysé. L'ajustement de l'économie, mesuré par le mésalignement du taux de change réel, dépend-t-il du système de change ? L'impact du régime de change sur le mésalignement s'explique-t-il par ses effets sur les épisodes de surévaluation et de sous-évaluation réelles ? Que révèlent les régimes de change de jure, les régimes de change de facto et les écarts entre les annonces et les pratiques de politique de change ? Pour répondre à ces questions, nous procédons en deux étapes. Dans la première, une relation de cointégration entre le taux de change réel et ses déterminants réels et monétaires est estimée à l'aide des techniques de panels non stationnaires (Pedroni, 1996, 2000 et 2004) dans les échantillons de pays à revenu faible, à revenu intermédiaire et à revenu élevé. Puis, le mésalignement est déduit comme l'écart du taux de change réel courant à sa valeur d'équilibre, cette dernière étant elle-même déterminée par les valeurs d'équilibre des fondamentaux. Dans la seconde étape, l'impact du régime de change sur l'ajustement de l'économie est évalué en utilisant le mésalignement calculé dans la première étape.

This research focuses on the concept of « linking value », applied to mutualist insurance companies, in order to contribute to the revival of their core values and democratic ideals. It is fed by the evolutions of contemporary society, where chosen consumption is progressively replacing mass consumerism, thus moderating the producer-consumer dichotomy, which allows new types of relationships between actors to emerge. The progressive disappearance of the borders between consumption actors is key to our work, as the mutualist insurance companies' stakeholders build new types of relations, beyond classic consumption relations, which yields not only exchange value and use value, but also a linking value. The concept of linking value was originally developed by social science, and further brand community developments have led to mobilize this notion in the marketing field. Its usage in the field of insurance services is new. Our work comprises a survey among members of Groupe Macif, including interviews with Macif employees, Macif delegates, and Macif's historic founder. Linking value is an "evasive object", and we had to implement a specific research methodology in order to bring it to light and characterize it within the company. To analyze the interviews, we used an appropriate coding technique, through dedicated software (Modalisa). The research is carried through a double data analysis method, named etic - emic (or horizontal – vertical), aimed first at understanding what has a meaning in the respondent's locutions, and then at identifying the elements of structure of the linking value from the meanings identified. Such reasoning requires that the interviewer has empathy capacities with the respondents. Our research brings the following results: • First, we qualify the "link experience" based on emotions, a reciprocity intention, an ethical functioning and shared confidence. • We then propose a characterization of linking value in the mutualist field, based on an extension to Rémy's typology (2000), which is the current reference for services companies. • Next, we show how linking value emerges, depending on it being based on a priori activism, or on a posteriori relationship between the employees and the policy holder. • We establish the main characteristics of linking value: its capacity to temper the otherness created by the contract, an asymmetry between the partners of the exchange, the very lack of community feelings among members. • We expose the privileged expression vectors for this linking value: the empathy deployed by company's employees and the solidarity schemes. • Recognition emerges also as a foundation to linking value. We register our reasoning in the field of recognition theory, as it founds an ethic of interpersonal relationship, constituent of social link. The mutual recognition dynamics allows each individual to experience a "collective revival", and to share his belonging to a political or ethical community, without losing his identity. Mutualist insurance companies need to recognize such a pluralist community, in which each individual sees himself in the purpose of a company model, as this recognition founds linking value. We finally show that resuming the democratic ideals that historically founded Mutualist Associations is what will allow them to restore an authentic social link, in the spirit of modern mutualism. ; Cette recherche, centrée sur le concept de « valeur de lien », traite plus spécifiquement de sa mobilisation au sein de l'entreprise d'assurance mutualiste, en vue d'esquisser un renouveau de son modèle ainsi que de l'idéal démocratique dont il est porteur. Elle s'inscrit dans les évolutions de la société contemporaine, dans laquelle le consumérisme de masse fait progressivement place à une consommation choisie, et où la relation de pur commerce prend une dimension sociétale. La dichotomie classique producteur-consommateur est ainsi tempérée, et l'on assiste à l'établissement de nouveaux types de relations entre les acteurs de la consommation. L'analyse de ce processus d'effacement progressif des frontières entre acteurs de la consommation est au cœur de notre travail. En effet, au sein des sociétés d'assurance mutualistes, les parties prenantes nouent des relations spécifiques, qui dépassent la relation de consommation classique, apportant à l'échange marchand, au-delà d'une valeur d'échange et d'une valeur d'usage, une « valeur de lien ». Le concept de valeur de lien est issu des sciences sociales. L'émergence des « communautés de marques » dans le domaine de l'économie des biens a conduit les théoriciens et les praticiens du marketing à mobiliser ce concept dans les sciences de gestion. Mais la mobilisation de ce concept dans l'économie des services et plus spécifiquement dans l'assurance, reste encore fragmentaire et partielle, laissant ainsi un champ libre à ce travail de recherche. Notre recherche trouve son ancrage dans un travail d'enquête effectué au sein du sociétariat et de certains personnels du groupe Macif. Nous avons été conduits à qualifier la valeur de lien « d'objet fuyant », et donc à concevoir une démarche d'investigation spécifique permettant de la mettre en évidence et de la caractériser au sein de l'entreprise. Cette démarche s'appuie sur une analyse d'entretiens effectués auprès d'un groupe exploratoire constitué de sociétaires et de personnels en contact du groupe Macif. Elle met en œuvre une technique de codage des données et un traitement informatique adapté (logiciel Modalisa). La démarche d'investigation s'effectue selon une double analyse des données, de type étique-émique (ou horizontal-vertical), visant tout d'abord à comprendre ce qui fait sens à travers les discours des répondants, ensuite à dégager de ce sens les éléments d'une structuration de la valeur de lien. Une telle démarche implique notamment, de la part de l'intervieweur, une capacité d'empathie avec les répondants. Notre recherche nous conduit à dégager les résultats suivants : • En premier lieu, nous qualifions « l'expérience du lien », fondée sur les émotions, une intention de réciprocité, une éthique de fonctionnement et une confiance partagée. • Ensuite, une caractérisation de la valeur de lien dans le champ mutualiste est proposée, sur la base d'une extension de la typologie de Rémy (2000), qui fait actuellement référence dans le champ des entreprises de service. • Puis nous montrons comment la valeur de lien se manifeste, selon que le lien est fondé sur un militantisme a priori, ou sur une relation suscitée a posteriori lors de l'échange entre les personnels en contact et les assurés. • Nous soulignons les principaux traits de la valeur de lien : une capacité à tempérer l'altérité créée par le contrat, une dissymétrie entre les partenaires de l'échange, un manque de sentiment communautaire au sein-même du sociétariat. • Nous dégageons les domaines d'expression privilégiés de cette valeur de lien : l'empathie dont témoignent les personnels en contact et les dispositifs à visée solidaire et de l'entreprise. • La reconnaissance émerge également comme fondatrice de la valeur de lien. Notre démarche s'inscrit dans le champ de la théorie de la reconnaissance qui fonde une éthique de la relation interpersonnelle, constitutive du lien social. [.]

EKT bieži ir pārmests par juridiskā aktīvisma (jeb pārmērīgas tiesību attīstīšanas) praktizēšanu, taču īpašu rezonansi un pārsvarā zviedru arodbiedrību neapmierinātībuizraisīja EKT spriedums Laval lietā. EKT saņēma kritiku, ka Laval spriedumā pamattiesības uz kolektīvo rīcību tā ir pakārtojusi EKL paredzētajai pakalpojumu sniegšanas pamatbrīvībai, kas esot apšaubāmi, jo ekonomiskajām pamatbrīvībām ir jāatbilst pamattiesībām, nevis otrādi. Līdzīgi Eiropas Arodbiedrību konfederācija uztvēra spriedumu lietā RŅffert. Savukārt bijušais Vācijas Federālās Konstitucionālās tiesas priekšsēdētājs Romāns Hercogs (Roman Herzog) pat ir uzsācis kampaņu "Stop the European Court of Justice" ("Apturiet Eiropas Kopienu tiesu" – latv.), apgalvojot, ka EKT iejaucas dalībvalstu kompetencē, un tāpēc mudina ES dalībvalstu nacionālās tiesas apšaubīt EKT spriedumu tiesiskumu. Vienlaikus juridiskajā literatūrā EKT rīcība tiek attaisnota ar Eiropas Savienības Padomes un Parlamenta neizdarību vai nespēju vienoties par tiesību normu tekstu, kā rezultātā EKT nākas aizpildīt pārāk vispārīgajos tiesību aktos pieļautos robus. Tas liecina, ka jautājums par juridisko aktīvismu nav viennozīmīgs un ir pētījuma vērts. Tā kā EKT par juridisko aktīvismu ir bieži kritizēta prejudiciālo nolēmumu lietās saistībā ar darba tiesībam (Laval, RŅffert, Mangold u.c.), autore nolēma savā maģistra darbā pētīt, vai EKT praktizē juridisko aktīvismu tieši darba tiesību jomā. Turklāt pastāv viedoklis, ka tieši sociālās tiesības visvairāk ir attīstījusi EKT (lietās, kas saistītas ar nodarbinātības jautājumiem), nevis ES likumdevējs. Šī pētījuma ietvaros ir neiespējami sistēmiski analizēt visas EKT lietas darba tiesību jomā, taču iespējams pārbaudīt, vai atsevišķu pētnieku bažas par pārmērīgu EKT aktīvismu spriedumos, kas izraisījuši rezonansi, ir pamatotas un kādas ir šo spriedumu pozitīvās un negatīvās sekas dalībvalstīs. Darba ieguldījums tiesību zinātnē ir, ka secinājumi par EKT "aktīvās" rīcības cēloņiem palīdzētu izskaidrot tiesas rīcību un, iespējams, mazinātu skepsi par to. Autore cer arī papildināt plašās diskusijas par EKT juridisko aktīvismu ar šī termina definīciju un analīzi, kas izskaidrotu aktīvisma, tiesību interpretācijas un tālākveidošanas metožu savstarpējo saistību, ņemot vērā, ka nekur darba rakstīšanā izmantotajā literatūrā nerada precīzu atbildi uz šiem jautājumiem. Vienlaikus darbs ir pirmais pētījums par EKT aktīvismu darba tiesībās latviešu valodā, jo līdz darba iesniegšanas dienai Starptautisko un Eiropas tiesību zinātņu katedrā (2009.gada 29.aprīlis) autorei nav kļuvušas zināmas šādi pētījumi vai publikācijas. Maģistra darba mērķi ir izveidot juridiskā aktīvisma definīciju kā atskaites punktu tā pētīšanai, kā arī noteikt juridiskā aktīvisma un tiesību interpretācijas un tālākveidošanas metožu savstarpējo saistību, kā arī izpētīt, vai EKT praktizē juridisko aktīvismu darba tiesību jomā. Maģistra darbā ir šādas nodaļas: (I) "Juridiskā aktīvisma jēdziens", kurā autore sniedz juridiskā aktīvisma skaidrojumu no tiesību teorijas viedokļa; (II) "EKT juridiskais aktīvisms" ar apakšnodaļām (1.) "Vispārīgs problēmas apskats", (2.) "Cēloņi uzskatiem par EKT juridisko aktīvismu", (3.) Viedokļi pret EKT juridisko aktīvismu, (4.) Argumenti, kas attaisno EKT juridisko aktīvismu, sniedzot kritisku dažādu viedokļu apskatu par šo fenomenu EKT praksē un analizējot to iemeslus; (III) "EKT juridiskais aktīvisms darba tiesību jomā un tā sekas" ar apakšnodaļām, kurās analizētas EKT lietas Defrenne II, Kalanke, Mangold, Laval, RŅffert un uzskatu par EKT aktīvismu šajās lietās pamatotība, EKT juridiskā aktīvisma darba tiesību jomā sekas un sniegti ierosinājumi situācijas pilnveidošanai. Visbeidzot pētījumā ietverts kopsavilkums, kurā autore uzsver galvenos secinājumus, darba anotācija angļu valodā, kā arī izmantotās literatūras un juridisko aktu saraksts. Autore secina, ka pieņemamākā juridiskā aktīvisma izpratne nozīmē tiesību tālākveidošanu ārpus likuma robežām, bet nep ; The European Court of Justice (hereinafter – the ECJ) has been frequently criticized about practising judicial activism (or excessive development of law using political arguments), but a particular resonance and dismay of mostly Swedish trade unions was caused by the judgment of the ECJ in Laval case. The ECJ was criticised for subordinating the fundamental right to strike to the economical freedom to provide services by posting of workers, which allegedly should be the other way around – the exercise of economical freedoms ought to comply with that of fundamental rights. The reactions to the judgment in Dirk RŅffert of the European Trade Unions Confederation were similar. Roman Herzog, the former president of the German Constitutional Court, on his part, has initiated a campaign "Stop the European Court of Justice", suggesting that the ECJ is intervening into the competence of the national courts of the Member States and therefore inviting them to disobey the decisions of the ECJ. At the same time, in the legal literature the actions of the ECJ are frequently justified by the inactivity or "legislative inertia" of the EU Parliament and Council, as a result of what the ECJ has to fill the gaps in the too vague legal norms. These preliminary facts suggest that the issue of judicial activism of the ECJ is worth of studying. As the ECJ has been often criticised of having had recourse to judicial activism in cases in the field of employment law (Laval, RŅffert, Mangold etc.), the Author decided to propose a study of whether the ECJ is judicially active in exactly this field. The goals of the study are to analyse, whether the ECJ indeed practices judicial activism in the field of labour law; determine the causes of the opinions that the ECJ is an activist court; analyze views for and against the ECJ's approach; overview the consequences of the ECJ's approach and whether it is necessary to prevent or fight against that approach. The secondary goal of the study is to start a discussion on the possible activism of the ECJ in Latvian, as there is no literature on this particular phenomenon in Latvian or by Latvian authors (as far as the author is concerned), and to establish whether the ECJ has really practiced judicial activism in particular cases in the field of labour law. The contribution of the study to the legal scholarship is that conclusions on the causes of the "activist" approach of the ECJ could explain it and possibly diminish the scepsis about it. The author also hopes to add to the discussions on the judicial activism with own definition of this term and analysis that lays out the interrelation of activism and the methods of interpretation and further development of law; that is particularly important, because the Author has not (yet) found an explicit answer to these questions anywhere in literature. Moreover, the study could be the first research on the activism of the ECJ in the field of labour law in Latvian, because to date there have not been such studies or publications. It is only possible to deduce of judicial activism with respect to a particular case, not to make a general conclusion whether the ECJ practices this approach. Therefore a case study is carried out comparing different views on the judgments in cases Defrenne II, Kalanke, Mangold, Laval un RŅffert, said to be examples of judicial activism. The research is structured in the following chapters: (I) "The definition of judicial activism", (II) "The judicial activism of the ECJ", (III) "The judicial activism of the ECJ in the field of labour law and its consequences". The Author finds that the most appropriate explanation of "judicial activism" is that it is the further development of law contra legem, meaning two situations: firstly, when the gaps in law are filled with arguments (values) that do not arise from the law itself and neither from the legal system, but, for instance, are "simply" an objective, like European integration, that the

The increased awareness for environmental issues and concomitant environmentally conscious governmental policies has prompted the chemical process industry to implement "greener" production and synthesis methods. In particular, the reduction of the emission of harmful, often organic, substances, reduction of the production of waste, and increasing the energy efficiency are three important aspects in the development of environmentally benign chemical production processes. For the chemical and chemical engineering academic community this has given rise to a new direction, where the concept of "green chemistry" is being explored. Supercritical fluids have been established as promising substitutes to organic solvents. Carbon dioxide is of particular interest as an alternative solvent as it has a low toxicity, is non-flammable and has an accessible critical temperature and pressure. In addition, catalysis is an important tool for the optimization of atom efficiency of a chemical conversion, and therefore for the reduction of waste production. Additionally, catalysis allows for reactions to take place under milder conditions, which can also contribute to an increase in energy efficiency. In particular, soluble molecular organometallic catalysts allow chemical conversions with a higher rate and a better selectivity than their heterogeneous counterparts. The difficult separation of a homogeneous catalyst from reaction products, without deactivating the catalyst, is one of the main obstacles for their application on an industrial scale. Nanofiltration using a microporous ceramic membrane has the potential to be a solution to this problem. A large enough catalyst molecule will be retained while reaction products and solvent can permeate across the membrane. In the field of separation technology membranes have emerged as an energy efficient alternative to conventional separation methods, like distillation and extraction. Ceramic membranes are seen as one of the most promising candidates to purify process streams under demanding conditions. The main objectives of this thesis are the evaluation of the possible advantages of using supercritical carbon dioxide as a solvent as an alternative for organic solvents, and the investigation into the potential of membrane technology for the retention of homogeneous catalysts. The hydroformylation of 1-octene, which is an example of a homogeneously catalyzed reaction on an industrial scale, is considered as a model reaction. To perform the hydroformylation in supercritical carbon dioxide an experimental procedure has been developed, which allows for catalyst preparation under hydroformylation conditions and for carrying out the hydroformylation reaction with a well-defined starting point. It has been demonstrated that with this experimental procedure it is possible to obtain highly reproducible results. Furthermore, a relationship between the change in pressure and the change in reaction mixture composition as a function of time has been established. Using this experimental procedure the effect of total pressure, temperature, concentration of reactants, and concentration of catalyst precursors on the reaction rate, chemoselectivity, and the regioselectivity of the hydroformylation of 1-octene has been studied. The concentration of carbon dioxide had an effect on the regioselectivity of the reaction. Therefore, the same density of solvent has been used for each experiment rather than the more common approach of applying the same total pressure for each experiment. Based on the results obtained by the variation of the reaction parameters a kinetic model has been developed. An optimization method has been applied to find the model parameter values that best describe the experimental data. The observed kinetics for the catalyst based on rhodium(I) dicarbonyl acetylacetonate and tris(3,5-bis(trifluoromethyl)phenyl)phosphine shows resemblance to that observed for the hydroformylation where bulky phosphites have been used as the ligand. For this catalyst a high activity in the order of 5×103 to 12×103 mol1-octene molRh-1 h-1 has been observed at 70 °C. Organometallic complexes based on rhodium with phosphine ligands with a varying number of trifluoromethyl groups have been screened for their activity and selectivity for the hydroformylation of 1-octene. Furthermore, the effect of the type of solvent: carbon dioxide, hexane, and toluene has been included in this study. An increase in the number of trifluoromethyl substituents on the triphenylphosphine ligand results in an increase in 1-octene conversion rate and a decrease in the overall selectivity towards aldehydes. This behaviour is observed in all three solvents. For supercritical carbon dioxide or hexane, as the solvent, the outcome of the hydroformylation reaction in terms of activity and selectivity shows great similarity. By following the hydroformylation of 1-octene in time, it was observed that during batch operation rhodium catalysts with trifluoromethyl-substituted triarylphosphines showed a higher differential regioselectivity than based on the overall regioselectivity at the end of the reaction. For the hydroformylation in carbon dioxide this effect was most pronounced. Both the mode of operation, batch or semi batch, and the type of solvent had a significant influence on this phenomenon. The transport of a supercritical fluid across a microporous alumina supported titania membrane has been investigated. The dependence of the permeation of carbon dioxide across the titania membrane on the feed pressure is similar to what has been previously observed for microporous alumina supported silica membranes. At high feed pressure viscous flow appears to be the main mechanism of mass transport across the membrane. Furthermore, the titania membrane shows a reasonable stability over a period of operation of about at least six months in varying conditions. Finally, the first continuously operated experiment has been performed, in which hydroformylation of 1-octene and separation of the catalyst have been integrated using a membrane reactor. During a 27.5 h of operation of the membrane reactor, spread over four consecutive days, a maximum conversion of 17 % and a maximum regioselectivity of 5 in terms of n:iso ratio has been observed. The conversion and the n:iso ratio, which is the ratio between the linear and branched aldehyde product, decrease as a function of the number of permeated reactor volumes indicating a loss of catalyst. Permeation of free ligand and the catalytic species through the membrane appear to be the main reasons for the decrease in activity and selectivity. A good match between membrane retention characteristics and the size of the catalyst and its precursors is not found yet. However, a number of feasible improvements can be made to improve the retention of the catalyst. Using a membrane for retention of a homogeneous catalyst in combination with the application of carbon dioxide as a solvent for the continuous hydroformylation of 1-octene has great potential. Successful application of the envisioned membrane reactor process can have implications for other homogeneously catalyzed reactions of which asymmetric hydrogenation is a commercially relevant example. As a result of the experimental methods used in this thesis the potential benefits of using carbon dioxide as an environmentally benign alternative to organic solvents could be further extended.

Problem Durumu: Post-modern dünyada insanlar çeşitli biçimlerde şiddetle karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. Sokakta yaşanan şiddet, aile içi şiddet, etnik düşmanlık ve çevresel zararların yol açtığı yıkımlar her geçen gün yaşamı daha da zorlaştırmakta, karmaşıklaştırmakta ve tehdit etmektedir. Ülkeler arasında yaşanan savaş ve bunun halka yansıması olan şiddet, toplumlarda büyük yıkımlara yol açmaktadır. Şiddetin önlenmesi, sosyal barışın sağlanması ve egemen kılınmasında en önemli unsurlardan biri eğitimdir. Eğitim dışındaki yöntemlerle toplumda bir süre barış sağlansa bile, böylesi bir barışın kalıcı ve sürekli olması güç bir olasılıktır. Bu nedenle, barışa eğitsel açıdan yaklaşan anlayışların bir ürünü olarak geliştirilen 'barış eğitimi' yetişkinlerin ve çocukların hoşgörü, paylaşım ve içten olma gibi değerlerin öğretim biçiminin ayrılmaz bir parçasıdır. Barış eğitimi, çatışmaları çözme, çeşitliliği anlama ve değerleri açıklama gibi çocukların günlük yaşantılarında yer alan konuları içerir. Ayrıca, öğrencilere iyi niyet, hoşgörü, karşılıklı anlayış, empati gibi beceri ve değerler kazandırır. Barış eğitiminin temel amacı, öğrencilerin sosyal adaleti sağlayabilecek bir dünya düzeni oluşturmalarına katkıda bulunacak stratejiler geliştirmelerine yardım etmektir. Bu nedenle birçok ülkedeki öğretmen eğitim programları demokrasi ile ilgili derslere ve bu derslerde çok kültürlü eğitim ve öğretime gereksinim duymaktadır. Bu tür dersler ve konular geleceğin öğretmenlerinin huzur ve barış kavramlarını daha iyi anlamalarına yardım edecektir. Öğretmen eğitim programları küresel eğitim, çevre eğitimi, cinsiyet eğitimi, çok kültürlü eğitim gibi konuları içermelidir. Öğretmen adaylarına bu tür dersler ve konuların verilmesi daha barışçıl bir dünyanın yapılanmasına katkı sağlayacaktır. Ayrıca barışçıl bir eğitime sahip olan öğrenciler, eleştirel düşünme, karar verme, etkileşim, uzlaşma, çatışmaları çözme, barış ortamı oluşturma, şiddeti önleme gibi özel durumlara uyarlanabilen becerileri edinen öğrencilerdir. Araştırmanın Amacı: Bu araştırma, öğretmen adaylarının barış eğitimine ilişkin algılarını belirlemek üzere gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için şu sorulara yanıt aranmıştır: Öğretmen adaylarının; barış ve barış eğitimi konusundaki düşünceleri nelerdir?, İlköğretim okullarında barış eğitimi gereksinimi konusundaki görüşleri nelerdir?, İlköğretim okullarında barış eğitimi verilmesi gereken derslere ilişkin görüşleri nelerdir?, İlköğretim okullarında barış eğitimi bilincinin geliştirilmesi konusunda yapılabilecek çalışmalara ilişkin görüşleri nelerdir?, Barış eğitimi ile ilgili hayallerindeki okul profilleri nelerdir? Sosyal Bilgiler ve Sınıf Öğretmenliği öğretmen adaylarının algılarının belirlenmeye çalışıldığı bu çalışmanın, ilköğretimde barış eğitimi kavramının önemini ortaya koyacağı umulmaktadır. Ayrıca öğretmen adaylarının bu konudaki tutum, davranış ve görüşlerinin belirlenmesinin ilköğretim ve öğretmen eğitimi öğretim programlarını hazırlayanlara ışık tutması konusunda etkili olacağı düşünülmektedir. Araştırmanın Yöntemi: Araştırma, tarama modelindedir. Araştırma, nitel araştırma tekniklerinden yarı yapılandırılmış görüşme yoluyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. 2005-2006 öğretim yılı bahar döneminde Anadolu Üniversitesi Eğitim Fakültesi İlköğretim Bölümü Sınıf Öğretmenliği ve Sosyal Bilgiler Öğretmenliği üçüncü ve dördüncü sınıfta okumakta olan 26 öğretmen adayından görüşme ile elde edilen verilerin çözümlenmesinde betimsel çözümleme tekniği kullanılmış ve elde edilen veriler sayısallaştırılarak sunulmuştur. Betimsel çözümlemede, elde edilen veriler, daha önceden belirlenen temalara göre özetlenmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Elde edilen veriler, frekanslarla birlikte tablolar biçiminde sunularak öğretmen adaylarının görüşlerinden doğrudan alıntılar yapılmıştır. Araştırmada öğretmen adaylarının okul deneyimi ve öğretim ile ilgili dersleri almış olmaları temel ölçüt olarak belirlendiğinden araştırmada amaçlı örneklem yöntemlerinden ölçüt örnekleme kullanılmış, araştırma üçüncü ve dördüncü sınıf öğrencileri ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmaya katılan 26 öğrenciden 6'sı 3. sınıf, 20'si 4. sınıfta okumaktadır. Öğrencilerin 17'si kız, 9'u erkektir. Yine öğrencilerin 14'ü Sosyal Bilgiler Öğretmenliği, 12'si Sınıf Öğretmenliği programında öğrenim görmektedir. Bulguları ve Sonuçları: Araştırma sonucunda öğretmen adaylarının barış ve barış eğitimi kavramlarını benzer biçimde tanımladıkları görülmektedir. Araştırma kapsamındaki öğretmen adayları barışla ilgili olarak; huzur, sevgi, saygı, dostluk, hoşgörü, kardeşlik, eşitlik, mutlu bir yaşam, savaş, nükleer silah vb.'nin olmadığı bir ortam gibi tanımlamalarda bulunmuşlardır. Öğretmen adaylarının büyük çoğunluğu ilköğretim okullarında barış eğitimi dersini gerekli gördüklerini belirtmişlerdir. Öğretmen adayları, sosyal uyum ve barışı sağlama, çocukların diğer bireylere hoşgörülü yaklaşmasını sağlama, küreselleşmeyi tam olarak sağlama, bireyin kişilik gelişimine yardımcı olma gibi nedenlerle barış eğitiminin gerekli olduğunu vurgulamışlardır. Öğretmen adayları barış eğitimine sosyal bilgiler, vatandaşlık, hayat bilgisi gibi derslerde yer verilebileceğini belirtmişlerdir. Özellikle bu derslerin içeriğinin savaş, barış ve demokrasi kavramları ile vatandaşlık, insan hak ve sorumluluklarının kazandırılmasına uygun olmalarını, neden olarak göstermişlerdir. Öğretmen adayları barış eğitiminin/barış bilincinin kazandırılması için öğrencilerin etkin olmalarını sağlayacak yöntem ve etkinliklere yer verilmeli, öğretmenlere hizmet içi eğitim verilmeli, öğretmen eğitimi programlarına barış eğitimi dersi konulmalı, öğrencinin kendini ifade etmesine olanak tanıyacak olanaklar sunulmalı gibi görüş ve öneriler ileri sürmüşlerdir. Ayrıca öğretmen adayları, barış eğitimi denilince, demokratik, farklılıkların benimsenip içselleştirildiği, öğretmen-öğrenci etkileşiminin yoğun olduğu bir ortam hayal etmişlerdir. Öneriler: Öğretmen adaylarının algılarına dayalı olarak, ilköğretim okullarında çeşitli dersler aracılığıyla barış eğitimi verilmesinin gerekli olduğu, buna paralel olarak da öğretmen adaylarının öğretim programlarına barış eğitimi dersinin konulması gerektiği söylenebilir. Ayrıca, okul ve sınıf içi etkinliklerde barış bilinci ile ilgili etkinlikler düzenlenmeli, öğretmenlere barış eğitimi ile ilgili hizmet içi eğitimler verilmelidir. Ayrıca, barış eğitimi kapsamında okulda aile çalıştayları düzenleme, paylaşım ortamları ve aile merkezi oluşturma gibi çeşitli etkinliklerle ailenin okula katılımı artırılmalıdır. ; Problem Statement: Wars between countries and violence cause immense destruction to societies. Education is one of the essential factors that will aid in stopping violence and establishing social peace. Peace education", which has emerged as the consequence of various approaches regarding peace from an educational perspective, is a sine qua non component of teaching tolerance, sharing and honesty to adults and children. The main purpose of peace education is to encourage students to develop different strategies that would provide social justice, not only in their countries, but also around the world. Purpose: The aim of this study is to determine pre-service teachers' perceptions about peace education. Methods: This study was conducted using a semi-structured interview method, a qualitative method, in order to determine pre-service teachers' perceptions about peace education. The data was collected during the 2005-2006 academic year, using interviews conducted with 26 prospective teachers enrolled in primary education and social sciences education classes in the Department of Primary School Education. Through the employment of a survey method, the data obtained from interviews was analyzed and expressed in figures. Findings and Results: The results indicate that pre-service teachers explain the concepts of peace and welfare using similar concepts, such as welfare/peace, love, respect and friendship. Additionally, the majority of the pre-service teachers in the study lay emphasis on the necessity of peace education in primary schools. They also state that civics, social studies and life knowledge courses are important for peace education because they include the teaching of social issues, such as war, peace, democracy, citizenship and human rights. Pre-service teachers who participated in the study state that peace education is significant, since it encourages values, such as social harmony, tolerance, global thinking, and individual development. The participants have offered the following suggestions: Teaching strategies and methods should be employed that emphasize peace education and in-service education seminars for teachers should be incorporated that develop peace education/peace awareness. Furthermore, pre-service teachers report that peace education is indicative of an environment in which students can easily express their opinions. Peace education offers opportunities for sincere relationships between teachers and students and encourages differences to be adopted and internalized. Recommendations: Peace education courses should be incorporated into primary schools and teacher training programs; activities for an acquisition of peace awareness should take place in the classroom and during school-based activities; and in-service teacher training programs should be designed to include peace education.

In Sweden, the agricultural sector uses an estimated 3.7 TWh per year as electricity or fuel. About 34% of this total is estimated to be used in the production of beef, pork, eggs and milk, including the spreading of manure. Some energy is also used for harvesting ley and cereals as feed, which is not included. Most of the energy used is in the form of electricity (approx 63%). All these estimates are based on a 1981-1984 survey by Nilsson & Påhlstorp (1985). Most of the technical equipment is still the same today on farms of comparable size and production methods. However, herds of pigs and cattle are larger now, and therefore new equipment is being used. The average Swedish dairy farm is 39% larger (49 cows) than the EU-15 average (35.5 cows) and herd size is growing rapidly. The climate in winter at the study farms is not as cold as that in central Europe or northern Sweden, although air temperature was below 0ºC for about 3 months in 2006 (average -0.1ºC, Dec-Feb.) In the period June-August, the average temperature was 17.8ºC in 2005 and 19.1ºC in 2006. It only exceeded 30ºC for a period longer than three hours on seven occasions. Because of the climate, it is necessary to have artificial heating in buildings for sows (farrowing section). In all other buildings the animals produce enough heat themselves to keep the house warm. When breeding cattle or dry sows some farmers accept a low inside temperature. Swedish animal welfare legislation requires more space per animal than most other countries. Slatted floors in lying areas are only permissible for fattening steers. Cages for laying hens have to include a sand-bath, nest and perches. Another difference is that sows can only be kept in crates occasionally and can never be tied up. The purpose of this study was to collect data on energy use on modern farms of a size and with a level of technical equipment that could be expected to be in use for the next 10-15 years. The data obtained were then added to data from Nilsson & Påhlstorp (1985).The survey was conducted on 16 farms with buildings mainly constructed during the past 10 years and with modern equipment. All these farms except one were in the south of Sweden (Skåne, Halland, Lat. 55-56ºN) and the last one 180 km south-east of Stockholm (Lat. 58ºN). The study was structured as follows: - Four complete dairy farms were studied in detail and another three were studied because they had interesting technical equipment that was not installed on the first four farms. - Three farms with pigs were studied. One had an FTS-system (Farrowing To Slaughter in the same pen), one a farrowing-growing system (Farrowing to approx. 25 kg/11 weeks in the same pen), and one had fattening pigs (approx. 25-110 kg). - Two farms with laying hens were studied. One had furnished cages and the other had laying hens on floors. - Two broiler houses were studied. - Four different types of grain dryers were studied: batch drier, circulating batch drier, continuous drier and batch-in-bin drier with multiple stirring augers. To measure electricity use, electricity meters of the type used by power companies were installed. These meters distinguishing between feeding, ventilation, light, manure handling and, for some plants, cleaning/disinfection, heating, milking and packing of eggs. When all these were measured there was still some more electricity that was impossible to measure or to distribute to the right category. This was categorised as Miscellaneous. Meters were also installed for estimating the power (W) used at one piglet farm and at two dairy farms. The data were processed and are included in the appendices in order to allow estimations to be made for other farms and evaluations to reduce the use of energy (power). In milk production, energy use was between 930 and 1540 kWh/cow per year (0.125-0.203 kWh/L milk). The functions that used most energy were milking and feeding, which together used 65-75% of total energy. On farms that used a wheel loader and tractor for mixing Total Mixed Ration (TMR), energy consumption was higher than on those farms that used electrical engines for mixing. One litre of diesel was set to 9.8 kWh. Production of piglets (approx. 25 kg) used 689 kWh/sow per year, which means about 28.7 kWh/25 kg pig (assuming 24 piglets/sow & year). During the fattening period (25-110 kg), energy use was 20 kWh per pig. The total energy requirement to produce finishing pigs from birth to 110 kg was thus 48.7 kWh/110 kg pig or 1163 kWh/sow per year, assuming a sow produces 24 piglets per year. This can be compared with the FTS-system, which uses 2431 kWh/sow per year. This difference is not completely caused by different breeding systems but is more likely to be due to difference in buildings, and therefore to a greater need for energy for lighting and ventilation, and a higher temperature in the farrowing unit. The farm that used less energy heated the breeding areas with a heat-pump, while another used diesel as fuel. Most energy was used for heating (including the use of heat lamps). If the building for dry sows needs mechanical ventilation and artificial light, then this leads to a greater use of energy. Egg production with laying hens in furnished cages used 3.1 kWh/year per hen, while a system with free hens used 5.0 kWh/year per hen. Light and ventilation fans used most energy, but were also the functions that showed the greatest differences between the systems. The difference in energy used for light is most probably due to the higher light intensity and to the two extra hours of light each day in the system with free layers. In broiler production, the largest use of energy was heating (84%), followed by light (10.7%) and ventilation (3.6%). The energy needed to produce one broiler (1.5 kg) was an estimated 0.91 kWh. This value is an average of five batches due to large variations between batches. The use of electricity differed from 6% to 20% between similar houses. All the grain driers except the batch-in-bin drier used between 4.2 and 9.1 kWh per 1000 kg of grain during 2005 and 2006. Due to bad weather conditions the use of energy was 30% higher in 2006. The batch-in-bin dryer used 12.0 kWh per 1000 kg of grain 2006. Due to different technical standards the values are not directly comparable, but the data are valid for the separate functions.

The EDEN project is an interdisciplinary effort conceived to address key issues that have hampered sound hazard and risk assessment for endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the European Union. It has adopted an approach that fully integrates human, wildlife, exposures, mechanisms and low-dose/mixture evaluations. The project was structured into four interlocking themes focusing on EDC mixture exposures, mechanisms of action and novel endpoints, effects on male reproductive health and the evaluation of low-dose and mixture effects of EDCs. For the first time, the simultaneous occurrence of nearly 150 different EDCs in human and wildlife tissues was measured. These studies revealed that numerous EDCs occur together in humans, yet differences in the levels of individual EDCs in specimens from boys with cryptorchidism and from women suffering from breast cancer and their respective controls did not become apparent. It appears that the likelihood of developing any of the above conditions cannot be attributed to any individual chemical at relevant exposure levels. However, there are signs that simultaneous exposure to many different EDCs may play a cumulative role in these disease processes. This means that efforts to develop biomarkers of cumulative EDC exposure should be re-doubled. In contrast, symptoms of endocrine disruption in fish could be explained largely in terms of exposure to estrogenic chemicals, but the possible role of antiandrogenic chemicals in disrupting sexual development in fish requires urgent attention. Fish caught in certain Dutch rivers exceeded the EU permissible levels for polychlorinated dioxins and furans. Considerable progress has been made in establishing relevant modes of action of EDCs and in assessing new endpoints. The screening for EDCs, with its focus on steroid receptor interactions, has not kept up with the progress made in understanding rapid cellular signalling events that occur in the wake of receptor activation. In the interest of avoiding overlooking endocrine active agents it is necessary to expand screening tools to capture rapid signalling events. Substantial progress has been also achieved in characterising the role of the aromatase system in fish as a target of EDCs and the consequences of steroid synthesis disruption on sexual differentiation, reproduction as well as non-reproductive processes such as neurodifferentiation. Extensive investigations of the role of certain phthalates in disrupting male sexual development have revealed delays in germ cell differentiation and other molecular effects as key events underlying the induction of the testicular dysgenesis syndrome. The role of the InsL3 protein in promoting male sexual development proved to be more complex than thought previously. Although the development and validation of an assay for the measurement of InsL3 blood levels was successful, the differences in blood InsL3 levels in normal and cryptorchid boys were too small to exploit InsL3 as a biomarker indicative of disruption of testis descent. The hypothalamic pituitary unit proved to be exquisitely sensitive to the effects of several EDCs, and the effects may account for precocious sexual development observed after early EDC exposure. EDEN has advanced the study of endocrine disruption in fish with activities including the development of microarrays for assessing endocrine disruption in zebrafish and establishing sensitive screening tools for endocrine disruption in fish. The development of a transgenic fish model for the detection of EDC effects proved to be technically too demanding to be completed in time, but efforts continue to complete this project after conclusion of EDEN. An in vivo model in fish (the three-spined stickleback) for the detection of antiandrogenic EDC was developed as a complement to the Hershberger assay. Male reproductive health in Denmark and Finland showed a worrying declining trend. For the first time, it could be established that the same is true for young men in Germany. It is of concern that semen quality among young Germans is similar to the values found in young Danes, a group previously thought to show the lowest semen quality in Europe. Foetal exposure to smoking has been identified as one reason for these effects. Observations of a declining total natural conception rate among the young Danish cohorts imply that the current poor semen quality has an impact on the population fertility in the future – a situation which will be difficult to reverse in the short term. The current and projected widespread use of assisted reproductive technologies may be a sign of such an emerging public health problem which also adds to the load of medical costs in young population. It is of vital importance to continue surveillance of semen quality and all efforts should be made to identify the factors that may cause harm in order to prevent further deterioration. Extensive low-dose studies with EDCs have shown that the conventional estimation of no-observed-adverse-effect-levels (NOAEL), with their reliance on hypothesis testing methods is inadequate for capturing low-dose effects of EDCs. Whenever possible, regression-based approaches with benchmark dose limits should replace NOAEL as the basis for establishing acceptable human exposure levels. A framework was developed to combine the strengths of both methodologies by making considerations of statistical detection limits and statistical power the starting point of testing procedures. Implementation of this framework will require a significant change in toxicological testing practice. Determinants of additivity for EDC mixtures have been characterised and are now well understood for combinations of similarly acting EDCs. Experimental studies have produced evidence that EDCs of relatively low potency and at low exposure levels can still work together to produce significant combination effects when they are present in sufficient numbers. The perceived low potency of many EDCs alone is uninformative in anticipating possible risks stemming from these chemicals. Where EDCs act in concert with endogenous hormones, significant additional effects may result under certain circumstances. Uncertainty still exists in relation to the likelihood of synergistic mixture effects, and concerted efforts should be made to fill this gap. Another source of uncertainty that will hamper sound EDC mixture risk assessment is incomplete knowledge about the identity of EDCs, their exposure levels and number. This issue can only be resolved through the development of dedicated exposure assessment strategies that take account of cumulative exposures. Despite these uncertainties, knowledge about determinants and factors that govern the joint action of similarly acting EDCs is now sufficiently advanced to come to pragmatic risk assessment approaches that take mixture effects into consideration. A modus operandi for EDC mixtures was developed which includes the use of dose addition (including the toxic equivalency factor approach) to arrive at a "mixture no-observed-adverse-effect-level" (MNOAEL) for endpoints relevant to endocrine disruption. These are then combined with a safety factor to arrive at estimates of tolerable human exposure. "Data-poor" situations may require estimation of a crude MNOAEL by dividing individual NOAEL of certain prototype chemicals by the anticipated number of relevant similarly acting chemicals. ; European Commission, FP5 "Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources": Contract No. QLK4-CT2002-00603.

Exploring elections features from a geographical perspective is the focus of this study. Its primary objective is to develop a scientific approach based on geoinformation technology (GIT) that promotes deeper understanding how geographical settings affect the spatial and temporal variations of voting behaviour and election outcomes. For this purpose, the five parliamentary elections (1991-2005) following the political turnaround in 1990 in the South East European reform country Albania have been selected as a case study. Elections, like other social phenomena that do not develop uniformly over a territory, inherit a spatial dimension. Despite of fact that elections have been researched by various scientific disciplines ranging from political science to geography, studies that incorporate their spatial dimension are still limited in number and approaches. Consequently, the methodologies needed to generate an integrated knowledge on many facets that constitute election features are lacking. This study addresses characteristics and interactions of the essential elements involved in an election process. Thus, the baseline of the approach presented here is the exploration of relations between three entities: electorate (political and sociodemographic features), election process (electoral system and code) and place (environment where voters reside). To express this interaction the concept of electoral pattern is introduced. Electoral patterns are defined by the study as the final view of election results, chiefly in tabular and/or map form, generated by the complex interaction of social, economic, juridical, and spatial features of the electorate, which has occurred at a specific time and in a particular geographical location. GIT methods of geoanalysis and geovisualization are used to investigate the characteristics of electoral patterns in their spatial and temporal distribution. Aggregate-level data modelled in map form were used to analyse and visualize the spatial distribution of election patterns components and relations. The spatial dimension of the study is addressed in the following three main relations: One, the relation between place and electorate and its expression through the social, demographic and economic features of the electorate resulting in the profile of the electorate's context; second, the electorate-election interaction which forms the baseline to explore the perspective of local contextual effects in voting behaviour and election results; third, the relation between geographical location and election outcomes reflecting the implication of determining constituency boundaries on election results. To address the above relations, three types of variables: geo, independent and dependent, have been elaborated and two models have been created. The Data Model, developed in a GIS environment, facilitates structuring of election data in order to perform spatial analysis. The peculiarity of electoral patterns – a multidimensional array that contains information on three variables, stored in data layers of dissimilar spatial units of reference and scales of value measurement – prohibit spatial analysis based on the original source data. To perform a joint spatial analysis it is therefore mandatory to restructure the spatial units of reference while preserving their semantic content. In this operation, all relevant electoral as well as socio-demographic data referenced to different administrative spatial entities are re-referenced to uniform grid cells as virtual spatial units of reference. Depending on the scale of data acquisition and map presentation, a cell width of 0.5 km has been determined. The resulting fine grid forms the basis of subsequent data analyses and correlations. Conversion of the original vector data layers into target raster layers allows for unification of spatial units, at the same time retaining the existing level of detail of the data (variables, uniform distribution over space). This in turn facilitates the integration of the variables studied and the performance of GIS-based spatial analysis. In addition, conversion to raster format makes it possible to assign new values to the original data, which are based on a common scale eliminating existing differences in scale of measurement. Raster format operations of the type described are well-established data analysis techniques in GIT, yet they have rarely been employed to process and analyse electoral data. The Geovisualization Model, developed in a cartographic environment, complements the Data Model. As an analog graphic model it facilitates efficient communication and exploration of geographical information through cartographic visualization. Based on this model, 52 choropleth maps have been generated. They represent the outcome of the GIS-based electoral data analysis. The analog map form allows for in-depth visual analysis and interpretation of the distribution and correlation of the electoral data studied. For researchers, decision makers and a wider public the maps provide easy-to-access information on and promote easy-to-understand insight into the spatial dimension, regional variation and resulting structures of the electoral patterns defined. ; Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie ist die Erforschung der aus politischen Wahlen resultierenden Raumstrukturen mit Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung. Auf der Basis eines gemeinsamen räumlichen Bezuges wird es durch die Verknüpfung der Wahlergebnisse mit ausgewählten wirtschaftlichen, demographischen und sozialen Parametern möglich, die räumliche Verteilung, Kernräume (Hochburgen) und räumlich-strukturelle Verknüpfungen der Wahlergebnisse politischer Parteien zu untersuchen. Die Resultate tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis der Ergebnisse politischer Wahlen und deren räumliche Dimensionen auf nationaler bis lokaler Ebene bei. Die Studie wird am Beispiel der fünf Parlamentswahlen (1991-2005) des südosteuropäischen Reformstaates Albanien durchgeführt, die seit der politischen Wende 1990 stattgefunden haben. Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung ist die Tatsache, dass Wahlen, wie zahllose andere gesellschaftliche Phänomene auch, eine räumliche Dimension besitzen. Diese kommt in der territorialen Organisation politischer Wahlen in Wahlkreisen explizit zum Ausdruck. In der parlamentarischen Vertretung der politischen Parteien spiegelt sich dies allerdings nur indirekt wider. Zwar waren die parteipolitischen Aspekte politischer Wahlen als auch die parlamentarische Repräsentation sowie die soziodemographischen Strukturen der Wahlbevölkerung Gegenstand einer Vielzahl von Studien aus Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften. Dies auch gilt für die Geographie. Die erwähnte räumliche Dimension politischer Wahlen wurde bislang aber seltener in das Zentrum von Untersuchungen gestellt. Es mangelt insofern auch an spezifischen Methodologien, die eine integrierte Untersuchung aller relevanten Wahlparameter ermöglichen und eine umfassende Bewertung alle Aspekte des Wahlwahlverhaltens einer Wahlbevölkerung bei politischen Wahlen unterstützen. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht strukturelle wie räumliche Merkmale und Zusammenhänge der wesentlichen Faktoren, die bei politischen Wahlen relevant sind. Ausgangspunkt ist die Untersuchung so genannter Wahlmuster, die durch das Zusammenwirken folgender Faktoren entstehen: Wahlprozess (Wahlsystem, Wahlcode), politische und soziodemographische Kenndaten der Wahlbevölkerung, räumliche Ausbreitung und regionale Struktur der Wahlbezirke sowie die räumliche Verteilung und Strukturierung der Wahlbevölkerung. Als Wahlmuster wird die endgültige Repräsentation von Wahlergebnissen, i.d.R. in Tabellen- und Kartenform, betrachtet. Wahlmuster entstehen durch komplexe Interaktion der sozialen, wirtschaftlichen, juristischen und räumlichen Merkmale der Wahlbevölkerung zu einer bestimmten Zeit (Wahltag) in einem bestimmten Raum (Wahlgebiet). Für die Untersuchung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dimension der Wahlmuster werden Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung eingesetzt. Die räumliche Dimension wird dabei in drei Merkmalsgruppen untersucht: Erstens, die Beziehungen zwischen Raum (Standort) und Wahlbevölkerung, wie sie sich in den demographischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Kennwerten der Wahlbevölkerung manifestieren. Zweitens, die Interaktion zwischen Walbevölkerung und Wahl, die die Grundlage bildet, um regionale Kontexteffekte bei Wahlverhalten und Wahlergebnissen zu untersuchen. Drittens, die Verknüpfung von Wahlergebnissen und deren räumlichen Bezügen, wie sie sich in der stetigen Veränderung der Wahlkreisgrenzen niederschlägt. Um die genannten Merkmalsgruppen zu untersuchen, werden drei Variablengruppen gebildet: räumliche, unabhängige, abhängige Variablen. Ihre raumzeitlichen Interaktionen werden mittels zweier raumbezogener Modelle untersucht. Das graphikfreie Datenmodell wird in einem Geoinformationssystem erstellt und erlaubt die Strukturierung der Wahldaten. Dies bildet eine Voraussetzung für die nachfolgende räumliche Analyse. Das besondere Kennzeichen der Wahlmuster – eine mehrdimensionale Matrix der Variableninformation, die in unterschiedlichen, nicht aggregierbaren administrativen Raumbezugseinheiten vorliegt – behindert die räumliche Analyse der Originaldaten. Um dennoch räumliche Analysen durchzuführen, ist es erforderlich, den Raumbezug zu verändern bei gleichzeitiger Beibehaltung der thematischen Merkmale. Hierbei werden alle Wahldaten sowie die relevanten soziodemographischen Daten auf eine gemeinsame Raumbezugseinheit bezogen. Statt unterschiedlich administrativ abgegrenzter Raumeinheiten werden regelmäßige Rasterzellen gleicher Maschenweite als Raumbezugseinheiten definiert und den bisherigen, separaten Raummustern der Variablen überlagert. Auf diese Weise wird die räumliche Gleichverteilung aller Variablen in eine gemeinsame räumliche Bezugsbasis überführt, ohne dass die semantischen Merkmale verändert werden. Entsprechend dem Erfassungs- und Präsentationsmaßstab wurde eine Maschenweite von 0,5 km gewählt. Der hieraus resultierende feingranulare Raumgitter bildet die gemeinsame Basis für die nunmehr möglich integrierte räumliche Analyse aller Merkmalsgruppen. Die hier beschriebene rasterbasierte Raumanalyse stellt eine eingeführte Methode der GIS-basierten Geoinformationsverarbeitung dar. Sie wurde bislang jedoch selten zur Verarbeitung und Analyse von Wahldaten eingesetzt. Das mit dem Datenmodell korrespondierende graphikbezogene Visualisierungsmodell wird in einer Kartenkonstruktionsumgebung erstellt und erlaubt die fachgerechte kartographische Veranschaulichung ausgewählter Analyseergebnisse des Datenmodells. Daten- und Kartenmodell sind durch einen Datenfilter verknüpft, der die erforderliche Datenkonversion ermöglicht. Auf Basis des Visualisierungsmodells wurden zweiundfünfzig Kartenmodelle des Kartogramm- bzw. Kartodiagrammtyps erzeugt. Sie ermöglichen die vertiefte visuelle Exploration, Analyse und Interpretation der räumlichen Verteilung und Korrelation der untersuchten Wahldaten. Komplementär zum graphikfreien Datenmodell eröffnet das Visualisierungsmodell Fachwissenschaftlern, politischen Entscheidungsträgern und - in begrenztem Umfang – einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit einen intuitiven Erkenntniszugang zur den räumlichen Dimensionen, der regionalen Variation der Wahlergebnisse und den resultierenden raumgebundenen Wahlmustern.

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war die Entwicklung einer Methode zur Berechnung der flächenhaften Verteilung von Luftverunreinigungen. Atmosphärische Ausbreitungsmodelle modellieren die Verteilung von Gasen oder Partikel anhand mathematisch formulierbarer Wirkmechanismen. Messergebnisse von Luftverunreinigungen werden nur zur Validierung der berechneten Verteilung, bzw. zur Modellentwicklung eingesetzt. Jedoch ist die Verwendung vieler, gut verteilter Messdaten als Modelleingabe die einzige Möglichkeit, die tatsächlich existierende Verteilung der gesuchten Komponente zu berücksichtigen. Mit einem Netz von Passivsammlern kann eine solche Verteilung kostengünstig und zeitgleich erhoben werden. Im Rahmen des UNOPS-Projekts "Preliminary Assessment of Ambient Air Quality in Cyprus" wurde an 270 Punkten NO2 Passivsammler in sechs Messkampagnen exponiert. Auf diese Weise entstand eine gute Datenbasis für die Entwicklung einer Methode, mit der man die tatsächlich gemessene Verteilung von Luftverunreinigungen berücksichtigen kann. Darüber hinaus sollte man bei einem realitätsnahen Modell die wichtigsten Einflüsse, wie etwa die Bevölkerungsdichte oder die Emissionsverteilung miteinbeziehen. Gegenwärtig erfüllen drei Verfahren diese Anforderungen: Regressionsmodelle, Interpolation und Künstliche Neuronale Netze. Künstliche Neuronale Netze sind derzeit die einzige Möglichkeit, ein Modell unter Berücksichtigung der obengenannten Kriterien zu entwickeln. Der heute meistverwendete Netzwerktyp im Bereich Luftqualitätsmodellierung ist das sogenannte "Multilayer Perceptron", das auch im Rahmen dieser Arbeit zum Einsatz kam. Im Trainingsmodus wurde ein sogenannter kontrollierter Lernalgorithmus verwendet, bei dem der Anwender das Netz mit Ein- und bekannten Ausgangsvariablen, also Luftverunreinigungsmessungen trainiert. Die Aufgabe des neuronalen Netzes ist das Erlernen der zumeist nichtlinearen Zusammenhänge zwischen Ein- und Ausgabe. Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein Analysegitter mit 1x1 km Kantenlänge über das Untersuchungsgebiet Zypern gelegt und jeder Gitterzelle wurden die entsprechenden Eingabevariablen, wie etwa die UTM-Koordinaten zugeordnet. Bei den Gitterzellen mit Passivsammlern konnten die Zusammenhänge zwischen Eingabe und Ausgabe ermittelt und anschließend auf alle anderen Zellen übertragen werden. Im Laufe der Entwicklung wurden alle verfügbaren Variablen in uni- und multivariaten Modellen getestet. Mit den UTM-Koordinaten als Eingangsdatensatz konnte zunächst eine neuronale Interpolation erzielt werden. Das Ergebnis war eine vereinfachte Interpolationskarte mit NO2 Konzentrationen von 30 bis 40 μg/m³ in den Städten und geringeren Konzentrationen in ländlichen Gebieten. Bemerkenswert sind hierbei unrealistische, gerade Streifen von NO2 Konzentrationen um 20 μg/m³, welche die Städte Nicosia, Limassol und Larnaka miteinander verbinden. Anschließend wurde dem Analysegitter ein digitales Höhenmodell angepasst und das Netzwerk mit den resultierenden Höhenwerten trainiert. Auch hier traten physikalisch unmögliche Werte auf, wie etwa hohe NO2 Konzentrationen in Flusstälern. Ein sehr wichtiger Einfluss auf die Verteilung von Luftverunreinigungen sind die atmosphärischen Ausbreitungsbedingungen. Da alle meteorologischen Parameter ständig variieren ist es unmöglich ein mittleres Windfeld zu berechnen. Windstatistiken wären eine mögliche Lösung, können jedoch nicht direkt als Eingabe verwendet werden, da es sich im Falle der Windrichtung um eine Verteilung von mehreren Werten handelt. Um dennoch die Ausbreitungsbedingungen zu berücksichtigen, wurden Abgasfahnen der wichtigsten Emissionsquellen in Zypern berechnet. Methodisch kamen hierbei das Gauß-Modell P&K 3782 und statistische Analyseverfahren wie Regressionsanalysen zum Einsatz. Die Ergebnisse wurden mit einem neuen rechnerischen Ansatz auf das Analysegitter verteilt, wobei das Konzept der "Distributed Emissions" entwickelt wurde. Mit diesem Input für das Neuronale Netz konnte bereits eine sehr genaue NO2 Immissionskarte berechnet werden, auf der die Lage der Quellen und deren Emissionsstärken gut wiedergegeben werden. Nach den oben beschriebenen univariaten Modellen wurden multivariate Berechnungen durchgeführt, um auch noch die vorhandenen weiteren Einflussparametern miteinzubeziehen. Alle Modelle mit UTM-Koordinaten und Höhenwerten als Eingabe produzierten wiederum unrealistische Verteilungsmuster. Das beste Ergebnis konnte mit einem Neuronalen Netzwerk erzielt werden, das mit "Verteilten Emissionen" und der Populationsdichte trainiert wurde. Diese Modellkonfiguration bewahrte die positiven Aspekte der univariaten Ansätze und machte außerdem noch weitere Quellen wie Dörfer deutlich sichtbar. Eine realistische, fein strukturierte Immissionskarte von Zypern ist das Resultat dieser Berechnungen. ; The objective of this work was to develop a method to calculate realistic air pollutants distribution maps. Most common state of the art dispersion models are limited in using air pollutant measurement data. They are only used for validation of the results - a fact that does not limit the importance of this model type which is still first choice for many questions. Yet, the usage of many, well distributed measurement data as a model input is the only possibility to provide a direct link to the actual air pollution distribution. So the first demand to the model was the ability to consider such data in its algorithm. Diffusive samplers are a predestined method to assess the spatial distribution of air pollutants, since they are the only economic possibility to carry out simultaneous measurements at many places. During the UNOPS project "Preliminary Assessment of Ambient Air Quality in Cyprus" NO2 diffusive samplers were exposed at 270 sites in six campaigns throughout one year. A second requirement for the model was the ability to consider the most important influence parameters, like the emissions or the population density - most available methods are limited in this respect. Three methods were found to generally fulfil these requirements: Regression models, interpolation algorithms and artificial neural networks. First, the regression analysis was excluded since it is too rigid, too limited to reproduce non-linear correlations and based on too many theoretical statistical assumptions that are hard to be kept. Interpolation is a well-developed standard method that is also recommended by the European Union. It was therefore tried to investigate the possibilities that lay in this approach. Simple interpolation failed to reproduce a realistic distribution of air pollutants, although exact interpolation algorithms preserve the measured values. The result maps depend strongly on the location of the measurement site; sources in between are neglected. In air pollution modelling and comparable fields of neural network application, it is common sense that multilayer perceptrons with backpropagation deliver the best results. In training mode, a so-called "controlled learning" was applied, where the user provides the input data together with a set of known outputs. The task of the network is to learn the correlation between inputs and outputs. For this purpose, an analysis grid of 1x1 km was laid over the research area of Cyprus and the most important influencing variables were intersected with this grid. For all grid cells with diffusive samplers, the correlations of the annual NO2 concentration with the input variables were calculated. First of all a neural interpolation of the diffusive sampler measurements could be established by using the UTM coordinates as input. The result was a simplified interpolation map with NO2 concentrations around 30 to 40 μg/m³ in the cities and lower concentrations in rural areas. Remarkable here are unrealistic straight stripes of medium NO2 concentrations of about 20 μg/m³ connecting the cities of Nicosia, Limassol and Larnaka where the highest concentrations were measured. A very important influence on the distribution of air pollutants are the dispersion conditions. The only realizable possibility to include meteorological data was to consider case studies for the major emission sources in Cyprus. So the dispersion plumes for the most important sources were calculated using annual wind statistics: For the largest cities, the power plants, one cement factory and the highways. Applied methods for this purpose were the Gaussian dispersion model P&K 3782 and statistical evaluations including regression analysis. Finally the plumes were transferred into so-called distributed emissions. Trained with this input data, the network reproduced the actual location and strength of all the sources that were used as input. After using univariate models, multivariate calculations were carried out to depict the complex correlations that influence the distribution of air pollutants. All models with UTM coordinates again created unrealistic large and regular plumes coming from the south-eastern bottom of the map, which lead to their exclusion. The same is true for the altitude. For both maps the population density was added with no positive effect. Finally, the best result could be established with a model that uses the enhanced emissions inventory and the population density as inputs. This configuration preserved the positive aspects of the univariate model with emissions and added additional sources like villages, which were omitted in the emissions inventory. A realistic, fine structured map was the result.

La tesis se centra en el momento que Guadalajara se hizo consciente de la necesidad de actualizar su manera de hacer arquitectura. La ciudad desde su fundación, en 1452, había tenido un crecimiento paulatino, siendo hasta mediados del siglo XX que sucedió un crecimiento excesivo. Entonces imperó la necesidad de ordenar territorios y dar solución, tanto a la demanda de vivienda, como a la construcción de nueva infraestructura para satisfacer y dar cabida a las actividades colectivas de los ciudadanos tapatíos. Esto representaba una cantidad enorme de trabajo para una población que crecía sin una clara idea ciudad, y donde la manera de construir se basaba en técnicas casi artesanales. Sumado a estos factores, existe la premisa que hasta 1948 no existió una escuela de Arquitectura en Guadalajara. En la parte inicial de la tesis, se reconstruyen los acontecimientos en torno a la fundación de la primera escuela de arquitectura. La figura de Ignacio Díaz Morales, su director, se presenta como un personaje preocupado por la reflexión y la enseñanza de la profesión. Él consiguió el patrocinio del gobierno y otras autoridades para crear la escuela e importar profesores europeos que enriquecieran su perfil académico. Se hace un seguimiento de los primeros años de esta institución y de las asignaturas más significativas que motivaron un especial discernimiento. Entre estas clases se destaca Educación Visual, impartida por Mathías Goeritz durante sus primeros años en suelo mexicano, así como la aportación de otros profesores extranjeros como Silvio Alberti, Horst Hartung y Eric Coufal. Como complemento del primer capítulo se hace un breve seguimiento del crecimiento urbano de Guadalajara y se introduce el contexto en la que se construyeron los edificios que son objeto de estudio en la segunda parte de la tesis. La segunda parte de la tesis recupera la obra de los que fueron alumnos y profesores, extranjeros o locales de la primera escuela de arquitectura. Alejandro Zohn y Gabriel Chávez de la Mora (alumnos), Salvador de Alba y Julio de la Peña (profesores locales), Eric Coufal y Horst Hartung (profesores europeos). Esto sugiere lineamientos para enfocar la mirada y comprobar la calidad de la escuela a través de los edificios tapatíos. Las construcciones jaliscienses de estos arquitectos aportan especial interés en la relación del objeto arquitectónico con la ciudad, en la incorporación de nuevas tecnologías constructivas, y en la experimentación geométrica. La obra de carácter colectivo de estos seis autores conforma el objeto de estudio, la cual se analiza dentro de cuatro escenarios identificados por el tipo de intervención. El "escenario 1" presenta 5 ejemplos dentro de una misma zona. En el "escenario 2" se muestran 7 ejemplos de equipamiento disperso en diferentes partes de la ciudad. El "escenario 3" observa tres edificios de altura que difieren del común de las construcciones tapatías. El "escenario 4" revisa dos proyectos fuera de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara. Acompañando el texto, y sumándose al valioso material gráfico que se recupera de los diferentes archivos originales, se muestran dibujos arquitectónicos, apuntes y perspectivas realizadas por el autor que evidencian la calidad espacial de los distintos proyectos. La tesis hace un llamado a la revaloración de la obra casi inédita de arquitectos excelentes que por diversas circunstancias han permanecido en un segundo plano dentro del panorama arquitectónico. En este caso se centra en profesionales completos, creadores de una arquitectura más que correcta, que desde su situación geográfica sacaron provecho de su propio bagaje cultural, filtraron las nuevas influencias y realizaron verdaderas contribuciones espaciales. ; The thesis focuses on the moment when architects in Guadalajara, Mexico, started to update their way of doing architecture. It is important to consider that Guadalajara since its foundation in 1452 had a slow development, until the 20th century arrives. Between 1945 and 1962 the number of inhabitants grew from 250.000 to 850.000. In 1970 the city had over a million and a half of inhabitants. Besides the need of new urban solutions and new housing complexes, there was the need of new infrastructure to allocate citizen's collective activities, such as theatres, libraries, markets, sport centres, churches, etc. All these new construction represented an enormous amount of work for a city that was used to grow in an almost spontaneous way and to construct buildings with local and traditional techniques. A very important precedent is that until 1948, there was no school of architecture in Guadalajara. The first part of the thesis retakes events around the foundation of the first school of architecture. Ignacio Diaz Morales, the principal, is presented as a personage concerned of introducing a reflexive meaning into the architecture education. Diaz Morales obtained support and sponsorship from the government to create that school and, to import European professionals into the new institution. The story follows the first years of this school and stands out those subjects that gave substantial contribution to the new architecture students. There is also a special interest on the leading figure of Mathias Goeritz and his "Educación Visual" class, as well as other relevant European professors such as Horst Hartung, Silvio Alberti and Eric Coufal. As a complementary text of the first chapter, there is a short journey through the urban development of Guadalajara. This journey sets up the context. It also takes us to the exact time frame when the pieces of architecture we are interested in were built. The second part of the thesis takes, as a main object of analysis, the work of those who were students and professors, either foreigners or locals, of that first school of architecture. Alejandro Zohn and Gabriel Chavez de la Mora (students), Salvador de Alba and Julio de la Peña (local professors), Eric Coufal and Horst Hartung (European professors). This suggests a way to test the value of that school, focusing on the spatial qualities of these architects contribution. The work of these architects have special interest on the relation between architectural object and the city, the instrumentalisation of new construction techniques, and a spatial experimentation through the use of geometry. In order to deeply analyse those buildings, the work of those architects is presented in four different scenarios. The first scenario presents five related samples in the same city area of intervention. The second scenario observes seven different samples dispersed around the city. The third scenario values three peculiar interventions that differ in terms of height from the rest of the city's construction. The fourth scenario reviews two different projects realized outside the metropolitan area of Guadalajara. Along the text, and adding more value to the relevant graphic material that has been recuperated from the original archives, the author contributes with architectural drawings, sketches and perspectives in order to give coherence to this thesis discourse and consequence to those projects' spatial qualities. The thesis calls for the value of those almost unknown, but excellent architects' work. Those architects, for many reasons, have always been distant of the main architectural panorama, but through a very deep observation of their spatial techniques, it is possible to find a true contribution. ; Postprint (published version)

179 páginas ; RESUMEN: La Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantías Protección S.A. nace a partir de la Ley 100 de 1993, como una empresa privada vigilada por la superintendencia Bancaria de Colombia, esta empresa se dedica a administrar los recursos de los colombianos que están cotizando a una pensión, lo que hace que la empresa reciba recursos y tenga una liquidez para invertir esos recursos y garantizar una rentabilidad mínima, esto ha causado que la empresa tenga dinero disponible para realizar inversiones que son autorizadas por ley por la Superintendencia Bancaria de Colombia. Por tal razón nosotros buscamos encontrar varias alternativas de inversión del fondo que se pudieran realizar y que realmente impulsaran el crecimiento y el desarrollo del país ó simplemente buscando mejorar la rentabilidad del fondo, encontrando, que por ejemplo, la Ley colombiana nace o se basa en la Ley Chilena de Fondos de Pensiones (Decreto Ley 3500 de 1980) y que realmente se diferencia de esta en los montos en los cuáles se puede invertir un máximo de dinero (porcentaje del fondo), viendo como en títulos públicos en Colombia se invierte el 50% del valor del fondo y en Chile es apenas del 30%, mostrando esto, que la mitad del dinero que los fondos recaudan, va a para al gobierno para pagar gasto público o deuda; también se analizo la parte concerniente a las inversiones que puede hacer la Administradora de fondos de pensiones con gobiernos extranjeros o con el gobierno nacional en asocio para obras de infraestructura, dando resultados negativos, en los cuales la única forma de llegar ese dinero es a través de títulos públicos del gobierno extranjero o del mismo gobierno colombiano; además se busca analizar la inversión que realiza el fondo en pequeñas empresas en la ciudad de Medellín dando como resultado que por ley hay unos requisitos de gestión administrativa tan complicados que acceder a ellos una pequeña empresa es casi imposible, y que en el caso remoto que pudiera acceder, la ley claramente demarca que debe ser la inversión hecha a través de la Bolsa de valores de Colombia (esta exige unos requisitos de capital), y ya en este punto sería ya si imposible llegar la inversión de los fondos a estas pequeñas empresas. En este contexto, dentro del proceso de investigación, encontramos que realmente los fondos tienen el 50% de los recursos invertidos en títulos públicos lo que hace que el gobierno tenga que buscar alternativas para que el dinero que reciben las administradoras de fondos de pensiones si llegue realmente a la inversión que produzca crecimiento y desarrollo del país. Se espera que esta investigación defina parámetros a seguir por parte de la Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantías Protección S.A. para que por voluntad propia le pase propuestas al gobierno para desarrollar un modelo de inversión en el que el riesgo sea poco, la rentabilidad se maximice, y realmente la inversión llegue a convertirse en desarrollo y crecimiento para el país. ; ABSTRACT: The Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantias Proteccion S.A. was born from Law 100 of 1993, like a private company watched over the Banking supervision of Colombia, this company is dedicated to handled the resources of the Colombians who are quoting for a pension, it means that the company receives resources and has a liquidity to invest those resources and to guarantee a minimum yield, this has caused that the company has money available to make investments that are authorized by law by the Banking Supervision of Colombia. For such reason we tried to find several alternatives of investment of the founds that could be made and that really impelled the growth and the development of the country or simply looking for to improve the yield of the bottom, finding, that for example, the Colombian Law was born or Decree is based on the Chilean Law of Bottoms of Pensions (Law 3500 of 1980) and that really difference of this in the amounts in which a maximum of money can be invested (percentage of the bottom), seeing as in titles public in Colombia Banking Supervision of Colombia is reversed to 50% of the value of the bottom (– capitulate quarter: Regime of investment of the resources of the bottoms of obligatory pensions) and in Chile is hardly of 30% (Decree Law 3500 of 1980), showing this, a half of the money that the bottoms collect, goes to stops the government to pay to public cost or debt; also the part concerning the investments was analyzed that can make the Administrator of bottoms of pensions with foreign governments or with the national government in associate for infrastructure works, giving negative results, in which the only form to arrive that money is through titles public of the foreign government or the same Colombian government; In addition one looks for to analyze the investment that the bottom makes in small companies in the city of Medellín giving like result that by law are so complicated requirements of administrative management that to accede to them a small company it is almost impossible, and that in the remote case that could accede, the law demarcates clearly that must be the investment done through stock-market of values of Colombia (this demands capital requirements), and either in this point it would be or almost impossible to arrive the investment from the bottoms at these small companies. In this context, within the investigation process, we found that really the bottoms have around half of their resources inverted in titles public (the Banking Supervision of Colombia allows until a 50% in his I capitulate quarter: Regime of investment of the resources of the bottoms of obligatory pensions of global investments), and in addition we see the behavior of the Bottom of Fixed Rent Long Term of the administrator of Fondo de Pensiones y Cesantias Proteccion S.A., which causes that the government must look for alternatives so that the money that receive the administrators of bottoms of pensions if it really arrives at the investment that produces growth and development of the country. We hope that this investigation defines parameters to follow on the part of Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantias Proteccion S.A. so that through own will it passes proposals to him to the government to develop an investment model in which the risk is little, the yield is maximized, and the investment really gets to become developing and growth for the country. ; Especialización ; Especialista en Finanzas Corporativas

La tesis se centra en el momento que Guadalajara se hizo consciente de la necesidad de actualizar su manera de hacer arquitectura. La ciudad desde su fundación, en 1452, había tenido un crecimiento paulatino, siendo hasta mediados del siglo XX que sucedió un crecimiento excesivo. Entonces imperó la necesidad de ordenar territorios y dar solución, tanto a la demanda de vivienda, como a la construcción de nueva infraestructura para satisfacer y dar cabida a las actividades colectivas de los ciudadanos tapatíos. Esto representaba una cantidad enorme de trabajo para una población que crecía sin una clara idea ciudad, y donde la manera de construir se basaba en técnicas casi artesanales. Sumado a estos factores, existe la premisa que hasta 1948 no existió una escuela de Arquitectura en Guadalajara. En la parte inicial de la tesis, se reconstruyen los acontecimientos en torno a la fundación de la primera escuela de arquitectura. La figura de Ignacio Díaz Morales, su director, se presenta como un personaje preocupado por la reflexión y la enseñanza de la profesión. Él consiguió el patrocinio del gobierno y otras autoridades para crear la escuela e importar profesores europeos que enriquecieran su perfil académico. Se hace un seguimiento de los primeros años de esta institución y de las asignaturas más significativas que motivaron un especial discernimiento. Entre estas clases se destaca Educación Visual, impartida por Mathías Goeritz durante sus primeros años en suelo mexicano, así como la aportación de otros profesores extranjeros como Silvio Alberti, Horst Hartung y Eric Coufal. Como complemento del primer capítulo se hace un breve seguimiento del crecimiento urbano de Guadalajara y se introduce el contexto en la que se construyeron los edificios que son objeto de estudio en la segunda parte de la tesis. La segunda parte de la tesis recupera la obra de los que fueron alumnos y profesores, extranjeros o locales de la primera escuela de arquitectura. Alejandro Zohn y Gabriel Chávez de la Mora (alumnos), Salvador de Alba y Julio de la Peña (profesores locales), Eric Coufal y Horst Hartung (profesores europeos). Esto sugiere lineamientos para enfocar la mirada y comprobar la calidad de la escuela a través de los edificios tapatíos. Las construcciones jaliscienses de estos arquitectos aportan especial interés en la relación del objeto arquitectónico con la ciudad, en la incorporación de nuevas tecnologías constructivas, y en la experimentación geométrica. La obra de carácter colectivo de estos seis autores conforma el objeto de estudio, la cual se analiza dentro de cuatro escenarios identificados por el tipo de intervención. El "escenario 1" presenta 5 ejemplos dentro de una misma zona. En el "escenario 2" se muestran 7 ejemplos de equipamiento disperso en diferentes partes de la ciudad. El "escenario 3" observa tres edificios de altura que difieren del común de las construcciones tapatías. El "escenario 4" revisa dos proyectos fuera de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara. Acompañando el texto, y sumándose al valioso material gráfico que se recupera de los diferentes archivos originales, se muestran dibujos arquitectónicos, apuntes y perspectivas realizadas por el autor que evidencian la calidad espacial de los distintos proyectos. La tesis hace un llamado a la revaloración de la obra casi inédita de arquitectos excelentes que por diversas circunstancias han permanecido en un segundo plano dentro del panorama arquitectónico. En este caso se centra en profesionales completos, creadores de una arquitectura más que correcta, que desde su situación geográfica sacaron provecho de su propio bagaje cultural, filtraron las nuevas influencias y realizaron verdaderas contribuciones espaciales. ; The thesis focuses on the moment when architects in Guadalajara, Mexico, started to update their way of doing architecture. It is important to consider that Guadalajara since its foundation in 1452 had a slow development, until the 20th century arrives. Between 1945 and 1962 the number of inhabitants grew from 250.000 to 850.000. In 1970 the city had over a million and a half of inhabitants. Besides the need of new urban solutions and new housing complexes, there was the need of new infrastructure to allocate citizen's collective activities, such as theatres, libraries, markets, sport centres, churches, etc. All these new construction represented an enormous amount of work for a city that was used to grow in an almost spontaneous way and to construct buildings with local and traditional techniques. A very important precedent is that until 1948, there was no school of architecture in Guadalajara. The first part of the thesis retakes events around the foundation of the first school of architecture. Ignacio Diaz Morales, the principal, is presented as a personage concerned of introducing a reflexive meaning into the architecture education. Diaz Morales obtained support and sponsorship from the government to create that school and, to import European professionals into the new institution. The story follows the first years of this school and stands out those subjects that gave substantial contribution to the new architecture students. There is also a special interest on the leading figure of Mathias Goeritz and his "Educación Visual" class, as well as other relevant European professors such as Horst Hartung, Silvio Alberti and Eric Coufal. As a complementary text of the first chapter, there is a short journey through the urban development of Guadalajara. This journey sets up the context. It also takes us to the exact time frame when the pieces of architecture we are interested in were built. The second part of the thesis takes, as a main object of analysis, the work of those who were students and professors, either foreigners or locals, of that first school of architecture. Alejandro Zohn and Gabriel Chavez de la Mora (students), Salvador de Alba and Julio de la Peña (local professors), Eric Coufal and Horst Hartung (European professors). This suggests a way to test the value of that school, focusing on the spatial qualities of these architects contribution. The work of these architects have special interest on the relation between architectural object and the city, the instrumentalisation of new construction techniques, and a spatial experimentation through the use of geometry. In order to deeply analyse those buildings, the work of those architects is presented in four different scenarios. The first scenario presents five related samples in the same city area of intervention. The second scenario observes seven different samples dispersed around the city. The third scenario values three peculiar interventions that differ in terms of height from the rest of the city's construction. The fourth scenario reviews two different projects realized outside the metropolitan area of Guadalajara. Along the text, and adding more value to the relevant graphic material that has been recuperated from the original archives, the author contributes with architectural drawings, sketches and perspectives in order to give coherence to this thesis discourse and consequence to those projects' spatial qualities. The thesis calls for the value of those almost unknown, but excellent architects' work. Those architects, for many reasons, have always been distant of the main architectural panorama, but through a very deep observation of their spatial techniques, it is possible to find a true contribution. ; Postprint (published version)

In the autumn of 2003 the County Council of Östergötland went all the way in terms of working with transparent horizontal priorities, and was the first county council in the country to do so. Preparations had then been underway for a number of years. The aim of this report is to describe the political decision making process during the work with priority setting in Östergötland in 2003, and to analyse the process based on a condition that is of importance if a decision making process is to be considered fair and legitimate. Some of the questions we initially had were: Are the politicians going to set any transparent priorities? What is the process like? What actors take part in the decisions? How do the politicians reason in order to arrive at decisions? What do the politicians take into account when making decisions? What are the obstacles to transparent priorities? What are the success factors? Our method is based on acquiring information from many sources: Direct observation at the Public Health and Medical Services Committee's (PHMSC) two practical priority setting exercises in March and in May 2003 Direct observation at the PHMSC's information meetings, working meetings and conferences, and the medical advisors' meetings during September - October 2003. Interviews with participating politicians, medical advisors, public officials, the Health Care Director, and health professionals during December 2003 - January 2004. Examination of directives, background material, supporting documents for the decisions, and internal and external documents from the county council. Focus groups and a before-after questionnaire at the citizens' meeting in January 2004. An additional study focuses on how the priority setting process was reflected in daily newspapers during the autumn of 2003. The results of this study will be reported in an upcoming report. Our observations and interviews show that the procedure for priority setting used in Östergötland functioned relatively well but that there were also shortcomings. In addition, we found that with respect to many points the decision making process fulfilled the required conditions for a decision making process to be considered fair and legitimate  reasonable and accepted by the majority  while several conditions were poorly dealt with. 1. The institution where the decisions are made In accordance with current regulations for the County Council, decisions are made by the PHMSC following recommendations from its Presidium. The priority setting decisions were made in a legitimate organisational context with a mandate to make this type of decision. 2. The persons who participated in the decisions Only politicians on the PHMSC took part in formal decision making, but during the preparatory phase with development of proposals for decisions, the Presidium of the PHMSC had the support of medical advisors, public officials, the Health Care Director, as well as administrative assistance. When making decisions, the politicians' behaviour was consistently supportive. This contributed to making a joint political decision possible despite differences in political views and different opinions. Supporting documents in the form of vertical ranking lists and descriptions of consequences were furnished by the health professionals. When developing these documents for use in decision making, however, representation of professional groups other than physicians was often missing, as was that of "users", i.e. patients and citizens. The perspectives of many interested parties were represented, while others that could have contributed were missing. 3. Factors considered in the decisions Different individual factors that shaped the decisions are found in the priority setting model that was established in the County Council. The priority setting model is based on ethical principles established by the Swedish Parliament and contains components that are important to consider in priority setting. The politicians had a high level of awareness concerning principles and factors they should consider in their decisions, but in practical discussions they seldom referred directly to individual factors in the model for priority setting. 4. Reasons for the decisions The politicians had not written down their reasons and motives at an early stage, which made transparent discussion difficult concerning both results and their underlying motives. The individual factors the politicians considered during their discussions were weighed together into different composite pictures, clusters of facts, that formed the reasons and motivations for the decisions. As a rule, reasons for decisions did not rest on individual factors, but on a total appraisal of facts. 5. The decision making process The work fulfilled a number of conditions for the decision making process itself within a decision making group that contribute to fairness. We consider that there was great transparency within the decision making group, while there was less transparency toward other politicians and toward other actors in the priority setting process. There was also relatively great outward transparency toward the public. The supporting documents and the final document were published on the Internet. Although a large part of the material was available on the Internet, few knew that it was there and could interpret and understand its content. In other words, although the material was accessible it was nevertheless "inaccessible" to the public. 6. Mechanisms for appealing decisions The intention of the County Council was that it would be possible for its first decisions to be appealed if new facts and arguments emerged. In this first round, however, there was no prepared mechanism for appealing decisions if new facts or arguments emerged. The areas where we think there is the greatest need for improvement: Representation of groups other than physicians is needed in order to elucidate problems regarding the entire care chain, from prevention to care to rehabilitation. Greater representation or dialogue with "the users", i.e. patients and citizens, is needed to obtain their perspective regarding health care policy priority setting and to assure that the priority setting procedure is considered to be fair and legitimate. However, it is necessary to identify appropriate problems about which to carry on a dialogue. An established routine in the decision making process is needed to assure that those who take part in the decisions consider all the components in the County Council's model for priority setting. Concerning transparency in the decision making process, we consider it important for supporting documents to be developed by means of an transparent internal process that includes health care staff at many levels in order to attain as high internal legitimacy as possible. Sound information must therefore be given to participants' own organisation: initially concerning the priority setting process, differentiation of roles, guidelines and timeframe; and at the conclusion of the priority setting process concerning what decisions mean in practice for the clinical areas. Guidelines for who should do what, how it should be done, and when it should be done must be clear. Information also needs to be given to the public: initially concerning how the work is carried out, and at the conclusion of the priority setting process concerning the decisions that have been made and a description of possible consequences. The information that is dispersed externally should as far as possible be well adapted and contain information about actual decisions, or preliminary positions the politicians want to convey for public debate. A mechanism for appealing decisions if new knowledge or new arguments emerge is lacking and should be created. Above all, transparency must increase with respect to decisions and reasons for decisions. The possibility of assessing and discussing priority setting decisions increases greatly if the decisions are well-motivated so that facts, values and the weighing of pros and cons are reported.

Rahapolitiikan merkitys suhdannepolitiikan työkaluna on erityisesti parin viime vuosikymmenen aikana kasvanut merkittävästi. Varsinkin kahden suurimman keskuspankin, EKP:n ja Yhdysvaltain keskuspankin, päätöksillä on kauaskantoisia vaikutuksia jotka heijastuvat koko maailmantalouteen. Tässä väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan eräitä rahapolitiikan ongelmia, jotka littyvät rahapolitiikan välittymismekanismeihin, keskuspankin tavoitteisiin sekä informaatiojoukkoon, johon perustuen keskuspankin tulisi korkopäätöksensä tehdä. Väitöskirjani koostuu johdantoluvusta ja neljästä esseestä. Ensimmäinen esseistä tarkastelee empiirisesti Yhdysvalloissa ja Saksassa tapahtuvien odottamattomien rahapolitiikan shokkien vaikutuksia ja niiden leviämistä maasta toiseen. Tutkimuksessa kiinnitetään erityistä huomiota niihin erityisongelmiin, joita liittyy rahapolitiikan shokkien identifioimiseen avoimessa taloudessa. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella havaittiin mm. että rahapolitiikan kansantuotevaikutukset ovat samansuuntaiset sekä omassa maassa, että ulkomailla. Näin ollen esimerkiksi koronnoston aiheuttamat suorat kansantuotevaikutukset näyttävät dominoivan koronnoston aiheuttaman valuuttakurssimuutoksen epäsuoria kansantuotevaikutuksia. Toisessa esseessä estimoidaan epälineaarinen rahapolitiikan päätössääntö Yhdysvaltain ja Saksan keskuspankeille Bretton Woods- järjestelmän jälkeiselle periodille ja tarkastellaan päätössäännön parametreissa mahdollisesti tapahtuneita muutoksia. Tulosten mukaan kummankin keskuspankin politiikkasäännössä on tapahtunut rakenteellisia muutoksia tarkasteluperiodin aikana. Erityisen selvästi havaittiin Yhdysvaltain keskuspankin rahapolitiikan vaihdelleen kahden vaihtoehtoisen regiimin välillä siten, että toisen regiimin aikana on kiinnitetty enemmän huomiota inflaatiotavoitteen saavuttamiseen, kun taas toisen regiimin aikana suhdannevaihteluiden tasoittaminen on ollut tärkeämpi tavoite. Toisaalta tutkimuksessa löydettiin lisää tukea aikaisemmille havainnoille, joiden mukaan estimoidut keskuspankin politiikkasääntöyhtälöt ovat herkkiä sekä estimoinneissa käytetyn aikasarja-aineiston, että politiikkasäännön täsmällisen spesifikaation suhteen. Kolmas essee tarkastelee yksinkertaisen teoreettisen mallin avulla, kannattaisiko Euroopan keskuspankin ottaa käyttöön suora valuuttakurssitavoite. Kysymys on ollut viime aikoina ajankohtainen, kun muistetaan euron kurssin melko voimakkaat vaihtelut sen käyttöönoton jälkeen. Kysymystä tarkastellaan paitsi koko rahaunionin, myös yhden pienen jäsenmaan näkökulmasta. Tällöin pienen jäsenmaan talouden on oletettu poikkeavan sekä avoimuutensa, että sen kohtaamien rakenteellisten shokkien suhteen muun unionin keskiarvoista. Näin ollen kysymyksenasettelu liittyy myös keskusteluun optimaalisen valuutta-alueen kriteereistä. Tutkimuksen tulokset toisaalta tukevat aikaisempaa näkemystä, jonka mukaan koko euroalueen talouden kannalta saavutettaisiin korkeintaan vähäisiä hyötyjä, jos valuuttakurssitavoite otettaisiin käyttöön. Pienen, taloudensa rakenteen suhteen unionin keskiarvoista poikkeavan jäsenmaan näkökulmasta valuuttakurssitavoitteen potentiaaliset hyödyt olisivat jonkin verran suuremmat. Hyödyt näkyisivät lähinnä pienempinä suhdannevaihteluina kun taas pienen maan hintavakautta ei valuuttakurssitavoitteella pystyttäisi juurikaan parantamaan. Neljännessä esseessä tutkitaan empiirisesti yksinkertaisen ennustemallin avulla, sisältääkö ns. Divisia raha-aggretaatti enemmän informaatiota euroalueen tulevasta inflaatiosta kuin perinteinen M3 raha-aggregaatti, jolle tällä hetkellä on annettu tärkeä muodollinen asema EKP:n päätöksenteossa, mutta jonka käyttöön liittyy eräitä sekä teoreettisia, että empiirisiä ongelmia. Toisin kuin perinteiset raha-aggregaatit, jotka lasketaan yksinkertaisestin komponenttiensa summana, Divisia raha-aggregaattia laskettaessa otetaan huomioon eri maksuvälineiden erilainen likvidisyyden aste. Tutkimuksessa vertaillaan ennustuskykynsä suhteen, paitsi raha-aggregaattien nimellisiä kasvuvauhteja, myös aggregaateille laskettuja kahta rahataloudellista indikaattoria, jotka mittaavat talouden reaalisen rahan määrää verrattuna sen kysyntään. Tulosten mukaan Divisia M3 raha-aggregaattiin ja siitä johdettuihin rahataloudellisiin tunnuslukuihin perustuvat inflaatioennusteet näyttäisivät olevan jonkin verran tarkempia kuin perinteiseen M3 raha-aggregaattiin perustuvat ennusteet. ; The doctoral thesis consists of an introduction and four essays that consider different aspects of conducting monetary policy in the euro area and in the US. The themes covered by the essays include, in particular, the transmission process of the monetary policy, the objectives of the central banks and the information set a central bank should consider when making its monetary policy decisions. The first essay studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks between the US and Germany. The analysis is based on estimating a structural VAR model (SVAR) of eleven variables: the short and long term interest rates, industrial productions, inflation rates and the growth rates of M3 monetary aggregate of both countries, as well as the nominal DEM/USD exchange rate. The identifying restrictions of the model are connected to the traditional open economy ISLM type models. The most important results are as follows: After a negative US monetary policy shock, the outputs of both countries decline, which contradicts the beggar-thy-neighbour result. The nominal USD appreciates against the DEM, and the long-term interest rates decline. The effects of the German monetary policy shock closely resemble the US results above. The outputs of both countries still seem to decline in both countries but surprisingly, the output effect of a monetary policy shock is greater from Germany to the US than the other way round. The DEM appreciates and the long term interest rates react with an initial rise, after which they fall. The purpose of the second essay was to study whether there were sudden changes in the parameter values of the Taylor rule type reaction function of the Federal Reserve and Bundesbank during the period 1970 ­ 1998. The reaction functions are estimated as Markov switching models with state dependent coefficients. The robustness of the results on the exact specification of the policy rule and on the measure for inflation and the output gap used in the estimation are examined by considering several alternative data sets and model specifications in the estimations. According to the results it is possible to characterize the behaviour of the Fed as a switching between two regimes with different weights put on resisting inflation and stabilizing fluctuations in output. The regimes of the Bundesbank, in turn, were classified as a regime without any response to either inflation or output gap, and a regime when the Bundesbank responded to both of the gaps. On the other hand, the results supported some previous findings according to which Taylor-type policy rule estimations are sensitive to the specification of the rule and the choice of the data. The third essay uses a a structural, quantitative macro model to investigate, whether the ECB should introduce the stabilization of the real exchange rate of the euro as one of the goals of its monetary policy. The problem is considered from the perspectives of both the whole monetary union and a single member state with a national economy more open than the union economy on average. According to the results, the member state would benefit from exchange rate stabilizing more than the rest of the union. It appears, however, that the asymmetries of the external shocks facing the economies may be a more important factor behind the greater volatility of the inflation and output of the member state than the structural differences. The fourth of the essays investigates, by means of a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, whether the synthetic Divisia M3 monetary aggregate outperforms its simple sum M3 counterpart in forecasting euro area inflation dynamics. In addition to the growth rates of the nominal money stocks, the performance of the real money gap and monetary overhang series calculated for both sort of monies are also discussed. According to the results, some of the Divisia M3 money based monetary indicators seem to contain more information about the change of the future inflation than their counterparts based on the simple sum M3 money, while none of the simple sum M3 based indicator outperformed its Divisia money counterpart. Interestingly, and in contrast to some previous findings obtained with the simple sum M3 data, the growth rate of the Divisia money yielded the best forecasts, also outperforming the real money gap and monetary overhang measures calculated for the Divisia M3 money.

Tutkimuksen kohteena on kolmen maailmanhistorian perusrakennetta käsitellen metahistorijoitsijan Yhdysvalloissa saama vastaanotto. Amerikkalaisen Brooks Adamsin pääteos The Law of Civilization and Decay ilmestyi 1896, saksalaisen Oswald Spenglerin Der Untergang des Abendlandes 1918-22(engl. The Decline of the West I-II 1926-28) ja englantilaisen Arnold J.Toynbeen 12-osainen A Study of History 1933-61. Tutkimus perustuu laajaan aikalaiskirjallisuuteen, erityisesti käsiteltävistä teoksista johtavisssa tieteellisissä ja kulttuurilehdissä julkaistuihin arviointeihin. Työ jakautuu yhdeksään päälukuun jossa esitellään kunkin globaaalihistorijoitsijan teoriat sekä aikalaisreseption avulla selvitetään em. historianfilosofien vaikutusta Yhdysvaltalaisen liberaalin eliitin tulkintaan Amerikan roolista maailmanhistoriassa. Tutkimus osoittaa, yleisellä tasolla, että aina Puritaanien maailmanreformaation ajatuksesta Francis Fukuyaman Historian loppu - teoriaan saakka globaalista historiaa koskevilla teorioilla on ollut suurempi merkitys Yhdysvalloissa kuin Euroopassa. Yhdysvaltain poliittisen eliitin piirissä erityisesti debatilla sivilisaatio-käsitteen sisällöstä on ollut keskeinen sija Amerikan maailmanpoliittisen roolin hahmottamisessa. Yhdysvaltain liberaalien näkökannan mukaan Valistuksen aatteisiin perustuva nykyaikaistuminen tuli suorittaa Yhdysvaltain johdolla ja Amerikkalaisen sivilisaation periaatteet vallitseviksi koko maailmassa. Aihe on tutkimuksen ­ ja nykyisen maailmantilanteen ymmärtämisen kannalta ajankohtainen. Yhdysvalloissa on syntynyt laaja maailmanhistoriaa kokonaisuutena käsittelevä globaalisen historian koulukunta. Tämä oppiala on noussut yleisen historian erääksi merkittävimmäksi osa-alueeksi. (Globaalinen historia pohtii senkaltaisia kysymyksiä, kuin mitkä olivat maailmanhistorian yhdistävät teemat? johtiko kadonneiden sivilisaatioiden tuhoon valloittajien sotakoneet, vai heidän mukanaan tuomansa mikrobit? johtavatko suuriksi uskonnoiksi muodostuneet aatteet sivilisaatioprosessia?. etc.) Väitöskirja selvittää osin Adamsin, Spenglerin ja Toynbeen osuutta globaalisen historian oppialan syntyyn Yhdysvalloissa. Brooks Adamsin (1848-1927) merkitys globaalisen historian ja globalisaatioteorian pioneerina on jäänyt hänen kuuluisamman historijaveljensä Henryn varjoon. Brooks Adams, Bostonilainen patriisi ja presidentti Theodore Rooseveltin taustavaikuttaja hahmotteli 1900-luvun alkuvuosikymmeninä Yhdysvaltain maailmanvallan ympärille luotavaa maailmanjärjestystä: korporaatioiden ja kovan tieteen hallitsemaa maailmaa, vapaakauppaa, sekä arvoista ja ympäristöstä riippumatonta hallintotapaa, joka on eksakti ja tehokas. Ensimmäisen maailmansodan jälkeen sivilisaatio ja kulttuuri käsitteiden uudelleenarviointi oli maailmanhistorian kirjoituksessa sen keskeisin teema. Tutkimus osoittaa myös, ensi kertaa transatalanttisessa kontekstissa, että Oswald Spenglerin Europassa 1919 kohua herättänyt Länsimaiden perikato saavutti myös Yhdysvalloissa 1920-luvun Jazz-kaudella New Yorkin älymystön piirissä suorastaan kulttimaineen New Yorkin lehdistössä Spenglerin uhkaava preussilainen hahmo oli kuin modernin aikakauden Cato, joka lupasi tuhoa amerikkalaistyyliselle massakulttuurille. Mutta 1930-luvun poliittisessa ympäristössä Yhdysvaltain johtavat liberaalit leimasivat Spenglerin yksimielisesti fasismin profeetaksi. Toisen maailmansodan jälkeen merkittävä englantilainen historiantutkija ja kansainvälisen politiikan vaikuttajan Arnold Toynbeen laaja uskonnollissävyinen sivilisaatiohistoria sekä Toynbee henkilönä nousi maineeseen ja asemaan, jota kenelläkään historioitsijalla Yhdysvalloissa ei ole ollut. Tutkimus osoittaa, että tämän Toynbee-ilmiön taustana oli toisaalta kylmän sodan alkuvaiheen uhkaava tilanne ja toisaalta Timen ja Lifen mahtavan kustantajan Henry L. Lucen innostus Toynbeeen selitykseen maailmanhistoriasta spirituaalisena prosessina eli Lucen luentana Toynbeen teoriasta Amerikasta kristillisen sivilisaation esitaistelijana. Arvostetun The Survey of International Affairs-julkaisun päätoimittajan Toynbeen vihamieliset lausunnot Yhdysvaltain ylimielisestä roolista maailmanpolitiikassa 1950-luvulla käänsivät kuitenkin amerikkalaisten uusliberaalien mielipiteet Toynbeetä vastaan. Tutkimus näyttää myös, että Toynbee on oppilaansa Chicagon yliopiston professori William McNeillin koulukunnan kautta keskeinen globaalisen historian oppi-isä. ; This dissertation deals with three metahistorians and their reception in the United States. American Brooks Adams published his main work The Law of Civilization and Decay 1896, German Oswald Spengler, Der Untergang des Abendlandes 1918-1922 (The Decline of the West, in English, 1926, 1928) and Englishman Arnold Toynbee A Study of History (12.vols. 1934-1961). The study is based on an extensive material dealing with the three world-historians, mainly in the leading scholarly [a majority in history and social sciences] and highbrow magazines, such as The New Republic and The Atlantic Monthly. The book is organized in nine main chapters, which include a summary of each thinker s theory of global history and their assessment of America s role in world-history; the chapters also explore through reception-analysis the American reaction to the major works of the three world-historians and the zeitgeist that informed the reviews. The study, in its general theme, demonstrates how world historical ideas from the Puritan idea of world reformation to Francis Fukuyama s End of History -hegemonic liberalism have been conceptualized by the American political and scholarly elite. The text argues that the liberal consensus of the definition of the term civilization consists in the United States mainly of modernization and Enlightenment values which are expected to bring positive changes to the world through emancipation, freedom, and material affluence. This progressive description of the liberal paradigm which the pessimistic metahistories, and the prophets of decline, in spite of their brief popularity in the U.S. tried to depose could not, in the final analysis, be defeated. The study also argues that, because of its perennial concern for civilization [the American political elite from Franklin D.Roosevelt to George W. Bush use the term, in defining their world-political agendas] the United States has been more receptive to world historical explanations than Europe. Furthermore the study is important, because in the United States world-history, as an academic discipline, has returned to university curriculums. World history draws its basic agenda partly from the metahistorians, by asking questions, like: why did great civilizations collapse? what is the role of the great religions in world history? what is the role of technological modernization in the global change?. As a pioneer of global history and globalization theory Brooks Adams (1848-1927) has not received up-dated attention from contemporary scholarship. The dissertation demonstrates how the Boston patrician partly outlined technocratic and activist policies, which his friend president Theodore Roosevelt used in order to create the American superpower. The book also demonstrates how Adams was also a pioneer in the field of global history and globalization theory, who paved the way for subsequent efforts. After the First World War the revaluation of the concepts of civilization and culture was the central theme of world-history. The breakthrough from Victorian optimism to a modernist post-war gloom focused attention to Oswald Spengler s famous world-historical interpretation The Decline of the West. The argument demonstrates in the transatlantic context, that also the cynical and disillusioned Jazz Age, Smart Set New Yorkers accepted Spengler as the prophet, who doomed the 1920s American spending spree and its mass- culture. When the political context changed in the 1930s the same New York liberals condemned Spengler as a precursor of the Nazi-movement. After the Second World War British historian, and respected expert in international politics, Arnold Toynbee and his large, spiritually flavoured, world historical synthesis A Study of History rose to the status in the United States that hardly any historian, or theory of history, has achieved. The study shows that behind this Toynbee phenomenon was, on the other hand the threatening situation at beginning of the Cold War 1947, on the other hand the enthusiasm of the Time-Life-Fortune publisher Henry Luce, who presented him as a prophet of the American Century and in Luce s American reading of Toynbee s theory also as a defender of the Christian civilization. When Toynbee s opinions turned against American foreign policy, in the1950 s, and his religiosity into syncretism, American New Liberals opinion turned heavily against the superhistorian. The study shows also that through his pupil William McNeill, and his Chicago school of world- historians, Toynbee is one of the founders of the contemporary discipline of world-history writing.