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Associate Director of Global Networks and Inclusion Maya Ranganath reflects on the goals, outcomes, and key learnings of this summer's 11th annual Africa Evidence Summit in Nairobi. The Summit would not be possible without our partners: the Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and many others mentioned in the post below.https://medium.com/media/f17cd8514f9c798ca99f083c6c2054d7/hrefLow and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) disproportionately experience the world's greatest challenges — climate change, food security, and rampant inequality. Effective solutions to these problems must be evidence-informed and inclusive of scholars living in these countries. However, many LMICs face a shortage of researchers — only two percent of the world's research output is produced by African scholars. The evidence-informed policy community has marshaled significant momentum to address this problem and invest in LMIC research infrastructure. In fact, a recent report from the Center for Global Development identified a 26 percent increase in organizations with impact evaluation capacity since 2019. The Africa Evidence Summit, co-hosted by CEGA and the Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa (NIERA) this summer, further showcased this progress.Now with more than a decade of momentum, the Summit returned to Nairobi for its largest gathering yet: In a signal of the demand for more rigorous and locally-led evidence on what works to combat poverty, more than 500 researchers, policymakers, and practitioners attended. As every year, the Summit had four goals:Elevate the voices of African scholarsDisseminate new research findings to decision-makersSeed new collaborationsGenerate insights to advance evidence-informed policymaking and, specifically, ways to make the ecosystem more inclusiveTo this end, the Summit featured 21 research presentations from CEGA affiliated faculty, our fellows network, and partners (see here for a full list of presentations). It also included several panels that focused on meta-themes, including:Incentives, resources, and pathways for African-led publicationFunder perspectives on supporting African-led researchSupporting pro-poor growth in sub-Saharan Africa (led by event partner African Economic Research Consortium)Centering African voices in policy-making and advocacy (led by event partner Afrobarometer)Below we present some key insights from the event. Please see our takeaways document for more information.Evidence must be generated by, and in partnership with, local researchers…"To claim the 21st century as the turning point for Africa, African experts and scholars should step up to define, own, and drive the continent's development agenda," said Dr. Eliya Zulu, Executive Director of the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), in his keynote address.Summit co-host NIERA (comprised of alumni of CEGA's fellowship program) is leading this movement as the first all-African network of evidence generators. But greater investment is needed.As Rose Oronje, AFIDEP Director of Public Policy and Knowledge Translation and Head of Kenya Office, discussed, the low rate of publications by African scholars reflects a need for greater investments by governments in research infrastructure. Constantine Manda, 2012 CEGA Fellow and Assistant Professor at UC Irvine added, "We need to reform our institutions — for not just the number of publications, but the quality of them." "The incentive structure is broken and something needs to change," noted Chris Chibwana, Program Officer at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.…which requires re-aligning incentives, investing in research capacity, and collaborating.A variety of solutions were proposed. Oronje suggested including more editors from Africa on journals, "as they will be looking at research differently because they understand the context." Aurelia Munene, founder of Eider Africa, proposed engaging NGOs to complement African universities, training new faculty on supervision, and "providing researchers with a sense of belonging." Jordan Kyongo, Head of the East Africa Research & Innovation Hub at the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), added that "universities must support an enabling environment for students to [become] researchers." Manda urged scholars in high-income countries to "ask for invitations to present work to an African audience" to expose students to new research methods, insights, and questions.In this vein, collaboration is not only an important driver of innovation but also the keystone in inclusive evidence generation. The growing group of impact evaluators, big data researchers, and other evidence generators in LMICs relies on a close-knit community for intellectual partnership, capacity building, evidence dissemination, and funding. Indeed, the Summit would not have succeeded without its local partners (NIERA, AFIDEP, Afrobarometer, AERC, Busara, among others) and the many talented researchers who presented posters.From left to right: CEGA Fellows Jonathan Izudi, Bezawit Bahru, and Michel Ndayikeza listen to a presentation at AES 2023 | Luft VenturesEvidence is essential, but insufficient alone, for policy changeThe summit featured many research studies aimed to assist decision-makers to support vulnerable communities. A few highlights include:CEGA Faculty Co-Director Ted Miguel's study on the intergenerational impacts of child health investments in East Africa, which shows that deworming school children decreases under-five mortality in the children of those dewormed by one-fifth.A randomized control trial presented by Youth Impact's Thato Letsomo demonstrated that the ConnectEd intervention, which sends children a weekly math problem and provides tutoring phone calls, improved learning in Uganda by more than a standard year of schooling.University of Ghana's Edward Asiedu's study found that providing patients with information on their insurance coverage reduces their out-of-pocket expenditure on health.2021 CEGA Fellow Mary Nantongo's early-stage design to evaluate the impact of Uganda's Parish Development Model on the poverty levels, incomes, and participation in decision-making of beneficiary households.However, Dr. Zulu made a powerful point, saying "Evidence is essential, but not sufficient for policy. Researchers need to understand the key people and decisions being made in order to help." Building on this, Tricia Ryan from USAID led a presentation on evidence gap maps, a visual tool that identifies where more evidence is needed on a particular research subject. 2020 CEGA Fellow and Director of Research at the International Center for Evaluation and Development (ICED) Solomon Zena Walelign presented his evidence gap map, which found that more research is needed on how infrastructure interacts with the nutritional needs of people in LMICs, especially women, girls, and low-income consumers.CEGA's long history of working to shift norms in development economics toward greater leadership by African scholars has produced significant results. The Africa Evidence Summit reflects that growth, and we are excited to harness this community's momentum to advance our shared goals. Sign up for our Global Networks newsletter to hear first about next year's Summit.Supporting an inclusive evidence ecosystem: Insights from the 2023 Africa Evidence Summit was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
Premi extraordinari doctorat curs 2011-2012, àmbit d'Enginyeria Civil ; El impacto de la contaminación del aire es un tema crítico para el medioambiente y el clima. Una mala calidad del aire es un tema de importancia para la salud pública, especialmente en ambientes urbanos. El material particulado (PM), el ozono (O3) y el dióxido de nitrógeno (NO2) son los contaminantes más problemáticos en Europa y España. La Comisión Europea ha mostrado una gran preocupación por desarrollar técnicas que permitan incrementar el conocimiento sobre la dinámica de los contaminantes atmosféricos para asegurar el cumplimiento de la legislación y para informar a la población acerca de sus niveles. Además, la directiva europea 2008/50/CE establece la posibilidad de usar técnicas de modelización para informar sobre calidad del aire. Esta tesis doctoral está desarrollada en el marco de dos proyectos: El proyecto CALIOPE y el proyecto CICYT CGL2006-08903, ambos basados en la necesidad de desarrollar un sistema de calidad del aire que permita informar y entender los niveles de contaminación en Europa y España, con el objetivo de obtener un preciso pronóstico de la calidad del aire. Con ese propósito, el sistema de modelización CALIOPE se ha desarrollado con alta resolución espacial y temporal sobre Europa (12 km x 12 km y 15 capas, 1 hora), dominio madre, y España (4 km x 4 km y 15 capas, 1 hora), dominio anidado. CALIOPE consiste en un conjunto de modelos que tienen en cuenta la contaminación tanto antropogénica como natural. La disponibilidad del supercomputador MareNostrum, alojado en el Barcelona Supercomputer Center- Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, ha permitido trabajar a tan alta resolución. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es aumentar la confianza científica en el sistema CALIOPE, identificando sus puntos fuertes y débiles con un nivel de detalle que contribuya a establecer necesidades de mejora en el proceso de modelización. Por tanto, el presente trabajo ha evaluado espacial y temporalmente las simulaciones de calidad del aire sobre Europa y España en términos de O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 y PM10 en superficie sobre el año completo 2004. Para identificar el origen de las incertidumbres en la modelización del PM, su composición química ha sido también evaluada en ambos dominios. Las evaluaciones han sido realizadas sobre más de 150 estaciones de calidad del aire (más de 2 millones de datos experimentales). Además, esta tesis ha usado el sistema CALIOPE para analizar los patrones de calidad del aire sobre 2004, identificando claramente las áreas de contaminación. Las ideas más importantes que se desprenden de esta tesis son tres. Primero, las condiciones de contorno químicas basadas en un modelo global, como el LMDz-INCA2, son esenciales para modelizar el O3 troposférico sobre los dominios de estudio. Segundo, para simular la concentración de PM en el sur de Europa, tanto a escala rural como urbana, la contribución de polvo procedente del desierto del Sahara deber ser considerada debido a la proximidad al continente africano. La contribución del polvo del desierto a través del modelo BSC-DREAM8b ayuda satisfactoriamente a modelizar los picos de PM10 observados. Tercero, para ser capaz de modelizar la calidad del aire a escala urbana sobre España es esencial (1) una alta resolución espacial y temporal que permita describir fenómenos mesoescalares en áreas de topografía compleja , (2) un modelo de emisiones altamente desagregado como HERMES; (3) unos modelos que representen el estado actual del conocimiento en meteorología y química atmosférica ; The impact of air pollution is a critical topic in environment and climate. Poor air quality is an important public health issue, especially in urban environments. Particulate matter (PM), tropospheric ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are the main problematic pollutants in Europe and Spain. The European Commission has shown a great concern for developing actions that allow increasing the knowledge on dynamics of atmospheric pollutants to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about their levels. The European directive 2008/50/EC establishes the possibility of using modelling techniques to assess air quality. This Ph.D. thesis is developed in the framework of two projects: the CALIOPE project and the CGL2006-08903 CICYT project, both based on the necessity to develop an air quality modelling system that allows assessing and understanding the air pollution levels in Europe and Spain, with the aim of obtaining a precise air quality forecast. For that purpose, the CALIOPE air quality modelling system has been developed with high spatial and temporal resolution over Europe (12 km x 12 km, 1 h), as a mother domain; and Spain (4 km x 4 km, 1 h), as the nested domain. The CALIOPE system consists in a set of models that take into account both anthropogenic and natural pollution. The availability of the MareNostrum supercomputer, held in Barcelona Supercomputing Center- Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, has allowed such configuration of the CALIOPE system. The main objective of the present Ph.D. thesis is to increase the scientific confidence on the CALIOPE system, identifying skills and weakness with a degree of detail that contributes to establish necessities of improvements in the modelling process. Therefore, the present work has spatially and temporally evaluated CALIOPE air quality simulations over Europe and Spain in terms of O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10 concentrations over the full year 2004. In order to identify the origin of uncertainties in PM modelling, PM chemical composition has been also evaluated in both target domains. Evaluations have been performed across more than 150 air quality-monitoring stations and over more than 2 million of experimental data. Furthermore, this Ph.D. thesis has used the CALIOPE system to assess air quality pattern over the year 2004, identifying clearly the areas of air pollution. There are three major thrusts of the present Ph.D. thesis. First, chemical boundary condition based on a global model, such as LMDz-INCA2, becomes essential to model O3 background concentrations in the target domains. Second, to simulate PM concentration in southern Europe, both regional and urban scales, the contribution of dust from the Saharan desert should be taken into account, since that region is frequently affected by dust outbreaks due to its proximity to the African continent. The contribution of desert dust through the BSC-DREAM8b helps to satisfactory model the observed episodic PM10 concentration peaks. Even more, the contribution of sea-salt aerosol is especially important over coastal areas. Third, to be able to model the air quality in urban scale over Spain it is essential (1) a high spatial (4 km x 4 km and 15 layers) and temporal (1h) resolution that allows describing mesoscale phenomena in very complex terrains; (2) a high disaggregated emission model to describe the sources, such as HERMES; and (3) an state-of-the-science meteorological and chemical models. This Ph.D. thesis has demonstrated that CALIOPE system applied over Europe and Spain is a useful tool which may contribute to (1) forecast air pollution in urban/suburban areas with a pervasive influence of anthropogenic emissions on a local scale and over very complex terrains and meteorology patterns; (2) assess about air pollution, discriminating between anthropogenic and natural episodes; and (3) manage air pollution, by means of modification of urban strategies or requirements of the legislation. ; Award-winning ; Postprint (published version)
Premi extraordinari doctorat curs 2011-2012, àmbit d'Enginyeria Civil ; El impacto de la contaminación del aire es un tema crítico para el medioambiente y el clima. Una mala calidad del aire es un tema de importancia para la salud pública, especialmente en ambientes urbanos. El material particulado (PM), el ozono (O3) y el dióxido de nitrógeno (NO2) son los contaminantes más problemáticos en Europa y España. La Comisión Europea ha mostrado una gran preocupación por desarrollar técnicas que permitan incrementar el conocimiento sobre la dinámica de los contaminantes atmosféricos para asegurar el cumplimiento de la legislación y para informar a la población acerca de sus niveles. Además, la directiva europea 2008/50/CE establece la posibilidad de usar técnicas de modelización para informar sobre calidad del aire. Esta tesis doctoral está desarrollada en el marco de dos proyectos: El proyecto CALIOPE y el proyecto CICYT CGL2006-08903, ambos basados en la necesidad de desarrollar un sistema de calidad del aire que permita informar y entender los niveles de contaminación en Europa y España, con el objetivo de obtener un preciso pronóstico de la calidad del aire. Con ese propósito, el sistema de modelización CALIOPE se ha desarrollado con alta resolución espacial y temporal sobre Europa (12 km x 12 km y 15 capas, 1 hora), dominio madre, y España (4 km x 4 km y 15 capas, 1 hora), dominio anidado. CALIOPE consiste en un conjunto de modelos que tienen en cuenta la contaminación tanto antropogénica como natural. La disponibilidad del supercomputador MareNostrum, alojado en el Barcelona Supercomputer Center- Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, ha permitido trabajar a tan alta resolución. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es aumentar la confianza científica en el sistema CALIOPE, identificando sus puntos fuertes y débiles con un nivel de detalle que contribuya a establecer necesidades de mejora en el proceso de modelización. Por tanto, el presente trabajo ha evaluado espacial y temporalmente las simulaciones de calidad del aire sobre Europa y España en términos de O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 y PM10 en superficie sobre el año completo 2004. Para identificar el origen de las incertidumbres en la modelización del PM, su composición química ha sido también evaluada en ambos dominios. Las evaluaciones han sido realizadas sobre más de 150 estaciones de calidad del aire (más de 2 millones de datos experimentales). Además, esta tesis ha usado el sistema CALIOPE para analizar los patrones de calidad del aire sobre 2004, identificando claramente las áreas de contaminación. Las ideas más importantes que se desprenden de esta tesis son tres. Primero, las condiciones de contorno químicas basadas en un modelo global, como el LMDz-INCA2, son esenciales para modelizar el O3 troposférico sobre los dominios de estudio. Segundo, para simular la concentración de PM en el sur de Europa, tanto a escala rural como urbana, la contribución de polvo procedente del desierto del Sahara deber ser considerada debido a la proximidad al continente africano. La contribución del polvo del desierto a través del modelo BSC-DREAM8b ayuda satisfactoriamente a modelizar los picos de PM10 observados. Tercero, para ser capaz de modelizar la calidad del aire a escala urbana sobre España es esencial (1) una alta resolución espacial y temporal que permita describir fenómenos mesoescalares en áreas de topografía compleja , (2) un modelo de emisiones altamente desagregado como HERMES; (3) unos modelos que representen el estado actual del conocimiento en meteorología y química atmosférica ; The impact of air pollution is a critical topic in environment and climate. Poor air quality is an important public health issue, especially in urban environments. Particulate matter (PM), tropospheric ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are the main problematic pollutants in Europe and Spain. The European Commission has shown a great concern for developing actions that allow increasing the knowledge on dynamics of atmospheric pollutants to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about their levels. The European directive 2008/50/EC establishes the possibility of using modelling techniques to assess air quality. This Ph.D. thesis is developed in the framework of two projects: the CALIOPE project and the CGL2006-08903 CICYT project, both based on the necessity to develop an air quality modelling system that allows assessing and understanding the air pollution levels in Europe and Spain, with the aim of obtaining a precise air quality forecast. For that purpose, the CALIOPE air quality modelling system has been developed with high spatial and temporal resolution over Europe (12 km x 12 km, 1 h), as a mother domain; and Spain (4 km x 4 km, 1 h), as the nested domain. The CALIOPE system consists in a set of models that take into account both anthropogenic and natural pollution. The availability of the MareNostrum supercomputer, held in Barcelona Supercomputing Center- Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, has allowed such configuration of the CALIOPE system. The main objective of the present Ph.D. thesis is to increase the scientific confidence on the CALIOPE system, identifying skills and weakness with a degree of detail that contributes to establish necessities of improvements in the modelling process. Therefore, the present work has spatially and temporally evaluated CALIOPE air quality simulations over Europe and Spain in terms of O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10 concentrations over the full year 2004. In order to identify the origin of uncertainties in PM modelling, PM chemical composition has been also evaluated in both target domains. Evaluations have been performed across more than 150 air quality-monitoring stations and over more than 2 million of experimental data. Furthermore, this Ph.D. thesis has used the CALIOPE system to assess air quality pattern over the year 2004, identifying clearly the areas of air pollution. There are three major thrusts of the present Ph.D. thesis. First, chemical boundary condition based on a global model, such as LMDz-INCA2, becomes essential to model O3 background concentrations in the target domains. Second, to simulate PM concentration in southern Europe, both regional and urban scales, the contribution of dust from the Saharan desert should be taken into account, since that region is frequently affected by dust outbreaks due to its proximity to the African continent. The contribution of desert dust through the BSC-DREAM8b helps to satisfactory model the observed episodic PM10 concentration peaks. Even more, the contribution of sea-salt aerosol is especially important over coastal areas. Third, to be able to model the air quality in urban scale over Spain it is essential (1) a high spatial (4 km x 4 km and 15 layers) and temporal (1h) resolution that allows describing mesoscale phenomena in very complex terrains; (2) a high disaggregated emission model to describe the sources, such as HERMES; and (3) an state-of-the-science meteorological and chemical models. This Ph.D. thesis has demonstrated that CALIOPE system applied over Europe and Spain is a useful tool which may contribute to (1) forecast air pollution in urban/suburban areas with a pervasive influence of anthropogenic emissions on a local scale and over very complex terrains and meteorology patterns; (2) assess about air pollution, discriminating between anthropogenic and natural episodes; and (3) manage air pollution, by means of modification of urban strategies or requirements of the legislation. ; Award-winning ; Postprint (published version)
Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. ; This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). LGA has received support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. OOA acknowledges the Department of Science and Innovation, National Research Foundation, and DSI/NRF Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa. SMAl acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. HTA acknowledges Aksum University. MAu and CH are partly supported by a grant from the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. AAz acknowledges funding from the Gates Foundation (OPP1171700). ABad is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; the EU; the Wellcome Trust; and from National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01-HD084233), National Institute on Aging of NIH (P01AG041710), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of NIH (R01-AI124389 and R01-AI112339), as well as Fogarty International Center of NIH (D43-TW009775). DABen was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. GBB is supported by Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI) de la Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT) of Panamá. FCar acknowledges UID/ MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior through national funds. VMC acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. JDN acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DBD acknowledges support from the Gates Foundation. KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust grant (number 201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. AGo acknowledges Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panamá (SNI), Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). CH is partly supported by a grant co-funded by European Fund for Regional Development through the Operational Program for Competitiveness (project ID P_40_382). SMSI is funded by a Fellowship from National Heart Foundation of Australia and Deakin University. MJ and the Serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-funded through grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. JK is a recipient of the 2020 Benjamin V Cohen Peace Fellowship from Ball State University Center for Peace and Conflict Studies. YJK's work was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia, grants number XMUMRF/2018-C2/ ITCM/0001. KKr is supported by a DST PURSE grant and UGC Center of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. BL acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. PTNM acknowledges the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa. ANA acknowledges Debre Markos University for its support in-terms of office and internet access while reviewing this paper. AMSam received a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission programme. MMS-M acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). AShi acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. MRS acknowledges the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital, Kermanshah university of Medical sciences for their wise advice. JBS is part of Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain. RT-S was supported in part by grant PI17/00719 from Instituto de Salud Carlos III–FEDER. BU acknowledges Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. TWij acknowledges the Migraine Foundation Australia and the Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Rajarata, Saliyapura, Anuradhapuraya, Sri Lanka. CSW was supported by the South African Medical Research Council. SBZ received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. ; publishedVersion
Rural-urban migration is increasingly becoming an important livelihood strategy in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Tanzania, and is in many ways viewed as a driving force behind the rapid urbanisation process within this region. Despite urbanisation being associated with benefits such as trade stimulation and the subsequent increase in governments' revenue, it is also accompanied by threats such as higher commodity prices, unemployment, alarming crime rates, inadequate shelter and governments' unpreparedness to combat them. Maasai nomadic pastoralist youth, who started migrating to urban areas on a large scale from the 1990s onwards, are disadvantaged in many ways owing to their cultural, social, economic and political marginalisation since colonial times. In this context, important yet controversial questions include: What migration-related threats are likely experienced by the Maasai migrant youth and local households? How do they cope with these threats; indeed, do they manage to cope? How can migrants and households' capacities be strengthened to more competently cope with such threats? To tackle the above-posed questions, this study explored the influences of the rural-urban migration of Maasai nomadic pastoralist youth on the resilience of both the migrants in Dar es Salaam and local households in Ngorongoro District, Northern Tanzania. It specifically documented factors for and patterns of the rural-urban migration of the Maasai nomadic pastoralist youth, investigating the impact of rural-urban migration on the local households' resilience and analysing migration-related threats encountered by the migrants in urban areas, as well as their coping strategies. Finally, this thesis suggests factors for enhancing migrants and households' resilience against migration-related threats. A myriad of migration theories was employed to understand factors behind migration patterns, while the multi-layered social resilience framework of (Obrist et al. 2010) was deemed suitable to explore migration-related threats for migrants and households, as well as their strategies of coping with them. A qualitative approach was adopted, although data was both qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. Respondents were both randomly and purposely selected and in-depth interviews were conducted with 50 Maasai migrants, 30 households and 30 key informants, including private and public institutional officials and community members at various levels in Dar es Salaam and Ngorongoro. In addition, five focus group discussions (FGDs), observations and the review of secondary data were also carried out. The study revealed that Maasai migrant youth have been migrating to Dar es Salaam city mainly due to the household poverty emanating from the decline of pastoralism and agriculture, prompted by climate change, insufficient access to land, livestock diseases, unemployment and resource conflicts. Rural-urban migration was catalysed by inconsistent land and development policies, social networks, migrants and households' aspirations and technology, notably improved communication and transportation networks such as mobile phones and road networks. Migration both positively and negatively influenced the households' resilience. For instance, remittances from migrants enhanced households' economic capital (notably livestock and agriculture), cultural capital such as food and health support, various household equipment and the improvement of formal education and skills. On the other hand, migration also subjected some households to threats related to financial constrains, inadequate human power and food insecurity. Household members coped with such threats by depending on informal affiliations (social capital), taking on extra work load, child labour and engaging in entrepreneurship activities (cultural capital), mainly at individual, household and community levels. However, they could rarely solicit support from meso, national and international levels. Threats experienced by the Maasai migrants in Dar es Salaam chiefly concerned inadequate income and shelter, unemployment, oppression and exploitation, notably low and delayed labour returns and arbitrary job terminations, stigma and segregation, together with physical insecurity, notably falling victim to crime when working as security guards, typically due to a lack of proper equipment and security training. On the one hand, migrants managed to solicit and utilise capitals from different social layers, thus developing 'reactive' and to a lesser extent 'proactive' capacities to competently cope with the aforementioned migration-related threats. Specifically, migrants competently coped with the threats by utilising cultural capital at the individual level, such as migrants' local knowledge and physical strength. They employed social capital at community and household levels, particularly rural-urban linkages and strong social networks among migrants, which enabled the sharing of resources such as food, finance shelter and working in groups to cope with the insecurity threat. To a lesser degree, migrants also employed aspects of economic capital such as livestock and agricultural products at the household level, as well as symbolic capital such as the Maasai social reputation and identity springing from Maasai culture and local traditions. However, both the Maasai migrants and household members lacked formal skills and education, as well as structures that could support resilience building at meso, regional and national levels. Thus, equipping Maasai migrants and households with formal skills, the changing of land tenure policies and making government and private institutions more responsive to the migration threats affecting Maasai can significantly improve both the Maasai migrants and local households' resilience against such threats. ; Die Land-Stadt-Migration als wichtige Strategie der Überlebenssicherung und als treibende Kraft der schnellen Urbanisierung gewinnt zunehmend an Bedeutung in Subsahara-Afrika, besonders in Tansania. Auch wenn die Urbanisierung Vorteile wie ein schnelleres Wirtschaftswachstum und folglich höhere Staatseinnahmen mit sich bringt, so ist sie auch mit negativen Auswirkungen wie höheren Preisen für Lebensmittel, Arbeitslosigkeit, wachsender Kriminalität, mangelndem Wohnraum und der unzureichenden Vorbereitung der Regierungen, um diese zu bekämpfen, verbunden. Die jugendlichen Maasai, die insbesondere seit den 1990er Jahren in großem Stil in die Städte ziehen, sind in besonderem Maße kulturell, sozial, ökonomisch und politisch marginalisiert. In diesem Zusammenhang stellen sich einige wichtige, wenn auch kontroverse Fragen: Welche im Migrationskontext auftauchenden Bedrohungen sind dabei besonders relevant für die migrierenden Jugendlichen und die lokalen Haushalte? Kommen sie mit diesen zurecht und wenn ja, wie? Wie können die Kapazitäten der Migranten und Haushalte gestärkt werden, um diese besser zu bewältigen? Um die hier gestellten Fragen zu beantworten, wurden in dieser Arbeit die Einflüsse der Land-Stadt-Migration auf die Resilienz der Migranten in Dar es Salaam und der Haushalte im Ngorongoro District in Tansania untersucht. Besonderes Augenmerk lag dabei auf Faktoren für und Muster von Land-Stadt-Migration. Darüber hinaus wurden die Auswirkungen der Migration auf die Resilienz der Haushalte in Ngorongoro sowie die im Zusammenhang mit der Migration entstehenden Bedrohungen für die Migranten und deren Bewältigungsstrategien untersucht. Abschließend werden Empfehlungen zur Stärkung der Resilienz der Migranten gegeben. Eine Vielzahl von Migrationstheorien beschäftigt sich mit der Erklärung von Migrationsmustern. In dieser Arbeit wurden diese durch das von (Obrist et al. 2010) entwickelte Multi-layered social resilience framework ergänzt, um die im Zusammenhang mit der Migration entstehenden Bedrohungen für die Migranten und Haushalte und die jeweiligen Bewältigungsstrategien zu untersuchen. Dabei wurde ein qualitativer Zugang gewählt. Die Daten wurden darüber hinaus jedoch auch quantitativ ausgewertet. Die Befragten wurden teilweise zufällig, teilweise gezielt ausgewählt. In Dar es Salaam und Ngorongoro wurden ausführliche Interviews mit insgesamt 50 Migranten, 30 Haushalten und 30 Experten – darunter Offizielle aus privaten und öffentlichen Einrichtungen sowie Gemeinschaftsmitglieder verschiedener Ebenen – durchgeführt. Zusätzlich fanden fünf Gruppendiskussionen, Beobachtungen und eine Analyse von Sekundärdaten statt. Durch diese Studie konnte gezeigt werden, dass die jugendlichen Maasai insbesondere wegen der Armut im Herkunftsgebiet nach Dar es Salaam zogen. Diese ist insbesondere bedingt durch den mit dem Klimawandel zusammenhängenden Niedergang des Pastoralismus und der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion, unzureichenden Zugang zu Land, Tierseuchen, Arbeitslosigkeit und Ressourcenkonflikte. Die Land-Stadt Migration wurde dabei durch inkonsistente Land- und Entwicklungspolitiken, soziale Netzwerke, Sehnsüchte und technologischen Fortschritt – wie verbesserte Kommunikation und Transportnetzwerke – beschleunigt. Es konnten positive wie negative Auswirkungen der Migration auf die Resilienz der Haushalte festgestellt werden. Einerseits verbesserten Geldsendungen durch die Migranten das ökonomische (insbesondere im landwirtschaftlichen Bereich) und das soziale Kapital der Haushalte (Nahrung, Gesundheit, Bildung). Andererseits wurden die Haushalte durch die Migration neuen Bedrohungen, wie finanziellen Einschränkungen, fehlender Arbeitskraft und Ernährungsunsicherheit, ausgesetzt. Die Haushaltsmitglieder bewältigten diese durch informelle Netzwerke (soziales Kapital), zusätzliche Arbeit, Kinderarbeit und unternehmerische Tätigkeit (kulturelles Kapital) besonders auf der individuellen, der Haushalts- und Gemeindeebene. Nur in seltenen Fällen konnte dagegen auf Unterstützung durch die meso-, nationale und internationale Ebene zurückgegriffen werden. Die für die Migranten in Dar es Salaam relevanten Bedrohungen waren ungenügende Einkommen und Wohnsituation, Arbeitslosigkeit, Unterdrückung und Ausbeutung (z.B. geringe oder verspätete Entlohnung, willkürliche Entlassung, Stigmatisierung und Segregation) und physische Unsicherheit. Die Migranten konnten Kapital aus verschiedenen sozialen Ebenen (social layers) nutzen und damit 'reaktive' und zu einem geringeren Grad auch 'proaktive' Kapazität entwickeln, um mit den beschriebenen Bedrohungen umgehen zu können. In vielen Fällen schafften es die Migranten durch die Nutzung des kulturellen Kapitals auf der individuellen Ebene, beispielsweise des lokalen Wissens und der physischen Stärke, diese Bedrohungen zu bewältigen. Darüber hinaus machten sie sich das soziale Kapital auf Gemeinschafts- und Haushaltsebene zu Nutze. Hier sind insbesondere die engen Land-Stadt-Beziehungen und starke soziale Netzwerke zwischen den Migranten zu nennen, die das Teilen von Nahrung, finanziellen Mitteln, Unterkunft und Arbeiten in der Gruppe ermöglichten. In geringerem Maße griffen sie auf ökonomisches Kapital, wie Viehbestand und landwirtschaftliche Produktion, sowie auf symbolisches Kapital, wie die Maasai-Kultur und die damit verbundenen Traditionen, zurück. Die migrierten Maasai und die im Ursprungsgebiet verbliebenen Haushalte hatten jedoch nur ein geringes Maß an formeller Qualifikationen und Ausbildung, sowie unzureichende Strukturen zur Stärkung ihrer Resilienz auf der Meso-, Regional- und Nationalebene. Daher werden die Verbesserung ihrer Ausbildungssituation, die Anpassung von Landnutzungspolitiken und eine verstärkte Sensibilisierung öffentlicher und privater Organisationen für die Probleme der Maasai als wichtige Ansätze zur Stärkung ihrer Resilienz angesehen.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU's (African Union's) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only "about" data, but which "is" data. According to an article by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), "At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge." Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is "trust" – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. "This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy", says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect 2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect 3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa) project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly), have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high-performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during 17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management. ; Department of Science & Innovation (DSI); National Research Foundation (NRF)
Global land-use change is a main driver of two of the biggest environmental alterations threatening human well-being: climate change and the decline in biodiversity. Over recent decades, a growing and wealthier population has requested more agricultural products, and this demand has been satisfied by expanding agricultural areas and intensifying production. However, this has posed consequences. As new fields and pastures replaced tropical forests, some of the most biodiverse habitats have been destroyed, and as tropical forests are among the ecosystems with the highest carbon content, their loss has also significantly contributed to global climate change. The pathway of global land use towards the future remains unclear, but with the projected rise in the global population and the consequent greater demand for food in addition to newly emerging requests for agricultural energy production and land-based climate change mitigation, the pressure on land will likely increase. This thesis conceptualises scenarios of future land use, identifies probable future developments and analyses policies that might help to steer land use in a more environmentally friendly direction. Forests and how their future extent influences climate and biodiversity are central to this thesis. It assesses policies of a price on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change and an expansion of protected areas, as well as the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation and intensification. This paper seeks to more concretely determine the expected amount of tropical deforestation until the middle of the century and measures to reduce it. It additionally focuses specifically on tropical biodiversity hotspots and methods to conserve them through the designation of protected areas and agricultural intensification. Furthermore, it considers the carbon sequestration potential of large-scale afforestation and its potential effect on food prices. The study employs a global economic land-use model to assess potential future developments. The Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) produces patterns of global land use for a given demand for agricultural products by minimising costs of agricultural production. To analyse the research questions at hand, the model was modified and amended in several aspects. This thesis shows that the assumed increase in demand for agricultural products will lead to an expansion of croplands, at least until the middle of the century. More than 400 million hectares (Mha) of cropland may be newly established between 2015 and 2050. Continuous loss of forests and other natural vegetation is likely to accompany this if no adequate policies come into force. In a study focusing on the tropical deforestation, deforestation amounts to 140 Mha in Latin America, 64 Mha in Sub-Saharan Africa and 24 Mha in Pacific Asia between 2010 and 2050 in the reference case. Without pasture intensification and further trade liberalisation, land-use change could cause cumulative emissions of more than 100 Gt CO2 until the middle of the century, and it will also affect areas that are globally most important for the conservation of biodiversity. Protected areas and emission pricing are promising strategies to abate the loss of forests and land-use change emissions. The results indicate that even a relatively low CO2 price could render deforestation economically unattractive and could transform the land-use sector from a net source of greenhouse gas emissions into a net sink. Analysis of the potential of afforestation shows that a CO2 price that starts at 30 USD and increases by 5% per year could lead to a forest area expansion of almost 2,600 Mha by the end of the century and a sequestration of about 860 Gt of CO2. The findings of this thesis also underpin the importance of expanding protected areas to reduce the overall amount of deforestation, especially in tropical biodiversity hotspots. Fulfilling the growing demand for food while maintaining or even expanding forests as a climate mitigation strategy requires substantial agricultural intensification. In MAgPIE, investments into yield-increasing research and development (R&D) are modelled endogenously, and all simulation relied on this option. Especially when afforestation competed with agricultural production for the same areas, high yield increases were necessary in tropical developing countries. These findings highlight the importance of the intensification of pasture areas, which has often been neglected. African pasture intensification seems particularly key to limit the conversion of forests and other natural vegetation. This thesis also shows that besides offering a large CO2 removal potential, afforestation can limit the regional self-sufficiency in food production and could have severe consequences for food prices. Global afforestation efforts following the introduction of a price on carbon emissions, as assessed in one of the studies, could result in a four-fold global food price level. The results also highlight the importance of agricultural trade, which is a main determinant of the future of land use and of the effectiveness of land-use policies. This thesis demonstrates that further trade liberalisation may boost deforestation, especially in Latin America. In this region, it also lowers the land-saving effect of agricultural intensification since higher productivity results in higher exports. On the positive side, trade liberalisation may be essential to curb food price hikes that are associated with regional afforestation. Altogether, this thesis shows that the future of land use is open. Failure to implement strict policies bears the risk of continued agricultural expansion and tropical deforestation with severe consequences for biodiversity and climate. However, the results also suggests that effective political instruments are available that could reduce certain adverse environmental and social impacts of agricultural production. ; Globaler Landnutzungswandel ist ein Haupttreiber von zwei der größten Umweltveränderungen die das menschliche Wohlergehen bedrohen: Klimawandel und der Verlust der Biodiversität. Während den letzten Jahrzehnten hat eine wachsende und wohlhabendere Bevölkerung nach mehr landwirtschaftlichen Produkten verlangt, und diese Nachfrage wurde durch Expansion landwirtschaftlicher Flächen und Intensivierung der Produktion bedient. Das hatte jedoch Konsequenzen. Indem Felder und Weiden tropische Wälder ersetzten, wurden einige der artenreichsten Habitate zerstört, und da tropische Wälder zu den Ökosystemen mit der höchsten Kohlenstoffdichte gehören, trug ihr Verlust auch erheblich zum globalen Klimawandel bei. Der Pfad den die Landnutzung in Zukunft einschlagen wird bleibt ungewiss, aber mit dem vorhergesagten Anstieg der globalen Bevölkerung und der damit einhergehenden verstärkten Nachfrage nach Lebensmitteln, zusätzlich zu neu auftauchenden Ansprüchen nach landwirtschaftlicher Energieproduktion und landbasierter Eindämmung des Klimawandels, wird der Druck auf nutzbares Land wahrscheinlich steigen. Diese Doktorarbeit entwirft Szenarien zukünftiger Landnutzung, identifiziert wahrscheinliche zukünftige Entwicklungen, und analysiert politische Strategien die helfen könnten Landnutzung in eine umweltfreundlichere Richtung zu lenken. Wälder und die Frage wie ihre zukünftige Ausdehnung Klima und Biodiversität beeinflussen sind zentral in dieser Doktorarbeit. Sie evaluiert die politischen Maßnahmen eines Preises auf Treibhausgasemissionen aus Landnutzungsänderungen und eine Ausweitung von Naturschutzgebieten, sowie die Auswirkungen von Agrarhandelsliberalisierung und landwirtschaftlicher Intensivierung. Die vorliegende Arbeit versucht das voraussichtliche Ausmaß tropischer Entwaldung bis zu Mitte des Jahrhunderts konkreter zu bestimmen, und untersucht Maßnahmen diese zu verringern. Zudem konzentriert sie sich insbesondere auf tropische Biodiversitätshotspots und Methoden diese durch die Ausweisung von Schutzgebieten und landwirtschaftliche Intensivierung zu erhalten. Darüber hinaus berücksichtigt sie das Kohlenstoff-Abscheidungspotential von großräumiger Aufforstung und deren potentiellen Einfluss auf Lebensmittelpreise. Die Studie nutzt ein globales ökonomisches Landnutzungsmodell um mögliche zukünftige Entwicklungen zu untersuchen. MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) erzeugt globale Landnutzungsmuster für eine gegebene Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten durch die Minimierung landwirtschaftlicher Produktionskosten. Um die vorliegenden Forschungsfragen zu untersuchen, wurde das Modell hinsichtlich verschiedener Aspekte modifiziert und erweitert. Diese Doktorarbeit zeigt, dass die angenommene Steigerung der Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten mindestens bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts zu einer Expansion der Ackerflächen führen wird. Mehr als 400 Mha Ackerfläche könnten zwischen 2015 und 2050 neu entstehen. Dies geht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit mit dem fortlaufenden Verlust von Wäldern und anderer natürlicher Vegetation einher, sollten dem keine geeigneten politischen Maßnahmen entgegen gesetzt werden. In einer Studie die sich auf die tropische Entwaldung fokussiert, beläuft sich die Entwaldung zwischen 2010 und 2050 im Referenzfall auf 140 Mha in Lateinamerika, 64 Mha in Subsahara-Afrika und 24 Mha in Asien-Pazifik. Ohne Intensivierung der Weide und ohne Handelsliberalisierung, könnte Landnutzungswandel bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts mehr als 100 Gt CO2 verursachen, und wird dabei auch jene Gegenden beeinträchtigen die weltweit am wichtigsten für den Erhalt der Biodiversität sind. Naturschutzgebiete und die Bepreisung von Emissionen sind erfolgversprechende Strategien um den Verlust von Wäldern und Landnutzungsemissionen zu verringern. Die Ergebnisse deuten an, dass bereits ein relativ geringer CO2-Preis Entwaldungen ökonomisch unattraktiv machen könnte, und den Landnutzungssektor von einer Netto-Quelle zu einer Senke von Treibhausgasemissionen wandeln könnte. Eine Analyse des Aufforstungspotentials zeigt, dass ein CO2-Preis der bei 30 USD startet und um 5% pro Jahr steigt bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts zu einer Ausdehnung der Waldfläche um fast 2600 Mha und einer Sequestrierung von etwa 860 Gt CO2 führen könnte. Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertation untermauern auch die Bedeutung der Ausweitung von Schutzgebieten um das Ausmaß der Entwaldung, insbesondere in tropischen Biodiversitätshotspots, zu verringern. Um die steigende Nachfrage nach Lebensmitteln zu bedienen, während Wälder erhalten oder als Klimaschutzmaßnahme sogar ausgeweitet werden, bedarf es erheblicher landwirtschaftlicher Intensivierung. In MAgPIE werden Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung endogen modelliert, und alle Simulationen beruhten auf dieser Option. Insbesondere wenn Aufforstung mit landwirtschaftlicher Produktion um die gleichen Flächen konkurrierte waren starke Ertragssteigerungen in tropischen Entwicklungsländern nötig. Diese Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Wichtigkeit einer Intensivierung des Weidelands, welche bisher oft vernachlässigt wurde. Eine Intensivierung afrikanischer Weideflächen erscheint besonders zentral zu sein um die Umwandlung von Wäldern und anderer natürlicher Vegetation einzuschränken. Diese Arbeit zeigt auch, dass Aufforstungen neben dem zur Verfügung stellen eines großen Kohlendioxid-Abscheidungspotentials, die regionale Selbstversorgung mit Lebensmitteln einschränken und erheblichen Einfluss auf Lebensmittelpreise haben können. Weltweite Aufforstungsbestrebungen die der Einführung eines Preises auf Kohlenstoffemissionen folgen, wie es in einer der Studien untersucht wurde, könnten zu einem viermal so hohen globalen Lebensmittelpreisniveau führen. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen auch die Bedeutung des Agrarhandels, der eine bestimmende Größe für die Zukunft der Landnutzung und die Effektivität von Landnutzungspolitik ist. Diese Arbeit zeigt, dass weitere Handelsliberalisierung insbesondere in Lateinamerika die Entwaldung beschleunigen könnte. In dieser Region verringert sie zudem den flächensparenden Effekt von landwirtschaftlicher Intensivierung, da höhere Produktivität zu höheren Exporten führt. Positiv zu bewerten ist, dass Handelsliberalisierung wesentlich zur Begrenzung von Lebensmittelpreissteigerungen im Zusammenhang mit regionalen Aufforstungen beitragen könnte. Insgesamt zeigt die vorliegende Arbeit, dass die Zukunft der Landnutzung offen ist. Ein Versäumnis konsequente Politik umzusetzen birgt das Risiko fortschreitender landwirtschaftlicher Expansion und tropischer Entwaldung mit einschneidenden Konsequenzen für Biodiversität und Klima. Die Ergebnisse zeigen jedoch auch, dass effektive politische Instrumente zur Verfügung stehen, die bestimmte negative soziale und ökologische Auswirkungen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion verringern könnten.
Environmental interlinked problems such as human-induced land cover change, water scarcity, loss in soil fertility, and anthropogenic climate change are expected to affect the viability of agriculture and increase food insecurity in many developing countries. Climate change is certainly the most serious of these challenges for the twenty-first century. The poorest regions of the world – tropical West Africa included – are the most vulnerable due to their high dependence on climate and weather sensitive activities such as agriculture, and the widespread poverty that limits the institutional and economic capacities to adapt to the new stresses brought about by climate change. Climate change is already acting negatively on the poor smallholders of tropical West Africa whose livelihoods dependent mainly on rain-fed agriculture that remains the cornerstone of the economy in the region. Adaptation of the agricultural systems to climate change effects is, therefore, crucial to secure the livelihoods of these rural communities. Since information is a key for decision-making, it is important to provide well-founded information on the magnitude of the impacts in order to design appropriate and sustainable adaptation strategies. Considering the case of agricultural production in the Republic of Benin, this study aims at using large-scale climatic predictors to assess the potential impacts of past and future climate change on agricultural productivity at a country scale in West Africa. Climate signals from large-scale circulation were used because state-of-the art regional climate models (RCM) still do not perfectly resolve synoptic and mesoscale convective processes. It was hypothesised that in rain-fed systems with low investments in agricultural inputs, yield variations are widely governed by climatic factors. Starting with pineapple, a perennial fruit crops, the study further considered some annual crops such as cotton in the group of fibre crops, maize, sorghum and rice in the group of cereals, cowpeas and groundnuts belonging to the legume crops, and cassava and yams which are root and tuber crops. Thus the selected crops represented the three known groups of photosynthetic pathways (i.e. CAM, C3, and C4 plants). In the study, use was made of the historical agricultural yield statistics for the Republic of Benin, observed precipitation and mean near-surface air temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS 3.1) and the corresponding variables simulated by the regional climate model (RCM) REMO. REMO RCM was driven at its boundaries by the global climate model ECHAM 5. Simulations with different greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES-A1B and B1 emission scenarios) and transient land cover change scenarios for present-day and future conditions were considered. The CRU data were submitted to empirical orthogonal functions analysis over the north hemispheric part of Africa to obtain large-scale observed climate predictors and associated consistent variability modes. REMO RCM data for the same region were projected on the derived climate patterns to get simulated climate predictors. By means of cross-validated Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach combined with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques, the observed climate predictors and the crop predictand were further on used to derive robust statistical relationships. The robust statistical crop models perform well with high goodness-of-fit coefficients (e.g. for all combined crop models: 0.49 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99; 0.28 ≤ Brier-Skill-Score ≤ 0.90). Provided that REMO RCM captures the main features of the real African climate system and thus is able to reproduce its inter-annual variability, the time-independent statistical transfer functions were then used to translate future climate change signal from the simulated climate predictors into attainable crop yields/crop yield changes. The results confirm that precipitation and air temperature governed agricultural production in Benin in general, and particularly, pineapple yield variations are mainly influenced by temperature. Furthermore, the projected yield changes under future anthropogenic climate change during the first-half of the 21st century amount up to -12.5% for both maize and groundnuts, and -11%, -29%, -33% for pineapple, cassava, and cowpeas respectively. Meanwhile yield gain of up to +10% for sorghum and yams, +24% for cotton, and +39% for rice are expected. Over the time period 2001 – 2050, on average the future yield changes range between -3% and -13% under REMO SRES–B1 (GHG)+LCC, -2% and -11% under REMO SRES–A1B (GHG only),and -3% and -14% under REMO SRES–A1B (GHG)+LCC for pineapple, maize, sorghum, groundnuts, cowpeas and cassava. In the meantime for yams, cotton and rice, the average yield gains lie in interval of about +2% to +7% under REMO SRES–B1 (GHG)+LCC, +0.1% and +12% under REMO SRES–A1B (GHG only), and +3% and +10% under REMO SRES–A1B (GHG)+LCC. For sorghum, although the long-term average future yield depicts a reduction there are tendencies towards increasing yields in the future. The results also reveal that the increases in mean air temperature more than the changes in precipitation patterns are responsible for the projected yield changes. As well the results suggest that the reductions in pineapple yields cannot be attributed to the land cover/land use changes across sub-Saharan Africa. The production of groundnuts and in particular yams and cotton will profit from the on-going land use/land cover changes while the other crops will face detrimental effects. Henceforth, policymakers should take effective measures to limit the on-going land degradation processes and all other anthropogenic actions responsible for temperature increase. Biotechnological improvement of the cultivated crop varieties towards development of set of seed varieties adapted to hotter and dry conditions should be included in the breeding pipeline programs. Amongst other solutions, application of appropriate climate-smart agricultural practices and conservation agriculture are also required to offset the negative impacts of climate change in agriculture. ; In vielen Entwicklungsländern gefährden Umweltprobleme wie die tiefgreifende Veränderung der Landoberfläche, Wasserknappheit, Bodendegradation und der anthropogene Klimawandel die Leistung¬sfähigkeit der Landwirtschaft und erhöhen so das Risiko von Nahrungs-mittelknappheit. Von diesen miteinander verwobenen Bedrohungen ist der Klimawandel im 21. Jahrhundert sicherlich die bedeutendste. Die höchste Vulnerabilität weisen die ärmsten Regionen der Welt – unter anderen Westafrika – auf, sowohl wegen der großen Bedeutung von klima- und wettersensitiven Wirtschaftsektoren wie der Landwirtschaft als auch wegen der verbreiteten Armut. Diese schränkt die staatlichen und wirtschaftlichen Anpassungs¬kapazitäten an die neuen Herausforderungen durch den Klimawandel ein. Westafrikanische Kleinbauern, deren Lebensunterhalt wesentlich vom traditionellen Regenfeldbau – dem Eckpfeiler der regionalen Wirtschaft – abhängt, bekommen die negativen Auswirkungen bereits zu spüren. Die Adaption der agroökonomischen Systeme an den Klimawandel ist eine unbedingte Notwendigkeit für die Sicherung der Lebensgrundlage dieser ländlichen Gebiete. Da Wissen die Basis für Entscheidungen darstellt, sind belastbare Informationen über das Ausmaß der Auswirkungen wichtig, um angemessene und nachhaltige Anpassungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Am Beispiel der Republik Benin untersucht diese Studie das Potenzial von makroskaligen klimatischen Prädiktoren zur Erfassung und Quantifizierung des potentiellen Einflusses von beobachteten und künftigen Klimaänderungen auf die landwirtschaftliche Produktion eines westafrikanischen Landes. Die Auswirkungen der großskaligen Zirkulation wurden herangezogen, da auch moderne Regionale Klimamodelle (RCMs) Schwierigkeiten haben, klein- oder mesoskalige synoptische und insbesondere konvektive Prozesse überzeugend zu simulieren. Zugrunde liegt die Annahme, dass Schwankungen des landwirtschaftlichen Ertrags in auf Regenfeldbau basierenden landwirtschaftlichen Systemen mit geringen Kapitaleinsatz zu weiten Teilen auf klimatische Faktoren zurückzuführen sind. Untersucht werden die Ananas als perennierende Pflanze sowie einige einjährige Feldfrüchte wie Baumwolle aus der Gruppe der Faserpflanzen, die Getreidearten Mais, Sorghumhirse und Reis, die Hülsenfrüchte Augenbohne und Erdnuss sowie die Knollen- und Wurzelfrüchte Maniok und Yams. Somit repräsentieren die ausgewählten Feldfrüchte die drei bekannten Photosynthese-Wege, nämlich CAM, C3 und C4. Die vorliegende Studie verwendet historische Ertragsstatistiken der Republik Benin, Beobachtungsdaten der Climate Research Unit für den monatlichen Niederschlag sowie die bodennahe Mitteltemperatur (CRU TS 3.1) und die entsprechenden Variablen simuliert durch das REMO RCM. Dieses Regionalmodell wird an seinen Rändern durch das globale Klimamodell ECHAM 5 angetrieben. Es werden Modellsimulationen mit unterschiedlichen Randbedingungen im Hinblick auf Treibhausgaskonzentrationen (die Szenarien SRES-B1 und SRES-A1B) und Veränderungen der Landbedeckung (LCC) berücksichtigt. Mittels Hauptkomponentenanalyse werden aus den CRU-Daten für den nordhemisphärischen Teil Afrikas Zeitreihen und räumliche Muster für großskalige Prädiktoren gewonnen. Um mit diesen konsistente Prädiktoren für die Simulationen zu erhalten, werden die Datenfelder des REMO RCMs auf die so gewonnenen Raummuster projiziert. Für die beobachteten Zeitreihen der Prädiktoren und die zeitliche Entwicklung der unterschiedlichen Feldfrüchte als Prädiktant werden mittels eines kombinierten Ansatzes aus kreuzvalidierten Model Output Statistics (MOS) und Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Techniken robuste statistische Zusammenhänge erfasst. Die resultierenden statistischen Modelle zeigen gute Performance, beispielsweise gilt für alle erzeugten Modelle 0,49 ≤ R² ≤ 0,99 und 0,28 ≤ Brier-Skill-Score ≤ 0,90. Da das REMO RCM die Hauptcharakteristika des beobachteten Klimas in Afrika erzeugt und daher die interannuelle Variabilität realistisch reproduziert, können mithilfe der zeitunabhängigen statistischen Transferfunktionen Klimaänderungssignale, gewonnen aus den simulierten Prädiktoren, in zu erwartende Veränderungen der Ernteerträge übersetzt werden. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass Niederschlag und bodennahe Temperatur allgemein die landwirtschaftliche Produktion bestimmen und insbesondere die Schwankungen in den Ananas¬-erträgen primär thermisch bedingt scheinen. Weiterhin finden sich unter den simulierten künftigen Klimabedingungen projizierte Ertragsänderungen von bis zu -12,5% für Mais und Erdnuss und -11% , -29% und -33% für Ananas, Maniok und Augenbohne. Zugleich werden Ertragssteigerungen von +10% für Sorghumhirse und Yams, +24% für Baumwolle und +39% für Reis projiziert. Diese Änderungen sind abhängig von den Randbedingungen. Im Mittel betragen die simulierten Änderungen der Erträge während der Periode von 2001 bis 2050 zwischen -13% und -3% für SRES-B1 + LCC, -11% und -2% für SRES-A1B sowie -14% bis -3% für SRES-A1B + LCC für Ananas, Mais, Sorghumhirse, Erdnuss, Augenbohne und Maniok. Daneben finden sich für Yams, Baumwolle und Reis Zuwächse im Ernteertrag, die in Intervallen zwischen +2% bis +7% für SRES-B1 + LCC, +0.1% bis +12% für SRES-A1B und +3% bis +10% für SRES-A1B + LCC liegen. Obwohl die durchschnittliche Veränderung im Ertrag der Sorghumhirse negativ ist, lassen sich auch Tendenzen hin zu positiven Veränderungen feststellen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass die projizierte Zunahme der mittleren Lufttemperatur die simulierten Ernteerträge stärker beeinflusst als Veränderungen in den Niederschlagsmustern. Weiterhin scheint im Fall der Ananas der simulierte Rückgang im Ertrag nicht auf Veränderungen bei Landnutzung oder Landoberflächenbedeckung im subsaharischen Afrika zurückführbar. Die Erdnuss- und insbesondere Yams- und Baumwollerzeugung werden von den Veränderungen in der Landoberflächenbedeckung, die für die übrigen Feldfrüchte nachteilige Effekte bedeuten, profitieren. Zukünftig sollten politische Entscheidungsträger wirksame Maßnahmen einleiten, um die fortschreitende Landdegradation sowie alle anderen anthropogenen Prozesse, die zur globalen Erwärmung beitragen, einzuschränken. Biotechnologische Verbesserungen der verwendeten Nutzpflanzen, um an heißere und trockenere Bedingungen angepasste Varianten zu erzeugen, sollten in die bestehenden Aufzuchtprogramme integriert werden. Weiterhin sind unter anderem die Anwendung von geeigneten, klimaintelligenten landwirtschaftlichen Verfahren sowie eine nachhaltige Agrarwirtschaft notwendig, um die Schäden des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft auszugleichen.
Welcome to the second issue of IASSIST Quarterly for the year 2023 - IQ vol. 47(2).
I am very happy with the 'International' in IASSIST. It is important to learn from outside your own center. In this issue we have a focus on the United States and some African countries with a special focus on South Africa. The first article investigates LibGuides across the many states of the United States. The second article is centered on one of the data resources often found in the LibGuides pages, but the data itself is about all of the United States. In the third article we shift to the African continent and the described project has a base in South Africa with a connection to the United Kingdom - still part of Europe although not of the EU - and with research being conducted in several African countries. We can't promise to cover the whole world in each IQ issue – but this issue is quite international.
The first article is 'Taking count: A computational analysis of data resources on academic LibGuides in the U.S.'. Cody Hennesy, Alicia Kubas and Jenny McBurney have undertaken the task of collecting links to data and statistical resources from over 10,000 LibGuide pages at 123 R1 research institutions in the United States. The LibGuides platform has become the universal resource discovery platform in academic libraries in the U.S. LibGuides not only support researchers, they also help librarians in orientation among the many resources. The authors reach the conclusion that freely available resources from U.S. government agencies are the most widely used. Resources requiring paid licenses or memberships (like ICPSR) are also frequent. The analysis suggest traditional licensed statistical resources are more likely to be shared than complex microdata resources. Data cleaning of the nearly 200,000 links from the 10,000 guide pages was an essential part of the analysis. The authors cite the data scientist joke that 90% of the work is data cleaning, and they find that the actual number for the cleaning and normalization in this analysis was even larger, performed through Python and OpenRefine. The data process included accessing the LibGuide pages based on the keywords of 'data' and 'statistic' and then extracting the content links. The links were then cleaned, filtered and further normalized. The data cleaning showed a high degree of inconsistency and dead links, leading the authors to suggest a more centralized management of data resources. The most frequently found links to resources are through ICPSR and data.gov, and a table with the 20 most common resources shows that even the most uncommon resource among these 20 are included in more than 73% of the institutions. This demonstrates a high consistency across the institutions. However, the authors remark that they believe that the very few institutions that didn't include a link to the popular data.gov would benefit from having information about this resource available for their researchers. Cody Hennesy and Jenny McBurney are the Journalism & Digital Media Librarian and a Social Sciences Librarian at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, and Alicia Kubas is a librarian at the U.S. Government Publishing Office.
The second article concerns metadata from IPUMS projects at the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation (ISRDI) at the University of Minnesota (note, these are among the central sources of data LibGuides, mentioned several times in the first article). The authors are Diana L. Magnuson, curator and historian at the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, and Wendy L. Thomas, now retired curator from the same institution. The title is 'Expanding our perspective: building a sustainable metadata culture'. The article describes the learning obtained by ISRDI through the submission of an application for certification to the Core Trust Seal (CTS). When applying for certification the institution must document that it follows the standards and guidelines for the certification. In the case of the CTS - as in many other cases of certification - the building of a portfolio of documentation of procedures makes the applicant more self-aware of its history, as well as of the routines delivering the final products. The conclusion is also that the certification process has led to a better internal understanding at the ISRDI that can support future development as well as preserve the work done. IPUMS has over the last thirty years created the world's largest accessible database of census microdata starting with the 1880 Historical Census Project that has been extended in both time directions and now covering more than a hundred years. Naturally, processing of data has changed over the years and keeping track of the documentation proved difficult. The decision to use digital object identifiers (DOIs) led to a persistency and uniqueness that supported the users. This also had internal benefits as references and publications were more easily trackable and the preservation work more accurate and complete for each product version. Among the figures of the article, you will find the workflow using the open archival information system (OAIS) model as well as the IPUMS business process model.
The third article concerns the dilemma of personal data protection versus the benefit of using data for life improvement. The title of the submission is 'Data management instruments to protect the personal information of children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa' and concerns health research in this group. On the one hand the researchers naturally must follow the data regulations as they appear in the Protection of Personal Information (POPI) Act in South Africa and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union, and with special attention to high-risk and vulnerable groups such as children and adolescents. On the other hand, these vulnerable groups are also at risk from a health viewpoint, especially from infectious diseases like infantile paralysis, measles and pneumococci. Research and data collected from children has contributed to the development of vaccines, which has led to a dramatic reduction in child mortality and improvements in the quality of life. The project described is a large-scale one that involves many countries and many researchers, making governance and data management crucial to achieving data availability and data security. The article discusses the strategies and instruments used, and addresses the many considerations from both ethical sides and when building a data management plan and decisions on sharing data. The authors behind the article are Lucas Hertzog, Jenny Chen-Charles, Camille Wittesaele, Kristen de Graaf, Raylene Titus, Jane Kelly, Nontokozo Langwenya, Lauren Baerecke, Boladé Hamed Banougnin, Wylene Saal, John Southall, Lucie Cluver, and Elona Toska. Many of these are affiliated to the Centre for Social Science Research at the University of Cape Town in South Africa and some are connected to the University of Oxford. It is important to mention that in addition to the central participation from South Africa and the UK, the project is based on partnerships with researchers in Zambia, Malawi, Nigeria, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Kenya.
Submissions of papers for the IASSIST Quarterly are always very welcome. We welcome input from IASSIST conferences or other conferences and workshops, from local presentations or papers especially written for the IQ. When you are preparing such a presentation, give a thought to turning your one-time presentation into a lasting contribution. Doing that after the event also gives you the opportunity of improving your work after feedback. We encourage you to login or create an author profile at https://www.iassistquarterly.com (our Open Journal System application). We permit authors to have 'deep links' into the IQ as well as deposition of the paper in your local repository. Chairing a conference session or workshop with the purpose of aggregating and integrating papers for a special issue IQ is also much appreciated as the information reaches many more people than the limited number of session participants and will be readily available on the IASSIST Quarterly website at https://www.iassistquarterly.com. Should you be interested in compiling a special issue for the IQ as guest editor(s) you can also contact the IQ. Take a look at the instructions, layout, and contact at:
https://www.iassistquarterly.com/index.php/iassist/about/submissions
On a personal note, I have since 1997 been the editor of the IASSIST Quarterly. All good things must end. New people will take over and improve the journal. I find there have been many improvements in the IQ during my tenure. Special thanks to my good friends Walter and Jane for their work on the journal. For many years, Walter Piovesan helped with layout and production, and he established contact with the Open Journal System staff before retiring from the IQ editorial team. Jane Roberts turned my Danglish into English in my IQ editorials. I am very happy to quit now, especially because you IASSISTers will have very competent replacements in Michele Hayslett and Ofira Schwartz. They have already for long worked behind the scenes at IQ, and have also edited the recent special issue on Systemic Racism. The IQ is in good hands.
Karsten Boye Rasmussen - June 2023
Temporary or permanent, local or international, voluntary or forced, legal or illegal, registered or unregistered migrations of individuals, whole communities or individual groups are an important factor in constructing and modifying (modern) societies. The extent of international migrations is truly immense. At the time of the preparation of this publication more than 200 million people have been involved in migrations in a single year according to the United Nations. Furthermore, three times more wish to migrate, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa towards some of the most economically developed areas of the world according to the estimates by the Gallup Institute (Esipova, 2011). Some authors, although aware that it is not a new phenomenon, talk about the era of migration (Castles, Miller, 2009) or the globalization of migration (Friedman, 2004). The global dimensions of migration are definitely influenced also by the increasingly visible features of modern societies like constantly changing conditions, instability, fluidity, uncertainty etc. (Beck, 2009; Bauman, 2002).The extent, direction, type of migrations and their consequences are affected by many social and natural factors in the areas of emigration and immigration. In addition, researchers from many scientific disciplines who study migrations have raised a wide range of research questions (Boyle, 2009, 96), use a variety of methodological approaches and look for different interpretations in various spatial, temporal and contextual frameworks. The migrations are a complex, multi-layered, variable, contextual process that takes place at several levels. Because of this, research on migrations has become an increasingly interdisciplinary field, since the topics and problems are so complex that they cannot be grasped solely and exclusively from the perspective of a single discipline or theory. Therefore, we are witnessing a profusion of different "faces of migration", which is reflected and at the same time also contributed to by this thematic issue of the journal Ars & Humanitas.While mobility or migration are not new phenomena, as people have moved and migrated throughout the history of mankind, only recently, in the last few decades, has theoretical and research focus on them intensified considerably. In the last two decades a number of research projects, university programs and courses, research institutes, scientific conferences, seminars, magazines, books and other publications, involving research, academia as well as politics and various civil society organizations have emerged. This shows the recent exceptional interest in the issue of migration, both in terms of knowledge of the processes involved, their mapping in the history of mankind, as well as the theoretical development of migration studies and daily management of this politically sensitive issue.Migration affects many entities on many different levels: the individuals, their families and entire communities at the local level in the emigrant societies as well as in the receiving societies. The migration is changing not only the lives of individuals but whole communities and societies, as well as social relations; it is also shifting the cultural patterns and bringing important social transformations (Castles 2010). This of course raises a number of questions, problems and issues ranging from human rights violations to literary achievements. Some of these are addressed by the authors in this thematic issue.The title "Many faces of migration", connecting contributions in this special issue, is borrowed from the already mentioned Gallup Institute's report on global migration (Esipova, 2011). The guiding principle in the selection of the contributions has been their diversity, reflected also in the list of disciplines represented by the authors: sociology, geography, ethnology and cultural anthropology, history, art history, modern Mediterranean studies, gender studies and media studies. Such an approach necessarily leads not only to a diverse, but at least seemingly also incompatible, perhaps even opposing views "on a given topic. However, we did not want to silence the voices of "other" disciplines, but within the reviewing procedures actually invited scientists from the fields represented by the contributors to this volume. The wealth of the selected contributions lies therefore not only in their coherence and complementarity, but also in the diversity of views, stories and interpretations.The paper of Zora Žbontar deals with the attitudes towards foreigners in ancient Greece, where the hospitality to strangers was considered so worthy a virtue that everyone was expected to "demonstrate hospitality and protection to any foreigner who has knocked on their door". The contrast between the hospitality of ancient Greece and the modern emergence of xenophobia and ways of dealing with migration issues in economically developed countries is especially challenging. "In an open gesture of hospitality to strangers the ancient Greeks showed their civilization".Although the aforementioned research by the United Nations and Gallup Institute support some traditional stereotypes of the main global flows of migrants, and the areas about which the potential migrants "dream", Bojan Baskar stresses the coexistence of different migratory desires, migration flows and their interpretations. In his paper he specifically focuses on overcoming and relativising stereotypes as well as theories of immobile and non-enterprising (Alpine) mountain populations and migrations.The different strategies of the crossing borders adopted by migrant women are studied by Mirjana Morokvasic. She marks them as true social innovators, inventing different ways of transnational life resulting in a bottom-up contribution to the integrative processes across Europe. Some of their innovations go as far as to shift diverse real and symbolic boundaries of belonging to a nation, gender, profession.Elaine Burroughs and Zoë O'Reilly highlight the close relations between the otherwise well-established terminology used in statistics and science to label immigrants in Ireland and elsewhere in EU, and the negative representations of certain types of migrants in politics and the public. The discussion focusses particularly on asylum seekers and illegal immigrants who come from outside the EU. The use of language can quickly become a political means of exclusion, therefore the authors propose the development and use of more considerate and balanced migration terminology.Damir Josipovič proposes a change of the focal point for identifying and interpreting the well-studied migrations in the former Yugoslavia. The author suggests changing the dualistic view of these migrations to an integrated, holistic view. Instead of a simplified understanding of these migrations as either international or domestic, voluntary or forced, he proposes a concept of pseudo-voluntary migrations.Maja Korać-Sanderson's contribution highlights an interesting phenomenon in the shift in the traditional patterns of gender roles. The conclusions are derived from the study of the family life of Chinese traders in transitional Serbia. While many studies suggest that child care in recent decades in immigrant societies is generally performed by immigrants, her study reveals that in Serbia, the Chinese merchants entrust the care of their children mostly to local middle class women. The author finds this switch of roles in the "division of labour" in the child care favourable for both parties involved.Francesco Della Puppa focuses on a specific part of the mosaic of contemporary migrations in the Mediterranean: the Bangladeshi immigrant community in the highly industrialized North East of Italy. The results of his in-depth qualitative study reveal the factors that shape this segment of the Bangladeshi diaspora, the experiences of migrants and the effects of migration on their social and biographical trajectories.John A. Schembri and Maria Attard present a snippet of a more typical Mediterranean migration process - immigration to Malta. The authors highlight the reduction in migration between Malta and the United Kingdom, while there is an increase in immigration to Malta from the rest of Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. Amongst the various impacts of immigration to Malta the extraordinary concentration of immigrant populations is emphasized, since the population density of Malta far exceeds that of nearly all other European countries.Miha Kozorog studies the link between migration and constructing their places of their origin. On the basis of Ardener's theory the author expresses "remoteness" of the emigratory Slavia Friulana in terms of topology, in relation to other places, rather than in topography. "Remoteness" is formed in relation to the "outside world", to those who speak of "remote areas" from the privileged centres. The example of an artistic event, which organizers aim "to open a place like this to the outside world", "to encourage the production of more cosmopolitan place", shows only the temporary effect of such event on the reduction of the "remoteness".Jani Kozina presents a study of the basic temporal and spatial characteristics of migration "of people in creative occupations" in Slovenia. The definition of this specific segment of the population and approach to study its migrations are principally based on the work of Richard Florida. The author observes that people with creative occupations in Slovenia are very immobile and in this respect quite similar to other professional groups in Slovenia, but also to the people in creative professions in the Southern and Eastern Europe, which are considered to be among the least mobile in Europe. Detailed analyses show that the people in creative occupations from the more developed regions generally migrate more intensely and are also more willing to relocate.Mojca Pajnik and Veronika Bajt study the experiences of migrant women with the access to the labour market in Slovenia. Existing laws and policies push the migrants into a position where, if they want to get to work, have to accept less demanding work. In doing so, the migrant women are targets of stereotyped reactions and practices of discrimination on the basis of sex, age, attributed ethnic and religious affiliation, or some other circumstances, particularly the fact of being migrants. At the same time the latter results in the absence of any protection from the state.Migration studies often assume that the target countries are "modern" and countries of origin "traditional". Anıl Al- Rebholz argues that such a dichotomous conceptualization of modern and traditional further promotes stereotypical, essentialist and homogenizing images of Muslim women in the "western world". On the basis of biographical narratives of young Kurdish and Moroccan women as well as the relationships between mothers and daughters, the author illustrates a variety of strategies of empowerment of young women in the context of transnational migration.A specific face of migration is highlighted in the text of Svenka Savić, namely the face of artistic migration between Slovenia and Serbia after the Second World War. The author explains how more than thirty artists from Slovenia, with their pioneering work in three ensembles (opera, ballet and theatre), significantly contributed to the development of the performing arts in the Serbian National Theatre in Novi Sad.We believe that in the present thematic issue we have succeeded in capturing an important part of the modern European research dynamic in the field of migration. In addition to well-known scholars in this field several young authors at the beginning their research careers have been shortlisted for the publication. We are glad of their success as it bodes a vibrancy of this research area in the future. At the same time, we were pleased to receive responses to the invitation from representatives of so many disciplines, and that the number of papers received significantly exceeded the maximum volume of the journal. Recognising and understanding of the many faces of migration are important steps towards the comprehensive knowledge needed to successfully meet the challenges of migration issues today and even more so in the future. It is therefore of utmost importance that researchers find ways of transferring their academic knowledge into practice – to all levels of education, the media, the wider public and, of course, the decision makers in local, national and international institutions. The call also applies to all authors in this issue of the journal. ; Začasne ali stalne, lokalne ali mednarodne, prostovoljne ali prisilne, legalne ali ilegalne, registrirane ali neregistrirane migracije posameznic in posameznikov, celih družbenih skupnosti ali posameznih skupin predstavljajo pomemben dejavnik v konstruiranju in spreminjanju (sodobnih) družb. Razsežnosti mednarodnih migracij so resnično ogromne, saj je bilo vanje v času nastajanja te publikacije po ocenah Združenih narodov v enem letu vključenih več kot 200 milijonov ljudi. Po ocenah Gallupovega inštituta pa se jih še trikrat toliko želi preseliti, največ iz podsaharske Afrike ter proti nekaterim gospodarsko najbolj razvitim območjem sveta (Esipova, 2011). Nekateri avtorji zato, čeprav ob zavedanju, da ne gre za nov fenomen, govorijo o dobi migracij (Castles, Miller, 2009) ali o globalizaciji migracij (Friedman, 2004). Zagotovo je na globalne razsežnosti migracij vplivalo tudi to, da so vse bolj vidne značilnosti sodobnih družb nenehno spreminjanje razmer, nestabilnost, fluidnost, negotovost ipd. (Beck, 2009; Bauman, 2002).Na obseg, smeri in vrste migracij ter na njihove posledice vplivajo številni družbeni in naravni dejavniki, tako na območjih odseljevanja kot tudi na območjih priselitev. Poleg tega si raziskovalke in raziskovalci iz številnih znanstvenih disciplin, ki proučujejo migracije, v raziskavah zastavljajo »neverjetno raznovrstna« vprašanja (Boyle, 2009, 96), uporabljajo različne metodološke pristope in iščejo različne interpretacije, in sicer v različnih prostorskih, časovnih in vsebinskih okvirih. Vse bolj prihaja do izraza, da so migracije kompleksen, večplasten, spremenljiv in kontekstualen proces, ki poteka na več ravneh. Prav zaradi tega spoznanja je raziskovanje migracij postajalo vse bolj interdisciplinarno polje, saj so teme in problemi tako kompleksni, da jih ni mogoče zagrabiti zgolj in izključno iz perspektive ene same znanosti ali teorije. Zato smo priča pravemu bogastvu »obrazov migracij«, ki ga odraža ter obenem k njemu tudi prispeva pričujoča tematska številka revije Ars & Humanitas.Čeprav mobilnost oziroma migracije niso nov pojav, saj so se ljudje selili in preseljevali skozi celotno zgodovino človeštva, pa se šele v zadnjem času, v zadnjih nekaj desetletjih, z njimi resno teoretsko in raziskovalno ukvarjamo. V zadnjih dveh desetletjih so se pojavili številni raziskovalni projekti, univerzitetni programi in predmeti, raziskovalni inštituti, znanstvene konference, posveti, revije, knjige in druge publikacije, pri katerih sodelujejo tako raziskovalna in akademska sfera kot tudi politika in različne civilnodružbene organizacije. To priča o v zadnjem času izjemnem zanimanju za vprašanje migracij, tako kar zadeva poznavanje samih procesov in njihovo mapiranje v zgodovini človeštva kot tudi teoretski razvoj migracijskih študij in vsakodnevno urejanje tega politično občutljivega vprašanja.Migracije zadevajo številne subjekte na številnih ravneh: posameznice in posameznike, njihove družine ter celotne skupnosti tako na lokalni ravni v družbi emigracije kakor tudi na vseh teh ravneh v imigrantski družbi. Z migracijami se spreminjajo ne samo življenja posameznikov in posameznic, ampak se spreminjajo celotne skupnosti oziroma družbe in družbeni odnosi, zamikajo se kulturni vzorci, prihaja do pomembnih družbenih transformacij (Castles, 2010). Ob tem se seveda odpirajo številne teme, problemi in vprašanja, ki se gibljejo v širokem razponu od kršenja človekovih pravic do literarnih presežkov. Nekaterih od njih se dotikajo tudi prispevki v pričujoči tematski številki.Povezovalni naslov prispevkov v tej tematski številki revije, »Številni obrazi migracij«, smo si sposodili iz že omenjenega poročila Gallupovega inštituta o globalnih selitvah (Esipova, 2011). Temeljno vsebinsko vodilo pri izbiri prispevkov je bila raznovrstnost, kar nakazuje tudi pregled znanstvenih disciplin, iz katerih prihajajo avtorji: sociologija, geografija, etnologija in kulturna antropologija, zgodovina, umetnostna zgodovina, sodobne sredozemske študije, študiji spola in medijski študiji. Tak pristop nujno pripelje ne le do raznolikih, ampak tudi do vsaj navidezno neskladnih, morda celo nasprotnih pogledov na obravnavane tematike. Vendar nismo želeli utišati glasov iz »drugih« znanstvenih disciplin, temveč smo raje v recenzentske postopke povabili znanstvenike s področij, s katerih so tudi avtorji. Bogastvo zbranih prispevkov torej ni v njihovi medsebojni skladnosti in potrjevanju, temveč prav v mnogoterosti pogledov, zgodb in interpretacij.Prispevek Zore Žbontar obravnava odnos do tujcev v antični Grčiji, kjer je bilo gostoljubje do tujcev tako častivredna vrlina, da je vsak moral »izkazati gostoljubje in zaščititi kateregakoli tujca, ki je potrkal na vrata«. Zlasti je izzivalen kontrast med gostoljubjem v antični Grčiji in sodobnim pojavljanjem ksenofobije ter načini soočanja z migracijsko problematiko v gospodarsko razvitih državah. »Antični Grki so v odprti gesti gostoljubja do tujcev prepoznali svojo civiliziranost.«Čeprav omenjene raziskave Združenih narodov in Gallupovega inštituta podpirajo nekatere uveljavljene stereotipe o glavnih globalnih tokovih migrantov ter o območjih, o katerih »sanjajo« potencialni migranti, Bojan Baskar opozarja na sočasen obstoj tudi drugačnih migracijskih želja, tokov migracij in njihovih interpretacij. Posebej se osredotoči na preseganje in relativizacijo stereotipov in teorij o nemobilnem in nepodjetnem (alpskem) hribovskem prebivalstvu in migracijah.O tem, kako različne strategije pri prehajanju, prestopanju in prečkanju meja razvijejo migrantke, piše Mirjana Morokvasic. Označi jih kot prave socialne inovatorke, ki izumijo različne načine transnacionalnega življenja in tako od spodaj navzgor prispevajo k integrativnim procesom po vsej Evropi. V svoji inovativnosti gredo nekatere tako daleč, da premikajo različne, tako realne kot simbolne meje pripadanja naciji, spolu in poklicu.Elaine Burroughs in Zoë O'Reilly izpostavita tesno povezanost med sicer uveljavljeno terminologijo, s katero v statistiki in tudi znanosti označujejo imigrante na Irskem in širše v EU, ter negativnimi reprezentacijami nekaterih tipov migrantov v politiki in javnosti. Razpravo navežeta zlasti na iskalce azila in nezakonite priseljence, ki pridejo iz držav zunaj EU. Raba jezika lahko hitro postane politični način izključevanja, zato predlagata razvoj in uporabo obzirnejše in pravičnejše migracijske terminologije.Za spremembo izhodišča opredeljevanja in interpretacije sicer dobro proučenih selitev v nekdanji Jugoslaviji se zavzame Damir Josipovič. Predlaga zamenjavo dualističnega pogleda na te migracije s celostnim. Namesto njihovega poenostavljenega razumevanja kot mednarodnih in notranjih ali prostovoljnih in prisilnih migracij pa se zavzema za koncept psevdoprostovoljnih migracij.Na zanimiv fenomen zamikanja ustaljenih vzorcev spolnih vlog opozori tekst Maje Korać-Sanderson, katere zaključki izhajajo iz študije družinskega življenja kitajskih trgovcev v tranzicijski Srbiji. Medtem ko številne študije ugotavljajo, da skrbstveno delo v zadnjih desetletjih v imigrantskih družbah v glavnem opravljajo migrantke, njena študija ugotavlja, da v Srbiji kitajske trgovke skrb za svoje otroke večinoma zaupajo lokalnim ženskam srednjega razreda. Ta obrat vlog pri »delitvi dela« v skrbstveni sferi, ugotavlja avtorica, je v prid obema vpletenima stranema.Specifičen del mozaika sodobnih migracij v Sredozemlju, bangladeške skupnosti imigrantov na visoko industrializiranem severovzhodu Italije, razkriva Francesco Della Puppa. Izsledki poglobljenega kvalitativnega proučevanja odstirajo dejavnike, ki oblikujejo ta segment bangladeške diaspore, izkušnje migrantov ter učinke selitve na njihove družbene in biografske trajektorije.Izsek iz bolj tipičnih sredozemskih migracijskih procesov na primeru priseljevanja na Malto predstavita John A. Schembri in Maria Attard. Ugotavljata zmanjševanje števila selitev med Malto in Veliko Britanijo ob hkratnem povečevanju priseljevanja iz ostalih držav Evrope in podsaharske Afrike. Med učinki priseljevanja na Malto izpostavita izredno zgoščenost priseljenega prebivalstva, ki presega gostote celotnih prebivalstev v nekaterih evropskih državah.Miha Kozorog obravnava povezavo med migracijami in konstruiranjem krajev, iz katerih te migracije izvirajo. S pomočjo Ardenerjeve teorije »odročnost« izrazito emigracijske Benečije izrazi ne toliko v topografskem kot v topološkem smislu, v razmerju do drugih krajev. »Odročnost« nastaja v razmerju z »zunanjim svetom«, s tistimi, ki govorijo o »odročnih krajih« iz privilegiranih središč. Na primeru umetniškega dogodka, s katerim želijo organizatorji »odpreti tak kraj zunanjemu svetu« in »spodbuditi produkcijo bolj svetovljanskega kraja«, pokaže zgolj začasnost učinka tega dogodka na zmanjšanje »odročnosti«.O temeljnih časovnih in prostorskih značilnostih selitev »prebivalcev z ustvarjalnim poklicem« v Sloveniji piše Jani Kozina. Pri opredeljevanju tega specifičnega dela prebivalstva in pristopa k proučevanju njegovega migriranja se opre zlasti na dela Richarda Floride. Ugotavlja, da so prebivalci z ustvarjalnim poklicem v Sloveniji prostorsko zelo nemobilni in po tem kriteriju precej podobni ostalim poklicnim skupinam v Sloveniji, obenem pa tudi prebivalcem z ustvarjalnimi poklici v južni in vzhodni Evropi, za katere velja, da so med najmanj mobilnimi v Evropi. Podrobnejše analize pokažejo, da se ustvarjalci bolj razvitih regij načeloma intenzivneje selijo in so tudi v večji meri pripravljeni na selitev.O izkušnjah migrantk pri dostopu do trga delovne sile v Sloveniji govori članek Mojce Pajnik in Veronike Bajt. Obstoječa zakonodaja in posamezne politike namreč migrantke potiskajo v položaj, ko, če hočejo priti do zaposlitve, pristajajo na manj zahtevna dela. Pri tem so tarče stereotipnih reakcij in praks diskriminiranja tako na podlagi spola kot tudi starosti, pripisane etnične in religiozne pripadnosti ali kakšne druge okoliščine, še posebej dejstva, da so migrantke. Obenem pa prav zadnje vpliva na to, da s strani države niso deležne nikakršne zaščite.Migracijske študije pogosto domnevajo, da so ciljne države »moderne«, države izvora pa »tradicionalne«. Razprava Anıl Al-Rebholz ugotavlja, da takšna dihotomija pojmovanja modernega in tradicionalnega dodatno spodbuja stereotipne, esencialistične in homogenizirajoče predstave o muslimanskih ženskah v »zahodnem svetu«. Na podlagi biografskih pripovedi mlade Maročanke in Kurdinje ter razmerij med materami in hčerami prikaže raznolike strategije opolnomočenja mladih žensk v transnacionalnem migracijskem kontekstu.Specifični obraz migracij prinaša tekst Svenke Savić, namreč obraz umetniških migracij med Slovenijo in Srbijo po drugi svetovni vojni. Avtorica v njem ugotavlja, da je v treh ansamblih (opernem, gledališkem in baletnem) več kot trideset umetnic in umetnikov iz Slovenije s svojim pionirskim delom pomembno zaznamovalo razvoj gledališke umetnosti v Srbskem narodnem gledališču v Novem Sadu.Verjamemo, da nam je uspelo v pričujočo tematsko številko ujeti pomemben del sodobnega evropskega raziskovalskega utripa s področja migracij. Poleg uveljavljenih znanstvenikov s tega področja se je v ožji izbor prispevkov uvrstilo tudi več mladih avtoric in avtorjev, ki začenjajo raziskovalne kariere. Njihov uspeh nas veseli, saj obeta živahnost tega raziskovalnega področja tudi v bodoče. Obenem nas veseli, da so se vabilu odzvali predstavniki tako številnih znanstvenih disciplin ter da je število prispevkov, ki smo jih prejeli, znatno presegalo največji možni obseg revije. Spoznavanje in razumevanje številnih obrazov migracij sta pomembna koraka proti celovitemu znanju, potrebnemu za uspešno soočanje z izzivi migracijske problematike danes in, kot kaže, še posebej v prihodnosti. Zato je izjemnega pomena, da raziskovalci najdemo načine prenosa svojih znanstvenih spoznanj v prakso – na vse ravni izobraževanja, v medije, širše strokovne javnosti ter seveda tudi odločevalcem v lokalnih, državnih in mednarodnih ustanovah. Poziv velja tudi vsem avtorjem prispevkov v tej številke revije.
Publisher's version (útgefin grein) ; Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>= 65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45.8 (95% uncertainty interval 44.2-47.5) in 1990 to 60.3 (58.7-61.9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2.6% [1.9-3.3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0.79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388.9 million (358.6-421.3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3.1 billion (3.0-3.2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968.1 million [903.5-1040.3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC. ; Lucas Guimaraes Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior -Brasil (Capes) -Finance Code 001, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq) and Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG). Olatunji O Adetokunboh acknowledges South African Department of Science & Innovation, and National Research Foundation. Anurag Agrawal acknowledges support from the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance Senior Fellowship IA/CPHS/14/1/501489. Rufus Olusola Akinyemi acknowledges Grant U01HG010273 from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) as part of the H3Africa Consortium. Rufus Olusola Akinyemi is further supported by the FLAIR fellowship funded by the UK Royal Society and the African Academy of Sciences. Syed Mohamed Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. Marcel Ausloos, Claudiu Herteliu, and Adrian Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDSUEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. Till Winfried Barnighausen acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Juan J Carrero was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2019-01059). Felix Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. Vera Marisa Costa acknowledges support from grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma TransitA3ria DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. Jan-Walter De Neve acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Kebede Deribe acknowledges support by Wellcome Trust grant number 201900/Z/16/Z as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. Claudiu Herteliu acknowledges partial support by a grant co-funded by European Fund for Regional Development through Operational Program for Competitiveness, Project ID P_40_382. Praveen Hoogar acknowledges the Centre for Bio Cultural Studies (CBiCS), Manipal Academy of Higher Education(MAHE), Manipal and Centre for Holistic Development and Research (CHDR), Kalghatgi. Bing-Fang Hwang acknowledges support from China Medical University (CMU108-MF-95), Taichung, Taiwan. Mihajlo Jakovljevic acknowledges the Serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-funded through the Grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. Aruna M Kamath acknowledges funding from the National Institutes of Health T32 grant (T32GM086270). Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi acknowledges funding from the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/13 & MC_UU_12017/15), Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13 & SPHSU15) and an NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02). Yun Jin Kim acknowledges support from the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001). Kewal Krishan acknowledges support from the DST PURSE grant and UGC Center of Advanced Study (CAS II) awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. Manasi Kumar acknowledges support from K43 TW010716 Fogarty International Center/NIMH. Ben Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. Ivan Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de InvestigaciA3n (SNI), which is supported by the Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia Tecnologia e Innovacion (SENACYT), Panama. Jeffrey V Lazarus acknowledges support by a Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet grant (Instituto de Salud Carlos III/ESF, European Union [CP18/00074]). Peter T N Memiah acknowledges CODESRIA; HISTP. Subas Neupane acknowledges partial support from the Competitive State Research Financing of the Expert Responsibility area of Tampere University Hospital. Shuhei Nomura acknowledges support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (18K10082). Alberto Ortiz acknowledges support by ISCIII PI19/00815, DTS18/00032, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009 Fondos FEDER, FRIAT, Comunidad de Madrid B2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM. These funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. George C Patton acknowledges support from a National Health & Medical Research Council Fellowship. Marina Pinheiro acknowledges support from FCT for funding through program DL 57/2016 -Norma transitA3ria. Alberto Raggi, David Sattin, and Silvia Schiavolin acknowledge support by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C Besta, Linea 4 -Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). Daniel Cury Ribeiro acknowledges support from the Sir Charles Hercus Health Research Fellowship -Health Research Council of New Zealand (18/111). Perminder S Sachdev acknowledges funding from the NHMRC Australia. Abdallah M Samy acknowledges support from a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. Milena M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (Contract No. 175087). Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez acknowledges institutional support from University of Applied and Environmental Sciences in Bogota, Colombia, and Carlos III Institute of Health in Madrid, Spain. Maria Ines Schmidt acknowledges grants from the Foundation for the Support of Research of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (IATS and PrInt) and the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam acknowledges a fellowship from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and Deakin University. Aziz Sheikh acknowledges support from Health Data Research UK. Kenji Shibuya acknowledges Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Joan B Soriano acknowledges support by Centro de Investigacion en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain. Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos acknowledges partial support from grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla acknowledges support from the National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship, Australia. Marcello Tonelli acknowledges the David Freeze Chair in Health Services Research at the University of Calgary, AB, Canada. ; "Peer Reviewed"
Poverty alleviation strategies in developing countries have long focused on the monetary aspects of this phenomenon by promoting "pro-growth" measures as the most reliable and credible way to eradicate extreme poverty. But given the complexity of poverty phenomenon and especially facing the insufficiency of results observed after more than two decades of funding efforts, one have witnessed in the early 2000s, a reorientation of the strategies to multidimensional considerations of poverty. Since that time, poverty is not apprehended only from income, but also from a set of elements related to the capacity of individuals, their potentialities as well as opportunities available to them. This new paradigm, based on the notion of poverty of capability, finds one of its operational translations into the intervention strategy of "Multifunctional Platforms Program" (MFP). This program is currently implemented in several Sub-Saharan Africa countries and is supported by many development actors given its potential role in achieving the MDGs. Intervening in a "Community Driven Development" approach, the MFP concept aims to provide elements of response to the multiple problems associated with the low energy access in rural areas. Through the development of the small units of energy production in the villages, the MFP program focuses on gender-based approach, women capacity building and economic empowerment. Although launched in the 1990s in Mali, this program had, hitherto, been subject to no rigorous impact evaluation while efficiency and results requirement become fundamental criteria in the selection and the funding of development programs. By adopting an evaluation gait, this thesis aims, first, to question the effectiveness of MFP program in the fight against poverty. The potential impact of the program on poverty theoretically pass through time saving on productive activities, which can be allocated to income generating activities (for women) and to human capital formation for children (health and education). For evaluating relevance and effectiveness of such intervention approach requires first to understand individual's time allocation behaviors and choices. Hence, the thesis is organized in two parts. The first two chapters are devoted to the estimation of the impact of MFP program on women's economic activity indicators and children's health and education indicators. Given the history and the design of program's implementation in Mali, two approaches are used, the pipeline approach and the Double-Difference. In each of these approaches, we identify two types of effects: the effect expected from the presence of program (Intent-To-Treat Effect) and the participation effect (Treatment Effect on Treated). The different estimations made in this chapter validate the time saving hypothesis associated with program utilization. Indeed, we find a very significant impact of program on time spent by women in economic activities. Also, we can identify a significant impact on the probability of schooling and learning time of school-age children. However, the impact on nutritional status indicators of children under five years is not conclusive because of the ambiguity of the direction of causality of these indicators with our various treatment variables. It appears that neither the time saved from the use of platforms nor the potential increase in mother's income are significantly favorable nutritional status of children. 9 In the second part, we prolong the analysis beyond the scope of impact evaluation in order to explore and better understand the mechanisms driving the choice of time allocation within the households. In the third chapter, we examine the relationship between schooling and child labor, which are two distinct choices of time allocation of children (between human capital formation and labor force for household productive needs). The chapter aims to empirically test the degree of trade-off between these two choices taking into account the living conditions of household. Our results show very strong negative correlation between decisions of schooling and child work, thus showing an inherent competition between these choices. Concerning the influence of living conditions on child labor, we find that, contrary to economic activities that appear very flexible to change in household wealth, child time allocation to non-economic work is much more rigid to this changes. By deepening analysis on gender disparities in access to education and in the demand of child labor, we show, by Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method that disparities between girls and boys in the allocation time are mainly due to unobservable parental preference for educating of boys rather than girls. In the last chapter presented as case study, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of women's time allocation. We find that women's decision to participate in the labor market depends heavily on the level of access to basic infrastructure. Although the economic rationality hypothesis in the allocation of time is not rejected (wage rate signal), we find that time allocation choices are strongly influenced by purely social and cultural considerations. The main results of this thesis support the idea on the importance of infrastructure in poverty alleviation. The positive effect of MFP program on indicators of economic activity of women and on children education justifies the relevance of the "MFP" initiative in the fight against poverty. The PTFM program is a development tool that plays a similar role to that of classical infrastructures. However, the positive impact detected here from MFP program is also subject to the complexity of time allocation choices in the households, particularly for women and children. It appears necessary to accompany the implementation of platforms by more stringent educational policies or conversely more incentives to permit that time savings obtained through access energy can be translated into more important choices for schooling particularly for girls. ; Les stratégies de lutte contre la pauvreté dans les pays en développement ont été longtemps axées sur les dimensions monétaires de celle-ci en prônant des mesures " pro-croissance " comme la voie la plus fiable et la plus crédible pour éradiquer l'extrême pauvreté. Mais compte tenu de la complexité du phénomène de pauvreté et surtout face à l'insuffisance des résultats constatée après plus de deux décennies d'efforts de financement, on a assisté, au début des années 2000, à une réorientation de l'approche de la pauvreté vers des considérations multidimensionnelles. Depuis lors, la pauvreté n'est plus appréhendée à partir seulement du revenu, mais aussi à partir d'un ensemble d'éléments relatifs aux capacités des individus, aux potentialités ainsi qu'aux opportunités à leur portée. Ce nouveau paradigme, fondé sur la notion de pauvreté des capacités, trouve une traduction opérationnelle dans la stratégie d'intervention du programme " Plateformes Multifonctionnelles " (PTFM). Ce programme est aujourd'hui implanté dans plusieurs pays d'Afrique Sub-Saharienne et soutenu par de nombreux acteurs du développement compte tenu de son rôle potentiel dans la réalisation des OMD. S'inscrivant dans une démarche de "Community Driven Development ", le concept PTFM vise à apporter un élément de réponse aux nombreuses problématiques associées à la faiblesse d'accès à l'énergie. A travers le développement de petites unités de production énergétique en milieu rural, le programme PTFM privilégie une approche fondée sur le genre, le renforcement des capacités et l'autonomisation des femmes. Bien que lancé dans les années 1990 au Mali, ce programme n'avait, jusque-là, fait l'objet d'aucune évaluation d'impact rigoureuse alors que l'exigence d'efficacité est un critère fondamental dans la sélection et le financement de programmes de développement. Partant ainsi d'une démarche d'évaluation, cette thèse vise d'abord à questionner l'efficacité du programme PTFM dans la lutte contre la pauvreté. L'impact potentiel du programme PTFM sur la pauvreté passe théoriquement par un gain de temps qui est ensuite alloué à des activités génératrices de revenus (pour les femmes) et à la formation du capital humain des enfants (santé et éducation). Evaluer la pertinence et l'efficacité d'une telle approche amène à s'interroger en amont sur la nature des comportements et les choix des individus en matière d'allocation du temps. La thèse est organisée en deux parties. Les deux premiers chapitres sont consacrés à l'estimation de l'impact du programme PTFM sur des indicateurs de l'activité économique des femmes et des indicateurs de santé et de scolarité des enfants. Compte-tenu de l'histoire de l'implantation du programme au Mali, deux approches sont utilisées, celle des entrées-échelonnées (pipeline approach) et celle de la Double-Différence. Dans chacune des approches, nous identifions deux types d'effets: l'effet espéré du programme (Intention-To-Treat Effect) et l'effet de la participation au programme (Treatment Effect on Treated). Les différentes estimations réalisées permettent de valider l'hypothèse de gain de temps lié à l'utilisation des plateformes. Nous trouvons, en effet un impact très significatif du programme sur le temps consacré par les femmes aux activités économiques. Nous pouvons également identifier un impact significatif sur la probabilité de scolarisation et le temps 7 d'apprentissage des enfants en âge scolaire. En revanche, l'impact sur les indicateurs du statut nutritionnel des enfants de moins de cinq ans n'est pas concluant du fait de l'ambiguïté du sens de la causalité de ces indicateurs avec nos différentes variables de traitement. Il apparait que ni le gain de temps tiré de l'utilisation des PTFM, ni l'accroissement potentiel de revenus des mères ne sont significativement favorables à l'état nutritionnel des enfants. Dans la seconde partie, nous prolongeons le cadre de l'évaluation pour mieux explorer les mécanismes de choix d'allocation de temps au sein des ménages. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous examinons la relation entre scolarisation et travail des enfants qui sont deux choix distincts d'allocation du temps des enfants entre formation du capital humain et main d'oeuvre pour des besoins productifs du ménage. Le chapitre vise à tester empiriquement le degré d'arbitrage entre ces deux choix compte-tenu du niveau de vie du ménage. Nos résultats montrent une corrélation très fortement négative entre les deux décisions, montrant ainsi une concurrence intrinsèque entre ces choix. S'agissant de l'influence du niveau de vie sur la demande de travail des enfants, nous trouvons que, contrairement aux activités économiques qui apparaissent très flexibles à la variation du niveau de vie du ménage, l'allocation de temps pour les travaux non-économiques est beaucoup plus rigide. Approfondissant la nature des disparités de genre dans l'accès à la scolarisation et la demande de travail des enfants, nous montrons, par une méthode de décomposition à la Oaxaca-Blinder que les disparités observées entre les filles et les garçons dans l'allocation du temps sont essentiellement dues à une préférence inobservable des parents pour la scolarisation des garçons plutôt que des filles. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous analysons les déterminants socioéconomiques de l'allocation du temps des femmes à partir d'une étude de cas. Nous trouvons que la décision des femmes de participer au marché du travail dépend très fortement du niveau d'accès aux infrastructures de base. Bien que l'hypothèse de rationalité économique dans l'allocation de temps ne soit pas rejetée (signal du taux de salaire), nous trouvons que les choix sont fortement influencés par des considérations purement sociales et culturelles. Les principaux résultats obtenus dans cette thèse accréditent l'importance des infrastructures dans la lutte contre la pauvreté. L'effet positif du programme PTFM sur les indicateurs d'activité économique des femmes et sur la scolarisation des enfants justifie la pertinence de l'initiative " PTFM " dans la lutte contre la pauvreté. Le programme PTFM est un outil de développement qui joue un rôle équivalent à celui des infrastructures. Cependant, l'impact positif du programme PTFM est subordonné à la complexité des choix d'allocation de temps dans les ménages, notamment en ce qui concerne les femmes et les enfants. Il apparaît nécessaire d'accompagner l'implantation des PTFM par des politiques éducatives plus contraignantes ou au contraire plus incitatives, afin que les gains de temps obtenus par l'accès à l'énergie mécanique puissent se traduire en des choix en faveur de la scolarisation plus importante des filles.